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Valenius, theDragoon's vote should be really convincing to you that he is mafia over me. Although you felt more scummy, I have to conclude he is mafia based on that post and I will not bother trying to convince him at this point.
His post totally the wrong direction for town. You are about to go to sleep. Your reads and vote will presumedly be locked in once you depart. Both theDragoon and I should be spending the last few hours we have to talk to you pressing you for reads, asking you questions, and trying to convince you of our towniness. We should be trying to get as much out of you as we can. Instead, theDragoon gives a general comment that he reread the filters and now he has decided to vote for me.
He has no questions for you, he is not trying to press anything. He posts a quick laundry list of concerns that you and I have discussed in some depth and provides no reasoning or insight as to why he decides they are scummy. Each point has been made before and each has been responded to.
theDragoon doesn't try to convince you that the responses were bad, because he can't.
ALSO WTF he notices that there are new posts but decides to vote before reading them? What's the rush? WHY WOULD YOU DO THAT
Also copchecks / godfather
Valenius, you and I went back and forth on this some. The only new point I want to raise is that the roles were secret, but there is no indication that they were random. I really don't think that a newbie game would be all random roles, anyway, I think it would be a balanced game.
Anyway even if I can't convince you that n1k0's comment is weird, theDragoon doesn't even care that we have discussed it, doesn't weigh in at all. He doesn't want more conversation on these points because your vote is on the wrong person.
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sorry I was going to write sleeping soon
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To be clear, theDragoon did "weigh in" only to the extent that he reads me as mafia from it, but he didn't provide any reasoning.
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On February 27 2014 04:56 theDragoon wrote:
He doesn't offer any sort of original argument to justify his vote on n1k0, criticizes n1k0 for backpacking, yet he does the same thing with OnceKing's post. He was also very hesitant to vote for n1k0 and does it without providing anything new, he essentially jumped the n1k0 bandwagon after seeing that there's no way for n1k0 to get out of the mess. All of this points to mafia Amiko.
Yes I did. I pointed out that I felt if he was town he would be giving his reads and thoughts so town could consider them post-flip.
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EBWOP - Yes I did is responding to asking for original argument.
(I haven't actually rechecked all the posts but I don't think anyone else raised that?)
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I just put the wrong word, it's not reads but responses. I mean look at day 2 and you will see he responded.
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On February 27 2014 06:21 theDragoon wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2014 05:48 Amiko wrote:If you believe I am mafia then: 1) You believe I voted on the same person as my mafia partner day 1.2) You believe the mafia further linked themselves when n1k0 backpacked on my readsNo one has offered an adequate reason for this. The only possible reason would be a weird WIFOM play and I can't even come up with a reason mafia would do that on the first day. There is no reason mafia would make that play given how split the votes were, they had plenty of options. n1k0 backpacked onto opinions that I made re: Robik's voting. He further linked us and there is no reason mafia would want to tie themselves together on this. if you believe that mafia had some plan to link themselves for WIFOM reasons, then you are discounting posts where I state that Cavalinho's vote on n1k0 is a towny play here, even if it didn't convince me (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821514) and where I even start to question n1k0 on his play during night 1 before the case is made on him day 2 (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=14#278). 3) You believe I was willing to vote on my mafia teammate although I wouldn't gain anything from it.Me voting on n1k0 doesn't make me appear more town, I even pointed out that I felt there was probably a mafia vote on n1k0 here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=19#363. If he was my teammate I voted for him for no reason. I will write more just I know Valenius is sleeping so this is a start One situation in which it would be a bad move to vote together is when one of you got lynched on the same day, then the other might be questioned for voting with the mafia. That early on in the game it doesn't really tell much about your alignment. You said it would be suspicious both mafia vote on the same guy, but nobody has really thought much of it until now, when you can't really trust anyone. I know that you voted Cav first, n1k0 likely followed to ensure a lynch, and it was n1k0's vote that broke the 3 way tie. Could n1k0 have voted for LT instead? N1k0 voting for Cav or LT would result in a mislynch, so why Cav instead of LT? Several players expressed having a strong town read on Cav (myself included), so it makes more sense for mafia to go for the person who is less suspicious. By the time you had voted for n1k0, he already had 3 votes on him, the best way for you to blend in, is to follow the town and vote for n1k0 since it's highly likely he will be lynched. Like I mentioned previously, your justification to vote for n1k0 was basically non-existant and you just jumped on the bandwagon.
If n1k0 and I were scum we had 2 votes to move. You think we would risk voting together to lynch a random town (Cavalinho) but not vote together to tie the votes and try to save a mafia?
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If he assumed that you two were both voting on the mafia, his goal of today should have been to convince you that I am mafia. Instead I think most of his posts were trying to convince me that you were mafia (until you and I had mostly indicated we were going to vote each other).
I have trouble saying that your filter is more town than theDragoons but his last post just seems so inconsistent with town that I can't really read it another way.
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On February 27 2014 06:30 Valenius wrote:
I have my answer to this, but i'd like to hear dragoon's response first.
I'm willing to point to a few things, there are responses that are easy to this, like if we linked ourselves d1, it would be too risky to vote together day 2 also.
This just again stresses how terrible it would be for mafia to vote on the same person day 1.
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On February 27 2014 06:29 Valenius wrote:
The part i've bolded: If you think i'm mafia throughout the day (which you did), then most of your focus should be on proving that to dragoon. I've tried to defend my towniness when questioned, and i've tried to draw conclusions on thedragoon, but most of my effort has been on you.
I get what you are saying, but I feel like we both have acted the same way here: if you are town, you mostly focused me. I mostly focused you. I don't feel either of us was really aiming our comments at theDragoon to convince him.
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^To explain this better
If you are town the same logic applies to you - you should have directed comments at theDragoon to try to convince him I'm mafia.
I can't say your logic is wrong, I'm just saying I'm town and I didn't follow that logic, if you are town then you know you are town and didn't follow it either.
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On February 27 2014 06:38 theDragoon wrote:@Amiko You said you were pressuring n1k0 during night 1 and here's something that I found a bit suspicious. Show nested quote +3) You voted with me on Cavalinho, but he flipped green. I don't know your read on me currently.
If you think I am town, you should conclude at least two mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia).
If you think I am mafia, you should conclude at least one mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia).
Where do you think mafia would tend to vote? We know for sure that one mafia voted on Cav, when you ask him if he thinks you're town why do you think at least 2 mafia voted for someone other than Cav? We know there's only 2 mafia or else the game would be over already. This part here sounds like you're trying to pin mafia on anyone other than you two. Why do you ask n1k0 where he thinks mafia would tend to vote? Since we know he's mafia, he'll answer that question pointing to the town players. If you're mafia it makes sense to ask this question to n1k0 since it helps point town towards the wrong people. Also, I'm pressuring you more than Valenius because there's more evidence right now pointing to you as the mafia, I want you to defend yourself and convince me that you are not mafia. I want to make the right choice here and instead you're redirecting everything being thrown at you towards me.
theDragoon, I responded to at least 2-3 of your points in the posts prior to yours which you said you didn't read.
On February 27 2014 04:33 theDragoon wrote:
N1k0 discouraging cop checks on Amiko despite labeling him as likely to be godfather but still calls him town
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=22#437
On February 27 2014 04:33 theDragoon wrote:
Amiko's day 2 play was shady and his hesitant to vote for n1k0 could mean he was waiting to see if he can salvage the situation
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=22#438
On February 27 2014 04:33 theDragoon wrote:
Amiko was trying to gather info night 1 for a more educated night kill despite Robik's warning that it might help mafia
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=22#430
On February 27 2014 04:33 theDragoon wrote:
Amiko and n1k0 both voted for Cav day 1, nobody really caught on until day 4 so it was a risk worth taking
THIS LOGIC IS BAD. If n1k0 and I are mafia, we have no idea who will catch onto it or not when we vote together. It was a needless risk where little was gained and it makes me look bad whichever day it is raised.
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Valenius is going to sleep soon so we should be talking with him, as town I have to make a case that you are more mafia than I am because I know I am town. If you are town your job right now is to convince him I am mafia.
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In other words just because no one called it out day 2-3 doesn't mean that it makes any sense to do the play day 1.
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On February 27 2014 06:48 theDragoon wrote:
I expressed my intent to switch my vote to n1k0 if it came down to the wire. The reason I wanted to do that was to bait mafia onto voting for Valenius, I would then switch my vote to n1k0 if that happened and we'd be able to see exactly who the mafia were. My guess is that you two did not want that situation from happening because that would result in 2 votes on Valenius, you and n1k0. Beneather was the wild card and nobody knew where he was going to vote, if he had voted Valenius then n1k0 would still get lynched. The safe play for mafia would be to bus n1k0, considering that most of the town was already on him.
1) Where did you express that intent?
2) I think that explanation is something you just made up.
You posted this following the vote on n1k0, why wouldn't you explain your mafia bait plan then? If you had that plan, why did you lie to town about your reasoning for voting on Valenius?
On February 22 2014 08:50 theDragoon wrote:
I probably look very suspicious right now, seeing as I’m the only remaining player who didn’t vote N1k0. I was the first person to vote for someone on day 2 and thought I had a really good read on Valenius, up until OnceKing posted his case on N1k0, I was convinced that Valenius was scum since I didn't even notice N1k0's piggybacking. As much as I liked OnceKing's post, my pride took the better of me and I wanted to be right about this, on the slim chance N1k0 flipped green I wanted to be the guy that got it right. As I previously stated I was okay with switching my vote in order to get a majority on N1k0 but that wasn't necessary so I stuck to my guns and hoped that my reads were right.
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On February 27 2014 06:48 Valenius wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2014 06:35 Amiko wrote:On February 27 2014 06:30 Valenius wrote:
I have my answer to this, but i'd like to hear dragoon's response first. I'm willing to point to a few things, there are responses that are easy to this, like if we linked ourselves d1, it would be too risky to vote together day 2 also. This just again stresses how terrible it would be for mafia to vote on the same person day 1. Actually, my post was going to center around how far gone I feel the vote on n1k0 was by that point. Pretty much everyone has said they felt OnceKing's was a really strong case. Following this (before you/beneather/n1k0 voted) I felt it would have taken a miraculous case to get the votes switched around enough to get n1k0 off. The only other vote so far that day is on me, and i'm the other likely lynch for that day, so you two would pretty much have to move onto me to get any traction going. The moment I flip green, both of you guys are under massive pressure due to the double vote on cav, and tehn double switch to me. That's why I don't think flipping on to me was actually a viable play.
That's exactly what I'm saying though. Two mafia voting together on day 1 is just bad mafia play (especially when there's only two mafia!). It means they cannot vote together to mislynch someone without looking scummy. If I was scumteam with n1k0 and our votes were split day 1, we'd be able to moved our vote onto you Valenius.
Basically, if you think I'm mafia then you think I did a really bad play day 1 so I couldn't make a play day 2.
But, you also think I did a really bad play day 1 with no meaningful gain. I mean Cavalinho even said he thought I was town (and also an asshole).
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On February 27 2014 07:03 theDragoon wrote:
How can I use my bait if I explain it first? Also, that situation did not happen so I didn't want to tell town about it just in case it might be useful later on. For the record I did not lie about staying on Val, I stand by that statement and it's still one of the reasons why I'm tempted to switch onto him. Right now you're looking a lot more scummy than Val so my vote's on you. If you really are town I need you to convince me that Val is mafia, we are so close to winning this and I don't want to make the mistake of voting for you.
However I'm not convinced right now.
1) If you had explained your bait in that post it would have affected nothing. Your post was after the lynch, so explaining it doesn't matter.
2) So if I understand this, you gave town a false/incomplete reason for your vote because revealing it later might somehow be helpful? Can you describe a situation where it would be helpful? I cannot :s
3) Ok he did reference changing his vote here
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20840967
But that still makes me feel this bait thing is something he just made up. Like you yourself said, how can you use the bait if you explain it first? How is that even a bait if you told everyone you would switch your votes?
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theDragoon you asked me to spend more time convincing you that Valenius is mafia. You provided some one-line reasons for why you voted for me. In the post above, I put links to the recent posts which you said you didn't read. Inside those posts are defenses. If you are town and find my arguments are convincing and believe I am town, you should believe Valenius is mafia by process of elimination. So you have some arguments of mine to work with.
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On February 27 2014 07:27 Valenius wrote:
At this stage, I quite honestly don't know. Amiko you've made decent arguments over the last page, and i'm hoping to god that you're not completely playing me which is a possibility. I'm trying not to factor that into anything, but it's obviously at the edge of my mind.
The biggest plus for you so far today, is that you are trying to look at dragoon as well. I know we've both kinda tunnelled on each other. I don't know about you, but i feel it was kinda set off by LT's pre-day post, where he focused on both of us, leading us to be on the defensive right from the start. That's the way i viewed it anyway, i was trying to defend myself (and then scum read you). Part of that's due to my previous reads, but i think it's partly because i had dragoon as town pre-d4, and LT didn't mention him as a likely scum.
I know what you mean by option 1, that's the WIFOM argument I'm referring to (Mafia wanted to portray themselves as a pair so they could argue they wouldn't do that). I think there is a good case to discount that option one, though, because whereas n1k0 piggybacked onto me, I don't think I did anything to encourage the idea we were together. I did question n1k0, even pointed out that I didn't feel I had questioned him enough in my post n1 and started trying to get information out of him.
And yeah I mean I have to consider theDragoon as more scummy given his play today. I'm not going to pretend I liked your arguments yesterday (MAFIA SANDWICH) but I just really do not like the quality or depth of theDragoon's play today.
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On February 27 2014 07:32 theDragoon wrote:
I don't know much about mafia game setups and the likelihood of certain roles appearing but from the point of view of mafia Amiko, it does look like a slip on n1k0's part. And it was really scummy how he calls you godfather then says you're town.
To read this as scum you have to decide there is no cop, but there is a godfather (a mafia role that exists to counteract investigative roles like cops). Okay, pretend you ignore this logical hurdle or decide maybe it's just a weird twist.
Then, you have to decide that it's more likely n1k0 would name his one mafia partner (linking us, again, and even in the same post where he is voting with me) as the person who the cop shouldn't check. I mean I feel like n1k0 would have changed his name to aniko if he could have he was tying himself up with me so much. I keep making the same point I guess, but that just makes no sense for mafia to do.
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On February 27 2014 07:27 Valenius wrote:
At this stage, I quite honestly don't know. Amiko you've made decent arguments over the last page, and i'm hoping to god that you're not completely playing me which is a possibility. I'm trying not to factor that into anything, but it's obviously at the edge of my mind.
The biggest plus for you so far today, is that you are trying to look at dragoon as well. I know we've both kinda tunnelled on each other. I don't know about you, but i feel it was kinda set off by LT's pre-day post, where he focused on both of us, leading us to be on the defensive right from the start. That's the way i viewed it anyway, i was trying to defend myself (and then scum read you). Part of that's due to my previous reads, but i think it's partly because i had dragoon as town pre-d4, and LT didn't mention him as a likely scum.
I will mention (though this runs against me being able to convince theDragoon you are mafia) that I feel if you were mafia your best play would have been to say sorry I have to sleep and disappeared a few hours ago. You have not. I feel your best play would be to be more aggressive on me at this time, and you have not.
It's possible that theDragoon's comments have just been a lot worse today for some reason, and it's possible that you want to secure your hold on theDragoon. But I have to see theDragoon as increasingly mafia. I don't know I'll keep fighting for as long as you are up.
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OH GOD okay well you made the right decision.
I just have to make sure you made the right decision for town
theDragoon, WELCOME TO THE SANDWICH.
theDragoon, Here's what I need from you:
First, dude, read the posts that came before your vote and try to give me some responses on that.
Second, from my view, if you are town then Valenius is mafia. If he is mafia, I think he would only move his vote if he felt he had a better chance of changing my mind (which had been mostly presenting him as mafia) than I had of changing yours (which I feel like wasn't getting us anywhere).
Third, although I'm happy Valenius is convinced enough I am town to change his vote, I admit I don't feel this post is as damning of you (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20876925), I suppose because I also felt he was probably town based on the n1k0 vote. Even so, I'm going to reread the posts around it and I'd appreciate if you respond to the post if only to give me more reads
So I would like your response on it but to be honest I think I will need to reread your filter a little to figure out why it matters
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EPT
