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On February 20 2015 17:32 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2015 17:31 ritoky wrote:On February 20 2015 17:27 Blazinghand wrote:
hey ritoky, let's talk strategy realy quick. I can push on LS pretty hard if you want, but it might actually hurt the wagon since many players (who are not at your/my level) don't trust me for some reason. At the very least I'm gonna post a quick summary and a couple links, and do the usual respond-to-questions thing, but do you want a hard push on LS from me, or just the regular casewriting? I'm thinking a hard push would be counterproductive to getting LS lynched Who would be the viable alternative to a LS lynch today? I still don't have a firm opinion on VA like you do, so that's troublesome. I'm voting LS either way, and writing a decent case on him, barring something very strange happening. The question is do you think it would help us lynch him if I want HAM on him or would it be better if I let you drive the wagon
just do a normal case on him, if people can't see it clearly from that point then they're not going to understand it when being beaten over the head with it.
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
On February 20 2015 17:32 ritoky wrote:
I just can't see how LS is not scum from his play. he slipped pretty clearly, he manufactured a read that is a direct contradiction, his defense was bad.....there's just so much there...I can't really see myself voting on anyone else at this point, but if you have a better case or equal one then I am up for hearing it.
I don't. I'm discusssing what's our best strategy for getting LS Lycnhed today. Do you get what i'm saying? I'm voting LS 100% but how much I write about him... like it might not be optimal for me to actually write a lot of case on him, you get what I'm saying? People are stupid and dont' trust me
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
On February 20 2015 17:34 ritoky wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2015 17:32 Blazinghand wrote:On February 20 2015 17:31 ritoky wrote:On February 20 2015 17:27 Blazinghand wrote:
hey ritoky, let's talk strategy realy quick. I can push on LS pretty hard if you want, but it might actually hurt the wagon since many players (who are not at your/my level) don't trust me for some reason. At the very least I'm gonna post a quick summary and a couple links, and do the usual respond-to-questions thing, but do you want a hard push on LS from me, or just the regular casewriting? I'm thinking a hard push would be counterproductive to getting LS lynched Who would be the viable alternative to a LS lynch today? I still don't have a firm opinion on VA like you do, so that's troublesome. I'm voting LS either way, and writing a decent case on him, barring something very strange happening. The question is do you think it would help us lynch him if I want HAM on him or would it be better if I let you drive the wagon just do a normal case on him, if people can't see it clearly from that point then they're not going to understand it when being beaten over the head with it.
k
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On February 20 2015 17:25 ritoky wrote:
Also if you look at your town reads there HtS, I think one of them had damdred as mafia in total.
Guess who did have damdred as mafia?
This guy.
Re-orient your reads quickly.
Just because a person is town does not mean they are correct. So what you have just said means nothing. Try harder.
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On February 20 2015 17:20 ritoky wrote:
how about you address the fact that you used damdred's flip to try to call me mafia, yet I called breshke mafia since basically the start of the game and demonstrated the vote logic to show a damdred + LS team was very feasible last phase even before any of this stuff.
LS is scum, you need to get that through your head. BH is town you need to get that through your head. if you can't then you're probably scum too.
Damdred flipped scum and others will be using his filter to look for associative reads. Are you not reading the thread?
Yes, Ritoky, you can call any of your teammates mafia for later credit when they flip. I wasn't born yesterday. A few others had Breshke on the lynchables list for his lurking. Your point?
VCA is a great tool to use when you're town but scum are capable of misrepresenting that too.
You've been misrepresenting things all game.
LS sheeps votes a lot as town, so with a Damdred flip of course it's going to make any town you managed to pair off with him two days in a row look bad.
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On February 20 2015 17:48 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2015 17:20 ritoky wrote:
how about you address the fact that you used damdred's flip to try to call me mafia, yet I called breshke mafia since basically the start of the game and demonstrated the vote logic to show a damdred + LS team was very feasible last phase even before any of this stuff.
LS is scum, you need to get that through your head. BH is town you need to get that through your head. if you can't then you're probably scum too. Damdred flipped scum and others will be using his filter to look for associative reads. Are you not reading the thread? Yes, Ritoky, you can call any of your teammates mafia for later credit when they flip. I wasn't born yesterday. A few others had Breshke on the lynchables list for his lurking. Your point? VCA is a great tool to use when you're town but scum are capable of misrepresenting that too. You've been misrepresenting things all game. LS sheeps votes a lot as town, so with a Damdred flip of course it's going to make any town you managed to pair off with him two days in a row look bad.
you didn't address what i asked you at all, why are you avoiding it?
you should know that i am the king of vote logic, i champion vote logic moreso than any active player on these forums; to tell if i am town look if i am drawing conclusions from it.
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Speaking of vote logic! Fire up that vote logic engine!
A couple hours before rayn's cop claim:
On February 19 2015 06:33 marvellosity wrote:
Vote Count
BlazingHand (1) - VayneAuthority
VayneAuthority (2) - BlazingHand, rsoultin
raynpelikoneet (5) - Damdred, LightningStrike, Palmar, Half the Sky, Alakaslam
Half the Sky (1) - raynpelikoneet
raynpelikoneet is set to be lynched. 7h26m until deadline
End of day vote count? I think this is accurate:
On February 19 2015 12:41 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
That story almost made me fuck up the votecount
raynpelikoneet (8) - Half the Sky, ritoky, rsoultin, LightningStrike, Palmar, Alakaslam, Superbia, Damdred, Fecalfeast
Palmar (1) - Raynpelikoneet
LightningStrike (1) - IAmRobik
Blazinghand (1) - VayneAuthority
VayneAuthority (1) - Blazinghand
Not Voting (1): prplhz
Voting ends in
On February 17 2015 15:50 ritoky wrote:
Day 1 Votecount
liancourt (8) - Blazinghand, IAmRobik, LightningStrike, FecalFeast, ritoky, Breshke, Superbia, rsoultin
Blazinghand (5) - Half the Sky, VayneAuthority, liancourt, KelsierSC, prplhz
Town Puppy (1) - Alakaslam
raynpelikoneet (1) - Palmar
Half the Sky (1) - raynpelikoneet
rsoultin (1) - Town Puppy
I am green because I am town, superbia is green because his claim makes 0 sense from a mafia perspective given the context, and BH is green cuz of his claim and play combined.
The following may be hard to follow and choppy because it is me just dumping a train of thought.
Like I said earlier in my previous vote analysis, I think there is likely 2 mafia if not more who voted on lian day 1. damdred/breshke was 1, which would leave likely 1 more between LS/FF/rsoul. If you look at the prior to rayn claim sample for votes, LS has followed damdred onto rayn, rsoul is on VA, and FF isn't voted (he is I believe the last person to vote on rayn).
The only 2 question marks who weren't on rayn last phase were VA (voted on BH both phases) and prphlz (who is in modkill range after not voting, so isn't worth discussing unless he comes back). If we assume there's 1 mafia amongst these two lurky players (which isn't an unreasonable assumption); then that leaves the last mafia in slam, palmar, and hts; and an sk somewhere.
So grouping on day 1: 1 between LS, FF, rsoul
1 between prphlz, VA
1 between slam, palmar, hts
at mid day:
LS -> rayn, FF - > n/a, rsoul -> VA
prp -> n/a, VA -> BH
slam -> n/a, palm -> rayn, hts -> rayn
Examining the 3rd pairing, palmar was really championing the rayn lynch which was followed up on by both damdred and HtS, palmar least likely mafia in this grouping from votes because his wagon on rayn. Mafia more likely between slam and hts. slam votes inconsequential (town) then rayn, hts votes secondary wagon. Statistically hts more likely mafia based on "mafia don't want to be caught stray voting" statistics. Also, if slam mafia and if mafia killed eden at night makes no sense for his vote to be parked there.
So likelihood of mafia by each grouping:
group a: 1) LS, 2) rsoul, 3) FF
group b: 1) VA 2) prp (prp only second because en route to modkill)
group c: 1) HtS 2) Slam 3) Palmar
i think i am wrong somewhere in there, and i am not really sure where from pure voting logic. i have to sleep, so i will look back at this tomorrow to see if it still makes sense. meanwhile, LS is mafia.
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NOTICE: Everyone should have read or read pages 158-161.
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On February 20 2015 14:44 VayneAuthority wrote:gotta commend palmar on his amazing meta read on Damdred, I guess thats why he doesnt use meta. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/bOIPCbJ.jpg)
Good contribution, you're doing a lot to win this game with us.
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I have no clue honestly btw. I'm going to read Damdred's filter and maybe breshke's too.
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maybe ritoky is town after all?
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On February 20 2015 17:34 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2015 17:32 ritoky wrote:
I just can't see how LS is not scum from his play. he slipped pretty clearly, he manufactured a read that is a direct contradiction, his defense was bad.....there's just so much there...I can't really see myself voting on anyone else at this point, but if you have a better case or equal one then I am up for hearing it. I don't. I'm discusssing what's our best strategy for getting LS Lycnhed today. Do you get what i'm saying? I'm voting LS 100% but how much I write about him... like it might not be optimal for me to actually write a lot of case on him, you get what I'm saying? People are stupid and dont' trust me
Blazinghand, is your main reason for scumreading LS that one post about HtS? Because, frankly, I think that's beneath you, and I'm not at all comfortable with Damdred's willingness to call it damning, either.
Ritoky's vote analysis has more backing in logic than that, although I'm not sure how statistically sound it is to assume mafia follow each other around like ducklings.
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On February 20 2015 15:53 Fecalfeast wrote:
prplhz, rso, palmar
I actually had robik as SK
Mafia trying for the wifomiest wifom play leaving BH alive? I still can't wrap my head around why sent would bother saying anything.
FF, it's gonna bug me if you never come up with an alternative theory for SK when I'm still thinking you could be a good candidate.
Gonna shower, then reread the Breshke/Damdred filters.
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So any updates yet rsoultin?
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Guys I going to pick up my Dad from the airport so I will be back after a couple of hours but when I come back I will try to give my refined list as I still need to do that >.>
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Breshke defends/townreads:
ritoky
hts
ls
[red]eden[/red
palmar
rso
superbia
after I call him out on no scumreads:
scumreads
rso
super
votes:
ksc off Eden's case <- no prior mention of him
BH <- after CC
lian <- sheeping BH
also a very interesting post criticizing eden for not believing there could be two JKs before the mod reveal
finally screams one minute before vote ends that he'll move to me -_-
looking at Breshke's interactions, which for the purpose of this analysis I'm defining as people he actually reaches out to engage with directly on his own initiative (rather than fielding questions or simply talking about), the following he townread but never interacted with:
Palmar
LS
No reads/interaction with the following:
VA
Slam (there was a weird faith healing comment, but I didn't really follow that)
prplhz
ksc
lian
rayn
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On February 21 2015 01:51 rsoultin wrote:
Breshke defends/townreads:
ritoky
hts
ls
eden
palmar
rso
superbia
after I call him out on no scumreads:
scumreads
rso
super
votes:
ksc off Eden's case <- no prior mention of him
BH <- after CC
lian <- sheeping BH
also a very interesting post criticizing eden for not believing there could be two JKs before the mod reveal
finally screams one minute before vote ends that he'll move to me -_-
looking at Breshke's interactions, which for the purpose of this analysis I'm defining as people he actually reaches out to engage with directly on his own initiative (rather than fielding questions or simply talking about), the following he townread but never interacted with:
Palmar
LS
No reads/interaction with the following:
VA
Slam (there was a weird faith healing comment, but I didn't really follow that)
prplhz
ksc
lian
rayn
EBWOP:
Sorry, fixed formatting problems.
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Damdred sheeps HtS on FF
Builds case on rayn
Honestly, his filter isn't much for info. Had two static reads amongst the still-living players:
Rso-scum
HtS-town
Very little interaction in general. One notable thing was how frequently he switched his read on LS...did it 3 times. Not sure what I'm supposed to take from that, though.
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Lightningstrike townread Breshke based on meta:
+ Show Spoiler +On February 16 2015 05:06 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2015 05:03 prplhz wrote:On February 16 2015 04:50 KelsierSC wrote:
prpl can you give where you are at in the game? I don't even know what this means. ##Vote BreshkeI can get with this. Reading his filter I don't think anything points at him being town or mafia. I didn't even remember he was in this game. Text book under the radar guy. This is a lot better than raynpelikoneet and VayneAuthority and what else is going around. I'm even willing to let KelsierSC go for now because he's actually around doing stuff. KSC was asking for your reads. Also I don't think he's Mafia this game I mean I played with him like 5 times before this game 2 times when he was Mafia and 3 times as Town. I think he's playing his town meta but he just inactive.
Drops him to null later as a possible SK.
+ Show Spoiler +On February 17 2015 06:34 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2015 06:30 Half the Sky wrote:
Tried to meta Breshke from his NYE party game and Student IV. He seemed a bit too passive, and I was tempted to ignore him at first, since he had afked a bit this weekend, but once I metaed him I'm pretty sure he's mafia too.
LS, if you have any thoughts on my reads since you were in both those games, just shout.
In SMIV, he was pretty active and changed his votes a few times over the day. Also a bit more verbose than he is in this game or in NYE. In NYE, he had 1-2 scum reads very close to EoD, but didn't have any strong ones through most of the day from what I could tell. Here I am seeing some parallels to NYE, much of the same stuff with his reads. So he is likely scum.
I don't see the same types of (bold/confrontational) reads I saw in SMIV. So scum on him. Funny you mention that NYE because he was sheeping a ton in that game. He might be null for now but if there is a SK in this game he could be it idk what else to expect but also check Metal Mini and Student V to compared another Mafia Game and another Town game.
He actually interacts a lot with Damdred, though. And then there's this post; I don't see him calling attention to this if they're both scum:
+ Show Spoiler +On February 18 2015 23:45 LightningStrike wrote:
Also I can never go wrong when I sheep Damdred I mean the only time I didn't jump a wagon with him was in Slytherin onto Slam because I only got him as Null and I Gobble in that game was 100% Mafia and was right on Gobble <3 Damdred.
##Vote: raynpelikoneet
Meh...I'm willing to entertain that my read on LS could be wrong, but less because of LS himself and more because of how Damdred and Breshke interacted with him. Last time he sheeped as scum, he sheeped town Bats. The argument could be made that his scummates weren't playing to sheep, but it suggests to me that he at least realizes how bad it looks to be sheeping mafia.
LS, what exactly was it about Damdred's meta that had you hard townreading him? Can you quote specific posts?
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EPT
