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On June 24 2014 06:19 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2014 05:55 YouKnowZhou wrote:IMO, in a way Lazermo's saving grace is his utterly nonsensical vote on me: On June 21 2014 08:59 Lazermonkey wrote:
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I Mderg is probably a crappy lynch. But there are still too few voters on YKZ... w/e.
##Unvote
##Vote: YKZ There was NO CHANCE this vote would lynch me, based on when he made it. There's also no chance that this vote would possibly look good if he was scum. I could imagine town being like "w/e fuck it I'm voting who I want even if it makes no difference" but I can't imagine scum making such a boneheaded move. There's no chance to save mderg there, and if he's scum he knows mderg will flip scum. Why make a move like that? Sure, it's not like some amazing pro-town vote, especially since it's on me and not mderg, but look at the thought process here. Imagine your'e Lazermo. You post a lot, you read the thread, but you're not particulariy "with it". You think YKZ is scum overt mderg, who is CLEARLY town. You try some shenannies onto like VE but that doesn't work out, and in the end you realize your vote will make no difference. Your townread, mderg, is getting lynched, and the counterwagon is your scumread, YKZ. It's too late. You can't do a thing. All you have left is a final act of defiance, futile defiance, but defiance nonetheless. You cast your worthless vote. That makes sense to me. I see that. Now, imagine you're scum Lazermo. Your scumbuddy mderg is getting lynched, and the counterwagon is a townie. Your vote is parked on VE, a nonconsequential wagon. You literally can't save mderg, and voting ykz will only make you look bad. Do you vote ykz? of course not! You're not a moron. So, this vote makes Lazermo town. Or you're scum Lazermonkey, your vote will still look terrible on VE, and you vote YKZ to do the "oh scum wouldn't do that" maneuver. Or you're scum Lazermonkey, the votes are flying around and it isn't too clear what the votecounts are, so you do it because you think you can save mderg. I mean, there's a lot more scenarios than the ones you display here.
There is no "oh scum wouldn't do that" manoeuvre though, that's just wifom. You're just saying "this thing that only makes sense for a townie to do, makes sense for scum to do because it makes sense for a townie to do", but I'm talking about mindset here. Look, it's plausible that LM decided to do something insane that provides no tangible benefit, lots of potential downside, and plenty of potential getting-lynched-tomorrow-side, as scum, on the off chance we'd have this convo. Typically though, that's not how scum rolls.
And regarding vote count confusion, here's where the last vote count was: (link). Mderg had 5 votes, and I had 3.
Mderg votes me, bringing me up to 4. Then LM votes me, bringing me up to 5, at the last second, and sincee mderg hit 5 first, mderg is lynched. Now, it's possible LM was a confused scum, but the only other vote that happened in the final 10 minutes of the game was Mderg's. If Mderg and LM were scum together, Mderg and LM would be in the QT and Mderg would say something like "ok, I just voted for YKZ. If we can get one more townie to vote YKZ, you can hammer and we can kill him."
LM as scum would be keenly aware of the votecount. It's still possible that he got confused anyways, or he thought another townie had voted when in fact they hadn't, but the final 10 mintues were not actually confusing at all. 10 minutes before the lynch, it's 5-3. Mderg votes me, making it 5-4, 9 minutes before the lynch, and nobody votes until the very deadline, where LM brings it to 5-5 and mderg is flipped.
I think both scenarios are possible, but not likely.
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On June 24 2014 07:05 Koshi wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2014 06:53 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On June 24 2014 06:51 Koshi wrote:
Want to talk with me? Why do you consider VE town when you don't know Lazer's alignment and VE has acted, in your opinion, scummily in his own right? That was in case LM is scum. Because I said before they could be scumbuddies. But I don't think anymore that that is the case. So I corrected myself. Look, both could be scum here. I don't know which one. Maybe not a single one of them is scum. But I think that they are. Sloosh/LM/VE it just feels right that scum is in there.
Such argument. Much impress.
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On June 24 2014 06:54 Snickers wrote:
Koshi is town because of how bad his play continual is. Look at his first scum reads as me release and somebody else because we did not vote together. He's not pushing the thread or helping much but what do you expect from a bad town player. More on this later.
You can just say: Koshi is town because his reads evolve to solving the game. Also, he is a pretty cool guy.
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On June 24 2014 07:11 Koshi wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2014 06:54 Snickers wrote:
Koshi is town because of how bad his play continual is. Look at his first scum reads as me release and somebody else because we did not vote together. He's not pushing the thread or helping much but what do you expect from a bad town player. More on this later. You can just say: Koshi is town because his reads evolve to solving the game. Also, he is a pretty cool guy.
What do you think about VE not voting to save himself?
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I see some people are coming around! I'm pleased this is happening. We can do this.
On June 24 2014 06:08 Release wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2014 06:05 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On June 24 2014 06:02 Release wrote:On June 24 2014 06:01 Artanis[Xp] wrote:But at this stage, I feel that the final 2 remaining scum are almost certainly in VE/Lazer/BH. I know that unflipped associations are bad, but I feel that VE and BH cannot possibly be on the same team. (Does anyone else agree?). I completely disagree. I think both BH/VE are town or scum, with an outside chance of BH being scum and VE town. Both town: You think that they would ignore each other to such a great extent? Both scum: You think that they would create this bus on each other and stick with it for this long? Both town: What do you mean with ignoring each other? They've been posting a ton about each other. Both scum: Yeah. VE's done it before, see LI where VE and Toad had a bus that would put this one to shame. Town: Claiming that the other is lying when one responds other (BH on VE). Claiming that the other is lying/misleading/blatantly wrong when reasons are made (VE on BH).
There's no real benefit to working on associative tells between unflipped players. How about we flip VE first, THEN speculate on it?
On June 24 2014 05:59 Release wrote:
No. His vote doesn't matter. He could do whatever the fuck he wants and Mderg will still get lynched. I feel going any further than to say inconsequential vote ---> not alignment indicative is a stretch and probably WIFOMable.
Obviously he COULD vote anyone, and it wouldn't make a difference. This is an assumption that's built into my case. Pointing this fact out doesn't weakn my case.
Thanks for the response to my other, longer post. I'll get to that shortly.
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On June 24 2014 07:13 Chezinu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2014 07:11 Koshi wrote:On June 24 2014 06:54 Snickers wrote:
Koshi is town because of how bad his play continual is. Look at his first scum reads as me release and somebody else because we did not vote together. He's not pushing the thread or helping much but what do you expect from a bad town player. More on this later. You can just say: Koshi is town because his reads evolve to solving the game. Also, he is a pretty cool guy. What do you think about VE not voting to save himself?
oh wait nm, didn't see his vote before
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On June 24 2014 07:13 Chezinu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2014 07:11 Koshi wrote:On June 24 2014 06:54 Snickers wrote:
Koshi is town because of how bad his play continual is. Look at his first scum reads as me release and somebody else because we did not vote together. He's not pushing the thread or helping much but what do you expect from a bad town player. More on this later. You can just say: Koshi is town because his reads evolve to solving the game. Also, he is a pretty cool guy. What do you think about VE not voting to save himself?
He will be back. And he is voting LM atm.
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Vote Count - Day 3:
Lazermonkey (3): VisceraEyes, slOosh, Chezinu - Unvotes (2): Koshi, Release
VisceraEyes (5): YouKnowZhou, Snickers, Koshi, Release, Lazermonkey - Unvotes (2): Lazermonkey, Chezinu
Koshi (1): - Unvotes (2): Artanis[Xp], Lazermonke
YouKnowZhou (0) - Unvotes (2): VisceraEyes, slOosh
Currently Not Voting (1): Artanis[Xp]
It looks like my dearest friend is going to die... 
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On June 24 2014 07:16 Chezinu wrote:Vote Count - Day 3: Lazermonkey (3): VisceraEyes, slOosh, Chezinu - Unvotes (2): Koshi, Release VisceraEyes (5): YouKnowZhou, Snickers, Koshi, Release, Lazermonkey - Unvotes (2): Lazermonkey, Chezinu Koshi (0): - Unvotes (2): Artanis[Xp], Lazermonkey YouKnowZhou (0) - Unvotes (2): VisceraEyes, slOosh Currently Not Voting (1): Artanis[Xp] It looks like my dearest friend is going to die...
##Unvote
##Vote VisceraEyes
On June 24 2014 07:16 Chezinu wrote:Vote Count - Day 3: Lazermonkey (2): VisceraEyes, slOosh - Unvotes (3): Koshi, Release, Chezinu VisceraEyes (6): YouKnowZhou, Snickers, Koshi, Release, Lazermonkey, Chezinu - Unvotes (2): Lazermonkey, Chezinu Koshi (0): - Unvotes (2): Artanis[Xp], Lazermonkey YouKnowZhou (0) - Unvotes (2): VisceraEyes, slOosh Currently Not Voting (1): Artanis[Xp] It looks like my dearest friend is going to die...
It has been decided it seems...
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Meh. GG scum.
My reads, again, since no one seems capable of reading my filter:
Release/Artanis are my top townies. They're clearly reading and critically thinking about the thread, and this has remained consistent except for a brief period on D1 when Artanis disappeared for a bit and then reappeared. I'll never vote these two ever.
Snickers had that really weird vote from mderg to save mderg's life yesterday. So that makes him town right? He's REALLY REALLY wrong about me. Whatever.
slOosh is in a weird place for me where I want to call him town because he seems to be in the right place where my alignment is concerned and his push on me N1 or whenever seemed genuine, and some of our interactions make me lean townie, but frankly if it's slOosh and someone random I'm not considering (Chezinu, Koshi) then this game may already be lost with the stuff BH is doing right now. His dropoff in meaningful activity at a time when he's not really being considered for lynch is not indicative of mafia, but it certainly doesn't look good objectively speaking. I'm back to null with slOosh.
Chezinu remains Chezinu in spite of repeated attempts by a few to steer him into a productive direction. Would lynch failing better lynches, which I believe there to be.
Koshi is scummy to me because when town he has his own opinions and FUCK anyone who doesn't share them. In this game he hasn't really given many of his own opinions, and he's sheeping the fuck out of BH. So I'm suspicious of Koshi.
For reasons I think BH is mafia, see any post I've made this cycle.
I think Lazer is the best lynch because he is on a short list of people I think could be mafia based on the voting on D1 (myself, Snickers, LM) and now he's opportunistically voting for me NOT based on his own observations but based on the findings and mutterings of others. I've answered any points he's raised against me, and he's just ignored. I think Snickers is town and I KNOW I'm town so I think LM is the best lynch today.
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Chez, BH, opinions on Koshi?
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On June 24 2014 07:07 YouKnowZhou wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2014 06:19 slOosh wrote:On June 24 2014 05:55 YouKnowZhou wrote:IMO, in a way Lazermo's saving grace is his utterly nonsensical vote on me: On June 21 2014 08:59 Lazermonkey wrote:
...
I Mderg is probably a crappy lynch. But there are still too few voters on YKZ... w/e.
##Unvote
##Vote: YKZ There was NO CHANCE this vote would lynch me, based on when he made it. There's also no chance that this vote would possibly look good if he was scum. I could imagine town being like "w/e fuck it I'm voting who I want even if it makes no difference" but I can't imagine scum making such a boneheaded move. There's no chance to save mderg there, and if he's scum he knows mderg will flip scum. Why make a move like that? Sure, it's not like some amazing pro-town vote, especially since it's on me and not mderg, but look at the thought process here. Imagine your'e Lazermo. You post a lot, you read the thread, but you're not particulariy "with it". You think YKZ is scum overt mderg, who is CLEARLY town. You try some shenannies onto like VE but that doesn't work out, and in the end you realize your vote will make no difference. Your townread, mderg, is getting lynched, and the counterwagon is your scumread, YKZ. It's too late. You can't do a thing. All you have left is a final act of defiance, futile defiance, but defiance nonetheless. You cast your worthless vote. That makes sense to me. I see that. Now, imagine you're scum Lazermo. Your scumbuddy mderg is getting lynched, and the counterwagon is a townie. Your vote is parked on VE, a nonconsequential wagon. You literally can't save mderg, and voting ykz will only make you look bad. Do you vote ykz? of course not! You're not a moron. So, this vote makes Lazermo town. Or you're scum Lazermonkey, your vote will still look terrible on VE, and you vote YKZ to do the "oh scum wouldn't do that" maneuver. Or you're scum Lazermonkey, the votes are flying around and it isn't too clear what the votecounts are, so you do it because you think you can save mderg. I mean, there's a lot more scenarios than the ones you display here. There is no "oh scum wouldn't do that" manoeuvre though, that's just wifom. You're just saying "this thing that only makes sense for a townie to do, makes sense for scum to do because it makes sense for a townie to do", but I'm talking about mindset here. Look, it's plausible that LM decided to do something insane that provides no tangible benefit, lots of potential downside, and plenty of potential getting-lynched-tomorrow-side, as scum, on the off chance we'd have this convo. Typically though, that's not how scum rolls. And regarding vote count confusion, here's where the last vote count was: (link). Mderg had 5 votes, and I had 3. Mderg votes me, bringing me up to 4. Then LM votes me, bringing me up to 5, at the last second, and sincee mderg hit 5 first, mderg is lynched. Now, it's possible LM was a confused scum, but the only other vote that happened in the final 10 minutes of the game was Mderg's. If Mderg and LM were scum together, Mderg and LM would be in the QT and Mderg would say something like "ok, I just voted for YKZ. If we can get one more townie to vote YKZ, you can hammer and we can kill him." LM as scum would be keenly aware of the votecount. It's still possible that he got confused anyways, or he thought another townie had voted when in fact they hadn't, but the final 10 mintues were not actually confusing at all. 10 minutes before the lynch, it's 5-3. Mderg votes me, making it 5-4, 9 minutes before the lynch, and nobody votes until the very deadline, where LM brings it to 5-5 and mderg is flipped. I think both scenarios are possible, but not likely.
On June 21 2014 09:00 YouKnowZhou wrote:
read lazermo's filter if i die now
On a clean reread sure things are clear, but at the time it may not have been, as evidenced by this post here. You wouldn't post this unless you were actually considering that you could die.
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On June 24 2014 07:22 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Chez, BH, opinions on Koshi?
If VE is town, then all mafia voted bunnies Day 1.
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Shoot is it Koshi not Lazer? Man....
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On June 24 2014 07:24 Chezinu wrote:If VE is town, then all mafia voted bunnies Day 1.
Snickers and Lazer could still be mafia, though I'm quite certain it's not snickers and it's probably not Lazer either, they're still options. Plus, I don't think it's impossible for all mafia to vote bunnies on D1.
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OMG AND DAT LATEVOTE JESUS I FORGOT
GUYS DON'T VOTE ME OVER DAT FUCKING LATEVOTE FOR REAL!?!?
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@VE I don't sheep as scum. I just make a case against the strongest townie and pray to jeebus I survive a couple lynches.
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On June 24 2014 07:18 VisceraEyes wrote:
SNIP
I think Lazer is the best lynch because he is on a short list of people I think could be mafia based on the voting on D1 (myself, Snickers, LM) and now he's opportunistically voting for me NOT based on his own observations but based on the findings and mutterings of others. I've answered any points he's raised against me, and he's just ignored. I think Snickers is town and I KNOW I'm town so I think LM is the best lynch today.
First off, I'm voting you mostly on my own findings so I'm not sure what you are talking about. But even then, is sheeping someone scummy?
Secondly, when did I ignore you? It seems like you are just saying shit to make you look better. I didn't respond to your last post because we got to the point where further discussion wouldn't lead anywhere. You even youself said that one of the point boiled down to how you interpreted D2 and another point was based on WIFOM.
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On June 24 2014 07:30 VisceraEyes wrote:
OMG AND DAT LATEVOTE JESUS I FORGOT
GUYS DON'T VOTE ME OVER DAT FUCKING LATEVOTE FOR REAL!?!?
VE, do you love me?
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EPT
