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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I AM TOWN I AM TOWN I AM TOWN I also have a broken compy. Womp womp. Ill also be more active when Im not sick but Ill read and stuff | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I need some more excuses.... its cold outside....reading is hard... Exo have any ideas/reads on anyone else? You just seem angry to me. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Exo and Celestial: I think you are wrong about LS. She did have some scum reads. The first post that everyone has been overanalyzing is a typical first post (at least in my newbie mind). Using "we" at the beginning implies to me that she wanted people to post. It's kind of like a "Let's go" kind of deal. Actually the first whole page of stuff seemed like people who were just excited the game started. I would expect more scumreads in the future, when there's much more to work with. Lol Rsoultin. Everyone did think you were a guy! I thought it was just the other game! Reading through all of this, I do see a lot of posts about how I need to defend my lack of posts. Right now I'm resisting the urge to come up some more excuses just so you guys can complain about them. I'll try to post more tonight. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 06 2015 06:10 LightningStrike wrote: Oh god I so sorry calling you a guy for so long T_T Also the drive by posting by Shining I think if Shining doesn't follow up on that then I could definitely see Shining as Scum but for now null I guess. This seems like a scumread to me? It's not exactly detailed lol | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I've only played with Shining once before, but I would agree with Rsoultin on the Shining vote solely on his behavior in our last game when he was mafia in the early days of the game. She did the same thing, scumreading most people that scumread her each time. It is possible that she just always does that (I'm an easy target if you want to fire back Shining!), but I would say that the chances she's scum are higher than the solid 27% probability for the rest of ya'll. Is it ok to pass judgement based on previous games? What is blue hunting? Sorry I called you a girl LS. You're last post had 0 scumreads. If you were to pick someone to lynch as of now who would it be? | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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jarjarbinks
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On January 06 2015 12:36 rsoultin wrote: It's actually not meta, LS. It's that there are a lot of words with little content, and Shining's read on ExO seems to misrepresent ExO by claiming that ExO is just jumping from scumread to scumread with no logical line of thought. The only change I saw was switching off JarJar before he returned. Everything else was explained to my satisfaction, at least. JarJar mentioned meta. He could link you. Here's the link. Much more inactive game than this one I think the total is 17 pages. I died halfway through the game. I think me rsoultin and shining were in it among others. Very embarrassing ending so it seems lol https://www.starkingdoms.com/community/discussion/3840/finished-the-werewabbits-rise-again-village-lost-but-shining-and-kenshin-lost-the-mostest-/p16 | ||
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jarjarbinks
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 06 2015 13:37 Tubesock wrote: I'd vote Gumdrop too, but I'm hoping he drops some knowledge on us real soon. I'm starting to have more of an issue with people who scum some people for inactivity, or talking about future inactivity but not the ones who are actually inactive. I'm not willing to vote ExO yet (sorry about misspelling your name 1000 times earlier) because even while I disagree with his tactics and whatnot, I think his motivation is town. Maybe you don't have too much of an issue of scumming inactives after all since you voted gumdrop before he made a real post? | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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jarjarbinks
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Shining- Based off 1 past game, I could see Shining’s posts on here being similar to when she was mafia last game. Really weak case though, as I’ve only played with Shining once. I could see her defending her way out of my suspicion, since it is a weak case and Shining has prodded several different people as well as defended herself in the past. Tubesock- If I was a mafia, I would be playing like tubesock. First posts are shallowish, then stepped it up when told to. I haven’t thought his recent posts have been that great, they mostly follow up other’s ideas. It would be posts I could see myself posting if I wanted to post more. Plus he is off Celestial’s scum-list, which does worry me that he will be off other’s as well. A solid defense against my suspicion would be that tubesock is new and is now more confident in posting than he was at the beginning. He has also made analysis, just not at the level as others in my opinion. I don’t think Tubesock would be a smart day 1 lynch because I think we could figure him out later because of the amount of posts he has been posting. Silverarte- If I had to choose someone who was playing similar to LS that wasn’t LS it would be Silverarte. Silverarte has no relative suspicion in comparison to LS which makes me suspicious! Gumdrop- Lack of posts. Most people have given him a pass which isn’t good in my opinion. He has gotten some votes though, despite me seeing myself as an easier target than gumdrop. A good defense against my suspicion would be his last post, which I thought was pretty good. LS- I would file LS as suspicious but someone I would want to not lynch day 1. He has the attention of people, and he posts a lot. I think it should be easier to determine him mafia later on IF he is mafia. I think it would be easier to get backing from others as well based on what I have read on here so far. Suspicions on collaboration (I think it would be stupid to collaborate as mafia day 1, but what do I know): Celestial-Exo: Small hints of collaboration. If I was mafia, I think the best person to estabilish my credibility as town would be Celestial. Have generally agreed with all of their posts. Both went after LS. Rsoultin-Silverarte-LS-me if you would like: Rsoultin generally makes good logical arguments from what I have seen from her and from personal experience. It is very easy to bandwagon her points. Silverarte, LS, and I have all done that already. Silverarte has been on her side since the beginning. You can attribute that to them being friends. LS did bandwagon on Rsoultins ideas, but you could attribute that to LS’s defense. Still worth noting for now. People I’m generally scared of: Celestial- Established great credibility day 1. Your writing style is very similar to a very established economist professor’s. If I was good at this game and was mafia, establishing credibility would be a top priority. Rsoultin- Very good at prodding and generating very logical arguments against people. Which means, if mafia, would be very good at it. Can prod and generate arguments about fallacies in people’s posts remarkably well. If she is mafia, I will have a difficult time reading it and a difficult time trying to convince others of it. People I think are least scummy: HTS-Good analysis and limited posts make it hard for me to be suspicious. Exo- great prodder early day and seems to be flinging scum everywhere. I would try to do this as scum (I think I’d have a better shot at this over establishing credibility lol). I also like that he tried to generate others to talk more (I’m such a hypocrite). Plus, people have been suspicious of him. That makes me a little more at ease about not being suspicious of him just in case he truly is mafia. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
He is gone, and will likely try to lynch whoever he feels is contributing the least when he gets back. I have a sinking feeling... lol | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
#1: Shining #2: Tube #3: Silver #4: Waffle #5: LS | ||
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jarjarbinks
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jarjarbinks
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jarjarbinks
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I didn't see that you were mostly gone on Monday for a reason. I thought you were just not talking. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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jarjarbinks
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On January 07 2015 03:46 Tubesock wrote: Why on earth would someone meta someone who has like 3 games? If you've only played 3 games, why or how on earth would anyone think your play would NOT change? Don't you think your play would IMPROVE after each game? At least until you have say a dozen under your belt? Use it for the likes of Marv or Palmar or whatever, but seriously using it on you with your 3 games? you made me rage when you talked about meta from my ONE game. You really think I didn't sit down and think about what the fuck I did wrong? Or ask others? Why do you think I wanted to shadow the Imperial game instead of play this one??? /endrant Great point. It could help you get a feel for the player though. I haven't changed much since my last game. Definitely a good excuse for most players and meta in this game. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Its enough to keep my from voting for him though. My vote is for the shining. And I already did It in the thread. Still suspicious enough to pick him in my top three and give another option to others who also were suspicious of him (sorry about the "she's" before) | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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jarjarbinks
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I will focus on the 5 who voted for Warwaffle, because you know, they like decided to kill a power role towny AFTER he claimed power role. On a side note revealing the size of my brain, I originally was 80% sure you shouldn’t kill someone who claims a power role and wait at least 1 day, but I wasn’t 100% sure. All this claiming stuff is somehow going over my head. Rsoultin- The mastermind behind the plot! What a surprise! I feel like you literally kill all town in every game lol You have like the worst track record! There should be a new role specifically created for you, much like the vigilante except you just convince everyone to kill town every day. And your role never wins. I will get off that pointless rant and start accusing. I’m just putting you as mafia in my accusations for now, since you have killed more town than mafia has at this point. IF you were playing mafia, in the morning of the death (no I will not grab quotes, feel free to ask me why if you want some excuses. I also didn’t edit, same story), you pick a towny that you know is an easy target. Everyone hates the inactives on this thread, and warwaffle hasn’t posted much of value despite claiming to know things. There were other logical reasons? I don’t remember. Anyways, sounds like an easy enough target. Probably the desperate townies who are being harassed will cling to a logical argument. You check back later and post some more things about shining, but keep your vote on warwaffle. This is smart so are perceived as the main driver on a towny death (day 1 or no this is not the best). You mention not being around at EOD which is also smart. You previously mentioned you were going to be very close to missing EOD before, this will affirm. Maybe you can get “lucky” and change your vote if you see a better target later. You DO get to see the votes before EOD. The waffle train struck gold for you and you have a great excuse! People will treat you like silverarte when vote analyzing. You casually wait a decent amount of time, 40 ish minutes sounds perfect! You rant and rage, show as much indignation as possible. You go off on LS and celestial mostly. Celestial is a fantastic target because he wasted his vote. LS already looks suspicious and voted for waffle. Plus LS looks bad for the last game you guys played together. Did you rant on tube? You should definitely rant on tube if you didn’t, I want to. You will look tomorrow to find a dumb towny who did make a decent vote and go on them (there was a lot of us. I honestly hate my own vote and I didn’t even vote waffle), which will divert attention from you as you look for a good nightkill. Questions for you: 1. What were you doing around 6 central time? Eating Dinner? Working? I know you work strange hours sometimes. Your phone is better than mine so unless you were working I’m not sure what you were doing. 2. Why didn’t you switch your vote to shining at 4 your time? You like diversifying the votes so you can switch later. You would risk vote wasting, but you know if you put your mind to it you could have convinced some of us to follow suit. 3. You mentioned anger at TS, Celestial, and Shining for voting waffle. No tube? Silver has a good excuse, so I can see less indignation there. 4. If you had to pick 2 people on the waffle train that were mafia, who would they be? Let’s say you have to lynch one right now. Who is that? Ok that was long… I’ll do the other ones tomorrow, its past my bedtime and I don’t want to be sick! O crap, more excuses. Sorry guys. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
In all honesty, I hate my decision. I should have picked LS because LS had 3 votes. I would have made 4. Shining wouldn't have switched to Waffle. Maybe someone else could have switched. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 07 2015 22:41 rsoultin wrote: Cool story bro. I've taken the liberty of highlighting the only facts in your long narrative, as everything else is paranoid conjecture. Was tempted to ignore you entirely cause you're clearly already decided on scumreading me, but for everyone else interested in your questions: 1. Work hours are 9-6pm then I drive home in San Antonio rush hour traffic. No access to net at work nor my mobile while on the job. (You know all this JarJar, so coming from you that question just looks like a smear campaign. Bad form.) 2. I do not like vote wasting. 1 other vote on Shining while the people I was trying to convince were resistant...I kept my vote on the scummiest read (to me) actually being pushed at the time. 3. Okay? And? Tube wasn't in the thread like LS and Celeste were to question. He was super tunneled. What do you expect him to answer? 4. I'm not actually convinced that mafia was on the waffle train. Since he's town mafia wouldn't have to be unless they were pushing him instead of a mafia lynch. If Shining is mafia, I already said LS looks super scummy, because his switch could have gotten Shining lynched (only one other vote necessary). And he has in the past been very concerned about lynching blues, so I would think that a blue claim would carry more weight with him. Also, a word to he wise...there are probably not 5 scum in this game. If you are going to scumread every player on a town lynch, especially not knowing the alignments of the other trains, you'll probably run out of townreads very quickly. (Not everyone on that train "decided to vote a power role towny AFTER he claimed power role". Please keep you facts straight when making cases.) You saw the votes right before the end? Why did you switch your vote? You bolded "you DO get to see the votes right before EOD". Why wouldn't you switch? You ranted about how bad a waffle vote was. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
any thoughts? | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 08 2015 09:40 rsoultin wrote: You saw the votes right before the end? Why did you switch your vote? You bolded "you DO get to see the votes right before EOD". Why wouldn't you switch? You ranted about how bad a waffle vote was. Kinda being a donkey here bro. Misquoting yourself now? On January 07 2015 06:36 The_Templar wrote: Day 1 Vote Count jarjarbinks (1): LightningStrike (3): ExO_, Gumdrop (0): TheWarWaffle (4): rsoultin, LightningStrike, Silverarte, Tubesock Tubesock (0): ExO_ (1): Gumdrop The Shining (1): Half the Sky Not Voting (2): The Shining, jarjarbink Currently, TheWarWaffle is set to be lynched. until deadline. The votecount WHICH I SAW BEFORE EOD JUST AS BOLDED ABOVE when I was in the thread and Trfel was saying he didn't want to lynch Shining. Your turn to answer questions. On January 07 2015 02:14 jarjarbinks wrote: List of Scum: #1: Shining #2: Tube #3: Silver #4: Waffle #5: LS Did this list of reads change prior to the end of the vote? You don't even mention LS leading up to the lynch but now you're going on about it. On January 07 2015 08:51 jarjarbinks wrote: I don't know what to think about warwaffle. I'm guessing he's lying about the power role. Its enough to keep my from voting for him though. My vote is for the shining. And I already did It in the thread. Still suspicious enough to pick him in my top three and give another option to others who also were suspicious of him (sorry about the "she's" before) Why wait so long to cast your vote? 9 minutes before the deadline? You were in and out of the thread throughout the day. You're clever enough to vote for Shining, force him to switch to the WW vote, and come out looking rosy because you didn't vote for the blue-claimed townie.[/QUOTE] You responded about 2 hrs before EOD. Not just before EOD. Just before EOD would be like around 6 your time when you got off from work, which I talked about before In my original post. Phone not in the car when you got off work? That was my list of reads before the votes. When I voted LS had 3 Votes (Shining was an LS vote). Shining had two. Waffle had four. Switching off waffle would be a good idea. I picked Shining over LS, but I regretted it because by doing that I caused Shining to switch to Waffle, hence ended much chance of switching off waffle. Honestly, LS was low on my list. Waffle claimed a power role. Am I missing something? Good catch on me being in and out of the voting process. Snow day! I was home. Time to see me be a complete hypocrite about EOD stuff. Building a compy, which turned out to be very difficult! Tried to use my broken compy to stream youtube and get this website. Very frustrating, but I did finish the compy at about 11 ish at night. I would read something about the thread, then look for one of the random parts I threw around the kitchen that I needed. Then forget what part I needed then looked in the manual. I'd get confused, look back at the thread and repeat. at around EOD, I was upset everything was taking so long, and rather cynical about this thread. As time wore on, I switched youtube videos, and started trying to figure out why my compy (the one I was making) wouldn't turn on. I think I checked a few posts an hour before EOD thinking that was EOD and worried I hadn't voted yet. Turned out I was an hour off, so I didn't worry about it. About 45 minutes ish later I saw I was late, read less than what I should have. Confused about lack of votes. Saw there was another thread. Looked at the votes. Picked Shining for reasons I already talked about. Went back to hitting my head against the wall and trying to find random manuals. Finally got somewhere. Saw warwaffle die and angry posts. Saw you saying I needed to step it up. Ranted to myself with much more cynicism. Figured I'd try to make "scumreads" on the killers. Wrote yours. Realized it was 2. Tried to go to sleep and couldn't. I liked my post on you! Sure there isn't much facts, but there's enough for me to see the transitions working if you were mafia. When I saw you bolded my phrase "saw the votes right before EOD" I was happy. To me that's a slip up. You saw them 2 hrs before, which I alluded to a few sentences before that post, so in my mind it is clear that my phrase there was referring to very close to EOD, like around when I voted. I don't look rosy. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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jarjarbinks
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On January 07 2015 23:19 Silverarte wrote: I know JarJar's questions aren't directed at me (and I'm reading them as specifically at Rsoultin right now) but I felt I should answer them, particularly with the schedule in my world seeming to be a problem-ish. So I'm going to quickly answer at least number 1 before I run out the door. 6 central time is 5pm for me, the exact time I'm getting off (if I am lucky). I have a 20 minute to hour long commute (traffic, weather, so on) and immediately come home to trying to eat dinner, settling my household down and helping with sick people (who so lovingly gave me their cold xD). I have to be at work at 8:30 am, but again with that commute. ( Generally leave at 7:30 my time for work) --- @Ls Glad you're back and she's ok! <3 LS, what makes you so suspicious of Shining? In your mind, who is the biggest candidate to lynch right now and why? I know Shining is on your radar, but what makes Shining more important than say...Gumdrop? I believed your missing EOD story more than my sis's because my sis's work schedule has changed often. That's unlucky about your start time, might hurt us consistently if you aren't available to check before voting time. But what can you do, gotta pay the bills. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On to the Scumread, or my attempts of one. I have no stories. No long drawn out story seems believable to me. Based on your posting so far, if I had to guess what you would be like, it would be the silent mafia people generally like. You don’t get much attention, you make claims like everyone else. In the end you will say surprise! Waffle was an easy vote for you, it was logical and you knew he was town. If someone asks you that in the end and you are mafia, I’m pretty sure that is the exact answer you would give. If you are mafia I’m worried because the only attachment you sort of have is to Rsoultin. And its definitely defendable. I wouldn’t even call her out for if you were mafia, because I would have done the same thing if I were in your shoes if I was both mafia and town. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 08 2015 11:04 rsoultin wrote: You responded about 2 hrs before EOD. Not just before EOD. Just before EOD would be like around 6 your time when you got off from work, which I talked about before In my original post. Phone not in the car when you got off work? That was my list of reads before the votes. When I voted LS had 3 Votes (Shining was an LS vote). Shining had two. Waffle had four. Switching off waffle would be a good idea. I picked Shining over LS, but I regretted it because by doing that I caused Shining to switch to Waffle, hence ended much chance of switching off waffle. Honestly, LS was low on my list. Waffle claimed a power role. Am I missing something? Good catch on me being in and out of the voting process. Snow day! I was home. Time to see me be a complete hypocrite about EOD stuff. Building a compy, which turned out to be very difficult! Tried to use my broken compy to stream youtube and get this website. Very frustrating, but I did finish the compy at about 11 ish at night. I would read something about the thread, then look for one of the random parts I threw around the kitchen that I needed. Then forget what part I needed then looked in the manual. I'd get confused, look back at the thread and repeat. at around EOD, I was upset everything was taking so long, and rather cynical about this thread. As time wore on, I switched youtube videos, and started trying to figure out why my compy (the one I was making) wouldn't turn on. I think I checked a few posts an hour before EOD thinking that was EOD and worried I hadn't voted yet. Turned out I was an hour off, so I didn't worry about it. About 45 minutes ish later I saw I was late, read less than what I should have. Confused about lack of votes. Saw there was another thread. Looked at the votes. Picked Shining for reasons I already talked about. Went back to hitting my head against the wall and trying to find random manuals. Finally got somewhere. Saw warwaffle die and angry posts. Saw you saying I needed to step it up. Ranted to myself with much more cynicism. Figured I'd try to make "scumreads" on the killers. Wrote yours. Realized it was 2. Tried to go to sleep and couldn't. I liked my post on you! Sure there isn't much facts, but there's enough for me to see the transitions working if you were mafia. When I saw you bolded my phrase "saw the votes right before EOD" I was happy. To me that's a slip up. You saw them 2 hrs before, which I alluded to a few sentences before that post, so in my mind it is clear that my phrase there was referring to very close to EOD, like around when I voted. I don't look rosy. ...yeeeeah. Cause I'm going to go ahead and bold things to make it easy for you. Bud, I was highlighting the facts. Seeing the vote count before EOD was a fact. You had maybe 5% of that post that wasn't a story you concocted to fit you presupposition that I am scum. I can do that, too. For everyone. Clutter up the thread with BS for each and every player: why SO and SO could be scum from the mind of Rsoultin, now I'm going to write you a story. That's why it is called paranoia. What I don't get, JarJar, is this moaning about how you should have voted LS unless your reads changed and you just didn't mention it. Shining was your top scumread at the beginning of the day. You can say you were at home all day building your computer and that's why you didn't have time to vote earlier, but that's kinda weird, don't you think? Home all day. Can't vote. Huh. Why are you being an ass? Seriously. Of the two of us I'm more likely to be an ass than you, Lt. Chuckles. Wiseass, sure, but pure ass? Lol. Were you ever going to make your promised rage!cases (you raging makes my mind boggle) at anyone else? Or was that all a smokescreen? [/QUOTE] ...lol On the LS thing. I'm not going to say the same thing 3 times. I can't find a way to rephrase. I hope my suspicions aren't all clutter BS later. I hope someone thinks of something I said. That would be nice. If this all everyone thinks of my posting on these then I can stop. Saves everyone time, and I can keep my random guesses to myself. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 08 2015 11:17 rsoultin wrote: Also, because I realize that I did not answer your question in all of that: Yes, my phone was in my car. It was off or it would be dead. I turned it on, turned my car on, and then obeyed that nasty thing called the law and didn't touch my phone while driving.  Regardless, it was after six, so it wouldn't have mattered if I waited for it to come on and spent time sitting in the parking lot catching up on the thread, now would it? Do I need to give people a play-by-play of my day? Does anyone care apart from JarJar since you can't verify it anyway?Your right. I'll stop. You win. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
i'll do it later if u actually want to. I'm going to go pout and workout at the same time. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On January 08 2015 11:29 rsoultin wrote:  Think about those cases you don't have long and hard while you do.Also, I can tell because your typing is cleaner now than when you were on your phone, bro. Really, it's not rocket science. Mine is also cleaner when I'm not on mobile. ya I have no cases. using broken compy still. you're right. Voting for LS, suspicious of Shining and Tube. Basic voting analysis of day 1 votes and night kill. No stories. I tried to have an argument. It was bad. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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Waffle voted tube shifted to LS LS-2 Tube-1 Shining-1 | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Can't find the quote to back me up on this...Shining said something I really liked, right before I voted for him ironically. I swear I'm super good at this game lolz. Then he changed his vote to Waffle and I facepalmed. I still blame myself for that. I think Shining blamed me too later. Apologies. That saying as people have said before I could see a smear campaign on Shining. I see him as an easy target, but not as stupid easy as say me, based on how things played out. As for the "meta read". His defense against it was pure solid. I liked it. It'll be interesting to see if he's just really good at convincing me of things or if it was wrong of me to think he was scum in the first place. Despite that, trfel voted for him and he's 100% dead by mafia. So if there's multiple lynchtrains and shining is one of them, I could be persuaded to vote for him if the other guys haven't shown bad tendencies. The top three for me as of now are LS, tube, then shining. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I honestly sympathized with LS on day 1. It seemed like people were being overaggressive with him. I wanted to focus my suspicions elsewhere since it seemed he was definitely some peoples #1 scummer. So what if he couldn't overanalyze other people and have a decent original scumread? Neither did I, gum, waffle, or silver. What did the scumreads give us day 1? A lot of anger and a dead veteran. Granted you can go back later and look at day 1 posts, but still. That being said, both trfel and waffle voted TS at some point and they are both dead. Were their reasons purely because they were suspicious of TS? nope. but in my mind its better than what else we have right now. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Silver's voting for waffle happened, she literally voted early and didn't see the results till after work. I work too. That's unfortunate. I hope it doesn't happen often! or she is just luckier in her early votes. Either or works! Playing wise, she hasn't done anything to stand out in my opinion. Probably a good thing for her, especially day 1. It'll probably keep her in the game longer. Keeping my eye on her though, it will be interesting to see her plays later. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Reasons to Night kill Trfel: 1. Past games show he's great (do they? it sounded like HTS was deemed as #1 player based on that one game. My sister was even talking about how good HTS was in that game. The only time she brought up the game too. Guess your like really good at this game HTS). 2. Super noobs. I=super noob. I was scared Trfel would lynch me day 1 for my lack of insight because of what people were saying about him before the game started. I think I even alluded that I was scared day 1 if you would to check that. People with lack of insight were day 1 lurkers... that would defend shining in my mind? a mafia lurker would definitely not scumread people no one else scumread that would In fact draw suspicion (im alluding to his hate on Exo at the beginning) 3. Thinking he's like a cop or doctor. I don't like this reason because he wasn't either. I don't think he appeared to be? 4.People thinking he was acting super towny. I disagree with this. One scumread I could make on trfel despite not looking into filter is that he was lost and confused after WW was found to be both town and veteran. Sounds like a basic mafia, almost too obvious to be mafia, but not a great post to say he's super town. 5. other reasons I can't think of. I'm guessing #1 beats #2 because super noob mafia would listen to super good player mafia. In my mind super good player= players that have played the game before. What else would make you super good at this game besides like smarts? Who would be the candidates for reason #1? I know rsoultin has played like 2-3 games. HTS has played games. This is Celestial's first game. Exo no clue. LS has played games...but you know looks like a beached whale. silver's first. my second/first real one. gum's first? tube's 3rd my guess based on posts? I'm missing people. I think someone else would be better at helping me here. Guessing only 1 mafia is reason #1. if there are only 3 people that played often that only leaves a 1/3 chance of picking right on mafia. 3/11 is actually a better %... I swear I will contribute someday. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
dang u coaches. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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I see that post now. I agree with that, I think my thought progression was slowly getting to that as well. Celestial you are good at scumreads! Very detailed and has facts and stuff. | ||
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On January 09 2015 09:26 Tubesock wrote: Also, you really need to start bleeding town. I think people will see my as scum until I die. Honestly trying super hard after Exo blew up on me day 1. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I'm giving my top three lynch targets. They are the same as before. I'm attaching percentages to them. This is % chance they are mafia in my book. 27% (3/10 +/- 3%) is the lowest % you can have. I'm attaching mini-normal % increases based on how the dead voted and giving myself a 3% buffer for on my opinions of their play so far. 1. LS- 46%. 14% increase based on dead votes and a 2% increase based on today's play and the day 1 claim. I still sympathize with LS, but that's why I'm using equations over my feelings. One of the cases I saw with LS in also had everyone on LS's balls for almost the whole game (at least based off votes). 2. Shining- 39%. 9% increase based on dead votes. 0% on my opinions of the 2 days play. 3. Tube Sock- 38%. 11% increase based on dead votes. 3% decrease based on play. The early waffle vote on tube hurt tube a lot. I also wonder if waffle wasn't under pressure, if he would have kept the tube vote. But I have really liked tube's play today. I liked his theory, however flawed it was. My estimate is very flawed. I only have 2 past cases of voting history to go on as of now. I also haven't really attributed any points towards good voting. But it's all I've got, besides my opinions. If I make it back before the votes, count on me switching my vote from LS to a bandwagon I agree with IF my vote is alone AND I can use my vote to lynch someone on this list. I'm providing my %'s of everyone else if you are curious, not explaining them though because its 3 in the morning. Hope this helps understand my thoughts. 4. Gumdrop 33% 5. Silverarte 33% 6. Celestial 32% 7. Rsoultin 31% 8. Exo 30% 9. HTS 28% | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
really? claim doctor? geeez. I bet day 3 someone claims cop. I don't know what will happen day 4. I can see this being a mafia swinged LS lynch. Or it could be that mafia gave up. I would give up on LS if he was mafia. LS, if you die I would like to know who you think is evil. Can you put a top 3 list together? I don't need explanations. I need honesty though. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 10 2015 08:50 LightningStrike wrote: I had a decent case on Scib in Metal on MYLO but Kush was the most stubborn person I ever played with :O my entire 2 posts on ExO pretty much is how I feel about ExO and my suspcions of why him. I actually read that case! well the votes. so Exo #1? | ||
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jarjarbinks
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Ya if HTS is mafia WE ARE ALL SCREWED. Sorry you got boned if your town LS. If I play with you again I will remember this game. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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EZ GAME EZ LIFE | ||
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I could totally see LS reads being good. I'm thinking my vote would be for Exo right now. If I was vigi the vigi shot could definitely save the game or finish us off. Time to nut up or shut up. Or maybe wait a night. THEN its time to nut up or shut up. | ||
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On January 10 2015 23:36 Half the Sky wrote: JJB, a few more questions on your equations and how you applied them. You scumread LS based on the (I assume?) VT claim. Did his post-lynch comments have any bearing on your rating? Shining question I asked before, but will ask again, he's since posted, and you're saying you have no alignment indicative information? You also have different increases based on dead votes, and from D1 voting, Shining, LS, Tube and Silver all voted Waffle. and you have Silver at a max 6% increase based on dead voting, Rasputin even less. You say you are using numbers, but you would think, when they all vote the same person, why are the percentages different (in bold)? I didn't explain my equations because they aren't very sound They are based on what the dead had done rather than who voted for the dead. I think both NK and lynched voted for LS at a point in time. One voted for tube at one point and one voted for shining at another. In my equations, Rsoultin and silver got the pass. Should they have? Prob not. Definitely not the soundest of equations, I should definitely fix them to include everything. I'm wondering if my equations might not apply to this game because #1 its newbie and #2 LS caused everyone to be suspicious of him despite being town. Like hard suspicious. I will still update them and apply them for this next round and hope for the best. But I will also do what I think is best. | ||
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On January 11 2015 03:17 rsoultin wrote: JarJar, please answer my question on ExO. Also, why are you exclusively focusing on who the dead townies voted for? Trfel I can understand. But do you think the lynch trains were started by mafia specifically because of who the dead towns were voting? I'm trying to follow your logic. I did this because it was the key to getting that scum guy I found our first game that no one thought was scum. I thought it could translate to this game and others. I looked through some other cases and found that it could be rather significant. I just checked on how significant votes are that helped lynch a towny. So far (very limited data points) they are much less significant. If I entered it in my equations, Rsoultin silver shining LS and tube would all have been a 1-2% increase. I don't think this would have changed the outcome of my equation because LS was winning by such a large margin. if I have time today, I'm going to add more cases. More datapoints is better and I have so few right now. I missed the question on Exo, sorry. I'll go look for it. | ||
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On January 10 2015 14:15 rsoultin wrote: Also, JarJar...when you said that you were trying to "scumread" the 5 on the WW lynch...with scumread in quotes just like that... Does that mean you were deliberately making cases against 5 players just to make scum cases? I really didn't notice this before, but it legitimately looks like you were contriving the reads on purpose for the sake of making them rather than because you actually believed them... Not only that but you outright lied to me. You lied about having those cases made already, which makes it look like you wanted a reason just to throw one my direction. You lied about using your computer vs. your phone. You probably lied about your work hours...2200? No Lt in an office full of civilians crunching numbers works till 2200. Lie after lie. I don't see reads on Celestial or ExO anywhere really from you. That nullish post. Then saying Celestial is good at making cases (BS, btw, he stole most of the points on Shining from others and emulated your word diarrhea to say the same things on me he'd been saying while making it look like his case had more substance by sheer volume). Finally in your numbers which you didn't explain for people despite their asking you, you buried them in your town list. So LS' death suddenly makes ExO a good lynch? Auto lynch the player that the scummy mislynched towns were scumreading? Please tell me you at least attempted to evaluate his play first, and vet LS' case? I don't like this post. It offends me. I didn't lie about any of that. Closest thing to a lie was saying I hadn't downloaded Microsoft. Which I didn't. If I use my broken compy, every 2-3 pages clicked on here becomes unresponsive. I've developed a way to limit the times it is unresponsive so I've been using the broken compy now. Logic told me that if I add suspicion to people who voted to kill town, that might help get other people to be more suspicious get a better read on the scum. I did not have them "ready" besides the one on you. Your story was the first thing that popped in my mind when I started. I did not write all the cases beforehand. I don't think I said that? I also didn't think they were all scum, and already determined to do what I'm doing now with my case studies to really have my own opinion on scum. My work has gotten more complicated. I'm pretty much doing two jobs now. 10 pm? I never was that late. Latest I've gotten home was like between 7-8 if I can recall it right. Yesterday I got home around 630. For me, the EOD is 7. If you would like to call and talk about it, I would be happy to. I'd rather not start complaining on here about my job though. Ya I have made no reads on celestial and Exo. I complemented Celestials post because his scumread looked better than mine. Exo is on my list as bad right now if that means anything. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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added 2% scum based on what I was thinking his quotes were at the time I remember telling myself, I will laugh wen all of us think he's scum and he turns town. Not as funny now that we are in trouble of losing without even getting 1 right. I'm busy but I will spin my equation stuff up and post my thoughts. Based on knowledge of it I would guess exo and shining are top 2 with a very large dropoff before #3 | ||
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jarjarbinks
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Exo looks doubly bad for the vote LS had on him. Looks worse with the Rsoultin pseudo vote before she died. That will probably give him the most points Shining looks bad because of the trfel vote. on another note. HTS is probably the best person left at this game. If she doesn't get killed by mafia soon, I would be very suspicious of her. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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If Shining is bad, my confidence in reading people will be definitely shot. | ||
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so tube and exo are good and silver is cop. If I take silver's word (there is a godfather chance), which I am, then we have: gum/scott hts shining celestial me (jar jar binks) 3 of us are bad. I know I'm O.K. so In my mind we have a fantastic shot at getting these scummies. I figure most of you think I'm bad because I thought both tube and exo were bad..... To you I say I AM TOWN I AM TOWN I AM TOWN! Seriously, what do people usually do to show defense? I can scumread the others! I'll try to work on something. Don't expect it to be fantastic considering my rsoultin scumread lolz I'll try to answer questions first if I find them in the last couple of pages. | ||
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On January 11 2015 11:34 Tubesock wrote: Can you also elaborate on how to use that information? I don't think professional numbers people and laymen see numbers in any of the same manner. Is this the question I was avoiding? SO. I think at the time the chances of hitting mafia were 30% if no one ever talked or derived anything from votes/nightkills. If I just randomly pulled a name out of a hat (of the 10 people alive I was talking about), then 3 times out of 10 we would hit a scum. The additional %'s points I added were due to votes. The first day I decided that since both people that died voted and then changed to bandwagon, I figured it would work to pretend that was two different votes. So I believe LS was in the 48ish range? hard to remember honestly. I could go look back, but I will keep going for time's sake. so 48% was the 30% plus the additional 16%. I added 2% based on my thoughts. So lets looks at LS vs say HTS. I subtracted 2-3% on HTS so HTS was 27%. In my mind at the time, HTS had a 27% of being scum. (Looks much worse to me now obviously because there's only 4 real options left.) LS had a 48% chance. 48 vs. 27. So generally I would rather vote for LS over HTS on whatever day that was. Day 2? I think it was day 2. In my model I'm trying to be as accurate as possible. That means that my top lynch target probably won't have a 90% chance ever. 48% is very high for day 2 in my opinion. I definitely was on track with most of you thinking LS was bad. I hope this cleared something up. If not ask more questions and I'll answer. | ||
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On January 12 2015 06:24 Tubesock wrote: Maybe JJB needs some motivation. Vote Jarjar. Motivation to....post long posts? Answer your questions? I'm generally lost on this. | ||
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My thoughts and %'s on people. 65% is the BASELINE (75% chance to land mafia with 4 people minus 10% chance of silverarte hitting godfather on exo or tube) 1. Shining 89% 2. Celestial 67% 3. HTS 67% 4. Scott 65% I don't have the others. I don't see a need to go down the list right now either. I will post some more later. I realize this time is the most important. I put my opinions of people in that percentage. | ||
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You can rag my case for being on votes and not what people are saying. Votes are actions, words are words. I'm pretty sure all of you can lie to my face and I would probably believe you. So that's why I'm relying more on votes right now. I'll think about the silver lying/not lying factor and get back to you with my list. | ||
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On January 12 2015 10:46 Silverarte wrote: @Celestial I don't blame you for wanting to enjoy your birthday! =D Now for the nitty gritty. C'mon man! (When you get back). Rather than moping about "What do I do now", why don't you try to help us find the right lynch? I mean, if you're really town, that's what you should be doing. @Jarjar Why is Shining at your top of top? (genuine curiosity. I'm looking for the part that's your opinions, not percentages). Also, just pointing out to you Jarjar..what do I gain by lying at this point? There was no motivation or push for it. I wasn't at the top of the list for anything or anyone. You are my favorite player in this game silver! I hope we play more games together if you like this stuff. I think I will keep playing if my sis plays and people will allow me to play with them =D Hmm your question about Shining is hard for me to answer. I actually gave Shining a -2% for my emotional add-in (in another words I think he has acted very towny despite my model! this sounds very contradictory doesn't it?) You gain a lot by lying. For example, as soon as you said that I automatically assumed both you are town as well as tube and exo. I can see why you picked those two to check as well, unlike celestial. But IF you are a liar, then you exonerate yourself completely as well as at least one of your counterparts. Hard for us to guess right 3 times when in the back of our minds we have already decided that 2 mafia are town. Real cop could counterclaim, but there might not even be a cop in this case. To be EVEN MORE CONTRADICTORY, I will have my updated reads soon, but my past ones are definitely not final. I did not account for claims in my case studies because I didn't want to actually read the 100 pages of crap in each mafia game on here. For this reason, I don't see that it is right to apply those cases to a claim. I didn't do it with celestial on day 2, I don't feel I should do it here. Also, I feel like I am being too confident in what I have found via case study. I don't have enough of them to really base everything 80%-90% of my vote on it. I'm debating whether to give myself more sway based on my thoughts and what you guys have said. Silver, Exo, Tube, Celestial. Whats your scum list look like these days? | ||
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These are my lists... I made one for if silver is telling the truth and one if she isn't. I didn't include either because if silver is telling the truth, she should be on the list. If she IS lying, then she definitely is mafia. I really think she is telling the truth though. On the crap model (I gave myself a 3% buffer this time), I think the best way is to compare the numbers and see the drop-offs. This is % chance they are evil. IF lying (there would be only 2 mafia in this list, as silver would be a 3rd): 1. Exo (54%) 2. Shining (36%) 3. Tube (33%) 4. HTS(32%) 5. Gum/Scott, Gum/Celestial (30%) 6. JarJarBinks (29% you can add or subtract 3% here. I left it at 0) IF Silver=cop (3 mafia in this one): 1. Shining (67%) 2. HTS (64%) 3.(tie) Celestial, Gum/Scott (61%) 3. JarJarBinks (add or subtract 3% based on how you feel) 4. Exo (35%) 5. Tube (10%) O.K. so trying to explain my thoughts derived from this. I apologize to you if this is confusing and/or it seems like I'm hiding behind numbers. Think of it like I'm literally running to them because you guys are all confusing...lol People to look at: EXO! Silver copped him day 1. 1/11 chance she cops him and he's Godfather. Based on his actions, he's above a 1/3 chance! That's craaaaaazy. Look at the difference between him and Tube there. There's people scumreading Exo on here as well. LS (partially why his rank is so high in the first place) and Rsoultin both read him before they died. Shining I really think Shining is good guys. My model definitely doesn't. I did subtract 3% on both lists. I think I made an error on my last post of putting him at 90%. I think I added Exo's points to Shining's 65% baseline (Exo was at 9% without his points added). If someone will kill roleblock in lynch and silver gets a shot at looking at someone, this is who I would suggest. WOULD CLEAR A LOT OF THINGS UP. That on top of seeing the lynch flip could secure our victory. HTS: I'm going to be honest, I added 3% on HTS. Is HTS being helpful? Yes. DO I think she is capable of being helpful but also steering us in the wrong direction without us knowing it. YES! 100 times yes! HTS you are very good at this game. I will probably always be suspicious of you when in doubt. Same goes with my sister... lolz Gum/Scott: I didn't add much of anything on Gum/Scott. Honestly this is my read. Gum comes in playing 1 game before? Sees he's town. Doesn't care tooo much. He sees how everyones bashing people who can't scumread well (LS,waffle,me) and says PEACE. If he WAS mafia, the lack of suspicion despite him being inactive would prob. be enough to keep him in the game. Scott comes in and sees what he is. He sees the dire situation we are in and digs deep. He reads 58 pages of debating and makes some very good cases, trying to make an impact. All that being said, since gum never voted for anyone that died or get voted for by anyone that died, he is the townist one of us all in my model. Huh. Interesting. All that hating on inactives and got 0 votes. Instead we kill our vet and another towny both who were more active despite all the inactive hating. ME! I hope you saw me on the lists. Move me around 3% as much as you will. If you don't like %, then pretend they are points. This is a game of golf, towniest people have the low scores. I HAVE been using numbers. Without a detailed description of my "crap" I could see why you would be suspicious. I AM TOWN (I should probably say that more...). If you lynch me, I hope you remember how I act for if we play again. I probably won't act much different, besides the scumread thing as a punishment (that got a lot of hate lolz). Anyways, before I call it a night I wanted to talk about silver's claim. I believe her. She wasn't in trouble really, and it was a good time to claim. If there was no cop, mafia wouldn't randomly claim in my opinion. It doesn't exactly help them to have their (probably) least suspicious person claim cop with over a day to go. It could be a ploy, but it seems like you would be taking a lot of risk for not much of a reward. Plus if this is a newb game, I could see the moderator at least having veteran and cop (and medic too if that's real). More roles help us learn right? Learning might be as important as balance in this game right? O.K. work is tomorrow for me. Gotta pay the bills lol It is raining outside, who knows I might get a delay/snowday! If not, I will try to check at b-fast and lunch as well as get home before EOD. IF all fails, I'll try to step out of work to read and vote in real fast if something crazy happens. If I find you all lynch trained me, then pretend I made this giant rant about how none of you can make any reads before you see I flip town. I would also say "better dead here then dead at the core." It would have no quotes on people or scumreads either....lolz My vote is for Shining (but I think he's town!) for now. I really am unsure of this vote, please try to convince me that this isn't a good vote. I will change it if I think it is a good idea. Top switch targets for me would be Exo and HTS. I hope this clears some things up when you are thinking about my thoughts. Mesa sorry for the brain power you probably lost trying to get through it all lol | ||
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jarjarbinks
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just got home, excited for a rage | ||
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I think id rather rate my LVP's for this round instead! I bet tubes at the top hes ALWAYS WRONG! ALLLLWWAAAAYYYYSS! | ||
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On January 13 2015 01:52 Half the Sky wrote: Here's mine (if you can't page back) The fact is, this is D3, so you've had a few days over now to explain the numbers in a way that make sense in context. After 3 days and trying to work through things we have to question why you are sticking to the methods that you are when we don't know how to use it and interpret it. I have tried just personally interpreting what you've put forth for the second straight day. In these games if questions go answered, we have to ask what you are hiding. Hmm #1. Exo is like way super suspicious. LS voted for him when lynched. He voted for LS. That's all the model accounted for. That's it. I do value it over your opinions though no offense. #2. sure. Exo got a 22-23% increase from 9% (the chances he was godfather wen silver read him day 1). I think I added 3% there. Based on votes of the dead, who voted for the dead, and 3% buffer on my emotions. I'm pretty emotional. Honestly I'm using these because I have 0 faith in almost all of you to make good reads. Is that bad? Tube was 100% on waffle too. Pretty sure most of us were VERY SURE LS was evil. 0/2 so far. Looks like 0/3 is probably going to happen. | ||
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On January 13 2015 00:00 Tubesock wrote: My point is and it applies equally to -Celestial- is that a town wouldn't care what 1 person thinks. It's flattering that you think I'm influential enough to just boss ExO_ and Half the Sky around and that they'd follow. A town, would make a case trying to help town (look at Shining) and appeal to the thread. You post a sarcastic and funny post that blatantly shows you know your formula doesn't work. -Celestial- is godfather. A cop check on a unCC'd player IS coming, and it would be insanely reckless to think it would be safe to fakeclaim without knowing you will check green. I'm very thankful Silverarte didn't check Celestial earlier, it probably would have lost us the game. I'm equally happy with voting Celestial or Jarjar. I'm certain they are mafia. I trust that my formulas work better than your brain right now. At least they have a shot of getting at least 1 read right lolz lolz lolz | ||
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On January 13 2015 02:11 scott31337 wrote: Now this worries me a lot. You say you think the Shining is town but still vote for him? Your model overrides...? If I listened to my instincts as often as I do now fifteen years ago I'd be a millionaire. How old are you if you don't mind me asking? The Shining has stepped up his last couple posts, that is for sure. I am 24 years old. I have been told I am immature for my age. I hope you thought I was older than 10 tho. | ||
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On January 12 2015 16:55 Tubesock wrote: Jarjarbinks- I think you’re quite funny and will gladly play with you again. It's been a fun game. But I still want to beat you, so don't take my Crap Model jabs too seriously.  Two of his posts and 18 minutes later: That was funny I don't care who you are. Now, more seriously: He’s fully capable of analyzing without his formula. He really avoided offering any reads with something we could read or use. If I were to meta it, I would give a town point though. If I were used to playing games that complete in 17 pages, I'd definitely use formulas or something over talking and behavior analysis. BUT he didn't/doesn't care enough to see how this approach doesn't work in this type of game, with these players, mechanics etc. Reread the bold in the earlier spoiler quote. He scums Shining for what reasons? Then cites what I think are much stronger reasons on me, yet I’m less scummy than Shining? What the what? He also never comes at me. I even ask him to, a couple of times. He continually avoided me. Not till now when if he doesn't he knows he dies. Is this the part (below) where Jarjarbinks "demonstrates" towny behavior due to fearless posting? Obviously not reading the thread enough to have any idea what I want to see before I town someone: His last few posts were in a relative flurry for his activity. At least I think so. He sees town is in a desparate moment and on the cusp of losing the game. He sees this, and does want to win the game. If he were town, he'd see what we need and change his approach to try to help us win. He'd read and pay attention to the what people want. Check The Shinings posts lately. The Shining is laying it all out there. He's trying to help. Jarjar is "trying" too. "I'm generally lost on this." is basically, "I AM MAFIA! I AM MAFIA! I AM MAFIA!" I like how one of your points is pointing to me saying contradictory a lot. I did like PUT IT IN ALL CAPS. I feel like mafia might want to try to appear consistent? Develop some sort of credential? Ehh no probably not! | ||
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On January 13 2015 07:44 Tubesock wrote: Haha, nah, I think you're actually probably way smarter in reality. It's just I'm more towny. Are you? You've killed more townies than me! I killed LS. YOu killed waffle LS and who knows who else! lol | ||
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Jack! Where are you? You're supposed to like save the day and stuff! There's 5 people voting for me and 3 are "town"? You guys might think its right but ITS NOT. I AM TOWN. You guys so sure silver's cop? | ||
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no one wins LVP award. Tie goes to tube and shining for killing the most townies via lynch 3/3! I hope you both are mafia! If not, you should probably not vote next game. You'll kill less townies. | ||
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Dead Jar Jar video for your enjoyment lolz | ||
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the two I saw only had one good role person that I could find. Interesting how the two lynch targets are the guys who questioned silver? But you know, whatever. I'm pretty sure no one is reading anymore lol | ||
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I'm voting for Exo if anyone wants to piggyback. Means I'm more likely to die, but I was going to die anyways. | ||
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good job HTS. You win lol | ||
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I think I will never say the word "number" again in this game! Although I definitely will be using them! | ||
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On January 13 2015 09:16 The_Templar wrote: Should probably have stopped relying on them then?  Maybe you have a point there lol | ||
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