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[T] Cell (Mini?) Mafia III - Page 24
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
DEABC! DEABC! DEABC! | ||
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Professor Apathy
Spain151 Posts
On August 29 2014 02:04 WaveofShadow wrote: Can I abstain? Oh actually ##Vote: WaveofShadow you can also vote me for A -> D -> B -> C -> E! | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
(or have a damn good idea) | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Imagine there’s five groups. Three are “hard” and in these groups we have a 40% chance to lynch properly. Two groups are “easy” and in these groups we have an 80% chance to lynch properly. Now, pick between these orders: 1) 40%, 40%, 40%, 80%, 80% 2) 80%, 80%, 40%, 40%, 40% Ordering 2 is better. Better chance to win by odds. And even if we mislynched D1-3, order 2 is better because it reduces the chance of us getting swept 3-0, which means more days of play, which means more posts & information. If a cell is on the easier side, it should somewhere within D1-D3. @Oats: Am I a happy person? Yeah, I think so, plus this has been a pretty great week for me. Question for you: So far a lot of the people in thread seem to want to sheep marv. Is this good? @marv: Do you think our cell should be last? Why? | ||
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Professor Apathy
Spain151 Posts
You're two examples above with percentages also completly ignore the fact that reads changer over time. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
all of you guys who are trying to order groups based on how easy or hard they are are missing the point. all that matters is which people we want to have alive at the end. This is provably wrong. @Apathy: I don't live in the future so I can't really predict how reads will change. If you admit to being scum on D2, I'll wish your cell was D2. | ||
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Professor Apathy
Spain151 Posts
On August 29 2014 02:32 Amiko wrote: My post above addresses what BH wrote - This is provably wrong. @Apathy: I don't live in the future so I can't really predict how reads will change. If you admit to being scum on D2, I'll wish your cell was D2. what I've been getting at this whole time is that reads that are easy or doable get easier over time. Reads that are really hard don't change all that much no matter how much time you give them. Thus placing the easy ones early would give us the lowest overall percentage because we're not benefitting from getting more stable reads on them that way. | ||
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lilwade
United States136 Posts
On August 29 2014 01:53 Holyflare wrote: So you ditched the campaign and decided to do nothing instead? You left with a very random bunnies is mafia post but didn't say why. Elaborate that please. Its obvious isnt it? I have a better town read on Apathy than on bunnies | ||
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Professor Apathy
Spain151 Posts
Though I'd really like to be mayor and not just come in second for once... | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I'm on board with the idea that reads get easier over time. But how does that at all support your proposed order of Cell E last? | ||
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ritoky
United States6851 Posts
On August 29 2014 02:43 Amiko wrote: @Apathy I'm on board with the idea that reads get easier over time. But how does that at all support your proposed order of Cell E last? On August 28 2014 08:12 Professor Apathy wrote: I don't care about what's best for you. I care about what's funny for me Look I answered your question by reading! | ||
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30775 Posts
On August 29 2014 02:36 lilwade wrote: Its obvious isnt it? I have a better town read on Apathy than on bunnies Elaborate verb ɪˈlabəreɪt/ 1. develop or present (a theory, policy, or system) in further detail. Stop playing dumb and expand on why you have a town read on apathy and not bunnies. I've seen you are capable of stringing together actual sentences. | ||
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30775 Posts
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30775 Posts
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mtamburini
Canada506 Posts
On August 28 2014 10:59 Not really holyflare wrote: Guaranteed AFTER marv actually posts I have all the reason to think you're scum now for being anti town Ive only got enough experience on 2 people in this game to know what their alignment with confidence. Bunnies and HF. Picking groups in order of hardest to lynch being last is only good if you think you can jump to an early lead. Im a great late game player and would prefer to go 3rd or 4th in the necking order so I can grab some information about previous events in the other cells. | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
Why make things more complicated than they need to be? Just vote me. | ||
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27ninjabunnies
United States2486 Posts
On August 28 2014 21:11 Holyflare wrote: Why does mm1's entrance not disturb you bunnies? Did he post? I must have missed it. I wasn't really focusing on MM when skimming the thread. I saw my group posting, which is wayyyy better than last cell game when I was the only one posting for awhile before my lurker group showed up, which in a way benefited me since I was mafia that game. I'm glad I don't have a lurker group this game. On August 28 2014 22:12 Professor Apathy wrote: Funny thing, I actually thought the same way he thought and wanted to wait until seeing lil's entrance before commenting on it. You do give off a way to stiff vibe for me right now. Like you're constantly on edge for some reason. Your very first post hit me as... not funny (I'm not giving you a bad time for that) at the same time it sounds like you're actually trying to somewhat defend yourself in that post. It's just a really odd mixture between people trolling, you trying to dig in as well but in the end we get some super awkward post from you. And that feeling continues with your posts later on. You start off saying you like me towards a post from me that was clearly not to be taken seriously, again trying to keep the ball of "I can shitpost too!". I don't have a problem with that one post actually, not at all and no I'm not taking it seriously. But you do end up going afk, get back in the thread and you're super serious when nothing has changed. My joke of a proposal (really I think it's good, the reasoning behind putting E last I mentioned just happened to be a joke) still is largely the same and you somehow think that's odd now. So you actually went serious mode but I don't see why. You didn't do anything at all. Furthermore: more proof of you being unable to just be straight up with us. What's that "My mind can change" doing there? Of course people's minds can change, or so I'd hope. What's the point of mentioning that? This is in essence exactly what I'm talking about. I think you're really scared and you're unconsciously (?) already setting up a retreat when there should be no need to be so wishy washy. TL;dr: Whenever I read your posts I get the feeling that you lack the balls to actually just shitpost or say what you mean. That is I don't get the feeling that you actually feel the need to post something more serious when you do but do so because you think you should. Some things I want to discuss with you. 1, So, I mean. I'm not intentionally trying to be funny? I have my moments. And I did like your post. Was there a problem with liking that post? (You mention that there isn't, but there obviously is if you brought it up. You go from that, to saying I'm super serious.). Also, I have no balls. Would be kinda weird seeing as I have a vagina. (Points to WOS for the joke  )2. I really didn't think my posts were all that serious, but I do tend to like getting started with finding mafia and making connections. I don't troll often. I see no reason to. While others may want to troll the entire game away, like I said, I want to focus on the game. It's easier to read people without all the trolling behind it. I AFK because I have a life outside of mafia. Most of us do. I had homework for my college classes (I'm taking 18 hours, which lemme tell you, really hard when you have a full time job on top of that) but I will be posting and being active this game. 3. I am not afraid to post what I think. I'll say whatever is on my mind when I want to and how I want to. You, or anyone else, won't sway that. I have no reason to retreat. Infact, I put out there I want to be mayor. Sure it was a shit effort compared to the ones who post huge ass posts, but it was my effort. And I had a cute funny picture. 4. My first post was my mayor post, was it not? Also, ritoky last cell game used his freedom pitch to become mayor. He did a shit cell order, which cost the town the game. I'd rather that not happen this game. Also, my "Your post lacks orginality" was totally me joking with ritoky. Ritoky and I have a history- quite entertaining really. Prepare for the fake cop check on me later. (Yes, I know we don't have a cop.) 5. I feel like you are nitpicking everything I say just to throw scum on me. Was there a reason I put "My mind can change?" Eh, not really. I don't think it was out of place. I was mainly stating that I didn't like you at the beginning. My mind can change on that. I tend to type exactly what goes through my head, with no filter. It's how my brain operates. @Lilwade: We get that you read me scum over apathy, but the reason as why you are reading a person as scum matters more than the person you are reading scum, imo. | ||
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mtamburini
Canada506 Posts
On August 28 2014 16:39 MysteryMeat1 wrote: you should make me town mayor my credentials -i'm town -i follow RNGesus You should vote for me we have the same platform. | ||
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ritoky
United States6851 Posts
No one should ever vote for this guy. First and foremost, this quote: On August 28 2014 08:12 Professor Apathy wrote: I don't care about what's best for you. I care about what's funny for me He has already indicated that he has no intention of doing anything beneficial for others or town victory at the sacrifice of his own fun. Especially if that is in regards to moving his own cell from last to anywhere else. A mindset like that determining something that can have great impact on the game will only lead to the detriment of women's rights and the town as a whole. Further, there are some strange things about him that would ward me off otherwise. First, this guy has been like a sleazeball politician trying to get votes. He talks with people and they say "ah i would change this about that order", and then he does it and says "see i did it, vote for me!". I don't want such desperation in my leaders. Secondly, he had that strange unexplained comment early on about marv before marv had talked that wasn't explained. Thirdly, he has been calling group A a shitstorm non-stop but for no particular reason. To me it indicates that he knows something more about my group than I do. I look at my group and I don't particularly see some of the more rude/boisterous people I have played with on these forums so I can't think he is referring to that. So what the hell is he referring to? Seeing as how it is his primary justification for wanting the group early. Re: Order of cells I am pretty much at the same place that BH is at. I think D and E are interchangeable for first and 2nd. D is a miserable group with low participation rates and a bunch of smurfs; last time I was mayor I made the mistake of leaving that group until later and going for the 2 groups I felt were slam dunks early. It backfired badly, because they still didn't participate. Group E seems way too straightforward to leave until anywhere past 2nd. Apathy has done some questionable things and his mind is in the gutter, but he has tried to be the center of attention which gives him back some town cred for me. Bunnies is being wayyyyyyy to similar to the last cell game. She wants her cell in the same place, she is making no effort to get involved in mayor race, she isn't screaming town; just a lot of things pointing to the same play style that was mafia last time. As for wade, that guy is town. Like my top town read. His entrance into the thread was just pure BALLS. His first full-fledged game and he does that? If he is mafia, he has pocketed me already. As for the remaining order, BH proposes ABC. My only issue with that is C being last, and it really isn't my issue. A lot of people just say that scum Marv is super easy to read, and so in the event he is scum and everyone knows it early on; it would be shitty to have an easy scum read sitting at the end cuz we may not get to him. Currently I have no preference between the order of ABC as 3,4 and 5; other than I would prefer C not be 5. | ||
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