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On February 16 2015 03:11 rsoultin wrote:I'll poke silverarte. Also, Trfel, same thought on JJB's post. JJB, can you show me how you arrived at the 47% number? I'm not as good at math but I can at least verify that it's valid when I see it in front of me.  Not as quick to read Hiel...hie...whatever his name is lol >< as town, though. Throwing things into a random number generator and drawing an (MSpaint?) graphic isn't exactly a ton of work, and he's done nothing to show that he cares about finding scum. Maybe when he comes back he'll change my mind.
Ya I messed up lolz
I got to 33% by multiplying 7/9 (chance of town being rng'd) by 5/7 (same thing on day 2) by 3/5 (same thing on day 3). That would be the chance that 3 towns rng died with nightkills. I didn't take blue roles into account, which could change things in towns favor I would assume.
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No lynch policy day 1. remember I almost got killed for it?
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On February 16 2015 07:50 Hier wrote:
Trfel:
It only takes one other player to declare his or her support for the model to get people to support its use. I know how Bridges works and how to use it to get a town victory. I will always abide by its rules, but if you later decide it's not worth it by all means abandon it.
Maybe if you shared how useful it is for a town victory we would be more accepting?
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Rsoultin: Do you actually believe Hier is scum or do you just disapprove of his idea? Town can be wrong right?
Maybe next game you can be mother hen xD lol
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On February 16 2015 09:07 The Shining wrote:
Um, is no one going to even remotely address my slight push on Zlefin? Odd.
Hmm, I would say that Zlefin will probably need to address more opinions than what he has. You were commenting on the inactives before your push on zlefin too. That being said, you have given your reads while he has not.
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On February 16 2015 09:30 Trfel wrote:
Ahhh, I need to get dinner, and I haven't finished reading the thread yet... Point made, I am the slowest reader ever.
More thoughts will come after dinner. For now, I will talk about the Bridges method.
I think that it is a bad idea to use the Bridges method in this game. The main reason for this is that so far, seven players have commented on it (all except for Silverarte and Mimeux/replacement), and six of them seem to have said that they don't think it is a good method (jarjarbinks is the only player who I might be misinterpreting here, though). The only one clearly in favor of it is its creator, Hier.
That said, I still think that it is a suboptimal way to play the game. My reasons for this have been stated many times, by myself and others. Therefore, I do not think that we will be using the method in this game, and I expect everyone to agree with this, since we need to work together.
Hier, it seems to me that your reason for creating the Bridges method is to make the game more objective, and more based on logic instead of guesswork. Mafia can, and often is, played with the focus on logic instead of randomly guessing. Cases involving logical arguments are extremely powerful.
Unless there is something we are missing from this method that magically makes our reads easier, I would have to say that it isn't a good method. I think it would work better if we were playing a mafia game where we could see each other's faces or something along those lines.
I agree we should all decide NOT to use the method. Most people are more confident in their vote analysis (including me) than in something they haven't used before. It doesn't make sense for 1 or 2 people to use the method while everyone else doesn't in my mind.
My read on Hier based on his play: I think he's town. Made up a strange method that he obviously believes in. Does it work? Probably not. He was willing to stand up for it though. I don't see why he would suggest this idea as a trap. Maybe it is hindsight, but I also don't see him doing it to get towncred. I think he should now focus on getting an idea of reads on people instead of fighting angry Rso.
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On February 16 2015 09:31 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2015 09:29 jarjarbinks wrote:
Rsoultin: Do you actually believe Hier is scum or do you just disapprove of his idea? Town can be wrong right?
Maybe next game you can be mother hen xD lol Town can never be wrong. Your statement is wrong, so you are scum.
lolz dang it you caught me! lol
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I am curious to see where Zfelin's and Elyas's reads are right now. Has the last few pages changed things?
Rsoultin: if say no one joined your bandwagon, do you have anyone else you are suspicious of?
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On February 16 2015 10:38 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2015 09:58 jarjarbinks wrote:
I am curious to see where Zfelin's and Elyas's reads are right now. Has the last few pages changed things?
Rsoultin: if say no one joined your bandwagon, do you have anyone else you are suspicious of? Yes lol. We still have about 24 hours, and some of the participating players I haven't looked into very closely yet. Also, angry Rso? ;o; I'm just animated. If you think Hier is town solely for his creation, who do you think is scum, JJB?
lol angry because you scared away the newbie!
Hmm you have a point there. I don't have a legitimate scumread that I would be confident in voting on right now. Let me go reread and see if I can pick up something xD Initially I would be worried about Zfelin and Shining (although I really liked Shining's last post about me and Trf). Silver still hasn't posted, so hopefully that happens soon. I didn't like Trf's pocket comment/joke (was it a joke?). While I thought that making a weird strategy was townie, it would be nice for Hiel to answer all of the questions people asked him.
I have like Elyas's posts so far to a degree. Much better than my first game on here that's for sure lol
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Cool Cool Trf. Just checking. Trf is Hier your biggest scumread as of now? I was looking through your filter and didn't find many scumreads/scumhunting besides that last one on Her.
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Zfelin: Do you mind answering my previous question? Not much scumreading/scumhunting there either. I guess there was the impression read on me, but I haven't seen much else. If you are suspicious of me, please feel free to ask me questions about my posts. I have been told I don't always make much sense lol
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I retract my position on the shining. Has scumhunted/given reads a lot. I like a lot of the posts too. Solid filter, despite not having many posts. Probably one of my strongest townreads right now.
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lol I love how that keeps happening.
Ya the whole scumreading your partner day 1 thing is kinda a toss up. Not smart, but I could see someone doing it just because they think as scum you wouldn't do it. WIFOM or whatever. But after rereading your filter in context, I really like your posts after the beginning. You are scumhunting and stuff.
I did defend Hier before, I don't think he's actually scumhunted (although he put the impression on me that he wasn't into diving through language to get reads).
Ely has asked some questions and appears to be scumhunting a little bit in my mind. More than others at least. Not on my top scumlist.
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On February 16 2015 07:58 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2015 07:50 Hier wrote:
Trfel:
It only takes one other player to declare his or her support for the model to get people to support its use. I know how Bridges works and how to use it to get a town victory. I will always abide by its rules, but if you later decide it's not worth it by all means abandon it.
Didn't you say that you'd just made this method up? And again, you're focusing on the model and not what I'm asking you for. @Trfel - I am not in favor of Bridges. Clearly. Even if Hier would be the next "auto-lynch" and I'd laugh my ass off if he flips scum, caught in his own mechanism
Hier, I know a lot of people have been asking you questions. Can you answer this one? Should be easy enough?
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On February 16 2015 13:10 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2015 12:54 Trfel wrote:
Rsoultin, are you suspicious of anyone other than Hier? I've already answered this, Trfel, lol. I'm getting more and more of a scum feel from Hier... though I do want to know what it is about Elyas' posting that JJB likes. He's making very little impact on me even after a second read-through. Kind of difficult to get any read on the two outliers. I have reasons to townread or at least put slight town leans on everyone but: Hier Elyas Silver Mime!replacement right now, so those would be the ones I'd lynch out of, all things remaining equal. Hier could still change my mind, but his reluctance to actually engage with not just me, but most of the rest of the thread, isn't sitting well.
Your right, not too much impact. But he did scumread me and followed up with questions. He had a reasoning to read me that way as well if I remember right. Plus he did ask 2 other questions on things that didn't make sense to him. Not a lot, but given how many posts he's made it is good enough to give him BOD right now.
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On February 16 2015 21:17 zlefin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2015 01:02 jarjarbinks wrote:On February 15 2015 22:58 zlefin wrote:
I can't explain my reads well, they're only quite mild reads at this point.
For Trfel, it's partly a tonal read, and partly that he's encouraging discussion and trying to get things going. So he's either town, or a well-played (and hence dangerous) scum.
For jarjar, it's just an impression, I can't really explain why. Could you use a quote or something to explain Trf's? no, I cannot. It wasn't a read from a single post, or two posts, unlike a fair portion of my mild reads; it was a gestalt impression of all his posts up until the time I'd made that post. Was this the question you wanted answered? Please be sure to confirm yes/no.
You answered it. Thanks lol I just wanted to make sure that you were not basing your reads specifically off a post, but more tonal.
You have new reads and it appears you are more confident in those so I won't dwell on those past ones too much.
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[QUOTE]On February 17 2015 00:58 rsoultin wrote:
[QUOTE]On February 17 2015 00:42 Trfel wrote:
Okay, time for a revised post on The Shining, hopefully I'm a little more awake now.
- The Shining seems very suspicious of me early on in the game, the reason being that I was scum in the last game that he played. This reason doesn't make any sense to me, but it doesn't seem significantly more likely to come from one alignment than the other. That said, I would like to have it explained.
+ Show Spoiler +On February 16 2015 07:32 The Shining wrote:
Trfel I'm a little biased against because I scummed with him last game and although I do agree with Ely saying him hiding it would have been way more suspicious, controversial start for Trfel seems to not be alignment indicative. Def wouldn't town him for it. And he tried to push discussion last game, too. Null, must see more. Note that I am not saying that it is suspicious that The Shining isn't townreading me, but that the reasoning is strange.
- The Shining's townread on rsoultin is very poor. He has played with rsoultin twice before, and ought to know that rsoultin asking questions is something that will happen regardless of rsoultin's alignment.
- The Shining's push on zlefin is rather poor, and I expected better.
+ Show Spoiler +On February 16 2015 07:32 The Shining wrote:
Zlefin has a couple of posts that lead nowhere and weak and unexplained reads. Mentions WIFOM, game voting rules, some parroting. Says Hier and RSo could both be town or both be scum but wont commit to his reads. Seems to be all for policy lynching inactives when there were only 2. How likely is it both scum members are inactive? Likely my leading candidate for a shot at D1 scum lynch. This is the original case. And the points in it are incorrect. Mentioning WIFOM and game voting rules is definitely not alignment indicative. Zlefin's reads on Hier and rsoultin had a reasonable amount of commitment for an unsure townie at an early stage in the game. I also don't see zlefin only going after inactives. Several of zlefin's posts suggest that he is actively scumhunting. On February 16 2015 09:07 The Shining wrote:
Um, is no one going to even remotely address my slight push on Zlefin? Odd. Why did The Shining clarify that the push is slight? If it's a pressure push, then saying that it is a slight push is horrid. And if it's a serious push, then it isn't slight. The comment just seems like The Shining wants to distance himself from his push a little, while still seeming possessive ("Hey, look at me, I'm doing something, but if it goes badly, don't blame me for it!"). On February 16 2015 12:20 The Shining wrote:
Also, so it's not a surprise.
Vote Zlefin
That's in voting thread. I'll be here at EOD, I'm off of work tomorrow and I don't like the lack of response. Could be inactivity, IRL stuff or just lurking but...my vote is where it is at. Zlefin didn't post in between these three quoted posts. I'm not sure what caused this push to change from a slight push to a vote.
- The Shining seems overly defensive and shows a very strange, ambiguous stance on me (Trfel).
+ Show Spoiler +On February 16 2015 12:11 The Shining wrote:
JJB if you're most worried at first glance about Zf and myself, ask yourself this:
Would I bus my partner D1 while no one but me is pressuring him? He's my top scumread with what's been put into the thread so far. And it might be WIFOM to think I'd light pressure him so that if he does ever flip scum, it'd buy me town cred. But if that was the case, I wouldn't have later commented on the fact that no one else commented on my Zfelin case. I forced it. Scum Shining would just leave it be and if he does flip, I'd be able to go "oh look I called that D1."
So I'm now waiting on Hiers defense, JJbs top scumread and Ely to swing by with a little more than that. I'm assuming you (ElyAs) dozing off now means you'll revisit the RSo Hier exchange with fresh eyes in the morning? BEFORE EoD?
For what its worth, Ely's last post was just a summary of the Hier Rso exchange, a parrot of my questioning Hiers lack of other leads, and an excuse for not giving us more.
Trfel, I really truly hate walls of text. I saw you do it as scum and so did I. I'd scum you for that entire post if I didn't actually read it lmao. And I made that point in the hopes that it would inspire you to do so, Trfel, so I'm glad you obliged. You can see how I was setting it up to see if you were really going to catch up or afk it. And eh, in a game where everyone is on opposite ends of the activity spectrum(very actively posting or lurking along, no mid ground), I feel its my best shot. Policy lynch talk and weak reads and no other talk of lynches shows a disinterest...I know I'd be a bit disinterested if I rolled scum in a newbie game.
Oh wait, I did. And I was. Last game. Lol. Ignoring the fact that the comment the first portion of this post is responding to was already retracted, this is still extremely defensive for an off-hand comment. While town obviously has incentive to be townread and survive, this seems overly so. The last paragraph makes no sense to me. I can't tell if I (Trfel) am being townread, scumread, or what, and I can't tell the reasoning for it. Why can't The Shining form a clear opinion of whether I am town or scum? (or null, for that matter?)
In addition to this, some of The Shining's other posts seem to show genuine scumhunting and thinking. So I am not entirely sure on The Shining. I would definitely like to hear people's thoughts, including The Shining's.[/QUOTE]
- You making a controversial opening post to "generate discussion" is something you did in your scum game xP I'm not seeing a problem with him being wary of that.
- My scum game was Horn. Unless he read it, he doesn't know my scum game here, and he quite easily catches me on our other forum lol xP So I can see him being confident of a read on me, however unjustified it may be. (Also, would tend to disagree that I play scum well, but that's not really a discussion for this thread.)
- I, too, disagree with his Zlefin read. Not enough to call him scum for it, but it's weak.
- That last point is probably the only one I would consider scum-like...getting defensive so quickly before anyone is really scumreading you. Probably best to recheck the context.[/QUOTE]
Shining does get defensive easily sometimes. He's only played a few games, but he typically does lash out at people that scum him. I saw the defensiveness as purely that.
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On February 17 2015 03:33 Tere wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2015 15:26 jarjarbinks wrote:On February 15 2015 15:20 rsoultin wrote:On February 15 2015 15:17 jarjarbinks wrote:On February 15 2015 15:14 rsoultin wrote:On February 15 2015 15:10 jarjarbinks wrote:
Rsoultin: Do you think you could actually RNG lynch someone? I don't think you could lol Speak of the devil ^^ Did you have a hot date tonight I don't know about, bro? Probably not -amused- I'm sure there's a how-to online somewhere, though >> I could just google it xP Nope, totally 5th wheeled a weird after church double date thing tho. I should prob get one of those date things. LOL just make sure you don't actually read all of the rules first Or my role PM? xP Dude, if only you'd posted that in-thread; it could totally make the wtf awards ^^ So, opinions on any of the players/goings-on thus far? Trf's opening: slightly less crazy than last game I played with him in. No random vote the guy who might be inactive play. Wants to promote discussion. I could go either way cuz he "tried" to do that as scum. Shining- not much reaction there. What i'd typically expect I guess? You- I expect you to do what you do every game. You did it...lolEveryone else: I'm guessing they are gone for valentine's. I'd get worried if people aren't chiming in when I wake up tomorrow. While you are here, would you explain why you posted the bolded bit to rsoulin? I am lacking in the meta here. Thanks 
Sure. Rsoultin's basic strategy every game is to pry at little things in the beginning which accomplishes two things.
1: She appears town to everyone (almost always is accepted as town regardless of alignment)
2: Starts discussion.
3: She is probably the best player in this game I've seen do this, so it appeals to her strengths.
The discussion part helps town, plus she might get someone to slip. I generally don't read her one way or another because of it.
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lol
I came up with a third on the fly
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EPT
