EPTIt's okay, case building takes a ton of time XD
Newbie Mini Mafia LXI - Page 20
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Trfel
7015 Posts
It's okay, case building takes a ton of time XD | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Again, I'll take a look, and I'll read jarjarbinks' filter, but it's a hard lynch to be confident about just by its nature. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Or one of us (in practice, only you, because I know for certain I am town) could actually be scum and playing the game of their lives. But I'm just going to say right now that night kills are WIFOM and I'm not going to make any guesses whatsoever as to the night kill. I know your case is nowhere near complete yet. I'm just sharing some thoughts. And believe me, if you are night killed and flip town (or heck, no matter what, even if I get night killed), I'll take a very good look at your case and jarjarbinks' filter. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I think you are town, and I think you really believe what you are seeing, but I'm not seeing it yet. I'll keep looking. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I'm going to assume that the answer is yes. How much online mafia experience do you have? Have you played on sites other than TL? Jarjarbinks, please take note of two things. First, it's only natural to try to sell a case when you make it. If it's what you believe, you are going to argue for it as hard as you can, and portray it to be convincing as possible (of course it still must be 100% true, but you want to try and sell it at the same time). I don't know if I explained that very well, if you don't understand, I can try to explain it better. Second, it's extremely hard to remember how everyone played in every game, especially at the level necessary to make solid meta reads like that. This isn't an indication of The Shining being lazy, insulting, ignoring you, or anything like that, it's simply natural. It would be helpful if you provided some quotes from previous games where you said that your reads are bad, though. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I refuse to attribute anything other than null to jarjarbinks's opening. I've seen openings townread and scumread for all sorts of reasons, and honestly analyzing people's openings just feels like RNG. Maybe the analysis is good, but people aren't very smart, so even capable town players will make openings that seem bad upon further analysis. Second, jarjarbinks was specifically asked for comments on the thread by rsoultin. Let's be honest, you really can't expect anyone (much less a player in a newbie game... As for jarjarbinks saying that his reads are weak, again, my guess is that everyone here (possible exception Palmar, I don't really know how good he is, though I assume he is rather good) has relatively weak reads (compared to the rest of TL Mafia). I don't think that jarjarbinks initially liking Hier's Bridges plan is an indication of him being scum. Your point is that after this analysis, jarjarbinks continues to advocate using the Bridges plan. I don't see that at all, the only indication I see of that is asking Hier if there was a reason to use the Bridges method that was missed in his analysis. Multiple people suggested that there could be some reason for town to use the Bridges method that was not apparent from the method itself, making it a fair thing. In addition, Hier obviously put a lot of effort into his plan, so it seems generally poor to completely discount it without asking him if there are any more reasons in its favor. Third point, that jarjarbinks townread Hier. I disagree with the read, but that doesn't mean that jarjarbinks is scum (town can be wrong). In addition, jarjarbinks is making a read and explaining it, and while I don't agree with it, I can see how he would arrive at that conclusion. I don't see why this is a scum tell. Jarjarbinks reread the thread and changed his mind. While this doesn't look good, I feel that it is plausible early in the game with few pages to work with. In addition, if jarjarbinks is scum, that means that Tere is town, and Tere townread this post for tone and honesty. How can you say that jarjarbinks is constantly sheeping and reading the thread sentiment while also having original reads because everyone else says the opposite? I sometimes like posts that are scumreading me. For example, yours from earlier this game  That said, I found this post where jarjarbinks explains his read (before the post in response to rsoultin) where he explains it a little better. Still, his read seems passable, though the explanation changed a bit for seemingly little reason, which is a tad suspicious I suppose.I don't see the relation between jarjarbinks knowing that The Shining scumreads those who scumread him and anything in the paragraph before it. What scum game do you refer to? I'm pretty sure jarjarbinks has never rolled scum. And I don't see him mention this in his filter. Some of these sentences feel like they are responding to something that rsoultin said, not jarjarbinks? I personally felt that jarjarbinks' comment was interesting and insightful. And if you're going to pick on someone for white knighting this game, it should be me. I've defended basically everyone at some point. My inclination is that jarjarbinks saw me being suspicious of you for a poor reason and (correctly) pointed out why he thought it was poor. I'm sorry, I just really don't see what you are getting at here at all. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 22 2015 14:42 The Shining wrote: That's fair. I would like to know however, any ETA until the rest of the case? I'd like to know if I should try and stay up for it or if I should go to bed (and maybe wake up early to read it?).JJB. Really? Alright, I'm home. I won't be responding to JJB's defense or Trfel's analysis of the first part of my case until the rest of it is up. I purposely posted that first half to see what the reaction would be and it's exactly as I expected. Trfel is looking at it critically, and JJB...well, I'll add JJB's defense to the end of the case. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
If you want my response immediately, that's no problem either. But I am going to want to go to sleep in two hours at the absolute latest, and I'd really prefer to go to sleep sooner (one hour would be nice, though I might be able to stretch it). And if I go to sleep before you post, it's a moot point. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
The Shining, no guarantees, but I'll try to stay up. Day 3 song: + Show Spoiler + https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh3Kk5tZSmo Because town needs to be logical. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
But seriously, thanks a bunch for being willing to go through all this filter diving and case making. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
1. Jarjarbinks considering the possibility of being night killed due to a Star Wars hating mafia team is a joke, clearly. That said, mafia teams sometimes behave in extremely weird ways, so even a scumread player considering the possibility of being night killed isn't alignment indicative. 2. Bad reads doesn't mean always wrong. Otherwise, bad reads are just as good as good reads, because you make your reads and then do the opposite. Jarjarbinks is making reads and sharing thoughts, which is exactly what you criticized him for not doing in Part 1, saying he said that his reads were bad to compensate. 3. I agreed, for a jarjarbinks-Silverarte scumteam, there seems to be no possible kill but rsoultin. But if I were jarjarbinks, I would actually want to keep rsoultin around to defend me here. Especially after rsoultin townread jarjarbinks early. So I can't really implicate jarjarbinks through the night kill at all. 4. Again, it is completely possible for a player to say their reads are bad and still act strongly to push them (in this case, defending you). If you want an example, look at me. My reads are bad, but I'll still push them with force when I feel that it is called for. 5. Look at the context for jarjarbinks talking about combining lynch and night deaths. It seems that this is collected from other games, so it is not alignment indicative for this game. 6. Jarjarbinks posted scumreads on ElyAs and Tere. Apparently his read on Silverarte was provided at someone's request? Thus it is perfectly acceptable for it to be shorter. He seems to provide a general null, for which the length is appropriate (I'm the only player who goes in depth about null reads, and basically everyone hates it when I do). 7. Maybe that Silverarte post is a bit suspect for jarjarbinks, but posts like that are so easy for mafia. You show that you are reading and you help out without providing anything to put yourself at risk (I consider posts like that null). 8. The rest of the association case between Silverarte and jarjarbinks actually is rather interesting. That's the first part of your case so far that I really find myself agreeing with. Still, I can see a town jarjarbinks behaving in the same way, though it's a bit of a stretch. That's why I asked my earlier question to jarjarbinks, to see if he can shed any light on this. I'll take another look in the morning. For the record, I went through jarjarbinks's filter on my own, and while I (consciously) ignored the association case between jarjarbinks and Silverarte, the only thing I noticed is that he first called ElyAs's filter good and scumhunting and later called it boring (went along with thread sentiment). My final stance is that I still think that Tere/Palmar is a significantly better lynch. I'm not convinced by most of your case at this time, but you've made some interesting points. I'm not sure how much time I'll get to spend on it tomorrow, but if we don't win with the lynch, I will most definitely be revisiting this. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 23 2015 00:10 jarjarbinks wrote: I have a few minutes.Your defense to her posts didn't help too much, because in our last game where you were scum, you attempted to hardcore defend yourself after being copread by LS. Hence the initial vote. But what the heck is this? That defense was a complete and total joke. I was obviously mafia, I was obviously getting lynched, I was just trying to cause confusion. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
"If Tere is playing for town and really believing her case, Trfel is a much bigger threat as scum to keep alive another day. Silverarte is just easy cleanup. In my experience, tunneling that hard on a player such as Trfel(almost universally townread, large filter, lots of content) is suicide for scum. It is much more likely that misguided town believes their case wholeheartedly and tunnels." I don't agree with this in this. In principle, it makes sense to lynch the more dangerous scum first. However, when that starts meeting opposition, there is no reason to do so. If a townie is interested in solving the game, they will be fine with letting a perceived dangerous scum stay alive for an extra day, because they have arguments and they know that their arguments are right. Bad arguments cannot normally stand up to good arguments. If there are two scum players to lynch, it isn't very important at all to lynch the more "dangerous" scum first. For a player as constantly scumread as jarjarbinks, it makes sense that he is thinking about how his posts will look to others and whether or not he will be scumread for it. I want to lynch Tere/Palmar. Side note, in the event that Tere/Palmar is not mafia, I still don't know that I would be convinced to vote for jarjarbinks. I don't think that The Shining going through all of this effort to make a case despite having a very good lynch option already confirms him to be town. A mafia!The Shining would actually have good reasons for doing this as well. I need to do more investigation to see what this case says about The Shining's alignment, but I have a bunch of good reasons to townread The Shining from earlier, so I don't think that he is scum. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I'll be out until (hopefully) 30 minutes before EOD. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
It really is frustrating that zlefin never checked in since the case was posted. Even though I want to lynch Tere/Palmar, I wish he would have showed up and provided input. Palmar, the reason that Tere's push on me is bad isn't because she pushed for my lynch. The Shining scumread me, and I townread him for doing so. The reason that I scumread Tere for her push is because it was built on faulty reasoning and done in an extremely suspicious manner. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 23 2015 08:15 The Shining wrote: Oh, and this, I don't find it telling. Jarjarbinks is frustrated at being pushed in this manner, and so you can't expect him to defend himself optimally. See my defense on Day 2, it was a horrible defense because I couldn't bring myself to provide a proper defense.Ebwop: I really find it telling that Trfel can find better defenses for JJB than JJB can. Originally typed Trfel by mistake. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I do thank you for taking the time to go through making tonereads on people's behavior today as you did. If you are town, I will take a much closer look at your reads and why they are the way they are. | ||
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