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On February 17 2015 08:45 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2015 08:44 jarjarbinks wrote:On February 17 2015 08:30 rsoultin wrote:
JJB, what has you so sure that Hier is town? It isn't that I 100% believe he's town. It's that he has 6 votes on him. He IS suspicious, I give you that. I wanted to vote him if he actually meant that he's still somehow sticking to his bridges plan when no one else is doing it lol Maybe it was that you started the wagon on him but it just seems like EVERYONE is against him, and that makes me wonder. Parts of his posts make me think he is town, and is just angry that everyone is against him. Why do you think Zlefin is the better lynch? Sometimes scum does buss in these scenarios, but I'd be lying if I said I was fully comfortable with a landslide vote like this, especially on Day 1.
Zlefin was my top scumtarget before and I haven't exactly liked his responses lately too. Putting a point system together is something I thought of doing before (with votes instead of posts) but it seems like he is just adding and subtracting points and not informing us why he is doing it. Anyone can add and subtract points, and you don't even need to make reads to do it.
I voted for him and still have it there because:
1: Switching to Hier right now is pointless and doesn't change the game at all
2: I wanted to provide a possible counterwagon in case other people had doubts on Hier like me.
3. Other people thought zlefin's play has been suspicious
4. I think Zlefin is scum.
I hate outliers, so being alone on this is bothersome.
Rsoultin: I asked Hier a question on sticking to his bridge theory about a page ago, ill re-pull it up. What do you think he was saying there?
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On February 17 2015 07:25 Hier wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2015 06:46 Tere wrote:On February 17 2015 05:55 Hier wrote:On February 17 2015 05:50 Tere wrote:On February 17 2015 05:48 Hier wrote:On February 17 2015 05:42 Tere wrote:On February 17 2015 05:24 Hier wrote:
Now that I've started reading Tere's filter I've noticed that she does not have a case on me at all. She has taken rsoultin's route of "Your post is bad, Hier." No suggestion of intention, or a probable goal I might have as scum. This seems like an easy bandwagon to jump onto, scoring a free townie lynch. Ballsacks, I make my view of you pretty damn clear in the post explaining my vote, including specific posts I think are scummy, and have pointed out one of the items I think most problematic again very recently. It's hard not to see that as misrepresentation. I am trying to give you the opportunity to clear yourself but it's not going very well for me here. Are you going to answer my question? Also a bonus question, are you having fun here, it doesn't look like you are having fun? Final RFI - this might be how you are, it's possible. Can you please link your previous games at TL Mafia with alignment? I will go have a read through those filters but right now I'm not feeling a reason to move my vote. You voted for me in one post, and claimed that I could be a town player and that we need to look for counterwagons in your very next post. Sounds to me like even you thought your case against me was weak. That's called wanting to give someone the benefit of the doubt. If it makes you feel better, you are making me more confident on my scumread every time you post. Now are you going to answer my question? In turn, your innocence fades with each of yours. Why don't you convince me that you are town, and I will answer your question (which you'll have to repost). Well, jarjar, this is what I've got, it's not really a question, is it. It kinda bugs me that Hier's repeatedly refused to answer questions even when reposted, that's not town helpful at all IMO. But on the basis that it might be helpful for you also, I can have a stab. I'm reaching out and trying to engage with as many people as possible. On Day 1 locked townreads are very hard but it's important for me to reach out and try to understand people and see if we can work together. I wouldn't call it town block, but a lot of my initial work goes on understanding tone and getting the feel for how people play - even more important when I have no meta and you are all unknowns IMO. I've read through the thread to catch up and I've gone through all the filters and posted my thoughts on them (I am feeling better about you BTW) I've considered whether or not I am tunnelling (I don't think I am!). I've asked Hier to come back into the thread and talk to us rather than tunnelling on my scumread. I've asked Hier for alternate evidence as to playstyle so I can triangulate with known town in case he's just rubbing me up the wrong way and it's a playstyle clash. I've considered the cases for the alternate wagons and thought of alternatives. I just don't like any of them more than where I have my vote right now. Would anything else be helpful for you? Same question for Hier? This was weak, and contradictory. The very first line of your very first game-related post was you voting to have me lynched. You did not try and "reach out to me" and "engage" with me, as you have put it. You came in as scum, saw a town player having a lot of votes, and auto-voted. It's really that simple. I have said you were a scumread for me, and, as per your request to clarify, I have explained why; it has partially to do with your case against me. To you that's tunnelling. This is at least the second time you are hiding behind the word "playstyle". Anything that seems amiss about your play you attribute to your personal playstyle, thinking it successfully defends against accusations. But, as promised, I will answer your question you wanted answered at the time of the agreement: Show nested quote +On February 17 2015 05:56 Tere wrote:On February 17 2015 05:17 Tere wrote:Out of interest, are you still intending to follow your Bridges strategy? (bold mine) On February 16 2015 07:50 Hier wrote:
Trfel:
It only takes one other player to declare his or her support for the model to get people to support its use. I know how Bridges works and how to use it to get a town victory. I will always abide by its rules, but if you later decide it's not worth it by all means abandon it. ^ Yes, I have always intended to use the Bridges method, after having pointed out that insubordination is part of its intentionally limiting design. Naturally, being the only person to oblige by its rules is meaningless, because the Bridges is meant to be a play method, not an explicit set of rules each individual is meant to follow.
Does he mean that he is still using the method? I think his vote proves otherwise, unless he made his one-time switch.
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On February 17 2015 08:57 Tere wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2015 08:51 rsoultin wrote:
Looks like Hier did vote Tere o.0 I didn't notice when that happened though. You posted this Show nested quote +On February 17 2015 08:09 rsoultin wrote:
Yeah, I'm feeling the meh on Hier myself. I think he's most likely mafia based on today's play, but almost everything he's done I can see from frustrated, tunneled town.
I think the main reason I'm fine keeping the lynch where it is...is he claimed to be trying to help town (while martyring on the lynch situation), but I"m not seeing the reads or analysis that would do that. He also seems to be leaning more toward Tere as scum but isn't voting her...he should be trying to push her lynch and leading the way with it. He posted his vote 12 mins later.
Prob why he didn't want to bring attention to it. Is it alignment indicative?
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On February 17 2015 08:58 rsoultin wrote:
Ah, lol >< well, that makes sense.
Is anyone down for shenannies? I just want to see if it's possible.
Who would be your targets? If I remember right you are suspicious of Hier and Zlefin, somebody else I'm missing? I don't really think Tere is lynchable today.
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Sorry mods!
Hope you play again Hier lol
I'm going to take a break.
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Hey guys. Might be out till probably an hour or two before EOD with work. I think there is some things to look at here and will go through them when I get home. Send me some questions you want answered in the meantime. People I'm suspicious are from the votes would generally be Trfel, Elyas, and Silver. I am also suspicious of Tere for being voted on by Hier. Those are the first four filters I'm reading when I get home.
Feel free to ask me questions if you are suspicious of me.
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Hey guys I just got back and read everything. I'll go back and answer questions before I filterdive. I'll do the one-two bullet thing before EON just in case mafia doesn't like starwars lol
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On February 18 2015 08:33 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2015 08:31 jarjarbinks wrote:
Hey guys I just got back and read everything. I'll go back and answer questions before I filterdive. I'll do the one-two bullet thing before EON just in case mafia doesn't like starwars lol You haven't been very active in the night, have you. That makes me a little suspicious. I still don't see much reason to scumread you right now, but tomorrow I am expecting more from you.
It's OK i'm suspicious of you too lol
Only question I see on second glance is the two bullet thing so i'll chime in in a few minutes let me go read up a little on some filters before I narrow 4 to 2
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You Tere Elyas and Silver were my top four based on day 1 votes.
Looking through filters I'm shooting Elyas and Tere. I'll explain those first.
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Elyas:
#1: Bandwagoned hard lol Of my top four (Elyas, Trf, Silver, Tere) Elyas' play on the bandwagon seemed the most scummy, although a case could be made for Trf. Elyas wasn't around EOD really, and it seemed like Elyas was like "I think this is a mislynch, but o well I guess it is what it is" Mafia can do one of two things after a successful mislynch, distance or nothing (I guess it is possible to keep scumreading them until its over to avoid looking like this). I see Elyas EOD play as slight distancing, enough to be noticed but not draw too much suspicion.
#2: Not much going on: I think somebody mentioned this earlier. Rsoultin I think. I see a lot of talking about doing something substantial in Elyas' filter but I haven't seen anything substantial. Elyas is new, so that could be the reasoning, but it could also be alignment indicative.
#3: Reads are nothing new: Scummed Hiel first, then zfelin next, then Tier. Actually, Elyas might have been the first on Tere, but that was half sheeping Hiel's vote "if he flips town". I haven't seen Elyas have any reads that would require real scumhunting. Granted again, Elyas is new.
#4: Has Elyas done anything after Day 1? I would say not really lol Made some reads, not too much backing them up. I actually think Zfelin's done a better job backing his stuff up now than Elyas.
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On February 18 2015 09:19 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2015 09:12 Trfel wrote:
Sorry for the post spam. My thoughts are coming more randomly at the moment.
Part of me is wondering if rsoultin was killed to help hide a mafia!jarjarbinks. I'm not at all confident in reading a Day 2 jarjarbinks, in the past I've just used rsoultin for that read. Still, though, rsoultin seemed pretty convinced that jarjarbinks is town, so I guess I'll work with that for now. Jarjarbinks, it would be great if you would make yourself extremely clear town so I don't have to worry about this. Can you do that for me?
Lol you've been in my past games. I think I'm getting better but who knows. I'm workin up my Tere right now but im free to chat with after
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Sorry I just got back. Whatsup?
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I'm not gonna lie, I am less confident in this one.
Tere:
1: Hier voted for Tere: This is definitely WIFOM. This is also based on numbers I've seen and will be hard to explain, but I will try my best. WIFOM reads are generally perceived as 50-50. From what I have seen in previous (non-newbie games), WIFOM reads from town are actually decent reads on average. Better than 50-50. Especially the reads where the dead townie voted for someone on his/her own. This is great (and you could say hard for me to prove) but you do have to ask yourself if Hier was simply retaling (if forgot the acronym) Tere's aggressive lynch or if he was on to something. I honestly think Hier believed in his vote, which makes me think Tere is more suspicious.
2. Sometimes Tier has been unresponsive to rather simple or weak pokes at her. I've never played with her before and she could play this way as town, but I think this is suspicious. I think this argument has been made by others, so I won't dive too hard, but it is suspicious.
3. Tere was in the bandwagon group, at least to begin with, but then went hard on Hier as time went on. In my eyes, this shows she acted the most like town of the four (Tere, Trf, Silver, Elyas). I put her in this group because she initially bandwagonned.
Making a caveat to my own biases, I perceived her to act like my sister due to the first few posts she's made. I will try not to do that in the future.
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On February 18 2015 10:51 Trfel wrote:Okay, I've gone through rsoultin's filter. Unfortunately, a good amount of it was talking to Hier and me, and that doesn't really help me at this time, since I already know my alignment and Hier is dead. A lot of rsoultin's statements have already been influential in my reads, so there actually wasn't as much new useful information as I had hoped (not rsoultin's fault!). I really like bullet point lists, but the post looks terrible with those, so I'll just use lines to divide things. I think it's mostly readable. (for those of you who think I spend too much time on formatting, believe me, it's important. In my first game, people often avoided reading my posts due to poor formatting.)
Last game The Shining played, he was mafia. I was also in that game, and I was mafia. I opened with a controversial opening that made me the center of attention. This game, I opened with a controversial opening again, which made me the center of attention for the first page or so (not very long). The Shining was suspicious of me, as expected. However, he townread Hier for proposing the Bridges method because it put him in the spotlight. Hrm.
Show nested quote +On February 17 2015 04:25 rsoultin wrote:On February 17 2015 04:20 jarjarbinks wrote:
I haven't talked about Tere and Silver much, so i'll share my thoughts
Tere: You seem like a nice version of my sister lol It looks like you make tonal reads but have some backing to them which is nice. I think what you said about mime has some truth to it. I agree with some of Trf's suspicions of you because some of it reminds me of my sister so I believe you have the ability to fool me. But as of right now count me fooled, I'm giving you a townlean right now.
Silver: I don't know what to think about you so far. I think your excuses are definitely justified, but it does hurt my ability to read you. Some people don't like wall posts, but you will need to get all of your thoughts out when you are here. Voting Hier is justifiable right now, but I don't see that as scumhunting. You have me worried. He's calling me mean ;o; Okay, so, I know this means nothing to y'all probably, but my brother is reading very genuine to me this game. If you wonder why I'm joking around with him, a lot of it is to see how he responds (and a slightly smaller portion just cause I enjoy him  ). Granted, I haven't seen him play scum, but I'd bet he's town this game. Just my two cents. I guess that takes a lot of the steam out of the mafia!jarjarbinks idea. Then again... Show nested quote +On February 17 2015 10:54 rsoultin wrote:
It could be argued that JJB might know too much, and his game looks so much better than his last ones that lol I have had a seed of doubt or two, not gonna lie. However he was very active keeping the discussion open so I think he's probably still town.
Show nested quote +On February 18 2015 00:42 rsoultin wrote:On February 18 2015 00:37 Trfel wrote:On February 18 2015 00:35 rsoultin wrote:On February 18 2015 00:33 Trfel wrote:On February 18 2015 00:31 rsoultin wrote:On February 18 2015 00:27 Trfel wrote:On February 18 2015 00:24 rsoultin wrote:On February 18 2015 00:23 Trfel wrote:On February 18 2015 00:20 rsoultin wrote:
Firstly, if you're hinting at what I believe you're hinting at, Tere, use your best judgment and your coach. You don't need everyone else's reads to do it. Put on those big girl pants xP Wait, I think I'm missing something here. Can you let me join the in-crowd? Do you think that Tere is suggesting that everyone is scumreading zlefin? Or what? Not the time truffle. I'll let you in later, I promise ^^ I thought we were friends..... Time to take a break from zlefin's filter and attempt to figure this out. Lol we're absolutely friends. You're a smart guy. I'm sure you'll figure it out ^^ Oh. I see what you are saying now. I don't like where this is going at all. Rsoultin, you didn't happen to be in the Hammertime obs chat, did you? Ummm, I did but I stopped following it after about the first day. Do you mind reading the obs QT again? There's a certain part of it that I believe is somewhat applicable here. My point is, you're walking on really dangerous ground, and tread carefully. I'm worried that I'm not going to be here tomorrow, so I'm trying to say all that I can now..... Lol, I gotcha, and no worries. This was always approached with a grain of salt, and I actually think it counts against her more than for her. Now I'm really wishing that I had asked rsoultin to elaborate on this instead of intentionally avoiding discussion on the topic. I have absolutely no idea why she would say this. Does anyone know?
Show nested quote +On February 18 2015 08:36 rsoultin wrote:Alright, Shining, lol. I must admit that the only thing bugging me really was your behavior around EoD, so it gets a pass for now. If you keep doing that shit, though, I'll try my darndest to get you lynched I did half-catch you last time so I can put the paranoia away for a little while longer. Rsoultin is scumreading The Shining while I am not, but all the same, I will keep this in mind.
I had originally townread the Shining, and despite not explaining his read EoD or really at all until now, I still think he is town. Him switching to sheep does seem stupid, but would mafia do that just to save face? It doesn't seem right, the only reason that he would do that as mafia that I could think of is to avoid looking like he's distancing (and/or maybe making me look bad, but that seems very farfetched). I feel like his switch was genuinely because he didn't have a great scumread and didn't have time to find a better one so he followed his strongest town.
Your parellels to Shining's previous scum game are interesting, but I don't feel like its a strong case to scum him. Maybe something just to keep in mind for now.
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On February 17 2015 22:57 zlefin wrote:
oh, and I'm dinging tere another point for the suspicions from here and trfel's analysis.
Prob not your best quote to use but it proves my point. I like the way you are playing D2. Thanks for explaining your reads more as you make them lol This shows that you are thinking through and are scumhunting.
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On number 1: Sorry I have been banding lynch deaths and night deaths together in my vote analysis to see how dead people's reads turn out when the games over. I obviously weigh this more heavily than you lol
I see what you are saying on #2, but if it takes little time to resolves someone's suspicions and it helps get them scumhunting on somebody else, that would help town. But point taken, if there is too many pokes or weak reads against Tere, then it might be better to ignore and focus on scumhunting.
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I didn't respond because part of it sounded hypocritical about the bandwagon thing coming from you and I didn't like how you EOD'd.
GIve me a sec, I'll do it by point.
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"Tere is clearly experienced in the general workings of a mafia game, even if she is new to this site. Thus, I expect her to show a reasonable ability to make reads and judgments. In addition, Tere has shown to be experienced with mafia acronyms, so I expect to see a high standard of play from her."
The character thing I agree with. I expect her to have about as much experience as you do, although I don't know if she can boast that 25% success rate of lynching though lol I think I originally treated her like she was on Rso's level (no offense lol) and I think I should have treated her more like on your or Shining's level.
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"The first main thing that Tere posted was her reasons for voting for Hier. This is a very easy post to make, and it doesn't make sense to vote for Hier before fully analyzing all of the people in the thread."
This is very true, and I thought your case on this was stronger than others. If she is mafia, I could definitely see her doing this to get some thread presence. From a town perspective, Hier did look very suspicious to everyone in the game and she had the least time to scumread others. Given the amount of counterwagons (1 if you count zfelin, i'm not really sure if that counted as a legitamite counter), I could see why she focused on Hier over the rest.
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EPT
