EPTWe should've done this D2 already.
Newbie Student Mafia X - Page 8
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
We should've done this D2 already. | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
On May 30 2015 06:48 batsnacks wrote: Nah bunnies isn't the gf BAT TRAPS LOL Shenanies onto sulfur ##unvote ##vote sulfurus So you did check him at night or what? I don't get it | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
Other scenario would be plotspot being the scum RB, however, he still needs to do this night what he's told to confirm his town alignment. I took 30 minutes now to read through Dis' filter. I tried really hard. Besides him poking me, there's not really anything indicating that he has a scum alignment. Only thing that I have left is the posting pattern. Re-reading through this day though, he's posting townish only. Then again, his vote was decisive in lynching Sulf. He "flipped a coin" in the end. I can see Barakos as a checked town following the vote of batsnacks. I can see plots' post with the 80% chance and since Dis' has been reasonable in his argumentations, I can also see him following the vote. I cannot see him flipping a coin  . I'll think about it more when its not 1am in the morning anymore. Gonna go to sleep. Also a shame that Tictocs wasted his vote on plots. Wish he'd been around EoD. | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
"They could also just be townie. Idk." after a big paragraph on Barakos/Tictocs? Not helpful at all, more like "here are some random thoughts but they can be wrong". Leave it then. Same goes for "He might just be some kind of mastermind, that surfs well through interactions. While he posts smileys and stuff, he could actually be perfectly stoic behind his PC, never missing a beat. LOL Idk." I'm not sure if I should interprate those posts as.. a) ..scum alignment: after confusing the shit out of town last day, you now want to confuse them even more since you had success with a town flip lynch or.. b) ..town alignment: after having a huge, seemingly flawless theory and solved the game proven wrong, you're a bit in a sad mood and see your efforts going down the drain. I tend to b). Just go to sleep, re-order your thoughts and theories, re-target your efforts on whoever you think is most scum-ly to you, and do your best to clear things up. In any case, I'd like you to stop those "well idk can be everyone at everything" posts. You'll end up with saying "lel batsnacks no cop" while pretty much everything by now relies on him and his claim. | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
Bunnies: then we have bunnies, who almost everybody thought was scum, where I thought she was just lazy, plus the green-check mechanics gave her an 84% chance of being town than scum (I was wrong yesterday when I thought it was only 80%). Like today it is, 80% when we take into consideration that boxerfred, disformation, SL and Barakos are also in the pool. Usually this is the theory, but does math really help here? Even the math falls, when I start to read 3 of the remaining 4 players town, because it’s IMPOSSIBLE of all of them to be mafia. So what? it reduces it down to 50-60% still. If I RB her, there is a chance we establish her as town, at least more than when she was not RBed in comparison to any players I haven’t RB yet. Either bunnies or barakos are town, so your list is false. If bunnies is indeed GF, Barakos' green check holds. And the other way around of course. Also, if you are scum RB, both green check hold. So whatever your logic is, it's incomplete. | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
On May 31 2015 06:57 Barakos wrote: don't block tictock.. he is like the only confirmed town besides you. potential mafia at this point are bunnies, disfo, boxer, sl. (bats too, but blocking him seems pointless, cause he is most likely killed tonight, if he is actually cop) If I were you, I'd pick one of those. Not saying anything more. ^^ Someone said pick someone, who seems towny, cause this might make for a surprise... or pick the most scummy, caus mafia might suspect you to pick someone town.. just please block out of the 4 names. Add yourself if you add bunnies. Though I think blocking bunnies is like the best thing to do. However, do whatever you feel like and don't tell who you block at all. Not even now. | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
On May 31 2015 07:14 Barakos wrote: And boxer: I was not on the to-block-list, because I already was blocked and we need a 2nd person to confirm, that there is a blocker, to beat some sense into tictock. So blocking me over and over won't get tictock off of plots head and we need a sane confirmed town, to solve this. Good point, didn't think of this. Holy shit plots why would you block the one guy who is the most unlikely to claim incorrectly? Why would you ever do this? Like, every block besides tictocs and bats would've made sense | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
On May 31 2015 07:24 Barakos wrote: ok... mafia from least likely to most likely only based on claims: boxerfred, disfo, sl (no claims, no checks) ninjabunnies, greencheck, but possible godfather) barakos (greencheck, but possible godfather; roleblocked in a night with a scum-nightkill) plotspots (roleblocker, with one confirmed mafia-roleblocker and no other town powerroles) tictock (mason, that has gone insane over losing his mason-partner) mafia based on feeling: disfo 27nb bf sl would lynch down that list, depending I don't find anything completely spectacular in the filters for now ##vote: disformation Wait, this is my list from D2. I started the Dis/SL/bunnies stuff when everyone was on Sulf. Can you explain to me how the RB that you had on to you speaks for you not being GF? for now, too: ##vote: disformation | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
On May 31 2015 07:41 Barakos wrote: mathematical technicality... I was blocked on a night, where a kill happend... one of mafia has to deliver the kill. So there is a chance, that if I was mafia, I would have delivered the kill, which would not have happened, if I was blocked... It's not much, but makes me "more green" than bunnies. my head hurts but yes I get the point | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
On May 31 2015 07:56 sicklucker wrote: if my play was to make you waste your block so you can become confirmed. Why am I calling you confirmed town here You could be GF with dis or plots. That would be RB+RB+GF setup. Also, that would explain why you would kill AND block the cop, making your play seem the most townie play to ever make without forcing RB to do what town wants (which is what bats argued about trusting the role claim). Would be a huge play. Since you're no newbie, I can imagine that. Any thoughts on this? | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
On May 31 2015 08:13 sicklucker wrote: Tictock ok so your saying mafia does not have a rb left. So far this story checks out because the rb was used on bats/rels who died. So why dont we just leave plots alone and he can rb you or someone you trust. Then they can confirm he was roleblocked. If hes mafia claiming roleblock without being able to roleblock hes insane. Because eventually his story wont check out because no ones reporting being roleblocked. Flawed logic. Tictocks: "please block me, I trust myself." Tictocks gets killed. Tictocks: "please block SL, I trust him." SL gets killed. So..? | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
On May 31 2015 08:16 Barakos wrote: + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://i1224.photobucket.com/albums/ee374/SilentSpringSun/GIF/tumblr_liqb50Xkky1qd5ljyo1_500.gif) I'll be off for tonight... because after sad comes mad. -.-' ty for playing voice of reason, sl. I'd love to know whether you didn't see the flawed logic or chose to ignore it. You're strengthening ticktocks case by that. Okay, so we have tic's huge case, explaining why Barakos and Plots are the GF pair - and we have the other case, where bunnies is GF and one of me, dis, sl is scum and where plots is the RB. (3rd possibility: GF + GF + RB setup which is not likely I guess since its the only scenario that would not include one scum member in between the three guys) So it comes down to Barakos and bunnies. If we lynch Barakos and he flips red, we pretty much have plots as the remaining scum member, eliminating chances. If we lynch bunnies and she flips red, we're down to three guys with one scum member on them. Those three guys are disinformation, sicklucker and myself. I'd go for lynching between the two. It's a 50% chance. On May 31 2015 08:26 Barakos wrote: still this is perfect, because that way, you can control mafia-nightkills you just make plots block suspects. Then mafia either kills the suspects or you get plots confirmed. and if plots blocks mafia and mafia denies being blocked, you kill plots, see he was the rb and found yourself a mafia. True. That makes me feel like we should start with voting bunnies. Which I try to do since D2. On May 31 2015 08:28 sicklucker wrote: ##vote boxerfred Stop trying to light the fire. Were a plots/tictoc reconciliation away from winning the game. All plots has to do is roleblock you disinfo or bunnies. If mafia kills them thats great for us. If he doesint and hes mafia hes claiming mafia I'm not lighting any fire (as you can see from my post). I'm reasoning. ##unvote ##vote 27ninjabunnies almost 2am here. good night. | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
On May 31 2015 08:32 sicklucker wrote: But plots you understand why its important you dont say who you roleblock. Mafia could kill that person and use it as an excuse to vote you out On May 31 2015 08:26 Barakos wrote: still this is perfect, because that way, you can control mafia-nightkills you just make plots block suspects. Then mafia either kills the suspects or you get plots confirmed. and if plots blocks mafia and mafia denies being blocked, you kill plots, see he was the rb and found yourself a mafia. are you reading? | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
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