On August 06 2014 05:29 Lord Tolkien wrote: cya: VT Me: VT lilwade: cop
I'm vigi.
And you havent shot anyone yet?
lelelelel
Wait, are you being serious here? Because if you are, this changes EVERYTHING, everything, and means it's highly likely that the last scum is godfather, and for cya to be godfather. Which invalidates EVERYTHING. O_o
On August 06 2014 05:29 Lord Tolkien wrote: cya: VT Me: VT lilwade: cop
I'm vigi.
And you havent shot anyone yet?
lelelelel
Wait, are you being serious here? Because if you are, this changes EVERYTHING, everything, and means it's highly likely that the last scum is godfather, and for cya to be godfather. Which invalidates EVERYTHING. O_o
If you believed his claim, you are voting on me not even knowing why. I doubt you filter dived me before voting on me. I'm starting to believe you're likely to be mafia.
If I have to choose between you and Banks right now, I'd vote on you. That's the issue. Who is more likely to be scum in my eyes? You.
If Banks is actually claiming vigi (if he's fakeclaiming, he's is stupid), then that opens up cya as mafia godfather, because with 2 blue roles it makes no sense otherwise. In which case the game gets harder.
Do I believe that cya is godfather? Not really no. My read on him has actually been the only one that's been consistent this entire game, and lilwade's claim corroborates it. If the possibility of godfather goes up, then cya's position as confirmed town is much weaker for me. But right now?
You're more likely scum.
And yes, I believe the cop claim for now. He'll die tonight if he's cop, because mafia won't let him live till tomorrow. He's likely not VT because he's not stupid enough to fake-claim (I HOPE), and I'm fairly certain mafia won't claim tonight; mafia would much rather claim LYLO.
The vigi claim is blowing my mind though. Like wat.
Basically we should know tonight if lilwade IS ACTUALLY COP, so I see no reason to push onto him TODAY. If by some miracle he lives till LYLO, he becomes top scum candidate unless he gets a good check in (which is a 33-67% chance of happening), but until then, no.
It remains possible that cya is godfather, I'm not ruling that out. But honestly, I'm willing to risk it ATM since my gut has been telling me he's donkey town this entire game, and I have a cop check on him.
IN MY CURRENT TIER LIST OF PEOPLE TO LYNCH:
GB Banks Cya lilwade (jumps to near first if he doesn't die tonight)
On August 06 2014 07:11 Lord Tolkien wrote: Everyone and their mother was pushing onto meatpudding. So...yeah no.
Votecount 4 on meatpudding 3 on me so, yeah, "everybody". Check my reasons against meatpudding. I was the one who started his push aggressively.
Are you mafia? Your "not caring" attitude is sounding like mafia.
At night, EVERYONE WAS PUSHING ONTO HIM. Jenny died and she was putting her up as a prime D2 lynch bandwagon, I did as well even if I didn't ultimately vote on him (since I liked his D2 posts BETTER THAN YOURS). I don't think there was a single person who DIDN'T list Meatpudding as a D2 lynch candidate.
Now during D2, there were REASONS why some people (including me) felt you were more likely scum. Namely your refusal to entertain other possible bandwagons to tunnel onto meatpudding.
On August 06 2014 07:16 Lord Tolkien wrote: Basically we should know tonight if lilwade IS ACTUALLY COP, so I see no reason to push onto him TODAY. If by some miracle he lives till LYLO, he becomes top scum candidate unless he gets a good check in (which is a 33-67% chance of happening), but until then, no.
It remains possible that cya is godfather, I'm not ruling that out. But honestly, I'm willing to risk it ATM since my gut has been telling me he's donkey town this entire game, and I have a cop check on him.
IN MY CURRENT TIER LIST OF PEOPLE TO LYNCH:
GB Banks Cya lilwade (jumps to near first if he doesn't die tonight)
Mafia lets him live, draw attention to him day4, easy mislynch on LYLO.
Try harder.
1) why the fuck would they let him live when he has a 66% chance of checking someone in LYLO, and making the game that much harder for mafia.
2) who else would they shoot exactly; the only one who's "confirmed" town is cya if the check is correct, and there are 3 unconfirmed towns. IF WE LYNCH CYA and he's not mafia (which I currently believe), what then? Argh.
I suppose they'll shoot me or Banks if one of us isn't lynched tonight, but eh. It's a significantly weaker play I would think.
3) I wouldn't lynch lilwade immediately. It just puts him as prime lynch candidate. opinions *le gasp* change,
On August 06 2014 07:16 Lord Tolkien wrote: Basically we should know tonight if lilwade IS ACTUALLY COP, so I see no reason to push onto him TODAY. If by some miracle he lives till LYLO, he becomes top scum candidate unless he gets a good check in (which is a 33-67% chance of happening), but until then, no.
It remains possible that cya is godfather, I'm not ruling that out. But honestly, I'm willing to risk it ATM since my gut has been telling me he's donkey town this entire game, and I have a cop check on him.
IN MY CURRENT TIER LIST OF PEOPLE TO LYNCH:
GB Banks Cya lilwade (jumps to near first if he doesn't die tonight)
Mafia lets him live, draw attention to him day4, easy mislynch on LYLO.
Try harder.
1) why the fuck would they let him live when he has a 66% chance of checking someone in LYLO, and making the game that much harder for mafia.
2) who else would they shoot exactly; the only one who's "confirmed" town is cya if the check is correct, and there are 3 unconfirmed towns. IF WE LYNCH CYA and he's not mafia (which I currently believe), what then? Argh.
I suppose they'll shoot me or Banks if one of us isn't lynched tonight, but eh. It's a significantly weaker play I would think.
3) I wouldn't lynch lilwade immediately. It just puts him as prime lynch candidate. opinions *le gasp* change,
Where are you taking that number from? Night3 = 4 people 1 is lilwade, other one is cya 50% chance of him checking a mafia, IF there is no godfather, when there probably is one, it would be slightly unbalanced for mafia if there is no godfather. This takes the probability of checking mafia to the ground.
Much better to let lilwade survive and make him the last lynch.
You're right, I forgot to count cya as already checked. Or lilwade himself. how2numbers
Anyways, THE POINT IS letting him live gives an unacceptable chance of a copcheck on someone IN LYLO, which depending who's lynched is 50-66%. If cya still lives, then it doesn't matter anyways as it gives lilwade room to push onto the unconfirmed town even if he didn't check him correctly. If he gets a red check, great, town is much MUCH closer to winning LYLO. Combined with the fact that lilwade dying LYLO IS NOT GUARANTEED, and there is an unacceptable amount of risk for mafia.
Again, this assumes no godfather. If there is a godfather, then yes, they may just let lilwade live and hope they check him.
IN ANY EVENT, I am agreeing with lilwade's claim for now since It's too risk for mafia to make the claim the day BEFORE LYLO.
I don't think there's any point in me changing my vote right now. But you know what, fuck it.
#unvote TehPoofter #vote GlowingBear
Might as well consolidate. And I don't feel like dealing with your shit GB. If you had pushed cya or TehPoofter, maybe we could get something going, but NOPE, LETS PUSH LILWADE TODAY. <_<;