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On June 13 2015 08:40 Trfel wrote:
1. Of course Rels says he was making posts as he read. The fact is that we have no way to verify this, and that there is no good town motivation to do this.
I agree with you that there is no good town motivation to do that.
But do you also agree with me that there is actually scum motivation to NOT do that?
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On June 13 2015 08:57 MoosyDoosy wrote:
^ I'm talking about this. You clearly haven't read the thread.
You said you defended him first. The posts of yours that you just quoted are several hours after mine.
Anyway, I'm not going to continue bickering with you about this, as I do not find the discussion to be productive. You said what you said, I showed it to be false. And now I'm moving on.
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On June 13 2015 09:03 batsnacks wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2015 09:00 Rels wrote:
Last game D1 you didn't do a whole lot either if I remember correctly. In both game you also posted a nonsense post to gauge reactions. Yeah you're totally wrong and that is points against you. The only time I posted nonsense that game was at night and that's because I was the cop and did not want to get killed.
Definitely not true. I expect he is talking about this steaming pile here, which was posted early in Day 1, and not at night:
batsnacks wrote:
above is THE JOYOUS, LAKE
below is KEEPING STILL, MOUNTAIN
Influence. Success.
When a weak element is above (the lake) and a strong element is below (the mountain), their powers attract each other so that they unite. This brings about success, for all success depends on the effect of mutual attraction
Perseverance furthers.
By keeping still within while experiencing joy without, one can prevent the joy from going to excess and hold it within proper bounds. This is the meaning of, "Perseverance furthers."
To take a maiden to wife brings good fortune
Heaven and earth attract each other and thus all creatures come into being. From the attractions they exert we can learn the nature of all beings in heaven and on earth.
A lake on the mountain:
The image of influence.
Thus the superior man encourages people to approach him
By his readiness to receive them.
A mountain with a lake on its summit is stimulated by the moisture from the lake. It has this advantage because its summit does not jut out as a peak but is sunken. The image counsels that the mind should be kept humble and free, so that it may remain receptive to good advice. People soon give up counseling a man who thinks that he knows everything better than anyone else.
The influence shows itself in the calves of the legs.
Misfortune.
Tarrying brings good fortune.
In movement, the calf of the leg follows the foot; by itself it can neither go forward nor stand still. Since the movement is not self-governed, it bodes ill. One should wait quietly until one is impelled to action by a real influence. Then one remains uninjured.
Your philosophical post about danger in this game looks a bit like a forced attempt to duplicate the same kind of nonsense you kicked off the last game with (since it was very recent, and people will remember you were Town).
Meanwhile, you never answered my question about approximately how many times you've been assigned a scum role in these games.
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On June 13 2015 11:22 batsnacks wrote:
If I'm still leading in votes in approx 12 hours I am going to make this thread chaos. Goodnight!
Very excited to see batsnacks try to blow up the thread. But what I don't like about this post is that I thought it might kill activity in the thread. If I had been voting against anyone but batsnacks, this post would make me want to switch to voting against him, and then just...wait 12 hours. And "just waiting 12 hours" is probably not what we should be doing on Day 1. Hopefully posts will continue to trickle in here and there.
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Situation: 11 players have votes in place, and 2 players are not voting. All 11 of the votes are on either batsnacks or Sulfurus. No one has a vote on anyone else.
At this stage of a Day 1, I'm more used to seeing a smattering of votes on some other miscellaneous players too. Maybe partially because the scum team doesn't want to have all their votes in one place, so they fan out some (and maybe a random Townie or two gets tunneled on their respective targets, and won't budge, even though no one else has any interest in following along).
Theory: This situation makes it pretty likely that one of the two players receiving votes is actually scum, and that we don't have a Town vs. Town situation for our two vote leaders. The scum team has not been able to fan out their votes, because they've needed "all hands on deck" to make sure that the scum player doesn't take a runaway lead in the voting.
Conclusion: Even though there's a lot of time left in the Phase, we may not want to introduce a third lynch target, and should instead stick to trying to pick between these two (since, if the Theory is correct, one of them would flip Red).
Thoughts? Does the Theory seem reasonable, or is the Situation more likely just an odd coincidence?
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On June 13 2015 15:22 Trfel wrote:
There is some scum motivation not to do that, but there's a lot more scum motivation TO do it. A whole lot more than the town motivation, anyway.
Please explain further. What is the scum motivation to do that?
Trfel wrote:
I know you are scumreading batsnacks. What do you think about Sulfurus, Rels, and scott31337?
This should help a little:
n00bKing wrote: So far, scott is not sounding as suspicious as FakePlants did. So I'll bump him down my list a little.
I do not care for the tone of Sulfurus' posts. He would probably be my #2 lynch right now.
Those trends have continued. Sulfurus remains a Top 2 lynch target for me, and I would be tempted to switch my vote to him, except that I have to stay on batsnacks so he will blow up the thread.
FakePlants had made a bad post and then lurked. But now that he's been replaced, the lurking can't really be seen as suspicious anymore.
Couple of things I like about his replacement:
1) Scott's first post in the thread says he's not liking me, due to wordy posts and fluff. But less than 30 minutes later, he says that he likes Oat's post about how I look Townie, for continuing my posting style even after being warned about it. And he says that "makes a lot of sense." This quick turnaround looks to me like "stream of consciousness" type stuff, as he makes his way through the thread, rather than prepared statements.
2) All those posts from Scott come pretty quickly after he is placed in the game. He wouldn't have had much opportunity to confer with scum teammates before deciding which direction to go on things.
3) His reads list looks pretty legit to me. I'm not especially interested in lynching the people he claims to trust, and all the people I feel like I should be lynching are people he's willing to lynch as well. This won't be a big deal to every player, but it counts for something with me.
Rels? Dunno, man. He looks a lot to me like he did in Newbie X, when he was Town. But some of the veterans in this game are seeing stuff from him they don't like. I'm not ready to try and pass judgment on Rels, I'll just have to keep watching him.
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Okay, one last post, then bed, and I'll see everyone in the morning.
What's the prevailing philosophy around here on whether (or when) Carl should roleclaim? Seems to me that if he remains hidden, there is all kinds of potential for disaster, and maybe even moreso in a Newbie game.
So does someone with that type of role usually roleclaim? If not, why not? And if so, is it usually done Day 1, or not until after Night 1 begins?
I can see some distinct advantages of him claiming during Day 1, instead of waiting for Night. If the claim goes uncountered (and comes from anyone that doesn't have a bunch of votes stacked up on them) then we have a largely confirmed Townie. Anyone who had previously voted against that player gets a small strike against them, for barking up the wrong tree. And Carl's vote in the batsnacks/Sulfurus debate takes on extra weight, because although Carl could still be incorrect, at least we could expect that he's not incorrect on purpose.
I feel like this topic should have probably been raised a while ago, but I kept waiting and waiting, to see who would bring it up, so that I could award them some Town Cred just for mentioning it. (Guess I have to give the Town Cred to myself now? w00t?)
Anyway, interested in hearing other opinions on this.
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On June 13 2015 17:38 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2015 16:47 n00bKing wrote:
Okay, one last post, then bed, and I'll see everyone in the morning.
What's the prevailing philosophy around here on whether (or when) Carl should roleclaim? Seems to me that if he remains hidden, there is all kinds of potential for disaster, and maybe even moreso in a Newbie game.
So does someone with that type of role usually roleclaim? If not, why not? And if so, is it usually done Day 1, or not until after Night 1 begins?
I can see some distinct advantages of him claiming during Day 1, instead of waiting for Night. If the claim goes uncountered (and comes from anyone that doesn't have a bunch of votes stacked up on them) then we have a largely confirmed Townie. Anyone who had previously voted against that player gets a small strike against them, for barking up the wrong tree. And Carl's vote in the batsnacks/Sulfurus debate takes on extra weight, because although Carl could still be incorrect, at least we could expect that he's not incorrect on purpose.
I feel like this topic should have probably been raised a while ago, but I kept waiting and waiting, to see who would bring it up, so that I could award them some Town Cred just for mentioning it. (Guess I have to give the Town Cred to myself now? w00t?)
Anyway, interested in hearing other opinions on this. Thinking about it I agree with it. There is no good reason to stay hidden if you're Carl. My reasonning is: - if you're a someone most people sees at townie, you take the risk of killing the doctor - if you're someone people are suspicious of, you take the risk of killing the cop or the vigi
It's even worse than that. If Dr. Weird targets Carl, then it looks to me like they would kill each other, just like Frylock and Carl would kill each other. And yes, Carl would also kill Allen and Neil.
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On June 13 2015 18:17 ruXxar wrote:
I disagree.
There are 3 Mafia and 2 town roles.
I believe that reducing kill power from 2 to 1 is the single most important factor in us winning the game.
This would buy us so much time that we should have overwhelming odds of winning.
The chance of targeting Carl is very low.
I'm ok with taking the odds of a power role checking Carl if it means we increase our chances of killing mafia.
Does knowing that there is only 1 mafia attack each Night change your position?
Also, where are you getting that there are "2 town roles?" I see absolutely nothing that would indicate there are 8 VTs and 2 non-Vanilla Town roles, if that is what you are saying.
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On June 13 2015 18:19 Oatsmaster wrote:
I think it's pretty unlikely we have a PGO.
It isn't less likely than having any other Town role, unless the Host is willfully manipulating the setup.
Oatsmaster wrote: Noob, generally people don't discuss blue roles or speculate on the setup because it's easy for mafia to do and it doesn't help us find mafia at all.
So spend your time finding mafia, not town pr.
If "pr" is supposed to mean "power role" then Carl is definitely NOT that. Something with tremendous potential to be a self-destructive liability for the Town, that's what he is. From something I found with a Google search called "Mafia Wiki":
As a general rule, PGO is an anti-Town role because it is more likely to kill Town power roles than scum in all cases except when there are no other Town power roles
For us to keep Carl hidden essentially means we don't understand basic math. And that's without even considering the benefits of looking at which players may have voted against him before he claimed, and knowing that his vote is most likely coming from a Town player that has good intentions. Even if you don't put much weight on those advantages, keeping Carl in hiding is already a mistake anyway.
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On June 13 2015 18:29 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2015 18:24 Oatsmaster wrote:
Btw I'm pretty sure there's only one kp.
can we get confirmation on whether there is 2 or 1 kp?
Please try not to get mod-killed. The rules very clearly state that you are not allowed to make a post like that:
All questions to the hosts must be sent as PMs, do not ask in the thread.
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On June 13 2015 21:51 batsnacks wrote:
That isn't a scum read. That is me being concerned that ruxxar and n00b are making mistakes that could cost town the game. They should have a dialog with me before the lynch because I'm town and I can convince them I'm town, or at the very least not the best lynch today.
Okay? We're waiting. Let's have a dialogue. Convince me that you're Town.
Again, I was very excited to see you follow through on your promise to destroy the thread, if you stayed in the vote lead. And the scummiest thing Rels has done this entire game is panic after that promise, and start reading your posts in other games so that he could manufacture a flimsy excuse to move his vote off of you.
As a Town player, I couldn't WAIT for you to blow up the thread. But if I were scum, that idea might be pretty concerning to me. And I might try to figure out a way to get you out of the vote lead, so you'll shut up.
batsnacks wrote:
I completely disagree that most of what I've posted is useless I think I have easily contributed more to this game than anyone else
Clicking the "Post" button a bunch of times does not mean you are making worthwhile contributions. You keep yapping about your long filter, but NOTHING kicks, fights, bites and screams more than a mafia player that is in vote trouble without there being concrete evidence behind it. Staring down the noose MIGHT spur an inactive Town player into action, but not nearly as much (or as consistently) as it spurs mafia players into action.
You talk like people are voting against you only because of your poor open, but that they aren't reassessing bases on the posts you've made since. I've read every post you've made. There isn't anything that counteracts your poor open. You've been told this by multiple players already, so it's not like I am blind to what those others see.
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On June 14 2015 04:05 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2015 04:03 n00bKing wrote:On June 13 2015 18:29 ruXxar wrote:On June 13 2015 18:24 Oatsmaster wrote:
Btw I'm pretty sure there's only one kp.
can we get confirmation on whether there is 2 or 1 kp? Please try not to get mod-killed. The rules very clearly state that you are not allowed to make a post like that: All questions to the hosts must be sent as PMs, do not ask in the thread. Actually, Onegu said that we could ask in green right afterwards. But, ya know, mod is clear Mafia for contradiction right?
YES, I absolutely agree with you. There is no way that those two perspectives can co-exist in the same mind. Lynching him will basically GUARANTEE us a good result.
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On June 13 2015 23:03 ruXxar wrote:
Reading through geripts filter I get a bad vibe.
[snip]
Then he gets into an argument with waveofshadow who also picks up on his inconsistency in alignment on moosy.
damdred wrote: Geript yea I didn't like his filter parts of it seemed pointless, abd his argument with wave just read weird to me
For what it's worth, if you want to assign blame in the Geript vs. Wave argument, it was completely Wave's fault. I have read that argument three times (in context, NOT just by using their filters) and Wave is just twisting Geript's words to make it look like he said something he didn't.
But I didn't scumread Wave for it, because it looks to me like he genuinely misunderstood. I didn't feel like Wave was intentionally trying to frame Geript, he just looked confused.
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On June 14 2015 04:05 WaveofShadow wrote:
Also random point? Where is Kickstart? Guy blasts out the gate and was the first to vote the likely lynch for today but I don't remember him doing anything in a while.
Yeah, I was thinking the same thing last night. Kickstart was probably the early post-count leader, but then disappeared for the second half of the Phase.
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On June 14 2015 04:13 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2015 03:50 n00bKing wrote:
Does knowing that there is only 1 mafia attack each Night change your position?
Knowing that there is only 1 kp, then i believe there is a case both for and against the PGO to reveal himself. Here are my scenarios for and against : For: The PGO is a weak town player that might get cop checked. The PGO is one of the strongest town players and likely to be targeted by the medic. Against: A semi strong town player is the PGO, but he's not the strongest. Medic will most likely protect the perceived strongest town player. The mafia knowing this will go for some of the second strongest targets they know probably won't be saved by the medic. In this case it's beneficial for the PGO to not reveal himself.
That's pretty interesting, considering you had just said this:
ruXxar wrote: After reducing kill power to 1 I would agree that Carl revealing himself is a good play.
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On June 14 2015 04:32 Trfel wrote:Rels on Fake)Plants/scott31337Show nested quote +On June 13 2015 07:36 Rels wrote:
I was sure 100% he was mafia. Now that he got replaced that has changed. (referring to Fake)Plants) Show nested quote +On June 13 2015 08:40 Rels wrote:
Alright scott I don't see your posts as scummy. Show nested quote +On June 14 2015 01:27 Rels wrote:On June 14 2015 00:58 geript wrote:
It was a good reason tho. I remember thinking that. Yo geript. If you ever remember that reason I'll be super interested, as I hated plants' only post. I don't understand this at all. He basically says that he has no reason to scumread scott31337 any more, but doesn't townread him in his list post. And then, when geript ( who he was voting for at this time) mentions a reason that he moved scott31337 to null (but says that he doesn't remember the reason), Rels is extremely interested and justifies this by referring back to his initial read on Fake)Plants. The read he already said has changed. He's just jumping on something that's there, and it's hard for me to see him really trying to figure out scott31337's alignment.
This post is pitiful. Like, PITIFUL. You're completely disregarding the whole reason Rels thought FakePlants was scum to begin with. Everything in Rels' thought progression on FakePlants/scott makes sense.
I still say the scummiest thing Rels has done is manufacturing an excuse to pull his vote off of batsnacks, after batsnacks threatened to blow up the thread if he stayed in the vote lead. Now, Oats made the same mistake (of pulling his vote off batsnacks) but at least he did so after having a long back and forth with batsnacks. Instead of just miraculously convincing himself using something from out of the thread.
We HAD this neat, clean Situation:
n00bKing wrote: Situation: 11 players have votes in place, and 2 players are not voting. All 11 of the votes are on either batsnacks or Sulfurus. No one has a vote on anyone else.
At this stage of a Day 1, I'm more used to seeing a smattering of votes on some other miscellaneous players too. Maybe partially because the scum team doesn't want to have all their votes in one place, so they fan out some (and maybe a random Townie or two gets tunneled on their respective targets, and won't budge, even though no one else has any interest in following along).
Theory: This situation makes it pretty likely that one of the two players receiving votes is actually scum, and that we don't have a Town vs. Town situation for our two vote leaders. The scum team has not been able to fan out their votes, because they've needed "all hands on deck" to make sure that the scum player doesn't take a runaway lead in the voting.
Conclusion: Even though there's a lot of time left in the Phase, we may not want to introduce a third lynch target, and should instead stick to trying to pick between these two (since, if the Theory is correct, one of them would flip Red).
And somehow we've now instead got this clusterfuck:
Onegu wrote:Oatsmaster (0): Kickstart
ruXxar (0): Trfel
Kickstart (0): Sulfurus
Sulfurus (5): Kickstart, geript, batsnacks, WaveOfShadow, scott11331373737373771317371373, MoosyDoosy
Batsnacks (3): n00bKing, ruXxar, Oatsmaster, sulfurus, Rels, Trfel
scott113133373737131731371313713137 (0): Rels
Geript (2): WaveofShadow, Rels, Oatsmaster,
Rels (3): batsnacks, Trfel, Damdred, Geript
*sigh*
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Edit By Way of Post:
I guess the strikethroughs don't carry over in the copy/paste, but you get the idea, if you just look at the numbers in parentheses
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On June 14 2015 04:56 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2015 04:40 n00bKing wrote:On June 14 2015 04:13 ruXxar wrote:On June 14 2015 03:50 n00bKing wrote:
Does knowing that there is only 1 mafia attack each Night change your position?
Knowing that there is only 1 kp, then i believe there is a case both for and against the PGO to reveal himself. Here are my scenarios for and against : For: The PGO is a weak town player that might get cop checked. The PGO is one of the strongest town players and likely to be targeted by the medic. Against: A semi strong town player is the PGO, but he's not the strongest. Medic will most likely protect the perceived strongest town player. The mafia knowing this will go for some of the second strongest targets they know probably won't be saved by the medic. In this case it's beneficial for the PGO to not reveal himself. That's pretty interesting, considering you had just said this: ruXxar wrote: After reducing kill power to 1 I would agree that Carl revealing himself is a good play. In my first post I was just taking into consideration that mafia with 1 kp perform 1 target action per night and that town has 2 with cop and medic. It wasn't until my last post that i thought about it more deeply and tried to figure out the real scenarios. I'm also not used to mafia with more roles than mafia, cop, medic, vigilante and town. A lot of my thinking right now is automatically based around just having those roles in the game, since that's what i've had the most exposure to. I'm trying to rectify this.
You're moving in the opposite direction of what would make sense, though. You assumed the Town had only Cop and Doctor. And said that once the Mafia was down to 1kp, it makes sense for Carl to claim.
Now, nevermind the fact that a discussion OF the Carl role ALREADY destroys your notion that the Town only has Cop and Doctor as its non-vanilla roles.
When you add in Dr. Weird and Frylock as additional Town roles that could be killed by Carl (both of which would kill Carl at the same time!) it becomes way MORE obvious that Carl needs to claim. Instead, when you thought about it more, you start to see a case for and against him claiming? That doesn't make any sense. Please make sense.
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On June 14 2015 05:36 ruXxar wrote:
According to this, it's possible that the 3 mafia can have these roles:
Role blocker, rolecop, godfather, vigilante and goon.
Or does it mean that there are 3 mafia PLUS possibly 5 other roles that are not mafia, but win when mafia wins?
Please help me understand.
It's the first one. There are 3 mafia, who can have any of those 5 roles. It looks to me like 2 mafia could even have the same 1 of those 5 roles, weird as that sounds.
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EPT
