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On May 28 2014 15:43 Holyflare wrote:
I dunnooo people that haven't talked but you know kind of how they play or something
Well the two people who have yet to speak since the game started are mderg and thrawn.
I think that thrawn is basically defaulted to mafia until I have any information to the contrary.
I have never played with mderg in my 2 games of TL mafia experience. So I don't know.
I will add this to the thread, which I have not added thus far. I am 81% sure that poofter and MZ are the same alignment. How they both very quickly read me as town and got on board the freedom train in a similar manner is indicates this to me. Right now they are in the freedom huddle with me. What do you think about this?
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Yep, more of dem typing errors.
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The winds of freedom have risen from their slumber. Catching up on what I missed.
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On May 29 2014 04:43 Holyflare wrote:only reason i'd want mayor is because i have the best order and nobody even commented on it yet 
the number 1 reason i don't like your order right now is because I have arrived at 2 basic certainties at this point in the game:
1) Group A should go first
2) Holy crap do I not want tambo or his group last and to be in LYLO
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Anyone else want to give their definitive Cell orders before the deadline? Other than mine I have:
batsnacks: C, A, B, E, D
bunnies: A, D, E, C, B
Holyflare: A, B, C, E, D
If I missed some in the thread, someone tell me so I can update my list.
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On May 29 2014 05:17 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On May 29 2014 05:11 batsnacks wrote:
We've got less that 2 hours.
Just consider this: What is the advantage of lynching the mayor's group first?
Lets assume that most people vote for the mayor because they believe he/she is town. If the mayor is in the cell to be lynched on day 1, that means that the first group up for lynch already has one person that the majority read as town. This gives town a starting advantage. If town can get the first victory, that is a lot of pressure on mafia. I would argue town winning day 1 is more important than town winning any other day, except for LYLO. Building momentum is important. Going into day 1 with a town read (the mayor) is an advantage. Consider this. so why isn't A first in your order?
Cuz he is voting for himself, so if he thinks momentum is a large factor; he would want C to go first given he is elected.
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On May 29 2014 05:17 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On May 29 2014 05:05 ritoky wrote:
Anyone else want to give their definitive Cell orders before the deadline? Other than mine I have:
batsnacks: C, A, B, E, D
bunnies: A, D, E, C, B
Holyflare: A, B, C, E, D
If I missed some in the thread, someone tell me so I can update my list. can you just add your order for clarifications sake?
batsnacks: C, A, B, E, D
bunnies: A, D, E, C, B
Holyflare: A, B, C, E, D
ritoky: A, C, B, D, E
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Also, to stick with the theme of freedom, I have will now give my reads in an appropriate manner:
![[image loading]](http://i.gyazo.com/7fb0307a2da8f69bc4c2d27b20de1896.png)
Blue represents the biggest patriot, or town read I have in a cell as of now. Red represents the largest scum read I have in a cell as of now. White is generally speaking, the person in the middle. Some of these are much stronger reads than the others, and as you can clearly see; I have not determined a solid scum read in groups D or E yet. Most of these reads are previously explained in the thread, but if you would like clarification on any of them, first consult this:
![[image loading]](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/c/c5/I_Am_America_(And_So_Can_You!).jpg)
Then, please ask.
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On May 29 2014 05:25 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On May 29 2014 05:20 ritoky wrote:On May 29 2014 05:17 Holyflare wrote:On May 29 2014 05:05 ritoky wrote:
Anyone else want to give their definitive Cell orders before the deadline? Other than mine I have:
batsnacks: C, A, B, E, D
bunnies: A, D, E, C, B
Holyflare: A, B, C, E, D
If I missed some in the thread, someone tell me so I can update my list. can you just add your order for clarifications sake? batsnacks: C, A, B, E, D bunnies: A, D, E, C, B Holyflare: A, B, C, E, D ritoky: A, C, B, D, E why d before e when d is the most unreadable cell there is?
As of now, if it gets there, I trust the members of group E in a LYLO situation more than I trust the members of group D.
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On May 29 2014 05:32 Holyflare wrote:
Wow those reads are like......off :/
So sloosh and mderg are mainly the ones that i'm confused about, sloosh really has done nothing other than falsely "read" the last cell game and talk about kind of nothing. He even asked batsnacks a question that batsnacks had been asked a page before. So why the town read on him at all?
Also, mderg, did you not read the interaction between me and him? His thoughts had not progressed whatsoever since he was last in the thread and tried to add reasoning from the page before his return into his current reads like that's what he meant at the time. What i can't get my head around is you not town reading bunnies over mderg at this point it's increasingly odd.
Group D I was hesitant to make anyone any color at all. It is BY FAR the most flimsy blue read. But if you compare him to tambo, who has literally done crap all in the thread; and ObiWan whom I feel was actively avoiding productive discussion....well, I am left with one conclusion.
And my mderg read is very simple: he admitted he was wrong about me. Given the context in which it happened too, makes it even more believable. He could have very easily come into the thread and called what I was doing BS, cuz right after he did Odin started posting about how I was full of crap too. It is very easy for him to just stick to that line at that point and try and ride it out, but he full on admitted he skimmed and was wrong after rereading some decent reasoning. For now that sells me on him as town.
The big problem I have with E over D, is that in group D I would not exactly be massively opposed to getting rid of all 3; but I have none of those feelings about anyone in group E. I have a general town feel from all 3, which is troublesome.
And as for your recent comment, there's like 12 pages of material between now and that post.
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On May 29 2014 05:51 Holyflare wrote:
Right there's been 12 pages since then and now and you've failed to update us on any of it or pressure anyone but give summarised reads, you had a strong town read on bunnies like the quote i just showed you but nothing in the 12 pages that you've seen so far since that read should have swayed you to her being not-town. Therefore cell E should actually be your STRONGEST cell so far and should be far far far ahead of everything else (apart from your own cell) because layabout would be a very easy lynch for you.
Mderg only admitted he was wrong because he was pressured with evidence to the contrary by Odin (+ points odin). Do mafia under pressure admit they were wrong when there is evidence present or stick it out and flat out lie in the face of an obvious mistake?
Well in my mind, there exist two worlds as of now: the world where MZ and poofter are mafia together and they are so deep in my pockets that it is unbelievable, or the world where Odin is mafia. As you can tell from my reads, I am living in world 2. So if Odin is mafia, his strategy to try and break into the group would be to target me or MZ, and he chose me so far. IF mderg is mafia with Odin, he could very easily helped push that agenda or it was a very clever scheme to distance himself from Odin. I just don't really see them being mafia together in my mind, and as of now Odin is 90% mafia in my mind.
Why have I dropped on bunnies? Well I was asleep when she posted the thing I really didn't like, which was he cell order. The thing I least like about it is that she places her cell 3rd. I just don't get the argument behind it. I am on board with batsnacks about the mayor putting his cell 1st. I could also come to understand that if everyone believes the mayor is 100% town and someone else in their cell is 90% town, then you could put that group last and have "confirmed" towns for the duration of the game. That said, it is not what George Washington has decreed. I also don't like he placement of D or B. I think putting D 2nd makes me skeptical as hell and I don't like her justification for it. I think it might be indicative of belief that it is an easy ML group. I also don't like cell B last, because I think it will be a very clear town win.
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On May 29 2014 06:02 Holyflare wrote:
Also, would someone like to point something suspicious out? Ok, I will!
Why has ritoky kept his poofter town read when he has posted NOTHING for a long time but ritoky has removed bunnies who has posted more often in the past 12 pages? It doesn't add up, his reads are totally suspicious.
Actually point taken on this. Last game in GS he did the same thing. He came out early and gave me HUGE town vibes, then he faded into obscurity and ended up being scum. So I might just have a poor read on him.
But if I follow his logic of a meta case on Palmar, then the meta case on him from last game indicates he is mafia.
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On May 29 2014 06:09 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On May 29 2014 06:05 ritoky wrote:On May 29 2014 05:51 Holyflare wrote:
Right there's been 12 pages since then and now and you've failed to update us on any of it or pressure anyone but give summarised reads, you had a strong town read on bunnies like the quote i just showed you but nothing in the 12 pages that you've seen so far since that read should have swayed you to her being not-town. Therefore cell E should actually be your STRONGEST cell so far and should be far far far ahead of everything else (apart from your own cell) because layabout would be a very easy lynch for you.
Mderg only admitted he was wrong because he was pressured with evidence to the contrary by Odin (+ points odin). Do mafia under pressure admit they were wrong when there is evidence present or stick it out and flat out lie in the face of an obvious mistake? Well in my mind, there exist two worlds as of now: the world where MZ and poofter are mafia together and they are so deep in my pockets that it is unbelievable, or the world where Odin is mafia. As you can tell from my reads, I am living in world 2. So if Odin is mafia, his strategy to try and break into the group would be to target me or MZ, and he chose me so far. IF mderg is mafia with Odin, he could very easily helped push that agenda or it was a very clever scheme to distance himself from Odin. I just don't really see them being mafia together in my mind, and as of now Odin is 90% mafia in my mind. Why have I dropped on bunnies? Well I was asleep when she posted the thing I really didn't like, which was he cell order. The thing I least like about it is that she places her cell 3rd. I just don't get the argument behind it. I am on board with batsnacks about the mayor putting his cell 1st. I could also come to understand that if everyone believes the mayor is 100% town and someone else in their cell is 90% town, then you could put that group last and have "confirmed" towns for the duration of the game. That said, it is not what George Washington has decreed. I also don't like he placement of D or B. I think putting D 2nd makes me skeptical as hell and I don't like her justification for it. I think it might be indicative of belief that it is an easy ML group. I also don't like cell B last, because I think it will be a very clear town win. So odin is mafia and universal town read ritoky and mz are in his group. Who does mafia odin try and target? Universal town read ritoky or could be suspicious mz? Why have you jumped to the totally opposite conclusion of what any mafia trying to push a mislynch would do? Associative cases should also never be used here or in mafia games in general, just because 2 people are doing similar things does not mean they share the same alignment.
Sorry, I don't really understand this post. I guess it's cuz I speak amerikan.
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On May 29 2014 06:17 ShiaoPi wrote:
Cell A is just a tossup currently anyway.
I do not like ritoky, MZ's greatest contribution was just buddying like silly and Odin has not been around long enough for me to make a read on him
What don't you like?
Where on this pie chart do you fall?
![[image loading]](http://www.splc.org/fafuture/2004/images/pg26-1.jpg)
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On May 29 2014 06:19 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On May 29 2014 06:15 ShiaoPi wrote:
it is. you are looking at it from the perspective of how you would play scum. Does not necessarily mean it is optimal or anything or how another player will go at it. I have played scum enough times to get into the mindset of anyone that plays scum. He's never played mafia afaik (from the database) so this would be his FIRST time playing scum. First time scum are super nervous about doing anything out of the ordinary, they fit into trends, they will follow people, they won't speak their mind and they won't go against the grain of the town to speak up on something that no many people agree with. His agenda is to win a point, going after someone with pretty much town reads from 100% of people is not what a first time mafia would do.
So let's just play your scenario. You think that if I was mafia I would be "super nervous about doing anything our of the ordinary", "try to fit into trends", and "follow people"; on the grounds that it is my first time as scum in TL mafia.
So how does pushing for mayor the hardest out of anyone, being the first to post the logic behind my cell order, and making big flashy posts that have caused a lot of people to sheep me; line up with those characteristics?
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On May 29 2014 06:29 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On May 29 2014 06:27 ritoky wrote:On May 29 2014 06:19 Holyflare wrote:On May 29 2014 06:15 ShiaoPi wrote:
it is. you are looking at it from the perspective of how you would play scum. Does not necessarily mean it is optimal or anything or how another player will go at it. I have played scum enough times to get into the mindset of anyone that plays scum. He's never played mafia afaik (from the database) so this would be his FIRST time playing scum. First time scum are super nervous about doing anything out of the ordinary, they fit into trends, they will follow people, they won't speak their mind and they won't go against the grain of the town to speak up on something that no many people agree with. His agenda is to win a point, going after someone with pretty much town reads from 100% of people is not what a first time mafia would do. So let's just play your scenario. You think that if I was mafia I would be "super nervous about doing anything our of the ordinary", "try to fit into trends", and "follow people"; on the grounds that it is my first time as scum in TL mafia. So how does pushing for mayor the hardest out of anyone, being the first to post the logic behind my cell order, and making big flashy posts that have caused a lot of people to sheep me; line up with those characteristics? originally i thought you'd be mafia because your reads don't add up at all but you actually explained your stuff and it made sense in your way, even if it's really wrong and yes your mayor post was an exact copy of mine so you were technically following a trend -.- either way, i think mz is the scum in your group
you know, tbh I am still disappointed that I didn't get a laugh out of you in the thread. I hope it made you laugh irl.
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On May 29 2014 06:25 27ninjabunnies wrote:Show nested quote +On May 29 2014 06:05 ritoky wrote:On May 29 2014 05:51 Holyflare wrote:
Right there's been 12 pages since then and now and you've failed to update us on any of it or pressure anyone but give summarised reads, you had a strong town read on bunnies like the quote i just showed you but nothing in the 12 pages that you've seen so far since that read should have swayed you to her being not-town. Therefore cell E should actually be your STRONGEST cell so far and should be far far far ahead of everything else (apart from your own cell) because layabout would be a very easy lynch for you.
Mderg only admitted he was wrong because he was pressured with evidence to the contrary by Odin (+ points odin). Do mafia under pressure admit they were wrong when there is evidence present or stick it out and flat out lie in the face of an obvious mistake? Well in my mind, there exist two worlds as of now: the world where MZ and poofter are mafia together and they are so deep in my pockets that it is unbelievable, or the world where Odin is mafia. As you can tell from my reads, I am living in world 2. So if Odin is mafia, his strategy to try and break into the group would be to target me or MZ, and he chose me so far. IF mderg is mafia with Odin, he could very easily helped push that agenda or it was a very clever scheme to distance himself from Odin. I just don't really see them being mafia together in my mind, and as of now Odin is 90% mafia in my mind. Why have I dropped on bunnies? Well I was asleep when she posted the thing I really didn't like, which was he cell order. The thing I least like about it is that she places her cell 3rd. I just don't get the argument behind it. I am on board with batsnacks about the mayor putting his cell 1st. I could also come to understand that if everyone believes the mayor is 100% town and someone else in their cell is 90% town, then you could put that group last and have "confirmed" towns for the duration of the game. That said, it is not what George Washington has decreed. I also don't like he placement of D or B. I think putting D 2nd makes me skeptical as hell and I don't like her justification for it. I think it might be indicative of belief that it is an easy ML group. I also don't like cell B last, because I think it will be a very clear town win. I dont really see your justification for putting my group last. Do you think this group would be better as a final lylo situation, especially with one person in the cell who really isnt posting much? Also, i feel i have a good read on tamburini in general, so i wouldnt mind him going second to hear him talk more. Why would I want a mislynch? Are you calling me mafia because of my cell order?
I think Cell A is obvious, Cell C will generate a lot of alignment indicative information, Cell B will be obvious, E I have no Idea, and D I don't trust in final LYLO.
Do I think you're mafia because of your cell order? No, but I think it drops you below mderg into 2nd most townie in your cell as of now.
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@HF could you explain your Meapak read?
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##Cell Order: A, C, B, D, E
![[image loading]](http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-pynF9HVZebk/TkZ9gyI1EDI/AAAAAAAAA6U/mSTeLgvconY/s1600/Independence+Day+Wallpapers+America+USA+_2.jpg)
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To all those who questioned my order here is my response:
![[image loading]](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/9f/BornInTheUSASingle.jpg)
The land that invented electricity, science, the internet, global warming, the doughnut, and porn; filled me with the power of freedom, and I simply did her great will, and the will of the founding fathers.
On another note, I will actually read what has happened since then, and if anyone has any questions I will gladly respond.
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EPT
