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Probulous
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On February 26 2015 09:17 _Tormented_ wrote: You went from thinking him scum to thinking he could be the cop? reason or just being hypothetical? Yeah don't ask these questions, especially at night time. | ||
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Snarfs tied it up and Shining hammered the lynch but it is reasonable for Snarfs to push the other wagon and Shining jumped in too late to change the lynch targets. Anyway by this point the wagon was rolling strong anyway. I don't think Eden is mafia and besides his vote didn't push the wagon along, it was mine and the others that joined him. I made a major fuck up but my reasons are in thread. Even so Wave was at 2 votes when Snarfs had 4 and Artanis 2. The wagon really got going when Damred, tormented and Tronak came on board. Damred's vote was a consolidation vote and he moved from Snarfs due to his legacy post. Literally this On February 26 2015 08:29 Damdred wrote: ##unvote ##Vote waveLet's do this rd end masculine words have swayed my heart of stone Which doesn't mention my vote 13 minutes earlier. Odd since Artanis and Snarfs were the lead vote contenders until my vote tied up Artanis and Wave and Eden's passionate cry for assistance didn't convince him earlier. Whatever, he hasn't provided the brilliant analysis he promised and has managed to lie low since I stopped pushing him. We lynched town cause he didn't participate so I am loathe to lynch on broken promises again. He clearly isn't in anyone else's sights so moving on. To be honest I'm tired of reading his filter. So that leave's _Tormented_ and Tronak. Just perfect, the newbies. Tormented I can't tell if it is mafia or just blatant newb. Take these posts for example On February 26 2015 07:53 _Tormented_ wrote: ##unvote ##Vote Artanis I agree about snarf's post and I agree with his lynch, even if nothing will come of it. versus On February 26 2015 07:56 _Tormented_ wrote: I voted him originally for his post against Node that seemed a pretty big stretch to me, along with not helping find any scum besides that post. I actually liked his recent post with his actual reads, but that is just me. I could just as easily be wrong. like three minutes later. He says bad stuff but he is completely open about it. I hate to admit it but Tronak is the same. I thought I had nailed him with his reasoning for voting for Wave I never said I liked the lynch on Snarf. I have always said I find him interesting as a player to learn from (totally egoist point of view nad not "find a mafia" related i got to admit), thats why i'd save him over Wave which is just about the worst reason you could have to vote for someone. You aren't voting for them because you think they are mafia but because you like how the other guy plays. If this was the only time he specifically mentioned Snarfs play it would be blatant attempt to find a reason to vote and I would lynch him so fast but he has actually mentioned this a couple times before.
Which means my two hours spent trying to work out what happened comes down to Damred again. It's past midnight here and I'm just done with this. I'll try and be here before day-break. I'll take a look at Snarfs and his side of the voting then. Please post your thoughts, hopefully some of this was useful. I especially want to hear from Node, who has also disappeared from the thread. | ||
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On February 26 2015 09:27 KelsierSC wrote: I wanted to switch to Tronak. No chance of that happening. Not enough time to work out whether it was a last minute bus or hammering a town lynch. Obviously turned out to be number 2 but see my text wall for more information. why didn't you switch btw. anyway i'm going to sleep | ||
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KSc, I didn't think Snarfs was mafia. All I said was his play was different. Not different to his town play. He has certainly been less clear than usual but that doesn't make him mafia. And no there was no time for another wagon on Tronak. There were two minutes remaining with only about four or five of us posting. Jumping off at that point would have ended up lynching Snarfs. As for why scum would be on Wave and not Snarfs if Snarfs is town, well Wave was town. Pushing one town lynch over another seems a 50/50 split. There are three scum there could quite likely be two on the Snarfs voting. I particularly think Node is suspicious given he votes Snarfs for no reason and then disappears. We'll have to see what he says when he returns. | ||
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On February 26 2015 22:39 Tronak wrote: Probolous you admitted your self, that you were the one pushing Wave's wagon first. And your vote was indeed what made me think "ok i can save Snarfs + someone else is pushing Eden's case (which at this point I was already considering seriously)". I will explain my line of arguments that drived me to vote for Wave further (having lunch while I read you, and i'll need some quotes). Meanwhile and to complete your analysis, that I just read and find very interesting and better that your "oh look shoot this scum newbie"), why don't you refresh me why did you vote Wave? aren't you as suspicious as me? I mean you look more suspicious to me at this point (before diving in you filter). I wanted to shoot you because when pushed your reason for voting for Wave was to keep Snarfs around to "teach' you. Call it lynch excitement, it sounded like scum trying to come up with a reason to vote (one way or the other). My reasons for voting Wave were quite simple. 1) Eden was shouting about his case on Wave so I took a look, it seemed OK so I looked closer at Wave's posting. 2) I really don't like blatant sheeping as I feel it abdicates responsibility for scum-hunting. I called Wave out on it. 3) Eden explained that sheeping your town reads is now pretty normal but that you would be pressed on them, so I checked Wave's filter for who he thought was town and why. He basically called yamato town in like his third post and that was it. Ok fine, he has a gut feel for yamato but Node? His reasoning made no sense. So I pushed him on it. 4) Obviously he AFK'd for reasons but it looked suspicious as hell to me. Especially when he had been constantly saying he would return to the thread to provide something but never did. Like I said, clearly I was wrong but I thought I was on to something. The lynches at the time were Snarfs and Artanis who I didn't want to lynch and Wave looked really dodge for disappearing. | ||
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On February 27 2015 06:46 KelsierSC wrote: but if you're town read of him is based on him being insightful and careful with his posting, how does him being active and willing to be wrong make him town? OK you're misunderstanding what I was originally saying. I was not calling him town in that first post, I just said his posting style when we played years ago was one of careful consideration. It's different this game but that doesn't make him mafia, or town. I thought that was clear when I posted this later | ||
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On February 27 2015 06:48 Tronak wrote: Who would ask this? you switch or not switch, but don't waste your supposed few time in asking if its too late. It was indeed too late to wagon on me, but it wasn't too late maybe for him to abandon his vote on Wave and shoot me. Trust me I would have.I was thinking and typing at the same time. I thought there might be an option to switch but realised just trying to convince people you were scrum would take too long. | ||
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On February 27 2015 00:28 Damdred wrote: [/green][/green][/green]+ Show Spoiler + On February 26 2015 08:58 Blazinghand wrote: Vote Count WaveofShadow (7): Eden1892, Probulous, Damdred, _Tormented_, Tronak, snarfs, The Shining Snarfs (5): Node, Yamato77, WaveofShadow, Artanis[Xp], KelsierSC KelsierSC (1): sicklucker Not Voting (0): Currently, WaveofShadow is set to be lynched. Day 1 ends in at 00:00 GMT (+00:00). Remember, voting is Mandatory. You may NOT abstain. Had a long day at work figured before I went into anything else I would look at the final vote count and post some thoughts. The first vote is the official vote count where we ended with the 100% information that we have from the flip. From this vote it is highly probable that both Eden and Yamato are both town (a part from my earlier reads) which makes the vote look like this + Show Spoiler + On February 26 2015 08:58 Blazinghand wrote: Vote Count WaveofShadow (7): Eden1892, Probulous, Damdred, _Tormented_, Tronak, snarfs, The Shining Snarfs (5): Node, Yamato77, WaveofShadow, Artanis[Xp], KelsierSC KelsierSC (1): sicklucker Not Voting (0): Currently, WaveofShadow is set to be lynched. Day 1 ends in at 00:00 GMT (+00:00). Remember, voting is Mandatory. You may NOT abstain. Personal Reads Incoming: I think that the vote was between two towns at this junction, Snarf left a reads post that convinced me even if it did not convince anyone else. There was not that much movement in the wagons at the time besides consolidation. Snarf voted to save himself which isn't alignment indicative granted. I still think the legacy post sways me a bit its obvious he was the lynch up to that point and wave had 0 momentum up to the final hour so no reason for mafia to give us any sort of information going into it. I also think that there is a good possibility that Kel is town in this scenario. He looked really good heading into the eod and put in a ton of work questioning people and pressuring people at points. + Show Spoiler + On February 26 2015 08:58 Blazinghand wrote: Vote Count WaveofShadow (7): Eden1892, Probulous, Damdred, _Tormented_, Tronak, snarfs, The Shining Snarfs (5): Node, Yamato77, WaveofShadow, Artanis[Xp], KelsierSC KelsierSC (1): sicklucker Not Voting (0): Currently, WaveofShadow is set to be lynched. Day 1 ends in at 00:00 GMT (+00:00). Remember, voting is Mandatory. You may NOT abstain. Shining had a huge let down day one, but his somewhat catchup posts were ok. I'm leaning town on him but I don't think i'm ready to give him a full force town read but I think its more likely between two towns that a town would hammer in that situation. SL has a high chance of being mafia with how his voting went I believe. He was here at EoD was useless and used his vote by throwing it away instead of helping the lynch. His vote by itself stands out pretty highly to me + Show Spoiler + On February 26 2015 08:58 Blazinghand wrote: Vote Count WaveofShadow (7): Eden1892, Probulous, Damdred, _Tormented_, Tronak, snarfs, The Shining Snarfs (5): Node, Yamato77, WaveofShadow, Artanis[Xp], KelsierSC KelsierSC (1): sicklucker Not Voting (0): Currently, WaveofShadow is set to be lynched. Day 1 ends in at 00:00 GMT (+00:00). Remember, voting is Mandatory. You may NOT abstain. This leaves me with Tormented, Tronak, Node, Artanis and Probulous Tormented I think is townish at this point, his post on snarfs goes against the grain at that point and his followup explanation was pretty good. His posts at EoD weren't bad either to me. Probulous has been a bit useless besides when hes talking about me granted, wave pointed this out but I think that what analysis he did do to me and his post during the night on the votes was pretty town so he is in a town pile. + Show Spoiler + On February 26 2015 08:58 Blazinghand wrote: Vote Count WaveofShadow (7): Eden1892, Probulous, Damdred, _Tormented_, Tronak, snarfs, The Shining Snarfs (5): Node, Yamato77, WaveofShadow, Artanis[Xp], KelsierSC KelsierSC (1): sicklucker Not Voting (0): Currently, WaveofShadow is set to be lynched. Day 1 ends in at 00:00 GMT (+00:00). Remember, voting is Mandatory. You may NOT abstain. This leaves me with a pool of Artanis, Tronak and Node. Tronak had some decent posts during the night, hes more null for me currently. But I think some posts look towny Artanis has a really good shot at being scum, all day he thought that Yamato looked really bad and scummy but he decided to vote with his scum read and then after he voted he decided that Yamatos filter looked decent. He was somewhat useless today just focusing on tormented and yamato for the general portion of the day before deciding to vote with said scum read and suddenly reversing the read even when Yamato had been playing the same way the whole game. Node is probably the last scum, h was extremely useless all day. He was extremely defensive whenever he was confronted with not doing things in the thread. AFK'd his vote without any sort of followup or any new information taken into account whenever he was here, and just has decided to do shit all and be useless. + Show Spoiler + On February 26 2015 08:58 Blazinghand wrote: Vote Count WaveofShadow (7): Eden1892, Probulous, [gren]Damdred, _Tormented_, Tronak, snarfs, The Shining Snarfs (5): Node, Yamato77, WaveofShadow, Artanis[Xp], KelsierSC KelsierSC (1): sicklucker Not Voting (0): Currently, WaveofShadow is set to be lynched. Day 1 ends in at 00:00 GMT (+00:00). Remember, voting is Mandatory. You may NOT abstain. This is the final visual representation of where my thoughts are currently. Any questions or want anything fleshed out more just ask and i'll talk more about it. Damn, this is how you do vote analysis. I take back my snarky bit from last night. I was convinced there was scum on that wagon and you were the strongest candidate in my mind. So if this is true, then I pushed a wagon which had no scum on it? I'd be down with a Node lynch if he doesn't contribute today. Will take a closer look at Artanis, I like his open style but pushing the newbie so hard all day on day 1 is an easy target for mafia. | ||
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On February 27 2015 06:58 Tronak wrote: Ok but again, it could take too long but you were already convinced at this point, that I was mafia and Wave was innocent and about to lynched. If you are town and being at this point, why the hell you wouldnt ##unvote Wave ##vote tronak? Where did I say that? Could have been a day 1 bus. | ||
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On February 27 2015 07:04 Damdred wrote: 2 minutes is plenty of time for shenanigans. Idk if we could have put totally realistic, especially in a bh game! The problem might not have been the logistics but convincing everyone to make a last minute switch based on one post which upon reflection could be bad town rather than scum. Despite Wave flipping town I would do the same thing if I was in the same position with the same information, switching would have caused all sorts of chaos and probably led to a Snarfs lynch which I was less sure about. | ||
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On February 27 2015 07:11 Tronak wrote: Wtf you asked if there was time to switch? why would you ask if you were not thinking Wave was innocent? Because to me you had just basically scum-claimed. Much stronger case than my suspicions on Wave. | ||
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On February 27 2015 07:14 Tronak wrote: Now you give a proper "towny" reason for first time. Not sure if this comes late to me though. On February 26 2015 22:17 Probulous wrote: I wanted to switch to Tronak. No chance of that happening. Not enough time to work out whether it was a last minute bus or hammering a town lynch. Obviously turned out to be number 2 but see my text wall for more information. | ||
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On February 27 2015 07:16 Tronak wrote: Not really  , I may deduce is puting a sheep after sheep on new good case?ROFL, no bussing is when scum vote their own team. That way when one flips they look town. The problem is that a bus doesn't make sense if Snarfs is town. Of course I didn't realise how all this logic works out at the time of posting. I was sure I had caught a scum and wondered whether I could get people to change. That was why I was so aggressive after the lynch, it felt like a missed opportunity for me. Upon re-read things look different. | ||
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Add into this that I really disliked Node's response to Snarf's response and subsequent disappearance (no explanation as far as I can tell). Snarfs has also been one of the active players here. He was inconsistent and made some bad mistakes but he was present. In the end I thought Wave was worse. | ||
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On February 27 2015 07:48 The Shining wrote: I feel like this is for my benefit, lol. With Node and SL, I'm curious. Both hint at inactivity/lurking. What makes them any worse than, say, me? See I have a bias issue in that I've been inactive for valid RL stuff. I really don't like anything about Node's filter at all but I feel hypocritical scumming Node or SL immediately. Although it really is bad that Node AFKd a vote and attacked a post from Tronak that I liked as pushing discission, even if it was a summary bit. Artanis I think I could lynch tomorrow. Having enough energy to post that you're lazy during a night phase is just a cop out. This is a time to reassess and see where that mislynch went wrong. And if you're lazy, you're not going to post at all. Just seems off. Once you started being active, you've remained that way. Hypocrisy counts for shit, especially about activity. There is a difference between active lurking and just being completely busy. That's why I am giving Node the benefit of the doubt until he returns. | ||
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