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On April 16 2015 14:19 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2015 14:11 Trfel wrote:On April 16 2015 14:06 The Shining wrote: I think I can buy Trfels defense of his eon reaction, at least for now. Bresh also assumed Stutters was my shot, as did RSo, and I knew it was my shot. It's wifom at best to argue Trf couldn't know which was NKd. But this doesn't mean I think Trfel is town. The flip flopping doesn't feel right, even though I towned him before.
Hence why I'd push Prpl. Votes don't lie. Every scenario I come up with leads to Prpl scum. Him flipping scum also gives us the most information.
Especially since he's apparently one of Trfels strongest town reads.
Or we no lynch, I die tonight(1 less Prpl lynch supporter) & town has one less confirmed town to go with. This could be Trfels scum motivation for a no lynch, if he is scum. We gain no new info but one less confirmed town.
I'm not completely sold on Bresh either but without a cc, I have to believe for now. Why don't votes lie? Votes don't suggest anything. I don't see a reason to be sure that we've ever seriously had scum up for lynch. Sure, prplhz narrowly avoided being lynched, and town died instead. But how does that say anything, other than some of us were wrong? And I already said that if prplhz continues to play in this fashion, I can't continue to townread him. I need to take a detailed look at his meta. I'm not going to make any careful reads until the later part of the day. I have a paper to write, I'm busy. I'll keep up with the thread and share thoughts, but I won't seriously push anything until I'm confident (which I can't do without an extremely detailed analysis). Call it confidence. Think back to my last game with you. Or read any one of my town games. If there's one thing I've ever done right in mafia, it's vote analysis. And I pride myself on it. It's how I caught JJB and forced him to NK me that game. It's how I called out Celestial and Scott in my first game, even though we lost. Are you seriously telling me of all people that votes are not a key tool to scum hunting? And that's my point, Trfel. It doesn't say anything until he flips scum. When he does, it puts your hammer on Dwarf in a different light. And it sheds light on all his interactions with the players that are still alive. Remember that Stutters already cased Prpl, too. And HTS was vocally against Prpl. There are plenty of reasons to scum Prpl, not just vote analysis. I guess I'll see you next time. Really looking forward to your re analysis on Prpl. Of course voting analysis is good, I'd be a fool if I said otherwise. (well, I am a fool anyway, but not for this reason)
I just don't see how to effectively use voting analysis in this case, with a bunch of townies beating themselves up and no guarantee that scum was ever up for lynch. Unless you can show otherwise, voting analysis is mainly unflipped association analysis.
Dead people are suspicions of prplhz. That doesn't make him scum? I respect their opinions, just like I respect Onegu's opinions. It's something to take into consideration, but not proof. I already showed why I don't like Stutters695's case on prplhz (maybe prplhz is scum, but not for those reasons, unless I'm thinking of the wrong post).
I have yet to see anyone explain how prplhz's Day 1 play is from mafia. It seems that I'll need to check his meta myself, unless someone else wants to analyze it and post actual (unbiased) results. But prplhz was actively leading the thread, which isn't something he needs to do as mafia (and isn't something that I expected from him as either alignment).
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On April 16 2015 14:36 jarjarbinks wrote:Show nested quote +On April 13 2015 13:51 jarjarbinks wrote:On April 13 2015 13:39 rsoultin wrote:On April 13 2015 07:54 jarjarbinks wrote: Wow....hope to actually play with you next time HF.
Reasons why HF was killed that I can think of
1. HF can read another vet well or is good at this game? I have no experience with the guy 2. Scum doesn't want to reveal anything 3. Scum is not worried about anyone so far
#2 is probably most likely...if anyone think #3 is very possible we might need to check our highly townread people in the game (bresh? tube?) or doublecheck at the highly scumread right now (dwarf? stutters?) this post was interesting to me have you looked into who you think is scum given the second option yet? I started it, im super behind on my reads sheet so I tried to go with whoever it appeared were each persons top 3 scum. It has a lot of issues with is but in general there were some people who weren't being scummed much and some people who were being towned a ton. People who weren't on top town or top scum the most: Onegu HTS JJB Tube People who were top 3 town most: Prp Tube Bresh JJB Granted, this analysis has flaws. And note I AM ON BOTH, so if anything it I'm showing that I am not altering the analysis AT ALL. I think if I had my reads stuff updated this would be better, and there was a few people that it was hard to tell who their top scum/town were while others it was easier to ascertain. this one tube dissed it Hm, thanks for quoting that post. It actually looks quite suspicious
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Well, I need sleep. I'll catch up later.
Good night, and happy scumhunting.
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On April 16 2015 18:01 Tubesock wrote:I think I know what's going on. While I think I'm right, I will acknowledge I was wrong on TheBloodyDwarf. I don't always get all the scum, but I at least get two. Anyway, what I'm thinking. Soren333 was widely towned. Others too probably but I think he was the most towned. In his filter he scummed TheBloodyDwarf, Onegu, Prplhz, Slotspot, and Bourneq. Holyflare subs in. So, doubly obvious night kill. Half the Sky was also widely towned. Trfel and many others of you already agreed she was the obvious night kill. What were her big things? Big case on Onegu. Who was under suspicion? Breshke. Who was scumread? Bourneq. Plotspot. Show nested quote +On April 12 2015 06:01 LoneMeow wrote:
plotspot the Vanilla Townie is lynched!
Final vote count:
TheBloodyDwarf (1): Soren333, Breshke, Tubesock, The Shining, Tubesock Breshke (0): Onegu The Shining (1): plotspot Bourneq (0): prplhz plotspot (7): Onegu, Breshke, rsoultin, prplhz, Bourneq, Soren333, Stutters695, jarjarbinks, Half the Sky, Onegu prplhz (0): TheBloodyDwarf Stutters695 (4): prplhz, Tubesock, TheBloodyDwarf, Half the Sky
Here's Half the Sky's assessment of Onegu's vote: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/480171-newbie-student-mafia-vii?page=61#1220 I also think that Onegu's vote on Breshke was a joke. He didn't say hardly anything about it (typical Onegu behavior though) and then came in calling us idiots for not being on the "scumclaim". I asked him where his vote was and then "oh "forgot" ##Vote: lotspot. I think he was obviously looking to change his vote, that vote wasn't serious at all. Patterns.... TheBloodyDwarf Show nested quote +On April 15 2015 06:01 LoneMeow wrote:
TheBloodyDwarf the Vanilla Townie is lynched!
Final vote count:
TheBloodyDwarf (5): Bourneq, The Shining, Tubesock, rsoultin, Trfel Breshke (0): rsoultin The Shining (1): Breshke , rsoultin, Trfel , TheBloodyDwarf Bourneq (1): prplhz Half the Sky (0): prplhz, rsoultin, Tubesock prplhz (4): Stutters695, jarjarbinks, Half the Sky, Breshke Stutters695 (0): Breshke
Stutters695 while vigi shot, there is still information. It's not as solid or anything, but things of note. He scummed Breshke. Trfel also said Stuters695 was on his most suspicious list before Stutters died. Breshke last words about Stutters while alive were "I can't vote him now but I hope I don't regret it." then votes The Shining. I'll have individual cases on the three as well tomorrow. We have time to talk about it. Just dropping in to say that this says nothing. Assuming that Tubesock's scum team (me, Breshke, and Bourneq) is correct:
First. Replacements don't necessarily copy the reads of the player they replaced, since that simply doesn't work. Holyflare had no reads.
Second, Half the Sky was townreading me. She made a case on me at one point, and was then townreading me. I would have no reason to get rid of her except purely for her influence and scumhunting. Furthermore, her strongest scumread was prplhz, who you are saying is town here. Was this the mafia team you are suggesting, I would kill rsoultin, who was townreading prplhz.
Third, Bourneq is a strange situation (assuming he is scum). I don't think there is anyone who isn't willing to lynch him at this point, it's just risky since he is hard to read. You simply can't protect him through night kills, the way you protect him is being more vocal and making other people appear scummier, so they get lynched instead.
Fourth, me having Stutters695 as suspicious when he died makes me scum why? Because I was wrong?
You don't have any reasons why I am scum. All you have is a misrepresented explanation that portrays events to fit a preconceived notion, which still doesn't suggest that I am scum.
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Remaining Players
Breshke Trfel rsoultin prplhz jarjarbinks Bourneq The Shining Tubesock
This means that three of the following are mafia: rsoultin, prplhz, jarjarbinks, Bourneq, and Tubesock
The problem arises in that I found reason to townread four of these (all except Bourneq), and reason to not lynch Bourneq.
My initial suspicion is that jarjarbinks is mafia here. He tricked rsoultin and I last game. Here, he started off very strong, but I get the feeling that his play has fallen off significantly. I know that rsoultin says this isn't alignment indicative, but it still seems suspicious to me. Furthermore, that jarjarbinks post that I mentioned does look suspicious, as he is doing analysis without conclusion (analysis that can't lead to a conclusion, which he did last game as mafia) and bothered to justify his analysis (what motivation would have have to lie?).
I still lean towards rsoultin being town. While her play hasn't been at the highest possible level, it's definitely within her town range. I need to take a close look at her filter, but I expect her to be town here.
Tubesock is difficult. I could easily see him being mafia here except for his two crazy theories (first for TheBloodyDwarf being godfather, second for me, Breshke, and Bourneq being the scum team). I'm not sure if he is capable of this as mafia. However, I notice that his second crazy theory was posted after the claims, thus after he started getting suspected.
Prplhz is looking more and more suspicious with time. I have yet to check his meta, but it is easier for more experienced players to seem impressive in a newbie game. This could help explain prplhz as scum.
I'll take a guess for now that the mafia team is jarjarbinks, prplhz, and Bourneq. I probably won't get a chance to check this until this evening at earliest, though I'll try my best to keep up with the thread (you guys are interesting, and funny!).
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Tubesock's first theory about TheBloodyDwarf actually does quite a lot for him. I just don't see how that comes into a mafia thought process. I mean, it's possible, I just don't think it's all that likely.
Assuming that Tubesock is mafia, with regards to his TheBloodyDwarf godfather theory:
Something would have to prompt him. Perhaps he is the godfather himself, or perhaps someone else was the godfather and had a discussion about playing to a cop check. The problem is that mafia knows the setup, and knows that there is no cop in this game. Thus, in all likelihood, the godfather sees their role and then sees the setup and knows that they are effectively a mafia goon. And they wouldn't even get to the point of thinking about how to play for a cop check.
Furthermore, Tubesock hasn't ever played mafia before. It would be very impressive for him to be able to do this in his first game as mafia. I need to check again to see how his play is outside of these two main theories, but for now, I don't really think he is mafia. On an unrelated note, I don't think that rsoultin still being alive says much about jarjarbinks's alignment. Last game, jarjarbinks's desire to remain hidden helped lead him to kill rsoultin on Night 1 (though, that was the correct kill regardless). However, that was a 9 player game, thus there were only two mafia, and the other one was a lurker. This game has three mafia, and so killing jarjarbinks's sister isn't necessarily a priority for scum here. I would definitely see mafia killing Holyflare here no matter what, and I can easily see mafia killing Half the Sky over rsoultin, especially knowing that Breshke is scumreading rsoultin.
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On April 17 2015 00:46 prplhz wrote: unless, there was some crap about us getting another lynch if we lynch roleblocker? i guess we have 33% chance of hitting him if we lynch jjb/bourneq and then you guys can lynch me all you want Now that the veteran has claimed, this argument is basically nullified. Since mafia would just leave the veteran alive until the end of the game.
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Prplhz, can you explain to me why you are town here?
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On April 17 2015 01:10 prplhz wrote: like if i say "this and that makes me town" aren't you just going to say "HAH! that's just something you did so that later you could say 'this and that makes me town'"? Of course that's a possibility.
It would just be nice to see the reasons why you say you are town so I can see how they compare with my reasons, and plus it could save me some time. But it's not a big deal if you don't want to share, I understand why.
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I just feel that it could save me some time. I would make sure I didn't miss any reasons you feel are key, and I could avoid spending as much time making sure I got every reason (expecting you to get all of the big ones). That's all.
I'll probably have to take a detailed look at your filter and meta very soon anyway.
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On April 17 2015 01:35 prplhz wrote: trfel if i convince you that i am town will you lynch rso today? Nope. I'll lynch rsoultin if you convince me that rsoultin is scum.
Because rsoultin (if she is scum) is probably the hardest player to catch, I'm not very interested in catching her today. If I conclude that she is town (which I currently consider fairly likely), I wouldn't have the time to do much else at all. Therefore, I would prefer to look at other scum and look at rsoultin more closely tomorrow.
There are two situations which would lead me to lynch rsoultin first. One is no-lynching, such that I have time to look into it properly. Another is if someone else provides strong evidence that rsoultin is scum.
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On April 17 2015 01:42 prplhz wrote: okay who the fuck will you lynch then if you wont lynch me? will you just lynch jjb then bourneq and then me? because if i'm going to get lynched i prefer it being today. I am not really sure yet. There seem to be a lot of people who want to lynch you. It really depends on your filter and your meta.
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I'm well aware that as of late, my play has been extremely disappointing and quite poor. And for that I apologize.
Later tonight I should have more time to play the game. I will do my best to prove my alignment (through my scumhunting) and to catch the scum. I'm looking forward to it quite a bit.
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Tubesock....
Sorry, but I can't lynch an non-cc'd blue. Breshke is absolutely town unless someone counterclaims. Everything else simply doesn't matter.
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Just read over the first page of Tubesock's filter. He actually could be scum here.
His early posts seem to be more white knighting, and he's providing fewer useful scumreads than I expected. Perhaps it's just confirmation bias, though.
When I get out of class, I'll take a look at the rest of it.
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On April 17 2015 03:43 Tubesock wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2015 03:34 Trfel wrote: Just read over the first page of Tubesock's filter. He actually could be scum here.
His early posts seem to be more white knighting, and he's providing fewer useful scumreads than I expected. Perhaps it's just confirmation bias, though.
When I get out of class, I'll take a look at the rest of it. How much thought have you put into me before this post? Only what I collected on you in my four catch-up posts, and what came up in discussion.
On April 17 2015 03:37 prplhz wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2015 03:34 Trfel wrote: Just read over the first page of Tubesock's filter. He actually could be scum here.
His early posts seem to be more white knighting, and he's providing fewer useful scumreads than I expected. Perhaps it's just confirmation bias, though.
When I get out of class, I'll take a look at the rest of it. why do you make a giant post saying you'll look over me and rso and then you go and look over tube? I had five minutes. You and prplhz are bigger tasks. I posted what I did because I wanted to see what people said, and in hopes that others would look into the things that I mentioned.
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On April 17 2015 03:37 Tubesock wrote:So far we have murdered two town. There's no one who stands out as mafia just yet. Several of you have mentioned how bad a spot town is in right now. What are our options? Breshke does some hail mary play. Trfel mentions no lynch, oh scratch that let's lynch we can have all the blues out themselves. Why the hurry on knowing the blues? Maybe it's just bad play on my part but I think that making Mafia guess for another day could be a good idea. But this argument isn't important. Prplhz is at least looking in different areas (albeit wrong on Rsoultin). I can see he's reevaluating and thinking about things. And not bluehunting or centering around policy talk. He's pushing a lynch. I was first suspicious of Trfel when Stutters695 posted this: Show nested quote +On April 14 2015 14:36 Stutters695 wrote:On April 14 2015 13:17 Tubesock wrote:On April 14 2015 13:10 Trfel wrote: I agree that The Shining/Ace1312's slot doesn't look very good, but that's mostly for activity. I'm ignoring it for now.
At the same time, I almost wonder if he could have an easier time jumping into the thread if he is scum? Scum replacements don't really have to read the thread, they can sort of make stuff up and hope to get by. Especially in a newbie game. Obviously that isn't a very effective way to play, but many people claim to play scum without reading the thread. I don't think I agree with this at all. People are asking you stuff since you're here. If he showed up people will be asking him stuff too. In my 2nd game a newbie (I don't remember the name of it, but you were nightkilled N1 trfel in it) There was a replacement scum Scott1313371234123541235 for Gumdrops. Gum made 2 posts and was replaced. Scott's entrance was a thread sentiment list post with nice little links to the post for each player that expressed his read. He HAD to show us he read the thread and was eventually caught up. He would have died right then. Same with you, you HAVE to show you've read town or mafia. Like, you get leeway but not a pardon. This is a real good post. Followed by this: Show nested quote +On April 14 2015 14:37 Stutters695 wrote:On April 14 2015 14:00 Trfel wrote: So far, I'm not impressed with TheBloodyDwarf at all. His play is clearly not towny, there is no question of that. I guess I could see him being a stubborn SC2 Mafia player who is new to a forum mafia environment. But then, he clearly stated, in bold, that this isn't SC2 mafia. From there, I expected to see him attempting to play the forum mafia style (not necessarily succeeding, just attempting). And I haven't seen that at all yet.
His late vote without explanation pushed him from null to scum lean.
My current lynch pool is as follows (no particular order): TheBloodyDwarf, Stutters695, The Shining, and Bourneq Is this guy scum? I really want to lynch him. I didn't understand why Stutters695 would say what he did. I didn't really say anything in my post. I was defending The Shining on the weak premise that I didn't think town necessarily had to prove that they read the thread as fast as possible. It wasn't even a real defense, it was simply give the guy some time. Trfel was all up in his ass. I then realized I haven't read Onegu's filter in awhile. I basically dropped it once Trfel started doing his summaries in spoilers. That definitely looked like a ton of work. A little later I noticed something kinda funny. Prplhz and Stutters695 were going at each other for the same reasons. TheBloodyDwarf tinfoils me. The replacements are going at it. It was ironic. I was just getting a nagging feeling that Prplhz and Stutters695 were both town. Trfel I didn't see anything scummy in. He was putting in a lot of work and showing that he was thinking about the game. He was super town. I started to reread Onegu. Half the Sky has a good case on him. I already posted it, it was big I doubt any of you missed it when she posted it. Onegu's "big" contribution is his suspicion of Rsoultin. Which is if you guys bother to look into his filter is because she didn't town him, and Rsoultin can read him better than anyone. She must be mafia. But uh, what happens if HE is mafia? Up to this point, you've said absolutely nothing.On April 17 2015 03:37 Tubesock wrote:I thought his actions on Breshke, and his eod vote was weird. I attributed it to the drugs. He replaced out, so it's obviously legit. But it also seemed like he wasn't particularly serious about his Breshke vote, and knew that by the time he got back in thread there would be another wagon that will look good to jump on to. Sure enough a "scumclaim". Onegu towned Bourneq for scumming TheBloodyDwarf. Show nested quote +On April 10 2015 23:33 Onegu wrote:On April 10 2015 18:54 Bourneq wrote: Good morning!
Dwarf I am interested in how you did not know what scum means. It is meantioned twice in the OP and twice in the followup post right after. Seeing how you missed the part about editing it makes a bit more sense since you obviously did not read the thing. But under coaches for example it says Town: Scum: It is pretty hard to missunderstand what scum in this context means. As a fellow newbie I understand you could be speaking the truth but did you really not read the OP? Prplhz I actually like this post, wouldn't lynch him today for this post Before this Onegu does give Bourneq heat. I think it's safe to "bus" him in this case as Onegu isn't exactly known to be forceful with his lynch targets. Alone this reaction means nothing. But in context.... But you know, he did claim town and not VT so we shouldn't be worried. Show nested quote +On April 10 2015 08:20 Onegu wrote:
It's my meta if I claimed VT that's when you should look out for me.
So, Onegu's play is what Trfel is stuck with. He's smart, he knows he can't explain any of it. The best strategy by far is to compensate for it. He knows that he has a reputation for solid case building and analysis. As town he knows he will get some heat if he doesn't perform. He did a little, but it didn't last very long and he quickly became massively townread for his massive effort. I care about Onegu's reads because he is smart, and I know that he is town. I don't care to investigate Onegu's alignment or argue the specifics of it, and for obvious reasons. If you choose to scumread or townread me for Onegu's play, fine.On April 17 2015 03:37 Tubesock wrote:HtS and Stutters die. 3 minutes after Day post: Show nested quote +On April 16 2015 06:03 Trfel wrote: I figured that Half the Sky would die.
But why would the vigilante possibly save their shot? And why would they ever shoot Stutters695?
Newbie games are loaded with vigilante targets. Bourneq was far and away the best candidate.
Well, we're now at MYLO. I don't even know if we're allowed to mislynch(corrects this to No Lynch)? Pushes No Lynch. Thirty minutes later: Show nested quote +On April 16 2015 06:32 Trfel wrote: I guess, part of me is tempted to just go ahead and lynch today now.
Don't get me wrong, no lynch is definitely the best play. But lynching feels like it will just speed things up, and I'm not sure how much of a difference it will make. We're kind of dead either way.
I can go with whatever people want to do.
I also retract my super strong townread on Breshke now. Reread the thread from Day 3 post on. To me I think mafia Trfel has every incentive to post exactly like he is. There is a light at the end of the tunnel for him if we lynch today. This could be a town Trfel too. I read Breshke's and Trfel's interactions together and I can't help to think it looks like a play. Like teamwork. Then I have the revelation. MAFIA CAN ALL WORK ON THE THREAD ANALYSIS THAT TRFEL DID. He's not necessarily the only one doing it. I have played team sports all my life. I can't imagine the mafia team in their own private QT wouldn't coordinate and execute plays. I get many don't, they stay fluid and whatnot but it seems silly to discard that. Trfel could be town. All I ask is reread the guy and think about how a scumTrfel replacement would have to act. How is Day 3 play so far can easily be mafia motivated. He's fully capable of playing this way as mafia and he wants the lynch today. He doesn't think we are going to lynch mafia. There are two points here. The first point you make is that I went back and forth between lynching and no-lynching.
I've already explained that there is value in no-lynching, because we get time to investigate things and make the best decision. However, there is no value in no-lynching if people want to lynch, or if people don't want to use the extra time to actually work. If you took a closer look at your scumread of me, you would notice that I have said this multiple times, and rsoultin (who you are townreading) has expressed the same sentiments. Furthermore, if you look at my past games, you will see that when I (and the rest of town) is feeling tired and in a bad spot in the game, I'm willing to take a riskier lynch to speed things along (see Down Under 2, where I lynched someone who might be scum over someone who was guaranteed to be scum under the assumption that town wouldn't care enough to investigate properly such that the additional time would make a difference).
Second point, the entire mafia team worked on the analysis that I did. This I find rather interesting.
Realize that I pointed out to everyone that mafia could work together to feed people analysis/reads. Yet you don't mention at all that it was me who first suggested this.
Realize that my posting style is rather unique. I use capitalization, periods, and tend to be semi-formal at all times. I would definitely have to retype and revisit everything that people would tell me to say. It's possible that mafia guided me in the general reads that I should arrive at, but I definitely did the majority of the work myself.
You conclude by arguing that I am scum because I want to lynch today. You realize that my vote is currently on no-lynch?
Basically, you haven't presented any reasons why I am scum. You presented a ton of fluff, a ton of clear misinterpretations. You presented a few arguments on Onegu (maybe they have some validity, but I don't care). And you've claimed that I could do everything I have done as scum. But you haven't shown anything whatsoever that actually suggests that I am scum from my own play.
To everyone else: I think that Tubesock is better than this. Look at the length of his post and compare it to the amount of substance. Contrast this with his earlier theory on TheBloodyDwarf. Tubesock here is feeling more lazy, and less interested, where Tubesock would be extremely motivated due to having caught the scum team and needing to make everyone else see his point. I wonder if Tubesock is mafia and making a token effort on a read he knows isn't true, and is less motivated because he knows that he is in trouble.
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Hi jarjarbinks,
I see it. I'm working on a post on Tubesock, because I need to go soon, and I'd like to get it out before I leave if possible (not sure I can, though). I'll take a look at your analysis after.
One thing I notice is that for your survival, you kind of need to call prplhz and Tubesock both scum. I'm assuming Bourneq is the final scum?
The Night 2 kill, again, that would have been Half the Sky regardless of whether or not her reads were good. I don't think the night kill itself implicates prplhz here (though it does suggest that it might be a good idea to borrow Half the Sky's read).
I could certainly see the scum team being prplhz, Tubesock, and Bourneq.
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I think that Tubesock is my preferred lynch for the day.
##unvote ##vote Tubesock
I need to head out now. But I see a lot of suspicious progressions in his reads, and he hasn't been providing much original content (outside of his two big theories). More will follow when I get the chance.
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Actually, I just realized.
Bourneq is almost certainly scum here.
He is mafia's easiest mislynch. And he's been largely ignored for quite some time. If Bourneq were town, mafia would almost certainly push him. That's more than enough for me.
##unvote ##vote Bourneq
Bourneq is almost certainly mafia, Tubesock is probably mafia. One more between prplhz, rsoultin, and jarjarbinks.
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