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Working under the 2 mafia game assumption-
4 town vs. 1 mafia. Even if we mislynch Beneather, we should have 2 town vs 1 mafia tomorrow.
On February 22 2014 11:51 Lord Tolkien wrote:
I would currently advocate being ready to claim blue roles Day 3 (at worst, Day 4), and for Vigi (if we have one) to shoot either tonight or Day 4 night.
Here's what I think re claims, tell me if you agree:
If cop has a red check, they should claim. If the mafia counterclaims, we lynch both players and win.
If cop has green checks then I'll leave it to him to decide how to play it since there might be a godfather.
On February 22 2014 12:21 theDragoon wrote:
Could OnceKing have used his power on himself? I really think he should have given his play on day 2.
Typically they can't.
If 2 town mislynch with 1 mafia remaining, then 1 town 1 mafia go into the night. If the last town is a vigi, the mafia and town shoot each other, do both sides win?
(Obviously this isn't a situation to aim for, I thought of that seems funny given the win conditions in the first post)
On February 22 2014 11:51 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Minor correction: OnceKing stated the N1K0 case, and I started the Valenius case Day 2 (I also decided to point out N1K0 as a possible open case). Valenius started the first vote on N1K0, but the crux of the case was made by OnceKing.
Yeah sorry I sometimes get you and OnceKing confused sometimes because you are a Lord and he is a King :3
Just to be clear, I agree OnceKing brought a focused case but to me that's irrelevant to why Valenius is town - I think if he was mafia he would not have put up his post attacking n1k0 here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20833101) where he names him as his top read and would not have put his vote on n1k0. If he was mafia I think he would have followed the path of discussion of OnceKing discussing theDragoon.
I can understand suspicion on me given my day 2 play. I didn't feel as strongly on n1k0 as you guys did and went back and forth between the three potential votes. I'll be around tomorrow morning but out tomorrow afternoon to evening so my responses may be a little later. There's a long time until the night, though.
Since I feel the most-town people aren't very contentious, maybe theDragoon and I should try to make a case on each other in case Beneather flips town?
Not much to add except
##Vote: Beneather
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Cycle ends in about 2 hours, I'm going to hold off on posting anything too substantive because if the game is over it'll save me from making conclusions that may be wrong :3 If we go into night then I will try to make a case. I saw theDragoon has another game here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=434723) so maybe I can draw something off of that.
On February 22 2014 12:21 Valenius wrote:
oh, and are you guys planning on joining in on the next newbie game? I think I will, it's been good fun.
(If any of you dare try to pull me up for not only speaking about this game..)
I'm not sure, but I probably won't ^^; I do kind of want to try a larger setup though so maybe if there is one I will try that.
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Two quick points
1) There’s gotta be one mafia left.
2) All the town deaths but OnceKing have been vanilla town, so we probably still have a cop.
Cases
I would encourage people to try to hold reads close to the chest tonight – if we go into day 4, it’ll be 1 mafia vs 2 town, so we want to avoid letting mafia manipulate votes. During night I would still encourage people to try to make cases and challenge play. My general goal for tonight will be to try to draw out a lot of scummy things on people so we can talk about them tomorrow. If I draw a case on everyone, then who knows where my vote will end up 
theDragoon
Day 1: Voting for a blue?
theDragoon’s day one play appears a little unusual, but is largely explainable if you consider him to be mafia. During this part of the analysis, keep in mind that theDragoon’s vote day one was on Lord Tolkien.
In this post he discusses Tolkien as a potential vote (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=8#156). There’s a few weird things about this post, but this stands out as scummy when discussing Lord Tolkien
On February 17 2014 15:37 theDragoon wrote:
He'd be one of my lynch targets on day 1 just because I want to see if he's scum pretending to be blue. If he does get lynched and ends up flipping blue then it looks bad on me. However, I don't feel too strong about this one to vote him just yet.
Here, theDragoon is suggesting that we lynch someone who is softclaiming a blue role. If Tolkien was lynched d1 and flipped as a blue role, how would that information have helped town? This is such a weird suggestion it really throws me (and I feel bad for not criticizing it before).
In case you thought theDragoon might just be scumhunting with a weird vote proposal, it’s clear he is serious about Tolkien here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821257), where he casts his vote. He ultimately sets his vote on Lord Tolkien on the grounds that Tolkien references the mafia QT.
I would classify the basis for his vote on Tolkien as scummy at worst, and very weak at best.
saving a mafia
At the end of day 1, I did some notes on who could have saved Cavalinho. While I’ll grant that theDragoon’s vote is somewhat consistent I’ll point this out:
theDragoon hesitated to name n1k0 scummy, but later implied that n1k0 was his second scumread. He named Cavalinho as towny. Nonetheless, he did not move his vote from Tolkien (who he voted on with a very weak justification) to n1k0, who we know to be scum. The confusing votes from theDragoon make much more sense when you realize he is trying to avoid lynching his mafia teammate n1k0.
Moving into day 2
Short Memory / Following the Scum?
Day 2 theDragoon seems to forget his reads day 1.
Although Tolkien was his top scum read, he starts day 2 by following the path Lord Tolkien sets before him here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=15#297) and follows them through the day.
The Choice Not Taken
Something to note as we look to day 2 is theDragoon’s reads on n1k0. Basically, theDragoon continues to mention n1k0 as a potential scumread, someone who could be voted for another day. theDragoon basically argues that he now wants to lynch Valenius – if Valenius is green, then we should vote n1k0 later. However, for some reason he resists the opposite order, which would likely accomplish the same result, because of pride (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20848746). This explanation strikes me as weird – for one, it’s not using any logic/knowledge/reads, so it’s a weird justification to begin with. Second, it seems to me that the pride-saving move is to bandwagon– then if you are wrong, you are wrong with everyone else.
A Decent Argument
theDragoon’s reads on n1k0 also seem unusual. In this post, theDragoon says that n1k0 made a decent argument for n1k0’s vote on Cavalinho. (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=15#297).
Go to this post and search for anything prior to it mentioning n1k0.
You will find theDragoon’s post suggesting he sees contradictions in n1k0’s posts (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821516).
You will find the posts I mentioned earlier where theDragoon says he reads n1k0 as slight scum.
You’ll only find one argument from n1k0 for his vote on Cavalinho here. (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=12#234) But, theDragoon specifically calls this post out as giving him a scum vibe (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821257) .
What this means is, theDragoon justifies not voting n1k0 based on townreading n1k0’s argument... after he previously calls the argument scummy .
OnceKing
I previously questioned why OnceKing wasn’t killed night 1 when he established himself as a strong town leader. I remember thinking that maybe mafia was trying to avoid hitting the targert of a medic save. But, note that here, OnceKing names theDragoon as a “definitely town” (ok to be fair he names me too) – this may explain why mafia did not target him for the n1 kill.
Another possibility is that mafia (somehow?) didn’t notice OnceKing’s town presence day 1. At first this might sound silly because to me, OnceKing was firmly establishing himself as a town leader day 1. But, note this post:
On February 22 2014 12:21 theDragoon wrote:
Could OnceKing have used his power on himself? I really think he should have given his play on day 2.
This suggests that theDragoon only noticed OnceKing's town play on day 2. We know he noticed after his scumpartner n1k0 was lynched,
On February 21 2014 12:49 theDragoon wrote:
This feels so good, my last mafia game we had no successful lynches so it puts a huge smile on my face seeing that red text show up. OnceKing you are the MVP for this one.
and OnceKing is killed that night. If you look through his filter, you'll also see theDragoon doesn’t discuss OnceKing’s towniness as much as most other players.
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That’s all I can contribute for now. It was written in a pretty long sitting so hopefully it's kind of coherent. I had fun with the little section titles at the end, lol.
I do want to be clear on this post (and it’ll be the same for Tolkien when I pull one together) – I decided before I started the goal was to make a case on theDragoon. Working through this has made me review a lot of posts and I think I’ve come away with some reads that I didn’t have before (unrelated to theDragoon) so I would encourage you guys to try too :D we are going into a bona-fide 3 player standoff which is probably the coolest way a mafia game can end.
As usual I'll be working tomorrow morning, if I have time in the afternoon I'll write up some notes on Tolkien or Valenius
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Oh also I looked through theDragoon's other game and I didn't feel like I could pull anything meaningful, but if someone else sees something please do bring it up!
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theDragoon - I am glad you responded- I will try to explain what my reads are you following that post tomorrow if we are both alive.
I feel that if you are town and alive tonight, you will help tomorrow’s discussion most by raising a case. I think you should post a case on someone regardless of whether they are your most scum read. The people alive can weigh the cases and defenses tomorrow given the information they have (that they are town & potentially informed by cop checks).
Also honestly reading through someone’s posts again I noticed a lot of things I didn’t the first time through or when I re-read without purpose. For example, re-reading I noticed this one-
On February 21 2014 05:18 N1k0 wrote:
Right now i'm the likely candidate to be lynched, what do you guys think each possible flip means?
Why would town ask what the result is they flip red? We should have hammered n1k0 on that I think. Anyway that doesn’t really matter as much because n1k0 is dead, but I just mention it because I noticed a few other things I will share tomorrow if I am alive and maybe you will notice some things too if you re-read to make a case.
Be back later, at least we have an exciting finish :3
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(to Tolkien's post which came later) Ehh I really don't think we should post your top scumreads in the night (or at least do that in your last minute post), but since you did already I'll just say if you can make your case I'll respond to it and hopefully convince you that I am actually town.
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There’s a few things I want to bring up now and some analysis I want to hold until after you both put some starting responses.
First off, this is going to be the last day if anyone wants to claim cop please start off with that and list your checks so we can evaluate your play/checks. I have a little more to say on this in a responsive post but not right now. I am not a cop, though.
theDragoon, I felt the case I wrote against you was fairly weak. I am not decided at this point whether you or Valenius is the last mafia. My post reading Valenius as town after the n1k0 lynch was honest and I felt he was a reliable town.
However, when I was making a case for you I noted that you had a similar conclusion here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20838473) so I was concerned that a mafia Valenius would leave the two of us alive because we both indicated we read him as town. Tolkien also gave Valenius a town read in this post (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=19#368). The only thing I can really distinguish on this point is that you and I both indicated we were still somewhat solid on our reads of Valenius – I did here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20849478) and you did here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20864161). Tolkien didn’t really comment on it afterwards that I can see until his pre-death post.
Based on that, my feeling coming into today was that if Valenius was mafia, he would probably not kill one of us; based off that read, I felt that if you died my read on Valenius as town was more likely to be correct - if he was mafia it would be very unlikely he would kill one the two people who had so recently named him town.
That said, Tolkien was the target for tonight. Although I had some concerns about Valenius, I was pretty surprised to see Tolkien finger him as a first priority lynch in that last post.
On February 25 2014 11:59 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Next, I would say that my reads list is purposefully wrong to scumbait. Valenius is who I would currently look to lynch; him or Amiko. Valenius first priority.
Why do I think Valenius is scum? Consider the Day 2 lynch. He was the first to vote for N1K0, given both of them were under suspicion then, but doesn't offer the main case. Given N1K0 didn't offer anything in defense, it makes him a free lynch. Poor mafia play, or a coordinated play by a scum Valenius and N1K0 to clear Valenius of scumminess in everyone's eyes? Now why would they do that? If one of the two needed to be lynched, the goon (non-GF mafia) should take the fall, simply to prevent the possibility of a cop check becoming relevant Day 4. And if they could use it to make Valenius seem town? Double or nothing.
I’ll go through your response to my case also.
On February 25 2014 04:36 theDragoon wrote:
I was concerned at the fact that LT was basically saying that only the veteran would be active on day 1 because they feel can take a hit. What I was thinking at the time was that LT was putting fear in town from being active unless they were a veteran so that we wouldn't have as much information to gain from players posting actively. You also forgot to mention that I put myself at huge risk of being lynched if LT flipped blue and I would be instantly lynched on day 2 because of my incorrect read. If I was mafia and thought LT was a blue role and I pushed his lynch, how bad of a mafia play would that be to make on day 1?
This is one of the points I raised on you that I did feel was legitimately scummy. I wasn’t sure what Tolkien’s role was, but I didn’t feel comfortable voting for someone who hinted at being a blue role, even if he was voting for OnceKing who I named as towny.
I absolutely agree your point that it would be a bad mafia play on your part because you’d expect to get negative attention day 2. For what it’s worth, by the same logic, if n1k0 and I were a scumteam, having both mafia players vote on the same person day 1 (who, if we were mafia, might even flip blue!) seems like an even worse play to me.
On February 25 2014 04:36 theDragoon wrote:
Also, about the slip regarding the mafia QT, I previously mentioned it might have been a reach on my part but it made perfect sense to me that he could have slipped up about mentioning the mafia QT, which I was never thinking of since I don't have access to it. Doesn't it make more sense for the person using the mafia QT to be the one talking about it?
I can follow this logic, I just felt like it was a weaker justification than votes on other people.
I also raised the Cavalinho vote issue- I agree with your points on that. I felt like this was a weak read (I even noted the Cavalinho thing myself), but it was something to push you on.
On February 25 2014 04:36 theDragoon wrote: A Decent ArgumentShow nested quote +What this means is, theDragoon justifies not voting n1k0 based on townreading n1k0’s argument... after he previously calls the argument scummy Wow, I justified not voting n1k0 because I had a better scum read on LT. Thanks for putting words into my mouth. Also, I never said that I found n1k0's posts contradictory, I was asking Cav why he didn't pick apart the contradictions that Cav himself found. I asked because I couldn't find any contractions myself. Again, you are putting words in my mouth.
Sorry, I am confused by your response to this one, maybe I misunderstood what you meant in the earlier post or in this one. Which post by n1k0 were you saying was a decent argument?
In sum, theDragoon, we came into day 4 having indicated that we townread Valenius. At some point in this day we are going to have to start voting. If we cross voted I don’t know who Valenius would pick. But, if he is mafia and we are both town, we need to make sure that we are as sure as we can be that we can trust him to make the right choice.
My plan for tomorrow is to try to re-examine Valenius and see what reads I can get out of him and not let my read hang entirely on the n1k0 vote. I also need to give Tolkien’s post a closer look.
I would welcome your comments, but here are the general questions I’d like you to respond to when you get time, I have some points to raise on them:
@theDragoon – do you think the kills are more consistent with me as mafia or Valenius as mafia?
@Valenius – do you think the kills are more consistent with me as mafia or theDragoon as mafia?
@Valenius – I think you owe us a fairly extensive post. I don’t even mind if it’s a case on me, I think your last few posts have been mostly lamenting inactivity without doing anything to encourage activity. Give us something meaty (this sentence was made to compete with Tolkien’s no context quote of the day)
@Valenius @theDragoon: How confident were you for your votes d2 at the time you made them?
I'm super sleepy now x.x but I'll try to be extra attentive to the thread tomorrow since it's exciting lylo times.
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(Oh also I have more to say about Tolkien's post but I am already up too late)
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I started a post but I didn’t get through nearly as much as I was hoping. More coming once I’m home, but here’s a few things I can post to keep discussion going.
Tolkien’s Scumbait Post
On February 25 2014 05:47 Lord Tolkien wrote:
I think Valenius is town, and Amiko is definitely scum, and theDragoon is maybe scum.
I guess I figured there was a chance Tolkien’s night post was mafia bait given his phrasing - if Tolkien thought I was “definitely scum” then there’s no way he could see theDragoon as “maybe scum” (because there’s just one mafia left). The important post to me is Tolkien’s second so we’ll get to that.
My Discussion of Cops
This is something I didn’t want to address in my first post because of the possibility one of you two would claim cop but I’m fine with raising it now.
Valenius mentions my reference to the cop here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20869986). My posts re: cop were just an attempt at either scumbaiting or trying to draw a bullet. I’ll explain both.
First off, I don’t think I’ve ever seen or played a mafia game without some kind of investigation role, so I came into this game assuming there would be a cop. After OnceKing flipped as doctor and I felt there were almost certainly just two mafia, I really re-examined that assumption considering the numbers of the “automatic balance tester” (http://hamumu.com/forum/showthread.php?p=263954). To explain, the numbers come out as follows:
2 mafia goon (-12) vs. 5 vanilla town (+5), 1 cop (+7), and 1 medic (+5) = +5 = town favored
1 mafia goon (-6) and 1 godfather (-7) vs. 5 vanilla town (+5), 1 cop (+7), and 1 medic (+5) = +4 = town favored
2 mafia goon (-12) vs. 6 vanilla town (+6) and 1 medic (+5) = 0 = balanced
Based on those numbers I concluded damn, we probably have no cop.
But, my post suggested that I felt there was probably a cop. This was to invite mafia to claim cop.
If we had two people claim cop today, then the game becomes easier – since one would be lying, we’d essentially have a confirmed town (the non-cop).
If one person claimed cop, the numbers would suggest to me that they were probably mafia faking the claim and expecting no counter claim (because no real cop is in the game).
So, if either of you claimed cop, that would have been nice.
Um… you can still claim it though :3 pls?
Alternatively, my post might make mafia think I was cop. I didn’t think this was very likely because I feel my play doesn’t look like a cop… cop Amiko probably would have checked n1k0/Beneather/Valenius given my perception of them as potentially scummy lurkers who were unlikely to be killed by mafia. But, if mafia thought I might be cop, they might hit me and leave a town player who appeared more towny (Tolkien, potentially Valenius) alive.
The post didn’t really give me any information but I can understand why my post seemed weird.
I guess I could suggest it’s more scummy that Valenius raised the point (maybe he was considering killing me or claiming cop?) but that feels like weak grounds for a read.
Night Kills
theDragoon does mention that two of the people who had initially voted for me d1 were night killed (Tolkien and OnceKing). I guess that’s true, but they didn’t even vote for me so it feels like reaching that I would want to kill them for suspecting me d1.
I don’t get any significant reads from the kill on OnceKing. From my point of view, he was an obvious kills for mafia at least because of his strong town play and because people perceived him as town.
Tolkien feels somewhat similar to OnceKing – he’s also a strong town player who people perceived as town. I think we can get a little from his kill, though, because mafia is specifically looking at a LYLO situation.
The weird think about these kills is that OnceKing didn’t get killed day 1. In other words, Robik’s death feels more significant because he was killed instead of another more town player (OnecKing). So, I’m going to focus a little more on the Robik kill.
Kill on Robik
First off, I’ll grant that IAmRobik was suspicious of confirmed scum n1k0, so there is some justification for killing him regardless of who last mafia is.
1) A mafia Amiko probably would not kill IAmRobik.
I’ve referred to my “who could have saved Cavalinho” post a few times. I’ll grant that the case wasn’t strong, but think about how a mafia Amiko would see the game. Mafia Amiko had made a case using vote analysis on IAmRobik. Mafia Amiko could push on IAmRobik day 2 hoping to get another mislynch while also appearing more town (by being proactive). In reality, the target of my n1 pressure was killed, so I ended up feeling very unsure about day 2 because the two people I had pushed on (Cavalinho & Robik) had both died and flipped town, and I wasn’t satisfied with the responses we were getting.
I’ll also note that n1k0 did start to backpack onto my points on Robik. Given that we had both just been the only two votes mislynching Cavalinho, it seems like drawing ourselves further together is just making us seem like an even more obvious team. I’ll grant there is probably some crazy WIFOM play where two mafia do the exact same thing, but that just seems like a lot of commitment for no reason… If I was mafia, I could have moved my vote off Cavalinho and gotten Tolkien lynched instead (he was the second to get two votes). I had raised a few points that made me seem him as mafia, so I think I would have had a legitimate reason to separate the mafia votes while getting a mislynch. Moreover, the mislynch would be among three people instead of just two, and I would have saved Cavalinho (who had indicated he thought I was town, even if he was a jerk about it).
Based on that, I think (1) mafia Amiko would not kill IAmRobik and (2) an Amiko & n1k0 mafia team would link themselves so much when they don’t need to do so.
2) A mafia theDragoon probably wouldn’t kill Robik
Tolkien mostly covers this, I have just a point to add below. I agree with the analysis here.
On February 25 2014 11:59 Lord Tolkien wrote:
It puts the Night 1 kill into perspective. Why kill Robik? Well 1), he had N1K0 at the top of his scum list and voted for him. But note who else is on the top: myself and Valenius. If you want to use this put me under suspicion if I live, I'm fine with it as I brought it up, but it does draw the all-important motives behind the kill.
Why kill Robik? He had a good read on both scum. Why kill OnceKing? He told us to look at the voters for N1K0, and he was shaping up to be a good scum hunter. Meanwhile, he starts the first vote on N1K0 to clear himself. Now, if I survive, it depends entirely on who dies, but I assume theDragoon dies over Amiko based on the false reads I was giving leading up to here. If I don't live, he can sit back and watch town try to lynch each other.
If theDragoon is scum: why kill Robik? He had a good read on N1K0, but there is nothing to implicate a second mafia. OnceKing? Given the direction we were taking is the bussing route, it could just be to remove a strong town player. However, this is a weaker motive argument than if Valenius is scum. Here, If I lived and saw Valenius die, the push onto Amiko would seem assured by his night kill. If I die, well, nothing much else can be drawn here. By sticking out on Valenius, it draws too much attention to him when N1K0 flips red, and by stating both Valenius and N1K0 are unlikely to be scum together, basically puts himself in the limelight for that statement. Very unlikely to be scum because of it.
Now, if Amiko were scum. It meant both scum were voting for Cavalinho early on, instead of letting town lynch me. Bit too much of an over-commitment, but a means to get it through and viewed as a mislynch. Amiko was largely indecisive Day 2 and didn't participate. He voted late like Beneather, so that is also disconcerting. Was non-committal in his decisionmaking between the two. Don't have time to check if it was before or after I voted too to make N1K0's lynch seem inevitable. OnceKing's death makes sense as well, given he told us to look for indecisive players bussing N1K0.
The only thing to add to this is that theDragoon also has less reason to vote for Robik because Robik called him town
(http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20820245).
3) A mafia Valenius would see Robik as a high priority kill
I stress the high priority. Ending d1, I felt like ok, OnceKing will probably die because he presented as somewhat towny, got discussion going, and didn’t tunnel on a mislynch like I did. Tolkien’s discussion (above) provides one reason that separately from n1k0, Valenius would have seen Robik as the kill.
In summary, Robik might just have been killed because he was calling out mafia n1k0. But, I still think that besides n1k0, theDragoon and I had reasons not to kill Robik, whereas Valenius had reasons to kill Robik.
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@Valenius and @theDragoon: Did you see OnceKing as a likely kill night 1?
I gave one point regarding my day 2 activity in this post (why I wouldn’t kill Robik) but I’ll try to give you more defense of it in a later post if you see it as scummy
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@theDragoon If you answered this sorry I missed it, please do:
On February 25 2014 16:22 Amiko wrote:Show nested quote +On February 25 2014 04:36 theDragoon wrote: A Decent ArgumentWhat this means is, theDragoon justifies not voting n1k0 based on townreading n1k0’s argument... after he previously calls the argument scummy Wow, I justified not voting n1k0 because I had a better scum read on LT. Thanks for putting words into my mouth. Also, I never said that I found n1k0's posts contradictory, I was asking Cav why he didn't pick apart the contradictions that Cav himself found. I asked because I couldn't find any contractions myself. Again, you are putting words in my mouth. Sorry, I am confused by your response to this one, maybe I misunderstood what you meant in the earlier post or in this one. Which post by n1k0 were you saying was a decent argument?
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theDragoon:
I was referring to this post (the 'decent argument' was a quote from you that I was confused about):
On February 20 2014 01:45 theDragoon wrote:LT believes that the most likely mafia are the day 1 lurkers: Valenius, N1k0 and Beneather. I just went through each of their filters and Valenius has been the most active of the three but also his posts have the least amount of substance. Even Beneather pointed it out in his latest post: Show nested quote +On February 18 2014 10:45 Beneather wrote:
As the deadline comes closer, the scummiest person that I have read so far is Valenius, he doesn't contribute anything to town's efforts of deciding on a scum and just posts nothing of actual value. He brings up IamRobik and votes him but does not bring any reasons except that IamRobik has a problem with Valenius' posts, which is not a solid argument. I believe that Valenius might be scum because he is just posting things that look like it has contributions but in all honesty have no value. They are just restating the post and not providing any information and also has a lot of side tracking in it. As far as right now I believe that Valenius is mafia.
A lot of his posts are just him defending himself but not bring any value to the discussion. That seems very scummy, just showing up for the occasional defending but then disappear before attracting too much attention and just sit back and watch town try to lynch each other.
##VOTE Valenius I don't really have a strong scum read on Beneather because he's posted so little, so there's definitely better lynch targets than him. N1k0 has slightly more analysis than Beneather and some parts do look towny, but some are a little bit scummy. In particular I found that his mentioning of Amiko being godfather was rather scummy (which I previously mentioned) but says later that Amiko's posts swayed him towards a town read on Amiko. He was wrong about his scum read on Cav though, but he does make a decent argument for it. I'm waiting for his next post where he says he'll reply to Amiko, but as of now I'm not getting a strong scum read on him. I've already mentioned my thoughts on Valenius and with OnceKing and LT making their case against him, it's only made my scum read on him stronger. He's also posted very little value despite his number of posts. At this point, I think we need to start looking for scum pairs, if we get the right lynch today it might give us a lot of information on who to lynch on day 3. ##Vote Valenius
Going to get some dinner then try to put up some more ideas
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I think a few recent points Valenius have raised make no sense and I will highlight them here. I have a few comments to theDragoon also I’ll hit up next.
Godfather
On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote:Show nested quote +N1k0 said Amiko is likely to be godfather and warned any possible cop not to check on Amiko, then calls Amiko town. Yeah.. lol. This was either a major slip by n1k0 (a possibility given his overall play), or just trying to be townie. I'm leaning towards the former.
This analysis is illogical because we both should know there is almost certainly no cop (unless you want to claim it :3). With no cop, it makes no sense for there to be a godfather (the role would serve no purpose). Thus, it doesn’t make sense to read this as a slip by n1k0 at this point in the game.
On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote:
Both scum voting for the same lynch on d1 does seem like an over-commitment, but it's those sort of plays that sometimes need to be made. The later votes on n1k0 (Tolkien/Amiko/Beneather) were ones I felt uneasy about. Solid cases had been made on him, so keeping the vote off doesn't serve much purpose. It puts more pressure on him to put up a good defense, which we can learn more from. (Okay, he crumbled in this case, but you'd expect a better defence).
Sure, sometimes mafia may make desperate plays. But, none of the three of us would have felt desperate day 1. N1k0 and his partner each could have placed their vote on a few different people and still gotten a mislynch. Yes, mafia could vote together day 1 to get a mislynch, but there’s no reason they would group their votes when there is no cause for desperation, no need for over-commitment.
On February 26 2014 09:20 Valenius wrote:
I posted my thoughts on the Robik kill before, but in summary. You're posting about what a mafia amiko wouldn't do? A 'Mafia Valenius' wouldn't kill the guy who only I have a vote on, who's the only guy who raised any sort of suspicions on me that are worth responding to (more than the 'you're not contributing as much as me' posts). When I left the thread for that night, there were 2 votes on Cavalinho: Yours and n1k0's. It would have been a much better play to piggyback onto your votes, and make up some reasoning based around loosely what the d1 arguments against cav were.
Instead, I had him as a town read, and kept my vote on robik (Reasoning explained at length several times throughout the thread). To then kill robik that night when i'm the only vote on him is nonsensical. If I was playing mafia, My vote wouldn't have been on someone as obscure as Robik.
This bolded statement makes no sense. Of course mafia would want to kill someone who raised a case on them, particularly if they raised suspicions that were meritorious enough to require answering.
The point is, Robik was a weird kill for night one. But, it makes a lot more sense if the scumteam is Robik & n1k0. Keep this in mind for the next point.
On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote:
Robik - I'm not sure. He never particularly reads theDragoon, where as he has a lot of posts on you, the majority saying you're townie. This is wierd, though; In his Town-> Mafia list, you're listed as more scummy than theDragoon. I don't understand his reasoning behind that. Killing him is more likely to have occured from yourself than theDragoon, as the myriad of his posts praising you provide better cover than a mixed/almost non-existant reception for theDragoon.
Responding to this post actually made me groan. I thought to myself, that’s weird, I remember correcting someone on this exact point a day or two ago. So I looked up my post and it turns out Valenius I corrected you on this exact point earlier.
IAmRobik did read theDragoon, and he did so very strongly.
On February 20 2014 09:24 Amiko wrote:Valenius’ comment on my Analysis re: Cavalinho & RobikValenius argues here that I included a post from IAmRobik and misrepresent it as saying IAmRobik read Cavalinho as town: Show nested quote +On February 20 2014 05:51 Valenius wrote:
Amiko In your post listing off posts where IAmRobik read Cavalinho as town, you’ve included one where he agrees with your analysis of Cavalinho, early-ish in Day 1. Your reads from that post are that Cavalinho was scummy. Did you include this post in the hopes no one would read it, and to pad out your post ? What’s your reason for lying about the content of that post?
I think Valenius misread the IAmRobik post he is referring to. There’s two parts of IAmRobik’s post, I think Valenius read the second without putting it in context. Show nested quote +On February 18 2014 01:06 IAmRobik wrote:
I kinda like theDragoon's posts in the middle of page 7 and I am willing to remove him from my lynch list for today. While I don't agree w/ him on the conclusion regarding Amiko, I am 100% in agreement with the conclusion and case that he laid out with regards to Cavalinho being town
Show nested quote +On February 18 2014 01:06 IAmRobik wrote:
This is an excellent analysis post from Amiko and totally makes sense from his perspective. To answer his question regarding my lack of follow up, I don't know that OnceKing responded, but I really didn't care too much. I figured I should null read everyone and just assume that both mafia/town would have gotten some guidance from their coach if their post sounds too good: Valenius’ implication that I saw Cavalinho as scum, IAmRobik is saying he agrees with me, therefore he thought IAmRobik was scum. But, if you read the post in full (the bolded, 100% part, lol) I think it is obvious IAmRobik saw Cavalinho as town so my post wasn’t misrepresenting him.
Robik read theDragoon as town.
He read me as town.
He read you as scum and he read n1k0 as scum. He died the same night.
On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote:
I think i've provided more meat than you can handle, amiko. I tried my best, so sorry :p
You gave me meat. So I made a sandwich
A SCUM SANDWICH. (YOU ARE THE SCUM) (I HAD BREAD ALREADY)
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theDragoon:
[u]Night Posts[u]
In this post (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20871762) you point out that I push for night actions and suggest perhaps Robik was killed because he was against night discussion.
First off, just a gut answer - that seems to me like a really low priority reason for mafia to kill someone.
Second, OnceKing got killed the same night he posted we should contribute at night, and he was killed the same night.
Third, I still have a strong feeling that talking at night is good for town. I mean honestly, we tip mafia off to our reads during the day too. 24 hours of silence in the thread would suck.
On February 26 2014 06:48 theDragoon wrote:
Fair enough, but the difference I see between you putting Amiko in your scum reads and the other night kills were that they voted for the scum (n1k0), except LT. Also, during day 1, Amiko had three people vote for him, who later switched their votes for the final count. Of the three people who voted Amiko, two were night killed and one was lynched on day 1. There's no denying there's a trend in the night kills, what we have to determine is if it leads to the right direction.
I get what you are saying, but I don’t feel this is strongly indicative of town or mafia. The people who voted for me moved their votes off of me – they considered me and decided I was more town than scum, or that I was at least not as scummy as other players. I think mafia Amiko would want to keep them alive since they had a townread or nonscumread d1.
I imagine mafia amiko is me but with an evil moustache and black hat :3
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2-3 posts I will paste in- missing some lunch for this but WORTH I hope
This one is responding to Valenius' post
Valenius comment on n1k0 comment on godfather
On February 27 2014 02:55 Valenius wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2014 12:35 Amiko wrote: GodfatherOn February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote:N1k0 said Amiko is likely to be godfather and warned any possible cop not to check on Amiko, then calls Amiko town. Yeah.. lol. This was either a major slip by n1k0 (a possibility given his overall play), or just trying to be townie. I'm leaning towards the former. This analysis is illogical because we both should know there is almost certainly no cop (unless you want to claim it :3). With no cop, it makes no sense for there to be a godfather (the role would serve no purpose). Thus, it doesn’t make sense to read this as a slip by n1k0 at this point in the game. The post by n1k0 wasn't today.. it was early in the game. Earlier in the game we had no idea if there was a cop. Hell, we had no idea if there were 0 blue roles, or several blue roles. How can you try and compare a slip-read of earlier in the game, and pretend it's a slip-read for today? That makes no sense whatsoever.
N1k0’s post was early in the game, however your comment on n1k0’s analysis was not. At this point we know there is no cop, so it seems very unlikely there is a godfather. So it doesn’t make sense that n1k0 would
Just to be clear, this is all meta argument. It is possible the setup could have a godfather without a cop – this might confuse mafia into assuming there is a cop at the beginning of the game, or it might confuse town into assuming there is a cop if someone flips godfather. It is possible there is a town roleblocker, even though that role could serve no town purpose given the available roles (it can’t stop a mafia kill and can’t cancel a mafia roleblock, so essentially town roleblocker could only screw over a cop/vigi/medic).
To me, these things feel unlikely enough to me that they should be discounted. Based on the information I have now, I would see n1k0 calling someone godfather (when all signs point to no godfather) as mafia misdirection.
On February 27 2014 02:55 Valenius wrote:Show nested quote +
Sure, sometimes mafia may make desperate plays. But, none of the three of us would have felt desperate day 1. N1k0 and his partner each could have placed their vote on a few different people and still gotten a mislynch. Yes, mafia could vote together day 1 to get a mislynch, but there’s no reason they would group their votes when there is no cause for desperation, no need for over-commitment.
You say this, yet you're saying that I'm most likely to be killing robik based on his read on me for night 1? Is Day1 that much different to night 1 in that regard?
We had a lot of activity that could be seen as OMGUS on day 1. I voted Cavalinho after he voted for me. Tolkien voted for OnceKing after OnceKing voted for him. Cavalinho voted for n1k0 after n1k0 voted for him. I don’t see your vote on Robik as indicative of much of anything,
Robik read on theDragoon
Here we are talking about Valenius saying Robik never read theDragoon.
On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote:
Robik - I'm not sure. He never particularly reads theDragoon, where as he has a lot of posts on you, the majority saying you're townie. This is wierd, though; In his Town-> Mafia list, you're listed as more scummy than theDragoon. I don't understand his reasoning behind that. Killing him is more likely to have occured from yourself than theDragoon, as the myriad of his posts praising you provide better cover than a mixed/almost non-existant reception for theDragoon.
I posted one thing where Robik says he likes theDragoon and Valenius says that isn’t a strong read-
On February 27 2014 02:55 Valenius wrote:
In what universe does "I kinda like theDragoon's posts" equal reading him very strongly? I'm sorry if I'm being really dense here, but I can't understand where you got this conclusion from.
Robik equated that post to a read of theDragoon being town. He spelled it out a little more clearly here:
On February 18 2014 04:57 IAmRobik wrote:
I just haven't switched my vote yet. I do think TheDragoon is town as I expressed. I honestly forgot that my vote was on him.
##unvote
I hope you can understand how I read your posts and feel they are not correct, if you open Robik’s filter and search theDragoon these posts are there.
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Valenius posted something that I thought might help explain my day 2 since it was read as scummy play.
On February 27 2014 02:55 Valenius wrote:
I honestly do disagree with your entire reasoning behind this. If I were mafia, i'd be trying to blend in, not kill the person who's only raised a kind of case on me. As for "meritorious enough to require answering", I answered them because i felt they were scummy. I've gone through in great detail my thought process behind his posts. Beneather tried to point some suspicion at me too, but his post was absolutely worthless so it didn't require a response.
I don’t think anyone brought a strong case against my day 2, but it is generally perceived as scummy because I didn’t commit strongly to my reads. I agree with Valenius’ comment on Beneather here, and it is the main reason for my day 2 play.
In my mind day 2 was picking between three people – Beneather, Valenius, n1k0.
N1k0 contributed a few posts but almost all were backpacking.
Valenius had an actual case brought against him and was responding.
Beneather contributed two posts in two days that had any substance.
I felt the best thing town should do is focus on these three, but I did not feel we should vote so quickly. Look at how the day went-
When focus was on Valenius, he responded with reads.
When focus on n1k0, he responded with reads.
We didn’t focus Beneather, he didn’t respond with anything meaningful.
We know now that Beneather was probably idle, but if he was lurking mafia I think it was realistic to think if he became a focus, he would try to throw up some kind of defense. We didn’t get any real pressure on him and we paid for it. He became a liability for town nothing to read town or scum and a potential modkill. When we lynched Beneather we had no meaningful discussion because there was nothing to meaningfully discuss.
I get that you would both be more comfortable if I joined the voted on n1k0 earlier. But, Beneather's contributions were so empty that I felt we should to try to get information from someone who had somehow gotten by without posting substantively. My posts throughout the day reflect that and I think it was good play.
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3/3 - last few hours
Here’s where I am at.
I think I pushed a little on theDragoon and more on Valenius today and Valenius pushed more on me today. From the posts I feel Valenius is more likely to be mafia, but I don’t like that theDragoon is on the sidelines. Even so, when I tried to make a case on theDragoon I couldn’t really convince myself he was more likely to be mafia than Valenius.
I feel Valenius is probably the last mafia. However, if you are town Valenius I would ask you to post what you can about theDragoon. You can certainly respond to my posts but I think we spent more time going over you and me than theDragoon so maybe you will turn up something new.
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On February 27 2014 04:03 Valenius wrote:
Right. theDragoon, if you're mafia and you win.. fair play. You'll have completely fooled me. I have a stronger mafia read on Amiko, and i've tried combing through your filter.. but apart from the stuff posted over the last few pages (some by amiko), I really can't see anything more suspicious.
welp. That basically answers my 3/3 post (above this). Maybe we are only spinning wheels at this point, but if you have new comments on my posts please do post them.
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I guess there's probably only one more thing to raise with you Valenius-
Currently I still read you as scummier than theDragoon. There is some relaxation in thinking that well, if Valenius is town and he is voting wrong (which you are) then the game is lost at this point regardless of who I vote for.
For what it's worth, even if I convince you to vote theDragoon, I will probably still vote for you, so maybe the result won't change the game. But this does at least give town a better shot at winning because I know I am town.
We've both already tried to read through theDragoon's filter and we didn't come up with much. But, if you look at theDragoon and I, I think you can at least conclude that I have been more proactively scum hunting than him - he has been mostly defensive on himself without contributing as much to the points you and I have raised on each other.
Maybe we can't make a strong argument for theDragoon as scum, but I'd at least argue you can read me as more town than him. You haven't seen theDragoon put substantial questions to either of us, and I feel you can fairly conclude that I've justified my scumread on you with more than he has. Yeah, I am probably going to vote you, but if you are town then the only way we can win is if you vote theDragoon.
I'll likely eat a quick lunch and be back in about an hour.
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I'm back from lunch Valenius don't go to sleep yet :x
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If you believe I am mafia then:
1) You believe I voted on the same person as my mafia partner day 1.
2) You believe the mafia further linked themselves when n1k0 backpacked on my reads
No one has offered an adequate reason for this. The only possible reason would be a weird WIFOM play and I can't even come up with a reason mafia would do that on the first day. There is no reason mafia would make that play given how split the votes were, they had plenty of options.
n1k0 backpacked onto opinions that I made re: Robik's voting. He further linked us and there is no reason mafia would want to tie themselves together on this.
if you believe that mafia had some plan to link themselves for WIFOM reasons, then you are discounting posts where I state that Cavalinho's vote on n1k0 is a towny play here, even if it didn't convince me (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821514) and where I even start to question n1k0 on his play during night 1 before the case is made on him day 2 (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=14#278).
3) You believe I was willing to vote on my mafia teammate although I wouldn't gain anything from it.
Me voting on n1k0 doesn't make me appear more town, I even pointed out that I felt there was probably a mafia vote on n1k0 here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=19#363. If he was my teammate I voted for him for no reason.
I will write more just I know Valenius is sleeping so this is a start
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EPT
