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On December 14 2014 05:30 rsoultin wrote: ##unvote ##vote: KSC
^ My concession. Those on HF or Tube who don't really think they're scum, please jump on. I'm actually making an post on KelsierSC right now.
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Ok, I'm pretty suspicious of KelsierSC.
The first real thing he does in the game are these posts, which I'm sure everyone is familiar with:
On December 09 2014 08:46 KelsierSC wrote: So i have noticed something with this set up. If you are scrooge just claim.
On December 09 2014 08:55 KelsierSC wrote: Ah ignore my scrooge comment i misread one of the roles
On December 09 2014 09:30 KelsierSC wrote: So i think fecal is scum, we played a game together as town and early game he was very try hard, essentially Kush made a set up/mechanics comment and fecal went back to the setup, worked through all the permutations and then asked Kush to explain. Super town super eager.
this game i make a set up comment, then retract it and ff doesn't bat n eyelid. All he does is talk to slam about sumo. Which is pretty pointless. Like "herez an excuse nit to scumhunt" it doesn't feel towny at all This feels really weak to me, especially now that KelsierSC linked the game that he refers to. I don't understand how he can possibly find Fecalfeast the slightest bit scummy for this. It feels like he is really forcing this read from nothing, while potentially identifying a stupid Scrooge (which happened...) and appearing towny.
On December 09 2014 09:12 KelsierSC wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2014 09:10 Holyflare wrote:On December 09 2014 09:05 KelsierSC wrote: I'm liking holyflare now, i didn't like his post about how he wasn't going to post, seemed like a good excuse to lurk. But he has backed it up with actual pressure.his pressure on nb is actually strong and the explanation is good. It also feels like town hf to me.
Do you know how I play as mafia? This seems pretty baseless if you do and even more so if you don't. i saw you play town and this feels like town, I'm happy with the read for d1 Same with his early townread on Holyflare. Even Holyflare says that it is weak, and I agree. We've already established that Holyflare is really good at playing Mafia, and that makes it really hard to identify him. So no, a meta case that early into the game isn't very good. This post again lacks substance, and feels like he is making a read for the purpose of making a read.
On December 09 2014 09:51 KelsierSC wrote: Hf, bats have you played with ff much? What is his d1 like normally? This post seems to take even more force out of his meta case on Fecalfeast. Is it really a good argument, if he isn't sure himself what Fecalfeast's day 1 play is like?
KelsierSC and I seem to be the only two people who read batsnacks as town for the post he made on Half the Sky. (Since then, batsnacks' play has made me much more suspicious, but that isn't the point of this post). The weird thing is, KelsierSC read batsnacks as town because he agreed with batsnacks' post. The validity of batsnacks' post has since been shown to be very questionable, but KelsierSC hasn't changed his stance.
KelsierSC then spends several posts focusing on Alakaslam. Here is his explanation.
On December 09 2014 10:37 KelsierSC wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2014 10:33 Holyflare wrote: You should also stop wasting your time trying to read slam and just try and make him interact with you about this game instead. He can actually play mafia and says insightful things. I'm not reading slam. But the free town passes he is getting are good info. especially people who call him semi town.. Wtf is that Later, he goes back on this and says that this didn't end up working out. More words, less analysis.
His scum list seems to be changing without that much explanation. He says that he would happily vote 27nb, but doesn't include her in his lynch list. And his inclusion of Vivax in the lynch list for bad reads seems strange. Bad reads don't necessarily make someone scum, it is the intent behind them. And these reads are seeming forced.
Later, he comes back with a new post, and Vivax isn't mentioned in his scum reads at all.
The point about his changing stance on ritoky is also interesting. He puts ritoky into his town circle, then adds him to his lynch list, saying he has done absolutely nothing. His explanation of this is that he forgot he had him in his town circle. Shouldn't his reads be the same every time, even if he forgot all of his previous reads? If he was trying hard to make real reads, they would. If his read changed due to new information, that would be good, but the only new information he provided is that a few people scumread him. "I forgot" and "others are scumreading him" are not good reasons to change a read like that, he should at least investigate the case himself.
In conclusion, I would be happy to lynch KelsierSC. Moreso than Fecalfeast, anyway. Obviously it's not certain, but it seems better than anything else.
Now I will take a look at GlowingBear's complete case on Holyflare.
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Any thoughts on my KelsierSC case? Would there be enough votes to carry the lynch, or are Fecalfeast and Holyflare the only options?
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On December 14 2014 06:15 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 06:09 Fecalfeast wrote: Yeah keep in mind, if I get lynched, who used night kill analysis to scumread me. Keep in mind who is defending HF by swinging their votes from tubesack to me. I'm a proponent of the church of GlowingBear now. I do not fear dying for my god. Let's just assume for a moment you're town. Why are you playing this game? You complain whenever there's something new to read, you don't try to find scum, and when you do it's by you being a passive prick that wants to die, saying that scum are the people pushing you and your argument for that is your alignment post-flip. The thought that you might be town scares me. Let's assume for a moment that Fecalfeast is mafia. He's playing terribly in that respect too. He's got a huge wagon on him, and he just says he doesn't want to play and that he shouldn't have signed up for the game. That's true no matter his alignment.
He obviously is too busy to play this game. That doesn't make him town or mafia, that makes him inactive.
There are better lynches.
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Fecalfeast, good to see you posting. Thanks. I'll take you up on that offer, hopefully others will as well. You are on a short leash, though.
I'm still working through your case, GlowingBear. I read slowly, and I hope you would agree that you would rather that I read it well than read it poorly. When I finish, I will share my thoughts. Thanks a bunch for typing it up and consolidating it, though.
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Ok, here's my reponse to GlowingBear's case.
I don't really like reading too much into people's entrances. Partly because they are really easy to pick apart, partly because I'm really bad at entering a thread myself. His post doesn't say much of anything, but it does provide good advice to people and a standard to hold him to later (which he hasn't entirely met, as many of his posts are in fact pretty useless, but it's next to impossible to play Mafia with zero wastes posts). I'll leave Holyflare as null for this point.
I believe batsnacks did the same thing, picking on Half the Sky while ignoring Vivax for the same argument. It isn't inherently mafia. Though it is suspicious that he goes after 27ninjabunnies so aggressively without much reasoning to back it (to be fair it is early in the game, but still). Perhaps he is fishing for a reaction, but he never wavered at all.
Being suspicious of the wasted voters seems weird. Same with his counter push on ritoky, it seems more forced and a reaction to being pressured. Still though, he obviously can't be super suspicious of everyone with a wasted vote, as that is way too many. This doesn't provide a scumread on froggynoddy for the wasted vote, so I don't think there is much contradiction there. It doesn't feel conclusive, but it does seem suspicious.
The last point is pretty funny.
In the end, I'm not completely sold. It's a good case and I do like it, but I think that KelsierSC seems a bit more likely to be mafia than Holyflare. I will switch vote to Holyflare if that will cause him to be lynched instead of Fecalfeast, but otherwise KelsierSC seems like the best vote for now.
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I could potentially be convinced to switch from KelsierSC to Holyflare, but someone will need to convince me.
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On December 14 2014 07:34 Vivax wrote: Lynch HF I would love to. Please tell me why, other than linking GlowingBear's post.
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Switching to Holyflare because of a gut call. It's hard to explain. If someone really wants me to, I can try though.
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On December 14 2014 07:41 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 07:35 Trfel wrote:On December 14 2014 07:34 Vivax wrote: Lynch HF I would love to. Please tell me why, other than linking GlowingBear's post. Cause I read his post and it convinced me, nothing else really. What did you think of my criticism of his post? I'd love for someone to show me why I am wrong.
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On December 14 2014 07:41 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 07:35 Trfel wrote:On December 14 2014 07:34 Vivax wrote: Lynch HF I would love to. Please tell me why, other than linking GlowingBear's post. Cause I read his post and it convinced me, nothing else really. Vivax, you're so analytical, and you've been among my top townreads all game.
I posted my analysis of GlowingBear's post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/472628-tl-mafia-lxix-carol-of-the-bells?page=129#2562
If that is all that convinced you, what do you have to say about this analysis? Where am I wrong?
It just seems weird that you have been providing evidence and reads for stuff all game long, and here you just say this one post convinced you, even when I asked for you to elaborate. Not sure what I'm supposed to think.
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On December 14 2014 07:47 liancourt wrote: why did truffels move his vote? Last game, my first TL Mafia game, I made two big scum calls. I was wrong on both. I suppose I've lost a good bit of self confidence at Mafia.
Now I presented a case that (I feel) is strong, but isn't foolproof. And it instantly gathered tons of support. Meanwhile, several veterans and people that I trust (namely GlowingBear and Vivax) are sticking with the Holyflare lynch. That makes me worry that the Mafia are using my case to avoid a Holyflare lynch.
Still though, it's really weird that Vivax hasn't provided anything of his own on GlowingBear.
I am happy with either lynch. It's really hard to call. Not voting for KelsierSC doesn't mean that I don't want to see him lynched. Him being in the hospital does make me more reluctant to lynch him, though, and I am okay with giving him a day to redeem himself (same with Fecalfeast).
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If KelsierSC changes his vote to Holyflare, it would be a tie, and I believe KelsierSC would still be lynched.
Vivax, at some point I would really appreciate a response to what I mentioned earlier.
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Phwew. I'm so relieved now.
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On December 14 2014 08:03 sicklucker wrote: Some good rng there ksc was clearly drugged out of his mind and could have been either To be fair, my case was heavily, if not entirely, based on pre-hospital posts.
I do hope for a speedy and complete recovery for KelsierSC.
On December 14 2014 08:04 rsoultin wrote: Lolol
NOW will ppl bother looking at friggin GB?
He insisted we should keep the vote between FF and HF I want to see him respond to my comments on his Holyflare case.
The Holyflare case clearly did not start as an attempt to avoid KelsierSC being lynched. GlowingBear posted his case before I posted mine. It might have been used that way, but it certainly didn't start that way.
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On December 14 2014 08:08 ritoky wrote: I would like everyone to post who they think I should shoot tonight and why. Unless I'm missing something, please don't do this. If the mafia know who you are planning on shooting, they can roleblock you if you choose a mafia, or let you shoot if you choose a town.
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On December 14 2014 08:31 ritoky wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 08:29 liancourt wrote:On December 14 2014 08:18 rsoultin wrote:On December 14 2014 08:16 liancourt wrote: hey rit shoot hf Dude, no. KSC knew he was being lynched. Why would he go, no, no, don't kill HF, kill FF? if HF was mafia with him? He didn't even try to derail the lynch. anyone could have switched and caused shennanigans but no one did...why? i'm inlcined to think hf is mafia too. And it's really scummy that he comes right after the flip. What was he doing not defending himself or trying to convince others to vote kel or ff to save himself. Instead he lurked until the flip and suddenly comes in. HF's game thus far has been really underwhelming and a HF that makes IRL excuses and being underwhelming non pushing and just overall having a bad game is really hurting town and i'm really inclined to think that it's scum HF playing like this. He poses a big threat to town if he's scum, and right now he's been practically useless. the guy who started the wagon jumped off 4 mins before the end to try to cause shennanies.....even after he made a really good case....i am so confused by that
On December 14 2014 07:54 Trfel wrote:Last game, my first TL Mafia game, I made two big scum calls. I was wrong on both. I suppose I've lost a good bit of self confidence at Mafia. Now I presented a case that (I feel) is strong, but isn't foolproof. And it instantly gathered tons of support. Meanwhile, several veterans and people that I trust (namely GlowingBear and Vivax) are sticking with the Holyflare lynch. That makes me worry that the Mafia are using my case to avoid a Holyflare lynch. Still though, it's really weird that Vivax hasn't provided anything of his own on GlowingBear. I am happy with either lynch. It's really hard to call. Not voting for KelsierSC doesn't mean that I don't want to see him lynched. Him being in the hospital does make me more reluctant to lynch him, though, and I am okay with giving him a day to redeem himself (same with Fecalfeast).
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On December 14 2014 08:48 sicklucker wrote: Like I want to post a list of 3 people who I think mafia will kill tonight (they have 2kp) Is this a good idea? I just want to help them decide if they should come out right before the end of night and not risk dying thoughts? I don't think it's a good idea. Trust other people and let them make their own decisions. I could be wrong, though.
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On December 14 2014 11:18 The_Templar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 11:16 The_Templar wrote:On December 14 2014 11:12 LightningStrike wrote: The Templar I got a question for you Earlier in the thread you used a RNG thing to find scum and landed on KSC who turned out to be Mafia. No can you see if you can use another RNG and find the next scum? Haha, I don't think it works like that. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=23433611If me talking about RNG was a reliable method to finding mafia, 23433611 mod 19 (remaining players in the game) is 18, meaning it would be Trfel. Shucks, you got me.
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