EPTNewbie Mini Mafia LV - Page 4
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
@sqrt: I think his post just above yours is relatively straightforward about his other targets (mtamburini / yell0w / sweetfrost) | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
@sqrt: It seems like one indicator you like to use to feel towny about people is that the player is contributing, making reads, trying to figure out the game, etc. Earlier you said meat may be town when he wasn't talking much. Given the posts meat did make, what about them makes you opposed to lynching him? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
 ) | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
My concern or weakness with a SweetFrost lynch (mentioned earlier) is that I don't feel that anyone is really putting much effort into defending SweetFrost. I don't think anyone has given a townread of SweetFrost (?) which is strange seen even Meat has managed to pull a semi-townread. I don't feel too bad about that, however, as there are some competing wagons. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I'm fine with mtamburini keeping quiet about his shot for now, as I said it should get declared just before night ends. But, I still think my point on Eden is fair (even if he thinks mtamburini is SK, if he thinks the SK is going to shoot scum then there's no reason to lynch the SK tonight). sqrt Sqrt has some votes and I want to at least explain my feelings on him a little better. I don't really see votes on him as scummy because my reluctance to lynch him d1 is largely meta-based, so it's understandable other people would feel differently. I do not read sqrt as a solid town, but here's why I tend to discount the current things that people feel are scummy: (1) Post length sqrt's short comments/posts are not a good indicator that he is scum. - In Newbie Mini Mafia LIV sqrt was a medic. Take a quick look at his filter in that game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/445959-newbie-mini-mafia-liv?user=sqrtofneg1&view=all - In Newbie Mini Mafia LIII sqrt was vanilla town. Take a quick look at his filter in that game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/444775-newbie-mini-mafia-liii?user=sqrtofneg1&view=all In both of those games he was town, and made mostly short posts with occasional longer posts. This doesn't mean sqrt is town. But, I think it does mean sqrt can't reliably be seen as scum based on making short posts. (2) Weird Reads In LIV, as an observer I really suspected sqrt strongly based on his reads (Eden could confirm this from the /obs). Some of sqrt's shifting reads felt really off to me - for instance, he read a player (Tolkien) as scummy d1 for a trap Tolkien claimed to have made, then read him as towny d2 for the same trap. Sqrt ended up getting mislynched, and I think a fair part of that was due to explaining his reads poorly. I'm not saying "excuse sqrt's bad reads" - actually, I think sqrt was the only player alive at the end of the game who suspected one of the mafia (Onceking). But, I think looking at some of the other things he's done may be a better indication. I don't know sqrt's scum game so any meta read is limited to that, more or less (I can't say what he does as scum since I haven't seen him as scum yet). If it doesn't persuade you that's fine, but I hope it at least pushes sqrt down a bit and Sweetfrost up by comparison. @mtamburini and @Eden: You were each in a game with sqrt, do you have any thoughts on his play this game? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Things I would like you to comment on: (1) What do you think of tamburini's vigilante claim? (2) Does my post here ( http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/447955-newbie-mini-mafia-lv?page=33#648 ) make you feel differently on sqrt? It's fine if your answer is no, but I want to at least know that you considered it and still wanted to keep your vote on sqrt. (3) dfs also voted for sqrt. Could you give a read of him? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
[QUOTE]On May 02 2014 05:00 sqrtofneg1 wrote: [QUOTE]On May 02 2014 04:59 27ninjabunnies wrote: I honestly don't think that tamburini should out his shot.[/QUOTE] Oh yes before the end of night 1, I agree. however right now, no. For this reason, mafia can't double stack on his kill if they don't know who it is. [/QUOTE] I feel a double stack is possible but unlikely, but this is something I probably won't want to discuss until d2 so if you care about it and want to discuss it remind me then | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
1) Why does a SK enter thread the way mtamburini did? 2) Do you think SK is more likely to take veteran-power or scan immunity? @ninjabunnies if you are around I'd like you to answer the second one since you may feel differently as a video player. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
(1) I don't think a serial killer begins the game by calling himself a town leader, and (2) I think if tamburini is serial killer, he would take bulletproof. If he doesn't, claiming vigilante is very risky as scum may shoot him suspecting he is a vigilante. That seems like a greater risk than check-immunity, especially since this setup allows godfather/framer/miller so there's potential to argue over a bad looking cop check... it's harder to argue with being dead | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Your vote on ahswtini isn't likely to get more support, particularly since you are not here to argue for the lynch. If the votes are close between the other players (as they are) it's easy for mafia to move a few votes to avoid lynching scum. -- I will say SweetFrost has done something that reminds me of Cavalinho d1 my first forum game that is town-indicative to me... I'll think about it a bit. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
This is at least somewhat town indicative to me because I think scum could try to live longer- scum Sweetfrost could say that after looking at tamburini's claim it's untrustworthy and vote for him to hope at least one more vote moves over. I am not really happy with the tamburini wagon so I don't want to swap, but it is a concern for me with so little time left. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
If Sweet didn't, it indicates to me either (a) maybe sweet is scum and tamburini is also scum; (b) maybe sweet is town and believes mtamburini's claim (why I asked about it); or (c) sweet just didn't realize the potential to survive. And yeah that's what I was referring to with cavalinho (where he could have voted someone else to survive) - I think he didn't move the vote because he wasn't sure how majorities worked and maybe also was not present for the lynch. I guess deadline is up so we'll see how it goes.  (btw if there's any new players, posting the popcorn smiley is a very important part of forum mafia) | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I'm going to focus on work for a few hours since we don't have pending deadlines but I'll try to see if I can draw anything from the votes when I get back. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I think talking at night is good. Just generally, don't claim a role or an action unless it's just before deadline. I feel we should be looking at the votes for yesterday so I'll do that a little now. -- Vote thoughts- (1) Vote Spread If the prevailing wagons (sweetfrost we know was not; mtamburini we think is not) are both non-scum, then mafia has little reason to join the wagons since they don't have a preference as to who ends up getting lynched. (2) I feel Eden is less likely to be scum based on his activity around the vote. This is based on Eden asking players to move onto mtamburini from SweetFrost. If we go with the prevailing thoughts that mtamburini is probably vigilante/sk (not scum), it seems like scum-Eden wouldn't have a strong preference between the two because either way, the lynch gets a non-scum. One way this explanation might make sense is if Eden was trying to save yell0w by killing vig/sk (mtamburini). I think this is pretty unlikely, however, because an Eden/yell0w scumteam seems inconsistent with Eden's push onto yell0w d1. (3) I have a thought on existence of certain roles based on the vote patterns, but it's not something I want to discuss right now. (4) We do see Epishade and sqrt voting together (on Eden and Sweetfrost). Both also appear in each others' filters quite a bit. @sqrt: Can you explain your current reads on Epishade & dravenor? @Epishade: Can you explain current reads on sqrt & dravenor? I'm interested in including reads on dravenor because he ended the day voting on Epishade. ----------------- | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
- Mafia KP is always going to be one. If no kill comes from scum, it's due to (a) a roleblocker targeting the scumplayer who is doing the kill; (b) jailer protection on the kill target; (c) serial killer protection taking a hit; (d) mafia not killing. Based on that, if we see more than one kill tonight, we know there is at least one vigilante/serial killer in the game. - If you are roleblocked tonight, you should be notified (even if you have no role). I think town should almost always claim if they are roleblocked. There is a potential downside (ex: it can inform scum there is a town roleblocker/jailer) but I feel it's usually more beneficial to town. I have also have an idea about scum/tamburini night actions but those can come tomorrow if I'm alive or maybe at the end of night. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Remember if you are town you should help with analysis and comments, not just shooting. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On May 02 2014 09:57 Epishade wrote: Very well, I can wait until the next day to make my case if I'm still alive. If this is really a concern, just post your case shortly before the deadline. | ||
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