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On June 26 2014 22:02 sinani206 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2014 17:15 Holyflare wrote:
You guys on chrom be dumb. 0 reason for chrom to fake claim tracker in that situation because not only would it get ritoky lynched but 2 mafia would also die if he flipped cop, not to mention the only way he'd fake claim that was if he was gf but he visited someone so he isn't. Unless you're saying he fake claimed miller to get a vt killed which he'd know because he got green checked which would make 0 sense whatsoever.
Slam has to be mafia. fucking this slam you're not proving anything right now
No look how many items do I have to explain this (oh wait infinity cause holy is scum)
Chrom and 27nb are both scum. They see ritoky's fake claim. They know it's fake, because he put a green check on chrom. But they also see that 27nb is going to get lynched.
Chrom's claim of miller forces ritocky to reveal that he was fakeclaiming and saves 27nb.
The alternative was to let 27nb get lynched and have chrom try and ride the green check, which they knew was fake and would get written off as soon as ritocky revealed his fakeclaim.
Claiming miller was the only logical response.
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Yes, that is a possible scenario. It's just not the likely scenario.
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Like you act like you're certain I'm mafia, but your logic that you keep repeating only proves that bunnies has to be mafia if I am mafia. You've said nothing about why I am mafia compared to Slam.
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round, I would be interested in hearing your reasoning for your vote. I think you're town and on the wrong wagon.
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SNB your plan still makes no sense. Plus it's a theory.
I know I am town. Therefore, I cannot be mafia with Chrom. I just don't see Chrom fake claiming there.
He could have easily stuck with the claim of green on him and pushed a mislynch on me, so it makes no sense to me he is mafia.
Also, Slam didnt rescind his claim? Very well then, he is likely to be mafia.
However, I don't think lynching between Chrom OR Slam is the play today. We are more likely to hit one of the three mafia OUTSIDE of Slam/ Chrom. Because obv, both Slam and Chrom cant be mafia together.
So outside of Slam/Chrom we have
[strike]Me[/strike]
HF
CR
SNB
[strike]Round[/strike]
[strike]Sinani[/strike]
VA
Now, I did some eliminating of the above. I eliminated me as a lynch, because I know I'm town. I eliminated also Sinani, because his claim on Chrom visiting Rainbows was too pro to be mafia. I also have a pretty good TR on Round this game, and I think they should be looked at another day.
That leaves a possible 3 mafia between SNB, VA, HF, and CR. (And again, this is all from my prospective)
HF has been more actively posting and looking to find scum than VA, CR, and SNB. VA has only stepped it up in the last 2 days, which makes me thing he was trying to look more town and push a ML on someone else.
Now if I have to do some heavy filter diving just to prove SNB is mafia, I will. But think of it this way. SNB has been on the chopping block for awhile now, yet somehow the lynch always manages to get off of him and onto a town ML. SNB also actively lurked (and while it has been shown that there have been many llurky towns) I think SNB is using this to his advantage.
But SNB is the best lynch, or even VA and CR. But for sure, SNB.
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And the strikes didn't work, but im too lazy to fix it. You guys get the idea.
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On June 27 2014 02:44 27ninjabunnies wrote:
SNB your plan still makes no sense. Plus it's a theory.
I know I am town. Therefore, I cannot be mafia with Chrom. I just don't see Chrom fake claiming there.
He could have easily stuck with the claim of green on him and pushed a mislynch on me, so it makes no sense to me he is mafia.
Also, Slam didnt rescind his claim? Very well then, he is likely to be mafia.
However, I don't think lynching between Chrom OR Slam is the play today. We are more likely to hit one of the three mafia OUTSIDE of Slam/ Chrom. Because obv, both Slam and Chrom cant be mafia together.
So outside of Slam/Chrom we have
[strike]Me[/strike]
HF
CR
SNB
[strike]Round[/strike]
[strike]Sinani[/strike]
VA
Now, I did some eliminating of the above. I eliminated me as a lynch, because I know I'm town. I eliminated also Sinani, because his claim on Chrom visiting Rainbows was too pro to be mafia. I also have a pretty good TR on Round this game, and I think they should be looked at another day.
That leaves a possible 3 mafia between SNB, VA, HF, and CR. (And again, this is all from my prospective)
HF has been more actively posting and looking to find scum than VA, CR, and SNB. VA has only stepped it up in the last 2 days, which makes me thing he was trying to look more town and push a ML on someone else.
Now if I have to do some heavy filter diving just to prove SNB is mafia, I will. But think of it this way. SNB has been on the chopping block for awhile now, yet somehow the lynch always manages to get off of him and onto a town ML. SNB also actively lurked (and while it has been shown that there have been many llurky towns) I think SNB is using this to his advantage.
But SNB is the best lynch, or even VA and CR. But for sure, SNB.
So it makes no sense for me to be mafia, and Slam is likely mafia, but we shouldn't lynch Slam today?
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On June 27 2014 02:50 Chromatically wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2014 02:44 27ninjabunnies wrote:
SNB your plan still makes no sense. Plus it's a theory.
I know I am town. Therefore, I cannot be mafia with Chrom. I just don't see Chrom fake claiming there.
He could have easily stuck with the claim of green on him and pushed a mislynch on me, so it makes no sense to me he is mafia.
Also, Slam didnt rescind his claim? Very well then, he is likely to be mafia.
However, I don't think lynching between Chrom OR Slam is the play today. We are more likely to hit one of the three mafia OUTSIDE of Slam/ Chrom. Because obv, both Slam and Chrom cant be mafia together.
So outside of Slam/Chrom we have
[strike]Me[/strike]
HF
CR
SNB
[strike]Round[/strike]
[strike]Sinani[/strike]
VA
Now, I did some eliminating of the above. I eliminated me as a lynch, because I know I'm town. I eliminated also Sinani, because his claim on Chrom visiting Rainbows was too pro to be mafia. I also have a pretty good TR on Round this game, and I think they should be looked at another day.
That leaves a possible 3 mafia between SNB, VA, HF, and CR. (And again, this is all from my prospective)
HF has been more actively posting and looking to find scum than VA, CR, and SNB. VA has only stepped it up in the last 2 days, which makes me thing he was trying to look more town and push a ML on someone else.
Now if I have to do some heavy filter diving just to prove SNB is mafia, I will. But think of it this way. SNB has been on the chopping block for awhile now, yet somehow the lynch always manages to get off of him and onto a town ML. SNB also actively lurked (and while it has been shown that there have been many llurky towns) I think SNB is using this to his advantage.
But SNB is the best lynch, or even VA and CR. But for sure, SNB. So it makes no sense for me to be mafia, and Slam is likely mafia, but we shouldn't lynch Slam today?
In a way yeah. Idk I had a pretty god tr on Slam at the beginning, and that's why I am iffy on lynching him. I could be completely wrong, but you can understand my hesitance.
I still think we have a higher chance of hitting mafia outside of You and slam.
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On June 27 2014 03:13 27ninjabunnies wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2014 02:50 Chromatically wrote:On June 27 2014 02:44 27ninjabunnies wrote:
SNB your plan still makes no sense. Plus it's a theory.
I know I am town. Therefore, I cannot be mafia with Chrom. I just don't see Chrom fake claiming there.
He could have easily stuck with the claim of green on him and pushed a mislynch on me, so it makes no sense to me he is mafia.
Also, Slam didnt rescind his claim? Very well then, he is likely to be mafia.
However, I don't think lynching between Chrom OR Slam is the play today. We are more likely to hit one of the three mafia OUTSIDE of Slam/ Chrom. Because obv, both Slam and Chrom cant be mafia together.
So outside of Slam/Chrom we have
[strike]Me[/strike]
HF
CR
SNB
[strike]Round[/strike]
[strike]Sinani[/strike]
VA
Now, I did some eliminating of the above. I eliminated me as a lynch, because I know I'm town. I eliminated also Sinani, because his claim on Chrom visiting Rainbows was too pro to be mafia. I also have a pretty good TR on Round this game, and I think they should be looked at another day.
That leaves a possible 3 mafia between SNB, VA, HF, and CR. (And again, this is all from my prospective)
HF has been more actively posting and looking to find scum than VA, CR, and SNB. VA has only stepped it up in the last 2 days, which makes me thing he was trying to look more town and push a ML on someone else.
Now if I have to do some heavy filter diving just to prove SNB is mafia, I will. But think of it this way. SNB has been on the chopping block for awhile now, yet somehow the lynch always manages to get off of him and onto a town ML. SNB also actively lurked (and while it has been shown that there have been many llurky towns) I think SNB is using this to his advantage.
But SNB is the best lynch, or even VA and CR. But for sure, SNB. So it makes no sense for me to be mafia, and Slam is likely mafia, but we shouldn't lynch Slam today? In a way yeah. Idk I had a pretty god tr on Slam at the beginning, and that's why I am iffy on lynching him. I could be completely wrong, but you can understand my hesitance. I still think we have a higher chance of hitting mafia outside of You and slam.
Not really but okay, you can push SnB if you want to. It's just that, assuming you're town, we need you to consolidate on Slam at the end of the day.
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On June 27 2014 03:44 Chromatically wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2014 03:13 27ninjabunnies wrote:On June 27 2014 02:50 Chromatically wrote:On June 27 2014 02:44 27ninjabunnies wrote:
SNB your plan still makes no sense. Plus it's a theory.
I know I am town. Therefore, I cannot be mafia with Chrom. I just don't see Chrom fake claiming there.
He could have easily stuck with the claim of green on him and pushed a mislynch on me, so it makes no sense to me he is mafia.
Also, Slam didnt rescind his claim? Very well then, he is likely to be mafia.
However, I don't think lynching between Chrom OR Slam is the play today. We are more likely to hit one of the three mafia OUTSIDE of Slam/ Chrom. Because obv, both Slam and Chrom cant be mafia together.
So outside of Slam/Chrom we have
[strike]Me[/strike]
HF
CR
SNB
[strike]Round[/strike]
[strike]Sinani[/strike]
VA
Now, I did some eliminating of the above. I eliminated me as a lynch, because I know I'm town. I eliminated also Sinani, because his claim on Chrom visiting Rainbows was too pro to be mafia. I also have a pretty good TR on Round this game, and I think they should be looked at another day.
That leaves a possible 3 mafia between SNB, VA, HF, and CR. (And again, this is all from my prospective)
HF has been more actively posting and looking to find scum than VA, CR, and SNB. VA has only stepped it up in the last 2 days, which makes me thing he was trying to look more town and push a ML on someone else.
Now if I have to do some heavy filter diving just to prove SNB is mafia, I will. But think of it this way. SNB has been on the chopping block for awhile now, yet somehow the lynch always manages to get off of him and onto a town ML. SNB also actively lurked (and while it has been shown that there have been many llurky towns) I think SNB is using this to his advantage.
But SNB is the best lynch, or even VA and CR. But for sure, SNB. So it makes no sense for me to be mafia, and Slam is likely mafia, but we shouldn't lynch Slam today? In a way yeah. Idk I had a pretty god tr on Slam at the beginning, and that's why I am iffy on lynching him. I could be completely wrong, but you can understand my hesitance. I still think we have a higher chance of hitting mafia outside of You and slam. Not really but okay, you can push SnB if you want to. It's just that, assuming you're town, we need you to consolidate on Slam at the end of the day.
But there's a voice in the back of my head that keeps telling me if we lynch slam we lose.
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Don't listen to that voice, it lies.
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We need to reach a consolidation here. All 5 town here need to vote on the same person today, or else mafia wins. Our strongest case right now is against slam. Can everyone get on him or does anyone believe there's a better alternative?
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On June 27 2014 03:57 Chairman Ray wrote:
We need to reach a consolidation here. All 5 town here need to vote on the same person today, or else mafia wins. Our strongest case right now is against slam. Can everyone get on him or does anyone believe there's a better alternative?
I think SNB is a fantastic alternative.
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I think SnB is mafia too, but do we have a strong case for him? We got a lot of soft reads because he's been playing pretty scummy all game, but this is not something I really want to lose to on lylo.
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On June 27 2014 04:06 Chairman Ray wrote:
I think SnB is mafia too, but do we have a strong case for him? We got a lot of soft reads because he's been playing pretty scummy all game, but this is not something I really want to lose to on lylo.
Well, I have to go out of town in about thirty minutes, So when I get back, I''ll have a case. It'll be in like 6 hours or so.
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United States1959 Posts
from a purely mathematical perspective this where we are
1 confirmed town
from my pov, i see one scum between slam and chrom (50%) and 3 out of the other 6 (50%)
1 blue-claiming town
pov: other claim is 100% scum, out the rest, 50%
3 vt-claiming town
pov: 50% between the first two, 60% between other green claims (3 of 5)
now, all we need to do is lynch a mafia. lets treat all scum equally for a sec.
the average for lynching between slam and chrom is (4*50+100)/5, which is 60%
on the other hand, lynching between the towns is (3*60+2*50)/5, which is 56%
These percentages aren't even factoring in that by successfully lynching out of those two, we confirm the other.
It makes more sense to lynch between slam and chrom.
It makes more sense to lynch slam.
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On June 27 2014 04:20 sinani206 wrote:
from a purely mathematical perspective this where we are
1 confirmed town
from my pov, i see one scum between slam and chrom (50%) and 3 out of the other 6 (50%)
1 blue-claiming town
pov: other claim is 100% scum, out the rest, 50%
3 vt-claiming town
pov: 50% between the first two, 60% between other green claims (3 of 5)
now, all we need to do is lynch a mafia. lets treat all scum equally for a sec.
the average for lynching between slam and chrom is (4*50+100)/5, which is 60%
on the other hand, lynching between the towns is (3*60+2*50)/5, which is 56%
These percentages aren't even factoring in that by successfully lynching out of those two, we confirm the other.
It makes more sense to lynch between slam and chrom.
It makes more sense to lynch slam.
Math, is why you fail.
Into exile, I must go
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So we're not lynching chrom for what reason exactly? I can't believe I actually have to post.
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On June 27 2014 07:11 roundabound wrote:
So we're not lynching chrom for what reason exactly? I can't believe I actually have to post.
On June 27 2014 04:20 sinani206 wrote:
from a purely mathematical perspective this where we are
1 confirmed town
from my pov, i see one scum between slam and chrom (50%) and 3 out of the other 6 (50%)
1 blue-claiming town
pov: other claim is 100% scum, out the rest, 50%
3 vt-claiming town
pov: 50% between the first two, 60% between other green claims (3 of 5)
now, all we need to do is lynch a mafia. lets treat all scum equally for a sec.
the average for lynching between slam and chrom is (4*50+100)/5, which is 60%
on the other hand, lynching between the towns is (3*60+2*50)/5, which is 56%
These percentages aren't even factoring in that by successfully lynching out of those two, we confirm the other.
It makes more sense to lynch between slam and chrom.
It makes more sense to lynch slam.
So we have to be stubborn and we will lynch chrom
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its really a win win situation, either we lynch mafia or the game ends, cant lose. so dont really care what happens.
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EPT
