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Season of the Witch Mafia - Page 77

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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yamato77
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
11589 Posts
September 10 2014 19:52 GMT
#1521
Unless real acolyte is dead, there's no reason for him not to CC sylencia. And how would mafia know either way for him to make a play like this?

Thus there is no reason for syl to be the lynch.

Oats in particular has had a lackluster game since the very beginning and is pushing horrible lynches. I'd like to see him dead.
Writer@WriterYamato
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
September 10 2014 19:52 GMT
#1522
Also, geript, I don't think your understanding of how soup works is correct. If they ever do a single successful soup and then mess up in the same night, they get revealed. It's not like a "one guess free" thing. Like N1 they did the witch kill to get a necro rolecop off rather than souping for no roles.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
September 10 2014 19:54 GMT
#1523
On September 11 2014 04:51 geript wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 11 2014 04:27 slOosh wrote:
Also, timewise this game is like D3, you hit 10 pages after a week of play. I'll concede that several of your town games have many many posts, but your scum games also had decent sized filter (9 pages for the Game, ended D5, 7 For PTP Demon's Run lynched D3). So it's not as clear cut as that.

Basically Robik and rayn (whom I recently trust) both had issues with you so I need discussions to trust you now.

There's a big difference when I'm consistently hitting 10-12 in 2-3 days in my town games and getting 6-7 maybe in 3 days in my scum games. In the Game I had a stacked mafia team which carried the fuck out of me despite me trying to bus the fuck out of my team. You'd be surprised how good filter length is as a judge of my alignment.

Right, I'd say the same of me but I've learnt over time that it doesn't carry as much weight as I think it does.

To be clear you think Syl is town at this point?
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
September 10 2014 19:56 GMT
#1524
On September 11 2014 04:51 slOosh wrote:
Could you help me out here? It's like Syl did the "imma claim" and you guys all figured out he claimed acolyte before he said so. What post am I missing?

Oh nvm I found it.
ritoky
Profile Joined March 2011
United States6851 Posts
September 10 2014 19:56 GMT
#1525
On September 11 2014 04:51 slOosh wrote:
Could you help me out here? It's like Syl did the "imma claim" and you guys all figured out he claimed acolyte before he said so. What post am I missing?


Pre-claim:

On September 09 2014 16:28 Sylencia wrote:
LM: Voting for the person I find my personal top scum read especially early on the day is in no way scummy - sloosh is 2nd on my list but I've been saying it since yesterday that I find geript to be the most scummy. If sloosh is worse in other's eyes and people want him dead, naturally I'm willing to switch.

Anyways if you guys are going to vote for me I can very easily claim, since I'd rather take the bullet tonight than have a better role die, and if I do survive it's still a win for town considering it's still more or less a confirmed townie. In addition, because of the fact the necromancer only knowing of the role of someone still alive, it'd be impossible to fake claim the role which was discovered because that person is still alive and able to CC.

Rayn: will respond to you when i get home, since I'm leaving work now


Claim:

On September 09 2014 20:19 Sylencia wrote:
Anyways:

Claim or die geript?

Show nested quote +
On September 09 2014 18:34 geript wrote:
There's no role he could have that he'd consider claiming period. Like there's no point.

Acolyte isn't a role you ever claim.


Nah the brilliant part is that I didn't read who was the Inquisitor until now (to prevent myself from giving away information consciously or unconsciously) so that if the time came I would be able to role claim safely. On that note, our inquisitor is still alive and well.

Alive or dead, I don't care but to me it's up to the scum team to decide what happens during the night. What goes down N2 is probably the most telling thing in terms of the scum that are left.

"Why would you not read it when you first got it, other than the fact you'd be doing this to role claim later because that seems like horrible play?"
- Keeps me from being too biased given my knowledge of the inquisitor (too sheepy etc)
- Mathematically only a 1/12 chance of the inquisitor being lynched. Given that town players also act less scummy in general, that chance of being lynched decreases. This helps me justify not looking at it.
- If they died N1, I'd check. Given we know the martyr died, there was no need. I was going to hold on to whether or not I'd read it for another 12 hours because the final 24 hours of the day are always more important but yeah, since I have 3-4 votes on me my hand was kind of forced.


Confirmation:

On September 10 2014 01:46 Sylencia wrote:
Yes rayn, I'm confirming the claim - why would i write that entire explanation otherwise -_-

Also geript, it's really not hard but I don't really want to go into PM details since I'm sure that's gonna end up being grey territory. You read your role. You can obviously see more text but you don't read it. Wow, hard.

Take for example the PM I sent out for Guilty:

Show nested quote +
Godfather
You return green to alignment checks. Any player tracking you will return nothing. Visiting a watched player will not return your name in the results. You can deliver the night kill.
Team: VayneAuthority, WaveOfShadow, IAmRobik
QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/QyuKJyZXWALCu


You could read the first line and stop actively knowing that you wanted to limit your information.



Other than that, my post and one of geript's earlier posts says everything I think needs to be said. If you got a more specific question than "what am i missing?" i can try to answer it. but to me it is blatantly obvious. 1) pre-claim threat 2) claim under pressure from someone you read as scum 3) claim with over 2 days left in phase 4) claim makes 0 sense 5) don't use your "confirmed town" status to help town at all

what more do you need to think a claim is fake?
“When interest is at variance with conscience, any distinction to make them friends will serve the hollow-hearted.” -Henry Home
yamato77
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
11589 Posts
September 10 2014 19:56 GMT
#1526
They would have had to have targeted Koshi for a dead player to be the Acolyte and them know it.
Writer@WriterYamato
yamato77
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
11589 Posts
September 10 2014 19:58 GMT
#1527
Oh, I love lynching geript btw, but he's not mafia.
Writer@WriterYamato
ritoky
Profile Joined March 2011
United States6851 Posts
September 10 2014 20:00 GMT
#1528
On September 11 2014 04:56 yamato77 wrote:
They would have had to have targeted Koshi for a dead player to be the Acolyte and them know it.


what other role would you claim if you're mafia feeling nervous that you're about to get rolled?
“When interest is at variance with conscience, any distinction to make them friends will serve the hollow-hearted.” -Henry Home
yamato77
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
11589 Posts
September 10 2014 20:03 GMT
#1529
One more damaging to counterclaim.
Writer@WriterYamato
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
September 10 2014 20:05 GMT
#1530
On September 11 2014 04:52 slOosh wrote:
Also, geript, I don't think your understanding of how soup works is correct. If they ever do a single successful soup and then mess up in the same night, they get revealed. It's not like a "one guess free" thing. Like N1 they did the witch kill to get a necro rolecop off rather than souping for no roles.

Let's say they guess:

Marv role 1
Palmer role 2
Hapa role 3

It checks down the list in order. So if Marv is role one, then he dies and it moves to Palmer. If Palmer is role 2 he dies and it moves on to guess 3. If hapa is role 3 then all 3 people die.
If Marv is role 1, then Marv dies. If Palmer isn't role 2, then it stops there and the Palmer miss will be announced. So claims give mafia a free shot to get 2 or more NKs which are unable to be prevented in any way.
The witches don't get revealed just the one misguessed role. That's why it's so important to lynch a witch today in order to be able to win.
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
September 10 2014 20:06 GMT
#1531
On September 11 2014 04:54 slOosh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 11 2014 04:51 geript wrote:
On September 11 2014 04:27 slOosh wrote:
Also, timewise this game is like D3, you hit 10 pages after a week of play. I'll concede that several of your town games have many many posts, but your scum games also had decent sized filter (9 pages for the Game, ended D5, 7 For PTP Demon's Run lynched D3). So it's not as clear cut as that.

Basically Robik and rayn (whom I recently trust) both had issues with you so I need discussions to trust you now.

There's a big difference when I'm consistently hitting 10-12 in 2-3 days in my town games and getting 6-7 maybe in 3 days in my scum games. In the Game I had a stacked mafia team which carried the fuck out of me despite me trying to bus the fuck out of my team. You'd be surprised how good filter length is as a judge of my alignment.

Right, I'd say the same of me but I've learnt over time that it doesn't carry as much weight as I think it does.

To be clear you think Syl is town at this point?

By PoE yes, but mainly because of a culmination of other things, not based on things he's done. He still has a decent shot at being scum imo, but there's no way to lynch him right now regardless so we have to find the next best option.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
September 10 2014 20:07 GMT
#1532
Ehhh I'm looking at Syl's claim and stuff, and I don't see how it exclusively has to be mafia. I'm reading it as town making a poor play. I mean, the thing about acolyte and not reading the role info so he doesn't accidentally slip who inquisitor is? I can totally see town doing that. I find it extra hard to see a scum fake claiming that and then putting that piece of information in. It's like, authenticating at how off the wall it is.

I think as mafia you could fake claim a handful of the other ones.

Ehh I think it's confirmation bias where you say ok Syl is mafia, does his fake claim make sense? Yes I can see how a mafia fake claiming acolyte could be benefitial to mafia but it doesn't necessarily mean that Syl is that mafia.
ritoky
Profile Joined March 2011
United States6851 Posts
September 10 2014 20:08 GMT
#1533
On September 11 2014 05:03 yamato77 wrote:
One more damaging to counterclaim.


acolyte is incredibly damaging to counterclaim, if someone counterclaims you and they have made some things obvious in their filter, it potentially becomes an instant 2 for 1 trade; coupled with the fact that the witches likely know someone else's role as well from last night. 3 for 1????? how is that not damaging?
“When interest is at variance with conscience, any distinction to make them friends will serve the hollow-hearted.” -Henry Home
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
September 10 2014 20:09 GMT
#1534
On September 02 2014 21:19 Palmar wrote:
Soup: Instead of using the Witch Kill, any member of the Witch's coven can instead drink a cursed Soup. The Witch will take a sip, then name a player and a role, then drink again and repeat the process.
  • What this means is the witches will match players to roles, as many as they like. Each correctly matched player will die. The Soup kill goes through any protection and cannot be stopped. If the Witch guesses a role incorrectly, the Witch's identity will be revealed, along with the target in this format: "playername the witch tried to kill targetname the [incorrect role] but failed". However, if first the Soup target is incorrect, the witch will not be revealed and the message will instead read "a witch tried to kill targetname the [incorrect role] but failed". The Crusader will not be allowed to make a revenge kill if killed by Soup, and the Martyr will not have an opportunity to save anyone from the Soup kill.


yamato77
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
11589 Posts
September 10 2014 20:10 GMT
#1535
On September 11 2014 05:08 ritoky wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 11 2014 05:03 yamato77 wrote:
One more damaging to counterclaim.


acolyte is incredibly damaging to counterclaim, if someone counterclaims you and they have made some things obvious in their filter, it potentially becomes an instant 2 for 1 trade; coupled with the fact that the witches likely know someone else's role as well from last night. 3 for 1????? how is that not damaging?

If you are acolyte and made it obvious you are an idiot anyway.
Writer@WriterYamato
ritoky
Profile Joined March 2011
United States6851 Posts
September 10 2014 20:11 GMT
#1536
like i said earlier, maybe i do have some confirmation bias; maybe i am wrong and equating terrible play = mafia, hence why i moved my vote. that said i don't think i am wrong. and i have had pretty amazing reads as town in my 3 most recent games and been talked down off them. so this time i am hesitant to back off my read.
“When interest is at variance with conscience, any distinction to make them friends will serve the hollow-hearted.” -Henry Home
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
September 10 2014 20:13 GMT
#1537
On September 11 2014 05:11 ritoky wrote:
like i said earlier, maybe i do have some confirmation bias; maybe i am wrong and equating terrible play = mafia, hence why i moved my vote. that said i don't think i am wrong. and i have had pretty amazing reads as town in my 3 most recent games and been talked down off them. so this time i am hesitant to back off my read.

Right. You could very well be right. But geript is right in the sense of we are really close to deadline and I don't think we are able to come to a definitive conclusion of the Syl matter, and so we are coming up with a good contingency plan i.e. back up lynch.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
September 10 2014 20:14 GMT
#1538
Oh shoot missed your haruRH vote. Hrmm.... man my reads have been changing pretty drastically.

Are the lynch options essentially boil down to "they aren't playing the game"? Or do people have more objections of them?
ritoky
Profile Joined March 2011
United States6851 Posts
September 10 2014 20:15 GMT
#1539
On September 11 2014 05:13 slOosh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 11 2014 05:11 ritoky wrote:
like i said earlier, maybe i do have some confirmation bias; maybe i am wrong and equating terrible play = mafia, hence why i moved my vote. that said i don't think i am wrong. and i have had pretty amazing reads as town in my 3 most recent games and been talked down off them. so this time i am hesitant to back off my read.

Right. You could very well be right. But geript is right in the sense of we are really close to deadline and I don't think we are able to come to a definitive conclusion of the Syl matter, and so we are coming up with a good contingency plan i.e. back up lynch.


hence my vote on haru, which i feel is a way better place to be than geript. geript probably my top town read in the game right now.
“When interest is at variance with conscience, any distinction to make them friends will serve the hollow-hearted.” -Henry Home
ritoky
Profile Joined March 2011
United States6851 Posts
September 10 2014 20:17 GMT
#1540
On September 11 2014 05:14 slOosh wrote:
Oh shoot missed your haruRH vote. Hrmm.... man my reads have been changing pretty drastically.

Are the lynch options essentially boil down to "they aren't playing the game"? Or do people have more objections of them?


my criticism of haru is that he is lurking and only begins actually doing things when people accuse him. then we get a sudden burst of activity, then he vanishes. he also seems to lack significant investment in his reads. i don't really feel he cares right now who gets lynched.
“When interest is at variance with conscience, any distinction to make them friends will serve the hollow-hearted.” -Henry Home
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