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-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-01-03 09:36:58
January 03 2015 09:36 GMT
#136
If you don't get that final confirm and thus need a replacement and assuming you're not starting until Sunday then I'd be up for playing. I've played this with a group before as a warmup exercise for theatre rehearsals but never online. I didn't want to sign up earlier because I'm on the last few days of finishing my thesis but since I need to submit on Monday I should be free Sunday night because it'll have to be printed by then (I'm binding it Monday morning and handing it in late morning...yes its a stupidly tight schedule >_>).

So...
/in
If you need a replacement for that 1 post guy that's missing.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 03 2015 16:30 GMT
#138
Full on 150-200 pages, 100-200 references doctoral thesis on the past four years of work.

Which I've had about a month and a half to work on properly exclusively due to having to be in the lab right up until the last minute, and suffered a bereavement part way through that messed me up a bit but I couldn't get an extension for. Yeah...fun. >_>
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 04 2015 18:50 GMT
#153
On January 04 2015 09:13 Half the Sky wrote:
Celestial, welcome, and glad to see another LDer frequent this area. I remember you from the Dota QQ thread hehe. There's a few others here too, but they don't play too often.
Best of luck with your thesis, you deserve the finish line after so much hard work. Hopefully a good job/position somewhere nice afterwards.


Well I've not been around there much because...well...thesis. But now that its done and printed (I hand it in tomorrow) I'm sure I'll be around more to rage about teammates.

And thanks.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-01-05 14:24:14
January 05 2015 14:22 GMT
#199
Hey guys. Trying to get my head around the theme because I've never actually watched 24, though I know about it. I know, I know, sorry.

Got my thesis submitted this morning, yay! So now I have time to actually do stuff. Although I'm not going to spend ALL my time in here because frankly I had no Christmas or New Year and my Birthday is next Monday so...yeah I have to make up for that. Going to watch all of Breaking Bad and Puella Magi Madoka Magica. :D But I'll still do whatever I can to help with the scumhunting in between trying to relax.


Anyway, as I understand it we need to decide on a lynch for Wednesday night, right? According to the counter anyway. Going to be tricky because lots of new players but of those few who HAVE played before...well actually I've been watching some of the recent mafia games over the holiday before I even signed up so I recognise some names. Hope that helps with my reading.



I'm not really familiar with most of the people here I've got some initial thoughts on other people's posts so far. I've read it all and there's just enough to make comments on everyone at this early point:

The Shining made some good points on both HtS and rsoultin. Not a lot to go on but I like his thinking and comments on both of them, its logical and nicely detailed. I'd tentatively start learning towards town on this guy based on that.

Half the Sky posted some fluff and moved onto questioning a couple of people in the last couple of posts. Some people posted some good things about scum reads but Trfel's point that she opened the other game exactly the same way (where she was town) has a lot of merit, I watched some of that game myself actually before signing up here and found her really hard to get a read on early. So for now I'm just saying neutral.

rsoultin running around poking people with accusations. Little bit too quick about it and jumping from person to person very fast it seems. I'm not sure whether to read that as a genuine scumhunt attempt or bluehunting. And very, very quick to judge HtS like he's trying to find a reason to hang someone up as a nice big lynch target right away. Neutral leaning towards scum, I'm somewhat suspicious but I'm not sure if that's my own feeling or influenced by comments from other people so it'd be unfair to go all of the way and say scum. Maybe he's just really enthusiastic?

jarjarbinks hasn't posted much to go on at all. Don't know whether that's because of the claimed computer problems or because he's trying to stay unnoticed though so its somewhat unfair to read at this early point. Though he IS making a lot of inactivity accusations which doesn't look good.

Trfel made a good initial impressions post with a good observation about HtS. Neutral. I want to almost say "leaning away from scum but not leaning town" here from that first post because its how I feel even thought it makes no sense.

Gumdrop one post. Neutral because judging based on one short post, as for jarjarbinks, is unfair at this point.

Silverarte immediately jumped by rsoultin for lack of clarity after her first post commenting on his reading on all his jumping about. This very much makes me feel they're not teamed up as otherwise they'd not want to draw attention like that. My initial feeling is that either one of them is scum or neither is. Though that could change with more posts.

TheWarWaffle gave an analysis on HtS that seems earnest. On the other hand Trfel pointed out that HtS opened exactly similarly to last time when she was town; and given that WW made such a big deal of the quality of his reads it seems a bit strange that he'd either miss such an obvious source of information. So either WW is trying to make an earnest analysis as town and isn't aware of HtS' past game (which would seem strange given his apparent confidence), or he's scum and might be trying to get a lynch train going against HtS. Possibly with rsoultin possibly just taking advantage of his early comments, I don't know. Hard read to make.

ExO_ made good points about rsoultin and jarjarbinks and was good to call out WarWaffle on his claims of tells but not actually saying anything. Although he hasn't posted a lot I like what I've seen. Probably my strongest townread.

LightningStrike just posted fluff and comments on other people's posts so far. Not really sure what to make of that honestly.

Tubesock is coming across as really scummy from those first few posts. He comments about how he likes rsoultin's finger pointing and comments on jarjar positively as well despite the fact the guy has said little. His only other comments are a question about guides, a comment about how we definitely need to lynch D1 and how "even a mislynch gets a lot of information" and playing down his D1 read ability in order to remain under the radar. It seems a mix of sidetracking, contributing for the sake of looking like contributing, and making excuses for not really getting involved.


So yeah...in short I'd say that my strongest townread so far is probably ExO_ and my strongest scumread would be Tubesock. Though with not much to go on so far that could all change. Convince me! :D

Day 1 is hard.


Edit: LS posted as I was writing this. Last post was pretty good in my opinion, some credit there. Still don't want to make a call on him though. Neutral for now.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 05 2015 14:25 GMT
#200
And I just realised I've been a total dumbass and edited that post to add in the goddamn edit. *facepalm* I'm sorry, that was just instinct. I've never posted this forum before.

Crap...
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 05 2015 14:33 GMT
#205
There we go. Fair cop. That was extremely silly of me. X-D

Won't make that mistake twice.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 05 2015 14:59 GMT
#207
The Shining is "she" oops? Sorry from my long post there. >_>
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 05 2015 15:01 GMT
#208
Er and in my huge post I meant "activity excuses" not "accusations" for jarjar.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 05 2015 15:11 GMT
#210
@LS: When I get a chance I'll probably check out those who have played in recent games. Like I mentioned earlier I actually followed some games over the holiday so I know some of the names but I'm a bit fuzzy what happened exactly what with the thesis and everything.

I'm sure I'll get a better read on you when I've checked over your previous games to compare openings. For what its worth you're in the same boat as Trfel with me as "leaning away from scum but not leaning town". Doesn't really make sense as a thing but there it is. Either way to me you're a "do not D1 lynch".
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 05 2015 16:32 GMT
#220
On January 06 2015 00:18 Half the Sky wrote:
Celestial I have a question for you regarding your read on Rasputin. Since Shining also commented on bluehunting, was there something in the content that jumped at you or was it just his manner of scumhunting that indicated bluehunting?

Having played with Rasputin before, and taking on a proper D1 meta read, particularly from Carol, my impression was that he will ask questions if something sounds weird, if I recall right, he threw around many posts at people as he criticised circular reasoning and lack of explanations (which happened loads in that game), but didn't go as far to read scum let alone vote people for poor reasoning in of itself.


Well I can't metaread anyone until I go back over the posts from other games so I'm sure you and others know more than me on his past tendencies. It was the manner really, not a specific post. The jumping about and the nature of the questions themselves said to me that he wasn't looking for particularly deep alignment reads on anyone but was just looking for some kind of tell of anything at all.

My logic is something like this: there seemed to be a lack of interest in actually identifying what someone is but more looking for anything that might indicate someone is different from the rest. A tell that just indicates that someone is a little bit different. But that could mean either mafia or a blue and you can't know which without working out a more detailed read. Who would just want to know if someone is "different"? Well, the mafia of course, because they KNOW they're scum, so anyone who is different from the rest and not one of them is a blue. So by jumping about any tells found are likely to be indicative of blues, since they already know the mafia. A VT or blue wouldn't necessarily know if certain tells were because of scum or a fellow blue; which means their hunting would feel different to this.

I don't know if I explained myself well enough there but that's how I reasoned it. Its not strong enough to read him as mafia, but it came across as a bit scummy to me. Of course that could just be the way he plays, like I said I don't know people well enough right now to metaread so if you have a different position based on that I can't really contest it.



On January 06 2015 00:56 ExO_ wrote:
I think its important to remember this isnt a purely newbie game. There are coaches, and they are going to have an effect on the posts here. And I think the above post is coached to a certain degree, or celestial is not as new as he seems. I only count 2 town reads in his post, and the rest are either neutral or scum reads.

At first I thought this was scummy, but the more I think about it the more im not entirely sure. Mafia love to call town as town, and a strong townread on me is an easy move for a mafia.

For his first real post into the thread though, its quite a large post. And quite calculated. Makes me uneasy.



I'm actually quite honoured that you think I'm not as new as I seem. Genuinely my first game of Mafia on a forum. I've played it in groups at theatre rehearsals before today though and a little bit in that SC2 arcade mod.

If you're fishing why it was so large and detailed, I handed in my thesis this morning and this is the first chance I've been completely free and gotten to actually do something fun without that weight over me for...well, years now. So I got a little bit carried away. I don't have any mafia examples because this is my first game, but my tendency to get carried away with large posts can be seen in several examples across here, LiquidDota and LiquidHearth when I really get into a topic.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 05 2015 17:23 GMT
#224
On January 06 2015 02:18 LightningStrike wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 06 2015 01:37 ExO_ wrote:
On January 05 2015 10:51 rsoultin wrote:
On January 05 2015 10:44 The Shining wrote:
On one hand, I can see why Soultin thought it a bit hasty for HTS to jump into the us vs scum mentality. Not knowing HTS from a hole in the wall also helps to make it a bit more odd for me that she'd jump in and be willing to be associated as an "us" with LS, unless she is in fact VT and believes LS is, too.

On the other hand, Soultin has already let it go and is now moved on to Silver. How am I to know you're not just going to question every one of us in the hopes of a slip or something that gives away a role?


Well, I am going to question things when they're not clear or seem out-of-place. Not sure how else to scumhunt cause I don't have a handy dandy scum divining rod. If you're implying that I'm bluehunting, though, not sure what you're basing that comment on apart from paranoia.

Care to enlighten us?


Rsoultin needs to post more, but I agree with this exchange in particular. Though I think her initial scum hunting was unlikely to produce anything, its better than not doing anything in the end. Shining looks like scummy with his post and right now looks like a good vig target to me (assuming we have a vig).

However her activity has severly dropped off after this exchange. Id really like to see more posts from her. leaning town for now

Rsoultin is a guy lol..... Also -Celestial- I did play the SC2 Mafia on Arcade mode too and I also play Town of Salem! Unfortunately TL Mafia and Fourm Mafia in general is quite different then Town of Salem and SC2 Mafia where it's not reliant on role claiming so early and also much faster Days and Nights.


SC2 mafia is utterly nuts sometimes. It so fast and everyone is so quick to point fingers. One game of that I played just ripped itself apart in about three minutes with the entire mafia team surviving. Its a fun play from time to time though if you can get a game of it going (not as many people playing nowadays as I remember from when I played a couple years ago).
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 05 2015 17:34 GMT
#228
On January 06 2015 02:30 LightningStrike wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 06 2015 02:23 -Celestial- wrote:
On January 06 2015 02:18 LightningStrike wrote:
On January 06 2015 01:37 ExO_ wrote:
On January 05 2015 10:51 rsoultin wrote:
On January 05 2015 10:44 The Shining wrote:
On one hand, I can see why Soultin thought it a bit hasty for HTS to jump into the us vs scum mentality. Not knowing HTS from a hole in the wall also helps to make it a bit more odd for me that she'd jump in and be willing to be associated as an "us" with LS, unless she is in fact VT and believes LS is, too.

On the other hand, Soultin has already let it go and is now moved on to Silver. How am I to know you're not just going to question every one of us in the hopes of a slip or something that gives away a role?


Well, I am going to question things when they're not clear or seem out-of-place. Not sure how else to scumhunt cause I don't have a handy dandy scum divining rod. If you're implying that I'm bluehunting, though, not sure what you're basing that comment on apart from paranoia.

Care to enlighten us?


Rsoultin needs to post more, but I agree with this exchange in particular. Though I think her initial scum hunting was unlikely to produce anything, its better than not doing anything in the end. Shining looks like scummy with his post and right now looks like a good vig target to me (assuming we have a vig).

However her activity has severly dropped off after this exchange. Id really like to see more posts from her. leaning town for now

Rsoultin is a guy lol..... Also -Celestial- I did play the SC2 Mafia on Arcade mode too and I also play Town of Salem! Unfortunately TL Mafia and Fourm Mafia in general is quite different then Town of Salem and SC2 Mafia where it's not reliant on role claiming so early and also much faster Days and Nights.


SC2 mafia is utterly nuts sometimes. It so fast and everyone is so quick to point fingers. One game of that I played just ripped itself apart in about three minutes with the entire mafia team surviving. Its a fun play from time to time though if you can get a game of it going (not as many people playing nowadays as I remember from when I played a couple years ago).

Everyone basically moved to Town of Salem from SC2 Mafia as far as I know. It just a better version of the game.


Nice. I'll take a look, thanks for that.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 05 2015 21:00 GMT
#230
On January 06 2015 05:37 rsoultin wrote:
dont expect many posts from me during work hours, primarily. i dont have net access at work except on a lunch break and dont always choose to take them.

i am female. i just never correct ppl misreading me as a guy, especially since my gender is insignificant to these games xP

more importantly, i like the work you put in celeste, despite the read on me. exo seems okay so far this game...and i also find shining's drive by post interesting. im interested to see if he plans on following up. trfel is right about hts which is why i jumped; ill keep prodding if im not satisfied. not much to go off of yet...more thoughts or prods after work



Sorry about calling you "he" then, its just I've seen other people do it so I just went along with that. X-D

And thanks, its nothing personal of course. There's only so much up so far and I've not played other games with you (or anyone, but anyway), so I can't meta-read very well, so I'm just going with what I've seen here and how I feel it fits together.

Of course now if I get killed first night then I'm pretty sure I've been on the right lines with at least one of my suspicions about scum. It'll be very interesting to see if I actually survive it. Big if though; having thought about it I'm probably putting something of a target on my head for the scum by posting reads like that if I'm on the right lines anywhere.


Anyway, I'm not sure how to take this whole "drive by" posting thing with The Shining to be honest that you're discussing. I liked his first post which seemed townie so my first instinct was to lean him towards town (as I mentioned earlier) but the longer it goes as his ONLY post makes me start to doubt my first impressions there. Sort of like a "here's a obligatory post that contains some stuff that will make you think I'm town, now please forget about me". I don't know, kinda comes down to the "convince me" thing again. I'd need to see something a lot more scummy to call as a lynch target though.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 05 2015 21:31 GMT
#232
On January 06 2015 06:10 LightningStrike wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 06 2015 05:37 rsoultin wrote:
dont expect many posts from me during work hours, primarily. i dont have net access at work except on a lunch break and dont always choose to take them.

i am female. i just never correct ppl misreading me as a guy, especially since my gender is insignificant to these games xP

more importantly, i like the work you put in celeste, despite the read on me. exo seems okay so far this game...and i also find shining's drive by post interesting. im interested to see if he plans on following up. trfel is right about hts which is why i jumped; ill keep prodding if im not satisfied. not much to go off of yet...more thoughts or prods after work

Oh god I so sorry calling you a guy for so long T_T
Also the drive by posting by Shining I think if Shining doesn't follow up on that then I could definitely see Shining as Scum but for now null I guess.


I'm finding it awkward because I dislike "inactivity" in and of itself as a scum lynch read. I mean if its all there is I guess its a possibility but it makes me very uncomfortable to condemn based on that alone. Although the whole "posting something useful then disappearing" makes it a bit more convincing than simple inactivity or minimal posting like jarjar or gumdrop.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 05 2015 23:34 GMT
#238
On January 06 2015 08:26 ExO_ wrote:
I'm home now and I think I have my first really solid scum read. But starting off with HTS:

I thought she had posted significantly more than she had. But what she has posted I've largely approved of. Her posts, to me, seem reasonable but she's not shying away from giving scum reads. She has been helpful without being rude, while being concise. I think she's town, and definitely not a day 1 lynch candidate.


However take a look at LS in these 2 quotes:

Show nested quote +
On January 05 2015 23:50 LightningStrike wrote:

+ Show Spoiler +
My new player reads I never played with before since you asked for them HTS

-Celestial-: Town since he gave a lot of good points on why his reads were they were the way they were although he did make a mistake on editing and hoping he not modkilled.


Gumdrop: I need some more posts to figure him out.


Jarjarbinks: Need more posts from him but he got some excuses for why he so little posts so far. I hope he feels better and can play like like his brother!


The Shining: Town for now since she asking some questions and looks like she trying to figure this game out but again I need more posts from him to confirm my thoughts of him being town.


Silverate: I need more posts from her to determine her alignment.


ExO_: Need more posts from because other than the nitpicking on your post there is nothing for me to look at


TheWarWaffle: Town he at least tried to break down the stuff in your post and explain in his mine what the stuff means and asking questions about it. I hope he post more so I can confirm my read on him!


Show nested quote +
On January 06 2015 00:34 LightningStrike wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

On January 06 2015 00:18 Half the Sky wrote:

LS, unless I am misreading your sentence, moderator situations are not alignment indicative, but that aside, Celestial looks good for the most part for the in-depth analysis. I am a little surprised though you mentioned you had nothing alignment indicative on any of the veterans.

Celestial I have a question for you regarding your read on Rasputin. Since Shining also commented on bluehunting, was there something in the content that jumped at you or was it just his manner of scumhunting that indicated bluehunting?

Having played with Rasputin before, and taking on a proper D1 meta read, particularly from Carol, my impression was that he will ask questions if something sounds weird, if I recall right, he threw around many posts at people as he criticised circular reasoning and lack of explanations (which happened loads in that game), but didn't go as far to read scum let alone vote people for poor reasoning in of itself.


I was just sharing my thoughts on his edit on his post and was hoping he not get modkilled lol.
Also on alignment of the vets I not played with you guys when you guys were scum but I do have a slight feeling you and Rsoultin are town again and thought of a funny situation where you tfrel and rsoultin are scum vs me in a dream. Also it's Day 1 and my reads on Day 1 are normally poor except on Metal Mini on Palmar and KSC on Carol of the Bells as scum but I wasn't confident in my scum read there. That just my thoughts for now.


The theme here, is "everybody's town". Not a single scum read here. He has a lot of posts, but when I read his filter I don't see scum hunting. I see him not ruffling feathers of anybody in particular. He's even got a nice little "my reads on day 1 are normally poor" excuse lined up all nice and pretty.

nope nope nope. I see scum

##Vote: LightningStrike



Actually your evidence here to me suggests that's a very strong call. The "everyone is town so be cool, hey" narrative really works. Much stronger than any of my current scum reads. I'm inclined to agree.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 05 2015 23:39 GMT
#240
@LS: I'm sure everyone would appreciate your comments. ExO's post there I find to be pretty damning to be honest.

I'll hold off on actually voting until tomorrow I think. Let some more people get their words in for me to try and get a better feel of it.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 06 2015 00:36 GMT
#244
On January 06 2015 09:25 jarjarbinks wrote:

Exo and Celestial: I think you are wrong about LS. She did have some scum reads. The first post that everyone has been overanalyzing is a typical first post (at least in my newbie mind). Using "we" at the beginning implies to me that she wanted people to post. It's kind of like a "Let's go" kind of deal. Actually the first whole page of stuff seemed like people who were just excited the game started.

I would expect more scumreads in the future, when there's much more to work with.

Lol Rsoultin. Everyone did think you were a guy! I thought it was just the other game!

Reading through all of this, I do see a lot of posts about how I need to defend my lack of posts. Right now I'm resisting the urge to come up some more excuses just so you guys can complain about them. I'll try to post more tonight.



Except LS's first post isn't really the issue here. Your focus on that appears to be trying to direct the discussion into an entirely erroneous direction.

In any case believe me, I feel kinda bad about agreeing with ExO on this to be honest because LS seems pretty nice what with chatting to me earlier in the thread and all that...but I guess that's the point ExO is making. Distracting people with niceness and town reads everywhere makes you seem nice, friendly and forgettable. Precisely what you want to be as a mafia.

The more I think about this the more convinced I'm getting honestly. It'll be very interesting to see what LS has to say about it.


And I don't think anyone is saying anything as aggressive as you need to "defend" your lack of posts. People have posted that you should post more and that you set yourself up for some really nice excuses to just lurk. You're coming across as paranoid here to be honest, as well as deflecting things off topic.

Getting a really strong scumread from this particular post of jarjar's to be honest.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 06 2015 00:44 GMT
#247
On January 06 2015 09:16 Half the Sky wrote:
Also Shining, I am not tunnelling you. There are multiple scum in this game. You were not my only scumread, and there are others that I've mentioned that need to step it up. I have certain criteria I use to scum hunt and when someone appears to meet that criteria I am going to point it out with an explanation or an example.


Out of interest what are your current scumreads in addition to Shining? And what about the recent read on LS?
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 06 2015 02:43 GMT
#266
On January 06 2015 11:08 rsoultin wrote:
Celeste...I don't think I'll be lynching you Day 1.


That's very gracious of you, I'm still suspicious of you though.


Personally I'm still liking the LS lynch. Its not pure policy and we lack strong scumreads because its the first day. Whilst I don't think the case against Shining is entirely without merit, especially with you pointing out the whole "blaming people who accuse me of scum" thing going on there but I feel the points against LS are stronger at this point. This may change after LS posts again but for the moment I think I'm staying in that particular camp for lynching. Again though...want to keep from actually voting until LS has had a chance to speak.


On January 06 2015 11:25 Tubesock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 06 2015 06:31 -Celestial- wrote:
On January 06 2015 06:10 LightningStrike wrote:
On January 06 2015 05:37 rsoultin wrote:
dont expect many posts from me during work hours, primarily. i dont have net access at work except on a lunch break and dont always choose to take them.

i am female. i just never correct ppl misreading me as a guy, especially since my gender is insignificant to these games xP

more importantly, i like the work you put in celeste, despite the read on me. exo seems okay so far this game...and i also find shining's drive by post interesting. im interested to see if he plans on following up. trfel is right about hts which is why i jumped; ill keep prodding if im not satisfied. not much to go off of yet...more thoughts or prods after work

Oh god I so sorry calling you a guy for so long T_T
Also the drive by posting by Shining I think if Shining doesn't follow up on that then I could definitely see Shining as Scum but for now null I guess.


I'm finding it awkward because I dislike "inactivity" in and of itself as a scum lynch read. I mean if its all there is I guess its a possibility but it makes me very uncomfortable to condemn based on that alone. Although the whole "posting something useful then disappearing" makes it a bit more convincing than simple inactivity or minimal posting like jarjar or gumdrop.


Celestial, can you reexplain this? Mainly the last sentence.


Basically The Shining posted some actual analysis as an early post, then didn't come back for ages when people started to question it:
On January 05 2015 10:44 The Shining wrote:
On one hand, I can see why Soultin thought it a bit hasty for HTS to jump into the us vs scum mentality. Not knowing HTS from a hole in the wall also helps to make it a bit more odd for me that she'd jump in and be willing to be associated as an "us" with LS, unless she is in fact VT and believes LS is, too.

On the other hand, Soultin has already let it go and is now moved on to Silver. How am I to know you're not just going to question every one of us in the hopes of a slip or something that gives away a role?


I don't view the content quite as scummy as rsoultin seems to think it is but the fact it was posted and then basically orphaned even with people questioning it made it stand out as a post that felt like "look, I'm doing analysis, I'm not scum, now please forget about me".

In contrast both jarjar and gumdrop had posted minimal content posts and then just not replied again.

I'm not a huge believer in "they're active therefore scum" as a rule...I mean for lack of anything else I could go with one but I wouldn't be happy about it exactly. However I find posting a fairly neutral analysis and then trying to be forgotten a lot more scummy than posting briefly to say "hi" and then just not posting again. To me the latter comes across as either just not having the time, taking the time away or even just not caring too much about the game. The former comes across as trying to hide.

In short: posting hardly anything and then disappearing indicates to me you're not scared, which is townie. Posting a bit of analysis without committing makes it look to me like you're trying to look as if you're contributing whilst hiding away from any actual risk. Which is scummy.

Is that better? I can try to clarify more if I'm still not explaining myself properly.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 06 2015 02:45 GMT
#267
EBWOP: "they're INACTIVE therefore scum"
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 06 2015 13:38 GMT
#320
On January 06 2015 13:16 Tubesock wrote:
I did like Celestial's last post. I was hoping he'd come back though and talk more.


Sorry, I had to sleep it was like 3am. Let me read the last couple of pages and I'll post my updated reads.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 06 2015 14:31 GMT
#322
Ok, yet another big assessment post. I've put them in order of type of read, townie through neutral to scum:

ExO_ still posting good analysis. Even though jumping from person to person the analysis is solid and seems to wait for an actual reason to post on someone else before doing it. I said town at the start and I'm still saying it now.

Half the Sky I'd say is probably town at this point. Posted some nice discussion and I really like her last post. Not posting masses but its hard to criticise that when the thread is moving so slowly.

Trfel has very little to go on but I'd probably say null leaning town. The little bit posted so far implies to me town but its a tiny, tiny amount to go off.

Gumdrop null slightly leaning town. Even less to go on than Trfel but the single analysis post so far was ok and was some decent effort, even if I drastically disagree with the analysis of ExO_ who I'm pretty much certain is town right now. The comments about not being sure what to post I somewhat sympathise with (although I'm evidently far more gabby X-D ).

Silverarte I just can't get a good reading on. Null. Only just started making any posts of real substance. I'd hesitate to call a D1 lynch here when there are better potential targets but one to keep an eye on.

Tubesock explicitly asked me for my read of him past couple of posts. Hi. *waves* Not reading as strongly scum anymore so I'm not sure what to do with him. Back to null I guess. Last couple of posts were good. I still severely dislike his opening but has been getting involved recently and although not posting masses the motivation I'm getting is somewhat townie, but playing his cards quite close to his chest. I like that he's trying to force people to say more so we have more to go on.

rsoultin I distrust somewhat but am more or less back to null now. Her early activity was very suspicious in my eyes which pushed torwards town but the more recent stuff like the assessment of The Shining was very convincing. A little more scummy activity would push me back towards scum though.

TheWarWaffle hasn't changed since my last assessment. Leaning scum very strongly for me now. I didn't like his last post, as I stated last time, and literally nothing posted since then. So the grand total of contribution here is accusing HtS on the basis of her opening...which was exactly the same as she opened in a previous game when she was town...and then disappearing. Really, really not looking good in my eyes.

The Shining started off null leaning town for me just because of limited amounts of information and the fact Shine was one of the few who posted some analysis, I didn't read too much into it until rsoultin pointed it out to be honest since it was just one post. Since rsoultin assessed that post I'm now leaning scum. The worst part for me is the whole "they read me as scum so I read THEM as scum" thing. It looks like just trying to deflect people's attention onto other people. Is also laying it on ExO_ who has been, all along, my strongest town read. Could definitely be convinced for a D2 lynch here.

jarjarbinks I've got a very strong feeling is scum based off the posts made. First couple were a bunch of nothing. Then comes in and posts what I assessed the other page as incredibly scummy to me. Next up is a piggyback read that just reinforces someone else's view. Only real thing of substance has been that most recent post to ask what people think about me and has made no real attempt to answer my analysis of the earlier post or indeed change approach at all. Isn't making an attempt to scumhunt, isn't really contributing beyond echoing other people. If jarjar is town its the scummiest acting townie I've seen in any of the games I've looked at.

LightningStrike is still my number one D1 lynch. Sorry. I still feel bad about it because <3 LS. But still...ExO_'s analysis there was pretty damning in my eyes and the last few pages, although they've been increasingly implicating The Shining as well, hasn't really convinced me that LS is town. The early stuff was scummy, saying nothing and dancing around a "be nice to everyone and forget about me" thing. When called out on it posted a big analysis post that said very little of substance and lacked firmness. Contributing analysis for the sake of contributing analysis whilst trying to keep most of the other players happy and looking in another direction. Making excuses about "my scum hunting is bad day 1" (doesn't mean you shouldn't try, even if its difficult) and is now starting towards the Shining bandwagon that rsoultin is starting on. Not that I think its wrong but frankly its very easy to put in a "maybe you're right" to set up to bus The Shining if it looks like that actually gets started. Scum. Still <3 though.



There we go. So...I guess for now...

##Vote: LightningStrike
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 06 2015 14:31 GMT
#323
EBWOP:

##Vote: LightningStrike
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 06 2015 14:33 GMT
#324
On January 06 2015 23:19 rsoultin wrote:
Okay. Parking my vote on the waffle or now. It took prodding to get him to post in the first place...after boldly proclaiming he was getting a ton out of people's wording without any follow-through as ExO pointed out...and then his post was on just one of HTS'. Since then (and that was early in the day) he's done diddly.


I tend to agree with this assessment to be honest. I had WW down as leaning scum right from his early attempt at analysis but its just gotten drastically worse since then.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 06 2015 14:35 GMT
#326
Oh, also I'd appreciate anyone's assessments of Silverarte. I really just cannot place her at all.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 06 2015 14:37 GMT
#329
If you want to provide some defence evidence then please do. I'm just really not liking the posting here to be honest.

Also the quality of metareads is something of an unknown quantity anyway. But I'm willing to take a look a little later I guess (busy right now, that last post took ages).
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 06 2015 16:43 GMT
#354
Ok I've taken the time myself to read over the evidence that LS presented and...actually its pretty convincing. Although I think meta reads, especially based on just one game, can easily be manipulated he IS playing this very similar to the way he has in the past and it IS from three separate games so...yeah well done there.

I can't in good faith vote LS anymore. His playstyle is just too consistent between townie games there and it has severely shaken my confidence on it. I don't really know playstyles very well of course but those links were fairly convincing. Of course LS could be deliberately selecting evidence but it doesn't feel like that, it feels more like a genuine attempt at convincing. Not a D1 lynch for me anymore.


I'm going to take a chance and remove my vote from there and put it on someone else. Its between WW, Shining and jarjar for me, as per my reads earlier. I agree with Tube, WW isn't the best candidate. His opening post was weak and he's said nothing since then but that isn't enough for me to lynch him at this early stage. I'd like to see more from Shining before I could put a vote down there. So I guess I'm going with jarjar for now since I have to vote for SOMEONE and frankly I really don't like his posting at all, it looks really scummy; was also the second highest read on my list so...

##Unvote

##Vote: jarjarbinks




On January 07 2015 01:18 Tubesock wrote:
-Celestial-

Why is Rsoultin more scummy than Gumdrops, Trfel, Silver, and me? I get why you town ExO so hard, and HTS but not the next 3 on your list?


I think I'm still somewhat tainted by rsoultin's original impression on me. I really, really didn't like what appeared to be bluehunting (the reasoning for which I posted a little while back, I can quote it if you like). Though she has improved somewhat since that I'm still wary.

Gumdrops I've just flat out not seen enough from to make much of a judgement call. Same with Trfel. But both of them posted something that appeared to be reasonably thought out so slight leanings towards town. Trfel also stated in advance he wouldn't be around for a bit and Gumdrops just seems awkward about posting. I can't condemn either of them to scum for that.

Silver I have literally no idea about, as I posted. I'd appreciate anyone else's thoughts because to me it just appears to be a mix.

You didn't start great which is why I leaned you towards scum, but I didn't find your opening to be as scummy as rsoultins was and you've both improved in my eyes to the point where you're both back to neutral. But since rsoultin started off with slightly more damning posts you're slightly more in the townie direction than she is.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 06 2015 16:44 GMT
#355
On January 07 2015 01:35 LightningStrike wrote:
-Celestial- I noticed you ninja'd voting for JarJar can you explain why you voting for him? I just wondering that's all.



I changed my vote as I was writing that last post so I wouldn't forget to change it. Please read.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 06 2015 16:46 GMT
#356
EBWOP: The reason it wasn't simultaneous posting is because I saw Tubesock's question as I was about to post and thought I'd just add my reply into that one.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 06 2015 16:56 GMT
#360
On January 07 2015 01:51 Tubesock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 07 2015 01:43 -Celestial- wrote:+ Show Spoiler +

Ok I've taken the time myself to read over the evidence that LS presented and...actually its pretty convincing. Although I think meta reads, especially based on just one game, can easily be manipulated he IS playing this very similar to the way he has in the past and it IS from three separate games so...yeah well done there.

I can't in good faith vote LS anymore. His playstyle is just too consistent between townie games there and it has severely shaken my confidence on it. I don't really know playstyles very well of course but those links were fairly convincing. Of course LS could be deliberately selecting evidence but it doesn't feel like that, it feels more like a genuine attempt at convincing. Not a D1 lynch for me anymore.


I'm going to take a chance and remove my vote from there and put it on someone else. Its between WW, Shining and jarjar for me, as per my reads earlier. I agree with Tube, WW isn't the best candidate. His opening post was weak and he's said nothing since then but that isn't enough for me to lynch him at this early stage. I'd like to see more from Shining before I could put a vote down there. So I guess I'm going with jarjar for now since I have to vote for SOMEONE and frankly I really don't like his posting at all, it looks really scummy; was also the second highest read on my list so...

##Unvote

##Vote: jarjarbinks




On January 07 2015 01:18 Tubesock wrote:
-Celestial-

Why is Rsoultin more scummy than Gumdrops, Trfel, Silver, and me? I get why you town ExO so hard, and HTS but not the next 3 on your list?


I think I'm still somewhat tainted by rsoultin's original impression on me. I really, really didn't like what appeared to be bluehunting (the reasoning for which I posted a little while back, I can quote it if you like). Though she has improved somewhat since that I'm still wary.

Gumdrops I've just flat out not seen enough from to make much of a judgement call. Same with Trfel. But both of them posted something that appeared to be reasonably thought out so slight leanings towards town. Trfel also stated in advance he wouldn't be around for a bit and Gumdrops just seems awkward about posting. I can't condemn either of them to scum for that.

Silver I have literally no idea about, as I posted. I'd appreciate anyone else's thoughts because to me it just appears to be a mix.

You didn't start great which is why I leaned you towards scum, but I didn't find your opening to be as scummy as rsoultins was and you've both improved in my eyes to the point where you're both back to neutral. But since rsoultin started off with slightly more damning posts you're slightly more in the townie direction than she is.


Ah, I see our differences. I tend to disregard to some extent a person's first few posts. You appear to keep an even weighting on all of them. I do want to point out that you had 3-4 posts that were just about rsoultin's gender, or SC2 mafia or whatever. If I said them I think you would have scummed me even worse. Yet, I really only had the 1 post you didn't like, and it still pertained to the current game. But anyway, I do think you're town even if we don't agree on your town reads so much although we do agree on the scums.


You make a fair point; but in defence of my reads I'm trying to disregard anything that doesn't actually pertain to the game itself (so off topic stuff I don't really look at unless its ALL there is). In your case I posted earlier why I didn't like your opening post and then you disappeared kinda so I didn't have a lot to go on and at that very early point it was very suspicious to me.

Since then, of course, you've posted a lot more on-topic stuff which has helped a lot.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 06 2015 16:58 GMT
#361
On January 07 2015 01:44 -Celestial- wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 07 2015 01:35 LightningStrike wrote:
-Celestial- I noticed you ninja'd voting for JarJar can you explain why you voting for him? I just wondering that's all.



I changed my vote as I was writing that last post so I wouldn't forget to change it. Please read.


EBWOP:
Er...by that I mean "Please read above for my reasoning" not "Please learn to read, fool".

Sorry, I didn't realise it could be interpreted that way until I looked just now. X-D
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 06 2015 17:20 GMT
#372
On January 07 2015 02:14 Tubesock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 07 2015 02:12 LightningStrike wrote:
On January 07 2015 02:04 Tubesock wrote:
On January 07 2015 01:56 -Celestial- wrote:
On January 07 2015 01:51 Tubesock wrote:
On January 07 2015 01:43 -Celestial- wrote:+ Show Spoiler +

Ok I've taken the time myself to read over the evidence that LS presented and...actually its pretty convincing. Although I think meta reads, especially based on just one game, can easily be manipulated he IS playing this very similar to the way he has in the past and it IS from three separate games so...yeah well done there.

I can't in good faith vote LS anymore. His playstyle is just too consistent between townie games there and it has severely shaken my confidence on it. I don't really know playstyles very well of course but those links were fairly convincing. Of course LS could be deliberately selecting evidence but it doesn't feel like that, it feels more like a genuine attempt at convincing. Not a D1 lynch for me anymore.


I'm going to take a chance and remove my vote from there and put it on someone else. Its between WW, Shining and jarjar for me, as per my reads earlier. I agree with Tube, WW isn't the best candidate. His opening post was weak and he's said nothing since then but that isn't enough for me to lynch him at this early stage. I'd like to see more from Shining before I could put a vote down there. So I guess I'm going with jarjar for now since I have to vote for SOMEONE and frankly I really don't like his posting at all, it looks really scummy; was also the second highest read on my list so...

##Unvote

##Vote: jarjarbinks




On January 07 2015 01:18 Tubesock wrote:
-Celestial-

Why is Rsoultin more scummy than Gumdrops, Trfel, Silver, and me? I get why you town ExO so hard, and HTS but not the next 3 on your list?


I think I'm still somewhat tainted by rsoultin's original impression on me. I really, really didn't like what appeared to be bluehunting (the reasoning for which I posted a little while back, I can quote it if you like). Though she has improved somewhat since that I'm still wary.

Gumdrops I've just flat out not seen enough from to make much of a judgement call. Same with Trfel. But both of them posted something that appeared to be reasonably thought out so slight leanings towards town. Trfel also stated in advance he wouldn't be around for a bit and Gumdrops just seems awkward about posting. I can't condemn either of them to scum for that.

Silver I have literally no idea about, as I posted. I'd appreciate anyone else's thoughts because to me it just appears to be a mix.

You didn't start great which is why I leaned you towards scum, but I didn't find your opening to be as scummy as rsoultins was and you've both improved in my eyes to the point where you're both back to neutral. But since rsoultin started off with slightly more damning posts you're slightly more in the townie direction than she is.


Ah, I see our differences. I tend to disregard to some extent a person's first few posts. You appear to keep an even weighting on all of them. I do want to point out that you had 3-4 posts that were just about rsoultin's gender, or SC2 mafia or whatever. If I said them I think you would have scummed me even worse. Yet, I really only had the 1 post you didn't like, and it still pertained to the current game. But anyway, I do think you're town even if we don't agree on your town reads so much although we do agree on the scums.


You make a fair point; but in defence of my reads I'm trying to disregard anything that doesn't actually pertain to the game itself (so off topic stuff I don't really look at unless its ALL there is). In your case I posted earlier why I didn't like your opening post and then you disappeared kinda so I didn't have a lot to go on and at that very early point it was very suspicious to me.

Since then, of course, you've posted a lot more on-topic stuff which has helped a lot.


This is another area where we differ. I think the off topic stuff is scummy.

On January 07 2015 01:55 Half the Sky wrote:
On January 07 2015 01:43 -Celestial- wrote:
Silver I have literally no idea about, as I posted. I'd appreciate anyone else's thoughts because to me it just appears to be a mix.


I don't understand a couple of her reads, her progression on Waffle from a substantive part (the lurking is obvious), and I don't understand why she's scumreading Rasputin or why she isn't answering Rasputin's question, not from what I can tell anyhow.

I don't know if it's because she's new or if she has something to hide.


I'm curious how she is going to vote and what reasons she cites (assuming she doesn't ninja).

She didn't ninja vote she posted why she voting for WarWaffle earlier on Page 17 I think the page number was you could look through her filter by clicking a link to her filter at the OP.
Also to be fair about -Celestial-'s off topic stuff someone said he looked like he played a lot of mafia so he responded that he played SC2 Mafia and I kind of brought it off topic to him so my fault there.


I said, I want to know what she is GOING to vote.

My point about -Celestial- is I think it's hypocritical to scum me for 1 post where I talk about policy or whatever and then he has 3 or 4 which have nothing to do with the game. I refuse to believe I wouldn't be scummed for that shit, but it's ok for him and the ones he was talking to. I already said I town read him so far, so clearly that means I'm not placing much weight on it in my read of him.


Ah, now I see where the thing is coming from. I wasn't scumming you for just the policy comment. I was scumming you for that AND this:
Looks like everyone is already gone asleep.

I like that rsoultin is already building cases.

I think JarJar is pretty funny. Maybe case building also runs in the family?


To me at that point rsoultin looked to me like she was bluehunting. And jarjar had solely posted a post saying "I AM TOWN" several times, with some excuses about why he wasn't going to be about.

In short, you'd posted positive comments on two people I had already developed a negative view over. Then you'd made an empty comment about how we need to lynch but it shouldn't be a policy lynch. And then you disappeared entirely. It was very early in the game by that point though, so I just had to go with what I had to work with but you hadn't left me with a good first impression.

Since then you've done a lot better. Hence my change in read.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 06 2015 17:31 GMT
#374
On January 07 2015 02:24 Tubesock wrote:
I'm not sure. The WarWaffle wagon started from what I think is a pressure vote. I'm undecided if she's just piling on the most popular wagon early or not. She did say she would come back before the lynch, and I inferred she would reevaluate and go from there.

warwaffle is a really safe vote for her if she's scum.


Pretty sure it was a pressure vote by rsoultin wasn't it? Because of WW's claim that he had loads of stuff and then just going silent?

Everyone seems to be running away with it for some reason and I just don't know why to be honest. I don't think WW is in the clear but I really don't think its our best lynch either.


I agree with the assessment that its a safe vote if she's scum. But in and of itself I don't think it says she's scum.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 06 2015 17:35 GMT
#377
Yeah its fair enough. I just wanted to clarify it wasn't entirely because of off topic leading, it was that combined with my impressions of other people you mentioned.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 06 2015 19:50 GMT
#400
On January 07 2015 04:28 Tubesock wrote:
HTS, I know you're waiting on some responses to your questions from others, but do you have a D1 lynch list?

I'm starting to get worried that with such little activity, and so many who still need to vote, that people are going to be doing bullshit shenanies at EoD.

Do you have lynch targets outside of Shining, JarJar, and Warwaffle?


I don't think so. I think that's basically the list at this point. Personally I think its a pretty reasonable list for the stage we're at too.


@ExO_: What are your thoughts on LS (and others) pointing out he's played exactly the same way when he's been town on several previous occasions? I've been somewhat persuaded by that enough to conclude that for now I don't think he's the best D1 lynch. I mean I'm still not won over to make him town, but ideally we're looking for a D1 mafia lynch and I don't think he's the one to guarantee it.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 06 2015 19:52 GMT
#402
On January 07 2015 04:49 Tubesock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 07 2015 04:31 ExO_ wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
Okay finished reading. some quick thoughts:

People seem to have the impression I was scum flipping. But I'm going to constantly be updating my thoughts as more information goes in. At the time I first questioned shining (I didn't even accuse him of being scum) there were not that many people in the thread. Since then however, shining has based his scum reads off OMGUS and even townread HTS right after scumreading her. So I think Shining has been scummy. JarJar finally posted a substantial post, which was my biggest problem with him to begin with: the fact that he was clearly reading the thread but posting complete garbage. However I don't really like his reads and then calling out 5 people as scum? It makes no sense....but not in a scummish way. JarJar gets a pass from me for today, for what I think is just bad/newbish town play. As a side note, I wanted the vigi shot on him at the time because he was relatively inactive, but unlike the other inactives he was clearly reading.

Moving on to LS however: I think my original reasoning on him still holds. He's still playing this "oh I can't accuse anybody game, I'm unsure about every scum read" game. He asks questions, but I don't think he's getting valuable information out of people. He's polite and friendly sure. The kinda guy you want to like. But mafia isn't about being liked. It's not about lynching the rude people. It's about finding and lynching the scum. I don't think LS cares about that, he cares about slipping by. I think he's going to try a fake blue-claim if he gets a lot of pressure on him.

There's my initial thoughts. There's a lot of stuff I need to look at more in depth, but after my catch-up read through I still think LS is our best lynch. Just talking a lot is not a good reason to let somebody slip by, and I highly disagree with the meta-(this is how he played town in his other game)-reads. We need to focus on this game here.


If people think there is a better case than LS, please present it to me again. Or if theres a reason I should not be voting him today that I've missed. Because so far I don't see it.

Totally unrelated to the game: Could somebody also please clarify who I should be calling "she". I've gotten confused in the thread, and it would bug me slightly if I'm getting it wrong.


I don't know the proper way to deal with claims. To me, LS's "I'll claim if I have to" is a fucking claim. And it really irritates me, along with the meta stuff. The only towny thing I get from him is that he appears to be unafraid to post, and answer questions (aside from the little bit of heat to make him claim threaten). So, we vote him, he's going to claim. Now we will all panic and shenany on some shitty target that isn't vetted much. That's a lot to go wrong.

I'd rather vote The Shining or jarjar.

JarJar isn't following through really. He show's up, and leaves while I'm still here waiting on a question I've asked 4 times. I'm his #2 scum and his ideal scum play so why isn't he attacking me? I'm here to dance. I'll even wear a dress and you can call me pretty, but he just leaves.

Warwaffle is the leading wagon at the moment I think. While it is for sure a pressure/policy vote we have to lynch him if he doesn't show up right?


Honestly I really don't like the WW lynch. It just seems...well kinda silly honestly.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 06 2015 20:03 GMT
#407
On January 07 2015 04:59 Trfel wrote:
Wait, the voting deadline is tonight? I thought it was tomorrow night....

BTW I am here and am doing a careful rereading of the thread. I will post my thoughts and my vote when I am done, with explanations of course.


Its in about four hours so we're running out of time a bit to settle on a first lynch. It'd be really nice to pick off a mafia right away but at the moment all we really have is a pressure wagon on WW.

I guess its not the most terrible thing in the world (I've been suspicious of him for a while after all) but it still comes across as suboptimal. Not quite a "lynching for information" but pretty close.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 06 2015 20:10 GMT
#410
Fair enough, just wanted your thoughts.

I'm away for a while now anyway, got stuff to do and got to have dinner. I'll be back a little before the deadline to see where we stand.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 06 2015 20:36 GMT
#424
Had dinner. Going off to do some other things now but before I do I have to say that claiming like that brings my sights right back onto you, LS. Nobody actually asked for a claim off you and its not like you were under a huge amount of pressure. ExO was the only one really on you and you'd convinced me to give you the benefit of the doubt for a while with your past citations.

But a softclaim like that just a few hours before the deadline when nobody is actually pushing you makes it look as if you're panicking honestly. And that makes me incredibly suspicious once more.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 06 2015 20:37 GMT
#425
EBWOP: "...softclaim into hardclaim like that..."
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 06 2015 20:39 GMT
#427
Seriously though there was really no need to hardclaim at all... :-\
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 06 2015 22:34 GMT
#484
On January 07 2015 07:25 TheWarWaffle wrote:
No computer, 12% battery on IPhone. 2 hours until I am most likely lynched... Time for a desperate measure. I am town and possess a power role. I appear to have made a fool of myself through my and am unable to defend myself adequately at this time. All I can say is I'm not mafia and that there are better people to lynch.


Softclaiming a power role about an hour and a half before...I think most of the rest of us playing this game are going to need a bit more than that to be honest.

I'm open to be convinced to get onto one of the main bandwagons. I remain skeptical of LS and find jarjar to be very scummy but jarjar doesn't look like he'll get the votes and I'm not totally convinced that LS is a good day 1 lynch even if I do find his posts suspicious.

So I'm open to being convinced to my vote to help swing things, but I'm not going to do it unless people have convincing arguments one way or another. And I don't see a convincing argument to help try to get the lynch off you.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 06 2015 23:55 GMT
#509
On January 07 2015 08:54 Trfel wrote:
In the case of a tie, the first person to receive that number of votes would die.


So even if someone other than WW got a vote he'd still die?
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 07 2015 00:14 GMT
#517
Why in the name of all that is holy did he softclaim blue but not hardclaim veteran? :-\

Didn't like that lynch at all. No idea how that wagon built up that much momentum.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 07 2015 01:20 GMT
#524
On January 07 2015 09:59 rsoultin wrote:

Celestial and Gumdrop both had useless votes, which bothers me more from Celestial than Gumdrop simply because he was actually here to do something about it. Can you explain your vote, Celestial?



http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?page=25#484

I went over why I wasn't going with the top two earlier on before the kill. In fact I even acknowledged that my vote was likely going to be useless because jarjar was unlikely to get the votes needed but I was open to be convinced to change to a wagon. Nobody did in the end.


In short:

- Over and over again I've stated that WW was going a bad lynch. So I wasn't going to get on that wagon. I was leaning scum on him last set of reads, but when you decided to start the lynch train on him I was extremely uncomfortable hitching up to that because it was a train started over a pressure vote and not a clear analysis of him being scum.

- LS I was originally voting for and was my D1 lynch until he demonstrated that this kind of play as townie has been normal for him several times in the past. Which led me to conclude that, although I was still suspicious, he was a bad D1 lynch.

- I was never convinced of the case for a D1 Shining lynch though I explicitly stated in my last full set of reads that Shining was a possibly D2 lynch for me. I never saw enough from anyone in the last few pages to convince me otherwise to jump on the Shining train at this early point. Suspicious but not enough for me to condemn.

- jarjar was my second top read after LS. After LS convinced me he was a bad D1 lynch it was natural to switch to jarjar. I left myself open to being convinced to change that but nobody did, so I saw no point in switching votes so late from someone I've been reading scum to someone I'm less sure about purely so my votes were "with a group".


Ultimately in the end I wasn't convinced strongly enough either way on WW to try to kill him or save him. I felt it was a bad lynch but he didn't give me enough to go on to try to drive a campaign to save him, largely because he posted basically nothing. And nobody else posted anything to convince me of anyone else being a worthy target. So rather than throw my vote around randomly I felt it best to stick to my own reads, even if that meant a wasted vote.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 07 2015 01:31 GMT
#525
Anyway. I should be going to bed in a minute. Tomorrow when I get home I think I'm going to be taking a careful look over how that train got rolling. Got a very uncomfortable feeling about it all.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 07 2015 01:53 GMT
#530
On January 07 2015 10:32 rsoultin wrote:
It's clear here that you knew that WW claimed. So normally my BS meter would be going off, because you clearly stated here that you are also suspicious of LS, and a blue claim should be enough on Day 1 to convince people not to lynch WW.

You also clearly knew that WW was going to be the lynch.

I didn't personally like LS as a Day 1 lynch...although I think that of the players here he should be quicker to move his vote than anyone on that train and that does not sit well with me, considering I know that he was lynched as a blue role in his first game and was especially concerned about that the last several games, but apparently not this one...

Yet there was still shining.

Are you townreading Shining? If you're calling him a Day 2 lynch...I don't get it. Suspicious of LS and suspicious enough of Shining to consider lynching him, but you decided to park your vote instead?



I think I've already explained all of this really across my posts before the vote but alright.

WW's claim was a random, single post, drive-by claim. It was extremely unconvincing, at least I wasn't convinced. Should I just take that on faith more? In any case I wasn't particularly happy about the way it was going but by that time it was far too late to do anything other than vote WW, vote LS or vote Shining to have an impact.

I was scumreading LS until he provided evidence against it. I still am suspicious of LS but he convinced me to change my vote away earlier on the basis that it was a bad D1 decision and there was not enough evidence to justify to myself to change it back.

Shining I said quote "Could definitely be convinced for a D2 lynch here" after you started my mind thinking about him being scum, you can check my major read post from today for proof. I wasn't saying he was a lock-in for a D2 lynch, I was saying he was a possible good candidate to look at because at that point it looked like LS was taking a lot of the heat for D1.
Basically the reason why not D1 is because my impression at that time was that nobody had enough of a feeling to commit to that lynch and personally I wanted to see more evidence before I decided or started trying to convince people to get on that wagon anyway. Nothing I saw since then convinced me that Shining was scum, so I couldn't in good faith vote there. If you or anyone else had seen something more convincing from Shining then I might well have changed my vote there, but the follow-up on the accusations wasn't enough and as it was everyone got rolling on the WW train in the end.


I felt it best to be consistent to my reads rather than go with something I didn't feel was honest. Perhaps that's not the best way to play but I feel happier about making my own decision there than simply bandwagoning what was potentially one bad call over another bad call.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 07 2015 02:37 GMT
#538
He should have been given the benefit of the doubt on a three line post saying he's blue? Off the back of a bunch of suspicious posts? I'm really not sure what I can say here to be honest except that's just not how I felt when I saw it.

Yes, I threw my vote away. I own up to that and I'm sorry to WW for my part, small as it was, in the mislynch. I can't say I'm particularly happy about it but there it is and I'm really not sure what the you want from me here. I've already explained my reasoning, such as it is. I don't have much more I can really say.


And with all due respect you're the person who started the train on WW in the first place. So if we're asking questions here about voting motivations then please explain these posts of yours:
i want to lynch shining. i will settle for ww.

my initial vote on WW was pure pressure


You actively stated you preferred the Shining lynch over the WW one and your vote on WW was initially just pure pressure. But still remained on WW saying that you wouldn't be around at EoD to change it. Why? Why not go for the Shining vote that you were so convinced of? There were people who actually voted for WW around between his claim and the EoD that didn't change their votes. What of them?

In essence why are you trying to throw blame around so much on a lynch you actively participated in, despite claiming that someone else was more desirable as a lynch for you? I can't say I'm proud of myself for letting a blue get killed, but you deliberately voted for the poor guy, despite explicitly saying someone else was a better target.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 07 2015 02:41 GMT
#539
Right. I'm going to bed now. Its like half past two in the morning and I have to go to a seminar tomorrow. I'll read answers if you got them in the morning.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 07 2015 03:32 GMT
#549
On January 07 2015 11:46 rsoultin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 07 2015 11:37 -Celestial- wrote:
He should have been given the benefit of the doubt on a three line post saying he's blue? Off the back of a bunch of suspicious posts? I'm really not sure what I can say here to be honest except that's just not how I felt when I saw it.

Yes, I threw my vote away. I own up to that and I'm sorry to WW for my part, small as it was, in the mislynch. I can't say I'm particularly happy about it but there it is and I'm really not sure what the you want from me here. I've already explained my reasoning, such as it is. I don't have much more I can really say.


And with all due respect you're the person who started the train on WW in the first place. So if we're asking questions here about voting motivations then please explain these posts of yours:
i want to lynch shining. i will settle for ww.

my initial vote on WW was pure pressure


You actively stated you preferred the Shining lynch over the WW one and your vote on WW was initially just pure pressure. But still remained on WW saying that you wouldn't be around at EoD to change it. Why? Why not go for the Shining vote that you were so convinced of? There were people who actually voted for WW around between his claim and the EoD that didn't change their votes. What of them?

In essence why are you trying to throw blame around so much on a lynch you actively participated in, despite claiming that someone else was more desirable as a lynch for you? I can't say I'm proud of myself for letting a blue get killed, but you deliberately voted for the poor guy, despite explicitly saying someone else was a better target.


You're right. I did. At the time LS and WW were the only lynch wagons, with just HTS voting Shining, and I have only now become suspicious of LS. I did make an effort to convince people on Shining from my mobile during my lunch break, but Trfel and JarJar didn't vote until afterwards. Trfel himself was initially very reluctant to vote Shining and was the main one I was trying to convince, because I knew he had the best chance of pushing the lynch if I couldn't.

It probably would have been better if I had just switched my vote. The reads on demand right before the lynch didn't impress me that much, but had I gotten any support, I definitely would have switched. You clearly made the effort to look through my filter. Can you honestly say that it reads any differently?


Posting from bed on phone so please excuse spelling:

Except...you know...its not exactly convincing when you're staying on WW like that. So no, I can't say I read it that way at all. Frankly because of your lack of switch meant my read of your case was "this guy looks really suspicious but I still think WW is the best lynch". You apparently couldn't even convince yourself enough to switch to Shining. If you'd actually switched I might have switched because I'd have taken your case more seriously.

You want to lynch Shining tomorrow? Alright, we can look at doing that, just lay out your case in summary. I was never a big fan of Shining's posts here anyway, feels scummy; and a lot of your comments earlier were actually decent and on-point and reasonably convincing, especially looking back now. The problem for me is that they came across as very insincere at the time because you flat out were not backing them up with action by changing your vote.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 07 2015 03:35 GMT
#550
On January 07 2015 12:02 rsoultin wrote:
To be frank, Celestial, your idea that being aggressive, asking questions and scumreading people is scum behavior is very odd, even for a new player.

There are scum in this game.

They did play a role in this lynch somehow. Actively or passively it's hard to say with only WW flipped.

How do you expect to figure out and lynch scum without questioning people? Just sit there and it'll magically come to you as no one talks?

I would expect more people to be trying to figure this out and questioning odd behavior, rather than complaining about people "blaming" others. I did not go hard after you. I all but said I'm inclined to chalk it up to this being a newbie game. LS I went after because he honestly should know better...and he has in the past been very leery about lynching blue roles. This does not fit with his past behavior, or my expectations of him in his fourth game here.

Bah...I'll look at Shining again in the morning, because I still have strong suspicions about him. His last second vote switch to WW after the guy had claimed is icky and looks more like trying to save his own skin in case anyone changed their vote. (Although town can want to save their own skin, too, I do realize that.) But I want to bring new eyes to this. Bedtime for me.


...I'm not even saying that. Where am I saying that? Or giving the impression I'm saying that?

I'm actually genuinely confused here. I have NO idea where you're getting that one from aside from my very, very early post about your very first entry to the game.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 07 2015 14:17 GMT
#563
On January 07 2015 22:28 rsoultin wrote:
You and I are playing the game differently. I will try to vote for the most scummy train. If I can't convince people to go for my top scumread, I go for one of my other scumreads people are voting for. With no scumreads up for vote, I go with a null read. If all up for vote are townreads I try to convince people to consolidate on an alternative lynch starting at my scumreads and settling on null if I have to, cause it's better than voting a townread. I do it this way because you can be 100% right but if you're the only one voting someone they will never be lynched. So yay you can say "I told you so" at the end, but your vote was meaningless and town still lost. Does this make sense?


Fair enough. I get where you're going with it. Either way the whole vote was kinda flakey.


It's frustrating that you see questions as blame and accuse me of not looking into people voting WW between the claim and EoD and accuse me of blaming others in practically the same breath. What do you think I was doing all night? Is it just that you don't think I should be questioning people who were not voting WW or what gives?


I don't actually have an issue with the questioning in general, you're missing my real problem. My problem is the apparent inconsistencies between what you're saying and what you're asking. This was from the first post where you started questioning people:

On January 07 2015 09:59 rsoultin wrote:
Anyway...Silverarte and I were not in the thread at the time. Tubesock and LS were. Shining was voting for a counterwagon, not scummy in and of itself. Shining...can you please explain your reasoning for voting WW over LS with a soft blue claim?

Celestial and Gumdrop both had useless votes, which bothers me more from Celestial than Gumdrop simply because he was actually here to do something about it. Can you explain your vote, Celestial?



What I have an issue with is this: Here you highlight Tube and LS as having been about and, indeed, the two of them actually VOTED for WW. And you flat out acknowledge that Shining had a inherently good reason for voting the way he did (counterwagon to himself). However the people you specifically call out for explanations in that post are me and Shining. Which seems completely inconsistent with what you just said.

Shining is actually perhaps the most excusable of everyone who voted WW, because of wanting to ensure that someone else was lynched rather than him. Mine was a wasted vote, yes, but it was a wasted vote that I'd already stated the reasons for hours earlier with the option to being convinced and nobody actually made an attempt to do that except you, but you came across as insincere as I discussed.

To acknowledge that some people were directly culpable for what happened and then to explicitly call out the one most easily explicable and someone else who was only indirectly responsible to explain themselves for it is inconsistent in my view. Hell, its as inconsistent as you saying that Shining was the best lynch and then staying on WW. Care to explain why you specifically picked me and Shining to call out first over those who were less explicable or more directly culpable?


I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt for now despite all of this because I have my own suspicions on Shining and if you're going that angle I'd quite like to see your full impressions of him over D2. Assuming I even survive the night. But if we do lynch Shining D2 his flip is going to be very, very interesting.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 07 2015 22:56 GMT
#577
Just a heads-up: I'm not sure I'll be around too much tonight. I'm feeling unbelievably ill right now. Really awful stomach pains.

I'll try to address anything tomorrow if I can manage it.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 08 2015 14:07 GMT
#666
On January 08 2015 09:52 The Shining wrote:
Celestial throwing away that vote on JarJar is really suspicious. That and the very early big post by Celestial that gave out a bunch of free town reads, mine included, a post that wasn't really warranted at the time. As has been mentioned before, Mafia likes to give out free town reads and hide in big posts. They also like to make excuses, which Celestial has done right as EoN and beginning of Day 2 started.


Nice misrepresentation of my post you got there. If you actually look back to my first set of reads I was saying:
Leaning town: Shining, ExO_ and Trfel.
Suspicious of scum: rsoultin, jarjar, WW, Tube.
Null: Pretty much everyone else largely due to lack of posts.

Of course that's changed since then but..."Bunch of free town reads" indeed...makes me wonder why you're being so quick to actually LIE about what I posted. Pretty scummy behaviour.


On January 08 2015 12:26 LightningStrike wrote:
I don't like Celestial not liking the case on Shining from you


I did like the case on Shining, BUT because rsoultin wasn't going for it in votes I got the feeling that she just wasn't convinced by her own case. Which in retrospect is pretty strange, but we've already discussed it endlessly by this point. That being said between rsoultin's case and my own feelings about The Shining I'm really not feeling good about him; especially since he was just trying to misrepresent my original set of reads just now.


On January 08 2015 14:27 ExO_ wrote:
Then there's Celestial. I think I'm starting to scum read him as well. I didn't like that he just parked his vote on jarjar. I also don't like how he seems to be going whichever way the wind blows. He's easily swayed with whoever is posting at the time. For example he hopped right on the LS train with me, then when I was gone for a while he backed off it, only to start agreeing with me more when I got back in the thread. Another example is he did a bit of an OMGUS on rsoultin after day 1, but immediately said he was willing to give he the benefit of the doubt. That's scum behavior in my mind. Scum read.


If you actually check my posts you'd see I was already calling LS out with my original set of reads BEFORE you posted something to really set me off on that path; so no, it wasn't just you. Then I filter-dived for my second set of reads to confirm stuff before voting him; which was a very long time after you posted. But when LS demonstrated that he's played exactly this way before that set some doubt there, so getting off him was absolutely nothing to do with you. And note that I didn't switch back suspicions to LS because of you. Again, check my posts. I questioned you for your opinion on LS and then when LS decided to throw out a vague, apparently panicky, claim THAT is what made me suspicious of him again.

Which makes me question precisely why you're lying about the progression of events here.

My D1 issue with rsoultin is that having looked back over it her vote does not sit at all with her argument. Which I really, really don't like; I feel that if you believe that strongly you should vote and hope others follow. That being said I'm not entirely sure that makes rsoultin scum.


On January 08 2015 14:35 Silverarte wrote:
Celestial: You're been prolific in your posting, and it's led me to think town for you at first. The throwing away of your vote (as you put it) still puts a redmark on you to watch. I think my biggest fret is the free town passes early, straight to the vote...and then I'm not seeing much here about trying to contribute for the town and it feels floaty about-ish. Is Rsoultin your biggest target right now? Why?


No. My issue with rsoultin I mentioned above. I'm just kind of floating on her. Sometimes I get a strong scum feel others I feel she's genuinely town.

To be honest my biggest target right now would probably be Shining. Between what Shining posted yesterday, coupled with the fact that he's so quick to misrepresent what I actually said and twist it like that (detailed above)...that feels very, very wrong to me. Could just be a newbie error but I don't get that feeling.



Anyway I'm going to hold off a little before I vote. Frankly from the early leaders I don't think BOTH of LS and Shining are scum unless they're bussing each other in the hope of one surviving. And I'm bouncing between town and scum on rsoultin, the posting seems genuine but the actions make me uncomfortable and I really don't like it when what people say doesn't really match up with what they do.

Right now I'm inclined to go with Shining.


I think I covered everything here. I'm still really ill but I'll try and get on again later to address anything that pops up.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 08 2015 14:17 GMT
#667
EBWOP: To clarify. I posted this about LS:
LightningStrike just posted fluff and comments on other people's posts so far. Not really sure what to make of that honestly.


I didn't like the fact he was just trying to avoid content. Then he mentioned that he was like this in other games which I took at face value until YOU posted your observations which I found compelling. Later on LS posted previous games for review, which drew me off him and it wasn't until he posted a claim (which I found to be an over-the-top panicked reaction to nothing at all) that I became incredibly suspicious again.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 08 2015 14:17 GMT
#668
EBWOP: "YOU" being ExO there.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 08 2015 14:31 GMT
#670
Which one? That big long post you made predicting which kill?
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 08 2015 14:57 GMT
#673
I'll make this short in case I have to run off to be sick. >_>

These are just my first impressions incidentally. If I have any more thoughts on the NK situation I'll post them later.


The big talkers are potential doc saves so that makes them less likely to be targeted I reckon. Trfel was fairly quiet and hasn't put out a huge amount to go on. But he DID say that was going to be the case at first. Looking back he said:
Oh, and a pregame excuse. Several days from now I will be moving back to school, so I will be less active for a while then. Sorry for the inconvenience.


He's not been active in this game much but I'll take your word for it that he's been a good player previously. It seems to me out of the three you highlighted that he's been the quietest, making doc save less likely.

I think the soft defend excuse against not killing Trfel of Shining and LS doesn't really add up. Both of LS and Shining are under intense pressure, killing Trfel and revealing him as town weakens cases against both of them precisely because of the "I don't think they're mafia" and him turning up dead. "Why would they kill someone defending them?" is the logic and it makes sense on the surface. But since he's relatively inactive he's not going to be much help actively defending them D2, assuming his activity stays the same.

If Shining or LS were looking to sow a seed of doubt in the cases against them, a kill of a person who was supporting them but was relatively inactive and so is unlikely to be a huge amount of help in shifting accusations seems to be the way to go. Because it outs a supporter as a townie whilst not losing too much because he's inactive. Whilst simultaneously taking out a good player by reputation based on what you just said about his play in Carol.

To me the real question is which of LS and Shining is the scum. Or are they both and bussing each other in the hopes that one will survive?
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 08 2015 19:05 GMT
#683
On January 09 2015 02:11 ExO_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote:
On January 08 2015 14:27 ExO_ wrote:
Then there's Celestial. I think I'm starting to scum read him as well. I didn't like that he just parked his vote on jarjar. I also don't like how he seems to be going whichever way the wind blows. He's easily swayed with whoever is posting at the time. For example he hopped right on the LS train with me, then when I was gone for a while he backed off it, only to start agreeing with me more when I got back in the thread. Another example is he did a bit of an OMGUS on rsoultin after day 1, but immediately said he was willing to give he the benefit of the doubt. That's scum behavior in my mind. Scum read.


If you actually check my posts you'd see I was already calling LS out with my original set of reads BEFORE you posted something to really set me off on that path; so no, it wasn't just you.



You are lying and I can prove it.

Show nested quote +
On January 06 2015 01:32 -Celestial- wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

LightningStrike just posted fluff and comments on other people's posts so far. Not really sure what to make of that honestly....
---
...Edit: LS posted as I was writing this. Last post was pretty good in my opinion, some credit there. Still don't want to make a call on him though. Neutral for now.


Before my post, this is the only mention you made to lightning strike. And even though you say he posts fluff, in that same post you go on to say his last post was good and he gets some credit. The next time you mention LS, is quoting and agreeing with me.


Except you just explicitly quoted me expressing doubt and highlighting him by saying I wasn't sure what to make of him. He posted AFTER I posted leading to my later comment about how I'd liked his post which put me off his scent. But that does NOT wipe out the fact I was originally dubious of his posting.

You're misrepresenting me AGAIN here. Point out the lie. I mean really...



Show nested quote +
On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

Then I filter-dived for my second set of reads to confirm stuff before voting him; which was a very long time after you posted. But when LS demonstrated that he's played exactly this way before that set some doubt there, so getting off him was absolutely nothing to do with you. And note that I didn't switch back suspicions to LS because of you. Again, check my posts. I questioned you for your opinion on LS and then when LS decided to throw out a vague, apparently panicky, claim THAT is what made me suspicious of him again.




Oh really?

Show nested quote +
On January 07 2015 01:43 -Celestial- wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

Ok I've taken the time myself to read over the evidence that LS presented and...actually its pretty convincing. Although I think meta reads, especially based on just one game, can easily be manipulated he IS playing this very similar to the way he has in the past and it IS from three separate games so...yeah well done there.

I can't in good faith vote LS anymore. His playstyle is just too consistent between townie games there and it has severely shaken my confidence on it. I don't really know playstyles very well of course but those links were fairly convincing. Of course LS could be deliberately selecting evidence but it doesn't feel like that, it feels more like a genuine attempt at convincing. Not a D1 lynch for me anymore.



At this point in time I had been gone from the thread for a while. And thus the discussion moved away from LS for a while. As does your vote, and your vocal suspicions. Next comes:

Show nested quote +
On January 07 2015 04:50 -Celestial- wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

@ExO_: What are your thoughts on LS (and others) pointing out he's played exactly the same way when he's been town on several previous occasions? I've been somewhat persuaded by that enough to conclude that for now I don't think he's the best D1 lynch. I mean I'm still not won over to make him town, but ideally we're looking for a D1 mafia lynch and I don't think he's the one to guarantee it
.



You finally go back on to LS with:

Show nested quote +
On January 07 2015 05:36 -Celestial- wrote:

+ Show Spoiler +
Had dinner. Going off to do some other things now but before I do I have to say that claiming like that brings my sights right back onto you, LS. Nobody actually asked for a claim off you and its not like you were under a huge amount of pressure. ExO was the only one really on you and you'd convinced me to give you the benefit of the doubt for a while with your past citations.

But a softclaim like that just a few hours before the deadline when nobody is actually pushing you makes it look as if you're panicking honestly. And that makes me incredibly suspicious once more
.


Coincidentally guess what I posted just 6 posts and 12 minutes before the above quoted post::

Show nested quote +
On January 07 2015 05:24 ExO_ wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

On January 07 2015 05:13 Half the Sky wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 07 2015 05:07 ExO_ wrote:
Correct me if I'm wrong but is there any example of his mafia play? If there isn't any evidence to show that he'd act differently as scum, then I think the town-meta-read on him is garbage.


ExO, there is. In Student Mafia IV (my own first game), he was a mafia goon. And he showed in his posts that he had more to hide in that game. At least in comparison I think.

Game:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/471489-student-mafia-iv-new-newish-players-welcome

LS filter:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/471489-student-mafia-iv-new-newish-players-welcome?user=LightningStrike


I'll admit he had more initial scum reads at first. But then, there's this his first big "read" post:

On November 28 2014 12:56 LightningStrike wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

Okay since now that my cousin and his wife and son have left I can finally give you guys my current reads for the time being.
Breshke: Town since he displaying the same kind of approach for today as he did in my last game when he was town.

Batsnacks: Null leaning town since he is acting close to the same way he did last game with me when he was a doctor but he been dodging questions from Oatsmaster and Half the Sky.

Damndred: Null leaning town since he was one of the major pushers for the lynching of DSIM without much of a good reason and been defending Batsnacks actions but at the same time he been giving losts of questions although DSIM didn't respond well to the questions.

Half the Sky: Town since he been giving good reasonings for his reads throughout the game although I don't like his case for Batsnacks being scum based on my own experience playing with Batsnacks in my last game.

sicklucker: Town because his posting style had pretty much stayed the same from the last game I played with him although he did looked very scummy in that game but he was just a Vanilla town and since our power roles had been lynched/killed I having a safe bet that sicklucker is town.

meatpudding: Null leaning town he had some decent questions after being gone for a while and now he claiming to have no power at his house it could be a scum move because one of the scums in my last game tried to pull that move but failed so perhaps meatpudding could scum.

alakaslam: null leaning scum since he not posted much of his reads but he also admitted to notread much of the thread during the time of us lynching DSIM but I need to see more posts of his though since he said he had to go earlier in the thread to confirm my suspicions.

Oatsmasters: Town since he been asking lots of questions to everyone and been trying to lead the discussion when he can which isn't a trait a scum member would do.

kushm4sta: Null leaning scum since he not been contributing a lot like his last scum game which was my last although he did give a couple questions to people he also didn't post much so I need to wait for him to post more so I can get a better read on him

rsoultin: Null leaning town since he trying to ask some questions and responding to questions he been asked by others although he did convence me to lynch DSIM that is haunting me because of my last game experience :|


Look Familiar?



HTS and I have a discussion about LS, and then you went back on him.


So you're just going to straight up ignore this?
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?page=21#412

LS straight up claimed VT with zero pressure on him. AFTER my last reply to you, which influenced me to doubt him again. So once again you are completely misrepresenting the situation.


So at the very least, you are lying about suspecting LS before I posted. You pushed suspicion onto the WW train while carefully parking your vote on jarjar. You have been careful this game and generally agreeable. But if there's one thing I believe:

Liars should be lynched

People make mistakes. But I believe your post is intentionally misleading, not accidental.

##Vote: Celestial


I've just demonstrated I was dubious of LS on my initial impressions which was then improved by his later post (notice that it was an EDIT which brought that back), knocked back again by what you posted, redeemed by him demonstrating similar play in later games and then brought down somewhat again by his panicky claim. THIS is the factual story rather than the narrative you're making up and is what I was pointing out in my earlier reply.

I was never happy with WW's posting but it was not enough to lynch but nor was it enough to encourage people not to lynch, which I've already explained multiple times to the point I'm getting tired of pointing it out. Its like banging my head against a goddamn wall. If I've been "generally agreeable" then I wouldn't be repeatedly sticking my neck out by being ever suspicious of the motives of rsoultin considering virtually everyone else has been apparently townreading her to date. Honestly, this is absurd.

You are intentionally and very deliberately misrepresenting everything I've said so far and flat out making up a timeline of events to support your story. Frankly I question your motivations here. I had you down for town but now you're making a hell of an effort to twist the order of events to suit yourself.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 08 2015 19:14 GMT
#684
EBWOP: On reflection what you're actually doing is removing all context from events in order to form your story. Which is a nice way to fabricate something I suppose.

So I guess my question to you is...why are you removing context and anyone else's input from the flow of events?
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 08 2015 19:47 GMT
#690
On January 09 2015 03:51 Tubesock wrote:
I didn't think Trfel was townreading The Shining or LightningStrike until about 3 times of rereading his filter. Did you guys think that he was not scumming them?

Is my thinking bad to believe that we could not have had 2 mafia on 3 wagons on Day 1? It's possible sure, but really? I get the argument that if BOTH LS and Shining are mafia that Trfel is a good NK. If none or one of them are mafia, I have a really hard time they wouldn't kill Rsoultin, Half The Sky, or ExO_.

Can more people talk to me about this? If you can't tell, I'm pretty dense and stubborn. I need more than one person to say this is a crackpot idea.


Honestly I get the impression either way is possible because my impression is that its a disruptive kill. I'm pretty sure one of LS and Shining is mafia and I really doubt both of them are. The thing is that a Trfel NK can have two effects. One is as we discussed before (reducing interest in both) and the other is the precise opposite (increasing interest in both); which would set the town arguing in circles over two people, one of whom is mafia. The trick now is to work out which of these is true.

A kill on a strong person against them would only intensify the interest against them. At least it'd make me more interested in them, I'm not sure how other people would read it. Personally I'm inclined to believe that at least one of them is mafia and this was a deliberate attempt to sow confusion. I would then expect them to get on board with a town lynch wagon for D2 in order to hide amongst the votes. Of course that's what a townie might do too so its not alignment indicative but its a perfect way to hide.

Its not a crackpot idea but I don't think its the only interpretation here.


-Celestial- - You mentioned you had no idea how the wagon started and got momentum. I haven't seen you pursue that just yet. I probably missed it, can you let me know what you've learned?


Well I've not really had a chance to dive it in too much detail but as far as I can tell it was something like this:

rsoultin attempted to force WW to post something...anything (this we know already). Personally I was inclined to agree with the scum assessment early but as WW actually started posting the lynch just started to feel wrong.

After that initial post LS was quick to park his vote there too. Then Silver just sheeped rsoultin on the basis of lurking. As far as I can tell nobody actually QUESTIONED it until WW actually came back. LS posted asking for other people's views of other people's comments but that was about it and it was around this time that LS had his little panicky period with softclaiming.

Then WW finally posted, putting his suspicions on rsoultin, Trfel and LS whilst citing Silver and Tube as mafia. Shortly after this LS then hardclaims VT in an apparent panic over nonexistent pressure.

Then we got into the whole nonsense of rsoultin building a clear case on Shining but not following through with it. rsoultin has claimed since then it was just because of the lack of votes on Shining, which I could go either way on (could be honest, could be shenanigans).

rsoultin went off after leaving her vote on WW but Trfel came in with his switch to Shining after putting a valid reason for not liking LS much either but preferring Shining. He'd originally voted LS and still felt pretty strongly negative on LS but preferred the Shining wagon.

After the blue claim both you, tube, and LS stayed on WW. But pointing fingers is pointless because a bunch of people clearly made mistakes at that point. jarjar was on Shining very late in the day which left very, very little time for any kind of attempt to save WW unfortunately (note that until WW had jarjar on him it was 5v2 and would have taken two people actively voting for WW to save him, this was the case until only 10 minutes before the EoD).


Actually...looking back...this makes LS look REALLY bad.



At the moment I'm still inclined to go with the Shining wagon. The arguments from rsoultin still largely hold up despite my own suspicions on rsoultin...but since nobody else apart from jarjar is apparently feeling anything from rsoultin I have to conclude I might be wrong there. The blatant attempts to misrepresent me by ExO here almost make me want to vote him but I'm not going to do that because it'd pretty much be just because of OMGUS now I've let my indignation cool a little I think it may just be because he's overlooking stuff.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 08 2015 19:47 GMT
#691
EBWOP: I mean I could be missing stuff here. I've just gone over my notes really quickly and done a quick bit of filter diving on that whole period so something may have slipped under my radar.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 08 2015 19:57 GMT
#693
On January 09 2015 04:23 LightningStrike wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 09 2015 04:05 -Celestial- wrote:
On January 09 2015 02:11 ExO_ wrote:
On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote:
On January 08 2015 14:27 ExO_ wrote:
Then there's Celestial. I think I'm starting to scum read him as well. I didn't like that he just parked his vote on jarjar. I also don't like how he seems to be going whichever way the wind blows. He's easily swayed with whoever is posting at the time. For example he hopped right on the LS train with me, then when I was gone for a while he backed off it, only to start agreeing with me more when I got back in the thread. Another example is he did a bit of an OMGUS on rsoultin after day 1, but immediately said he was willing to give he the benefit of the doubt. That's scum behavior in my mind. Scum read.


If you actually check my posts you'd see I was already calling LS out with my original set of reads BEFORE you posted something to really set me off on that path; so no, it wasn't just you.



You are lying and I can prove it.

On January 06 2015 01:32 -Celestial- wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

LightningStrike just posted fluff and comments on other people's posts so far. Not really sure what to make of that honestly....
---
...Edit: LS posted as I was writing this. Last post was pretty good in my opinion, some credit there. Still don't want to make a call on him though. Neutral for now.


Before my post, this is the only mention you made to lightning strike. And even though you say he posts fluff, in that same post you go on to say his last post was good and he gets some credit. The next time you mention LS, is quoting and agreeing with me.


Except you just explicitly quoted me expressing doubt and highlighting him by saying I wasn't sure what to make of him. He posted AFTER I posted leading to my later comment about how I'd liked his post which put me off his scent. But that does NOT wipe out the fact I was originally dubious of his posting.

You're misrepresenting me AGAIN here. Point out the lie. I mean really...



On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

Then I filter-dived for my second set of reads to confirm stuff before voting him; which was a very long time after you posted. But when LS demonstrated that he's played exactly this way before that set some doubt there, so getting off him was absolutely nothing to do with you. And note that I didn't switch back suspicions to LS because of you. Again, check my posts. I questioned you for your opinion on LS and then when LS decided to throw out a vague, apparently panicky, claim THAT is what made me suspicious of him again.




Oh really?

On January 07 2015 01:43 -Celestial- wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

Ok I've taken the time myself to read over the evidence that LS presented and...actually its pretty convincing. Although I think meta reads, especially based on just one game, can easily be manipulated he IS playing this very similar to the way he has in the past and it IS from three separate games so...yeah well done there.

I can't in good faith vote LS anymore. His playstyle is just too consistent between townie games there and it has severely shaken my confidence on it. I don't really know playstyles very well of course but those links were fairly convincing. Of course LS could be deliberately selecting evidence but it doesn't feel like that, it feels more like a genuine attempt at convincing. Not a D1 lynch for me anymore.



At this point in time I had been gone from the thread for a while. And thus the discussion moved away from LS for a while. As does your vote, and your vocal suspicions. Next comes:

On January 07 2015 04:50 -Celestial- wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

@ExO_: What are your thoughts on LS (and others) pointing out he's played exactly the same way when he's been town on several previous occasions? I've been somewhat persuaded by that enough to conclude that for now I don't think he's the best D1 lynch. I mean I'm still not won over to make him town, but ideally we're looking for a D1 mafia lynch and I don't think he's the one to guarantee it
.



You finally go back on to LS with:

On January 07 2015 05:36 -Celestial- wrote:

+ Show Spoiler +
Had dinner. Going off to do some other things now but before I do I have to say that claiming like that brings my sights right back onto you, LS. Nobody actually asked for a claim off you and its not like you were under a huge amount of pressure. ExO was the only one really on you and you'd convinced me to give you the benefit of the doubt for a while with your past citations.

But a softclaim like that just a few hours before the deadline when nobody is actually pushing you makes it look as if you're panicking honestly. And that makes me incredibly suspicious once more
.


Coincidentally guess what I posted just 6 posts and 12 minutes before the above quoted post::

On January 07 2015 05:24 ExO_ wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

On January 07 2015 05:13 Half the Sky wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 07 2015 05:07 ExO_ wrote:
Correct me if I'm wrong but is there any example of his mafia play? If there isn't any evidence to show that he'd act differently as scum, then I think the town-meta-read on him is garbage.


ExO, there is. In Student Mafia IV (my own first game), he was a mafia goon. And he showed in his posts that he had more to hide in that game. At least in comparison I think.

Game:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/471489-student-mafia-iv-new-newish-players-welcome

LS filter:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/471489-student-mafia-iv-new-newish-players-welcome?user=LightningStrike


I'll admit he had more initial scum reads at first. But then, there's this his first big "read" post:

On November 28 2014 12:56 LightningStrike wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

Okay since now that my cousin and his wife and son have left I can finally give you guys my current reads for the time being.
Breshke: Town since he displaying the same kind of approach for today as he did in my last game when he was town.

Batsnacks: Null leaning town since he is acting close to the same way he did last game with me when he was a doctor but he been dodging questions from Oatsmaster and Half the Sky.

Damndred: Null leaning town since he was one of the major pushers for the lynching of DSIM without much of a good reason and been defending Batsnacks actions but at the same time he been giving losts of questions although DSIM didn't respond well to the questions.

Half the Sky: Town since he been giving good reasonings for his reads throughout the game although I don't like his case for Batsnacks being scum based on my own experience playing with Batsnacks in my last game.

sicklucker: Town because his posting style had pretty much stayed the same from the last game I played with him although he did looked very scummy in that game but he was just a Vanilla town and since our power roles had been lynched/killed I having a safe bet that sicklucker is town.

meatpudding: Null leaning town he had some decent questions after being gone for a while and now he claiming to have no power at his house it could be a scum move because one of the scums in my last game tried to pull that move but failed so perhaps meatpudding could scum.

alakaslam: null leaning scum since he not posted much of his reads but he also admitted to notread much of the thread during the time of us lynching DSIM but I need to see more posts of his though since he said he had to go earlier in the thread to confirm my suspicions.

Oatsmasters: Town since he been asking lots of questions to everyone and been trying to lead the discussion when he can which isn't a trait a scum member would do.

kushm4sta: Null leaning scum since he not been contributing a lot like his last scum game which was my last although he did give a couple questions to people he also didn't post much so I need to wait for him to post more so I can get a better read on him

rsoultin: Null leaning town since he trying to ask some questions and responding to questions he been asked by others although he did convence me to lynch DSIM that is haunting me because of my last game experience :|


Look Familiar?



HTS and I have a discussion about LS, and then you went back on him.


So you're just going to straight up ignore this?
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?page=21#412

LS straight up claimed VT with zero pressure on him. AFTER my last reply to you, which influenced me to doubt him again. So once again you are completely misrepresenting the situation.


So at the very least, you are lying about suspecting LS before I posted. You pushed suspicion onto the WW train while carefully parking your vote on jarjar. You have been careful this game and generally agreeable. But if there's one thing I believe:

Liars should be lynched

People make mistakes. But I believe your post is intentionally misleading, not accidental.

##Vote: Celestial


I've just demonstrated I was dubious of LS on my initial impressions which was then improved by his later post (notice that it was an EDIT which brought that back), knocked back again by what you posted, redeemed by him demonstrating similar play in later games and then brought down somewhat again by his panicky claim. THIS is the factual story rather than the narrative you're making up and is what I was pointing out in my earlier reply.

I was never happy with WW's posting but it was not enough to lynch but nor was it enough to encourage people not to lynch, which I've already explained multiple times to the point I'm getting tired of pointing it out. Its like banging my head against a goddamn wall. If I've been "generally agreeable" then I wouldn't be repeatedly sticking my neck out by being ever suspicious of the motives of rsoultin considering virtually everyone else has been apparently townreading her to date. Honestly, this is absurd.

You are intentionally and very deliberately misrepresenting everything I've said so far and flat out making up a timeline of events to support your story. Frankly I question your motivations here. I had you down for town but now you're making a hell of an effort to twist the order of events to suit yourself.

I claimed VT because I thought I was getting lynched and claimed there simple as that. I had the majority of the votes at the time I claimed VT.


On January 09 2015 04:54 LightningStrike wrote:
Celestial did you not see the vote count at the time I claimed VT? Ya the majority was on me not WW. Ofc I would claim if I had the majority of the votes a couple hours before being lynched.



As far as I can tell this an outright LIE. When you "softclaimed" you had two votes on you, which was more than anyone else (but only by 1 vote). And you staying that way was contingent on you not providing me with any evidence to the contrary, which you did not long after which got my vote off you.

But when you claimed VT you did NOT have the majority.

PROOF!
Here is your VT claim:
On January 07 2015 05:12 LightningStrike wrote:
I'm Vanilla Town this game I wish I was a Cop to redeem myself from Campus Mafia



Votes:
On January 07 2015 05:07 kitaman27 wrote:
Day 1 Vote Count

jarjarbinks (1): ExO_, -Celestial-
LightningStrike (1): ExO_, -Celestial-
Gumdrop (1): Tubesock
TheWarWaffle (3): rsoultin, LightningStrike, Silverarte
Tubesock (1): TheWarWaffle

Not Voting (5): The Shining, Half the Sky, jarjarbinks, Trfel, Gumdrop

Currently, TheWarWaffle is set to be lynched. until deadline.


This was FIVE MINUTES before your outright VT claim with WW being a solid two votes ahead of you. The next vote was Gumdrop voting ExO more than twenty minutes after that. You were NOT ahead in votecount.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 08 2015 20:11 GMT
#699
On January 09 2015 04:59 ExO_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote:

If you actually check my posts you'd see I was already calling LS out with my original set of reads BEFORE you posted something to really set me off on that path; so no, it wasn't just you.



This is a lie Celestial. Saying he's posting fluff and then giving him town credit is not calling him out. You didn't say anything significant against him until I made my big post. This isn't altering the timeline of events, nor is it misquoting you.

It's trying to get credit for FoSing someone you didn't. I'm not letting you slip by with that.



Do I seriously have to spell this out?

Ok THIS was the first thing I posted on LS:

LightningStrike just posted fluff and comments on other people's posts so far. Not really sure what to make of that honestly.


Translation: I'm weirded out by his posting.

Whilst I was writing that he posted something which changed my mind somewhat, leading me to edit with this:
Edit: LS posted as I was writing this. Last post was pretty good in my opinion, some credit there. Still don't want to make a call on him though. Neutral for now.


To explicitly spell this out: I didn't like his early junk and pointed it out as being weird, then he posted a good post which made me lean away from suspicion somewhat.


No, I didn't post anything "significant" against him because I didn't HAVE anything significant. What I HAD was doubt, which I highlighted in my first post before he posted something that made me less inclined to believe in that doubt, but it did not eliminate it which is why I explicitly said he was a null read rather than leaning town.

I notice you're no longer commenting on the later parts of this story. Is that because the stuff you're making up no longer fits then?

Again, why are you twisting what happened to make up a story? You appear to be wanting to try to make my reads a lot more extreme than they were. The only lies here are a result of your creative interpreting.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 08 2015 20:25 GMT
#706
On January 09 2015 05:00 LightningStrike wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 09 2015 04:57 -Celestial- wrote:
On January 09 2015 04:23 LightningStrike wrote:
On January 09 2015 04:05 -Celestial- wrote:
On January 09 2015 02:11 ExO_ wrote:
On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote:
On January 08 2015 14:27 ExO_ wrote:
Then there's Celestial. I think I'm starting to scum read him as well. I didn't like that he just parked his vote on jarjar. I also don't like how he seems to be going whichever way the wind blows. He's easily swayed with whoever is posting at the time. For example he hopped right on the LS train with me, then when I was gone for a while he backed off it, only to start agreeing with me more when I got back in the thread. Another example is he did a bit of an OMGUS on rsoultin after day 1, but immediately said he was willing to give he the benefit of the doubt. That's scum behavior in my mind. Scum read.


If you actually check my posts you'd see I was already calling LS out with my original set of reads BEFORE you posted something to really set me off on that path; so no, it wasn't just you.



You are lying and I can prove it.

On January 06 2015 01:32 -Celestial- wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

LightningStrike just posted fluff and comments on other people's posts so far. Not really sure what to make of that honestly....
---
...Edit: LS posted as I was writing this. Last post was pretty good in my opinion, some credit there. Still don't want to make a call on him though. Neutral for now.


Before my post, this is the only mention you made to lightning strike. And even though you say he posts fluff, in that same post you go on to say his last post was good and he gets some credit. The next time you mention LS, is quoting and agreeing with me.


Except you just explicitly quoted me expressing doubt and highlighting him by saying I wasn't sure what to make of him. He posted AFTER I posted leading to my later comment about how I'd liked his post which put me off his scent. But that does NOT wipe out the fact I was originally dubious of his posting.

You're misrepresenting me AGAIN here. Point out the lie. I mean really...



On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

Then I filter-dived for my second set of reads to confirm stuff before voting him; which was a very long time after you posted. But when LS demonstrated that he's played exactly this way before that set some doubt there, so getting off him was absolutely nothing to do with you. And note that I didn't switch back suspicions to LS because of you. Again, check my posts. I questioned you for your opinion on LS and then when LS decided to throw out a vague, apparently panicky, claim THAT is what made me suspicious of him again.




Oh really?

On January 07 2015 01:43 -Celestial- wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

Ok I've taken the time myself to read over the evidence that LS presented and...actually its pretty convincing. Although I think meta reads, especially based on just one game, can easily be manipulated he IS playing this very similar to the way he has in the past and it IS from three separate games so...yeah well done there.

I can't in good faith vote LS anymore. His playstyle is just too consistent between townie games there and it has severely shaken my confidence on it. I don't really know playstyles very well of course but those links were fairly convincing. Of course LS could be deliberately selecting evidence but it doesn't feel like that, it feels more like a genuine attempt at convincing. Not a D1 lynch for me anymore.



At this point in time I had been gone from the thread for a while. And thus the discussion moved away from LS for a while. As does your vote, and your vocal suspicions. Next comes:

On January 07 2015 04:50 -Celestial- wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

@ExO_: What are your thoughts on LS (and others) pointing out he's played exactly the same way when he's been town on several previous occasions? I've been somewhat persuaded by that enough to conclude that for now I don't think he's the best D1 lynch. I mean I'm still not won over to make him town, but ideally we're looking for a D1 mafia lynch and I don't think he's the one to guarantee it
.



You finally go back on to LS with:

On January 07 2015 05:36 -Celestial- wrote:

+ Show Spoiler +
Had dinner. Going off to do some other things now but before I do I have to say that claiming like that brings my sights right back onto you, LS. Nobody actually asked for a claim off you and its not like you were under a huge amount of pressure. ExO was the only one really on you and you'd convinced me to give you the benefit of the doubt for a while with your past citations.

But a softclaim like that just a few hours before the deadline when nobody is actually pushing you makes it look as if you're panicking honestly. And that makes me incredibly suspicious once more
.


Coincidentally guess what I posted just 6 posts and 12 minutes before the above quoted post::

On January 07 2015 05:24 ExO_ wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

On January 07 2015 05:13 Half the Sky wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 07 2015 05:07 ExO_ wrote:
Correct me if I'm wrong but is there any example of his mafia play? If there isn't any evidence to show that he'd act differently as scum, then I think the town-meta-read on him is garbage.


ExO, there is. In Student Mafia IV (my own first game), he was a mafia goon. And he showed in his posts that he had more to hide in that game. At least in comparison I think.

Game:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/471489-student-mafia-iv-new-newish-players-welcome

LS filter:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/471489-student-mafia-iv-new-newish-players-welcome?user=LightningStrike


I'll admit he had more initial scum reads at first. But then, there's this his first big "read" post:

On November 28 2014 12:56 LightningStrike wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

Okay since now that my cousin and his wife and son have left I can finally give you guys my current reads for the time being.
Breshke: Town since he displaying the same kind of approach for today as he did in my last game when he was town.

Batsnacks: Null leaning town since he is acting close to the same way he did last game with me when he was a doctor but he been dodging questions from Oatsmaster and Half the Sky.

Damndred: Null leaning town since he was one of the major pushers for the lynching of DSIM without much of a good reason and been defending Batsnacks actions but at the same time he been giving losts of questions although DSIM didn't respond well to the questions.

Half the Sky: Town since he been giving good reasonings for his reads throughout the game although I don't like his case for Batsnacks being scum based on my own experience playing with Batsnacks in my last game.

sicklucker: Town because his posting style had pretty much stayed the same from the last game I played with him although he did looked very scummy in that game but he was just a Vanilla town and since our power roles had been lynched/killed I having a safe bet that sicklucker is town.

meatpudding: Null leaning town he had some decent questions after being gone for a while and now he claiming to have no power at his house it could be a scum move because one of the scums in my last game tried to pull that move but failed so perhaps meatpudding could scum.

alakaslam: null leaning scum since he not posted much of his reads but he also admitted to notread much of the thread during the time of us lynching DSIM but I need to see more posts of his though since he said he had to go earlier in the thread to confirm my suspicions.

Oatsmasters: Town since he been asking lots of questions to everyone and been trying to lead the discussion when he can which isn't a trait a scum member would do.

kushm4sta: Null leaning scum since he not been contributing a lot like his last scum game which was my last although he did give a couple questions to people he also didn't post much so I need to wait for him to post more so I can get a better read on him

rsoultin: Null leaning town since he trying to ask some questions and responding to questions he been asked by others although he did convence me to lynch DSIM that is haunting me because of my last game experience :|


Look Familiar?



HTS and I have a discussion about LS, and then you went back on him.


So you're just going to straight up ignore this?
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?page=21#412

LS straight up claimed VT with zero pressure on him. AFTER my last reply to you, which influenced me to doubt him again. So once again you are completely misrepresenting the situation.


So at the very least, you are lying about suspecting LS before I posted. You pushed suspicion onto the WW train while carefully parking your vote on jarjar. You have been careful this game and generally agreeable. But if there's one thing I believe:

Liars should be lynched

People make mistakes. But I believe your post is intentionally misleading, not accidental.

##Vote: Celestial


I've just demonstrated I was dubious of LS on my initial impressions which was then improved by his later post (notice that it was an EDIT which brought that back), knocked back again by what you posted, redeemed by him demonstrating similar play in later games and then brought down somewhat again by his panicky claim. THIS is the factual story rather than the narrative you're making up and is what I was pointing out in my earlier reply.

I was never happy with WW's posting but it was not enough to lynch but nor was it enough to encourage people not to lynch, which I've already explained multiple times to the point I'm getting tired of pointing it out. Its like banging my head against a goddamn wall. If I've been "generally agreeable" then I wouldn't be repeatedly sticking my neck out by being ever suspicious of the motives of rsoultin considering virtually everyone else has been apparently townreading her to date. Honestly, this is absurd.

You are intentionally and very deliberately misrepresenting everything I've said so far and flat out making up a timeline of events to support your story. Frankly I question your motivations here. I had you down for town but now you're making a hell of an effort to twist the order of events to suit yourself.

I claimed VT because I thought I was getting lynched and claimed there simple as that. I had the majority of the votes at the time I claimed VT.


On January 09 2015 04:54 LightningStrike wrote:
Celestial did you not see the vote count at the time I claimed VT? Ya the majority was on me not WW. Ofc I would claim if I had the majority of the votes a couple hours before being lynched.



As far as I can tell this an outright LIE. When you "softclaimed" you had two votes on you, which was more than anyone else (but only by 1 vote). And you staying that way was contingent on you not providing me with any evidence to the contrary, which you did not long after which got my vote off you.

But when you claimed VT you did NOT have the majority.

PROOF!
Here is your VT claim:
On January 07 2015 05:12 LightningStrike wrote:
I'm Vanilla Town this game I wish I was a Cop to redeem myself from Campus Mafia



Votes:
On January 07 2015 05:07 kitaman27 wrote:
Day 1 Vote Count

jarjarbinks (1): ExO_, -Celestial-
LightningStrike (1): ExO_, -Celestial-
Gumdrop (1): Tubesock
TheWarWaffle (3): rsoultin, LightningStrike, Silverarte
Tubesock (1): TheWarWaffle

Not Voting (5): The Shining, Half the Sky, jarjarbinks, Trfel, Gumdrop

Currently, TheWarWaffle is set to be lynched. until deadline.


This was FIVE MINUTES before your outright VT claim with WW being a solid two votes ahead of you. The next vote was Gumdrop voting ExO more than twenty minutes after that. You were NOT ahead in votecount.

Okay I thought was I was ahead on votes still at the time my bad -.- But still I was being pressured by ExO and Tube at least if I recall.



You were being pressured solely by ExO. I was asking ExO questions but I wasn't on your back so much anymore, I just wanted to know what he thought about your claims of similar play in other games. Tube was parked on Gumdrop and was busy trying to question WW over why he'd scumread Tube. Tube was wound up by the way you'd softclaimed but had also explicitly stated he'd prefer a Shining or jarjar lynch.

The ONLY source of pressure was ExO who had already voted for you. NOBODY else was on your back, it was pure panic.

Sorry but all of this from you now is just shady as hell. You're trying to claim that you were under great pressure in the thread and outright lied about having the most votes earlier. You've still got all of that suspicion hanging over you from D1, you were pre-emptively sheeping a Shining train just a few pages ago without even asking for more details and you keep repeating "I'm VT" in post after post after post. This smells incredibly bad to me.

##Vote: LightningStrike
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 08 2015 20:39 GMT
#716
On January 09 2015 04:44 Tubesock wrote:
-Celestial- You're the towniest of the town so far. Is there anyone you can make a really strong case on and push for?

Who is your likely mafia team?


Sorry, missed this.

Given the recent stuff LS has been posting he smells incredibly bad to me. If he IS town then I just don't even know what to say. Its absurd. Outright lies that were easily proven wrong, constant sheeping and I don't think he's had a single controversial opinion. Hiding behind "lets all be friends" and following the herd. His entire defence seems to be "meta, I always play like this" but at some point you've got to stop thinking about meta and start looking at what they're actually DOING. Either scum or just terribly, terribly lazy play? I'm putting my money on scum for now.


Outside of him it becomes more fuzzy. Your own comments have made me think that its unlikely both him and LS are mafia but Shining was (before all of this) one of my stronger mafia reads. So I'm not sure what to make of that anymore. I'll have to think on it.

I was convinced by jarjar until I saw his post-flip analysis which comes across as a lot more genuine as an attempt to help out town. I'm still highly suspicious of rsoultin's motives, with the fact that she didn't remove that WW vote sitting pretty on top of the pile of reasons for my suspicion, despite the explanation.

If I absolutely had to say right now: One of Shining/LS, rsoultin + 1 other, assuming three mafia. LS given all this stuff the past couple of pages is my preference out of Shining and LS right now.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 08 2015 20:40 GMT
#717
On January 09 2015 05:34 Tubesock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 09 2015 05:28 ExO_ wrote:
On January 09 2015 05:11 -Celestial- wrote:
On January 09 2015 04:59 ExO_ wrote:
On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote:

If you actually check my posts you'd see I was already calling LS out with my original set of reads BEFORE you posted something to really set me off on that path; so no, it wasn't just you.



This is a lie Celestial. Saying he's posting fluff and then giving him town credit is not calling him out. You didn't say anything significant against him until I made my big post. This isn't altering the timeline of events, nor is it misquoting you.

It's trying to get credit for FoSing someone you didn't. I'm not letting you slip by with that.



Do I seriously have to spell this out?

Ok THIS was the first thing I posted on LS:

LightningStrike just posted fluff and comments on other people's posts so far. Not really sure what to make of that honestly.


Translation: I'm weirded out by his posting.

Whilst I was writing that he posted something which changed my mind somewhat, leading me to edit with this:
Edit: LS posted as I was writing this. Last post was pretty good in my opinion, some credit there. Still don't want to make a call on him though. Neutral for now.


To explicitly spell this out: I didn't like his early junk and pointed it out as being weird, then he posted a good post which made me lean away from suspicion somewhat.


No, I didn't post anything "significant" against him because I didn't HAVE anything significant. What I HAD was doubt, which I highlighted in my first post before he posted something that made me less inclined to believe in that doubt, but it did not eliminate it which is why I explicitly said he was a null read rather than leaning town.

I notice you're no longer commenting on the later parts of this story. Is that because the stuff you're making up no longer fits then?

Again, why are you twisting what happened to make up a story? You appear to be wanting to try to make my reads a lot more extreme than they were. The only lies here are a result of your creative interpreting.



I don't know what to say. I don't think saying he was posting fluff is expressing any significant amount of doubt. This means that you were not suspicious of him, and didn't really express it until after I did.

You backed off of LS after I left the thread for a while, and didn't get back on to him until 6 posts and 12 minutes after I showed that his current playstyle (everybody's town) matched what he did in a mafia game.

Regardless whether or not you used my reasoning or your own, this is the timeline that happened. Two times after I went after LS, you followed it up. You claim the 2nd time was for different reasoning. Okay, I could see that. But then I'm asking myself, why would you lie about the initial suspicion? I don't think your first post demonstrated suspicion of LS at all.

I'm significantly more convinced LS is scum than you. But I think you did lie, or at least heavily overrepresented your initial suspicion of LS.


To -Celestial-:

Lies and such aside. I think part of ExO's point is you haven't really stuck your neck out for any read. I'd love to see you cash in some of this town cred you have and really force-ably push a case. You have to have more than 1 scum read. LS is an easy lynch. Building a case on him is a waste of time and shows no risk.

You decided to stay off a main wagon and park on JarJar. Build your case. He's pretty scummy.


I've got to eat right now but if you want me to I can run through my full thoughts on jarjar from the past couple of days when I get back if you like.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 08 2015 20:43 GMT
#718
On January 09 2015 05:28 ExO_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 09 2015 05:11 -Celestial- wrote:
On January 09 2015 04:59 ExO_ wrote:
On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote:

If you actually check my posts you'd see I was already calling LS out with my original set of reads BEFORE you posted something to really set me off on that path; so no, it wasn't just you.



This is a lie Celestial. Saying he's posting fluff and then giving him town credit is not calling him out. You didn't say anything significant against him until I made my big post. This isn't altering the timeline of events, nor is it misquoting you.

It's trying to get credit for FoSing someone you didn't. I'm not letting you slip by with that.



Do I seriously have to spell this out?

Ok THIS was the first thing I posted on LS:

LightningStrike just posted fluff and comments on other people's posts so far. Not really sure what to make of that honestly.


Translation: I'm weirded out by his posting.

Whilst I was writing that he posted something which changed my mind somewhat, leading me to edit with this:
Edit: LS posted as I was writing this. Last post was pretty good in my opinion, some credit there. Still don't want to make a call on him though. Neutral for now.


To explicitly spell this out: I didn't like his early junk and pointed it out as being weird, then he posted a good post which made me lean away from suspicion somewhat.


No, I didn't post anything "significant" against him because I didn't HAVE anything significant. What I HAD was doubt, which I highlighted in my first post before he posted something that made me less inclined to believe in that doubt, but it did not eliminate it which is why I explicitly said he was a null read rather than leaning town.

I notice you're no longer commenting on the later parts of this story. Is that because the stuff you're making up no longer fits then?

Again, why are you twisting what happened to make up a story? You appear to be wanting to try to make my reads a lot more extreme than they were. The only lies here are a result of your creative interpreting.



I don't know what to say. I don't think saying he was posting fluff is expressing any significant amount of doubt. This means that you were not suspicious of him, and didn't really express it until after I did.

You backed off of LS after I left the thread for a while, and didn't get back on to him until 6 posts and 12 minutes after I showed that his current playstyle (everybody's town) matched what he did in a mafia game.

Regardless whether or not you used my reasoning or your own, this is the timeline that happened. Two times after I went after LS, you followed it up. You claim the 2nd time was for different reasoning. Okay, I could see that. But then I'm asking myself, why would you lie about the initial suspicion? I don't think your first post demonstrated suspicion of LS at all.

I'm significantly more convinced LS is scum than you. But I think you did lie, or at least heavily overrepresented your initial suspicion of LS.


My original post was intended to imply doubt in LS. I'm sorry if it didn't come across that way. In essence I wanted LS to post more of substance because at that point to me it looked suspiciously like LS was deliberately avoiding doing so, which I disliked. The key sentence was:
"Not really sure what to make of that honestly."
Which was intended to be a prod in LS' direction saying "I don't like your posting, convince me you're town".

Call me describing it that way as "overrepresenting" it if you wish, but I didn't outright lie here. -_-
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 08 2015 22:06 GMT
#738
On January 09 2015 07:04 ExO_ wrote:
@Celestial why do you think mafia NKed trfel?


Just a sec I'm writing up a complete filter dive on LS because tube wanted a full analysis from me on my best target.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 08 2015 22:13 GMT
#742
On January 09 2015 07:08 Tubesock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 09 2015 07:06 -Celestial- wrote:
On January 09 2015 07:04 ExO_ wrote:
@Celestial why do you think mafia NKed trfel?


Just a sec I'm writing up a complete filter dive on LS because tube wanted a full analysis from me on my best target.


I was actually hoping you'd go after a more difficult target. The LS case is pretty much closed. I'm the only one defending him, and I have nothing but a tinfoil hat conspiracy.


Ugh...I've just spent like half an hour on this so far and he's by far my best read after the shenanigans on the other page. You don't want it? :-\
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 08 2015 22:25 GMT
#748
On January 09 2015 07:17 Tubesock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 09 2015 07:13 -Celestial- wrote:
On January 09 2015 07:08 Tubesock wrote:
On January 09 2015 07:06 -Celestial- wrote:
On January 09 2015 07:04 ExO_ wrote:
@Celestial why do you think mafia NKed trfel?


Just a sec I'm writing up a complete filter dive on LS because tube wanted a full analysis from me on my best target.


I was actually hoping you'd go after a more difficult target. The LS case is pretty much closed. I'm the only one defending him, and I have nothing but a tinfoil hat conspiracy.


Ugh...I've just spent like half an hour on this so far and he's by far my best read after the shenanigans on the other page. You don't want it? :-\


Well, I thought I made it clear. I think any case on LS now is a waste. The case on him, and his behavior is strong enough for all 9 of us to be on him. Shit, If I were Lightning I'd vote myself for how bad I am.

I mean there is literally 0 people towning him. I even said I'm probably ragevoting him. That means there better be 1 wagon with everyone on LS. Why build a case in this situation?

You're next I thought was Jarjar. Go after someone who we can go after D3.


Alright if we're so certain about the LS wagon for D2 I'll scrap this dive and have a look at someone else. I'll keep it in a word document in case we need it again though.

I'm going to need to work this out though before I can give you one. jarjar I didn't like primarily off the back of his D1 stuff, which I felt was largely useless and poorly thought out. His attitude post-flip though has been a LOT better and frankly I've not really been thinking ahead to the D3 lynch yet because we still have more than 24 hours of this to go, plus the full night to start thinking about D3 lynches.

I've got a reasonable feeling about Shining, but that might just be a hangover from D1. And I still don't like rsoultin's actions but I'm not sure if I can condemn because whatever I say about words vs actions her explanations seem to ring somewhat true. I've already mentioned my concerns about rsoultin earlier though when we were questioning each other after the D1 EoD flip.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 08 2015 22:41 GMT
#758
On January 09 2015 07:29 Tubesock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 09 2015 07:25 -Celestial- wrote:
On January 09 2015 07:17 Tubesock wrote:
On January 09 2015 07:13 -Celestial- wrote:
On January 09 2015 07:08 Tubesock wrote:
On January 09 2015 07:06 -Celestial- wrote:
On January 09 2015 07:04 ExO_ wrote:
@Celestial why do you think mafia NKed trfel?


Just a sec I'm writing up a complete filter dive on LS because tube wanted a full analysis from me on my best target.


I was actually hoping you'd go after a more difficult target. The LS case is pretty much closed. I'm the only one defending him, and I have nothing but a tinfoil hat conspiracy.


Ugh...I've just spent like half an hour on this so far and he's by far my best read after the shenanigans on the other page. You don't want it? :-\


Well, I thought I made it clear. I think any case on LS now is a waste. The case on him, and his behavior is strong enough for all 9 of us to be on him. Shit, If I were Lightning I'd vote myself for how bad I am.

I mean there is literally 0 people towning him. I even said I'm probably ragevoting him. That means there better be 1 wagon with everyone on LS. Why build a case in this situation?

You're next I thought was Jarjar. Go after someone who we can go after D3.


Alright if we're so certain about the LS wagon for D2 I'll scrap this dive and have a look at someone else. I'll keep it in a word document in case we need it again though.

I'm going to need to work this out though before I can give you one. jarjar I didn't like primarily off the back of his D1 stuff, which I felt was largely useless and poorly thought out. His attitude post-flip though has been a LOT better and frankly I've not really been thinking ahead to the D3 lynch yet because we still have more than 24 hours of this to go, plus the full night to start thinking about D3 lynches.

I've got a reasonable feeling about Shining, but that might just be a hangover from D1. And I still don't like rsoultin's actions but I'm not sure if I can condemn because whatever I say about words vs actions her explanations seem to ring somewhat true. I've already mentioned my concerns about rsoultin earlier though when we were questioning each other after the D1 EoD flip.


You literally don't have a 2nd scum read?


Not one as strong as the one I now have on LS. Before LS my D2 preferred lynch was likely to be Shining based on a bunch of stuff from D1, largely because jarjar had redeemed himself post-flip.

The problem I'm having now is that your earlier posts coupled with reviewing the voting pattern has got me convinced that only one of Shining/LS is scum. So I'm having a great deal of trouble matching up those two contradictory things (the read on Shining coupled with the stronger read on LS).

What are your current thoughts on any potential LS/Shining partnership or have you ruled it out by now?
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 08 2015 22:50 GMT
#762
On January 09 2015 07:21 Tubesock wrote:
I feel like any more evidence on LS is like going to the doctor when you're pregnant, getting a blood test, then going to two more doctors to really make sure you're pregnant.

You've said my tinfoil hat theory is probably not right. You're saying it implicitly by spending 30 minutes on a case on LS. I'm the ONLY one defending him. Why pick LS for a case?



I just picked it because its my strongest read after I called him out a couple of pages back. I thought you were just after a clear and concise read on someone I'm scumreading. Doesn't matter, I'll look into one of the others detailed above.


I honestly don't think your theory is totally out of it. BUT I would say that I don't find it too likely. Lots of people have been getting scum reads on each of Shining and LS.

As I understand it your argument is that unless they're BOTH mafia then the Trfel kill makes no sense, right? My counter to that would be that you yourself said that Trfel is a good player, correct? And he's played before? This would seem to imply either the mafia team has someone who has at least observed Trfel played before, but that could be anyone so its not really helpful. In any case the point is that you've identified him as a strong player; and I'm sure other experienced mafia players will have done the same.

However Trfel has also been inactive and fairly quiet for a couple of days but one of the things he DID say was that he didn't like any of the three lynches, but by the posting of other people was leaning towards the best lynch being Shining. Towards the end he was focused on the fact he didn't like the WW lynch but that's not really indicative of anything at all. However before that he was fairly clear that he didn't like any of them too much.


In this situation I think its just the simplest explanation possible, which I've mentioned before. You say he's a known strong player. He was fairly quiet but mentioned he'd try to get more active later on. The inactivity meant little chance of a doc save and because he didn't really like any of the lynches it'd cast doubt over all of the wagons. The kill is pure disruption to make us doubt the two wagons that didn't go through as well as potentially eliminate a threat that could come later if he became more active. A more obvious kill would likely give us more to go on.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 08 2015 22:51 GMT
#763
On January 09 2015 07:43 ExO_ wrote:
@Celestial

Why do you think mafia nked trfel?


Does the above answer your question? In short: main reason being disruption. Because it makes us doubt the three people up for vote on D1 because he didn't much like any of the targets.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 08 2015 23:04 GMT
#767
On January 09 2015 07:57 Tubesock wrote:

If there was 1 mafia on the lynch, then it's smarter to kill one of the ones with an opinion (framing the non mafia perhaps) and then mafia can "guide" town to killing the townie.


I can't really follow this train of thought. You're saying that if one of the mafia were up for lynch you'd want to NK one of those pushing the mafia lynch, despite it being incredibly obvious? Surely that's just hoping that someone will start to WIFOM the NK on the basis that its so obvious that it can't possibly be that simple?
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 08 2015 23:11 GMT
#771
On January 09 2015 08:03 ExO_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 09 2015 07:51 -Celestial- wrote:
On January 09 2015 07:43 ExO_ wrote:
@Celestial

Why do you think mafia nked trfel?


Does the above answer your question? In short: main reason being disruption. Because it makes us doubt the three people up for vote on D1 because he didn't much like any of the targets.


It did to a degree. Let me ask you another question. Trfel said he didn't like any of the lynches. Having reread his filter a couple times, I found something to be odd. Before the it became apparent that WW or LS or Shining was likely to die, there was only one person whoose opening post he specifically mentions as being off. He never got to really expand on it, but can you guess who it is?


Don't know, me probably based on your post here. Let me filter dive a sec.


So the people Trfel mentioned were Shining, WW and LS (which we've already discussed), HtS who he dismissed as having nothing unusual there, jarjar who he mentioned as giving a break to and never followed that up as far as I can tell, me who he described as not liking my original analysis but never followed it up and right at the end he started filter diving Tubesock but never got to finish.

I think that's all of them?
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 08 2015 23:17 GMT
#776
On January 09 2015 08:05 Tubesock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 09 2015 08:03 ExO_ wrote:
On January 09 2015 07:51 -Celestial- wrote:
On January 09 2015 07:43 ExO_ wrote:
@Celestial

Why do you think mafia nked trfel?


Does the above answer your question? In short: main reason being disruption. Because it makes us doubt the three people up for vote on D1 because he didn't much like any of the targets.


It did to a degree. Let me ask you another question. Trfel said he didn't like any of the lynches. Having reread his filter a couple times, I found something to be odd. Before the it became apparent that WW or LS or Shining was likely to die, there was only one person whoose opening post he specifically mentions as being off. He never got to really expand on it, but can you guess who it is?


That's exactly who I am pushing now. Yes, it's the only time he spoke of this person. And the scummiest thing he said about anyone.


Bit rich considering that the post was this:
On January 07 2015 06:24 Trfel wrote:
Also, I really don't like -Celestial-'s opening post. Most of the points made feel wrong to me. I don't scumread him for it, but I am rather surprised by the amount of other people who agreed with it.



And that his very last comments on anyone were actually him starting to filter-dive you to look for indicators:
On January 07 2015 07:38 Trfel wrote:
Looking into Tubesock now, I will keep checking for thoughts, especially the response to my thoughts on TheWarWaffle.

On January 07 2015 08:00 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 07 2015 07:57 Tubesock wrote:
I'm also assuming you are building a case on me right?

No, I'm reading your filter and trying to decide if you are town or scum. There is a big difference.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 08 2015 23:21 GMT
#777
On January 09 2015 08:15 Tubesock wrote:
Celestial can't be bothered to make a case on Jarjar??? His number 2 read in all his scum list posts???

When I asked him to make a case, I said make a tough one that you stick your head out. And he starts one of LS??? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA



I literally just stated that my case on jarjar was shaken by his massive improvement after the flip. Or did you miss that part? Or are you deliberately ignoring it?

You asked for a case and since you were bloody well doubting the LS read I thought it would be handy for you to convince yourself on it. If you don't want that then fine.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 09 2015 00:04 GMT
#790
On January 09 2015 08:25 ExO_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 09 2015 08:21 -Celestial- wrote:
On January 09 2015 08:15 Tubesock wrote:
Celestial can't be bothered to make a case on Jarjar??? His number 2 read in all his scum list posts???

When I asked him to make a case, I said make a tough one that you stick your head out. And he starts one of LS??? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA



I literally just stated that my case on jarjar was shaken by his massive improvement after the flip. Or did you miss that part? Or are you deliberately ignoring it?

You asked for a case and since you were bloody well doubting the LS read I thought it would be handy for you to convince yourself on it. If you don't want that then fine.


Other than LS, who are your top 2 scum reads and why?


Fine you want some scumreads? Fine.


I scumread The Shining; but the problem with this read is I seriously doubt BOTH Shining AND LS are scum because it feels like they've been bussing each other too much and too early if they are, so I'm having trouble placing both on the same team. Regardless, reasoning is as follows:
- Massively inactive for the whole of D1. Not alignment indicative in and of itself but not good.
- Piggybacked my explanation of my thoughts towards rsoultin. AND townread me for it which is just bizarre in my opinion. That explanation in and of itself was not enough to town me. Either a newbie mistake or an attempt to start the ever popular "everyone is town" thread and then hide in the background.
- Immediately called out ExO with a kind of OMGUS on the basis of him calling a potential vig shot asking "why so quick to kill?" when...you know...why not if its a good shot? Seems to want to slow the game down potentially here and sow doubt for any potential vig.
- Then goes after ExO hard despite the fact his posts, although being fairly quick one after the other, generally had some kind of decent point and analysis to them (leading me to read him as town fairly early on). Jumping about, as long as there's a decent point to it and some thought gone into it, is not inherently scummy to me (unlike my early feeling on rsoultin). But Shining was quick to label it as scum behaviour.
- Although I'm dubious of meta arguments, Shining goes out of his way to say "discard my meta". This, to me, is effectively saying "ignore this potential source of evidence" which is very, very suspicious behaviour to me. Having an explanation for difference in behaviour...fine. But outright pre-emptively asking people to discard it? Hmmm.
- The VERY NEXT POST (actually two posts later, but one was a slight edit to the previous one) he votes ExO_, admitting that this vote is partially based on meta. Which considering he just asked us to discard his own past history comes across as incredibly hypocritical.
- Makes a big deal of wanting to look at WW's argument and saying he doesn't have much time. Note that by this point the voting was a little close (4 to 3), he asks a question regarding ties. He switches at the very last second, thoroughly sealing WW's fate (at any point up to that moment someone could have changed from WW to Shining to make it 4-3 in Shining's favour and changed the outcome). I'm not sure I'd inherently believe this is scum behaviour because frankly a town would do this too considering he was up for the chop but even so its not great.
- Post-flip he started to flat out state he'd done exactly what I'D done for LS. Namely he'd been suspicious of the "lets all be friends" mentality outlined by ExO_ but was convinced by LS arguing that he'd posted similar before. That is literally what I'd done the day before, and now he's copying my actions to excuse his.
- Goes on the attack against LS, his fellow wagon, accusing him of sheeping rsoultin (which in fairness is true but even so its a pretty easy way to distract any questions away from himself).
- Then a nice big vote analysis post. Throws out a bunch of townreads on the WW wagon, firmly pinning the blame on LS, again the rival wagon. Refrains from criticising ExO, a guy who up until now he'd had nailed to the wall. Instead choosing to aim at me and jarjar. Utilising arguments that I proved false or had already explained in a massive discussion with rsoultin. Brought nothing new to the table at all.
- Later admits that his justification at EoD was "just a facade to cover voting for my counterwagon". I don't know about anyone else but I really don't see why you would even need to justify that. Both town AND mafia would vote for a counterwagon on themselves. So it looks less suspicious than outright trying to make up a reason, which to me says you're looking for excuses to make in addition to getting the vote off yourself.
- He ended up getting into a discussion where he was pointing out he agreed with a prior thing I'd said (back to the rsoultin accusations). This is a bit superfluous, was just to explicitly point out what he was parroting from me.

Since then he's only really been complaining about rsoultin scumreading him and LS together. But that's not alignment indicative because there are any number of reasons for wanting to distance themselves regardless if they're both mafia or not.


I'll post another in a bit.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 09 2015 00:10 GMT
#791
Also my next one is probably going to be my thoughts on rsoultin. Its not as strong a case as I'd like but I think its got some merit to it.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 09 2015 01:31 GMT
#809
Ok. So...rsoultin. The bulk of my case on rsoultin does not come down to individual posting analysis but by posts vs actions.


Firstly: her opening. Whilst people have argued that its not exactly out of the ordinary I didn't like the surface-level questioning going on. To quote myself:
On January 06 2015 01:32 -Celestial- wrote:
My logic is something like this: there seemed to be a lack of interest in actually identifying what someone is but more looking for anything that might indicate someone is different from the rest. A tell that just indicates that someone is a little bit different. But that could mean either mafia or a blue and you can't know which without working out a more detailed read. Who would just want to know if someone is "different"? Well, the mafia of course, because they KNOW they're scum, so anyone who is different from the rest and not one of them is a blue. So by jumping about any tells found are likely to be indicative of blues, since they already know the mafia. A VT or blue wouldn't necessarily know if certain tells were because of scum or a fellow blue; which means their hunting would feel different to this.


What it came down to for me is that, in contrast to ExO's early bouncing around which appeared to have some merit because of the quick analysis every single one of his bounces seemed to contain...rsoultin just seemed to be poking people for a reaction, any reaction. Which to me read like she already knew who the mafia were and therefore any unusual reaction would be a blue. Admittedly not the most conclusive of evidence but it was what set me on the path of being suspicious.


Ok so moving onto the second point. Her early replies. Consistently replying to people. Good. Didn't OMGUS me despite my initial read. Calm response which is good but for one she's a more experienced player so should know that OMGUS is a poor play anyway and secondly I think was the only one who was reading any scum on her? Not 100% here but I think I was, so nothing to panic about. Reads on Shining and calls him out for copying my explanation. More townie stuff. Called out Tube for effectively OMGUSing ExO. Tentatively implies a Shining vote but locks in nothing. Which isn't too bad at this stage because its only about two hours into the second half of D1. But its the first step in the long road to the D1 blue lynch. Moves the discussion onto LS but reads him as possible town due to meta.

Interestingly at this point rsoultin contradicts LS when he brings up that the case against Shining appears to be just meta. Some kind of deliberate attempt to work with LS to distance themselves from each other? i.e. LS brings up a weak argument against rsoultin's main read and rsoultin bats it down? Not sure, its possible I guess.

Later she says she's ok with LS, enough not to D1 lynch. These two things together give me a slight feeling that if LS flips mafia rsoultin might do too. But this also implies to me that Shining and LS are probably on opposite sides. So if one side is mafia the other isn't. Hence my earlier difficulty of the fact I think both of them feel scummy. That being said, rsoultin did not go through with the D1 lynch vote on Shining so maybe they could be together after all, with LS bussing Shining because Shining was in a weak position? Not sure because her case against Shining was very strong indeed. This is getting a bit convoluted. Lets move on.

rsoultin goes on to try to cross-examine Shining a bit which is good again.


THEN comes the big part. Point three...the mislynch. rsoultin parks the vote on WW to get him talking. Despite the suspicions she wants to give Shining a chance to speak, which isn't alignment indicative but only a few hours earlier she'd been citing it as her top scumread and even mentioned to Tubesock that it was likely to be her vote.

In the meantime she goes back to address the bluehunting thing. I'm not entirely sure what brought that on because the only discussion about it by that point was me saying "To me at that point rsoultin looked to me like she was bluehunting" and Tube saying that at that point he thought ExO had looked like he was bluehunting. There were no direct accusations. Her reply was well thought out anyway, but it seemed to somewhat miss the original point I'd made. I put that down to misinterpretation though.

Anyway the vote does get him talking a bit. But then posts what I found to be the most surprising comment of all:
i want to lynch shining. i will settle for ww.


Before stating that she had 20 minutes and then her vote was locked.

Ok, lets review...she had spent a long time building up Shining as a lynch target but made literally no effort to change anybody's minds. The current votes at the time were 4 on WW and 1 on Shining with 3 on LS. But at least three of those votes on WW (rsoultin herself, Tubesock and LS) were absolutely ACTIVE during this time period. Just TWO of those changed would have made it 3 on Shining to 2 on WW. Trfel was also actively on at that point and indeed later changed his vote (just a fraction after rsoultin left unfortunately). And yet rsoultin didn't change her vote; despite the fact that a large part of the reason for people even being on WW in the first place was sheeping her. She even went so far as to make an argument against Shining about twelve minutes before leaving but STILL didn't change despite knowing that people were active in the thread.

What would be the scenario if she'd changed? 3 on WW, 2 on Shining and 3 on LS. I think WW would still be lynched under those circumstances but Trfel was to later change as a result of rsoultin's comments (from LS to Shining) and given LS's sheeping onto rsoultin its quite likely a change there too. Who knows what Tube might have done? I'd already posted that I was on jarjar but I think from my posts it was fairly obvious I was looking for a reason to change; though one might argue its not fair for her to know that. And ok so she couldn't have known Trfel's change was coming but there still doesn't appear to be a strong reason not to change to try and drive the vote switch.

My thoughts on why: If rsoultin is town then unless she is incredibly sure that LS is less mafia than WW there appears to be no reason not to change votes to Shining and try to encourage people to do the same. The only way LS gets lynched is if nobody switches off him and only rsoultin switches to WW (I'm going to just assume that Shining would have voted LS as a counterwagon here, though jarjar was still to vote too). There was a very high chance of other people switching with her vote switch since the WW train started entirely BECAUSE of her original vote. Then rather than attempting to go for a read she had already detailed in full...and indeed reinforced by her last analysis post before leaving...she just left the vote on a relatively weak pressure vote train that had started.


So then she's away. Then the flip. Then back in with pointing fingers over the whole thing. That isn't necessarily alignment indicative because everyone was annoyed by the blue kill, but as the chief architect of that kill the attempts to shift the blame were somewhat over the top. Two people were already heavily implicated (Tube and LS), but rsoultin explicitly calls out those on the periphery (myself because of a wasted vote and Shining who was transparently counterwagonning, despite claiming otherwise). We had some very long discussions about that whole thing which were...kinda resolved kinda not I guess? Difference of opinion on approach to voting I suppose, but reflecting on the votes themselves it was actually a lot closer and more likely to change around the time rsoultin was on than she implied in those discussions. Sure there was one vote on Shining, but since extra votes would be coming from WW's total it would flip around fast.


Since then its been a lot of talk about Shining and things like that. Nothing much alignment indicative. Calling out tube for not posting, that kind of stuff. Back to the routine of hunting.


But in short my feeling comes from the way the whole of Day 1 was approached and concluded. She opened with a lot of surface-level probing at people which wouldn't have shown very much at all apart from possibly given away that someone was something (which could be blue or scum). Then moved onto Shining hard for most of the day only to suddenly turn around and dump the vote on WW as a pressure vote. And then leave it there, even though people were in thread to change their vote, despite acknowledging she had a better read on Shining. Conveniently away for the vote itself she then comes back outraged that the blue was lynched.

Of course this could have happened if she is mafia or town. Mistakes happen. But as a narrative I can't help but get a mafia vibe off it. Hard push on Shining but getting no blue reads off him. So instead take a shot at an inactive player, WW, to try to flush him out as well; you've already got a case on Shining to fall back on (lets leave aside the issue of whether Shining is involved in this for now, it hurts my head to work it out). Make a token effort to further push your case against Shining but keep the vote and consequently the pressure on WW. You've already made an excuse for likely missing EoD so you can afford to just afk now and see where the chips fall; if you get a sudden blue reading on anyone you can always come back in at the end to argue your case and try to flip it onto someone else. After WW claims blue, celebrate because job done. Come back in afterwards to complain about everyone having lynched a blue whilst you weren't around and you're away smelling of roses.


Alternatively it could just be a crap situation of a mislynch going through because of a judgement call on a vote change and people sheeping it and being unwilling to change votes. Either way I don't think this is entirely without merit.

In short: I like rsoultin's analysis, but I'm not sure about what she's actually doing with it. The two do not seem to align. She's made several arguments against this and I've bought some of it, but as a whole the thing still seems extremely fishy; and as a more experienced player I'd expect her to be less blatant anyway.



I should go. I'm exhausted, been here for hours now (this post literally started when I posted that last one so its been about an hour twenty to an hour and a half of solid writing and digging up the details I could find, I'm wrecked so I'm sure there's a mistake or two in here; but you wanted an analysis of someone I was leaning scum with, here's one here).
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 09 2015 01:33 GMT
#810
Anyway, there you go, ExO. You wanted some stuff and there it is.

Tube wanted it too but I believe he's already tunneling on me on the basis of NK analysis so...yeah.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 09 2015 01:35 GMT
#812
Also...of course...nothing personal rsoultin. Its just how I've seen your overall posts go. I know we've discussed it in bits and pieces over time but as a whole I'm still suspicious.


Anyway, goodnight.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 09 2015 01:52 GMT
#814
Oh and I'm sorry I can't answer more questions tonight. Thing is I've been actively writing and getting bombarded with stuff for something like six hours straight now by a bunch of people (I started addressing stuff at like quarter to 8 or something, its ten to two in the morning right now and I've only moved for a twenty minute break to get food). I'm exhausted and my mind is totally fatigued. I badly need a rest.

I'll try to make sure I've not missed any by checking over tomorrow. Goodnight.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 09 2015 15:26 GMT
#879
On January 09 2015 11:58 Half the Sky wrote:

Finally as I have just mentioned with Tubesock and discussing Silverarte, I'd also like to see (when you are back in thread) some discussion of Rasputin's D2 activity.. You obviously think she is scum, so I would imagine there is some reasoning behind her current/latest actions where you feel that read has not changed.

So when you return I'd like to see that when you can.


rsoultin D2 hasn't been doing much of suspicion for me because, again, its actions vs language for her for me. And at the moment we're at the point of "language" whereby its just questioning people, and her questioning has been good. Jumping on my train isn't alignment indicative particularly (despite the temptation for me to OMGUS it) because there's a bunch of people on it right now anyway. I'm not going to outright condemn someone just for voting for me.



On January 09 2015 12:21 The Shining wrote:

@Celestial, one townread is one townread. 2 townreads is a couple. Explain to me how 3 reads leaning town so early in the game is not a bunch? As I mentioned in the post you responded to, I've learned that Mafia, especially Day One, likes to hide behind those big posts with a couple of town reads to hopefully gain some credit. It doesn't escape me that your 3 Town reads were:
Trfel - NK. He didn't like your big post but never got to elaborate on you. Confirmed town.
ExO - Aside from me not liking his early attacks with too little follow through for my liking, most everyone here liked his play and the points he made. I'm almost willing to chalk it up to my newb play and meta bias from past games with him that I seem to be the odd one out but it's convenient that he's a Town read for you, too. It's almost too easy to sheep multiple players believing ExO is town.
Shining - Me. I had already been under suspicion for my questioning Soultin and HTS. It's another free town read for you as scum. Why were you one of the ones Town reading me for the same posts everyone else was scumming me? Because you expected my wagon to pick up more. Once I flip town, you can say "I told you so, guys, let's stop mislynching" and try to lead the discussion. Sort of what you did with WW. Although you didn't Town him, you did go "against" his lynch, somewhat. However, after looking at the Voting Thread and your filter, this troubles me:


Show nested quote +
On January 06 2015 23:33 -Celestial- wrote:
On January 06 2015 23:19 rsoultin wrote:
Okay. Parking my vote on the waffle or now. It took prodding to get him to post in the first place...after boldly proclaiming he was getting a ton out of people's wording without any follow-through as ExO pointed out...and then his post was on just one of HTS'. Since then (and that was early in the day) he's done diddly.


I tend to agree with this assessment to be honest. I had WW down as leaning scum right from his early attempt at analysis but its just gotten drastically worse since then.


See, you go from scumming WW to saying it has gotten worse. However, once WW's train received it's 3rd vote, you started backpedaling. Probably to have some deniability on the wagon you wanted to go through?

Show nested quote +
On January 06 2015 23:53 Silverarte wrote:
##Vote: TheWarWaffle


Show nested quote +
On January 07 2015 01:43 -Celestial- wrote:
Ok I've taken the time myself to read over the evidence that LS presented and...actually its pretty convincing. Although I think meta reads, especially based on just one game, can easily be manipulated he IS playing this very similar to the way he has in the past and it IS from three separate games so...yeah well done there.

I can't in good faith vote LS anymore. His playstyle is just too consistent between townie games there and it has severely shaken my confidence on it. I don't really know playstyles very well of course but those links were fairly convincing. Of course LS could be deliberately selecting evidence but it doesn't feel like that, it feels more like a genuine attempt at convincing. Not a D1 lynch for me anymore.


I'm going to take a chance and remove my vote from there and put it on someone else. Its between WW, Shining and jarjar for me, as per my reads earlier. I agree with Tube, WW isn't the best candidate. His opening post was weak and he's said nothing since then but that isn't enough for me to lynch him at this early stage. I'd like to see more from Shining before I could put a vote down there. So I guess I'm going with jarjar for now since I have to vote for SOMEONE and frankly I really don't like his posting at all, it looks really scummy; was also the second highest read on my list so...

##Unvote

##Vote: jarjarbinks




On January 07 2015 01:18 Tubesock wrote:
-Celestial-

Why is Rsoultin more scummy than Gumdrops, Trfel, Silver, and me? I get why you town ExO so hard, and HTS but not the next 3 on your list?


I think I'm still somewhat tainted by rsoultin's original impression on me. I really, really didn't like what appeared to be bluehunting (the reasoning for which I posted a little while back, I can quote it if you like). Though she has improved somewhat since that I'm still wary.

Gumdrops I've just flat out not seen enough from to make much of a judgement call. Same with Trfel. But both of them posted something that appeared to be reasonably thought out so slight leanings towards town. Trfel also stated in advance he wouldn't be around for a bit and Gumdrops just seems awkward about posting. I can't condemn either of them to scum for that.

Silver I have literally no idea about, as I posted. I'd appreciate anyone else's thoughts because to me it just appears to be a mix.

You didn't start great which is why I leaned you towards scum, but I didn't find your opening to be as scummy as rsoultins was and you've both improved in my eyes to the point where you're both back to neutral. But since rsoultin started off with slightly more damning posts you're slightly more in the townie direction than she is.


All of your "lynching WW is silly" was after the wagon already picked up speed. I've already explained why you'd throw away a vote as scum once the lynch already looks secured. Also, as EoD got closer, I asked my question about ties. At that time, it was WW's 4 to my 3. Your question was:

Show nested quote +
On January 07 2015 08:55 -Celestial- wrote:
On January 07 2015 08:54 Trfel wrote:
In the case of a tie, the first person to receive that number of votes would die.


So even if someone other than WW got a vote he'd still die?


This was your opportunity to figure out if you needed to join one of the main wagons or not. If ties end in no lynch, you'd vote either WW or myself in order to ensure a town mislynch. Also, can I point out(since I filter-dove you pretty hard) that you also scummed Tube, but sheeped his WW read? It's quoted above but you said "I agree with Tube, WW isn't the best lynch for today."

And I just hit Celestial's massive post on my case. First, a case on LS when we've all beaten it to death and now me, pretty much the only other viable wagon besides yourself(who you can't vote) and LS(possible scum partner)? I guess I'd pick the easy way, too, if I were scum. Let me finish reading up but I'm interested to see how many of these bullets are parrots off of others. Also, you're scumreading me after I scumread you. Convenient.

More to follow after reading Celestial's case against me and everything after.



Why are you flat out lying about the course of events? Did you somehow miss the part that RIGHT AFTER rsoultin posted about voting WW I posted my set of reads in order of town to scum in which I cited my most likely scum were LS, then jarjar, then you, THEN WW?

I DID feel that the WW lynch was silly because I felt both you and jarjar were better lynches. But I did NOT feel strongly enough about it to change the course because I still had some suspicion on the guy. AND I've been scumreading you since then too. Proof:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?page=17#322

This post listed my town to scum reads in order of most likely on the scale. At which point you had been scumreading ExO as far as I know, not me. So actually, YOU'RE the one scumreading me AFTER I scumread you. AND you're lying about my views on WW, jarjar and yourself. AND you're deliberately misrepresenting me to get on a train that you had absolutely nothing to do with but is a nice easy target. "Convenient."


But you know. Whatever. I don't care anymore. I spent six hours last night dealing with condescending attitudes from people when questioning me. And now all three of my scumreads have found reasons to get on that train. Nobody is listening to a goddamn thing I say evidently. People are flat out lying and misrepresenting everything I say and not a single person apparently cares to actually notice that.

I was slightly wound up last night by people's attitude but coming in and seeing MORE of the same has just completely turned me off playing. Do whatever you want. I'm not doing this anymore. You've treated me like shit with the condescending attitude and I'm severely hacked off. Go ahead. Lie some more about me. I've played this game completely straightforward but people insist on twisting stuff around.

I am done with this. AFK.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 09 2015 16:00 GMT
#882
Oh. And if you MUST know...I'm the Doc. I put the N1 save on ExO because he was my top townread, he's posting good stuff but is also kinda quiet so I figured he might be an easy target for the NK since the bigger talkers are the more obvious medic saves.

Yes, it was trying to double-guess the mafia team somewhat but it seemed a good idea at the time.

Not that it matters now anyway.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 09 2015 16:13 GMT
#886
Also nice to note that this is the SECOND blue train that a bunch of people have been on.

rsoultin noteworthy for being the one who started the first and laid some groundwork for this one right after citing Shining as a top scumread on both occassions. And Silver for diving in here, dropping the vote on each occassion, and then largely disappearing again.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 09 2015 16:15 GMT
#889
I'm fed up of this anyway. Vote me or don't, I'm tired of this game. If I survive the day I'll at least make sure to be on for the Night so I can try to save somebody, I'm not going to just throw the game away outright, but I'm fed up of trying to explain to people my reads only to have them go "nooo" and then misquote stuff at me.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 09 2015 16:17 GMT
#891
On January 10 2015 01:15 Tubesock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 10 2015 01:13 -Celestial- wrote:
Also nice to note that this is the SECOND blue train that a bunch of people have been on.

rsoultin noteworthy for being the one who started the first and laid some groundwork for this one right after citing Shining as a top scumread on both occassions. And Silver for diving in here, dropping the vote on each occassion, and then largely disappearing again.


Assuming rsoultin is mafia. You really believe she *knows* who 2 of our blues were before they claimed?


No, I didn't outright say that. But it still makes me uncomfortable, especially given jarjar's story outlining how she might have played D1 (providing excuses for not being around EoD whilst actually being around to see the blue claim).
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 09 2015 16:19 GMT
#893
In any case the people on both wagons have been: Silver, rsoultin, Tube and LS. For the most part quick to jump on the trains in question too. I could buy a couple of sheeping cases there, but not everyone just blindly jumping on.


I'm going for a shower now. Guess I'll look back later after EoD to see if I have to send in my night save or not. Bye.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 10 2015 23:52 GMT
#1061
Apparently I didn't get lynched. Unfortunately now I'm bloody useless because one of two things will happen this night:
1. Mafia kills me
2. Mafia roleblocks me (assuming they have a roleblocker) and just parks it there for the rest of the game

Given that I think the first is more likely...goodbye and good luck.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 11 2015 00:11 GMT
#1069
Roleblocked as expected. What a bloody nuisance. -_-
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 11 2015 00:40 GMT
#1072
If anyone is wondering why I put the save on rsoultin: she's been talking a lot and in the last few pages has been saying not to lynch me D3 because its easier to just ignore me.

Consequently if they weren't actually going to kill ME then the next obvious target would seem to be her. Which quiets a voice saying I shouldn't be lynched D3. Expect the mafia to push my lynch hard today.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 11 2015 00:40 GMT
#1073
Or at least that's how I read her posts.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 12 2015 00:16 GMT
#1132
On January 12 2015 07:30 Silverarte wrote:
(Nothing personal Celestial! And a belated happy birthday!)


Of course its not personal. And you're actually very early, it only just ticked over midnight here for me. Thanks anyway.


Anyway since I have no way to prove credibility to anyone unless the mafia doesn't roleblock me and I hit a lucky save I'm just throwing a post in to say hi so I don't get modkilled for inactivity. I'll remember to put up a vote when everyone decides what train is going today so I don't get modkilled for that either but don't expect too much activity today. For one there's not a lot of point (since I can't prove my innocence) and for two I'm not spending a lot of time on here on my birthday. ;P
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 12 2015 01:44 GMT
#1140
Wait, Silver claimed Cop? Well that's interesting...I missed that earlier and actually gives me something to think about. Originally I was just going to sheep whatever but maybe I can still work this out. She's been very quiet so far which I guess tallies with having something to hide, right from the beginning in fact, her filter is virtually nonexistent. Seems somewhat strange to have three blue roles in a newbie game, possible I guess. I mean WW flipped blue and I know I'm blue so I'm looking at Silver and trying to work out if its a legit claim.

Seems like a very good time to claim either properly or just to throw us off the scent honestly (as opposed to my losing my temper). With the game being a bit precarious a mafia claim now lets the whole game become imbalanced. How would a mafia play it though...claim two town investigated to try to hide? Claim one town for legitimacy and one mafia to provide them with cover? Hard to say. :-\

Your claimed checks aren't bad, but they're not amazing either. They reek of trying to "confirm townies" rather than seek mafia; and you already pointed out the weakness of that with respect to a possible Godfather. So I guess my first question to try to tease this out is: You want to elaborate on why you picked so "safe" checks, Silver?
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 12 2015 18:17 GMT
#1173
Well I'm off out very very soon (its today my birthday, not yesterday) for a meal.

Anyway. Very quick read rundown of everyone, been lurking a bit:
- Silver I'm very dubious of the claim. Like I said the other day since I know I'm blue and since WW flipped blue it makes me cautious. But on the other hand with the tiny filter I don't know what to do with her. Not really a viable lynch just yet but I've got a very bad feeling about her.
- Tube been asking good questions and giving good answers. Town.
- ExO I've been pretty highly townreading most of the game but the whole Godfather discussion going on the past couple of days has thrown a spanner into that a bit. Really not feeling good on him right now as a result but could be thread influence on my feelings here, which could come from anywhere.
- scott is replacement. He's been asking good questions and seems to genuinely be trying to figure out the game.
- JJB as I've pointed out before I was originally heavily scumreading. But ever since the D1 lynch he's really stepped up his game. Pretty sure he's town at this point but I guess he could be duping me.
- HtS is much like Tube. Asking good questions, giving good answers.
- Shining I've never really liked the play of and had suspicions on all game which haven't gone away. Think this is our best chance to secure a mafia lynch.

Therefore:
##Vote: The Shining
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 13 2015 03:01 GMT
#1269
Some thoughts from my perspective. Bloody hard to play as mafia side in your very first game of forum mafia.

Anyway...I have to give a shoutout to rsoultin. You were the only person I actually felt pressured on my actual scum moves from. I wasn't lying in that mafia QT...everything I did D1 was basically 100% what I'd have done as town; although admittedly I probably was slightly less likely to move off the JJB vote in response to the blue claim than I would have otherwise been (that being said...I'm not sure I'd have changed or not even so, I was very much with LS on that point in that it just didn't feel right). Ok...it might not have been very GOOD town play but I can honestly say its pretty much what I would have done for my first game. Frankly I had zero reason for not playing as I would have played as town because honestly everyone seemed on the wrong tracks D1.

For D2 rsoultin put some nice pressure on me to the point where I genuinely felt threatened, all credit to you there. That was kinda scary. What totally threw my game and made me want to give up though was the bloody six-hour inquisition I was later subjected to. It felt meaningless as it felt like 95% of what I was being called out on was stuff that I would have done whether mafia OR town (because basically all of my D1 filter is what I'd have said as town). After that point I literally didn't give a damn about the game and I flat out wanted out. I was on the point of getting myself modkilled just to get away. I was pissed off and utterly fed up of playing. On top of the being called out for what I'd do as town thing there was the outright lies about my post progression. That was unbelievably frustrating and frankly I didn't want to play anymore. Though I eventually decided that I wasn't going to throw HtS under the bus like that by just outright giving up but I didn't have an out, so I thought about how to do damage.

Honestly without HtS there I WOULD have forfeited so thanks. Sincerely.

I'd been toying a little in the mafia QT with the idea of claiming a role (I mention claiming doc at 436 and cop at 462) but nothing serious. At that point I was just looking to throw out whatever I could to do as much damage as possible since the train felt fairly solid. Then Geript gave me the push to claim doc at 481 and...well the rest is history. It kinda blew the game open.

Honestly I wasn't expecting anything at all to come from that claim and I was exhausted. I was surprised that I'd apparently survived the train on D2, so I figured I'd just stick to posting like I was sulking. It gave me a reason for just keeping the hell out of the thread honestly, even if it made me look terrible. I figured I wouldn't last another day either way plus everyone had massive suspicion on me so absolutely everything I posted wouldn't be believed except to analyse for clues for mafia. Basically I was fatalistic...I knew I'd flip red on D3 and frankly it seemed an auto-lynch so I wanted to absolutely minimise the damage that flip would do by just basically not talking. I think we'd discussed as an outside possibility the idea of playing it as "mafia left me alive because they can just nullify me" but I honestly didn't believe that was a saving move. I was 100% dead as far as I could see. But as time went on everyone got on the "lets not lynch him D3 because its what the mafia would want!" train and I absolutely wasn't going to oppose that but I was pretty blown away that was actually happening.

It honestly still felt I was under a serious risk of a last minute train right up to the end. With that in mind I decided to just stay quiet, post minimally, and with my last set of reads (because I had to post SOMETHING) I figured that the best play was to vote on Shining whilst citing JJB as town. Doing those pretty heavily implicates JJB as mafia because people think I'm mafia and it just comes across as sloppy and desperate mafia play to anyone watching me, when in reality I was just trying to keep anyone from deciding to train on me (since by this point I'd pretty much outed myself, but nobody outright decided to lynchtrain me for it apparently). Ultimately though I felt it was a good setup if the game went further. By voting for Shining after wasting a vote on JJB D1 I tried to make JJB look really bad, so even if everyone decided last minute to switch and string me up, I might at least take JJB down the day after with me.

I absolutely should have been lynched D3 to be honest. No question. I'm actually pretty blown away that I survived.


Oh and a quick note to geript's analysis:
@geript: I put a reasoning down for a save on rsoultin because according to the role descriptions people are not informed if they're RBd. So I felt like I had to explain how I knew I'd been RBd. Probably unnecessary on reflection but still.


Wrapping up thoughts are that rsoultin really picked away at the scummy parts of my play D2 but then I got hammered by stuff that felt totally unrelated to that. Or more specifically either addressed stuff I'd have done as town anyway, rehashed arguments that rsoultin made and flat out lied about what I'd done. That was exhausting and outright depressing and frankly has made me feel like I don't think I'm going to play another game. I should have pushed to get back in the game more after D2 but honestly I was almost totally spent and sick of it all. I actually got chest pains as a result of that six hour session, broken only by dinner, it was horrible; and whichever side I'd been on you WOULD have found me scummy at that point because I was totally exhausted and posting garbage. So yeah, I pretty much gave up on trying to convince anyone of anything and was ultimately extremely surprised to find myself given a free pass from a simple destabilisation claim.

Also I think I had a tendency to get somewhat wrapped up in planning ahead. On D1 I had two or three different plans that had developed from what had been happening in thread as a way to get rsoultin mislynched because right throughout we (mafia team) were scared of a medic save on rsoultin, her seeming the obvious target. In the end it didn't matter because there wasn't a medic. But I was very caught up in the whole "getting her to look guilty" and perhaps a little tunnel visioned on that objective.



Anyway. My thanks:
- rsoultin. Out of everyone you genuinely threatened my more scummy actions and attitude on D2. Good reads, even if the medic claim totally threw you for a loop. My D1 play was pretty genuine, but I started losing control of the situation somewhat when you started picking away at the genuinely scummy stuff I was starting to post D2 after the lynch. Also trying to NK you was SCARY because we were terrified of a wasted kill.

- HtS. For keeping me in the game. I outright would have just quit if you'd not been around to chat to at that point. Also my confidence that you could have carried even if that lynch had gone through is unshaken. You're a better player than you give yourself credit for.

- kitaman27. Thank GOD you found us a replacement because I was looking to be lynched and a lynch and a modkill on two of the mafia would have really hurt after a great start of a blue lynch. Also to scott for stepping up for us.

- geript. For giving me the push I needed to actually go through with the idea of claiming something, and for recommending it be a doc claim. When I posted those thoughts I was just throwing out ideas, wouldn't have actually done it without encouragement because at that point I was just spent to be honest.

- sicklucker. Just there tons and provided a ton of good advice to the whole mafia team. Much love.



Still not sure I want to play ever again (that D2 stuff really, really got me down honestly; I don't know what to do about this whole thing now). But it was nice to win the game more or less on my birthday.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 13 2015 03:05 GMT
#1270
On January 13 2015 09:47 Half the Sky wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 13 2015 09:39 geript wrote:
On January 13 2015 09:37 sicklucker wrote:
Now you know why the mafia qt was about the size of the game

Hey, I did not post that much in mafia QT. I'd guess that 90% of QT was Half and Celestial talking to each other.


Yea, two of us being the same timezone I think helped with coordination and such, we just kept at it.


That was a pretty massive help. That being said it left holes in coverage somewhat. And we had to be careful not to make it super obvious when we were coordinating on things. But I think we got off to a decent state where we'd each have our own thing to post about, but we'd be able to run it past each other first. So it was less obvious.

Advantages and disadvantages.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 13 2015 03:22 GMT
#1273
In any case I think HtS played great throughout. scott did the best he could but he'd been left severely in the hole from the lack of posting from Gumdrop. My D1 play was just more or less townplay, then I just got totally walled with questions D2 and gave up; so basically terrible.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
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