EPTNewbie Student Mafia XI
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
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n00bKing
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Meanwhile, a few questions: 1) What's the difference between shadowing and coaching? 2) I think I know what a Smurf is, but why is it called that? 3) What's a Hydra? Thanks! | ||
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n00bKing
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2) Oh, that would make good sense 3) I would guess that Hydras aren't allowed unless the host says otherwise? | ||
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n00bKing
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n00bKing
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Excited about the theme, though! | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 08 2015 05:25 Onegu wrote: Yeah Ill give descriptions. Making me be all not lazy and shit. You should be ashamed That's the weird thing, though! I'm not even ashamed! :D Thanks for the descriptions. I'm a little confused by the Rabbot though. If he's a scum Vigilante, does that mean that when he uses his ability, the scum team can attack 2 separate targets that night? (or even attack the same target twice, if they really wanted to?) | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 08 2015 06:46 Half the Sky wrote: Yep, kp from either vigilante is separate from default mafia kp. Sick! Anyone else starting to hope they draw a scum role in this game? <.< >.> | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 09 2015 04:25 Fecalfeast wrote: This is what I expect from town Isn't that always the level of play that is expected from Town, in a Newbie game? :D | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 12 2015 08:24 ruXxar wrote: I'm not voting on anyone yet, it's way too early for that. I'm gathering information to base my reads upon. I can only evaluate what I've read so far. Putting pressure on people is also a good thing, not necessarily because you believe they are scum, but to see how they react in tense situations. You're right, putting pressure on people can be a good thing, to see how they react. That's why you're wrong, it is not too early to vote. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 12 2015 08:45 batsnacks wrote: 5. Don't lie. RuXx is on the Newbie list. How likely do you think it is that an inexperienced Mafia player would lead off the game talking about how it's cool for Town players to lie? An inexperienced Mafia member might be timid about saying hardly anything, but could be especially timid about telling everyone that there's nothing wrong with telling lies, even if you're Town. That kind of reckless boldness is a little Town-indicative to me. Someone wants to vote against him because of his needless roleclaim, fine. But voting against him because he says it's fine to lie would be a stretch. And I think voting against him because he got caught answering a question directed at someone else (while explaining why you shouldn't answer questions directed at someone else) would be a stretch. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
Don’t babble. If you speak without having a clear goal in mind, you impede the town and decrease everyone else’s productivity. This paralyzes town analysis and decision-making and allows mafia to hide in the chaos Make posts and be active, yes. But don't make posts JUST so that you can say you've been active. If our posts are focused, and if we prioritize quality over quantity, it will give the bad guys less opportunity to shroud themselves with all the clutter. Game started on Page 7, and by Page 9, we were already violating this principle. On Page 9, Trfel is quoting his OWN posts from Page 8 and insisting that people counter his argument or follow his vote. Give people more than a couple of hours to show up and read and comment, before you ask why they aren't commenting and start repeating yourself. On Page 9, batsnacks posts some philosophy about the nature of danger. I'm sure he won't make a habit of posting things like that, because it's just filler, and filler is exactly what we don't need. I'm not going to spend the rest of the game keeping a running tally of all the times people are clogging up the thread with posts that are devoid of content. This is a one-shot thing. But I hope people will take the message to heart, because that's an excerpt from the Guide that I really think is spot on. And with that said, I'll be making a bunch of posts tonight before bed (including one with a vote!) but I'll try to make sure that each of them is saying or asking something worthwhile. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 12 2015 08:55 Trfel wrote: I disagree. He wouldn't dare say this as scum, unless he actually believes that it is acceptable and beneficial for town to lie. And as town, he would only say this if he actually believes it (yes, I see the irony). Either alignment, he's saying something that he believes to be true, so this isn't alignment indicative. It's not just about what he might believe to be true. It's the carefree nature with which he shared his beliefs. Even if a Mafia player thought it was in the Town's best interests for Townies to lie about certain things, he might still have reservations about saying so, because of how it could be perceived. RuXx stated his opinion/belief without fear of consequence (maybe without even considering the consequence). That doesn't sound like Newbie Scum to me. Newbie Scum: Cautious Newbie Blue Role: Somewhat Cautious Newbie Vanilla: Excited to try and scumhunt, without worrying too much about his own image in the game If RuXx is scum, then the Vanilla claim was a very nice touch, because it fits with the rest of his demeanor. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 12 2015 08:57 batsnacks wrote: I don't think it would be productive for town for me to defend ruxxar. He's a big boy. It's productive for Town for you to defend him, IF he is also Town. We can expect that at some point a few of the Newbies will need help with defending themselves (I could easily end up being one of them). And no, that shouldn't be your primary focus, but we all have a responsibility to try and prevent a mislynch when possible. Two posts later is when you told us all about repetition of danger. Was that productive for the Town? Side note: I don't know if there are any female players in the game, so if I refer to a "her" as a "him" please correct me. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 12 2015 11:11 geript wrote: IDK what moosy is honestly. I kinda think he's mafia because for the most part no one commented on what's like the easiest post to shit all over but I'm the only person who's seemingly have a thought about him. Don't care too much for this reasoning. This early in the game, it could easily have been the case that 2 of the 3 Mafia members hadn't even seen the post yet. Or the Mafia members could all be Newbies who don't even know what posts they should be looking to shit all over. At this stage, your top suspect(s) should be someone that you think is more likely to be Mafia than the average player. But it's a little crazy for you to already classify someone as being more likely to be Mafia than to be Town. There are 12 other players besides yourself. If you're Town, 9 of those other players are Town. Every other player is 75% likely to be Town. Someone says something suspicious, maybe you bump him down to 72%, and he's the most likely player to be Mafia now. Bumping someone below 50%? That should take something pretty serious. Much more dramatic than the kind of thing you're talking about. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 12 2015 11:16 Kickstart wrote: First several posts he seems quite concerned about the scum team! Why is this. This doesn't seem to be normal new town player concerns to me. They weren't. He's pretty clearly just joking around. Kickstart wrote: Then there was his answering question slip which has been the topic of much debate. It is really weird because I said I don't like people answering questions directed at others, Trfel asks me why, and then ruxx answers -______-. I think a townie would read that and be wary of answering because they see me saying that answering for others is a bad thing. My take on it is that ruxx maybe saw an easy opportunity to seem helpful and didn't even pay attention to the interaction going on there. Firstly, nothing has been the topic of "much debate" yet, when the game has only been going for a few hours. Secondly, I still maintain that it is the scum player that would be more "wary of answering." It is a Town player that would "see an easy opportunity to seem helpful" and act on it, without worrying about the "interaction going on there." It's also worth noting that RuXx purposely furthered the conversation about Town players lying, AFTER he saw that some other players were reacting negatively to what he had said. If a Newbie scum player saw that what he had said was causing some raised eyebrows, he might clam up or change the subject, to get beyond the comment that had raised suspicion, and bury it. Instead, he challenges the people who expressed a contradictory viewpoint, which ensures that no readers who come along later will gloss over what he's said. You could try to say that he didn't realize it was a controversial statement when he first made it. But even after it was clear to him (based on the posts of other players) that it was a controversial statement, he stuck to it, and called more attention to it. Again, I feel like this is boldness you would seldom see from an inexperienced scum player. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 12 2015 11:22 Oatsmaster wrote: Ì wanna lynch kickstart man. That case is forcing a read hard. Yes, it's forcing a read hard. But I don't know that scum Kickstart would have much motivation to force a read that hard, early in Day 1. He can't be pushing RuXx to try and defend a mafia teammate that is in vote trouble, because no one was really in vote trouble. So the mafia barely cares who the Day 1 lynch will be. It's not like he's afraid of RuXx as a player, when he's on the Newbie list. And it's not like he's TOO afraid that RuXx is a power role that is gonna wreck his plans, when RuXx is a Newbie that insta-claimed Vanilla. (This possibility is more likely than the first, but still not real likely.) I don't see a reason for scum Kickstart to cause a stir, and draw attention to himself, by trying to make sure that RuXx is the Day 1 lynch. Oatsmaster wrote: Stop asking people to do your work for you. If you really think that your previous town and scumgames have a huge difference in the way you post, then show some examples if you want to use that as a reason for people to townread you. On this, however, I completely agree with you. It isn't reasonable for Kickstart to expect people he's never played with before (who might even be playing here for the first time) to go read his previous games. Kickstart wrote: Pretty much done interacting with you. Yeah, this attitude is not helpful, obviously. If you're Town, there's a pretty good (statistical) likelihood that Oatsmaster is a teammate of yours. If he reads you wrong, then he's making more work for you, because you have to help him overcome it. Oh well, too bad. Help him overcome it. Kickstart wrote: I asked people to do no work. If someone scum reads me for my general posting or the way I play, then THEY should read my fucking game history because they have no fucking reason to be suspicious of my posting style or playstyle if they don't know how I normally post or play. They aren't comparing your play to a "baseline reading" of how YOU normally play. They're comparing it to a baseline reading of how Town and Mafia players normally play. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 12 2015 14:39 WaveofShadow wrote: Scum tier: Geript, noobking 2 ez Keep working!  | ||
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n00bKing
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n00bKing
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On June 12 2015 16:29 Oatsmaster wrote: well you are telling everyone how to do shit so you mustve had some experience. On a scale of 1-10, how experienced are you. Everything is relative. I don't have any context for how experienced I am vs. yourself, or vs. the average player in this game, or vs. the average player on these forums. But if I tried to answer your question...3? 4, maybe? | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 12 2015 16:38 Kickstart wrote: @king Who are you suspicious of at the moment, who do you think could be scum? Some players are almost impossible to judge so far. I think FakePlants has been a virtual non-participant to this point, and I think boxerfred has been a literal non-participant (I do not remember seeing one post from him yet). I voted against batsnacks. 1) I can understand him being upset about ruXxar's roleclaim, but I don't get using it as the basis for voting against him. 2) When I tried to engage him in discussion about the likely motivations for ruXxar's actions, batsnacks withdrew, basically telling me that it isn't his job to help any other player defend themselves. 3) I think his "quick and easy how to play town guide" contains at least one bit of bad advice, and maybe more. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 12 2015 17:46 Rels wrote: Hahaha But really this post is exactly what you're saying not to do. Agree with oats completly: I don't think that's a post you want to be agreeing with. We should not disparage the idea of posts that give advice, most especially in a Newbie game. I certainly hope that the other Town players will give me some good advice, at some point in the game. And if they aren't scumhunting in that same moment, it won't make good advice any less good. Kickstart has said (and then re-emphasized) that: "the #1 goal of town should always be to show that they are town through their actions, and coming in a close second is helping to find scum." Firstly, I'm not sure I agree with him. If I could only look Town or find Scum, I would probably rather find Scum. If I then get mislynched (because I didn't convince enough people that I was Town) then the work I did finding Scum could still get that player lynched soon afterward. But what's more relevant to this conversation is: IF looking Town is more important than finding Scum, then how does one show themselves to be Town WITHOUT scumhunting? Well, one good way is definitely "by giving helpful advice." On June 12 2015 16:45 Rels wrote: Why are you defending him so early. This was explained before you got here. If you read the whole thread before you post, then you won't end up clogging the pages with questions that were already answered. There's some "advice" for you. | ||
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n00bKing
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Saying "don't claim your role" is far too much of an overgeneralization. It doesn't account for the player's role, and it doesn't account for timing. And there's at least 1 Town role in this setup that I think should probably claim, and should probably do so early in the game. I am also not sure it's wise to be telling Newbies to find only one player they think is Mafia. You're not always going to be able to convince people that your target is a good lynch. Having a secondary target could help you inspire people to make a lynch that would also be good. Having two suspects doesn't always mean you're relying on unflipped associations. Looking for more than one target helps a player keep an open mind. Rules 2 and 3 of batsnacks' advice are basically "a guide on how to tunnel." Again, there's nothing wrong with giving advice. But I think his advice is bad. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 12 2015 21:16 batsnacks wrote: This isn't a very good case. I didn't say it was a "very good case." It's very early in the game for there to be a good case. Are you proud of your case against the player you voted for? What I did was give reasons for why I am voting against you. Do you want people to stop explaining their votes? [b]batsnacks wrote:[/b ]if you understand why I'm upset about rux's claim then you don't have a problem with me voting him. I'm not sure why you said you do have a problem with me voting rux if you understand that the claim hurts town and that hurting town makes me upset. I can understand why you're upset and still be able to have a problem with the vote. It's a Newbie game. Someone doing something that hurts Town doesn't make them scum. Additionally, IF he's scum, then his claim doesn't actually hurt the Town. It only hurts the Town if HE'S Town. So you can't say "I'm voting against him because his claim hurts the Town" without believing he is Town. And if you believe he's Town...then... | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 12 2015 22:17 Rels wrote: I feel that you're spending a lot of times giving "advices" and defending people. That's it. I understand what you're saying. And trust me, if there were more people sounding suspicious to me, I would be talking about that. But so far, batsnacks is the only player that has more than one post that rubs me the wrong way. People like Moosy and FakePlants have only made one post apiece that struck me odd. So I've been talking some about batsnacks, since that's who I'm voting against. But in the absence of other good targets, I thought it would be better to give some advice and defend some people, than to do nothing. If no one here has played the game with me before, you don't want me lurking. It's better to have me on the record with some opinions than not. Rels wrote: Anyway n00bking, all you're saying makes sense. You give good advices and your defenses are good. But two things: - you should let newbies defend themselves, espacially early day 1. I defended non-newbies too.  I was just concerned that in a Newbie game, a bandwagon on a bad lynch target could get rolling pretty easily, if no one points out flaws in the reasoning being used against that player. But okay, I will let people do more of their own work. Thanks for the "advice." | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 12 2015 22:32 batsnacks wrote: Anyway... I don't feel like talking about this anymore. I changed my mind noobking you can find 2 scum reads. Keep your vote on me and find another another mafia. I don't think it's a good sign that whether or not the player you were voting against is scum is something you "don't feel like talking about anymore." But anyway, as far as finding another lynch target... damdred is not really participating much more than boxerfred was. So far, scott is not sounding as suspicious as FakePlants did. So I'll bump him down my list a little. I do not care for the tone of Sulfurus' posts. He would probably be my #2 lynch right now. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 13 2015 01:04 ruXxar wrote: That's not what I asked. I asked why you read him as scum in the first place. Continue to think posts from ruXxar sound like they came from a Town player. And not because this one has anything to do with me, but because he is willing to fearlessly grill WaveofShadow for more information, when (based on post count, and the game history in his profile) Wave could be one of the most experienced players in this game. When ruXxar's early boldness drew him a couple of votes, he didn't decide to change gears. He's willing to go toe-to-toe with anyone, to get the answers he wants. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 13 2015 03:08 geript wrote: Oooh Damdred replaced in. That guy's town 100%. ezpz. Is this just a joke, based on your history with the player? (eg, "damdred never rolls scum") Or are you actually trying to say something here? | ||
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n00bKing
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I don't know what 3P means either. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 13 2015 05:34 batsnacks wrote: Bolded isn't true at all and you should know it isn't true because you were in the last one. I was a shining paragon of all things that are good and town in the last newbie game. And I think it did something to be because I just can't make it work this game. Newbie X is the only game I've read on the site. So for anyone that hasn't read it, and is wondering which of Sulfurus/batsnacks is accurate here...I would not go so far as to say that batsnacks was the "shining paragon" he mentions, but he definitely did NOT play that game (in which he was Town) the same as he is playing this one. He was more invested in that game, more interested in that game, and especially more useful in that game. And since he was killed well before the game ended, I don't think he could reasonably say that he's apathetic in this one because of some sort of mental fatigue caused by the last one. I don't see much of anything to indicate that batsnacks and Sulfurus are teammates. But I also don't see much that indicates either of them are Town. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 13 2015 05:48 batsnacks wrote: What do I do if I don't have any scum reads? In a sense almost no one has scum reads because I'm town and the only people pushing stuff are pushing me. Here's would lynch: 3)MoosyDoosy 4)Sulfurus 7)Fake)Plants 2)batsnacks 3)Trfel here's idk can't form opinion: 6)damdred 1)Rels 4)WaveofShadow 5)geript 5)ruXxar Here's would not lynch: 2)n00bKing 1)Kickstart 6)Oatsmaster So you are 4th on your own lynch list? lol If you have a PM saying you are Town, and still would be content to lynch yourself, I guess your posts must look REALLY scummy to you! If I have any hesitation about seeing you lynched, it would be that I actually like how a lot (not all, but a lot) of your list shakes out, including your placement near the top. batsnacks wrote: help me not get lynched. Thx I would help! But some dude named batsnacks told me to let other players defend themselves. :D | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 13 2015 05:52 MoosyDoosy wrote: Sulfurus looks easiest if you want to make a case. geript might pass but idk. They both have 1 vote so you just need to persuade 2 more. tbh, I'm deciding between either Sulfurus or geript so help me out by making a case. Wait, really? Just a few posts earlier, you were "wondering whether to cast between batsnacks or Sulfurus." Suddenly batsnacks drops so low in suspicion for you that you're asking him to help you by making a case against geript? | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 13 2015 07:11 MoosyDoosy wrote: Um...where did I say I suspected batsnacks? I was always making a case against geript. The part I put in quotation marks should have been sufficient to jog your memory. I don't think you want to make a habit of forcing people to go back and dig up YOUR posts so that you can remember what YOU said. The full post was: On June 13 2015 05:19 MoosyDoosy wrote: Either way, I'll doubt geript will be voted for this round. Right now I'm wondering whether to cast between batsnacks or Sulfurus. The thing is that Sulfurus has contributed little and some of his posts have been questionably empty. And then just a few posts later, you are asking batsnacks to help you out by making a case against either Sulfurus or geript (when geript, who you say is the one you were "always making a case against", was unmentioned in your earlier post). | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 13 2015 07:13 batsnacks wrote: n00bking why are you still voting me is there something you're confused about or are you just too lazy to move your vote? I'm confused about why you expect people to think you're Town? Can you help with that? | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 13 2015 07:26 batsnacks wrote: Okay. Well nope, I continue to agree with you that you're a reasonably good lynch target for Day 1. Also, you're aware that the player you're voting against now was not anywhere on your "would lynch" list, an hour ago? Trfel really turned your whole world upside down that quickly?Well you haven't given me anything that I haven't responded to and you haven't brought anything new to the ongoing case on me in a long time so... I'm just assuming that you stopped scum reading me and forgot to switch your vote. Or you haven't decided who to switch to yet. | ||
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n00bKing
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I really don't see any excuse for players not having a vote on anyone, this deep into the phase. Trfel does not have his vote on anyone, despite batsnacks sheeping his case against Rels. Sulfurus does not have his vote on anyone. Moosy/Scott/Damdred have not even posted in the voting thread yet this game. Your vote has power. Use it! | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 13 2015 07:56 MoosyDoosy wrote: eh, not wishy washy. I initially thought that Rels was a townie and didn't suspect him. What Trfel says is very interesting and would be a very hard read on him but I don't feel it's concrete enough to vote for him right off the bat. It does raise some yellow flags around him tho. This is STILL wishy-washy. Side note: I think the fact that Rels jumped right into the thread and started responding to posts in order (without reading the entire thread first) is slightly Town-indicative. I don't think it's a GOOD habit to have, but I don't think it's something a Mafia player would do. And I could tell that's what he had done even before he admitted that's what he had done. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 13 2015 08:02 batsnacks wrote: K well I have the longest filter now and anyone who thinks mafia batsnacks has the biggest filter d1 is a silly goose Approximately how many times have you had a mafia role in these games? | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 13 2015 08:20 MoosyDoosy wrote: Lol, if you think a slight change in opinion is wishy washy then I guess I can never change my opinion or stance in the future. I wouldn't mind if your opinion changes over the course of a Phase. But your position was changing over the course of ONE post. It's your fence-straddling that is unappealing to me. People want Town players to take a stand on issues, and try to avoid taking both sides. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 13 2015 08:25 Rels wrote: Fuck I was making a case on you moosy but reading your filter a lot of my points are false. Like I was saying you kept repeating that you were newb. Actually it's not true. I still have two things left in my suspicion of you, so could you please comment on them. First point You don't take any stand. Not against me nor anyone else. I guess he is sorta/kinda suggesting geript as a lynch? But if you think Moosy doesn't take any stands in this thread, he especially doesn't take any in the voting thread. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 13 2015 08:26 MoosyDoosy wrote: ^ As a note, it was not n00bking who first defended ruXxar as townie, it was me. I guess you can only be referring to this blurb here: MoosyDoosy wrote: And @Trfel, can you please share why you're suspecting @ruXxar? I would have to agree with ruXxar's point that it is generally annoying when someone answers a question directed at you. If that's your idea of defending someone, then I guess you defend people with the same ferocity that you pressure them with! Planning on casting a vote this game? | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 13 2015 08:40 Trfel wrote: 1. Of course Rels says he was making posts as he read. The fact is that we have no way to verify this, and that there is no good town motivation to do this. I agree with you that there is no good town motivation to do that. But do you also agree with me that there is actually scum motivation to NOT do that? | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 13 2015 08:57 MoosyDoosy wrote: ^ I'm talking about this. You clearly haven't read the thread. You said you defended him first. The posts of yours that you just quoted are several hours after mine. Anyway, I'm not going to continue bickering with you about this, as I do not find the discussion to be productive. You said what you said, I showed it to be false. And now I'm moving on. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 13 2015 09:03 batsnacks wrote: Yeah you're totally wrong and that is points against you. The only time I posted nonsense that game was at night and that's because I was the cop and did not want to get killed. Definitely not true. I expect he is talking about this steaming pile here, which was posted early in Day 1, and not at night: batsnacks wrote: above is THE JOYOUS, LAKE below is KEEPING STILL, MOUNTAIN Influence. Success. When a weak element is above (the lake) and a strong element is below (the mountain), their powers attract each other so that they unite. This brings about success, for all success depends on the effect of mutual attraction Perseverance furthers. By keeping still within while experiencing joy without, one can prevent the joy from going to excess and hold it within proper bounds. This is the meaning of, "Perseverance furthers." To take a maiden to wife brings good fortune Heaven and earth attract each other and thus all creatures come into being. From the attractions they exert we can learn the nature of all beings in heaven and on earth. A lake on the mountain: The image of influence. Thus the superior man encourages people to approach him By his readiness to receive them. A mountain with a lake on its summit is stimulated by the moisture from the lake. It has this advantage because its summit does not jut out as a peak but is sunken. The image counsels that the mind should be kept humble and free, so that it may remain receptive to good advice. People soon give up counseling a man who thinks that he knows everything better than anyone else. The influence shows itself in the calves of the legs. Misfortune. Tarrying brings good fortune. In movement, the calf of the leg follows the foot; by itself it can neither go forward nor stand still. Since the movement is not self-governed, it bodes ill. One should wait quietly until one is impelled to action by a real influence. Then one remains uninjured. Your philosophical post about danger in this game looks a bit like a forced attempt to duplicate the same kind of nonsense you kicked off the last game with (since it was very recent, and people will remember you were Town). Meanwhile, you never answered my question about approximately how many times you've been assigned a scum role in these games. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 13 2015 11:22 batsnacks wrote: If I'm still leading in votes in approx 12 hours I am going to make this thread chaos. Goodnight! Very excited to see batsnacks try to blow up the thread. But what I don't like about this post is that I thought it might kill activity in the thread. If I had been voting against anyone but batsnacks, this post would make me want to switch to voting against him, and then just...wait 12 hours. And "just waiting 12 hours" is probably not what we should be doing on Day 1. Hopefully posts will continue to trickle in here and there. | ||
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n00bKing
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At this stage of a Day 1, I'm more used to seeing a smattering of votes on some other miscellaneous players too. Maybe partially because the scum team doesn't want to have all their votes in one place, so they fan out some (and maybe a random Townie or two gets tunneled on their respective targets, and won't budge, even though no one else has any interest in following along). Theory: This situation makes it pretty likely that one of the two players receiving votes is actually scum, and that we don't have a Town vs. Town situation for our two vote leaders. The scum team has not been able to fan out their votes, because they've needed "all hands on deck" to make sure that the scum player doesn't take a runaway lead in the voting. Conclusion: Even though there's a lot of time left in the Phase, we may not want to introduce a third lynch target, and should instead stick to trying to pick between these two (since, if the Theory is correct, one of them would flip Red). Thoughts? Does the Theory seem reasonable, or is the Situation more likely just an odd coincidence? | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 13 2015 15:22 Trfel wrote: There is some scum motivation not to do that, but there's a lot more scum motivation TO do it. A whole lot more than the town motivation, anyway. Please explain further. What is the scum motivation to do that? Trfel wrote: I know you are scumreading batsnacks. What do you think about Sulfurus, Rels, and scott31337? This should help a little: n00bKing wrote: So far, scott is not sounding as suspicious as FakePlants did. So I'll bump him down my list a little. I do not care for the tone of Sulfurus' posts. He would probably be my #2 lynch right now. Those trends have continued. Sulfurus remains a Top 2 lynch target for me, and I would be tempted to switch my vote to him, except that I have to stay on batsnacks so he will blow up the thread. FakePlants had made a bad post and then lurked. But now that he's been replaced, the lurking can't really be seen as suspicious anymore. Couple of things I like about his replacement: 1) Scott's first post in the thread says he's not liking me, due to wordy posts and fluff. But less than 30 minutes later, he says that he likes Oat's post about how I look Townie, for continuing my posting style even after being warned about it. And he says that "makes a lot of sense." This quick turnaround looks to me like "stream of consciousness" type stuff, as he makes his way through the thread, rather than prepared statements. 2) All those posts from Scott come pretty quickly after he is placed in the game. He wouldn't have had much opportunity to confer with scum teammates before deciding which direction to go on things. 3) His reads list looks pretty legit to me. I'm not especially interested in lynching the people he claims to trust, and all the people I feel like I should be lynching are people he's willing to lynch as well. This won't be a big deal to every player, but it counts for something with me. Rels? Dunno, man. He looks a lot to me like he did in Newbie X, when he was Town. But some of the veterans in this game are seeing stuff from him they don't like. I'm not ready to try and pass judgment on Rels, I'll just have to keep watching him. | ||
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n00bKing
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What's the prevailing philosophy around here on whether (or when) Carl should roleclaim? Seems to me that if he remains hidden, there is all kinds of potential for disaster, and maybe even moreso in a Newbie game. So does someone with that type of role usually roleclaim? If not, why not? And if so, is it usually done Day 1, or not until after Night 1 begins? I can see some distinct advantages of him claiming during Day 1, instead of waiting for Night. If the claim goes uncountered (and comes from anyone that doesn't have a bunch of votes stacked up on them) then we have a largely confirmed Townie. Anyone who had previously voted against that player gets a small strike against them, for barking up the wrong tree. And Carl's vote in the batsnacks/Sulfurus debate takes on extra weight, because although Carl could still be incorrect, at least we could expect that he's not incorrect on purpose. I feel like this topic should have probably been raised a while ago, but I kept waiting and waiting, to see who would bring it up, so that I could award them some Town Cred just for mentioning it. (Guess I have to give the Town Cred to myself now? w00t?) Anyway, interested in hearing other opinions on this. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 13 2015 17:38 Rels wrote: Thinking about it I agree with it. There is no good reason to stay hidden if you're Carl. My reasonning is: - if you're a someone most people sees at townie, you take the risk of killing the doctor - if you're someone people are suspicious of, you take the risk of killing the cop or the vigi It's even worse than that. If Dr. Weird targets Carl, then it looks to me like they would kill each other, just like Frylock and Carl would kill each other. And yes, Carl would also kill Allen and Neil. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 13 2015 18:17 ruXxar wrote: I disagree. There are 3 Mafia and 2 town roles. I believe that reducing kill power from 2 to 1 is the single most important factor in us winning the game. This would buy us so much time that we should have overwhelming odds of winning. The chance of targeting Carl is very low. I'm ok with taking the odds of a power role checking Carl if it means we increase our chances of killing mafia. Does knowing that there is only 1 mafia attack each Night change your position? Also, where are you getting that there are "2 town roles?" I see absolutely nothing that would indicate there are 8 VTs and 2 non-Vanilla Town roles, if that is what you are saying. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 13 2015 18:19 Oatsmaster wrote: I think it's pretty unlikely we have a PGO. It isn't less likely than having any other Town role, unless the Host is willfully manipulating the setup. Oatsmaster wrote: Noob, generally people don't discuss blue roles or speculate on the setup because it's easy for mafia to do and it doesn't help us find mafia at all. So spend your time finding mafia, not town pr. If "pr" is supposed to mean "power role" then Carl is definitely NOT that. Something with tremendous potential to be a self-destructive liability for the Town, that's what he is. From something I found with a Google search called "Mafia Wiki": As a general rule, PGO is an anti-Town role because it is more likely to kill Town power roles than scum in all cases except when there are no other Town power roles For us to keep Carl hidden essentially means we don't understand basic math. And that's without even considering the benefits of looking at which players may have voted against him before he claimed, and knowing that his vote is most likely coming from a Town player that has good intentions. Even if you don't put much weight on those advantages, keeping Carl in hiding is already a mistake anyway. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 13 2015 18:29 ruXxar wrote: can we get confirmation on whether there is 2 or 1 kp? Please try not to get mod-killed. The rules very clearly state that you are not allowed to make a post like that: All questions to the hosts must be sent as PMs, do not ask in the thread. | ||
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On June 13 2015 21:51 batsnacks wrote: That isn't a scum read. That is me being concerned that ruxxar and n00b are making mistakes that could cost town the game. They should have a dialog with me before the lynch because I'm town and I can convince them I'm town, or at the very least not the best lynch today. Okay? We're waiting. Let's have a dialogue. Convince me that you're Town. Again, I was very excited to see you follow through on your promise to destroy the thread, if you stayed in the vote lead. And the scummiest thing Rels has done this entire game is panic after that promise, and start reading your posts in other games so that he could manufacture a flimsy excuse to move his vote off of you. As a Town player, I couldn't WAIT for you to blow up the thread. But if I were scum, that idea might be pretty concerning to me. And I might try to figure out a way to get you out of the vote lead, so you'll shut up. batsnacks wrote: I completely disagree that most of what I've posted is useless I think I have easily contributed more to this game than anyone else Clicking the "Post" button a bunch of times does not mean you are making worthwhile contributions. You keep yapping about your long filter, but NOTHING kicks, fights, bites and screams more than a mafia player that is in vote trouble without there being concrete evidence behind it. Staring down the noose MIGHT spur an inactive Town player into action, but not nearly as much (or as consistently) as it spurs mafia players into action. You talk like people are voting against you only because of your poor open, but that they aren't reassessing bases on the posts you've made since. I've read every post you've made. There isn't anything that counteracts your poor open. You've been told this by multiple players already, so it's not like I am blind to what those others see. | ||
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On June 14 2015 04:05 MoosyDoosy wrote: Actually, Onegu said that we could ask in green right afterwards. But, ya know, mod is clear Mafia for contradiction right? YES, I absolutely agree with you. There is no way that those two perspectives can co-exist in the same mind. Lynching him will basically GUARANTEE us a good result. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 13 2015 23:03 ruXxar wrote: Reading through geripts filter I get a bad vibe. [snip] Then he gets into an argument with waveofshadow who also picks up on his inconsistency in alignment on moosy. damdred wrote: Geript yea I didn't like his filter parts of it seemed pointless, abd his argument with wave just read weird to me For what it's worth, if you want to assign blame in the Geript vs. Wave argument, it was completely Wave's fault. I have read that argument three times (in context, NOT just by using their filters) and Wave is just twisting Geript's words to make it look like he said something he didn't. But I didn't scumread Wave for it, because it looks to me like he genuinely misunderstood. I didn't feel like Wave was intentionally trying to frame Geript, he just looked confused. | ||
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On June 14 2015 04:05 WaveofShadow wrote: Also random point? Where is Kickstart? Guy blasts out the gate and was the first to vote the likely lynch for today but I don't remember him doing anything in a while. Yeah, I was thinking the same thing last night. Kickstart was probably the early post-count leader, but then disappeared for the second half of the Phase. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 14 2015 04:13 ruXxar wrote: Knowing that there is only 1 kp, then i believe there is a case both for and against the PGO to reveal himself. Here are my scenarios for and against : For: The PGO is a weak town player that might get cop checked. The PGO is one of the strongest town players and likely to be targeted by the medic. Against: A semi strong town player is the PGO, but he's not the strongest. Medic will most likely protect the perceived strongest town player. The mafia knowing this will go for some of the second strongest targets they know probably won't be saved by the medic. In this case it's beneficial for the PGO to not reveal himself. That's pretty interesting, considering you had just said this: ruXxar wrote: After reducing kill power to 1 I would agree that Carl revealing himself is a good play. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 14 2015 04:32 Trfel wrote: Rels on Fake)Plants/scott31337 (referring to Fake)Plants) I don't understand this at all. He basically says that he has no reason to scumread scott31337 any more, but doesn't townread him in his list post. And then, when geript (who he was voting for at this time) mentions a reason that he moved scott31337 to null (but says that he doesn't remember the reason), Rels is extremely interested and justifies this by referring back to his initial read on Fake)Plants. The read he already said has changed. He's just jumping on something that's there, and it's hard for me to see him really trying to figure out scott31337's alignment. This post is pitiful. Like, PITIFUL. You're completely disregarding the whole reason Rels thought FakePlants was scum to begin with. Everything in Rels' thought progression on FakePlants/scott makes sense. I still say the scummiest thing Rels has done is manufacturing an excuse to pull his vote off of batsnacks, after batsnacks threatened to blow up the thread if he stayed in the vote lead. Now, Oats made the same mistake (of pulling his vote off batsnacks) but at least he did so after having a long back and forth with batsnacks. Instead of just miraculously convincing himself using something from out of the thread. We HAD this neat, clean Situation: n00bKing wrote: Situation: 11 players have votes in place, and 2 players are not voting. All 11 of the votes are on either batsnacks or Sulfurus. No one has a vote on anyone else. At this stage of a Day 1, I'm more used to seeing a smattering of votes on some other miscellaneous players too. Maybe partially because the scum team doesn't want to have all their votes in one place, so they fan out some (and maybe a random Townie or two gets tunneled on their respective targets, and won't budge, even though no one else has any interest in following along). Theory: This situation makes it pretty likely that one of the two players receiving votes is actually scum, and that we don't have a Town vs. Town situation for our two vote leaders. The scum team has not been able to fan out their votes, because they've needed "all hands on deck" to make sure that the scum player doesn't take a runaway lead in the voting. Conclusion: Even though there's a lot of time left in the Phase, we may not want to introduce a third lynch target, and should instead stick to trying to pick between these two (since, if the Theory is correct, one of them would flip Red). And somehow we've now instead got this clusterfuck: Onegu wrote:Oatsmaster (0): Kickstart ruXxar (0): Trfel Kickstart (0): Sulfurus Sulfurus (5): Kickstart, geript, batsnacks, WaveOfShadow, scott11331373737373771317371373, MoosyDoosy Batsnacks (3): n00bKing, ruXxar, Oatsmaster, sulfurus, Rels, Trfel scott113133373737131731371313713137 (0): Rels Geript (2): WaveofShadow, Rels, Oatsmaster, Rels (3): batsnacks, Trfel, Damdred, Geript *sigh* | ||
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I guess the strikethroughs don't carry over in the copy/paste, but you get the idea, if you just look at the numbers in parentheses | ||
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On June 14 2015 04:56 ruXxar wrote: In my first post I was just taking into consideration that mafia with 1 kp perform 1 target action per night and that town has 2 with cop and medic. It wasn't until my last post that i thought about it more deeply and tried to figure out the real scenarios. I'm also not used to mafia with more roles than mafia, cop, medic, vigilante and town. A lot of my thinking right now is automatically based around just having those roles in the game, since that's what i've had the most exposure to. I'm trying to rectify this. You're moving in the opposite direction of what would make sense, though. You assumed the Town had only Cop and Doctor. And said that once the Mafia was down to 1kp, it makes sense for Carl to claim. Now, nevermind the fact that a discussion OF the Carl role ALREADY destroys your notion that the Town only has Cop and Doctor as its non-vanilla roles. When you add in Dr. Weird and Frylock as additional Town roles that could be killed by Carl (both of which would kill Carl at the same time!) it becomes way MORE obvious that Carl needs to claim. Instead, when you thought about it more, you start to see a case for and against him claiming? That doesn't make any sense. Please make sense. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 14 2015 05:36 ruXxar wrote: According to this, it's possible that the 3 mafia can have these roles: Role blocker, rolecop, godfather, vigilante and goon. Or does it mean that there are 3 mafia PLUS possibly 5 other roles that are not mafia, but win when mafia wins? Please help me understand. It's the first one. There are 3 mafia, who can have any of those 5 roles. It looks to me like 2 mafia could even have the same 1 of those 5 roles, weird as that sounds. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 14 2015 05:11 Trfel wrote: I have no clue where you get this idea. First, it the reason that Rels thought that Fake)Plants was scum isn't important for this argument. Rels himself said that the reason is invalidated by scott31337's replacement, and then he kept jumping back on it whenever opportunity presented itself, despite saying that scott31337's posts weren't scummy. Please explain how this makes sense. Of course the reason Rels thought FakePlants was scum is important. Where did Rels say that reason was "invalidated" by scott replacing FakePlants? That reason doesn't have anything to do with scott. It only has to do with what the host said and what FakePlants said. NOTHING else. | ||
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On June 14 2015 05:38 batsnacks wrote: Here is geript saying he will sheep Trfel's amazing case on Rels: + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2015 04:54 geript wrote: Actually, I think I'm going to sheep too. Here is sulfurus's bold post defending Rels: + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2015 05:00 Sulfurus wrote: I didn't want to say anything about trfel before because his vote on Bats was protecting me but he is just straight up wrong on Rels. He makes a post here where he says rels made a bad town read on ruXxar even though (IMO) ruXx is one of the towniest players in the game. He also keeps saying that Rels is tunneled on Plant's only post and he basically dismisses the rest of his filter when in fact it's really good and shows a town who is focused on trying to solve the game. Here is me saying sulfurus's post is bold, I ask why mafia would post such a thing: + Show Spoiler + Here geript explains that sometimes mafia like to defend town poorly. geript knows that Rels is town, yet he would sheep Trfel's case on Rels: + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2015 05:08 geript wrote: It's not uncommon for mafia to defend town badly. Especially newer mafia. How is any of that supposed to be difficult to explain? Geript has at times thought Sulfurus looked scummy. And he has at times thought Rels looked scummy. Most recently, his vote has been on Rels, so that is presumably his top scum read. You ask geript why Sulfurus would defend Rels if Sulfurus were scum. geript at this point participates in a discussion that PRE-ASSUMES Sulfurus is scum. And he hypothesizes that Sulfurus could be defending a Town player poorly. This would require him to be wrong about Rels being scum. I see nothing wrong with geript acknowledging the possibility that he could be wrong about Rels being scum, and answering a hypothetical question about why Sulfurus would act as he has if HE were scum. This is almost as hollow as the reasoning Trfel used against Rels. Not quite as hollow. But almost. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 14 2015 06:01 ruXxar wrote: I'm not sure who takes priority between roleblocker and PGO, but lets assume that the PGO takes priority. I would assume the opposite. If a PGO gets roleblocked, he can't kill anyone. You can ask the question, but I don't see how this is really debatable. On June 14 2015 06:01 ruXxar wrote: From this I just realized I can't really see a clear reason why he should or shouldnt reveal himself, it all gets a bit too complicated for me. *brain fried* Well just trust me then, because it's not too complicated for me. | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 14 2015 06:09 MoosyDoosy wrote: That's a lot of assumptions about what geript is thinking which he can only explain. His initial reaction afterwards leads us to believe it was a slip on his part and that the above wasn't what he was thinking. He said it was one of his dumbest posts ever which leads us to believe that he did still think that Rels + Sulfurus was scum at that moment and he contradicted himself there. So getrip kinda just killed your argument there by himself. If only geript can explain, then have him explain. Ask him if what I assumed about his line of thinking is correct or not. And he did NOT say that was one of his dumbest posts ever. He said batsnacks' argument against him was one of the dumbest posts ever. (And it's probably not, but it's one of the dumbest posts this game.) | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 14 2015 06:16 ruXxar wrote: If you are town with a role you should claim it now if you want to make a defense. Probably agree. This will neuter his role if he is Allen or Neil. But it's still better than lynching those roles. | ||
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I assume we're going to have to stick with the result (because I doubt the Host would let us go back and change votes after seeing the flip) but....yeah. | ||
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The deadline for each cycle will be 16:00 MDT (-06:00). That's what I see in the rules. And that matches with what the vote count posts show. If I log out, it still says the same thing, so it's not like it's customizing it based on my location or something. | ||
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On June 14 2015 07:21 n00bKing wrote: That's what I see in the rules. And that matches with what the vote count posts show. If I log out, it still says the same thing, so it's not like it's customizing it based on my location or something. Whoa, wait a second. That does NOT match what the vote count posts show. They show 17:00 MDT, which is what that post USED to say. Someone changed the deadline after the game started, is what it looks like. | ||
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On June 14 2015 07:37 Damdred wrote: Also day post is at 18:06 for,me and it's 18:36 now Sooo it's right just sucks. The Phase might have been 48 hours, but it didn't end when the post in Page 1 said it would, and it didn't end at the time all of the vote counts told us it would. I don't know that the result of the Day would have been ANY different (because my attempts to defend geript did not get a single person to move their vote off of him yet, and in fact 2 more people moved their vote ONTO him after I tried to defend him) but it's "still kinda lame." Anyway, we're stuck with it, so I'm gonna let it go for now, and just move on. damdred wrote: Anyway, who do you think is town/scum Well, I would again backreference this post: n00bKing wrote: Situation: 11 players have votes in place, and 2 players are not voting. All 11 of the votes are on either batsnacks or Sulfurus. No one has a vote on anyone else. At this stage of a Day 1, I'm more used to seeing a smattering of votes on some other miscellaneous players too. Maybe partially because the scum team doesn't want to have all their votes in one place, so they fan out some (and maybe a random Townie or two gets tunneled on their respective targets, and won't budge, even though no one else has any interest in following along). Theory: This situation makes it pretty likely that one of the two players receiving votes is actually scum, and that we don't have a Town vs. Town situation for our two vote leaders. The scum team has not been able to fan out their votes, because they've needed "all hands on deck" to make sure that the scum player doesn't take a runaway lead in the voting. Conclusion: Even though there's a lot of time left in the Phase, we may not want to introduce a third lynch target, and should instead stick to trying to pick between these two (since, if the Theory is correct, one of them would flip Red). This is why I was disappointed to see the surge against geript ignite (aside from the fact that batsnacks' reasoning against him was garbage), because I felt like we had a REAL reason to think that one of the two original vote leaders was scum. I still feel that way now. As far as which of them is MORE likely to be scum, and which of my town reads become stronger based on the result of the lynch, I should re-read a few things first, and get back to you later. | ||
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On June 14 2015 07:57 MoosyDoosy wrote: Lol, I don't think anything is certain after this. getrip was fine with suspecting both Sulfurus and Rels when necessary and he even voted for both at some point. Not only that, but both Sulfurus AND Rels were two of our top suspects as Mafia. I can't shake off the feeling that getrip just really screwed up by accident and we were jumping on it for no reason. Kinda going pretty far out of your way to ignore the fact that geript said the Vigilante should KILL BATSNACKS tonight, aren't you? | ||
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n00bKing
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On June 14 2015 08:15 MoosyDoosy wrote: I don't see that post and mine have any relation? Really? damdred asked who was scum/town. And you said a bunch of stuff about what geript's opinions were on who might be scum. Presumably because we now know for certain that his opinions came from a Townie, and are not obfuscation in any way. So you talk and talk about Sulfurus and Rels, since those are both players geript voted against. But you completely IGNORE that geript said the Vigilante should KILL BATSNACKS. You don't understand why that looks bad? | ||
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On June 14 2015 08:30 WaveofShadow wrote: lol I don't think I understand why that looks bad Jeebus. Come on, man. He's doing analysis of geript's scumreads, since geript is now a confirmed Townie. He's casting suspicion on Rels and Sulfurus, because they were players that geript voted against. But the STRONGEST recommendation we got from our confirmed Townie was to KILL BATSNACKS IMMEDIATELY. To leave that out entirely and only focus on the other things makes it look like Batsnacks and Moosy are Mafia teammates. I'm not saying they are, but if they aren't, then Moosy is seriously screwing up here. | ||
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On June 14 2015 08:24 WaveofShadow wrote: Also something really stood out to me reading over EOD as well and that's th stupid conversation between Noob and Ruxxar that everyone ignored. I ignored it too up until this point. I sure wish everyone had focused more on that conversation, and paid a lot less attention to the dumb shit people were saying to get geript in a Noose. WaveofShadow wrote: Completely useless and irrelevant posting for pages, then ruxxar jumps in with this. I know everyone else jumped on as well but read through this and tell me it doesn't look like shit. Just ass-kissing of the worst degree, over emphasis on how his read developed and how bats was 'redeemed' when plenty of us found him townier way earlier. Yep, it's an ugly post. And it's not ruXxar's only ugly post. But I don't have any room for him in my suspects list at the moment. At least not before a re-read. | ||
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On June 14 2015 08:45 WaveofShadow wrote: He's asking for vig to remove him, not lynch, indicating that he thinks batsnacks is disruptive town. Given the way the game has gone so far, I can't think of a reason to trust anyone else's interpretations of geript's posts more than I trust my own. When you had your big argument with him, it seemed like I was the only one who understood what geript had actually meant, and said that geript's posts were not indicative of him being scum, and that the argument resulted from a misunderstanding on YOUR part. When batsnacks "caught geript claiming mafia" it seemed like I was the only one who understood what geript had actually meant, and said that the reasoning being used against him was hollow. I know the difference between a vigilante shot and a lynch. We get to try and lynch scum EVERY day. The vigilante only gets ONE chance to kill scum. If I recommend someone be shot by the vigilante, that's a MUCH stronger indictment than if I merely recommend that you lynch them. geript is not telling the vigilante to kill someone that he believes is just "disruptive town." I might tell people to ignore a disruptive townie, but there's no excuse for telling a one-shot vigilante to kill a town player. "In the least, you should to it to raise the overall intelligence level" does not mean that Batsnacks is such an idiot the vigilante should kill him, even though he's Town. It means that even IF he were to be Town, it wouldn't be that bad of a mistake, since Batsnacks is such an idiot. There's a very important distinction between those two things. You think geript would be SURPRISED if Batsnacks flipped Red? I don't think so. | ||
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On June 14 2015 09:09 Damdred wrote: Umm Idk why Geript as confirmed town would have better reads than say... anyone left alive? That's not the point. geript's reads might not be "better" but they are "trustworthy." Pick any player left that you think is better at this game than geript is. Are that player's reads likely to be "better" than geript's? Maybe. But you don't know whether they are genuine, or if they are coming from a scum player. geript's reads might not be right, but at least we have reason to expect he was being honest with us. And his honest opinions are that Sulfurus and Rels would be good players to think about lynching, but that first and foremost, we should put a bullet in batsnacks. | ||
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On June 14 2015 09:16 MoosyDoosy wrote: Let me guess. I fell for n00bKing's trap -> revealed I'm Mafia -> fact I'm agreeing with n00bking afterwards is desperate attempt to cover it up -> continuously pulling newb card -> lynch him? Maybe? It's definitely true that you are "continuously pulling newb card." I thought it was pretty funny when you were bashing batsnacks for his poor attitude this game, because he was making scumreads by only "skimming" the thread. Yet you apparently couldn't even be bothered to read Page 1, because you asked if we know how many mafia players there are, and then you edited a post, and then you asked what a Carl is. You asked me to re-read your post, in the context that you hadn't noticed geript had flipped Town. That mostly works, but the problem I have with it is where you say "Lol, I don't think anything is certain after this." To me, that sounds like "Well now that we saw geript was Town, after so many people were so sure he was scum, I don't think anything is certain." I can't PROVE that's what you meant, that's just how it reads to me. I also don't especially care for the fact that the last post made before geript flips Green is you doing a half-assed job of second-guessing the lynch on geript, because you're "so confused." That could be read as you trying to disassociate yourself from the mislynch on geript that you know is about to happen (but without being so obvious about it as to actually move your vote). | ||
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How so? Why do you think geript's reads aren't trustworthy, even if they could still be inaccurate? Why do you think he wouldn't be honest with us, on his way out the door? He's going to try and mislead us, just out of spite, because he's pissed about being mislynched? This is a Newbie game. Saying a post like mine is "very very wrong" without giving a single drop of explanation WHY it's wrong, does not serve the Town's interests. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On June 14 2015 12:18 Damdred wrote: Geript is a person, people are generally wrong. This is day one even good players are more often than not wrong on d1. I'm not saying geript wasn't being honest with anything. I'm saying following someones reads when you lynch them is the wrong thing to do. And a good way to lose a game, lets say you follow Geripts reads. Shoot bats he flips town, lynch X they flip town. Then what happens you are in lylo because you followed someones reads instead of developed something else as the days went on. I've already explained this but i'll rephrase, just because someone can be trusted once they are flipped doesn't mean that they should be followed necessarily. There isn't anything in here that disagrees with a single word of what I posted. I stated and re-stated that geript's reads could easily be mistaken. But we can expect his reads to be honest. So although I never advocated the idea of blindly or mindlessly following his recommendations, knowing that they came from an honest source could act as a helpful tie-breaker for someone. On June 14 2015 12:18 Damdred wrote: the only reason he wanted bats shot was because he thought he was being stupid. I do not think geript's irrationality reached those kinds of heights. Batsnacks "being stupid" is not a good enough reason to insist that a vigilante should burn his one and only bullet on him, if you don't think there's a reasonable chance of him actually flipping red. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On June 14 2015 15:18 Oatsmaster wrote: Damdred didn't call me town, he's scum. Also that completely pointless list post that has more townreads than scum reads. Sulph / damdred mafia. Doubt it. batsnacks and Sulfurus had been pretty close in the vote race for a while. Then damdred rides in to play White Knight for batsnacks. Around that same time, Moosy had cast his vote for Sulfurus, and soon after, oats moves his vote off of batsnacks, to geript. All of this is putting Sulfurus' neck firmly in the noose. Damdred and Sulfurus cannot both be scum unless Damdred was trying to bus him (which I think has a pretty low probability). If Damdred is scum, he's much more likely to be teamed with batsnacks, than with Sulfurus. Moosy could be on that team as well. If Sulfurus is scum, well...I have some ideas about who would be on that team, too. But I'll tell ya later. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On June 15 2015 00:27 Oatsmaster wrote: Btw if we have a vig, please dont go for a hero shot, go for a safe shot. PLEASE. What would be examples of a hero shot? What would be examples of a safe shot? | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On June 15 2015 01:20 WaveofShadow wrote: I guess ruxxar isn't scum, can't see why scum would bther post in thread revealing they know a potential blue outed himself. Guess I could think of a couple reasons, if I worked at it. 1) Could be for "pocketing" purposes. If Moosy is a blue role (or even just trying to look like one) then he might decide "Yeah, this ruXxar guy gets what I'm doing, we're on the same page!" If this were the case, then it might have worked, because you'll notice Moosy's eagerness to now townread him. 2) Could be for "WIFOM" purposes. Since scum wouldn't do it, he can do it, and keep people from thinking he's scum. If this were the case, then it might have worked, based on what you're saying about it. Then if they kill Moosy and he flips blue, ruXxar can be like "Yeah, see? Knew that guy was town, I saw what he was doing." These might be reaches, but I don't they are zero-probability scenarios. Hopefully Dr. Weird/Frylock have some good ideas for what they want to do with their actions (if anything, since they could also just wait). And hopefully Neil has some good targets in mind. So I won't make specific suggestions for any of these guys, since people don't seem to want to see much advice floating around. I will say only that I don't think Allen should target ruXxar. ruXxar's VT claim needlessly draws attention to himself, which could conceivably result in a cop check later. So (unless he made a mistake, which is also possible) I think he would be unlikely to make this play, if he didn't think he could pass the check. Which could obviously just mean he's Town. But IF he's not, then I think there is a greater-than-average chance he is Ignignokt, as opposed to any other scum role. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On June 15 2015 01:53 MoosyDoosy wrote: Nah, ruXxar posted way too fast in quick succession for it to be planned on his part. Not really wanting to make a big deal of this discussion, but...what's easier than posting in quick succession if you've "planned it"? lol | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On June 15 2015 02:05 batsnacks wrote: n00bking you read a lot of newbie mafia X right? Who would you say your play style this game most closely resembles in that game? That's a very unusual question. I guess I hadn't thought about it. Without going back to look at that thread, I guess I would say my play in this game is a closest match for...Rels, in that game? I remember often thinking that Breschke and Barakos were saying things that made me think they were Town. But they weren't always saying things that I had myself been thinking before they posted it. Rels was. (P.S. I still can't believe you guys lynched Bill Murray over ninjabunnies. I was almost yelling at the screen, toward the end of that Phase. lol) | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On June 15 2015 02:33 batsnacks wrote: BM was a fine lynch he didn't do anything to prevent it and we had a green check on bunnies. Well your green check was worth crap, huh? I will admit that I was not completely sure bunnies was scum. But I was still leaning scum, despite the green check. I was, however, completely sure Bill Murray was town. (Considerably more sure than I was that geript was Town in this game, where I made multiple attempts to save him from the noose.) Anyway, I'm going to bail on that discussion too, because it's another one that I don't think is proving to be productive, for purposes of THIS game. On June 15 2015 02:33 batsnacks wrote:Your posting this game is very similar to boxerfred. He spent tons of effort speculating about roles instead of focusing on finding mafia and we all just gave him a pass because he was new and at least he was posting a lot. 1) What was your purpose for asking me the question? it's not like you were going to get me to select boxerfred as my Newbie X doppelganger. 2) I also don't think you're going to try and say that I do not have quite a few posts in this game that are "focused on finding mafia"? I think you would find a whole lot of posts in my filter that revolve around using what has happened, and what's been said, to determine a player's alignment. And any time you can determine a player's alignment, it contributes to finding mafia. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
He sure did. And you can understand no one ever wanting to make THAT mistake again. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On June 15 2015 05:39 batsnacks wrote: While I'm still here I want to point out that n00bking was eerily upset when me/sulfurus stopped being the primary wagons yesterday. He made a couple posts about it I think he compared town to a train wreck after my lynch started losing steam. Don't let him get by with all this role speculation/advice stuff town made the same mistake last game with boxerfred. I compared town to a trainwreck after you AND Sulfurus lost steam, and geript was gaining steam. If I couldn't lynch you, I was happy to lynch Sulfurus. (You know, cuz Theory?) I was not at all interested in lynching geript, so yeah, was getting pretty unhappy. By the way, how about them roles? I wonder which roles are in the game, and who has 'em. Rolly-roll-role-roles. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On June 15 2015 06:18 ruXxar wrote: if I was a cop then I would check you or trelf. In my eyes you are the strongest players in this game and it would be dangerous if you were mafia. Hmm. I'll just leave this right here: ruXxar wrote: n00bking is my #1 townread right now, 100%. Trfel would be second. You sure you know what the cop is for? | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On June 15 2015 06:48 Rels wrote: Yo everybody. Wasn't available all day. I finish reading everything and I have a lot of posts to answer to and I need to sleep so I will do that tomorrow. If I'm not vigid of course. So if you die tonight, it could only be because you were vigi'd? There's no chance the scum team would have killed you? That's only because you're lynchbait now, right? And not because you're on the team? | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
WALL OF TEXT TIME! I don't particularly expect to be killed tonight. But just in case that happens, here's where my thoughts are at. Briefly, let's consider what it means if I do get killed. There was one post I made that I backreferenced twice, and is probably the post that would be most strongly associated with me. It was this one: n00bKing wrote: Situation: 11 players have votes in place, and 2 players are not voting. All 11 of the votes are on either batsnacks or Sulfurus. No one has a vote on anyone else. At this stage of a Day 1, I'm more used to seeing a smattering of votes on some other miscellaneous players too. Maybe partially because the scum team doesn't want to have all their votes in one place, so they fan out some (and maybe a random Townie or two gets tunneled on their respective targets, and won't budge, even though no one else has any interest in following along). Theory: This situation makes it pretty likely that one of the two players receiving votes is actually scum, and that we don't have a Town vs. Town situation for our two vote leaders. The scum team has not been able to fan out their votes, because they've needed "all hands on deck" to make sure that the scum player doesn't take a runaway lead in the voting. Conclusion: Even though there's a lot of time left in the Phase, we may not want to introduce a third lynch target, and should instead stick to trying to pick between these two (since, if the Theory is correct, one of them would flip Red). I didn't have any luck whatsoever trying to get geript out of the noose, and some players (like damdred and batsnacks) have been saying that a lot of my posts can just be safely ignored. Based on all that, I don't think the scum players would kill me, to make it look like they were trying to silence me, to FRAME one of Sulfurus/batsnacks, if they were both actually town. Rather, the scum team would only kill me if my Theory was indeed correct, and one of Sulfurus/batsnacks IS scum. So remember, if the scum team kills me, the Theory is correct. We already know that I still think the Theory is correct, and I've mentioned some possible teammates for batsnacks (damdred, Moosy) if he is the bad guy in this scenario. And I said that I also had some ideas in mind about who could be possible teammates for Sulfurus, if he is the bad guy in this scenario. So here goes. If Sulfurus is scum, my best guess for a teammate of his is ruXxar. And my second-best guess is Rels. Trying to catch the entirety of a 3-man scum team before anyone flips red might be a fool's errand, but there are a lot of interesting things to note, about the interactions (and sometimes, lack of interactions) between these 3 players. Most of all, they do not speak to each other directly, they just speak OF each other indirectly. This could be because all 3 of them are on the Newbie list. A couple of them may be playing as scum in Mafia-by-forum for their very first time. And they may be trying to avoid talking with each other, because they question their ability to make the conversation seem authentic, rather than fabricated. Sulfurus has not made any posts where he is speaking directly to ruXxar OR rels. None. NONE! Nor has ruXxar made ANY posts where he is speaking directly to Sulfurus. Rels has made only 1 post where he is speaking directly to Sulfurus, and has made 2 posts where he is speaking directly to ruXxar. ruXxar has made only 1 post where he is speaking directly to Rels, and that was a post where he is answering a question that Rels has posed to him. But although these guys don't ever talk to each other, they talk ABOUT each other plenty. If you look through their respective filters, you'll find a LOT of instances where they are soft-defending each other, and giving each other slight town reads. Occasionally one of them will give one of the others a hard town read instead. Sometimes they talk about their willingness to vote against one of the others, but it NEVER actually happens. One of the most interesting posts in all of Day 1 was this one: This was the towniest post batsnacks made the whole phase. He's been in this vote race with Sulfurus for a lot of the day, yet he points out that it is curious (and yes, bold) for Sulfurus (if he were scum) to protect Rels, who has surfaced as a third horse in that vote race. If batsnacks is scum and trying to avoid the noose, why is he pointing out something Sulfurus had said that wouldn't make any sense, if Sulfurus were scum? So this reflects well on batsnacks, more than anything else he did the whole phase. And it's a GOOD question. If Sulfurus is scum and trying to avoid the noose, why is he protecting this new potential target (Rels)? Well, one explanation that would make sense is: If Rels is ALSO scum. Lastly, I'll take a look at how this potential Sulfurus/reXxar/Rels team fits in with my Theory about the Day 1 voting. Here's the vote count, at the time I posted the Theory: On June 13 2015 20:33 Onegu wrote: Oatsmaster (0): ruXxar (0): Kickstart (0): Sulfurus (5): Kickstart, geript, batsnacks, WaveOfShadow, scott11331373737373771317371373 Batsnacks (6): n00bKing, ruXxar, Oatsmaster, sulfurus, Rels, Trfel scott113133373737131731371313713137 (0): Geript (0): Rels (0): Not Voting (2): MoosyDoosy Damdred If the scum team is Sulfurus/ruXxar/Rels, then without a doubt, you've got "all hands on deck" in that vote count, keeping batsnacks in the lead ahead of Sulfurus. All 3 of them have their vote on batsnacks, to help make sure Sulfurus doesn't run out to an insurmountable lead. And the timing of those votes makes sense too, in that scenario. ruXxar was on batsnacks early. It isn't until Sulfurus picks up a 2nd vote (the one from geript) that Sulfurus goes ahead and piles onto batsnacks. And it isn't until Sulfurus picks up a 3rd vote (the one from batsnacks) that Rels ALSO piles onto batsnacks. But I'm sure they wouldn't be comfortable, all having their vote on the same guy, who they know would flip green. So once Trfel puts the 6th vote on batsnacks, Rels is looking to make a move. As I mentioned at the time, he goes OUTSIDE the game, to look at batsnacks' meta, to manufacture an excuse to move his vote off of him. If he can get a third horse going, it could shut down the usefulness of my Theory, because it can stall the batsnacks vs. Sulfurus debate for another day. So Rels goes after geript, who we now know was Town. He then IMMEDIATELY bails on the thread (in the same post where he puts his vote on geript) so that I won't have a chance to berate him for how his vote change violates the Conclusion of my Theory. Rels can safely move off of batsnacks, because even in the 5 vs. 5 tie it creates, batsnacks would still be the lynch, and not Sulfurus. He can always shift back later if he needs to, but if they can get away with it, they really don't want to all be in the same place at the same time. I said during Day 1 that Sulfurus was my "#2 suspect." batsnacks was #1. Later in the day, I said that Sulfurus was "still a Top 2 suspect for me." I no longer said he was #2, just Top 2. Because he had actually overtaken batsnacks as #1. I just hadn't moved my vote yet (or even admitted that Sulfurus was the new #1), because I wanted to see batsnacks follow through on his promise to "destroy the thread" if he stayed in the vote lead long enough. Sulfurus would be my top lynch on Day 2. If he flips Red, is it better to go after ruXxar or Rels next? That's tough. The ties between Sulfurus and ruXxar are definitely stronger than the ties between Sulfurus and Rels. But Rels is being read by more people as being generally scummy right now, so he might be the easier lynch, even if ruXxar could be the more logical lynch. I'll say again that I would not waste a cop check on ruXxar, because if he's scum, I think his most likely role is Ignignokt. If Sulfurus flips Green, then it's back to the drawing board, to some extent. Hopefully that would mean a batsnacks scum team, and he's paired with either Moosy or damdred. But that case is tougher to make than Sulfurus/ruXxar/Rels. If Sulfurus and batsnacks are both Green, then I have been wrong about pretty close to everything in this game, and you shouldn't even be interested in who I think the scum team might be, at that point. If it's something like Kickstart/Wave/Trfel, then...good luck with that. Alright, that's it. Go Town! | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On June 15 2015 06:59 n00bKing wrote: I don't particularly expect to be killed tonight. derp. I hope all the players on both sides have fun. But most of all, I hope the Town winnnnnnnnnns! Bye guys! | ||
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