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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On April 15 2015 12:38 jarjarbinks wrote: looking for gems tomorrow: D2 votes with D1 votes prp bresh tube stutters shining i'll be around for about 10 min then i'm crashing this was the list? no clue what you're even talking about here | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On April 16 2015 13:58 The Shining wrote: I still think lynching Prpl gives us our best shot at nailing scum and salvaging this game.. He's got a vote on one of, if not the, largest filters in the game and has been mia since. Plus I feel guilty about killing Stutters. Maybe he was actually onto something here. I didn't get any sort of good feeling over Prp's refusal to really interact with me n2 either. If majority goes no lynch, we go no lynch. But if we're lynching, I'm pushing Prpl. -_- he's been falling off steadily, it's true, but really i don't see how if scum wants to divide the votes they go with me, unless breshke is town and they were banking on bresh following suit which i'm just going to assume bresh is town for now for obv reasons | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
Hence why I'd push Prpl. Votes don't lie. Every scenario I come up with leads to Prpl scum. Him flipping scum also gives us the most information. Especially since he's apparently one of Trfels strongest town reads. Or we no lynch, I die tonight(1 less Prpl lynch supporter) & town has one less confirmed town to go with. This could be Trfels scum motivation for a no lynch, if he is scum. We gain no new info but one less confirmed town. I'm not completely sold on Bresh either but without a cc, I have to believe for now. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
On April 16 2015 14:03 rsoultin wrote: -_- he's been falling off steadily, it's true, but really i don't see how if scum wants to divide the votes they go with me, unless breshke is town and they were banking on bresh following suit which i'm just going to assume bresh is town for now for obv reasons That's a viable scenario, given the vet claim. Also thanks for that jjb list post. I remember being confused about it but I forgot about it. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
On April 16 2015 14:03 rsoultin wrote: -_- he's been falling off steadily, it's true, but really i don't see how if scum wants to divide the votes they go with me, unless breshke is town and they were banking on bresh following suit which i'm just going to assume bresh is town for now for obv reasons Also there's 8 of us. 3 scum. Breshke was scumming you pretty hard before, and had us on a scum team together. You don't think if Breshke would've been willing to vote you abd leave | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On April 16 2015 14:06 The Shining wrote: Why don't votes lie? Votes don't suggest anything. I don't see a reason to be sure that we've ever seriously had scum up for lynch.I think I can buy Trfels defense of his eon reaction, at least for now. Bresh also assumed Stutters was my shot, as did RSo, and I knew it was my shot. It's wifom at best to argue Trf couldn't know which was NKd. But this doesn't mean I think Trfel is town. The flip flopping doesn't feel right, even though I towned him before. Hence why I'd push Prpl. Votes don't lie. Every scenario I come up with leads to Prpl scum. Him flipping scum also gives us the most information. Especially since he's apparently one of Trfels strongest town reads. Or we no lynch, I die tonight(1 less Prpl lynch supporter) & town has one less confirmed town to go with. This could be Trfels scum motivation for a no lynch, if he is scum. We gain no new info but one less confirmed town. I'm not completely sold on Bresh either but without a cc, I have to believe for now. Sure, prplhz narrowly avoided being lynched, and town died instead. But how does that say anything, other than some of us were wrong? And I already said that if prplhz continues to play in this fashion, I can't continue to townread him. I need to take a detailed look at his meta. I'm not going to make any careful reads until the later part of the day. I have a paper to write, I'm busy. I'll keep up with the thread and share thoughts, but I won't seriously push anything until I'm confident (which I can't do without an extremely detailed analysis). | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
You don't think if Breshke voted you with Prpl, the other 2 scum wouldn't join in and make sure you got to 4 first? Then it becomes a vote race. A shitty one, as the counter wagon would've likely been me. Looks like an attempt for scum to win. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On April 16 2015 14:11 The Shining wrote: Hm, this actually makes a lot of sense.Ebwop: stupid fucking phone. Last question should be: You don't think if Breshke voted you with Prpl, the other 2 scum wouldn't join in and make sure you got to 4 first? Then it becomes a vote race. A shitty one, as the counter wagon would've likely been me. Looks like an attempt for scum to win. It's a terrible reason to scumread prplhz, but it does negate the reason to townread him (pushing on rsoultin). Tubesock also gets no town points for trying to push on me, since it is so soon after prplhz got town points (now retracted) from pushing rsoultin. It doesn't work twice (or in this case, once). I'll take a very close look at prplhz tomorrow. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On April 16 2015 14:11 The Shining wrote: Ebwop: stupid fucking phone. Last question should be: You don't think if Breshke voted you with Prpl, the other 2 scum wouldn't join in and make sure you got to 4 first? Then it becomes a vote race. A shitty one, as the counter wagon would've likely been me. Looks like an attempt for scum to win. that's actually quite possible, when you put it that way >< except obviously it didn't happen heh i'm ridiculously hard to lynch, but all it takes is one tunneled townie in this case when there are 3 scum...>< didn't think it through that far when it happened, tbh, just got as far as wtf me?! are you high? lol | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
On April 16 2015 14:11 Trfel wrote: Why don't votes lie? Votes don't suggest anything. I don't see a reason to be sure that we've ever seriously had scum up for lynch. Sure, prplhz narrowly avoided being lynched, and town died instead. But how does that say anything, other than some of us were wrong? And I already said that if prplhz continues to play in this fashion, I can't continue to townread him. I need to take a detailed look at his meta. I'm not going to make any careful reads until the later part of the day. I have a paper to write, I'm busy. I'll keep up with the thread and share thoughts, but I won't seriously push anything until I'm confident (which I can't do without an extremely detailed analysis). Call it confidence. Think back to my last game with you. Or read any one of my town games. If there's one thing I've ever done right in mafia, it's vote analysis. And I pride myself on it. It's how I caught JJB and forced him to NK me that game. It's how I called out Celestial and Scott in my first game, even though we lost. Are you seriously telling me of all people that votes are not a key tool to scum hunting? And that's my point, Trfel. It doesn't say anything until he flips scum. When he does, it puts your hammer on Dwarf in a different light. And it sheds light on all his interactions with the players that are still alive. Remember that Stutters already cased Prpl, too. And HTS was vocally against Prpl. There are plenty of reasons to scum Prpl, not just vote analysis. I guess I'll see you next time. Really looking forward to your re analysis on Prpl. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
anyway, i'm gonna try to finish up my midterm tomorrow then go through filters so...by tomorrow night i should have something | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On April 16 2015 14:19 The Shining wrote: Of course voting analysis is good, I'd be a fool if I said otherwise. (well, I am a fool anyway, but not for this reason)Call it confidence. Think back to my last game with you. Or read any one of my town games. If there's one thing I've ever done right in mafia, it's vote analysis. And I pride myself on it. It's how I caught JJB and forced him to NK me that game. It's how I called out Celestial and Scott in my first game, even though we lost. Are you seriously telling me of all people that votes are not a key tool to scum hunting? And that's my point, Trfel. It doesn't say anything until he flips scum. When he does, it puts your hammer on Dwarf in a different light. And it sheds light on all his interactions with the players that are still alive. Remember that Stutters already cased Prpl, too. And HTS was vocally against Prpl. There are plenty of reasons to scum Prpl, not just vote analysis. I guess I'll see you next time. Really looking forward to your re analysis on Prpl. I just don't see how to effectively use voting analysis in this case, with a bunch of townies beating themselves up and no guarantee that scum was ever up for lynch. Unless you can show otherwise, voting analysis is mainly unflipped association analysis. Dead people are suspicions of prplhz. That doesn't make him scum? I respect their opinions, just like I respect Onegu's opinions. It's something to take into consideration, but not proof. I already showed why I don't like Stutters695's case on prplhz (maybe prplhz is scum, but not for those reasons, unless I'm thinking of the wrong post). I have yet to see anyone explain how prplhz's Day 1 play is from mafia. It seems that I'll need to check his meta myself, unless someone else wants to analyze it and post actual (unbiased) results. But prplhz was actively leading the thread, which isn't something he needs to do as mafia (and isn't something that I expected from him as either alignment). | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On April 16 2015 13:59 rsoultin wrote: hmmmm so you're saying you think the HF shot happened because scum was sitting easy and didn't have to worry about anything after day 1? lol >< i can see that thought process for sure if prp's not scum you probably are xP who is your third scum, jjb...do you have one? Less confident in this one: Bourneq. Tube doesn't really discuss D2. Prp votes him D1 but doesn't push-switches. D2 votes him but doesn't push-stays on because it didn't matter (or was actually gone). Would fit the theory too in my opinion. You would be an interesting 3rd choice, but it's hard to believe that your both scum considering your actions with each other. You would fit my theory fantastically well though. What do you think of Tube | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On April 16 2015 14:00 rsoultin wrote: this was the list? no clue what you're even talking about here no let me find it | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
jjb jjb jjb not answering questions does not make me happy >< i may have to...hmmm...shortsheet your bed when you come to visit in may! the hoooorrrooorroor | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On April 13 2015 13:51 jarjarbinks wrote: I started it, im super behind on my reads sheet so I tried to go with whoever it appeared were each persons top 3 scum. It has a lot of issues with is but in general there were some people who weren't being scummed much and some people who were being towned a ton. People who weren't on top town or top scum the most: Onegu HTS JJB Tube People who were top 3 town most: Prp Tube Bresh JJB Granted, this analysis has flaws. And note I AM ON BOTH, so if anything it I'm showing that I am not altering the analysis AT ALL. I think if I had my reads stuff updated this would be better, and there was a few people that it was hard to tell who their top scum/town were while others it was easier to ascertain. this one tube dissed it | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On April 16 2015 14:35 rsoultin wrote: lol speak of the devil >< lol got her | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
yes it was! i know what your other list was and you already explained that i'm trying to figure out what you were doing in this post? o.0 | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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