Eden, now that ritoky and Onegu have claimed VT...

What do you think about the game's power role balance?

2 vigilantes
1 jailkeeper
1 cop

Is that fair for a 15 town vs 5 scum game?

Thanks!

With scum rb and framer? I'd buy it

Trfel

7015 Posts

March 25 2015 04:49 GMT

#6512

Eden, am I right to trust you in this game?

Trfel

7015 Posts

March 25 2015 04:56 GMT

#6513

I just feel really terrible that I don't have a great grasp of what is happening this game. And that means I'm not playing at my highest level. And so I can't trust myself, I end up relying on others.

And the more the game goes on, the more I feel wholly responsible if we end up losing.

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

March 25 2015 04:57 GMT

#6514

sicklucker confirmed town.

Let's see.

People I never lynch:
Eden
Trfel
Toad
Vivax
sicklucker

The rest:
Onegu
Damdred
Artanis
Fecalfeast
Breshke
Superbia
ritoky
Alakaslam

10 to 3, no more extra KP, should be 3 MLs and 3 mafia. I just need 2 people to escape that list and I can POE the game. Cool!

I'd evacuate Damdred, Onegu and Breshke. I think I can make pretty good town cases on all of them. That leaves five kills and as long as we hit mafia at any point before running out of MLs, we have the opportunity to reconsider the two-vigs theory if we haven't won by the time we lynch the rest of the list.

And that's a pretty conservative list to me. The never kills are me, the two vigs for whom there is strong evidence to suggest both are true, and the two people who straight up killed scum with the orb. Damdred and Breshke are my top evacuations because both of them are putting forth pretty insightful analysis that's far more reminiscent of their town games. I'm not saying it's out of bounds of their scum games per se but they'd both have to have stepped up significantly. Onegu I just don't think is mafia fakeclaiming mason - Vivax made the point that it really makes no sense for mafia to shoot Holyflare if they want to pimp the Onegu-is-mason theory, since they know Holyflare is making up the mason thing and thus shooting him and flipping him spoils the whole thing.

That already leaves me with five people, and of them it's hard for me to believe that Superbia and Artanis are on a team. If we assume Artanis is mafia, then Superbia's case is hella good. Do we really think the mafia sacs the one player that infiltrated the town circle to prop up a guy who was afk while town started trying to solve the game? Didn't think so. So there's at least 2 mafia outside of this duo.

Of the rest, I can see townie cases for Fecalfeast and for ritoky. I think ritoky is more likely to flip scum but I figure I can sort that out later. These guys don't have to be opposite-aligned, but unless both of them are mafia...

Slam is mafia.

So honestly my question for today is "Am I in a world where Fecalfeast and ritoky are both mafia?" If not then we 100% lynch Slam. If so then we 100% lynch them.

Meanwhile I will leave Superbia and Artanis to their duel.

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

March 25 2015 04:58 GMT

#6515

On March 25 2015 13:49 Trfel wrote:
Eden, am I right to trust you in this game?

Ya. Why wouldn't you be?

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

March 25 2015 05:01 GMT

#6516

Literally this is how today should go.

1. Are Artanis and Superbia both town?
If yes goto 3.
If no goto 2.

2. Are Fecalfeast and ritoky both mafia?
If yes lynch either one.
If no goto 3.

3. Lynch Slam

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

March 25 2015 05:04 GMT

#6517

All my possible mafia teams rn:

Artanis/Fecalfeast/ritoky
Superbia/Fecalfeast/ritoky
Artanis/Fecalfeast/Alakaslam
Artanis/ritoky/Alakaslam
Superbia/Fecalfeast/Alakaslam
Superbia/ritoky/Alakaslam

Alakaslam: 67% chance scum
Fecalfeast: 67% chance scum
ritoky: 67% chance scum
Superbia: 50% chance scum
Artanis: 50% chance scum

Lynch should be among Slam/FF/ritoky. Slam easily scummiest of the 3.

Trfel

7015 Posts

March 25 2015 05:05 GMT

#6518

I don't see why Onegu is town yet. The following assumes Onegu is mafia:

Choosing to fake mason with Holyflare makes sense. He gets basic towncredit, and it gives him room to rescind his mason claim later. This didn't affect mafia's night kill, if anything this would have affected Onegu's initial decision. It's not like Holyflare was going to let Onegu slide on a mason claim if it became detrimental to town anyway.

Basically, Onegu gets a little towncredit and gives him room to pull out of mason claims later in the game.

And I'm still worried about ritoky. I think his scumplay was extremely solid in Down Under 2. I don't see him doing anything so far that he couldn't do as scum. The only reason to townread him was Palmar being suspicious of raynpelikoneet, but apparently a lot of people were suspicious of him, so some pressure doesn't seem that unlikely. That said, I didn't read this part of the game.

Please correct me if I'm wrong on any of this.

sicklucker

Canada16987 Posts

March 25 2015 05:08 GMT

#6519

I think you guys are making it a little complex.

We have super who wanted me lynched over a confirmed mafia (ls). But stopped his push when hf pushed a town. This alone is solid evidence to lynch him at some point. Throw in his scum lurk meta and we got a slam dunk.

Then we have slam and ritoky. Like there all getting lynch. You guys can fight about the order but WE ARE LYNCHING THEM probably in the next 3

sicklucker

Canada16987 Posts

March 25 2015 05:13 GMT

#6520

On March 25 2015 07:29 Damdred wrote:
Also orb user do it to Palmar! Ultimate use out of it