EPTNewbie Mini Mafia LIV - Page 3
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
oh and robik survived n1 gg, clear mafia Alright, looking at nightkills, Eden is the super obvious choice, doesn't change much for my analysis. In fact, it just cuts out the comments I was going to make about Eden. Day 1 is characterized by what I feel are three MAJOR events. 1) The OK lurker policy, Robik's wtf, and the subsequent push onto Cavalinho for following Robik on it 2) My own fail post and the subsequent shitstorm. 3) The Cavalinho parity claim. I think the first two situations have been beaten to death, though I'll answer any remaining questions people have about the second point. The brunt of my analysis will be on Cavalinho put out the parity cop claim just to spite fking Eden, and I can understand it. More than understand it, I did the same thing because it was fking tiresome. Let's look how people fell on that. Pixalated wasn't online at the time because Singapore. Eden kept pushing, and was tunneling on Cavalinho and Robik being scum together (this is a clusterfuck I want to return to later when I have more time to analyze the slapfight more throoughly). Robik posted a spirited defense of Cavalinho, saying we shouldn't lynch the parity cop claim. Also yelling at Eden. I still don't understand how the parity cop claim can just sort itself out before Day 3, and even then it doesn't necessarily become useful. Valenius states that: On March 28 2014 06:07 Valenius wrote: In light of this.. My vote isn't moving. I don't believe LT is mafia, so i'm not going to move my vote on to him. Which is actually a pretty bold statement since no-one else had said anything decisive, and I think it leans town. I do want an explanation as to why you didn't move it onto Cavalinho, however, as while I understand why you didn't move it onto me, but not Cav. You just over half-an hour stated that: On March 28 2014 05:28 Valenius wrote: I really want to keep my vote on sqrt, but it doesn't look like it's going down that way. Out of Cav/LT, i'd be voting for Cav. Then, RolandJarvis is online and posts: Posting to say I'm refreshing from work and I'm aware of current events. He doesn't explicitly take a side here (instead keeps on voting Cavalinho). And what were your thoughts about the whole affair? You didn't post any thoughts about it despite being online at the time. OK then posts that he disagrees with Robik's reasoning that "the parity cop claim will sort itself out". He doesn't take further action outside of this, as of yet. Likely thinking over his course of action. RJ then posts this: On March 28 2014 06:34 RolandJarvis wrote: I am nervous about who won't be around and the possibility of no accountability vote switches in the name of not lynching the claim. I believe everyone in the game has by this time been accounted for outside of myself (I noted previously that my phone was dead), and Pixalated (who stated he was sleeping and wasn't around for the lynch). It seems to imply that you still wanted to see Cavalinho lynched, as you were worried about vote switches off of him? Then we get On March 28 2014 06:37 sqrtofneg1 wrote: The question is, do we believe the cop claim or not? It's doubtful, but possible. Which is fking useless. No stand, no reason to post it outside to basically signal hes online and aware of what's happening, and just makes town more confused and uncertain. He doesn't change his vote on Cavalinho. Scummy or useless town contribution. Valenius responds to it and says: On March 28 2014 06:38 Valenius wrote: Shit, i wish someone had wondered this earlier. Which raises the question as to why you don't post anything afterwards regarding the Cavalinho lynch (either changing your play, taking a firm stand on it before Day 1 ended, or commenting on later actions), as you were clearly online at the time. I then make a post that states I have a short amount of time to check and reply to the mafia thread + Show Spoiler [RL reason] + the kids I was tutoring got disciplinary action so I had half an hour to fuck around OK then posts his vote switch from Valenius to Cavalinho, specifically citing RJ's concern that people would vote-switch off of Cavalinho because of the claim, and stating he doesn't think it can resolve itself. At this point I finally finish skimming the thread, have no fking clue what to say about the claim, and thought to myself: I might as well consolidate because I basically think there's no fking way this will end well because it's a fking parity cop, and we could be LYLO if we try to accommodate it. I DISAGREE THAT THIS IS A TOWN PLAY. Neutral play at best in my own review of the action, since it was posted after OK posted his justification (I posted I was online probably like 15s before he posted his justification and voteswitch). I'll say this: I disagree with OK's assessment of LT late vote on Cava looking good because why would mafia want to draw attention to themselves. I disagree because if LT is mafia, and he's one of the other wagons, he has to make sure that he's not lynched based off of a late vote-switch based off of the claim. Thus it makes sense for him to make sure that the lead wagon is as far ahead as possible. I agree with this, though at the time there were 4 votes on Cavalinho, so it would take 2 vote switches, as opposed to 1, to see myself lynched. I actually like the skepticism here. I don't see how it can be anything but a neutral at best move, especially as I did telegraph that I was most likely not going to be able to post again before the deadline. tl;dr??? I feel really scummy about sqrt's post for obvious reasons. It doesn't discuss "what should we do", it just incites doubt about "is he REALLY a cop?" (like we're going to fking know until he flips). He doesn't change his vote or anything, so I'm really not sure what to make of it. Valenius' posts confuse me here and I'm not sure how to interpret his play; his first post seems towny to me, but the second, combined with a lack of followup, confuses this read: especially as he said he didn't mind voting Cavalinho over myself. RJ voiced a valid concern about possible vote-switching off of Cavalinho (but apparently did not foresee the vote-switching ON to Cavalinho), and seemed to be for the continued lynching of Cavalinho claim or no claim. I agree with it, but I can't read much else from him here. OK does voteswitch onto Cavalinho first (followed by myself like 5 minutes later). I am uneasy about Robik's play, and will be posting another analysis of it later today. This was already more work than I intended. I have more general reads and proposals coming in the next wall-o-text | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
General analysis after reading what has been posted while I was typing: First (this goes for Eden and OK): Clarification: Valenius was not the first one to push onto sqrt, nor the first person to vote on him. *ehm* On the Valenius post: sqrt, how do you get a "neutral" read off of it? It's filled decent, non-rehashed analysis (though I think he could explain his reasoning on Pixalated: Valenius what is your read of him, and why do you think that). You don't like it because he calls you scum, yeah, but tell me: why shouldn't we view you as scummy given your current contributions? Your reads post had two pieces of original analysis: 1) is idle speculation of my relationship with Valenius, and to that I say: don't ask, don't tell  . Ok, I kid, but it was based off something which can readily be falsified with a single glance at his filter at the time. Like, it's SUPER obvious, and really, why would I as scum try to link myself to my scum partner so early (and vice versa), and with something so easily disputed? Neither does this say that he's town if I'm scum (when I "downgraded" him and gave the actual read, Eden was on the Tolkien/Cavalinho 4eva pairing at the time, so I would have no incentive to change anything about Valenius), just that this is a useless line of inquiry.2) idle speculation that Pixelated is blue (don't speculate about other people being blue. I talked about blues in my admittedly disastrous Day 1, but that's a nono and I was only making a soft vet claim, as opposed to calling someone out explicitly as blue (and even that's scummy). DON'T DO THAT AS TOWN. aka what Eden apparently only just noticed Night 2. dem scum team reads yo THAT BEING SAID. I'm not sure what it is, but I like his posting. OK's accusation got me to make a doubletake on my initial very towny feel from his first major contribution (it is possible it was also motivated by his defense of me, but Robik agreed with me here so it probably wasn't just that), but I'm tentatively feeling he's town. His stand in the Cavalinho parity cop claim makes sense, and he did it before anyone not directly involved in the clusterfk (mainly Eden, Robik, and Cav himself) did. His quoting of sqrt's absolutely fking useless post tho (and not following up) is getting at me and keeping me from pegging him as solid town. I'm solidly pegging OK as town. I don't think there's much to say here. @ sqrt: Can you please give us an actual reason why we shouldn't lynch you today? I'm fine that you lived through Day 1 but your Day 1 was pisspoor and scummy. Like, if you're town, please defend yourself and don't be another fking Beneather. If you're scum and are just being another N1K0 tho, pls continue. And finally: @ Dead-den, I noted previously I had time constraints which prevent me from posting comprehensively until near the deadline, and I apparently fked that up. MB At this point, my other possible scumreads outside of sqrt (who I don't want everyone to SOLELY focus on today no matter how hard Val and I pushed him Day 1) are: Pixalated RolandJarvis Robik (I really need to analyze why I'm uncomfortable with him with my gut as a gut reaction [don't think he's scum, but uncomfortable enough to be concerned], but no time atm, hopefully I can get through with that before we're quarterway through the day, but at the latest halfway through) I'm fairly confident that OK is town, as is Valenius. Which reminds me, Robik you posted that you thought that OK was scummy up until later in the day (and in fact that the two mafia were in with me, Cavalinho, and, OK), but also noted in that post that OK started appearing less scummy. Why? Also, I'm waiting on your reads; I haven't seen any from you at all this game, which is entirely different from your Day 1 play in LII. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On March 29 2014 10:25 OnceKing wrote: dude LT what are you typing you just wavered between me being solid town and not being solid town like three times Err what. I'm fairly certain that wasn't in the posts lol, and if it was I apologize. I THINK You mean when I was talking about your accusation about Valenius (that section isn't clear), but I meant I did a doubletake of Valenius and think he's tentatively town because of his Cavalinho play. That wasn't referring to you. I need to proofread next time, but whatever I wrote, I mean you are solid town. And to clarify super scum: sqrt scummy: Pixalated RJ uncomfortable with (gut feeling): Robik tentative town: Valenis OK: solid town Just to clear up confusion | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
THAT BEING SAID. I'm not sure what it is, but I like his posting. OK's accusation got me to make a doubletake on my initial very towny feel from his first major contribution (it is possible it was also motivated by his defense of me, but Robik agreed with me here so it probably wasn't just that), but I'm tentatively feeling he's town. His stand in the Cavalinho parity cop claim makes sense, and he did it before anyone not directly involved in the clusterfk (mainly Eden, Robik, and Cav himself) did. His quoting of sqrt's absolutely fking useless post tho (and not following up) is getting at me and keeping me from pegging him as solid town. Is this section what you mean? Because it all refers to Valenius. The only part that refers to you is your Val wagon. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
also yes, prepare to face the mighty millhouse pronounstorm. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
I understand that currently you are likely asleep Pixalated, but you had a whole 48 hours where you didn't post a thing. Same with RJ. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
sqrt isn't scum. Or at the very least, I see no reason to lynch him Day 2 when he's been posting...unlike three other people I can mention *COUGHCOUGHCOUGH*. #Vote RolandJarvis Been reassessing Robik and I still don't know why I feel uncomfortable about him. :\ | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
Scuse me but this takes some explanation. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On March 31 2014 04:33 RolandJarvis wrote: I'm pretty disappointed with the activity level, it took no time to catch up. Well duh. That's hat happens when you only have 4/7 posting. What do you guys think of this shit. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On March 31 2014 04:35 RolandJarvis wrote: and it's still 3 hours til lynch which seems like plenty of time. The wagon is obviously quite independent of my return. I'm either playing or I'm not. Then you'd be wrong. You had 48 hours to post something telling us you're alive AFYER THE NIGHTKILL and 70 hours after the lynch. If you are town fk you. 3 hours means shit and you know it. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
#Unvote RolandJarvis #vote Pixalated I'm willing to excuse this as a misunderstanding. That being said, POST REGULARLY AND FREQUENTLY. Posting a giant block 2 hours before the lynch does nothing, because you don't contribute anything to the scumhunting or set up ANY WAGONS in the 70 hours prior. I'm still not happy with you at all, but you're posting something at least. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On March 31 2014 04:50 RolandJarvis wrote: Not voting this late in the day is not a good look. Combine that with eden being suspicious of him and I'm going to give Pixalated a second look. pls | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
Tumbleweeds for another 70. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On March 31 2014 05:13 Valenius wrote: Anyway, i'll try to stop snide posting. LT, if you take anger out of the equation (and the wtf posts about activity he's had), would you consider switching to pix? I already have. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On March 31 2014 05:17 OnceKing wrote: Valenius, LT - who are your other mafia suspects? Still uncomfortable about Robik and still don't like sqrt and RJ but this Day 2 has been a disaster postingwise so I'm trying to get activity up going forward. This flip should also tell us something. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
Also correct lynch anyways. Another beneather unfortunately but no posts. | ||
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