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On May 10 2015 18:14 sicklucker wrote:
I would acualy rather see yosu dead over ritoky. My logic is if hes town then hes not going to derp away an auto win an dvote me here like the newer players will
Have you seen ritoky's PoE list? It's Shining and myself as the last mafia.
On May 10 2015 06:49 ritoky wrote:
i get home in probably 4 hrs, so i will read it more thoroughly there.
that said, my initial thoughts is that SL has been tunneled pretty hard on me for a lot of the game, which doesn't seem like a winning strat as the last mafia alive. he is high on the lynch list, tunneling me and me flipping town will only put him closer to the lynch so idk...doesn't seem like a winning line of play.
TT statistically likely town
-c- pretty much town
superbia conf town
y0su considered my claim so might be town.
which leaves shining and hts....so after i read your SL read, i should probably read those 2 filters.
Not sure what he means by tictock being "statistically likely" but more important, what do you think about his PoE list different from yours?
You've PoEed Tictock and y0su, yet you suspect ritoky who provides those reasons for towning two of your PoEs. Thoughts on that?
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HtS, you keep saying N1 actions are WIFOM. Explain how?
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On May 11 2015 00:34 y0su wrote:
HtS, you keep saying N1 actions are WIFOM. Explain how?
WIFOM comes from the film the Princess Bride where the guy keeps switching the wine glasses and the other guy wasn't sure which wine glass had the poison and he keeps second guessing himself.
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=WIFOM
Basically it's circular reasoning. You're sure I'm mafia because Superbia pushed me and Superbia got roleblocked because he pushed my lynch.
Consider that we have two veterans who have flipped scum. How do you know that they didn't kill the people to make those they scumread look bad?
That's an example from the wiki but...
Concept: The Mafia knows that there is a Doctor, and the Doctor's best play is to protect the Cop no matter what, so they should not try to kill the Cop. BUT the Doctor knows this too, and can protect someone other than the Cop in order to have a chance at stopping the night-kill. But the Mafia knows that the Doctor has this option, and they may be able to kill the Cop if the Doctor thinks that they aren't going to try it. But the Doctor knows... etc.
Basically the reasoning here is one of two possibilities
1 Mafia roleblocked Superbia to protect me.
2 Mafia roleblocked Superbia to make me look bad BECAUSE Superbia pushed me.
We have two veterans in the game. Is it not reasonable to think they'd take advantage of newbie towns thinking this?
Also consider that Fecalfeast got killed. I believe FF townread me. He was suspicious of Superbia and ritoky based on tone.
So where does that rationale take you if you're going to conclude on night actions?
Many reasons were thrown out for FF getting killed.
1 Medic dodge
2 Disinformation I think suggested that FF could have been on to someone.
3 No reasonable shot of getting lynched.
It's WIFOM because you can go in circles trying to debate which is the most likely.
That's what that means.
Am I making sense?
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Look at Fecalfeast's last post again:
On May 06 2015 05:53 Fecalfeast wrote:
current scummers: sl, shining, maybe super, maybe ritoky
maybes based on tonereads recently.
town: HtS, disambiguation, -c-
Playing video games til daypost
So based on your rationale, the four in his list might be scum? Or are most likely?
We're down to one scummer, and Shining and sicklucker are both alive.
Superbia has since been confirmed town vigilante.
Based on night actions alone they both can't be scum.
Now you see why night actions are a horrible reason (esp early game) to scumread someone?
That's why I'm asking for a behaviour based argument.
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I know what it means (although I had to look it up).
The options you present don't fit that mold because there's motivation behind them. RB on super to make you look bad is worse (for scum) than simply having you shot incorrectly (if you're town).
If we're talking pure behavior I'd lynch SL. Unfortunately even there I'm influenced by his mechanics (or use of mechanics - math).
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On May 11 2015 01:03 y0su wrote:
The options you present don't fit that mold because there's motivation behind them. RB on super to make you look bad is worse (for scum) than simply having you shot incorrectly (if you're town).
Couple of flaws with this -
Scum also have to keep their mislynch options open. If Superbia shoots incorrectly and I'm flipped town, they also have to fabricate reads for d2.
I am aware this is a WIFOM argument but veteran scumteams have done this before. My point is that all outcomes have to be considered and using just one is dangerous.
Now...
An even bigger flaw in your argument.
You even said yourself just now that Superbia dropped me as a scumread (and he subsequently went off on Stutters).
He pinged Stutters for being an afk lurker and Stutters flips mafia vanilla N2.
So how do I still look bad? Superbia pings Stutters at night and he was roleblocked.
How are you still sure that I'm mafia based on these night actions?
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On May 11 2015 00:31 y0su wrote:
Super pretty much said he was off of voting you right after the d2 started. At that point you didn't have a reason to be afraid of him.
[...]
The strongest thing I currently have is the N1 actions. I'm not going to throw away my vote like Scott did and if that means switching to SL I will - because I do support the arguments for it. If I'm dead either way then I'll keep my vote on you just as a reminder to others.
I questioned him on this as to why he switched his focus N1. First quote out of the gate N1.
On May 05 2015 23:33 Superbia wrote:
Stutters, you were obviously around at EoD. You responded to my ninja ping out within seconds. You were lurking. Why the fuck would you lurk at EoD if you were town?
He said he dropped it after the lynch.
On May 07 2015 03:04 Superbia wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2015 02:48 Half the Sky wrote:On May 07 2015 02:34 Superbia wrote:On May 07 2015 01:45 Half the Sky wrote:
sicklucker and Celestial - evaluate Superbia's behaviour INDEPENDENT of meta (or in this case his RB claim).
There are town and mafia motivations for claiming RB.
My contention is that his behaviour in this game there is a mafia agenda. To sum up my arguments.
1 Loaded questions - both to myself and Stutters - generally unproductive
2 Misdirection plays
3 The quote where he talks in absolutes where he's basically asking to dismiss him as a scum candidate
4 The DT claim request - DT claims this early in the day destroy the day
5 Behaviour EoD 1 was a "toys out the pram" approach to getting me lynched and his read progression was lacking with OMGUS in there
6 Post lynch he has ZERO focus on me and goes off on Stutters
And finally the meta - I am not meta reading it but the above looks very bad, I don't care that he's active because activity alone does not guarantee he's pure. I hate defending myself as town and I fucking hate explaining myself. What is my goal here as mafia? "chaos"? What utter bullshit. I am hard to follow, and it has caused me to get misslynched in the past 2 games, so get over it. I don't explain shit because I hate doing it. I want to find mafia and solve the game, not writes pages of text regarding my thought process. Blargh. 1. Loaded questions? Are you fucking serious? I asked stutters for the rest of the team simply because I wanted to know his mafia reads outside of prp. What other loaded questions were there? And how do they come from a mafia mindset. 2. I genuinely don't even know what this means. Is this an assumption of my underlying mindset? 3. I should be dismissed from being a scum candidate. FF is my favorite player to play with, even if we are differently aligned. He was obviously VT and not a role as well. Why the fuck do I ever put KP on him? And before you bring up WIFOM, I have no reason to cover my ass or to use d1 KP to get WIFOM going. It's absolutely suboptimal. I hunt for PRs with KP, or strong town. You want to paint the world in which I kill my favorite player who is OBVIOUSLY VT and to WASTE THE ROLEBLOCK. Wow, what mafia play. 4. DT claim? What are you even talking about? Is this the whole red check confirm thing I asked because someone softed it? Yeah, I want to know whether a questionable person is adamant about scum-reading (and literally only doing that) one of my townies. 5. Well at least I didn't fucking join the scott wagon like the rest of the "townies", right? I tried to salvage a disastrous d1 by going on you. Yes, I absolutely believed you were mafia at EoD1. Your two "red" reads? Both town. I did not see any real scum hunting, just someone tagging along trying to appear town. Sure, your posts were big, but mafia can make big posts. Even if you flipped town it would've gotten us way more information from the votes than the garbage we have now. 6. Because I re-evaluated you completely and this is the world I want to live in today. Like holy fucking shit. If you are town you are making this game ridiculously hard for me. Regarding #1 - the question where you asked me what I thought of my D1 performance. That was loaded because what does that tell you about my alignment? If I say it's good or bad, then what? Regarding #3 - FF can be a medic dodge or the result of a blue hunt attempt. We will never know. And in the presence of a veteran, you always RB and kill so that people CANNOT claim RB and confirm themselves town. Scum want to limit information. Killing the person you roleblock DOES EXACTLY THAT. Regarding #4, I'm talking about when you said for Stutters to claim if you had a red check on prplhz. Why would you do it so early and try and direct scum actions at night? I could understand a newbie doing this not understanding the ramifications but you are experienced to know this. You get him to out that early in the day, everyone AFK votes the red check and nothing gets done, DT dies that night. In Student 5 this exactly happened, and I don't want that mistake happening again. Regarding #6, you pinged Stutters post-lynch and you read my scum games only D2 so you can't say that you pinged Stutters BECAUSE you re-evaluated me. Because you pinged him BEFORE you read my scum games, not the other way around. 1. If you were going to say either, I would want to know your thought process behind it, and how it has affected your progression of reads (are you re-evaluating, etc.). This is why I don't want to explain shit like this. I don't want scum (and therefore, anyone) to know the idea behind the questions I'm asking. Is it benign? Is it serious? Who knows but me. 3. Except FF was never blue there, and thus a shitty medic dodge. If I thought FF was blue I would've pressured him EoD (or EoN, w/e) for changing his mind on things to generally dodgy reads and see if I can get a better role-read on him. Instead, when Ritoky (iirc) asks me what I think of FF, and I say he's probably still town and I leave it at that. Scum don't give a shit about who they roleblock n1 specifically for this reason. You are going about it the wrong way. I am town and scum had some sort of role-read on me. No idea why. 4. BECAUSE I DONT KNOW HIS ALIGNMENT. He was pushing hard on prp the entire time and he was shady as fuck for lurking EoD1 (still is) and getting caught hard (oh btw, pretty everyone I've caught lurking at EoD1 has been scum during past games). Then all he does is tunnel on prp hard for small, benign reasons and throwing some scum on me (iirc), which is just scummy as fuck. So, I want to know if I need to waste my time reading him or if we can lynch prp and I can re-evaluate from that flip. The whole different game same story thing is cute, but ultimately irrelevant. It's supposed to be about my alignment, not your opinion on cop outing early d2 with a red. Wanting the cop to out with a red in a vacuum is absolutely not alignment indicative, let alone these circumstances (which make it probably more town-indicative). 6. What does this have to do with anything? Maybe I answered your initial question incorrectly: I caught stutters actively lurking red-handedly. I thought it was super scummy, I go after stutters. I saw no reason to keep bashing heads with you since the lynch was already done, and I had room to re-evaluate everything.
I challenged him on this and he had dropped me for that reason N1.
He pinged Stutters N1 and he was roleblocked, funny how Stutters wasn't mentioned in your assessment...
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EBWOP - expand the quote and you'll see where I challenged Superbia on that issue.
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Yeh I also don't understand why you haven't entertained the possibility of Stutters being protected by that roleblock. When he was pinged first thing N1 - yes N1 - for being a scummy lurker.
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Super didn't even shoot at you in reality. I can't explain his actions or reasoning. I also don't see what actions (by confirmed T) after N1 have to do with explaining N1 scum actions. I'm also pretty sure you're not trying to tell me that because super was right about stutters he's right about you...
People see things differently - I'm the only other one that had the (I still presume right) read on Ritoky's (poor) attempt to confuse scum.
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oh shit, you're right... /debunked
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he was pretty adamant about you, dis and stutters at eod/n1
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That still doesn't mean I'm wrong... but it's a big enough hole that I'll switch to SL
gotta fix dinner now, I'll watch a movie and check back about an hour before eod
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Those of you scumreading y0su, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on this latest exchange.
Newb town? Or newb scum?
I need to check into ritoky - note to self...
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On May 11 2015 00:34 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On May 10 2015 18:14 sicklucker wrote:
I would acualy rather see yosu dead over ritoky. My logic is if hes town then hes not going to derp away an auto win an dvote me here like the newer players will Have you seen ritoky's PoE list? It's Shining and myself as the last mafia. Show nested quote +On May 10 2015 06:49 ritoky wrote:
i get home in probably 4 hrs, so i will read it more thoroughly there.
that said, my initial thoughts is that SL has been tunneled pretty hard on me for a lot of the game, which doesn't seem like a winning strat as the last mafia alive. he is high on the lynch list, tunneling me and me flipping town will only put him closer to the lynch so idk...doesn't seem like a winning line of play.
TT statistically likely town
-c- pretty much town
superbia conf town
y0su considered my claim so might be town.
which leaves shining and hts....so after i read your SL read, i should probably read those 2 filters. Not sure what he means by tictock being "statistically likely" but more important, what do you think about his PoE list different from yours? You've PoEed Tictock and y0su, yet you suspect ritoky who provides those reasons for towning two of your PoEs. Thoughts on that?
whats wrong with shining and you as the PoE mafia? ya got beef gurrrl? it kinda makes sense to me, with probably SL being the 3rd lynch in the bunch. it's just hard to envision y0su as mafia for me. full inactive team + a newb mafia who null and scum reads his partners....hard sell for me. TT being statistically likely town refers to the day 1 vote: how mafia tends to have 2 inside the wagon and 1 outside in that particular scenario. TT was outside the wagon as were me and superbia, which would indicate that we are all likely town. further TT seems to give the most shits during a day where the rest of town has gone into pretty much ezmode-ezlyfe. So this leaves SL, HtS, and Shining. With SL having a bunch of plays that don't quite strike home in my head if he was mafia, but meh it's PoE.
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On May 11 2015 01:44 Half the Sky wrote:
Those of you scumreading y0su, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on this latest exchange.
Newb town? Or newb scum?
I need to check into ritoky - note to self...
I honestly think he is a newb who hasn't been able to fully keep up with the thread and you just bullied him into a direction. That's what that felt like.
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Also back post-mother day. Gonna try to solve the game.
Looking at:
- y0su
- ritoky
- sicklucker
- ticktock
Can they/someone point me to mafia/town games of these people? I'll be looking myself in the meanwhile.
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Game will get solved today because I have no plans of dying.
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EPT
