Newbie Mini Mafia LII - Page 3
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Valenius
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Valenius
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Valenius
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Valenius
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##vote Beneather | ||
Valenius
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Also, bed for me. Night guys. | ||
Valenius
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Valenius
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Valenius
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(If any of you dare try to pull me up for not only speaking about this game..) | ||
Valenius
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On February 22 2014 12:21 theDragoon wrote: Could OnceKing have used his power on himself? I really think he should have given his play on day 2. No idea. Mods, can doctor use the save on himself? | ||
Valenius
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Valenius
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On February 22 2014 13:20 Amiko wrote: Since I feel the most-town people aren't very contentious, maybe theDragoon and I should try to make a case on each other in case Beneather flips town? Go ahead. I've spent the last two hours looking through filters to try and find scum reads.. coming up with very little. Probably putting too much time into this game considering how it's gone~ | ||
Valenius
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Valenius
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Valenius
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Valenius
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On February 25 2014 06:14 Amiko wrote: Also honestly reading through someone’s posts again I noticed a lot of things I didn’t the first time through or when I re-read without purpose. For example, re-reading I noticed this one- Why would town ask what the result is they flip red? We should have hammered n1k0 on that I think. To be fair; he was dead and buried by that point anyway, no point wasting time on making a stronger case when he was providing no (reasonable) defence. Though your overarching point on re-reading posts is valid. | ||
Valenius
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Valenius
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Dragoon; as much as it sucks to be played, don't let that influence your decision. Make it based on true reads, not based on how you'd feel after the game. I'd be pissed at you (or amiko) if you made your choice based on that. | ||
Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
On February 24 2014 15:19 Amiko wrote: Two quick points 1) There’s gotta be one mafia left. 2) All the town deaths but OnceKing have been vanilla town, so we probably still have a cop. Last night when I read this, I viewed it as a soft claim. If it was (you've since kinda proved it isn't), I could understand the post. It isn't, so it stands out as weird logic to me. There were 6 possible blue roles, of which we've lost one (OnceKing, Doctor). It makes no sense to think that its probable that one of the two remaining town players got picked as cop. I could understand if you'd have said "There's a chance", but probable? No. Could just be weird logic, not necessarily calling it a scummy play.. just wrong. As for your first point, lol. Cases I would encourage people to try to hold reads close to the chest tonight – if we go into day 4, it’ll be 1 mafia vs 2 town, so we want to avoid letting mafia manipulate votes. During night I would still encourage people to try to make cases and challenge play. My general goal for tonight will be to try to draw out a lot of scummy things on people so we can talk about them tomorrow. If I draw a case on everyone, then who knows where my vote will end up Yeah, that's a reasonable play. However, again it does strike me as a bit scummy that you said you'd only put a case on everyone so your vote is unknown, then later on (bottom of post) say you'll only draw up the other cases if you have time. I can understand time constraints (Timezone+Work where I cant post), but following your logic you shouldn't have put any cases up unless you were certain of time, or you had them all ready to go. Your cases, despite trying to hide reads will still give some indication on how you're feeling towards people. theDragoon Day 1: Voting for a blue? theDragoon’s day one play appears a little unusual, but is largely explainable if you consider him to be mafia. During this part of the analysis, keep in mind that theDragoon’s vote day one was on Lord Tolkien. In this post he discusses Tolkien as a potential vote (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=8#156). There’s a few weird things about this post, but this stands out as scummy when discussing Lord Tolkien Here, theDragoon is suggesting that we lynch someone who is softclaiming a blue role. If Tolkien was lynched d1 and flipped as a blue role, how would that information have helped town? This is such a weird suggestion it really throws me (and I feel bad for not criticizing it before). Yep, pretty much agree. I can understand his earlier reasoning, about it being lynch-protection, but the last line.. yeah: It's a bad play. In case you thought theDragoon might just be scumhunting with a weird vote proposal, it’s clear he is serious about Tolkien here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821257), where he casts his vote. He ultimately sets his vote on Lord Tolkien on the grounds that Tolkien references the mafia QT. I would classify the basis for his vote on Tolkien as scummy at worst, and very weak at best. Moving into day 2 Short Memory / Following the Scum? Day 2 theDragoon seems to forget his reads day 1. Although Tolkien was his top scum read, he starts day 2 by following the path Lord Tolkien sets before him here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=15#297) and follows them through the day. I'd disagree with your read of this post, but I still viw it as kinda scummy. To me, it seems to be him assessing the options. However, to base it off Beneather's post (you all know my thoughts on his posts) is stupid. His comment that n1k0 makes a decent argument for voting Cav is pretty flawed in my opinion. That post by n1k0 was one of the one's I picked on during my voting post on him. I don't think playing defensively means you're scum (see Cav/Me Day 1), it's just your mindset. Commenting on what good can come out of your own lynch (with regards to tolkien), I firmly disagree with, as i've stated several times to Tolkien. Lastly, The read on that I'd be paired with Beneather, based on his vote on me. His vote was pretty much nonsensical, considering it was based on him saying i've not contributed.. despite him not actually having any sort of post that adds any value whatsoever. Beneather never had a solid case on me day 1, that's why I didn't respond. The Choice Not Taken Something to note as we look to day 2 is theDragoon’s reads on n1k0. Basically, theDragoon continues to mention n1k0 as a potential scumread, someone who could be voted for another day. theDragoon basically argues that he now wants to lynch Valenius – if Valenius is green, then we should vote n1k0 later. However, for some reason he resists the opposite order, which would likely accomplish the same result, because of pride (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20848746). This explanation strikes me as weird – for one, it’s not using any logic/knowledge/reads, so it’s a weird justification to begin with. Second, it seems to me that the pride-saving move is to bandwagon– then if you are wrong, you are wrong with everyone else. It's an odd one for me. I gave theDragoon an exceptionally easy switch of vote on to n1k0, yet he didn't take it. I provided a situation in which him switching his vote would draw almost no suspicion. Instead, he kept it on me. At that point, n1k0 was a sure lynch. I honestly can't tell right now if this is an incredibly scummy desperation play, or whether it's incredibly townie play. The desperation play would explain itself, but the incredibly townie play is not taking the easy switch and staying with your read. Really, it's a circular logic.. is he bluffing, is he not bluffing? I'm not going to focus on that much more for now, it'll annoy me too much. A Decent Argument theDragoon’s reads on n1k0 also seem unusual. In this post, theDragoon says that n1k0 made a decent argument for n1k0’s vote on Cavalinho. (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=15#297). Go to this post and search for anything prior to it mentioning n1k0. You will find theDragoon’s post suggesting he sees contradictions in n1k0’s posts (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821516). You will find the posts I mentioned earlier where theDragoon says he reads n1k0 as slight scum. You’ll only find one argument from n1k0 for his vote on Cavalinho here. (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=12#234) But, theDragoon specifically calls this post out as giving him a scum vibe (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821257) . What this means is, theDragoon justifies not voting n1k0 based on townreading n1k0’s argument... after he previously calls the argument scummy . Yup, pretty much the conclusion i drew above. OnceKing I previously questioned why OnceKing wasn’t killed night 1 when he established himself as a strong town leader. I remember thinking that maybe mafia was trying to avoid hitting the targert of a medic save. But, note that here, OnceKing names theDragoon as a “definitely town” (ok to be fair he names me too) – this may explain why mafia did not target him for the n1 kill. Another possibility is that mafia (somehow?) didn’t notice OnceKing’s town presence day 1. At first this might sound silly because to me, OnceKing was firmly establishing himself as a town leader day 1. But, note this post: This suggests that theDragoon only noticed OnceKing's town play on day 2. We know he noticed after his scumpartner n1k0 was lynched, and OnceKing is killed that night. If you look through his filter, you'll also see theDragoon doesn’t discuss OnceKing’s towniness as much as most other players. Past night 1, OnceKing's towniness was never really in question. it was reasonably obvious based on his posting that he was town. Based on his day 1, I'd say Once was going to be the target of a medic save if we had one (that wasn't himself). That'd explain the lack of kill attempt on him, and instead the kill on Robik (Sort of middle of the road between town/mafia based on the average consensus) NEXT POST ~ THAT ONLY TOOK 45 MINS, oh god, this is my whole evening isn't it. Tolkien Your post before the lynch (~7 hours before) was so obviously bait of some sort. Dude. On February 25 2014 11:57 theDragoon wrote: Some quick thoughts on the remaining players, just in case I don't survive the night. These are just quick notes based off reading through each person's filter. Amiko I don't like how he brings up people who could have saved Cav because that early in the game nobody is 100% certain of their reads to go out of their way to save someone, most people would rather vote on who they think is scum. I think this is just him trying implicate others. I agree with this, it's similar to my reasoning for not switching from Robik. My scumread was stronger than my townread, and swapping to any of the others was pure guesswork. He bandwagon'd on the vote on n1k0 in day 2 without really presenting anything against him. Also want to note his vote was late, he could have waited to see if there was a chance others would jump ship and vote on someone else. When he saw that there's no hope he bus'd n1k0 to gain town cred. Looking back, "I still feel it’s very tough to pick between n1k0, Beneather, and Valenius. I have been hoping that one of the three would put up something that swayed me one way or another but it hasn’t happened." was posted by Amiko well after both OnceKing and I had made our cases on n1k0. Once's argument seemed to be enough to sway everyone else on to n1k0, so this hesitation is kind of scummy to me. Amiko wanted to encourage talk and discussion during night so that he can have a more informed decision on who to kill. Can be scummy/townie, depending on how you look at it. I don't personally think night discussions are bad. N1k0 said Amiko is likely to be godfather and warned any possible cop not to check on Amiko, then calls Amiko town. Yeah.. lol. This was either a major slip by n1k0 (a possibility given his overall play), or just trying to be townie. I'm leaning towards the former. Valenius Unlikely to be mafia after n1k0's flip but just in case. Him, n1k0 and Beneather were under fire start of day 2, we know Beneather is town and n1k0 is scum. If Valenius is scum, the best way for mafia to ensure one of them can be cleared is to bus the other. He agrees to bus n1k0, starts vote on him to gain massive town cred. N1k0 offers absolutely no defense since they agreed to this. I'm suprised the "Valenius bussed his teammate" argument hasn't really been brought up before now. Everyone was saying n1k0's red flip means im green. Obviously i'm fine with that, it means I have to spend less time defending myself and can have more time to review previous posts for reads. However, given my day 1 play.. which.. let's be honest wasn't particularly great (See: Misread on robik).. I would have had no where near enough confidence to try and take on the remaining days alone. If I were mafia, I'd not bus my teammate 18-hours into a 48-hour cycle, especially when only minor pressure had been brought on him at that point. The easy play there is to go for Beneather, and when he turns up green blame it on lack of solid reads due to his inactivity. That's a play i'd take all the time. (Note: My later read on beneather was based on his posts, not just activity). Tolkiens pre-death post.. On February 25 2014 11:59 Lord Tolkien wrote: Alright, to present my thoughts for tonight. If I live through the night, I'm going to laugh my ass off. I'm prime night kill territory. Either they read a player whose far more active town than I and less under suspicion (nope), or they bought the sorta soft-blue vet claim. Which was bullshit; I'm a vanilla townie. I was just gonna use it to try and dissuade night kills on me (which my day 1 scumminess was enough to do also). Yep, I don't disagree. Leaving myself, amiko and dragoon who are all reasonably suspicious alive is a higher % play for mafia. If you were alive, literally my whole day was going to be trying to figure out why. First, if I die, ignore the night post with my reads. It was an attempt at scum-baiting. It will only be useful if I end up living into Day 4, as it would let me give a night-time read, so to speak, based on the kills. Done. Why do I think Valenius is scum? Consider the Day 2 lynch. He was the first to vote for N1K0, given both of them were under suspicion then, but doesn't offer the main case. Given N1K0 didn't offer anything in defense, it makes him a free lynch. Poor mafia play, or a coordinated play by a scum Valenius and N1K0 to clear Valenius of scumminess in everyone's eyes? Now why would they do that? If one of the two needed to be lynched, the goon (non-GF mafia) should take the fall, simply to prevent the possibility of a cop check becoming relevant Day 4. And if they could use it to make Valenius seem town? Double or nothing. I mentioned this above, however i'll try and expand on some of your specifics. In my mind, my case on n1k0 was pretty solid. Not 100%, but I had a 75% mafia feeling on him. The subsequent argument between myself and n1k0 only helped to confirm my read. I've mentioned before how I disagree with any post saying Beneather contributed more than I did day 1. Once then came in and posted his more eloquent views on n1k0, which helped sway some other votes (ty once, saved probably a lot of debating that day). As I mentioned above, I'm suprised it took anyone this long to really mention that voting n1k0 doesn't make me automatically town. In my mind, that doesn't clear anyone in that situation of being mafia. Additionally, it's highly likely that N1K0 was bussed, given his complete non-defense, as OnceKing noted in his last night post. Again, I disagree. I think he just fell apart. He didn't have a good enough response to any of the arguments thrown by me to start with, never mind the summary by OnceKing. It puts the Night 1 kill into perspective. Why kill Robik? Well 1), he had N1K0 at the top of his scum list and voted for him. But note who else is on the top: myself and Valenius. If you want to use this put me under suspicion if I live, I'm fine with it as I brought it up, but it does draw the all-important motives behind the kill. Why kill Robik? He had a good read on both scum. Why kill OnceKing? He told us to look at the voters for N1K0, and he was shaping up to be a good scum hunter. Meanwhile, he starts the first vote on N1K0 to clear himself. As I've mentioned above.. my day 1 play was a bit shaky. I'm the only one who drew any sort of case (in my eyes, I realise others don't necessarily see it as one) on Robik, so to scum-kill him when i've made that case (that no one else agrees with) would be more pressure than I'd feel comfortable taking. If theDragoon is scum: why kill Robik? He had a good read on N1K0, but there is nothing to implicate a second mafia. OnceKing? Given the direction we were taking is the bussing route, it could just be to remove a strong town player. However, this is a weaker motive argument than if Valenius is scum. Here, If I lived and saw Valenius die, the push onto Amiko would seem assured by his night kill. If I die, well, nothing much else can be drawn here. By sticking out on Valenius, it draws too much attention to him when N1K0 flips red, and by stating both Valenius and N1K0 are unlikely to be scum together, basically puts himself in the limelight for that statement. Very unlikely to be scum because of it. If i'm reading this correctly, it's pretty much what my view is on dragoon's vote. It still could be a masterful play in that it's so blatantly obvious to stay on me, that it hides itself. Fuck, not touching this reasoning again. Now, if Amiko were scum. It meant both scum were voting for Cavalinho early on, instead of letting town lynch me. Bit too much of an over-commitment, but a means to get it through and viewed as a mislynch. Amiko was largely indecisive Day 2 and didn't participate. He voted late like Beneather, so that is also disconcerting. Was non-committal in his decisionmaking between the two. Don't have time to check if it was before or after I voted too to make N1K0's lynch seem inevitable. OnceKing's death makes sense as well, given he told us to look for indecisive players bussing N1K0. Both scum voting for the same lynch on d1 does seem like an over-commitment, but it's those sort of plays that sometimes need to be made. The later votes on n1k0 (Tolkien/Amiko/Beneather) were ones I felt uneasy about. Solid cases had been made on him, so keeping the vote off doesn't serve much purpose. It puts more pressure on him to put up a good defense, which we can learn more from. (Okay, he crumbled in this case, but you'd expect a better defence). So yeah, I'd actually say that Amiko or Valenius is scum. I've listed Amiko in my scum reads so far all game, however he's been sort of at the edge, less so than other reads (Robik/n1k0). theDragoon's been in my town list since the start of day 2, along with Once. This is despite him slightly-scum reading me, and voting on me. His reads were.. somewhat understandable based on my day 1 play. If I were mafia, i'd be trying to clear myself of those suspicions on me. I think i've provided more meat than you can handle, amiko. I tried my best, so sorry :p NEXT POST ~ food soon plz Amiko, you've asked a couple of questions so here gooooooooooooos. I would welcome your comments, but here are the general questions I’d like you to respond to when you get time, I have some points to raise on them: @Valenius – do you think the kills are more consistent with me as mafia or theDragoon as mafia? Robik - I'm not sure. He never particularly reads theDragoon, where as he has a lot of posts on you, the majority saying you're townie. This is wierd, though; In his Town-> Mafia list, you're listed as more scummy than theDragoon. I don't understand his reasoning behind that. Killing him is more likely to have occured from yourself than theDragoon, as the myriad of his posts praising you provide better cover than a mixed/almost non-existant reception for theDragoon. The kill could also have been pushed by n1k0 though, it's not a 1 man team? (n1k0 listed as most scummy by robik.. maybe killing and hoping nobody really picks up on his list?) @Valenius – I think you owe us a fairly extensive post. I don’t even mind if it’s a case on me, I think your last few posts have been mostly lamenting inactivity without doing anything to encourage activity. Give us something meaty (this sentence was made to compete with Tolkien’s no context quote of the day) Done. @Valenius: How confident were you for your votes d2 at the time you made them? As i've stated earlier, probably around 75% raising up to 100% after the following argument with n1k0. NEXXXXXXXXT LT and I both have the same theory regarding Valenius. When I wrote my pre-day 4 post I thought I was being a bit paranoid about Valenius. After the n1k0 flip, I really thought that Valenius was town but now everything is adding up to Valenius being mafia. Initiating the vote on his teammate is the best way to clear his name and it worked. After n1k0's flip all the remaining players had a town read on Valenius, despite him being scrutinized pre-n1k0 flip for being scum. I wanted to look at the night kills to see if there was some sort of trend. Night 1: IAmRobik Night 2: OnceKing Night 3: Lord Tolkien IAmRobik On day 1 his top 3 scum, in order were: N1k0, Lord Tolkien and Valenius. He also voted for n1k0. If Valenius is mafia, then that's 2 guys in his top 3, which might have led mafia to think that he was on to them. Another thing to note is that Valenius voted for him on day 1. Come on, i've discussed my vote on him countless times over the last few days. Lord Tolkien agreed that my explanation for it was reasonable from my point of view, and that my reasoning for not switching had logic to it. "Initiating the vote on his teammate is the best way to clear his name and it worked." - It clearly didn't, please stop trying to portray me as if i was 100% town yesterday. Someone should've picked up that possibility of bussing yesterday (mentioned higher up zz) instead of giving me a free-ish pass. OnceKing He had the case that got n1k0, there's no question about it. He was the obvious target for a mafia kill because he got n1k0. This could be revenge for n1k0 or mafia was concerned that OnceKing might catch both of them. There's a bit of a trend going on now, both mafia kill targets were onto n1k0, with OnceKing being successful in leading a n1k0 lynch. The mafia are targeting people who are on to them. Am I alone in thinking that my case and subsequent posts on n1k0 were a good case too? Despite being the first to really go on him, i've got very little credit (apart from the flip-reads) on the n1k0 kill. Lord Tolkien He had a case on Valenius at the start of day 2 but voted for n1k0 after OnceKing's post. After that though he said his top 2 scum were me and Beneather. After Beneather's lynch/modkill he posted this: On February 25 2014 05:47 Lord Tolkien wrote: I think Valenius is town, and Amiko is definitely scum, and theDragoon is maybe scum. I'll make a last minute expansion post, but that's the gist of it. Lynch Amiko and win guys. If we're still following the trend where mafia are targeting people who are on to them, then this post could tell us who the last mafia is. That points to Amiko. I'm not sure if Amiko would be stupid enough to go for that, although it could be purely coincidence. As i stated right at the top, LT was the obvious obvious kill choice for last night. In summary, the night kills were on people who suspected n1k0 and Amiko. Based on the night kills alone, Amiko is the most likely mafia. In that case, I should probably be dead. Amiko's been in my scum reads each time so far. As of now I'm undecided on who to vote for, but I'm leaning towards Valenius because he was my strongest scum read on day 2 (pre-n1k0 flip) and I'd be really pissed if he doesn't get lynched and turns out to be mafia. Read my above post, don't be mis-guided by thinking how you'd feel after the game. -.- Right, food time. | ||
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