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Requizen
United States33802 Posts
I have no more information. That was my summation of his posts before that point. He only posted a little bit afterwards, none of which changed my mind. He talked about the Wave/Soniv/LordT dynamic but it didn't make me think him more town or scum in any direction. So you can reread the same post, or I can type it out in different words again. mordek is likely asleep as it is 1 here. | ||
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Cixah
United States11285 Posts
Ketchup's roleblock claim is odd. I'm not going into speculating roles, but I still think the Scum don't have a role block and Ketchup's RB on him was likely due to a town using his power at night. I'll have to go back and check fliters, but that seems the most likely to me. This is because it makes too much sense for the RB, assuming scum had one, to be on me for the easiest Mislynch NA. Requizen, your post pattern feels weird. You've gone from wounded sheep to a toothless blood hound barking at at the wind. I'm unsure what to think yet, but there is still some merit to your Scum read IMO. I really need alaric to post. It's going on too long at this point for me to not think something is up there. Questions for today: Soniv, Red or Not? (this is for everyone). Wave, Why did you move from Ghandi? Asmo, Talk to me about Req and OWB. I get your feeling on Soniv, it makes sense in one of my scenarios but I need to know more about the others. Who are Scum #2 and #3? | ||
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Cixah
United States11285 Posts
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
As for your scenario I am 90% sure you are wrong. I asked but I am fairly certain your thing can't be roleblocked---it's not a power technically. Yes it's possible scum buried their rb and ketchup is lying for towncred but again you're thinking up convoluted scenarios in the face of way mor easily explained scenarios. Scum almost always have a roleblock. Like every game. Town had absolutely no reason to protect ketchup. Again this is one of those things where unfortunately you're just wrong. | ||
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
jcarlsoniv (3): ketchup, WaveofShadow, AsmodeusXI ComaDose (2): jcarlsoniv, Alzadar, GhandiEAGLE (1): ketchup (1): Requizen Not voting (5): people Currently, jcarlsoniv is set to be lynched. Day 2 ends in Remember that voting is mandatory. All active nightactions are roleblockable. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
Talk to me. I got an hour of sleep cause my guy wet the bed at 5:30 so keep me awake while I attempt to study or something | ||
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Cixah
United States11285 Posts
I'm not sure yet. I really want Soniv to say almost anything at all, Alaric too. Way too many people being silent and not actually being in here. It is stupid oclock in the morning so i'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt. My idea on the RB not being used on me is more than likely scum not knowning that they could. Leads me to think that 1) there aren't any vets on Scum or 2) I'm being baited hard. Soniv feels red, especially of late, but I need a post from him to confirm it. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On October 14 2014 20:31 Cixah wrote: I'm posting and working at the same time. I'm not sure yet. I really want Soniv to say almost anything at all, Alaric too. Way too many people being silent and not actually being in here. It is stupid oclock in the morning so i'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt. My idea on the RB not being used on me is more than likely scum not knowning that they could. Leads me to think that 1) there aren't any vets on Scum or 2) I'm being baited hard. Soniv feels red, especially of late, but I need a post from him to confirm it. How would soniv posting help you to confirm him as red? If he is obviously he'd be trying to post something that doesn't look scummy when he comes back so unless there's something very specific or a tell you're looking for, I don't know what you hope to gain exactly. As for the RB, I'm a vet and I never would have thought to use the RB on you. I really think that you're overthinking it. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
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Cixah
United States11285 Posts
There is an AWFUL lot of red posting in this thread for me. Everyone has something that makes them red to me. While that's obviously not possible, there seems to be no one consistent in who their list is. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
In your case if you're having trouble figuring out who is really red then I guess determine what you find scummy about everyone and who the worst offenders are (ie who to vote today---may I humbly suggest soniv lol). | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
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Alaric
France45622 Posts
 When the day/night gets resolved I'm either asleep or on my way to bed, then the thread explodes and I have to catch up before I post. Mfw there's a (127) next to the thread's name this morning. Also I'm pretty slow to post so it's hard to say meaningful stuff from work (I'd give Ghandi a semi-pass for this but I have no idea of his hours).Quick recap of my focus as I read through: "Crap, my mostly-scum red on LT was wrong - time to pressure-vote Coma, wait, he's bandwagoned on, avoid that - Asmo's next... but he just made a very sensible post - Soniv's got a good case against him but he's part of the terror trio, ugh". I'll answer a few things to sort my thoughts and decide where I go from there. -- Roles: I think speculating is no-good atm. Aside from Wave telling us what's to be expected from "standard" setups, we'd probably give scum information, especially about the vigilante since he's a one-time use. If he shot, he's a VT, and scum would gladly know that there's effectively one less blue threatening them, less so that we have a medic (I think Tolkien was killed by scum, he was polarising but at that point I think shooting Wave or Ghandi would have made more sense if you wanted to sack an "unknown"). Fwiw I didn't receive anything about being protected or shot at (was that your question, Cixah?). -- Reads I have yesterday: And that I'll spoiler because they're kinda obsolete now, ugh. + Show Spoiler + My main read was Tolkien, but because I kept doubting it (see my post on the goddamn vet trio) I didn't want to commit to any of them. He was trolling people and putting himself in the line of fire, which bred infighting and created doubt, but also compelled people to react and give information. My main argument for his towniness was that it didn't seem worth taking so much flak (and risking bandwagons against him) if he was scum, he could certainly create discord otherwise. On the other hand he was so assertive in telling us we were wrong and rubbing it into our faces that he seemed to be throwing his weight just about as much as Wave, just in a less explicit way. Basically I couldn't decide whether Tolkien was town putting himself in harm's way because he believe he was experienced enough to put a stop to a push against him, or very bold scum using our inexperience against us. Well... now I know. And I'll be curious to ask him about it after the game, because he showed so much confidence from his posting. Why he wasn't followed was because of the belittling way he made his assertions, and he must have known that as a vet- so, why did he keep doing it? At that point my "scum likeliness" scale went Tolkien > Wave > Soniv, but even Tolkien I wasn't ready to 100% commit to lynching him, hence why I wanted to examine others. Next read was Asmodeus, because even if he expresses himself he seldom posts (like me I guess), he seemed to sheep Soniv/Wave and even me (after the vets called me town) a lot, and when he first moved to Moonbear it looked more like taking someone else's idea than his own initiative. His case against Soniv made me reconsider though. I wanted to examine Coma who barely posts too. Mordek doesn't either but as much as I don't want to tunnel vision I don't want to spread too much, and Mordek contributed more lately. Then there was a bandwagon on Coma earlier today which made me not want to pile up. -- Random stuff: ketchup, I think Requizen is town. His posting at least is totally in line with what I expected from him, and as much as I hold his investigative abilities in regard, on the contrary I'm not sure how good he'd be at manipulating people (I did give him a handbook of how to look town to me in my D1 posts but I don't believe he'd have been able to manipulate me using that ). eg. he was trying to figure how the game works at first and his posting seemed different from 2nd half of D1 onward because he was getting more comfortable. Now he's involved and contributing.Req, I guess ketchup is jumping you because he has a strong town read on me. Which makes me also wonder why he didn't react at all to Wave saying I was off his list. Wave, are you saying I'm not "certified town" anymore, or do you think I'm scum? I think the former, it's just for clarification. On October 14 2014 09:38 Dandel Ion wrote: the mafia team has a magical magic ability that allows them as a team to (attempt to) kill a person every night. This is independent from their individual roles (although somebody still has to actually do it). Mod question: Does that mean if we roleblock the scum attempting the hit, the "mafia KP" won't go through either and we won't lose anyone that night? -- Noon's reads: With a perfectly timed Dandel vote post so I know who's getting bandwagoned on. Wave looks more town today because we made actual progress and as long as his post is (I had to go back and read it again while typing because I'd forgotten a bunch of it), the way he went about ketchup (and the fact that it was a roleblock claim that made him switch, a pretty set-in-stone argument) is very detailed and reasonable, that's clearly town-thinking (and you're finally being more assertive). Also that he said he thought I'd die tonight. Counterpoints to these arguments: + Show Spoiler + - he's the mafia roleblocker and made a case on ketchup knowing ketchup would smash it with just "I was roleblocked tonight", so the more effort he put into it the more towncred he gets when ketchup clears himself. - did he think I'd die because he thinks I make good points/go in the right direction? If he thinks that as scum, and wants to combine his vet status with lack of focused arguments to lead the town nowhere, then it would be weird that he didn't kill me (remove the guys who think clearly, so your shenanigans don't get exposed by contrast with them). TL;DR: if Wave being scum requires him to be trying to WIFOM us, then he's probably town. Even moreso as a vet who pointed out how ineffective WIFOM is. Asmodeus is pretty much cleared for me after his very solid case on Soniv. Not only because it's contributing (same as above, if I need WIFOM to find it weird, then it's probably genuine), but also because this time Asmo didn't use arguments gleaned other places (basically how he started against Moonbear: it was his vote, but Wave's arguments). He's autonomous, makes his own reads, and while I was very suspicious of him up to that one post, other people (like Requizen and Alzadar) have started meh before shaping up. Asmo town. It also "helps" Ghandi, in that if Soniv is indeed scum, then why would he go after Ghandi twice, and especially today and so hard? Town-Ghandi would make a good mislynch because of how hard people have been against him every time he was mentioned (Ghandi's basically the town's "default lynch until someone better shows up" at this point). If Ghandi's scum, on the other hand, then bussing him to keep Soniv alive as a vet is probably better for the mafia. Plus they switched to ComaDose afterwards so it doesn't really look like bussing. On the other hand it wouldn't make sense to panic and start bussing someone so early in the day, when votes will most likely move around. Back to neutral on Ghandi... for now. Unlikely that both Ghandi and Soniv are scum, but doesn't imply that if one flips green the other is 100% red. I was going to avoid Coma because bandwagons and he has posted but people moved toward Soniv since, and I don't like said post. He's making a list and throwing around vague information, with just the no-risk opinion of "Ghandi's the most likely scum" immediatly followed by a "... maybe. He could just be noob!", eg. Coma doesn't give reads at all and refuses to commit to anything. On the other hand, Coma was excused for the week-end and it's only been a day since, and Alzadar was singled out too for weird posting patterns of providing information but no meaningful analysis of it, and he's shaped up since. Day 2 still has 36 hours to it so it's not like I have to lynch now. However... ##Vote: ComaDose Soniv's under scrutiny already, so I'm looking at you and I want answers/contribution. Not "now" now, because I know it's stupid o'clock in Canada, but the clock is ticking and I can't be as lenient as Day 1. TL;DR: my scum reads are Soniv/ComaDose, with Mordek/Ghandi being suspicious but not as sold on them. Ketchup/Wave/Asmo/Cixah fairly town to confirmed town. Undecided on Alzadar/Req/owb. Now I'm going to go and get lunch because it's 2 PM here and writing takes some time. | ||
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mordek
United States12704 Posts
On October 14 2014 15:07 Requizen wrote: @ketchup I have no more information. That was my summation of his posts before that point. He only posted a little bit afterwards, none of which changed my mind. He talked about the Wave/Soniv/LordT dynamic but it didn't make me think him more town or scum in any direction. So you can reread the same post, or I can type it out in different words again. mordek is likely asleep as it is 1 here. This is correct guys I go to bed 10pm EST lol. I have one more page to catch up on. As I've said multiple times, Jeff is my #1 scum read. Behind him are Coma/Alz/Soniv. I've been trying to do the pre and post flip associations like Wave did and figure out if it's possible to get a really good sense which of those 4 are probably opposite factions. I was under the impression if we flip Jeff we gain the most information or am I off base here? | ||
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Alaric
France45622 Posts
I've taken some work time to write that so don't expect another post for 5-6h (I'll try to read a bit but prob not posting again till I'm home). I should post more this evening, although it's a bit hard for me because I post slowly and my ideas can be made obsolete by stuff posted while I type (so I delete then restart from scratch which delays, etc.). What do you think about my stance on Ghandi based on the current Soniv situation? Do you still want to lynch him? Sounds like you went from "I want Ghandi lynched, but if noone follows me I'm fine with Soniv; Asmo meh" to "Asmo's def town, noone touches him! Also Mommy wants Daddy dead (again)" but no word on Ghandi. | ||
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mordek
United States12704 Posts
While owb has been posting about as much as me, I think he's brought up solid points each time so in terms of Alarics list I put them in town while I'm not sold Asmo. | ||
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
On October 14 2014 21:19 Alaric wrote: Mod question: Does that mean if we roleblock the scum attempting the hit, the "mafia KP" won't go through either and we won't lose anyone that night? if he is roleblocked, he is also blocked from carrying out the nightkill. | ||
onlywonderboy
United States23745 Posts
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Alaric
France45622 Posts
On October 14 2014 22:15 Dandel Ion wrote: if he is roleblocked, he is also blocked from carrying out the nightkill. This probably sounds inane for the current game, but I'm curious now: if there is a jailkeeper vs a non-roleblocker mafia or a serial poisoner, how do you resolve the game? The jailkeeper will block the other guy every night so he can't die, but they'll tie everyday for the lynch. | ||
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