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Cell Mini Mafia

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
March 25 2014 08:29 GMT
#6
/in
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
March 26 2014 13:03 GMT
#34
[image loading]

This is allowed, rite?
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
April 02 2014 23:00 GMT
#1170
Posting here to let others know I'm not dead. I wasn't available the first evening the game was posted, and all my time today has gone down to a project we were given with the most retarded deadline ever. Finally almost done with it, so about to catch up on the thread. Expect one or two bigger posts in the morning or so unless I fall asleep, in which case it'll be afternoon. After sleep I'll be around till deadline, skipping uni tomorrow. Fml.
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
April 03 2014 01:04 GMT
#1200
On April 02 2014 03:47 prplhz wrote:
so maybe the mayor doesn't matter much


I personally think the mayor matters quite a bit. Both whom is chosen and what that mayor's choices are.
In general I think the best play is to either vote a strong townread the mayor (to ensure we will gain the order we want), or then go for a player that we are in general unsure about to possibly gain information, depending on if they'll follow the requests of the majority of townspeople or go against it.

On April 02 2014 03:48 Balla24 wrote:
I think we order the cells in order from weakest mafia cell to strongest mafia cell, that way we get the easy mafia lynches out of the way faster and give ourselves more of a chance to win faster and a lot of time to simmer with the stronger players as mafia (rayn, Holyflare, Palmar just looking at this)

I would probably put 4 -> 5 -> 3 -> 1 -> 2 (havent put much thought into it which is the strongest yet just first impressions)


I am a bit curious about the logic behind this. Does this mean you are confident that we will be able to find out the suspected strong scum players if given enough time, rather than enable the mafia to control the town even better? I also don't think ranking players at this point in the game for their potential threats is necessarily the best way to go about it, when there is still plenty of discussion ahead which may actually get us somewhere, rather than go about it guesstimating. How I see it is if we are certain to have found scum in a cell, we should lynch that cell early on.

On April 02 2014 04:08 prplhz wrote:
i think it would be a great idea if people mainly focused on their own cell. that doesn't mean that you shouldn't tell the thread if you have reads on other people but if you are unfocused it makes very good sense to look at your own cell simply because you have a 50/50 chance there.


As was pointed out short after, this is not a very good idea. After we've had a mayor decide the order however, pretty much all attention should be on the cell that is being lynched, playing the game a match at a time and then using the information from the previous rounds to our advantage in the following ones.

General note: Not liking the people who are talking about which order we should lynch the cells in at the start of the game, such as Sentinel.

+ Show Spoiler +
On April 02 2014 04:22 raynpelikonoshi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 02 2014 04:13 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
On April 02 2014 04:05 prplhz wrote:
On April 02 2014 04:02 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
On April 02 2014 03:57 Koshi wrote:
On April 02 2014 03:44 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
Also, why do I have to get stuck with Palmar

I don't understand this. Explain the not happy face.

Palmar is probably the player I have the hardest time reading in this game. It's going to be hard trying to figure the scum in my own cell, even.

seriously? it's 50/50, right? how can that be so worrying?

Because lynching by coinflip is such a popular strategy on this site, right?

And then kush is half of the other one lol...

So my very first impression:

If I wasn't in this group (let's just say, Group 6), my first-guess order would be 3 -> 4 -> 2 -> 5 -> 1. I think I'll have an easier time with reading the people in the last two groups - I've played with them more recently, or they're just more straightforward overall. Especially rayn, koshi and gum.

As a member of group 3 I still like that order because I don't have to play for a long time, although Coag's not too unpredictable, kush you can usually see once you wade past all the bullshit, and Palmar... I'll think of something.

Group 2 is my neutral people - Holyflare is the only one I've had experience with. Group 4 really depends on how erratic Slam becomes over the course of the game.

Red and green, which is it? Do you want the groups with people you have an easy time reading to go before you or do you want to go first? If you can read certain people why don't you want those groups go before you? Why instead offer yourself to go first, as if you read the people you can read correctly and lynch mafia your group will become easier to figure out later as you become obviously town.

I don't get this post Sentinel, it's really messy. What do you want here?

~rayn


The slight contradiction in the above post got pointed out well, but what it made me rethink was my earlier comment about concentrating on the cell up at a time. I still do mostly agree with that notion, but the players that are in the lynched cell should provide their analysis on others before dying off, as it could give us crucial information to continue with.

+ Show Spoiler +
On April 02 2014 04:42 LSB wrote:
The most important feature of cell mafia is the ability to cull inactive players as soon as possible. This is interesting because this allows the game to maintain a level of activity and analysis demanded for the full duration, rather than it being a game between lurkers at lylo.

Activity is very town favored because it is easier to find mafia if everyone has to speak, than throw darts at lurkers.



I am going to rank players based on what I remember based on the most recent game in the TL mafia database

A - Active Players, solid contributions and good amount of posts
IL - Inactive or Lurking players, little thread presence in the last game

This raiting is mainly to determine inactivity. Bold is for emphasis

I didn't look to hard, but if you had at least 8 pages of posts I considered you active and if you had long posts I counted you as active

Cell 1
A - Raynpelikonoshi - Probably the most active player on the forums
A - Gumshoe - Active in A quiet game
A - Steveling http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/311554-surprisingly-normal-mini-mafia-vii?user=Steveling&page=4

Cell 2
A Holyflare - Active in LXIII
IL Tehpoofter - Modkilled for inactivity last game
IL mderg - Inactive last game he played. It was 2 years ago http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/309405-werewolves-invade-teamliquid-ii?user=mderg

Cell 3
A Palmar - Active in Default Suspicions
IL Sentinel - Self admitted inactive and not in for the long haul
? Coagulation - Kushm4sta is active, but Coag can't post his seal.

Cell 4
A Balla24 - Active in Default Suspicions
A LSB
IL Alakaslam - Pretends to be Chez, but never back it up with analysis.

Cell 5
A Getmoript - Previous Hydra was active
A prplhz - Active in Default supsions
A Cephiro - Active in GMB



If we go by this we see that

Cell 1 and Cell 5 contain all active players.
Cell 2 contains two inactive players
Cell 3/4 contain at least one inactive player.

Based on this, my ideal order would be
2,3,4,5,1. Or 2,3,4,1,5

Ultimentally this data would be best supplimented by seeing day 1 post counts.



Fairly interesting post by LSB, his first post with a clear agenda. While I personally like the idea of being able to cut off the inactives players to start with, once the initial order is decided it cannot be changed. I don't think that the first 48 hours will necessarily tell us enough as for the players activities, and if we have lynch targets for reasons other than inactivity, we should go for those first in my opinion.

On April 02 2014 04:47 prplhz wrote:
"unreadable" as in "having them around probably will not give you any information to work with". at the same time lynching into unreadables might give us a good idea about the people left in the town, rather than autolynching someone who claimed scum.

if there's some ezpz town read in a group i think it would make sense to have them around for long, they can help town focus and will not cause a distraction.


I don't really understand the bolded. Lynching into a cell which has almost no interaction with players outside of it, how will that help us find remaining scum or town? Don't get me wrong, I don't want to keep inactives around till endgame, but I don't understand prplhz logic here. How does lynching unreadables -> information about remaining townies? Is there something obvious that I'm missing or is there simply no sense in this follow-up?

On April 02 2014 04:54 raynpelikonoshi wrote:
Actually this "which group to lynch first" is really stupid for the next 40 hours.
Townie points for the person who first tells why.

~rayn

+ townie points for rayn for being the first one to bring this up.

On April 02 2014 04:55 prplhz wrote:
well because if we find scum then we'll pick his group first, duh

but it's a good thing to just talk about

I don't really like the way he makes it sound like it was incredibly obvious, but still everyone was eagerly rambling on about the group order up to this point. And the addition about it being a good thing to just talk about? We're here to find mafia, not to just chat. Is discussing group orders the best way for us to find mafia? I doubt it.

I liked getmoript's entry. But then this. This hideous thing, spoilered below.
+ Show Spoiler +
On April 02 2014 05:02 getmoript wrote:
So I've skimmed so far.
Cell 1
Raynpelikonoshi--Very tempted to lynch because I can't read Koshi and I don't think Rayn has called me super town yet
Gumshoe--solid player with alright reads generally but pretty obvious as scum
Steveling--???

Cell 2
Holyflare-scum
Tehpoofter--very good player, still adjusting to forum, low volume poster
mderg--?????

Cell 3
Palmar--strong player
Sentinel--I don't really remember him much
Coagulation--Policy lynch option, both lurkers

Cell 4
Balla24--meh
LSB--meh
Alakaslam--likely scum

Cell 5
Getmoript--clearly town, great at endgame, super stronk townie
prplhz--decent player, generally low volume, scummy first post
Cephiro--solid playler

Rayn I'm having a hard time reading Koshi... Why wouldn't he push himself for mayor on D1/0 whatever it is today?

Like Cell 2 is obviously the best first lynch. HF busses as scum and has ok reads as town. I'd love to policy lynch him and under no circumstances should he ever be allowed to mid-late game. Cell 3 should be the third lynch 100%. Palmar is someone who, for lack of a better lynch, we can lynch and then sheep his reads; I'm tempted to move this up to slot 2 because Palmer tends to get worse as time goes on. Cell 4 should probably be the second lynch though because they're mostly unreadable and I want to lynch Alakaslam so that makes that pretty easy. Cell 1 is clearly next because me and rayn usually click on things and in case town hasn't won by then me and Rayn should easily be able to finish it off or I'll hammer Rayn to win the game for town.
2->4->3->1->5 is clearly the best pattern and me/Cav should 100% be the mayor. Like it's obvious, I refuse to let anyone else be the mayor and will policy lynch anyone who goes against me as mayor.

This makes so little sense it makes me cringe. Classifying the players in the 5 cells at this point, including some he has no idea about is just stupid. It has no basis. It's also extremely contradictory. Why does getmoript what Cell 2 lynched first when he is so sure about Holy? The way he explains himself I understand that he reads HF well if he's scum, and that HF can be an asset to town when town. Why would you want to get rid of a player like that early on? Policy lynching at start with no proper reasoning? Just... what. The other cells have reasons that make a bit more sense, but I find it contradictory that getmoript whom earlier called rayn out for not having realized why the order discussion is not very fruitful and liking prp's post, now goes straight into talking about order himself as his first agenda, when half of the players in the game haven't even showed up yet.

On April 02 2014 05:12 LSB wrote:
However I think it is pretty foolhardy to determine the order of five groups by reads based. It would be a much better bet to hedge for activity.


The post before this where LSB explains what rayn is likely to trying to hint at I like. I don't however like how much he's pushing the activity ordering. Just as 48 hours gives you a limited amount of information readwise, it also gives a limited amount of information activity-wise. (Personal opinion.) If there are available reads that are clear enough, I'd always take them before an inactivity policy lynch. Not to mention that while deciding the order, one has to account for the new information that inevitably comes up before reaching a certain group.

On April 02 2014 05:17 prplhz wrote:
just wut

why the frig you want the guy who busses as scum and has good reads as town to be out of the game as soon as possible?


+ for pointing out the exact thing same about getmoript as I thought of when I read it.

General note: The back and forth between raykosh+getmo starts looking like it'll become an unreadable clusterfuck, I hope not.

+ Show Spoiler +
On April 02 2014 05:38 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 02 2014 05:37 getmoript wrote:
On April 02 2014 05:34 raynpelikonoshi wrote:
geript explain to me why you talk about policy lynching people in a game where policy lynching is not needed & is awful?

~rayn

1. Because I like to policy lynch
2. Because the only flips we get are lynched players and quite frankly, after seeing palmer scumteam w/ DP and other things I want to flip palmar because he had very good reads that should be considered later on in the game. Knowing him as town is a HUGE boon.
3. Policy lynching HF is fun

So by #2 you would allow scum to only have to win two rounds in exchange for knowing Palmar is town?




Super bad post by getmoript. #1 #3 are just trolling and/or being stupid. #2 is just bad. So you want to lynch palmar because if he's town, you're just gonna believe his reads and trust in them and win the game like that, and if he's scum, then yay 1 scum down? Just no, no no no. Horrible reasoning for wanting to lynch a player that hasn't even posted at that point of the game.

General note: Does gumshoe post anything but useless filler?
General note 2: Could say almost the same about mderg.

+ Show Spoiler +
On April 02 2014 06:33 getmoript wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 02 2014 06:23 raynpelikonoshi wrote:
How about you tell me why do you want to lynch townies to prove their reads good instead of lynching scum which results to the same, geript?

~rayn

Me wanting to lynch HF is 100% not alignment indicative and you know that. We both know he can bus hard as scum and we both know his town game is decent. Me wanting to lynch him is more me wanting to lynch him. Like, obviously if I have a scumread on one of the other two, then I'm going to lynch my scumread. That's not going to make me want to policy lynch HF anyless. More than policy lynching him though, I 100% don't like him living past day 1; he's fully capable of pied pipering the town into stupidity as scum and one that I don't trust allowing him to live.

As for policy lynching palmar, it's something that I think is useful but that really depends on where the game is at when he comes up for lynch. Like if we're up 2-0 and I don't have a good read on any of those 3, then I want to lynch Palmer because we get to know that his opinions are trustworthy for the last 2 lynches. If it's 1-1, then it's a good bit tougher. Obviously if it's 0-2 then you go to lynch scum. It's something I've been thinking of since he joined but knew would depend on who's in his group and what the situation would be and (of course my alignment). It's by no means a flat out, LYNCH PALMER WITH FIRE TO GET INFORMATION UNDER EVERY CIRCUMSTANCE POLICY LYNCH. It's a strategy to maximize information but clearly situation dependent on where/when his group comes up and where we're sitting int he game.
~g


More text from getmoript I don't like. Main point why: Given the confidence in his own play clearly shown in his posts so far, why is he 1) so afraid of the possibility of a scum holyflare, when he's shown confidence in understanding holyflare's play earlier. 2) So dependant on getting "good information" from Palmar like he's some sort of god-level-player who will without question be correct and worth trusting if he flips town. Even the best players can be wrong. The thing is, we're not here to play "sheep the most experienced players", especially not with the amount of confidence getmoript is showing off. Which is exactly why I find it so weird that he insists on these two things.

Closure note: This is going to take long. Posting my thoughts as I catch up, here's up to end of P15. Small break.
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
April 03 2014 01:43 GMT
#1201
Need some sleep. Trying to get a few hours, enough to be able to type my thoughts without falling on the keyboard. Going to do my best to be an asset for town before the deadline for mayoral elections, and obviously after.
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
April 03 2014 19:47 GMT
#1653
##Vote: Cephiro
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
April 04 2014 04:09 GMT
#1834
On April 02 2014 07:18 Palmar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 02 2014 07:16 prplhz wrote:
On April 02 2014 07:12 Palmar wrote:
how about you guys just let me be the major, and then I select my group to go first?

Also sentinel why do you think I'm unreadable? I'm like one of the most easy players on TL to read.

you know, you can make reads on d1 even if you're not up for lynch on d1.

Sure, but it feels a lot easier to just have to read two filters really. I like the attention.


Something to think about: Why does Palmar seem like he doesn't care what happens in other groups at all, he just wants his own done without contributing to the others. Is this really how a townie would approach this game? Even though it may seem like it, this setup has more to it than just a bo5 lylos, they're all connected to each other instead of being separate.

General note: rayn's frustration seems genuine. + for advocating for what actually wins us the game, lynching scum
If we can lynch scum, we lynch scum. Don't like gumshoe's post regarding the issue, as demonstrated in the following quotes:

On April 02 2014 07:16 raynpelikonoshi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 02 2014 07:12 gumshoe wrote:
On April 02 2014 06:51 raynpelikonoshi wrote:
On April 02 2014 06:44 gumshoe wrote:
On April 02 2014 06:42 Palmar wrote:
I like the redundant ~rayn part of your posts.

I'm okay with going in on day 1 with my group. It's by far my best day anyway.


THANK YOU. Dammit why dont other people get this?

Because should not be decided right now.
D2 can be set in stone. D1 can't.

D1 should be the group that has 2 people that are incredible easy to read as town and are confirmed town. I think discussing a D1 lynch group should be done after 35h in this game.


That is exceptionally optimistic of you Rayn to think well catch scum easy before day 1, but honestly if were playing it that way, day 1 should be someone whose alignment we need to know the most, not someone whose guaranteed scum, I mean if your so certain geript is mafia just put him in slot 3(so hes at least guaranteed to be killed before town loses) and have 1 and 2 reserved for people with large influence but questionable loyalties.


seriously bro? Not guaranteed scum?

D1 is not some fucking egotripping lynch in which we lynch the loudest townie who thinks he fucking solved the game. Which you seem to indicate.

If anything we lynch scum in the group of the best D1 player in the game and are guaranteed that he and the third are townies and giving an honest opinion.

Which goes back to LYNCH FUCKING SCUM AND NOTHING ELSE.


General note: Confused about why Alakaslam is being considered the only option for scum without having really done anything. It's certainly not a pro-town trait, but at this point I don't think LSB & Balla have confirmed themselves as town either. (Given they do look better for having posted to some extent alone.)

On April 02 2014 08:52 gumshoe wrote:
I was offering an olive branch to see your reaction. No I wasn't honestly going after Steve with so little, but you know I'm capable of weird arguments like that so If your scum you have to consider 2 things, if I'm genuine and if your better off tentatively agreeing with me or turning on me for that silly read.


Not liking this post by gumshoe at all. "I faked something since I wanted to see your reaction" is probably one of the things I use most as scum, especially if I'm having trouble covering up something. The other situation where I use it a lot is if I'm trying to make everyone believe in some nonexistant super plan due to whatever reason -> also when I'm lying. This is a personal feeling due to the way I use it in my play, but I feel it's scummy. I don't really see how the latter part in his post changes if we assume rayn to be town instead of scum either. He'd still have to consider whether gumshoe was being genuine or if he picked up on something.

On April 02 2014 08:55 Tehpoofter wrote:
So looking at this setup when it was first announced I really wanted to roll scum in it because its really scum favored. I think in this setup the ideal play for scum would be to just make cases on people in their own cell and try to get one of them either read as town or more ideally read as scum early and often. As scum you basically do your job if you accomplish a misslynch on the day your cell comes up for lynch. I therefore think that it is not very advantageous for people to say anything about people in their own cells cause as town the way we can win is by making connections between people in different cells. So I will be posting and making reads on the people outside of my cell only until it comes time for my cell to be up for debate then obviously I will make my reads known on them at that point but I think before then having to establish connections and conversations with those outside of your cell is the best plan for town and those not doing so will lean more scummy to me.


Don't like this post. If you reverse the logic, that would be saying that a townie's job is done if they manage to find the scum in their own group. It's a good result, but it doesn't mean one couldn't do better. As he says we do need connections between people in different cells. But I think there is a higher chance of those connections to be made if the discussion involves both their own group and others. More information and opinions is rarely detrimental for town. Waiting till your own cell is up for debate is fine if you're in the last group, but if you end up being in the first group, your opinions are extremely crucial. Even though for everyone outside the group the chances are 33/33/33, the 50/50 chance from a player's perspective that is in the group automatically causes him to think differently about the situation, and is also reflected in the posts and thoughts. Which may enable others to pick up on something that they otherwise wouldn't have.

On April 02 2014 08:57 Tehpoofter wrote:
I don't like this first post by geript his first post of the game is to go out and accuse someone who is in his cell. I find that really scummy because of how this game is setup. Just in general I find it scummy because of how this setup looks to me. He also reaches out to rayn and from what I know of rayn he is a tunneling type player who will push push push for a read so if geript as scum can get town rayn thinking prplhz is already scum right off the bat this is ideal for him. I think he might have been trying to accomplish that. here. This is the exact thing I brought up in my first post about how I think scum would ideally play this game to give them the best chance at winning.


You talk about how you find getmoript's entrance post scummy. You base your claim on "how the game is setup", but you don't explain your reasoning further. Then you talk about how if getmoript is scum and could get a town rayn thinking prplhz is the scum....

First off, you make a lot of assumptions here already. Secondarily, I personally can't see anything in getmoript's first post that would point towards him trying to make prplhz is scum. Even by process of elimination, if you were thinking that he's trying to establish himself to rayn as a townie by attacking him, there would be still both me and prplhz to choose from. I think your logic is flawed, and I think this comes from scum who hasn't quite thought things through enough.

On April 02 2014 09:34 gumshoe wrote:
2' because confirmed scum isn't going anywhere. They can be literally killed at any time and I rather lynch question marks while everyone is still invested in the game.?


By lynching confirmed scum you get more time to figure out the question marks. By lynching a question mark you may give the scum an advantage. Fact is, being up or down even one point in a Bo5 changes one's mindset on how to approach the game. We're here to lynch scum to win, not to see how many mislynches we can make and still win. Also, leaving someone that is certainly scum for later is always a bad idea. Wouldn't be the first time someone talks their way out of it, or manages to cause enough chaos for the townies to be mislead about the remaining scum.

On April 02 2014 09:51 gumshoe wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 02 2014 09:45 Alakaslam wrote:
Hmmm... That would be

Does iOS7 go on the pads? Didn't know that.

Anyway what is your gameplan for attacking this problem of losing two town voices every lynch?

In fact is anyone considering that angle?


A scum one is lost as well, so It feels like a problem that evens itself out honestly. Basically I dont think it's a factor that supersedes questionable alignment or outright scumminess(which is probally how we should considering the order, by who we need to flip the most in terms of information and results.)


That's actually a sentence by Alakaslam that I like a lot. And on the contrary, gumshoe's reaction to it I don't like at all.
The amount of town / mafia players goes like this:
10/5 - 8/4 - 6/3 - 4/2 - 2/1
3 2½ 2 1½ 1

With the lower number being the amount of town players voting wrong causing a mafia win. Now, we have to remember that this is assuming scum would all vote on someone else than their own members, which I don't see happening during the first rounds, since if a scum was lynched regardless, it'd make the majority of the remaining scum players look bad and make it an uphill battle for them. The thing is, even though the Town:Mafia ratio stays at a fixed 2:1 ratio, the number of players that need to be swayed towards the wrong opinion doesn't. I personally see the lategame quite scum-favoured, which is why in my opinion it's vital that we go for our surest lynch options for scum first.

On April 02 2014 10:26 Tehpoofter wrote:
I agree that if you can get the town read on someone in your group you should do that but I think the point is you should be evaluating publicly the people outside of your group because as scum you could just focus on your two people in the group and muddie up the thread with bs back and forth every day. I feel like today we should be reading everyone else and then each day focus on the cell at hand. I just want to avoid a situation where people focus only on our groups and town has no really good connections to work off. Basically right now you should be making your own notes on a case against people in your cell you think might be scum/town however you want to do it but not really letting those be known but focusing more on reading those outside of your cell because as town you will be making connections with no outside agenda. This makes the game harder for scum because they are forced to make connections they don't want to make and the only way town wins this game is through connections guaranteed.


And why should you hide reads about your own group? If you are town and have a correct read on one of the other two players in your cell as scum, and are able to be convincing enough, it forces the other scum to react or sack their teammate. How others react to your reads, especially if you have a strong read with good analysis & reasoning to back it up, can change the flow of the game quite a bit. I do agree that a back & forth bs is unneeded, but keeping your reads hidden doesn't really give us anything in this setup. (Unless you want to try and bait scum, by letting them think they are not under pressure, but trust me, that rarely ends up well, I've tried and failed enough to know.)

On April 02 2014 10:45 Tehpoofter wrote:
Well yeah thats the best scenario and you SHOULD be making connections in your own group for sure like I'm reading you and the mderg guy but I think giving public opinions of your own cell during this day is silly. You should be sharing your views on people outside your cell if you find scum outside they bad ass lets get em boys!! but you should be making those connections public because that is harder for scum to do to openly talk about other group because they might have to talk to their scum teammates or give a strong read on them one way or the other something they would NEVER have to do talking about their own group. Its easy as both alignments to read your own group just find one person who is scummy or super townie and its solved but that doesn't help the rest of town. Inherently we have a 66% chance of lynching wrong each day and we have 5 days so if we random lynched every day we lose so building connections outside of your own group is important.

The summary of the plan Scum hunt outside your group openly and scum hunt inside your group privately until its your lynch day then bring it all out so that mafia has a harder time not connecting with their team.


Okay yeah, at this point this is just trying way too hard. Think about the pro-scum points of not talking about your own group.
One would not have to commit to faking a read on either of the two players, nor looking particularly townie since they'd be concentrating on the other groups only. As I mentioned before, I personally also believe that connections do need to be made to outside groups, but not at the cost of ignoring or keeping your reads about your own group secret. I think poofter is pushing this so hard to avoid having to commit into creating false reads at this point in the game, which could easily contradict him later. -> I believe that Tehpoofter is scum in Cell 2.


+ Show Spoiler +
On April 02 2014 10:51 Tehpoofter wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 02 2014 10:49 raynpelikonoshi wrote:
On April 02 2014 10:45 Tehpoofter wrote:
The summary of the plan Scum hunt outside your group openly and scum hunt inside your group privately until its your lynch day then bring it all out so that mafia has a harder time not connecting with their team.

Drop this line of thinking right now. For other people they need to read 3 people in your group to find 1 mafia. For you you need to read only 2 people. You have advantage if you are town. If you share your thoughts on your cell aswell it gives other people a better read on you, which makes it easier for them to read you. Reads like "well this dude is town so this other dude must be scum" are shit and not worth sharing because it hinges on you being town and other people do not know if you are town or not, but legit reads. Always share. Makes my work solving the game much easier.

~rayn



I will read my group and am reading my group but posting about it today I find useless and if you don't want to do that thats your prerogative but I think its an awesome idea and I'm going to do it either way cause I think its way more townie to do so. I will give my reads come cell 2 lynch day.


This exchange in my opinion just confirms my thoughts, even after being explained by rayn why it's a bad idea to keep the reads to yourself, he insists on not doing that.

On April 02 2014 11:08 Tehpoofter wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 02 2014 10:54 Holyflare wrote:
Comment on what you think of mdergs. You just said we should auto lynch 100% scum and your read on him weighs into that.

I will not be commenting on what I think you or mderg's alignment is until its day 2's lynch day. I'm looking for scum elsewhere.


... And more of the same. Let's look at this with an example. Your mission is to find a red ball. Do you pick from the basket that has 1 red, and 1 blue ball (50%), or do you pick from a big basket that has 4 red balls and 8 blue balls (33%).

Exactly. Yet he for some reason insists on ignoring the smaller basket completely for now.

On April 02 2014 11:25 raynpelikonoshi wrote:
Nobody is asking you to comment ONLY on your group.
We are asking you to comment on your group AND OTHER GROUPS, because we have 5 groups where each one has one mafia. If you are mafia you need to make up a shit read one one person in your group, so yes, it's fucking scummy to not comment on your own group.

~rayn

^ Rayn summarizes my thoughts quite well shortly afterwards.

+ Show Spoiler +
On April 02 2014 11:34 Tehpoofter wrote:
@balla. I read rayn as town and he has read Slam well in the games I've seen and both of them have stated that rayn reads Slam well. So I was saying that I read Slam as town from those couple posts and was asking rayn what he thought of that. He then posted after that

Show nested quote +
On April 02 2014 10:42 raynpelikonoshi wrote:
Tehpoofter yes he is scum. Also Balla looks town and LSB looks okayish (but then again i have really hard time understanding LSB usually in games so maybe this means he is supertown).

~rayn


I decided since I was wrong about slam in the titanic game and rayn was very quickly able to determine his alignment as town and I read rayn as town I was going to put him in my leaning scum pile because I feel rayn has more experience and better accuracy than me at reading slam.

Also I'm still reading you guys filters Finished yours and reading LSB now.

^ Poofter sheeping the player that doesn't pressure him to death even though given the possibility.

Note: Could be rayn trying to help his scumbuddy with the "Look, you might be fellow town, do you see why this is scummy?"-act. Although at the moment I find gumshoe much more likely to be scum (haven't heard enough from Steveling yet), this possibility shouldn't be forgotten.

Note: gumshoe's case on rayn: I'm having a hard time seeing rayn go that far just to direct one mislynch this early on the game, the general tone of his posts doesn't seem very scummy to me either, so I don't agree with the case.
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
April 05 2014 20:55 GMT
#2336
##Vote: Coagulation
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
April 07 2014 19:00 GMT
#2852
Online till deadline from now. I figure I owe the other players at least that much.

There are several reasons for why I haven't been actively playing, but they're not of importance. I'll post my thoughts on today's lynch and the remaining cells in a moment. It will be brief.
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
April 07 2014 19:44 GMT
#2872
Alright. I really don't see a scum prplhz taking the risk and forcing a lynch between me and him only. Surely, I've been extremely inactive, but if I haven't read the thread wrong there has been opinions back and forth. Especially combined with the straight-up admittance that he'd not be around for the lynch since a few hours ago.

Getmoript has also kept discussion about our own cell to the very minimum. Certainly, there is much less to go by as I haven't been posting and there is a lot of reason to provide reads for other cells, but it conviniently aligns up. If he considers himself to be in no threat of being lynched, why not spend the remainder of the time to prepare the following mislynches if he's mafia?

The one thing which is making me doubt my scumread on geript is the late votes on Coagulation after mine. prplhz and Steveling both ended up voting Coag and tipping the lynch on him.

Whom I think is scum in the remaining cells:
Cell 1: Steveling (Late vote, lots of overreacting emotional play, seems too over-the-top to be genuine to me.)
Cell 2: Tehpoofter (Hasn't convinced me at all since the start, mderg's later play looks more towny to me. HF is town.)
Cell 3: Balla24 (Hard to say due to the little content, I was suspicious of LSB but I ended up misreading his town play and pressured him as scum wrongly for a long time in the last game we were in and due to my non-committal I'm afraid I might be wrong on that again. Slam makes no sense like always, but something about it is giving me a townie vibe this time.)

##vote: geript
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
April 07 2014 19:51 GMT
#2876
I'm voting geript because I believe him to be scum. This isn't a setup where there are any benefits for town to choose another town target to lynch. I believe that prplhz is town, and him being lynched instead of me doesn't get us anywhere.

So I am doing the thing that every townie should do in my situation, vote for the scumread and encourage others to do so as well.

Everyone, vote geript and lynch scum.
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
April 07 2014 19:55 GMT
#2879
On April 08 2014 04:54 gumshoe wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 08 2014 04:51 Cephiro wrote:
I'm voting geript because I believe him to be scum. This isn't a setup where there are any benefits for town to choose another town target to lynch. I believe that prplhz is town, and him being lynched instead of me doesn't get us anywhere.

So I am doing the thing that every townie should do in my situation, vote for the scumread and encourage others to do so as well.

Everyone, vote geript and lynch scum.


You know you are town correct?


Obviously. I wouldn't argue for this otherwise. -_-
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
April 07 2014 20:00 GMT
#2885
On April 08 2014 04:56 getmoript wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 06 2014 08:48 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Vote count:

Coagulation (7): LSB, Palmar, Tehpoofter, [UoN]Sentinel, gumshoe, prplhz, mderg, gumshoe, Steveling, Alakaslam, Cephiro, prplhz, Steveling
[UoN]Sentinel (6): Coagulation, getmoript, Coagulation, Holyflare, Palmar, prplhz, Steveling, LSB, [UoN]Sentinel
Palmar (0): getmoript, Coagulation, gumshoe, gumshoe

Not voting (1): Balla24

Coagulation is set to be lynched.

Also. Don't forget the vote counts and vote analysis. I'm pretty sure there were at least 3 scum on Coag and that Sent was scum.


Do you really think sentinel would risk selfvoting as mafia that close to deadline? I personally agree with the analysis provided on the things which happened after the flip, and that the scum was in fact quite likely Palmar. Knowing I'm town, I have even more reason to believe that as he conviniently suggested that I should be lynched next. Nothing easier than saying lynch the lurker is there?
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
April 07 2014 20:05 GMT
#2891
On April 08 2014 04:56 getmoript wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 08 2014 04:55 Cephiro wrote:
On April 08 2014 04:54 gumshoe wrote:
On April 08 2014 04:51 Cephiro wrote:
I'm voting geript because I believe him to be scum. This isn't a setup where there are any benefits for town to choose another town target to lynch. I believe that prplhz is town, and him being lynched instead of me doesn't get us anywhere.

So I am doing the thing that every townie should do in my situation, vote for the scumread and encourage others to do so as well.

Everyone, vote geript and lynch scum.


You know you are town correct?


Obviously. I wouldn't argue for this otherwise. -_-

Why do you think I'm scum?


As explained in my earlier posts, it's partly since prplhz's actions make me believe that he's town, and your actions being what would be very convinient for scum in the current situation. It's like you don't really even care that much whether it's me or prplhz that is lynched, but you're certainly talking a ton about other cells and enforcing your opinion about those. The extent of it seems just too much to me. Not to mention the flaw in your play you pointed out yourself, flip-flopping. Like you just recently had LSB as your scumread in cell 4, now it's on slam again?
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
April 07 2014 20:11 GMT
#2894
No, I don't. Why else would I suggest to lynch Steveling in my post? I think his reaction to the whole rayn incident was way over the top.
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
April 07 2014 20:14 GMT
#2897
Also I'm not looking to get excused, things happened and that's just how life goes sometimes. But it's why I'm here to do what I can while I still have the chance.

Why are you treating geript like it's a lynch that will never happen? As far as I've experienced, those are the very lynches that end up going wrong when people are certain that someone can't be lynched. To me it looks like there's more than enough people around.

I'm not going to give up on my read that easily. Lynch geript.
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
April 07 2014 20:28 GMT
#2908
On April 08 2014 05:15 Holyflare wrote:
cephiro has information on palmar being scum and information after palmars lynch that he shouldn't have because he hasn't been here and if he was he could have posted about it

lynch cephiro with fire


Just wow. Just because I haven't been posting and completely devoting myself to the game doesn't mean I don't have a general understanding of what has happened. It'd be absolutely retarded if I came here trying to convince you to lynch geript with having not read the thread at all, would it not?

The information is there, posted for everyone whom reads the thread to see it. Why should I not have it? That's a horrible accusation.
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
April 07 2014 20:49 GMT
#2927
We really need to lynch geript, everyone. He's not even trying right now since he's under no pressure from anyone but me. Get some votes on him and force him to talk.

It needs to happen. If he actually cared about this lynch and was so sure about me being scum, why isn't he here trying to get me lynched this very moment?
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
April 07 2014 20:57 GMT
#2935
On April 08 2014 05:52 gumshoe wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 08 2014 05:49 Cephiro wrote:
We really need to lynch geript, everyone. He's not even trying right now since he's under no pressure from anyone but me. Get some votes on him and force him to talk.

It needs to happen. If he actually cared about this lynch and was so sure about me being scum, why isn't he here trying to get me lynched this very moment?


Why is prlz not here right now arguing your lynch? We are not lynching Geript. Period.


+ Show Spoiler +
On April 08 2014 02:02 prplhz wrote:
I'm out of this game, I just cannot read another gumshoe post.

I don't think gumshoe is scum because it's impossible to fake this kind of dumb. I still think raynpelikonoshi was town. I think Steveling is scum. I think it is weird that Palmar changed his read on him in his last-reads-post without saying it in the thread. I also think it's weird that Steveling liked gumshoe's associative reads post on me so much, when Steveling didn't seem to agree with the scum reads in the post, especially Balla24 and mderg. If Holyflare doesn't get scum lynched today he's probably scum. Saying that I'm so town it hurts and then afking when he has the ability to get me off the hook is

As for Balla24 inactivity:

Show nested quote +
On April 04 2014 06:28 Balla24 wrote:
Ill be away monday to tuesday so you should put me 2nd otherwise I will barely be around during my cells lynch.


Show nested quote +
On April 04 2014 06:58 Balla24 wrote:
On April 04 2014 06:56 raynpelikonoshi wrote:
On April 04 2014 06:35 Steveling wrote:
Alright sentinel, can't argue now, I'm off.

Ryankoshi weren't you saying our group would be first?
Do I get 3 more days to play in this logic forsaken game if you put us up as 2nd?

That's the reason we go second.

Again. I have an interview during slot 3 so unless you are confident I dont need to be there much do not put cell 4 3rd.


Not gonna check this thread any more.

Because of you it seems. Geript on the other hand has not said that'd he'd be away or anything of the sort. I just don't see scum prplhz leaving it into the air like that, blatantly saying he won't be around anymore and not post anymore, when he said he'd make the lynch between me and himself.

Or are you saying that if he's scum instead of geript, he'd actually leave the job for his scumbuddies to ensure a mislynch on me? -> Prp & holy & ? & ? in this case?

It just seems too unlikely to me.

On April 08 2014 05:51 LSB wrote:
Geript isn't scum, and there is no way we are moving this wagon all the way over there

Either vote for Prphlz or explain why you are 100% confident.


How about you vote for geript or explain why you are 100% confident. I doubt you have reason to be 100% confident unless you're scum. I certainly am not, I am merely acting towards what I believe to be correct.
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
April 07 2014 21:05 GMT
#2945
On April 08 2014 06:00 Holyflare wrote:
dude is convinced i'm town when nobody else is when he has no information other than reading!


Yes, I think you're town. Just acting like a retard one right now, although that may have to do with OMGUS.

In my opinion, you've been engaging others actively and haven't let others decide things for you, but always brought your own opinion forth. That is a townie trait to me. Even at the moment (although for retarded reasons), you are pushing for my lynch, just as I am pushing for geript's lynch.
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
April 07 2014 21:11 GMT
#2960
On April 08 2014 06:03 gumshoe wrote:
Also Holy hasnt cared about this game until now and we both know his accusation against you was scummy as shit. Why would he step in like this if Geript is his buddy? He could just let me lynch prplz and then laugh as town rips me apart. Holy has also offered shit reasons for why Prplz is town, yet defended him vehemently. Sorry bud, but it just makes all the sense no?


This doesn't mean geript couldn't be scum where Holy is town, which is what I believe to be the case.

On April 08 2014 06:03 gumshoe wrote:
Palmar is scum, palmar gives us rayns alignment ( palmer pushed for a lynch im my cell, which means rayn was scum and to win our cell scum would need me and steve to vote each other) rayns alignment gives us Geripts ( Wanted him dead 100 percent) they both said that no matter what, we should not lynch Prplz. At the time of them saying these things they pretty much ran the game, there was no reason for them to assume we would not listen to them. Therefore they did not bus. Why would scum lie about lies when they have no reason to suspect town thinks they're lies?

Basically if Rayn and Palmer are scum (which they are) Prplz is scum.


This reasoning does make some sense to me though, and I do currently believe you are town. I'll have to go back and read the main points of the conflict and re-evaluate the situation.
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
April 07 2014 21:58 GMT
#3008
I did not go afk. This just proves my point, thinking that the prp wagon was a bad one.
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
April 07 2014 22:23 GMT
#3037
Gg. Disappointing that it ended like this (to a modkill), and I understand my absence was not a pleasure to play with, which is why I'd like to apologize to the other players for not being as active as I intended do. I will ensure I've got time to play with people that post tens of pages a day next time, or stick to voice mafia for now. ^^
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
April 07 2014 22:31 GMT
#3043
On April 08 2014 07:25 getmoript wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 08 2014 07:23 Cephiro wrote:
Gg. Disappointing that it ended like this (to a modkill), and I understand my absence was not a pleasure to play with, which is why I'd like to apologize to the other players for not being as active as I intended do. I will ensure I've got time to play with people that post tens of pages a day next time, or stick to voice mafia for now. ^^

BTW if you pull this shit any any game ever again I will policy lynch you for doing it. Like it's completely unfair to everyone.


I know it makes the game more unenjoyable, but hardly unfair as activeness is not alignment indicative, especially not when it comes to me. Thus I apologized. If you feel like policy lynching will get you anywhere, then by all means do so.
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