Newbie Mini Mafia LX

On December 31 2014 09:48 TheWarWaffle wrote:

Curiosity and a source of new reading material. I've frequented Team Liquid for approximately 4.5 years, which was first caused by an overwhelming affinity for the newly released StarCraft II. I considered myself a closet expert on everything StarCraft until about 8 months ago. My amount of free time to play and watch games was dramatically reduced, so I started to grow more distant from the game and the community. I never stopped reading the articles and forums, however. Something about them appeals to me, even if I'm not a fan of the game discussed or even part of the discussion.

In my slow-but-steady progress of reading through all the major threads on this site, I somehow avoided the Mafia section entirely, mostly because I was unsure as to what it actually was. I thought it was some sort of online game until about 3 weeks ago, to be perfectly honest. Nothing I had read in other sections or by other users mentioning Mafia explained what it actually was, so...

Anyway, something somebody said made me question what Mafia was again, so I started reading through the threads and found them to be much enjoyable. In an attempt to make myself proactive in posting, I decided to sign up on the first Newbie game I saw.

On December 31 2014 21:52 Half the Sky wrote:

One more you say?
*gently nudges Tubesock*

On January 05 2015 14:07 TheWarWaffle wrote:
I'm glad I read that Mafia XXX: How to Improve thread. So many tells already...

On January 06 2015 11:08 rsoultin wrote:

- Tubesock. The fact that he started with policy when he was scumread for that last game actually makes me lean town on him just because you'd think he'd be more concerned with his image if he were scum. The problem is...we're over 24 hours in and all I see is a post about policy lynching.

On January 06 2015 06:31 -Celestial- wrote:


I'm finding it awkward because I dislike "inactivity" in and of itself as a scum lynch read. I mean if its all there is I guess its a possibility but it makes me very uncomfortable to condemn based on that alone. Although the whole "posting something useful then disappearing" makes it a bit more convincing than simple inactivity or minimal posting like jarjar or gumdrop.

On January 06 2015 11:46 LightningStrike wrote:
Guys I just got back and I will fully explain my thought process on the stuff.
#1 @Exo I had some reads that I said I needed more posts to figure out their alignment so I should of just said Null instead of the comments I said and I know I don't have any real scum reads just yet and I still trying to figure out who is scum and who is not atm


#2 @JarJarbinks I'm a guy not a girl gosh you and Robik keep calling me a girl -.- But thanks for the defense but that HTS post that everyone over analyzed not mine.


#3 @HTS After reading some posts I decided to just read as Null but leaning town after people told me his post was a drive by post and left a lot to be desired but now I starting to town read him


#4 @Everyone here I now going to full explanation of my reads

1. rsoultin: Town: she been trying hunt for scum like her normal self in Student Mafia IV and Carol of the Bells Mafia where she was Vanilla Town in both games.
2. Half the Sky: Town: She made some silly posts at the start yes but everyone over analyzed them but not unusual from her type of entrance since she did similar entrances in Student Mafia IV and Carol of the Bells Mafia and she been asking some good questions towards The Shining and been following through her questioning and also defended her posts in a manor I feel townie from her.
3. ExO_ Town: He actively been scum hunting throughout today and trying to pressure people and normally this type of behavior comes from town players and honestly I not really confident in my scum reads unless it's based on meta on players I played with in other games.


4.Tubesock: Null leaning town: His posts seem to lack any content but his posting style seem to be the same as he did on Carol where I mislynch him like a dumbass in that game but I looking foward to solidify my town read on him.


5. -Celestial-: Town: He been trying to scum himself but he seem to lack confidence on his end on his reads which is something I notice on newer players on forum mafia coming from SC2 Mafia but he doing some decent questioning too.


6.JarJarBinks: Null: His posts seem to lack content but he said he is sick and I hope he feels much better soon but he also needs to step it up if he's town and help us find scum.


7.Grumdrop: Null: He not posted since his entrance post and hope he posts more but for now I need to place him somewhere so Null is the best place for him atm due to the lack of posts from him.

8.Tfrel: Null leaning town: He seem to be inactive but it due to irl so I hoping he post more tomorrow but he had some good questions on his few posts since the game started but we shall see.

9. Silverate: Null: I need more posts to get a clear read on her since she posted so little and I hope she post more tonight and tomorrow!

#5 @Tubesock I will give context to that post you said was worthless. HTS earlier in the thread asked me for my reads on the newer players at the time so that why I posted those reads.

On January 06 2015 12:38 Gumdrop wrote:


As a player who has been inactive up to this point, I think the inactivity is mostly due to the fact that its hard to make reads right now.

There is no solid information on anything presently. That makes life difficult.

On January 06 2015 09:44 The Shining wrote:
Thank you for clearing that up for me, HTS. The main reason I thought you were suspicious was it felt you overlooked it and were more concerned with focusing me. However, ExO saying you're definitely not a Day 1 lynch is something I'll keep in mind going forward...

On January 06 2015 13:01 rsoultin wrote:
Shh no one will trust me JarJar if they know I habitually screw the game in LYLO as town lol >< Course they already know my reads aren't godly. (This is why I encourage y'all to look at the reasoning and evaluate for yourselves.)

Yes, I lost that game for town woot!

And yes, Tubesock, in that context I would say that Shining appears to be sheeping ExO's read. Maybe we should ask him what he meant.

On January 06 2015 14:01 Silverarte wrote:
He has a good motivation ExO does, however, many of the accusations felt angry. That said, posting and offering nothing as Gumdrop is doing...I'm hoping to see more posts. This day one business is really hard to try to scope out anything. I'm looking forward to seeing more in the morning.

For now...to bed with me! I'll duck in before I head to work tomorrow.

On January 06 2015 16:33 The Shining wrote:
On my way to bed and I'm in the process of catching up with everything, I'll elaborate on more first thing in the morning but I had to clarify this. I wasn't sheeping ExO, just shifting my focus from HTS to ExO. I feel that I'm right in my reasoning against him and I was pointing out the possible banding together between him and HTS by him offering a free town read, something he himself said mafia likes to do.

On January 06 2015 23:52 jarjarbinks wrote:


Maybe you don't have too much of an issue of scumming inactives after all since you voted gumdrop before he made a real post?

On January 07 2015 01:27 LightningStrike wrote:

I didn't say Rsoultin was scummy wtf. Tfrel in his pregame gave a excuse that he going to be missing most of Day 1 and I going to see how he does in the Night stage and Day 2. Silver I think she is town she gave some decent explanations for her reads and asking some questions towards ExO although she isn't here because work atm so I fine with her for now. I might be bias towards you because I feeling very guilty of lynching you on Carol but so far I got a green check on you but I guess time for tell for me. HTS opening might be weird for people who not played with her a lot but her opening is similar on how she opened on Carol and Student Mafia IV and she been asking some questions and asking people for reads. I feel people over analzyed her 2nd post as I mentioned that earlier in the thread.

On January 07 2015 01:23 Tubesock wrote:
WarWaffle is basically a policy lynch for me.

My leading contenders for votes would be Shining, or JarJar. I like where the questioning by rsoultin and HTS are going concerning Shining and I want more from her/him. JarJar while I think is funny (not to be confused with town) I have the same problems with as I do you Lightning. JarJar has like 2 good posts and the rest is fluff. You at least are trying and posting more so that looks more towny than Jarjar.

On January 07 2015 01:27 LightningStrike wrote:

I didn't say Rsoultin was scummy wtf. Tfrel in his pregame gave a excuse that he going to be missing most of Day 1 and I going to see how he does in the Night stage and Day 2. Silver I think she is town she gave some decent explanations for her reads and asking some questions towards ExO although she isn't here because work atm so I fine with her for now. I might be bias towards you because I feeling very guilty of lynching you on Carol but so far I got a green check on you but I guess time for tell for me. HTS opening might be weird for people who not played with her a lot but her opening is similar on how she opened on Carol and Student Mafia IV and she been asking some questions and asking people for reads. I feel people over analzyed her 2nd post as I mentioned that earlier in the thread.

On January 07 2015 01:32 LightningStrike wrote:

Shining is a guy but I do the questioning from HTS and rsoultin onto Shining. JarJar seems to be the lurker type of town I played with on Metal Mini Mafia where one of the players there was a posting nothing bgut songs and wouldn't give reads but yes JarJar does not a lot to be desired but I hope he steps it up today since today we are lynching someone.

On January 07 2015 01:43 -Celestial- wrote:+ Show Spoiler +





I think I'm still somewhat tainted by rsoultin's original impression on me. I really, really didn't like what appeared to be bluehunting (the reasoning for which I posted a little while back, I can quote it if you like). Though she has improved somewhat since that I'm still wary.

Gumdrops I've just flat out not seen enough from to make much of a judgement call. Same with Trfel. But both of them posted something that appeared to be reasonably thought out so slight leanings towards town. Trfel also stated in advance he wouldn't be around for a bit and Gumdrops just seems awkward about posting. I can't condemn either of them to scum for that.

Silver I have literally no idea about, as I posted. I'd appreciate anyone else's thoughts because to me it just appears to be a mix.

You didn't start great which is why I leaned you towards scum, but I didn't find your opening to be as scummy as rsoultins was and you've both improved in my eyes to the point where you're both back to neutral. But since rsoultin started off with slightly more damning posts you're slightly more in the townie direction than she is.

On January 07 2015 01:56 -Celestial- wrote:


You make a fair point; but in defence of my reads I'm trying to disregard anything that doesn't actually pertain to the game itself (so off topic stuff I don't really look at unless its ALL there is). In your case I posted earlier why I didn't like your opening post and then you disappeared kinda so I didn't have a lot to go on and at that very early point it was very suspicious to me.

Since then, of course, you've posted a lot more on-topic stuff which has helped a lot.

On January 07 2015 01:55 Half the Sky wrote:


I don't understand a couple of her reads, her progression on Waffle from a substantive part (the lurking is obvious), and I don't understand why she's scumreading Rasputin or why she isn't answering Rasputin's question, not from what I can tell anyhow.

I don't know if it's because she's new or if she has something to hide.

On January 07 2015 02:12 LightningStrike wrote:

She didn't ninja vote she posted why she voting for WarWaffle earlier on Page 17 I think the page number was you could look through her filter by clicking a link to her filter at the OP.
Also to be fair about -Celestial-'s off topic stuff someone said he looked like he played a lot of mafia so he responded that he played SC2 Mafia and I kind of brought it off topic to him so my fault there.

On January 05 2015 15:01 Tubesock wrote:
Looks like everyone is already gone asleep.

I like that rsoultin is already building cases.

I think JarJar is pretty funny. Maybe case building also runs in the family?

On January 07 2015 02:31 -Celestial- wrote:


Pretty sure it was a pressure vote by rsoultin wasn't it? Because of WW's claim that he had loads of stuff and then just going silent?

Everyone seems to be running away with it for some reason and I just don't know why to be honest. I don't think WW is in the clear but I really don't think its our best lynch either.


I agree with the assessment that its a safe vote if she's scum. But in and of itself I don't think it says she's scum.

On January 07 2015 03:35 jarjarbinks wrote:
I made that comment because I thought it was humorous that your post scummed (is that a word) out gumdrop for inactivity and complained about scumming people for inactivity. And you followed up with a vote on him which I thought was more funny. I thought you voted for gumdrop to make him talk and complain about inactivity. Not policy vote.

On January 07 2015 03:38 LightningStrike wrote:
JarJar please read the link I posted on this page so you can see my scum play. Notice my filter was really small and I wasn't as active and was very timid?

On January 07 2015 04:31 ExO_ wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

If people think there is a better case than LS, please present it to me again. Or if theres a reason I should not be voting him today that I've missed. Because so far I don't see it.

Totally unrelated to the game: Could somebody also please clarify who I should be calling "she". I've gotten confused in the thread, and it would bug me slightly if I'm getting it wrong.

On January 07 2015 04:52 -Celestial- wrote:


Honestly I really don't like the WW lynch. It just seems...well kinda silly honestly.

On January 07 2015 04:59 Trfel wrote:
Wait, the voting deadline is tonight? I thought it was tomorrow night....

BTW I am here and am doing a careful rereading of the thread. I will post my thoughts and my vote when I am done, with explanations of course.

On January 06 2015 23:35 The_Templar wrote:
Day 1 Vote Count

jarjarbinks (0): ExO_
LightningStrike (2): ExO_, -Celestial-
Gumdrop (1): Tubesock
TheWarWaffle (1): rsoultin

Currently, LightningStrike is set to be lynched. until deadline.

On January 07 2015 05:07 ExO_ wrote:


Correct me if I'm wrong but is there any example of his mafia play? If there isn't any evidence to show that he'd act differently as scum, then I think the town-meta-read on him is garbage. And even if there is, his play here in this game seems scummish to me. It doesn't matter if in a previous game similar play from him was town. It might if I was on the fence with him, but I'm not.

Which is why I think he IS the day 1 mafia lynch. I think he's trying to be active enough so that we have to say "He's a bad day 1 lynch." Compared to the other candidates (Shining/JarJar/WW) I think he's the best bet. I believe it strongly enough that I'm not willing to concede the vote for now, subsequently voting for one of the others.

On January 07 2015 04:51 TheWarWaffle wrote:
My apologies for the inactivity. I give no excuse other than the fact that my life is busy.
+ Show Spoiler +

Currently, Tubesock has my vote. I'd like to hear other people's opinions as well.

On January 07 2015 05:20 ExO_ wrote:


It gets a lot harder then. If he is mafia (as I suspect) then he'll have nothing to lose by claiming a blue role.

It'll depend on if he claims blue, and what specific blue role he claims. I won't ignore it, but will make a decision when I see what he says.

On January 07 2015 05:23 LightningStrike wrote:

Because ExO and Tube pretty much asked me to claim.

On January 07 2015 04:51 TheWarWaffle wrote:
My apologies for the inactivity. I give no excuse other than the fact that my life is busy.

+ Show Spoiler +

The Shining: Town

The Shining has not posted all that much but the quality of posting changed drastically as soon as the game started. The Shining asks questions where they need to be asked and maintains a cordial aloofness towards everyone who is playing. No person is accused of anything without evidence.

jarjarbinks: Light Town

Jarjarbinks' behavior sets off no alarm bells in my mind even though he lurks more than he posts. The posts he does make are normally short and succinct, and while many of his posts appear misleading at first, they work in the context. I think the only reason he is voting for me is because other people started the wagon.

Gumdrop: Town

Gumdrop hasn't said much but from what was said I glean bits of Town. The reasons given for not posting more are adequate, and the type of posts implies a desire for something to happen, something the Mafia does not want. The posts that were made are logical and forward-thinking. A more Mafia-oriented lurker would post more misleading information.

Silverarte: Possible Mafia

The ease of which Silverarte hops aboard the bandwagon train is startling. Silverarte was leaning towards ExO_ and Gumdrop being scum, for the reasons of aggressive accusations and "posting and offering nothing" respectively. Somehow, both of these are forgotten as soon as she jumped on my vote bandwagon. For someone who admits she's new and even goes as far to use that as defense for gumdrop her voting for me makes no sense based on her previous actions. The previous existing relationship between Silverarte and rsoultin gives cause for the sudden change of thought, but even so...

ExO_: Light Town

My thoughts on ExO_ have flipped back and forth for some time now. Initially I thought he was town for being the only one willing to aggressively step and take affirmative action. After that, I thought he was scum for simply spreading accusations thin and putting a cloud of doubt over everyone, which is scum-like behavior. Though his disappearance is suspicious, it does not seem implicative.

Tubesock: Mafia

After looking at all of Tubesock's posts, I strongly believe that he is Mafia. His posts, while numerous, are short (#3) and always seem to detract from the conversation rather than add. Very few of the accusations presented by Tubesock are his; most are other people's regurgitated ideas. I think Tubesock's passive beginning was only due to the low amount of traffic it received, and #1 that his "coming out of his shell" was him realizing that he could take advantage of it. Several times he has posted about the inactivity of the thread, which seems redundant when your very post makes it active. Tubesock #2only did this to make it look like he cares. A Mafia player wants there to be confusion, chaos, and distrust in the thread. Do Tubesock's actions create clear, organized discussion? I don't think so.

On January 07 2015 06:12 ExO_ wrote:



He literally soft-claimed, then hard claimed. And you don't call that fear? There is panic in his posts.

I don't like your rushing to his aid here. I see all sorts of fear in his posts, how can you not see any of it?

On January 07 2015 06:44 ExO_ wrote:
Re-reading the case on WarWaffle, I think there is a lot of scum indications there, but for me it's based on his bizzare reads. He defends somebody like gumdrops in a way that makes no sense. Gumdrops is clearly inactive and not contributing a lot to the thread. He defends shining and jarjar. JarJar's post aren't anything like he makes them out to be, and shining is not the paragon of asking the correct questions.

His post is so wrong that I would honestly believe he was jester. It's definitely scummy. It paints the 3 mafia as himself/JarJar/shining. But it does this so blatantly that it scares me. And then he hardly says anything about LS.

I don't know. It does make me question whether or not the best lynch is LS.

On January 07 2015 06:54 Trfel wrote:
I apologize to everyone (well okay, just the townies), I don't have time to read everyone and choose the ideal lynch target based on only my own analysis. My fault. I will do better next time.

The bandwagon on TheWarWaffle feels like a policy lynch. The read on Half the Sky is extremely weak, but others have done the same thing. Still, I like the fact that he is analyzing wording and constructing an argument, even if I disagree with said argument.

He only really has two posts in the game. The second one is a big list post. I disagree with several of the reads, but nothing jumps out at me a ton. Therefore, there isn't much to work with at all on this case. I don't really see why this makes TheWarWaffle scum, except for the lack of posting.

On January 07 2015 07:00 rsoultin wrote:
meh...gonna have to leave my vote on ww with no feedback...

He's OMGUSing anyone who scums him
His top town are the threads top scum
He isn't consistent at all in his reasoning for his reads. He will scum and towns people for the same reasons.

We've asked him questions and he bailed again...

I'm rereading his 5ish posts and I'm having trouble finding town in them.

On January 07 2015 07:48 Half the Sky wrote:


Yea, this is why I want to see responses from him to our questions, I want to hear from him, as do others, but he needs to find a charging station first...

On January 07 2015 08:00 Trfel wrote:

No, I guess I think that TheWarWaffle is probably a bit scummier than LightningStrike. At least LightningStrike has shown activity.


No, I'm reading your filter and trying to decide if you are town or scum. There is a big difference.

On January 07 2015 08:05 The Shining wrote:
First, two things to help clarify. One, I'm a he. Man. Dude. Whatever. XD Second, I mentioned yesterday it was my weekend, I go back to work tomorrow. Normally, I sit around on the computer on day but family has been kidnapping me for the first weekend I've been available since New Year's so I apologize for my lack of activity.

To HTS: I answered that for you already. You asked where I was getting the "blue-hunting" from and maybe it was just a misunderstanding on my part, but when Rsoultin posted this:



At the time, it felt to me like that was her trying to get Silver to elaborate and get a possible free read. If Silver responds with "I'm talking about so and so, could they be -insert power role here-?" it could've given clues as to who is or isn't. Once Silver elaborated that she meant "It makes me curious when Rsoultin is energetically after scum right at the get go. Could they be scum?" I realized I was wrong and that is why I haven't mentioned much of it since.

As for sheeping ExO's town read and giving him a scumread in the same post, I was only going off of ExO's own remarks. As he said, Mafia loves to give free town reads to people. At first, HTS was only leaning scum to me for avoiding WW's line of questioning. Once HTS responded, I wasn't quite convinced she's leaning town until ExO gave her a townread and blatantly said she's not a good Day 1 lynch. Since then, she has built decent town cred. How convenient would it be for ExO as scum to side with someone he KNOWS is town?

Also, since meta was brought up, I would say throw mine right out the window. As it was mentioned, that game I played as Mafia was very inactive as it is and I never take those very seriously at all. This is quite literally my first time playing an actual serious-setting Mafia where reading posts and getting reads is important, as opposed to sitting back and letting people give themselves away.

On January 07 2015 08:06 Trfel wrote:
Please, respond as soon as you would like.

My vote is currently on The Shining, reasons stated previously as inactivity, poor play, and sheeping rsoultin and Half the Sky.

On January 07 2015 07:06 Trfel wrote:
I guess I don't like lynching TheWarWaffle, LightningStrike, or The Shining. Yay. Not super convinced that any of them are scum.

So I suppose that I prefer a lynch on The Shining over the other two, since The Shining has been reasonably inactive, despite constantly saying he will play more. I like some of the points rsoultin brought up (primarily the constant references to posting more soon... I get it the first time, or the second time, but now it seems like stalling to try and avoid getting lynched... kind of mad that I didn't notice that for myself). The other reason to vote The Shining is to sheep Half the Sky and rsoultin. From my experience, both are very good players, and they think that The Shining is mafia. They have also kept up with the thread better than I have. Is he saying he's basically townreading WW, LS and Shining? But due to not being caught up, he's going to sheep Rsoultin and HTS? It explains his ##Vote: The Shining
+ Show Spoiler +

On January 08 2015 22:41 rsoultin wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
Tube...you're talking about why you think Trfel was killed, suggesting that LS and to a lesser extent Shining probably aren't scum, but you haven't said anything about who you think is scum. Do you have anyone in mind?

On January 08 2015 23:31 -Celestial- wrote:
Which one? That big long post you made predicting which kill?

On January 09 2015 04:26 LightningStrike wrote:
Also @Tubesock Tfrel seemed Neutral on me and Shining as far as I had read his filter before his death and honestly the WIFOM stuff should be check on and see who would gain the most from Tfrel's death.

On January 09 2015 04:47 -Celestial- wrote:
EBWOP: I mean I could be missing stuff here. I've just gone over my notes really quickly and done a quick bit of filter diving on that whole period so something may have slipped under my radar.

On January 09 2015 05:08 ExO_ wrote:


If you really believe that, it's incredibly poor play. And it doesn't even make sense. There's nothing to rage about right now. While I think he looks scummy as hell with his over-concern with appearing innocent and lack of trying to find scum at all, he's not being rude or anything.

Explain this to me.

On January 09 2015 05:16 LightningStrike wrote:
Tubesock I'm town and I think with Celestial putting his vote on JarJar alone was extremely scummy and one member of the mafia in a game which I shadowing a player in pulled that move and was scum so I going off my new scum and also I had read ExO's case on Celestial and all for it.

On January 09 2015 05:24 LightningStrike wrote:
Tubesock you must lynch scum not me as I'm not scum also here my scum game if you need to check my scum meta.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/471489-student-mafia-iv-new-newish-players-welcome?user=LightningStrike

On January 09 2015 05:28 ExO_ wrote:



I don't know what to say. I don't think saying he was posting fluff is expressing any significant amount of doubt. This means that you were not suspicious of him, and didn't really express it until after I did.

You backed off of LS after I left the thread for a while, and didn't get back on to him until 6 posts and 12 minutes after I showed that his current playstyle (everybody's town) matched what he did in a mafia game.

Regardless whether or not you used my reasoning or your own, this is the timeline that happened. Two times after I went after LS, you followed it up. You claim the 2nd time was for different reasoning. Okay, I could see that. But then I'm asking myself, why would you lie about the initial suspicion? I don't think your first post demonstrated suspicion of LS at all.

I'm significantly more convinced LS is scum than you. But I think you did lie, or at least heavily overrepresented your initial suspicion of LS.

On January 09 2015 05:28 Tubesock wrote:


This. This makes me fucking rage. I'm trying to fucking defend you. And you give me some bullshit meta which I've ALREADY FUCKING YELLED AT YOU FOR DOING?????

Who cares what you did in another game? You are acting so scummy in THIS GAME. That meta will just tell me you were MORE SCUMMY THAT GAME!

On January 09 2015 05:43 -Celestial- wrote:


My original post was intended to imply doubt in LS. I'm sorry if it didn't come across that way. In essence I wanted LS to post more of substance because at that point to me it looked suspiciously like LS was deliberately avoiding doing so, which I disliked. The key sentence was:
"Not really sure what to make of that honestly."
Which was intended to be a prod in LS' direction saying "I don't like your posting, convince me you're town".

Call me describing it that way as "overrepresenting" it if you wish, but I didn't outright lie here. -_-

On January 09 2015 06:34 LightningStrike wrote:
I willing to listen if you give me a question about the night post because I seeing that you think me and Shining not scum but that all I got out of it if you wondering if I did read it.

On January 09 2015 06:38 LightningStrike wrote:

Okay what you want?

On January 09 2015 07:06 -Celestial- wrote:


Just a sec I'm writing up a complete filter dive on LS because tube wanted a full analysis from me on my best target.

On January 09 2015 07:09 LightningStrike wrote:

Well what is your tinfoil hat conspiracy? I'm sure everyone will listen to you since everyone is town reading you clearly.

On January 09 2015 07:13 -Celestial- wrote:


Ugh...I've just spent like half an hour on this so far and he's by far my best read after the shenanigans on the other page. You don't want it? :-\

On January 09 2015 07:25 -Celestial- wrote:


Alright if we're so certain about the LS wagon for D2 I'll scrap this dive and have a look at someone else. I'll keep it in a word document in case we need it again though.

I'm going to need to work this out though before I can give you one. jarjar I didn't like primarily off the back of his D1 stuff, which I felt was largely useless and poorly thought out. His attitude post-flip though has been a LOT better and frankly I've not really been thinking ahead to the D3 lynch yet because we still have more than 24 hours of this to go, plus the full night to start thinking about D3 lynches.

I've got a reasonable feeling about Shining, but that might just be a hangover from D1. And I still don't like rsoultin's actions but I'm not sure if I can condemn because whatever I say about words vs actions her explanations seem to ring somewhat true. I've already mentioned my concerns about rsoultin earlier though when we were questioning each other after the D1 EoD flip.

On January 09 2015 07:29 ExO_ wrote:
@Celestial why do you think scum nked trfel?

On January 09 2015 07:41 -Celestial- wrote:


Not one as strong as the one I now have on LS. Before LS my D2 preferred lynch was likely to be Shining based on a bunch of stuff from D1, largely because jarjar had redeemed himself post-flip.

The problem I'm having now is that your earlier posts coupled with reviewing the voting pattern has got me convinced that only one of Shining/LS is scum. So I'm having a great deal of trouble matching up those two contradictory things (the read on Shining coupled with the stronger read on LS).

What are your current thoughts on any potential LS/Shining partnership or have you ruled it out by now?

On January 09 2015 07:45 ExO_ wrote:


Walk me through this. Why wouldn't trfel die if just LS is mafia?

On January 09 2015 07:50 -Celestial- wrote:


+ Show Spoiler +
As I understand it your argument is that unless they're BOTH mafia then the Trfel kill makes no sense, right? My counter to that would be that you yourself said that Trfel is a good player, correct? And he's played before? This would seem to imply either the mafia team has someone who has at least observed Trfel played before, but that could be anyone so its not really helpful. In any case the point is that you've identified him as a strong player; and I'm sure other experienced mafia players will have done the same.
+ Show Spoiler +

On January 09 2015 08:03 ExO_ wrote:


It did to a degree. Let me ask you another question. Trfel said he didn't like any of the lynches. Having reread his filter a couple times, I found something to be odd. Before the it became apparent that WW or LS or Shining was likely to die, there was only one person whoose opening post he specifically mentions as being off. He never got to really expand on it, but can you guess who it is?

On January 09 2015 08:04 -Celestial- wrote:


I can't really follow this train of thought. You're saying that if one of the mafia were up for lynch you'd want to NK one of those pushing the mafia lynch, despite it being incredibly obvious? Surely that's just hoping that someone will start to WIFOM the NK on the basis that its so obvious that it can't possibly be that simple?

On January 09 2015 08:04 -Celestial- wrote:


I can't really follow this train of thought. You're saying that if one of the mafia were up for lynch you'd want to NK one of those pushing the mafia lynch, despite it being incredibly obvious? Surely that's just hoping that someone will start to WIFOM the NK on the basis that its so obvious that it can't possibly be that simple?

On January 09 2015 08:17 -Celestial- wrote:


Bit rich considering that the post was this:



And that his very last comments on anyone were actually him starting to filter-dive you to look for indicators:

On January 09 2015 05:34 Tubesock wrote:


To -Celestial-:

Lies and such aside. I think part of ExO's point is you haven't really stuck your neck out for any read. I'd love to see you cash in some of this town cred you have and really force-ably push a case. You have to have more than 1 scum read. LS is an easy lynch. Building a case on him is a waste of time and shows no risk.

You decided to stay off a main wagon and park on JarJar. Build your case. He's pretty scummy.

On January 09 2015 08:25 ExO_ wrote:


Other than LS, who are your top 2 scum reads and why?

On January 09 2015 08:34 Half the Sky wrote:
EBWOP - ALSO adding to the potential variability in NKs is the fact that this game is an open setup. I forgot that point.

On January 09 2015 08:55 Half the Sky wrote:
Tube, people can breadcrumb their roles by accident.

It has happened. An example again from Carol. ObiWanShinobi, an experienced player disputed LoneMeow being town RIGHT BEFORE THE DAYPOST. (That's an example of a hint right there.) LoneMeow was recorded as being shot D2.

The scumteam picked up on that and he was shot the next night, flipped vigilante. Vivax did later on as he traced that NK in the actual thread, but the point still stands.

I am not disputing your train of thought, I can see where you are coming from, but you have to keep all options open.

As for Celestial, I definitely want to see more reads from him. I'm filter diving him right now. to see if I can grab anything indicative using my own thought process. I see why others have scumread him.

On January 09 2015 09:04 Half the Sky wrote:


This is all speculation. It depends on the coach's interpretation. Since you are asking me the question, if I were coaching a medic, it would depend on my interpretation of people, knowledge of people, if I think someone let the cat out of the cover (or breadcrumbed, as you put it) as a role, also depends on mechanics (varies by mod) since some medics cannot save the same person twice in a row, etc.

And now, you just gave me your own interpretation of whom you'd save or shoot, someone else that had different reads or understandings would take different actions. Also if someone has multiple town reads, they cannot save all of them.

Again, this is all WIFOM for a reason.

On January 09 2015 09:18 jarjarbinks wrote:
Also reasons that the above doesn't work: coaches...

dang u coaches.

On January 09 2015 09:18 jarjarbinks wrote:
Also reasons that the above doesn't work: coaches...

dang u coaches.

On January 09 2015 09:30 rsoultin wrote:
...you know, regardless as to whether you guys actually believe that I work until 6pm CST, you should at least not be surprised when I'm not in the thread during my stated work hours. ^^

Accusing me of lurking is kind of amusing.

If anyone has questions/comments (yes, I have read the debating back and forth) I will be watching the thread, but I want to actually take the time to look at things and think them over without interference. Tomorrow we have a going-away in the afternoon, so with any luck I'll actually be here at EoD this time.

However, since I can't be sure about making EoD, I want to take the time to really look at people (so many nullish/scummy reads right now ><) and figure out the best one(s) to put up for lynch/vote on.

On January 09 2015 09:31 jarjarbinks wrote:


I think people will see my as scum until I die. Honestly trying super hard after Exo blew up on me day 1.

On January 09 2015 09:44 rsoultin wrote:
Okay. To be clear, Tube my friend, you are not really a town-read for me right now You seem to think you're getting a pass just cause I'm not questioning you. That you appeared to be heavily tunneled is undeniable, and that would be the answer to any question I asked you. Thus I see no point in questioning why you were voting WW.

That said, your participation today, and really throughout the game, does seem towny to me at first glance. Your "tinfoil hat" theory is a possible one, though HTS is right that it is just one of several possibilities.

Mostly I just wanted to know what happened to you, since you were participating so much earlier but then seemed to not care to. Your posting today debunks that though.

On January 09 2015 09:51 rsoultin wrote:
Lol, what would I ask you, Tube?

Why did you scumread WW? It's in your filter. Why didn't you pay attention to his claim? It's in your filter. Would you answer differently as scum or as town? Nope. This is why I'm not asking, and probably why most aren't.

Though I can ask and will ask for your reads...if you had to pick only two people out of all of us left, who would you lynch as scum? That's the answer I'm trying to work out for myself right now. ^^ I'll post here once I narrow it down and get my thoughts organized.

On January 09 2015 10:35 -Celestial- wrote:
Also...of course...nothing personal rsoultin. Its just how I've seen your overall posts go. I know we've discussed it in bits and pieces over time but as a whole I'm still suspicious.


Anyway, goodnight.

On January 08 2015 14:35 Silverarte wrote:
Well! Soultin took pity on me and told me about the Filter function. Let me tell you...that helps so much. (Who knew that going page by page out of all of these was a 'bad' idea? XD)
So, I think first and foremost...I owe a recap of what I think everyone is!

The Shining: You, my friend, are getting scum votes all over the place! And I'm not entirely sure what to make of you just yet. Part of this is certainly my inexperience, but I felt you defended yourself relatively well here in your second post. The first ones you gave flipped back and forth, but it looks like you're backing your decision this round. I'm neutral, leaning towards towne.

HTS: You asked my motivations and thoughts on what's transpired so far. Personally, my first thought is 'Crap, we're getting picked off!". In regards to Waffle, you're right, I sheeped (I believe this means when we're following the votes of others rather than something else, right?). I did this because the cases being made were more reasonable to me at the time. When I was scumming ExO and Gumdrop, I wanted to give them the opportunity to respond before I condemed. I can't say I tunneled, but the sudden silence on Waffle's part made me more suspicious than anything.

As for how I feel about you? (Sheesh I wish we didn't keep missing each other! Well, if I survive til the weekend, I have that off? =D) You've been very consistent and straight forward. You are a straight on town read for me. What are your assessments currently?

Also, in answer to your last post you popped up...I have never played this game before. I am a complete newbie and this is game number 1. (Soultin had been talking about Mafia games continually and I told her I'd try it out). So if it's hard to read me, believe me when I say I find it difficult to read all of you. I'll keep trying though. =)

LS: You are a constant poster, and points to you for that. You do a great job keeping other posters engaged and getting people talking and questioning. I looked through your filter through the beginning. (talk about a read!). Currently, looking through your posts, i'm reading a lot of generalization and little to no specifics on your reads at the moment. I'm growing steadily suspicious of you, particularly with your votes following the 'sheeping trend' (hee...I like that phrase), but I'm seeing little to nothing else. Can you tell me how you're feeling on the people here in, in what way you're leaning and why?

JarJar: I'm not sure what EOD means, but yes, that whole crazy paying the bills thing is biting me in the rear at the moment. Now then...let me bump back to replying to your post at me. That being said, I'm not sure if you just called me out on being scum or not. So, I'll respond as though you did and if you didn't? Weelll...bonus information? =D

I'm discovering one of the hardest things about defending yourself from that view is activity with posting. To compensate, I do my best to post when I come home and before going to work. THAT said...my vote on Waffle was indeed sheeping with Rsoultin. She wrote a good defense and looking back through the posts (which I was going page by page at the time...gosh I love filters) it made logical sense to me. And for me, that matters. That said, in defense against being scum, while I sheeped a vote, I have not tunneled towards anyone and I've been open and honest about what I thought and why.
So let me direct a question or two towards you. You aren't out of the suspicion waters yet with me! =P Following what you said about voting LS, what is your reasoning for it? What ranks him above Tube or Shining?
Gumdrop: I have to admit, I'm more than a little concerned about you not posting,my friend. When you show up, share your thoughts! Who's suspicious? Who isn't?
Celestial: You're been prolific in your posting, and it's led me to think town for you at first. The throwing away of your vote (as you put it) still puts a redmark on you to watch. I think my biggest fret is the free town passes early, straight to the vote...and then I'm not seeing much here about trying to contribute for the town and it feels floaty about-ish. Is Rsoultin your biggest target right now? Why?
Tubeshock: I'm just neutral on you. You put thought into short bits of words. I'd be really interested in knowing what you think of everyone at this point too. Are JarJar and Shining still your top picks?

On January 09 2015 10:52 -Celestial- wrote:
Oh and I'm sorry I can't answer more questions tonight. Thing is I've been actively writing and getting bombarded with stuff for something like six hours straight now by a bunch of people (I started addressing stuff at like quarter to 8 or something, its ten to two in the morning right now and I've only moved for a twenty minute break to get food). I'm exhausted and my mind is totally fatigued. I badly need a rest.

I'll try to make sure I've not missed any by checking over tomorrow. Goodnight.

On January 09 2015 11:19 Half the Sky wrote:


Well I try and ignore the tone of certain players when they post. 27NB runs into the same problem to use another example. I have already seen in other games people have been wrongfully read for their tone alone. I look for asking questions, which she does do, but it shouldn't be the only thing after some time. I look for things beyond that at certain points of the game. D1 this is okay, and maybe D2, but after that, I would expect some prioritisation of scumreads. But that's just me looking at my first game here.

Looking more in depth at that post for example, the word "recap" is generally speaking, a red flag. Scum tend to repeat things sometimes without taking things further. Yes she should be updating her reads, but "recap" makes me wonder as I read through if she's doing just that as she gives her reads. Which is why I think you are getting the impression that you are, Tube.

I'm aware she's short on time, she appears short on time to play this game...but that's not alignment indicative. So it is hard to determine if it's coincidence or convenience.

On January 09 2015 11:59 rsoultin wrote:
...was that an answer to my question? What does scumreading JarJar have to do with Celestial being the only one voting for him?

I see that you said you were willing to shenanigan onto Shining or JarJar before the blue claim, but only them. So the blue claim wasn't enough to get you to go for either of your other scumreads, who both had votes? Shining especially would have been a good choice at the time.

On January 07 2015 01:51 Tubesock wrote:


Ah, I see our differences. I tend to disregard to some extent a person's first few posts. You appear to keep an even weighting on all of them. I do want to point out that you had 3-4 posts that were just about rsoultin's gender, or SC2 mafia or whatever. If I said them I think you would have scummed me even worse. Yet, I really only had the 1 post you didn't like, and it still pertained to the current game. But anyway, I do think you're town even if we don't agree on your town reads so much although we do agree on the scums.

On January 09 2015 10:52 -Celestial- wrote:
Oh and I'm sorry I can't answer more questions tonight. Thing is I've been actively writing and getting bombarded with stuff for something like six hours straight now by a bunch of people (I started addressing stuff at like quarter to 8 or something, its ten to two in the morning right now and I've only moved for a twenty minute break to get food). I'm exhausted and my mind is totally fatigued. I badly need a rest.

I'll try to make sure I've not missed any by checking over tomorrow. Goodnight.

On January 09 2015 22:32 Half the Sky wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

Tubesock is a null - generally speaking, being tunnelled on someone is considered non-alignment indicative. His posts on the NKs was thought out however flawed it was though from what I could tell of the filter, I looked at the exchange between Tube and Celestial however, and Celestial had explained twice over why JJB was looking better in his eyes, where Tube had expected him to still make a case on JJB, even after that. So that tells me he's not reading or selectively reading.
+ Show Spoiler +

I was convinced by jarjar until I saw his post-flip analysis which comes across as a lot more genuine as an attempt to help out town. I'm still highly suspicious of rsoultin's motives, with the fact that she didn't remove that WW vote sitting pretty on top of the pile of reasons for my suspicion, despite the explanation.

I've got to eat right now but if you want me to I can run through my full thoughts on jarjar from the past couple of days when I get back if you like.

On January 09 2015 23:09 Half the Sky wrote:
Tubesock, the quotes in question. You can also go to page 4 of his filter.







Did he say explicitly? No. But that was the impression I got from reading his quotes.

On January 09 2015 17:03 jarjarbinks wrote:
OK quick rundown of the why on this post. I'm worried I might miss the EOD because of work because its been pretty busy as of late xD Christmas is definitely over! Chances me missing it ARE slim though.

I'm giving my top three lynch targets. They are the same as before. I'm attaching percentages to them. This is % chance they are mafia in my book. 27% (3/10 +/- 3%) is the lowest % you can have. I'm attaching mini-normal % increases based on how the dead voted and giving myself a 3% buffer for on my opinions of their play so far.

1. LS- 46%. 14% increase based on dead votes and a 2% increase based on today's play and the day 1 claim. I still sympathize with LS, but that's why I'm using equations over my feelings. One of the cases I saw with LS in also had everyone on LS's balls for almost the whole game (at least based off votes).

2. Shining- 39%. 9% increase based on dead votes. 0% on my opinions of the 2 days play.

3. Tube Sock- 38%. 11% increase based on dead votes. 3% decrease based on play. The early waffle vote on tube hurt tube a lot. I also wonder if waffle wasn't under pressure, if he would have kept the tube vote. But I have really liked tube's play today. I liked his theory, however flawed it was.

My estimate is very flawed. I only have 2 past cases of voting history to go on as of now. I also haven't really attributed any points towards good voting. But it's all I've got, besides my opinions.

If I make it back before the votes, count on me switching my vote from LS to a bandwagon I agree with IF my vote is alone AND I can use my vote to lynch someone on this list. I'm providing my %'s of everyone else if you are curious, not explaining them though because its 3 in the morning. Hope this helps understand my thoughts.

4. Gumdrop 33%
5. Silverarte 33%
6. Celestial 32%
7. Rsoultin 31%
8. Exo 30%
9. HTS 28%

On January 10 2015 01:13 -Celestial- wrote:
Also nice to note that this is the SECOND blue train that a bunch of people have been on.

rsoultin noteworthy for being the one who started the first and laid some groundwork for this one right after citing Shining as a top scumread on both occassions. And Silver for diving in here, dropping the vote on each occassion, and then largely disappearing again.

On January 10 2015 01:15 -Celestial- wrote:
I'm fed up of this anyway. Vote me or don't, I'm tired of this game. If I survive the day I'll at least make sure to be on for the Night so I can try to save somebody, I'm not going to just throw the game away outright, but I'm fed up of trying to explain to people my reads only to have them go "nooo" and then misquote stuff at me.

On January 10 2015 01:17 -Celestial- wrote:


No, I didn't outright say that. But it still makes me uncomfortable, especially given jarjar's story outlining how she might have played D1 (providing excuses for not being around EoD whilst actually being around to see the blue claim).

On January 10 2015 01:41 LightningStrike wrote:
ExO have to be scum he called me and Celestial scum when we were town with Celestial being a Uncounterclaimed Doctor and never found scum because he is scum and doesn't want to call out his teammates.

On January 10 2015 01:49 LightningStrike wrote:

He only been scum reading town why else why would he go after me and Celestial?

On January 10 2015 01:51 LightningStrike wrote:

Let me ask what is track record so far on finding scum? I found 0 because I know I'm town and Celestial is a Uncounterclaimed Doctor. Scum likes to go for easy mislynches and me and Celestial are unfortunatly easy mislynches.

On January 10 2015 01:53 LightningStrike wrote:

He far better than you in terms of scummiest of scum becasue he bothering to make cases which is seen townie but he using to get rid of townies though that my issue with him. Step it up in memory of me this game and we call it even since I led your mislynch and you leading mine.

On January 10 2015 01:56 LightningStrike wrote:

I made the case on you before FecalFeast got on it.

On January 10 2015 16:22 Half the Sky wrote:
Back in thread after a great night.

That said, I'm absolutely horrified at this lynch.

Rasputin, to answer your question regarding LS, you are correct in a sense that no he doesn't have developed reads but that's when you ask questions and/or make statements on reads. And that's where I felt I was running into problems, but I gave him the BOTD through D1 until the blue issue and the mention that he was tunnelled. Today I asked him about the blue issue and this is what he said:



I saw that and I'd be thinking just the opposite especially with more experience.

Still, I read his case and asked questions, but when I saw he was talking about ExO switching to WW with no explanation, I checked the votes and ExO's filter and that clearly wasn't true. LS even said in his second comment that it was in Exo's filter, and doing that and coming up with a different result, it was another red flag to me.

On January 10 2015 16:27 Tubesock wrote:


Horrified at what lynch? The LightningStrike one? Or you mean the ExO one?

On January 10 2015 16:41 Half the Sky wrote:


If you're in MYLO/LYLO you should go for whoever you are most sure of to be scum, why take a shot at someone you aren't as sure of? That's the risk right there.

The medic gains information every night through their saves, so faced with a decision, scum should be killing him particularly getting closer to lylo. I mentioned before that they have the most hard info through their actions.

Regardless, Celestial had good reason to be scumread pre-claim.

On January 10 2015 16:45 Tubesock wrote:


Ok cool. I'm not going to waste any more thought about this.

On January 09 2015 08:03 ExO_ wrote:


It did to a degree.Let me ask you another question. Trfel said he didn't like any of the lynches. Having reread his filter a couple times, I found something to be odd. Before the it became apparent that WW or LS or Shining was likely to die, there was only one person whoose opening post he specifically mentions as being off. He never got to really expand on it, but can you guess who it is?

On January 11 2015 06:36 rsoultin wrote:
Lol, I'm less certain about Celestial than I was. I want to call him scum so bad, because I think his town play was crap if he was town...sorry, I should probably be nicer about it, but, eh...I do think he actually breadcrumbed (advertently or inadvertently) his role to some extent if he was doctor.

For instance, he was super concerned about being NKd, kept going on about it. The concern about bluehunting in the beginning I think was over the top, unless he was concerned because he had a blue role and so was paranoid about it. And then there's how his discussion of the NKs was so doctor focused. He kept going back to players who were likely to be doc saves being the explanation for why Trfel (not a likely doc save) was killed.

To me that seems that if he was scum at the very least his mind was on what the doctor was doing, or he was deliberately trying to breadcrumb. I think there's way too much doubt without a CC and the breadcrumbing to justify a Celestial lynch unless you're down to the last scum and are sold on everyone else being town.

On January 11 2015 06:44 rsoultin wrote:
I also disagree with you on that, Tube, about ExO. Scum or town can buddy up or cast doubt, and he never followed through on that post (that I recall).

The follow-through from ExO is missing for scum-hunting, I think. You see HTS doing it. Asking questions. Reevaluating the answers. ExO seems to just throw it out there.

I encourage you to read his filter. It seems very scattershot to me, especially on Day 1.

I also don't like at all that he keeps on about you and him being the "Celestial push". No offense, but the majority of his argument were the things I already said looked scummy about Celestial's EoD play. And they did. However he conveniently forgets where he got those points from?

On January 11 2015 07:07 rsoultin wrote:
I just don't know how you could arrive at any different answer, is all. I'm not saying you're not critically thinking. Just not sure that ExO was doing anything but bringing up another point on Celestial, and really not seeing how that post was alignment indicative at all.

On January 11 2015 07:19 rsoultin wrote:


This one wasn't it?

On January 11 2015 09:40 -Celestial- wrote:
Or at least that's how I read her posts.

On January 11 2015 09:01 ExO_ wrote:


I was the first to bring up Celestial rsoultin. Tube didn't start on him until after I did. Are you lying, or have you just not read the thread?