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On February 06 2014 03:04 Promethelax wrote:
Every day there will be at least one townie death. If we are sure that someone is scum. Artanis for instance. It is better to lynch a borderline player, one who many people suspect, and have them shoot Artanis. That way we ensure that we eliminate two suspects from the suspect pool and, hopefully, get a red flip to inform our future choices.
I don't understand why you are repeating yourself in hopes of a different response by me.
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I think it is cause it is an invite only game. Usually they turn out horrible with a few exceptions
On February 06 2014 03:36 Promethelax wrote:
So Ceph/LSB if you would do me the kindness of looking into the DP/rayn dichotomy I would be very pleased. I happen to agree with Ceph that no more than one of them can be scum and I have obviously drawn my own conclusions on that. You should be able to post reads on those two players at least to some degree.
Uhh... I thought I explained why expressing people in an dichotomy and trying to make them at odds with each other is incredibly anti-town. The fact that you are encouraging people to do this add more points to my scumdar
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Marv is town so I don't wana kill him. I'd rather lynch Rayn than have Marv shoot Rayn.
Though preferably I'd want to lynch WoS
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I switched cause I was looking at his previous games?
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On February 07 2014 06:28 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On February 07 2014 06:14 marvellosity wrote:
Like I said, you don't have to look in depth at my play.
Why don't you do that if that's what you need to do?
P.S. LSB is town, just like Prome was. the only information we have is that artanis is scum, LSB's stance on artanis is ridiculously back and forth and it doesn't make sense
Since when do flips tell you anything about people alignments?
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On February 07 2014 06:38 marvellosity wrote:
meh. I'm going to come up with a plan of action that people who think I'm mafia and town alike will go along with. Shall do so later.
Dunno, it seems pretty clear to me that you are town.
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On February 07 2014 06:41 Holyflare wrote:
kind of really want to shoot wave right now
All aboard the wagon!!
##Vote WaveofShadow
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On February 07 2014 06:43 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On February 07 2014 06:42 LSB wrote:On February 07 2014 06:41 Holyflare wrote:
kind of really want to shoot wave right now All aboard the wagon!!##Vote WaveofShadow If you're town, could you please stop playing like this?
My current idea is to reach a lylo situation with someone who I know is town and then I offer to get lynched or something, ez game. That's why I don't want you to get lynched and would rather go after other targets.
Unfortunately this whole "I'm gonna suicide thing" is pretty counterproductive.
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On February 07 2014 06:46 Holyflare wrote:
even if it's 2 unconfirmed town and 1 scum at the end it's still a 50% chance shot if you get lynched and by then it should be obvious
End game scenarios
I'm first going to assume that people won't withhold their shot. LSB omega plan 2 involves witholdment of shots to break the game and force a draw.
3 Players- Unconfirmed Townie, Confirmed Townie, Scum.
Unconfirmed Townie votes self and then shoots Scum. Town win
5 Players- 3 Unconfirmed Townies, Confirmed Townie, 1 Scum
Unconfirmed Townie votes self and shoots someone other than confirmed townie. This moves on to the 3 player lylo situation. Town win
5 Players- 2 Unconfirmed Townies, Confirmed Townie, 2 Scum
Just play mafia I guess, though an unconfirmed townie could gamble if they think they know scum in an effort to keep confirmed townie alive. If they suicide and shoot scum this moves onto the 3 player lylo situation
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On February 07 2014 06:51 marvellosity wrote:
if people are sure enough i am town to want to keep me around as sure town to lylo, they should be sure enough to go with my read and shoot rayn as well.
If we have more people who think you are confirmed town also I am willing to sacrifice myself to shoot rayn if that will keep you alive.
As long as we arrive near endgame with a confirmed town it should be and easy win.
Or who knows, after the game ends everyone is gonna be like "WTF Marv was mafia? How?"
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On February 07 2014 07:57 Cephiro wrote:
Yush Wave, just got that far in the thread. At the moment it would probably be Holy (pushing me for out-of-game reasons too, wut?), or LSB (lots of stuff that doesn't make enough sense).
Like what on earth are these "confirmed" townies he speaks of? All his possible endgame scenarios include one. That alone is scummy as hell, pointing out several possible endgame options yet leaving out the more likely ones. He also speaks of suiciding being counterproductive. In my opinion there is absolutely no reason why we shouldn't always aim to lynch a townie.
??? What are you talking about?
I covered all possible scenarios that could occur starting tomorrow. What other end game scenarios could occur?
Lynch = No flip. Shot person = Flip.
Scum will never shoot their own buddy in this setup. Thus if the scum is lynched, we won't be able to know and just see town dying and go into possible panic due to misreading the situation as the worst possible scenario.
Why is scum getting lynched a bad thing? If we lynch you and you shoot Marv, you flip yourself as mafia. If you shoot someone who is on the possible scum list, we get rid of two borderline players. Either way a scum dies and that is good for the town.
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I am deeply concerned about Cephiro trying to get a townie to offer themselves as a sacrifice to get me shot. I know that I am a townie, so this falls under my "worst case scenario of townie shooting townie" argument.
This is incredibly different from Marv/HF who are both asking people to lynch them so they can pull the trigger themselves. Unless they are bluffing (which applies more to HF than Marv) mafia should never offer themselves as a sacrifice.
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On February 07 2014 08:28 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On February 07 2014 08:21 LSB wrote:On February 07 2014 07:57 Cephiro wrote:
Yush Wave, just got that far in the thread. At the moment it would probably be Holy (pushing me for out-of-game reasons too, wut?), or LSB (lots of stuff that doesn't make enough sense).
Like what on earth are these "confirmed" townies he speaks of? All his possible endgame scenarios include one. That alone is scummy as hell, pointing out several possible endgame options yet leaving out the more likely ones. He also speaks of suiciding being counterproductive. In my opinion there is absolutely no reason why we shouldn't always aim to lynch a townie. ??? What are you talking about? I covered all possible scenarios that could occur starting tomorrow. What other end game scenarios could occur? There is no such thing as confirmed town in this game for an alive player. Just because you think marv is town doesn't mean everyone else agrees, nor that he actually is. I'm making the assumption you're not talking about yourself as a confirmed townie from the perspective you put it, especially as others would not be able to know that.
Lynch = No flip. Shot person = Flip.
Scum will never shoot their own buddy in this setup. Thus if the scum is lynched, we won't be able to know and just see town dying and go into possible panic due to misreading the situation as the worst possible scenario.
Why is scum getting lynched a bad thing? If we lynch you and you shoot Marv, you flip yourself as mafia. If you shoot someone who is on the possible scum list, we get rid of two borderline players. Either way a scum dies and that is good for the town. Because scum will never shoot scum. If you lynch scum that shoots a townie, you can't be sure if that player is actually scum, or if it's a townie taking revenge/trying to be a hero/whatever other possibilities there are. Let's go with the assumption that you lynch me and I shoot marv. I know I'm town. Let's assume marv is town also. Just because I shoot him, even if most players consider him to be town, does not make me scum. I can see why you're trying to implicate that, but you have to understand that is not necessarily the case as townies have been known to go rogue and make their own decisions at times. My point is, why would you leave it up to guessing when you can take the sure way out?
Unfortunately I am finding it harder and harder to believe you are thinking about the setup from a townie perspective.
Town objective- Kill three mafia
Mafia objective- Have a townie lynch another townie two times.
As a townie, all I care about is if a mafia is dead or not. Whether or not the mafia is flipped doesn't really matter to me. Artanis flipped red but really, who cares? He was probably the most obvious day 1 bus target you can get. Connections are not alignment indicative.
By lynching scummy players I have multiple chances to hit a scum in a cycle. I can either get them killed at the lynch, or if I am wrong, the player may be able to redeem himself by shooting a scum. If I lynch a scum, then we have accomplished what we need to do.
If I am 'sure' that someone is scum I should lynch him, because even if I am wrong, we still have a chance that a scum will die. If I lynched a townie and he hits my target and flips green, well I just killed two townies
As a mafia I try to orchestrate a situation in which we can have a townie lynch another townie.
And this is exactly what you are doing. You are trying to get a townie to offer themselves as a sacrifice to kill me (which I know is a townie)
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On February 07 2014 07:57 Cephiro wrote:
I'd like LSB to be shot right now. The lynched person is a little harder to decide as I'd prefer to be sure that player is town. But on the other hand I don't want my strongest townreads to get killed either. Rayn & DP I want to keep around for now, same with you. So it comes down to lynching marv or holy.
On February 07 2014 08:36 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On February 07 2014 08:25 LSB wrote:
I am deeply concerned about Cephiro trying to get a townie to offer themselves as a sacrifice to get me shot. I know that I am a townie, so this falls under my "worst case scenario of townie shooting townie" argument.
This is incredibly different from Marv/HF who are both asking people to lynch them so they can pull the trigger themselves. Unless they are bluffing (which applies more to HF than Marv) mafia should never offer themselves as a sacrifice. 1) I have merely pointed out my suspicions on you and referred to you as my preferred lynch target since I was asked of that specific question. 2) If you are scum, there is no reason for scum to shoot you. I am not in need of tempting another townie to get to shoot you, I am just fine doing it myself. I figure it would be best to talk cooperatively among town who they want to keep around for lategame to ensure the best possibilities of winning. As you might have noticed, I am in no rush to make decisions about who to lynch or who to shoot this cycle, neither was I during last cycle. This is also a reason why I'm sad that Prome was the one to take the shot, since I would have preferred him to stay alive later in the game, and had an more unsure read take the shot. @Wave: It's suboptimal play. Why guess if we can have facts? Certainly it might not even become a deciding factor of any sorts, but why take the risk? Why not go for the guaranteed information?
In the first post you say I am scum and you are willing to trade a townie (that is not yourself) for me.
In the second post you say you are unsure whether or not I am scum and you are willing to trade yourself for me.
If you combine these two post together we have someone who wants to trade a townie for a player that he has 'suspicions on' and not entirely sure
##unvote
##Vote Cephiro
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Why do people repeat themselves and hope for a different response?
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Fuuukkk. I just realized that since marv isn't dead Rayn is probably mafia.
I'll do your dirty work for you marv
##unvote
##Vote LSB
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On February 07 2014 09:19 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On February 07 2014 09:19 LSB wrote:
Fuuukkk. I just realized that since marv isn't dead Rayn is probably mafia.
I'll do your dirty work for you marv
##unvote
##Vote LSB Explain? O.o
If I were mafia and both you and rayn were town, I would be like support your plan and would have lynched you by now so you can shoot rayn. Boom, two townies dead. EZ Day 2.
Since you aren't lynched yet, I can only assume that mafia don't want to see you go
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On February 07 2014 09:24 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On February 07 2014 09:24 LSB wrote:On February 07 2014 09:19 marvellosity wrote:On February 07 2014 09:19 LSB wrote:
Fuuukkk. I just realized that since marv isn't dead Rayn is probably mafia.
I'll do your dirty work for you marv
##unvote
##Vote LSB Explain? O.o If I were mafia and both you and rayn were town, I would be like support your plan and would have lynched you by now so you can shoot rayn. Boom, two townies dead. EZ Day 2. Since you aren't lynched yet, I can only assume that mafia don't want to see you go you know, in a funny way, this does in fact make sense.
Lynch me instead, if Rayn flips red that basically confirms Marv as town, follow the endgame scenario detailed below
On February 07 2014 06:56 LSB wrote:
3 Players- Unconfirmed Townie, Confirmed Townie, Scum.
Unconfirmed Townie votes self and then shoots Scum. Town win
5 Players- 3 Unconfirmed Townies, Confirmed Townie, 1 Scum
Unconfirmed Townie votes self and shoots someone other than confirmed townie. This moves on to the 3 player lylo situation. Town win
GGWP Town victory
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What do I have to do to get people to lynch me? Claim mafia? Post pretty pictures of animals?
Marv you want Rayn dead right? I will shoot him. So lynch me
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EPT
