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On February 19 2015 17:05 Tere wrote:
Morning.
I drank too much last night, have an unhappy stomach and am fuzzy headed, but right now I kinda think I wanna do something which will probably bug the crap out of everybody.
I kinda think I wanna ##vote Trfel.
It's like this. There's a post in my filter where I respond to him and say he's like this weirdly negging boyfriend that's not giving me a lady boner. I just can't shake it, I really can't. It's really bothering me.
I need everyone else to go look at Trfel's filter and see what they think. I might just be falling down the rabbit hole, but if so
I need to step away from the edge.
I need to take the car in for servicing and will be at least 8 or 9 hours. I won't be able to post but I will try and grab a coffee and do a full read and reset. Hm. Voting and going away. Illogical suspicions without concrete explanations. Remind you of anything? 
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Tere, in all seriousness, I don't mind if you doubt my alignment, and I don't mind if you vote for me. But come EOD, if your vote is still on me, it had better be backed by convincing evidence. Otherwise I will consider you to have claimed scum.
I also note that you only voiced genuine suspicions of me right after I said that I would be busy the next day.... hrmph.
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On February 19 2015 22:46 zlefin wrote:
what a wide distribution of vote targets. It does not speak well of our chances I think. I don't think the current vote distribution is problematic at all. No one has started seriously pushing yet.
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On February 20 2015 03:02 ElyAs wrote:
Consider this.
There are 3 distinct scenarii that could be happening right now.
1) This is a game with scum being godfather / goon. Trfel is the godfather and is playing like town, but with ambiguous behaviour, as noted by The Shining in the beginning of the game. This is to draw a possible cop to check him and return with a green check.
Also, he was quite ready to jump the gun on Tere even tho she has been breadcrumbing all this time (more on this in the third scenario). He was on the same timing as Tere/me on Hier's lynch.
Day 2 he has been discussing with us, but something feels... off ? He is distancing himself from some easy lynches, maybe he didn't want to start an obvious wagon as scum. At the time he said he didn't want to lynch me, I was still very much a target.
2) Same case, godfather / goon. This time godfather is The Shining, who started to set up Trfel and paint him as godfather. His outburst could be a last ditch effort to appear as frustrated town. This scenario is possible but I'm not sold on it. I thought of this possibility yesterday, which is why I did put him as slight scum. (My first intention was actually to create a "Confusing" category just for you.)
3) Scum setup is roleblocker / goon. Tere is scum and breadcrumbing to confuse us because there is a 25% chance for a particular role to
- not be present
- be compatible with another role.
Which would then be opened for a scumclaim.
I dunno if Tere is willing to take this 25% chance as scum, but for the sake of discussion, let's say yes. There is also the probability that that particular blue role is not willing to claim. (unlikely)
If that's the case, I was sold on that breadcrumbing and this explains my strong read on Tere.
I'm not talking about any scumpartners right now because I believe scum between those 3 is gonna be the most dangerous of scums.
Right now, I'm thinking scenario 1 is the most probable. I'm sorry, I don't understand this at all.
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It makes absolutely no sense for a godfather scum to want to get cop checked. Being a godfather is more of a security thing, as in if you get cop checked you are okay, but I imagine the only affect on the scum is that they would try to keep the godfather alive for longer, if possible. Cop checks are too unpredictable for that.
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Wow. You guys are seriously going to throw the game.
This makes no sense at all and you know it. This is so bad, it makes me wonder if Tere is scum.
I don't even have words for this. People, use common sense, think of logic instead of this nonsense.
What the heck is tank scum, anyway?
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Tere. Associative reads are terrible. I could make a plausible case on associative reads for almost ANY scumteam, I bet. You yourself said why associative reads are terrible.
Why would I bus Silverarte? When I made my case on Silverarte, there was very little, if any, pressure on Silverarte at the time (just a one-liner from rsoultin and a little bit from ElyAs, which was posted after I was working on my case). Your reasoning to lynch me first is terrible, you just want to lynch me before I get a chance to show why I am right.
NOTE THAT ALL OF THIS ONLY STARTED AFTER I SAID I WAS GOING TO BE BUSY TODAY!!!!
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On February 20 2015 03:14 Trfel wrote:
Wow. You guys are seriously going to throw the game.
This makes no sense at all and you know it. This is so bad, it makes me wonder if Tere is scum.
I don't even have words for this. People, use common sense, think of logic instead of this nonsense.
What the heck is tank scum, anyway? Actually, no. This isn't throwing the game. I'm pretty sure that only a mafia!Tere would play like this. Look at the timing, look at the change in perspectives. It all makes sense.
You know what, Tere? I'll bring my laptop to class, or maybe skip class. You're trying to get rid of me, it won't work.
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Look at the timing. It's perfect for scum. Enough time to get a lynch going, not enough time for everyone to fully read, react, and analyze.
I've been a consistent town read all game, and for a reason. I've been leading the town (with the help of rsoultin), promoting discussion, asking questions, and thinking critically. My reads have often been copied by people, INCLUDING TERE. I've provided the largest number of cases out of anyone. I'm just not able to replicate this play as mafia. Anyone who has played with mafia!Trfel or wants to read my mafia game knows this.
When I said that my filter speaks for itself, I don't mean the length. I mean the consistent scumhunting, and trying to solve the game.
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I need to get lunch. I need to go to class. I don't have time for this nonsense.
Sorry, I'll try to calm down. But this push is terrible. I don't even need to see the reasons, if it is an associative case, it's terrible. "I reread the thread and redid all my reads" is a horrible excuse. If anything, that indicates that Tere wasn't reading carefully the first time, which is countered by her seeming confidence and effort in the Walls of Text.
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Tere isn't breadcrumbing. Saying you have your favorite role is not breadcrumbing.
VT is a role. Mafia goon is a role. Don't believe me? Look at the second post in the thread. Possible roles list includes VT and mafia. Still don't believe me? It's called a role PM. Still don't believe me? I've already expressed in previous games (probably Newbie Mafia LX obs chat, though I'm sure I can find it somewhere) that VT is my favorite role.
The potential breadcrumbing was talking about role at the same time as night kill choices. I don't care.
I can't be trying to get an easy lynch on Tere if I made it clear that I wanted to give her more time while everyone else was scumreading her (BASED ON MY CASE!!!).
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On February 20 2015 03:53 zlefin wrote:
trfel and jarjar, I'd still really like those lists from you two, especially trfel who I know has been around and seen it. Fine. I have other things to deal with. But it won't matter, we're not lynching anyone other than me, Tere, or Silverarte today (not because of gladiating or anything, just because that's how it will work).
Probably Town: The Shining
Slight town lean: ElyAs, jarjarbinks, zlefin
Scum lean: Tere*
Moderate scum lean: Silverarte
As for Tere, I need to take a detailed look at why exactly she claims to have arrived at this conclusion. Everything about what she is doing is screaming scum. But there is a chance that she is just town and making a horrible blunder.
Tere, not going to gladiate. That said, it seems rather likely that one of us will be lynched today. All logic says that will be you. With your experience and my inexperience, I'm not sure.
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On February 20 2015 03:10 Tere wrote:
Now, here are my two scumreads. There is quite a lot of mental distance between the two lists for me. I feel there is a very good bet this is the scumteam. I'd say I am 95% sure, for those of you who like percentages.
Silverarte - assistant scum, currently be bussed by obvscum Trfel in an attempt at towncred.
Trfel - tank scum. Probably the Godfather, if I were to guess.
I think this scum team really stacks up - there is clearly a more active scum around given the lack of obvscum in the quieter players, and it's not me and I don't believe it's the Shining, I have a strong townread on him now. If you do an associative read on these two it's also looking pretty likely.
I am going to do a full case on the pair of them and a look at associative reads. This is going to be long and detailed and it is a lot of work so you have to bear with me for a couple of hours. Tere, all the evidence you mentioned here is purely associative reads. I'm really looking forward to seeing other evidence.
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On February 20 2015 04:01 ElyAs wrote:Ok I'm gonna commit, I volontarily omitted the punchline to my scenarii post. I'm Wendy Testaburger, town Doctor ! Which is why I can say with such confidence that the role distribution is either : 1 Godfather, 1 Goon, 1 Doc, 1 Vigilante, 5 Vanilla Town or 1 Roleblocker, 1 Goon, 1 Doc, 6 Vanilla Town My point is, Tere has been breadcrumbing blue, but most importantly, she has been breadcrumbing Vigi adding to my strong townread. Proof : http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=44#874" The two people I would shoot right now are The Shining and Silverarte." Why is she saying this while nobody has asked her who'd she shoot ? If this is true and Tere is Vigi, then we have a godfather that played like there could be cops around, while there are none. If this is false... GG Tere, I got fooled and luck was on your side. Who did you save and why?
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On February 20 2015 04:03 ElyAs wrote:
I saved Trfel N1 because he was my top townread at the time. Thank you.
If you are in fact town (I am not going to lynch you, so I don't care to check the validity of your claims at the moment, I have a more pressing issue at hand), please stay sensible. I will explain myself clearly, and I know that my arguments are superior.
That said, I have never had to seriously defend myself before. I have no experience with it at all. Tere is rather experienced at both town and scum play, I'm sure she has aggressively pushed town players who had strong thread presences when she is scum. Her tone will sound better than mine, her persuasiveness will be more than mine. Just please, don't sheep her. Don't sheep me. Look at our arguments and decide for yourself who is correct.
Next, I will demonstrate why Tere is not the vigilante.
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Imagine we have a vigilante in this game. The first question is, did they shoot on Night 1?
The answer is no. If they did shoot on Night 1, then it would have had to be at rsoultin (the night kill) or me (the doctor save). Since we were both basically unanimously townread, both of these shots would have been terrible. We can safely assume that the vigilante did not do this.
Imagine the scenario in which we mislynch today. That leaves us with 4 town and 2 mafia. Mafia will kill a town, at night, so 3 town and 2 mafia, LYLO. If the vigilante shoots tonight (Night 2), and hits town, we lose. If the vigilante is that confident in the shot, they should just do it during the day phase like a normal lynch, or get town consensus at night. A decision like that is extremely important to the result of the game, for obvious reasons, the vigilante wouldn't make it alone. If we have a vigilante, their role has very little use for the rest of the game.
Therefore, if we did have a vigilante, they would have shot on Night 1. A miss on night 1 would put town at MYLO, which is far superior to LYLO. In addition, town would get rid of one of the scummiest targets. Vigilantes are NOT meant to be used to get rid of mafia, necessarily. That is what the lynch is for. Vigilantes are BEST used to get rid of question marks like lurkers. That is the true power of the vigilante. Imagine if all of the players at Day 1 were in the night phase. The vigilante would shoot Hier, a question mark. Hier would flip town, but that saves town a mislynch, and town no longer would spend energy and time discussing him. An ideal Night 1 vigilante shot would probably have been Silverarte, the lurker.
Is it okay if we had a vigilante and they didn't know this? Yes, it's okay. HOWEVER, remember that Tere is rather experienced at the game, and I am positive that she knows all of the above. And if vigilante really is her favorite role, I would hope that she knows how it works, and the best way to use it. Therefore, Tere is not the vigilante.
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ElyAs, do you understand what I am saying about godfather behavior? A godfather can affect the way the scumteam plays as a whole (keep the godfather from being lynched), but going out of the way to try and get cop checked is terrible.
And do you understand what I'm saying about why Tere isn't the vigilante?
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On February 20 2015 04:24 ElyAs wrote:
Your point on the day shot is moot, the role is a night vigi as per the OP. It's a completely hypothetical scenario. I'm well aware that the vigilante is a standard night shot vigilante. Just imagine that the town was the nine of us at night, and you can see why the vigilante would help.
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Actually.... last Newbie Mafia game I played, town was not allowed to no lynch.
Still, it's generally best for the vigilante to shoot on Night 1. In normal games, that is considered standard play. Maybe in such a small game (9 players) it is different, but I doubt that.
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On February 20 2015 04:28 Trfel wrote:
Actually.... last Newbie Mafia game I played, town was not allowed to no lynch.
Still, it's generally best for the vigilante to shoot on Night 1. In normal games, that is considered standard play. Maybe in such a small game (9 players) it is different, but I doubt that. Yeah, never mind about my reasoning then. It's flawed.
I still maintain that my behavior towards Tere is completely unaffected based on how she is "breadcrumbing" or not breadcrumbing her role, whatever that may be. If she isn't going to claim, I don't care if she's breadcrumbing. I'll push who I think is scummy, I'll lynch who I think is scummy. It makes no sense to avoid lynching someone for breadcrumbing only.
Note that Tere also said she wouldn't claim to avoid being lynched.
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EPT
