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Guilty Mini Mafia - Page 130

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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KelsierSC
Profile Blog Joined March 2013
United Kingdom10443 Posts
August 26 2014 22:57 GMT
#2581
On August 27 2014 07:56 Xatalos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 27 2014 07:56 KelsierSC wrote:
On August 27 2014 07:55 Xatalos wrote:
But yeah... The worst case scenario is that we mislynch today and Onegu is modkilled + flips town and we lose 2 more during the night. That would leave us with only 2 remaining town and basically a certain loss. Especially if both the Masons die, it's just hopeless. Although in that situation SK might be aiming at scum since scum would have the advantage in that situation. We'd still be in dire straits.


we would have 3 town in that situation I believe.


5 - 3 = 2?


10 of us left.

we lose 2 town to lynches/modkills

we lose 2 town to the SK and the mafia.

that gives us 6 left
Zerg for Life
WaveofShadow
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Canada31495 Posts
August 26 2014 22:58 GMT
#2582
On August 27 2014 07:55 turtlevine wrote:
If Onegu makes a last-minute return to thread to avoid getting modkilled, I vow to vote him on the spot and prevent him from living out this day.

Actually planned on posting this and forgot

And I don't think I will ever seen Vayne lurk to a modkill?
twitch.tv/waveofshadow ||| Winner of AHGL's So You Think You Can Cast! ||| Juicy Dad for lyfe ||| 'idk i get a kick out of stupid things' - Jarms Yarng
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 26 2014 22:58 GMT
#2583
Actually yeah there could be 2... But 3 seems clearly like the most likely option.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
KelsierSC
Profile Blog Joined March 2013
United Kingdom10443 Posts
August 26 2014 22:58 GMT
#2584
On August 27 2014 07:57 yamato77 wrote:
How do you guys know how many mafia there are?


3 mafia for a balanced set up with this many players.

4 mafia and a GF would probably be unfair
Zerg for Life
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 26 2014 22:59 GMT
#2585
On August 27 2014 07:57 KelsierSC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 27 2014 07:56 Xatalos wrote:
On August 27 2014 07:56 KelsierSC wrote:
On August 27 2014 07:55 Xatalos wrote:
But yeah... The worst case scenario is that we mislynch today and Onegu is modkilled + flips town and we lose 2 more during the night. That would leave us with only 2 remaining town and basically a certain loss. Especially if both the Masons die, it's just hopeless. Although in that situation SK might be aiming at scum since scum would have the advantage in that situation. We'd still be in dire straits.


we would have 3 town in that situation I believe.


5 - 3 = 2?


10 of us left.

we lose 2 town to lynches/modkills

we lose 2 town to the SK and the mafia.

that gives us 6 left


Oh yeah true I miscounted how many were left atm.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 26 2014 23:00 GMT
#2586
Since we have Masons, Jailkeeper and possibly more 2 scum would be underpowered I think.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 26 2014 23:01 GMT
#2587
And yeah 5 anti-town with 13 players seems like too much as well.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
yamato77
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
11589 Posts
August 26 2014 23:01 GMT
#2588
On August 27 2014 07:52 Xatalos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 27 2014 07:51 yamato77 wrote:
LYNCH

HAPA

I GIVE YOU 100% SEAL OF CERTAINTY

HE IS NOT TOWN


Can you explain more?

His whole posting spree yesterday was a large attempt at getting discussion moved away from lynching him. He played the WIFOM game and attempted to downplay the suspicion on him as a waste of time. Yet his contributions to the scumhunting he so valiantly called for have been weak at best. He basically ignored everything that everyone has said about VA and his lynch in that time frame and just reiterated his "case".

Never believe a strong town player when they tell you they are just playing badly.
Writer@WriterYamato
VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
August 26 2014 23:02 GMT
#2589
dont worry guys im coming home now

plz read my filter next time said I had a long work day today be there in an hour.
I come in for the scraps
KelsierSC
Profile Blog Joined March 2013
United Kingdom10443 Posts
August 26 2014 23:03 GMT
#2590
That is why I am reluctant to lynch Hapa, I understand that he is not playing town. A lot of people think he is the SK.

But if he does flip town we will be in a position with 6 players left with 3 town, 1 kinda confirmed town (yam)

if we lynch onegu then we are 7 players left with 4 town, 1 kinda confirmed.

I need to do more math on that but I think the second scenario is better for town.
Zerg for Life
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 26 2014 23:04 GMT
#2591
On August 27 2014 08:01 yamato77 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 27 2014 07:52 Xatalos wrote:
On August 27 2014 07:51 yamato77 wrote:
LYNCH

HAPA

I GIVE YOU 100% SEAL OF CERTAINTY

HE IS NOT TOWN


Can you explain more?

His whole posting spree yesterday was a large attempt at getting discussion moved away from lynching him. He played the WIFOM game and attempted to downplay the suspicion on him as a waste of time. Yet his contributions to the scumhunting he so valiantly called for have been weak at best. He basically ignored everything that everyone has said about VA and his lynch in that time frame and just reiterated his "case".

Never believe a strong town player when they tell you they are just playing badly.


Hmm... Actually it's a valid point that it feels weird for someone like Hapa to downplay himself as town. Or to even apparently not be very interested in solving the game in the first place.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
yamato77
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
11589 Posts
August 26 2014 23:04 GMT
#2592
If it weren't for GB I would say the masons aren't town, but his play as scum in the last game wasn't nearly this bold and he basically led the lynch on Rob.

Ugh.

I am confident Damdred is town.

I feel less confident about WoS/Kels/Xat/VA but I have reasons to think they are town.

Onegu basically has to be mafia. And Hapa is certainly not town.

That leaves me with 1 incorrect read. Who is it?
Writer@WriterYamato
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 26 2014 23:06 GMT
#2593
On August 27 2014 08:03 KelsierSC wrote:
That is why I am reluctant to lynch Hapa, I understand that he is not playing town. A lot of people think he is the SK.

But if he does flip town we will be in a position with 6 players left with 3 town, 1 kinda confirmed town (yam)

if we lynch onegu then we are 7 players left with 4 town, 1 kinda confirmed.

I need to do more math on that but I think the second scenario is better for town.


Tbh if we mislynch today I think we lose either way (most likely) since we'd be down to around even numbers with scum+SK and scum especially would have a major advantage in that situation. I've been in that situation a lot in SC2 Mafia (the setups there generally always contain 3 Mafia + 1 SK) and I think like 95% of the time town loses.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
KelsierSC
Profile Blog Joined March 2013
United Kingdom10443 Posts
August 26 2014 23:08 GMT
#2594
Dama just to answer this

On August 27 2014 07:53 Damdred wrote:
Except vayne hasn't voted and could get mod killed himself. You both think VA claim is probably right. but you want to kill him anyway when we think we have the sk dead to rights anyway? Yeaaaaa

maybe both of you are mafia together since all a sudden you guys seem the best of pals when kel said he'd want to do the opposite of xata maybe the kel wagon has a shot


You need to read my analysis on why I thought a VA lynch might work even if he is town ( the analysis was based on faulty logic though) I still think he is real and now I will def not lynch him.

I don't think at any point in that I was best of pals with Xat, I was basically analysing to the thread. I still think Xat is scummy.
Zerg for Life
yamato77
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
11589 Posts
August 26 2014 23:08 GMT
#2595
I am pretty sure we're going to get two non-town deaths with the night post if you all just listen to me.
Writer@WriterYamato
Damdred
Profile Joined July 2014
15669 Posts
August 26 2014 23:09 GMT
#2596
I know it is a new concept.... instead of trying to math your way to a win and clutter the thread actually play the game and kill the one likely to flip red or flip sk.

I think hapa isn't town so obviously that's where i am
KelsierSC
Profile Blog Joined March 2013
United Kingdom10443 Posts
August 26 2014 23:12 GMT
#2597
On August 27 2014 08:06 Xatalos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 27 2014 08:03 KelsierSC wrote:
That is why I am reluctant to lynch Hapa, I understand that he is not playing town. A lot of people think he is the SK.

But if he does flip town we will be in a position with 6 players left with 3 town, 1 kinda confirmed town (yam)

if we lynch onegu then we are 7 players left with 4 town, 1 kinda confirmed.

I need to do more math on that but I think the second scenario is better for town.


Tbh if we mislynch today I think we lose either way (most likely) since we'd be down to around even numbers with scum+SK and scum especially would have a major advantage in that situation. I've been in that situation a lot in SC2 Mafia (the setups there generally always contain 3 Mafia + 1 SK) and I think like 95% of the time town loses.


Alright so if we get to this 7.and it turned out onegu was town.

Hapa,VA,Kel,Yam,Xat,Dam,WoS

VA will have his check and could give us 3 confirmed town or a scum.

Zerg for Life
KelsierSC
Profile Blog Joined March 2013
United Kingdom10443 Posts
August 26 2014 23:14 GMT
#2598
On August 27 2014 08:09 Damdred wrote:
I know it is a new concept.... instead of trying to math your way to a win and clutter the thread actually play the game and kill the one likely to flip red or flip sk.

I think hapa isn't town so obviously that's where i am


I am playing the game, I am figuring out the best lynch.

Zerg for Life
yamato77
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
11589 Posts
August 26 2014 23:14 GMT
#2599
STOP THE STUPID THEORYCRAFT

IT'S USELESS
Writer@WriterYamato
KelsierSC
Profile Blog Joined March 2013
United Kingdom10443 Posts
August 26 2014 23:14 GMT
#2600
On August 27 2014 08:14 yamato77 wrote:
STOP THE STUPID THEORYCRAFT

IT'S USELESS


no it is useful to me.
Zerg for Life
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