EPTOn July 15 2014 10:29 layabout wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
If people by and large aren't seeing toad a scum i might put the idea on hold.
It really bugs me that ritoky labels those posts "vote analysis"
it's vote data
the analysis is the bit that you do with it that he hasn't done
for instance:
I believe that in the end mafia would prefer to be on the list of voters for kushmaster than not once they thought he was doomed. kush would have died yesterday or today so whilst a mislynch was desirable it would not be worth the risk of exposing more members of the team. Even if they tried to save kush once it was clear that he would get lynched then, being on the wagon make them look a whole lot better than not.
So if you agree with my initial statement mafia are likelier to be in;
Group 1:
kushm4sta:toadesstern, sloosh, batsnacks, yamato77, forumite, hiropro, ritoky, harurh
Than in group 2:
Non-voters: layabout, koshi, vivax, exo_, damnedred, alakaslam
Next i would use my thoughts about the players in question to trim group 1 down to:
batsnacks forumite hiropro ritoky harurh
and after looking into that i might say that we should kill batsnacks or ritoky
and since he never bothered to do any of this i would then say that we should kill ritoky.
^^^^^
Vote analysis
If people by and large aren't seeing toad a scum i might put the idea on hold.
It really bugs me that ritoky labels those posts "vote analysis"
it's vote data
the analysis is the bit that you do with it that he hasn't done
for instance:
On July 14 2014 10:32 ritoky wrote:
updating previous posts with this day's voting info
+ Show Spoiler +
D2:
exo_ (1): mderg
billmurray (3): toadesstern, yamato77, hiropro
mderg (11): sloosh, vivax, harurh, sinani206, kushm4sta, alakaslam, exo_, prplhz, layabout, forumite, damnedred
forumite (3): visceraeyes, billmurray, koshi
Non-voters: ritoky, corazon, vivax, batsnacks
D3:
billmurray (1): kushm4sta
kushm4sta (10): toadesstern, sloosh, visceraeyes, batsnacks, yamato77, forumite, bill murray, hiropro, ritoky, harurh
Non-voters: layabout, koshi, vivax, exo_, damnedred, alakaslam
Note: layabout and bill murray are now green because they are 99.9% confirmed town.
updating previous posts with this day's voting info
+ Show Spoiler +
D1:
iamperfection (14): prplhz, toadesstern, sloosh, harurh, visceraeyes, obiwanshinobi, kushm4sta, yamato77, alakaslam, koshi, forumite, vivax, sinani206, corazon
corazon (2): iamperfection, iamrobik
exo_ (1): damdred
ritoky (1): 27ninjabunnies
obiwanshinobi (1): exo_
forumite (1): bill
hiropro (1): batsnacks
Non-voters: ritoky, hiropro, mderg, layabout, tehpoofter
Note: underlines are for 3rd party
iamperfection (14): prplhz, toadesstern, sloosh, harurh, visceraeyes, obiwanshinobi, kushm4sta, yamato77, alakaslam, koshi, forumite, vivax, sinani206, corazon
corazon (2): iamperfection, iamrobik
exo_ (1): damdred
ritoky (1): 27ninjabunnies
obiwanshinobi (1): exo_
forumite (1): bill
hiropro (1): batsnacks
Non-voters: ritoky, hiropro, mderg, layabout, tehpoofter
Note: underlines are for 3rd party
D2:
exo_ (1): mderg
billmurray (3): toadesstern, yamato77, hiropro
mderg (11): sloosh, vivax, harurh, sinani206, kushm4sta, alakaslam, exo_, prplhz, layabout, forumite, damnedred
forumite (3): visceraeyes, billmurray, koshi
Non-voters: ritoky, corazon, vivax, batsnacks
D3:
billmurray (1): kushm4sta
kushm4sta (10): toadesstern, sloosh, visceraeyes, batsnacks, yamato77, forumite, bill murray, hiropro, ritoky, harurh
Non-voters: layabout, koshi, vivax, exo_, damnedred, alakaslam
Note: layabout and bill murray are now green because they are 99.9% confirmed town.
I believe that in the end mafia would prefer to be on the list of voters for kushmaster than not once they thought he was doomed. kush would have died yesterday or today so whilst a mislynch was desirable it would not be worth the risk of exposing more members of the team. Even if they tried to save kush once it was clear that he would get lynched then, being on the wagon make them look a whole lot better than not.
kushm4sta (10): toadesstern, sloosh, visceraeyes, batsnacks, yamato77, forumite, bill murray, hiropro, ritoky, harurh
So if you agree with my initial statement mafia are likelier to be in;
Group 1:
kushm4sta:toadesstern, sloosh, batsnacks, yamato77, forumite, hiropro, ritoky, harurh
Than in group 2:
Non-voters: layabout, koshi, vivax, exo_, damnedred, alakaslam
Next i would use my thoughts about the players in question to trim group 1 down to:
batsnacks forumite hiropro ritoky harurh
and after looking into that i might say that we should kill batsnacks or ritoky
and since he never bothered to do any of this i would then say that we should kill ritoky.
^^^^^
Vote analysis
agree, I pretty much had the same thoughts yesterday or earlier today... idk and came to the exact same conclusion that it should be ritoky-> damdred/batsnacks in that order.
What do you make of the information that ritoky didn't visit anyone last night? We can be pretty sure that they used Kush for one of the KP but that still leaves 1 more with most likely something like 2 or 3 mafias left.
Just yolo nontheless and vote ritoky or go for the 2nd guy in line instead because mafia would use ritoky in 1/3 of the chances and he did not carry out a kill?
