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On January 21 2014 10:32 Mig wrote:
cephiro, you are incredibly annoying if you are town. At this point it has to be obvious to every single other person in the game my alignment. Just open your eyes. I do not have to make any cases to prove I am town, I have already done so.
... LOL. This has to be the biggest pile of crap I've heard in ages. So you don't have to do anything to prove you are town? Even in that case, if you really were town, why would you not try to convince others that I am scum, instead of just saying "Ceph is scum". You have to be scum because there is no way even a newbie player would be as thickheaded as you about what I'm saying.
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On January 21 2014 10:37 Mig wrote:
Do you honestly believe I am scum Cephiro?
Yes.
If you are town, I can't believe how ignorant you're being. And then you're even worse for thinking I'm scum.
@ Rayn: Oats is a fine lynch target as well, but I would insist on lynching Mig first. I have briefly mentioned others, but when there's one person not caring this blatantly I feel it's my duty to keep pushing that person until they actually do something that they can be considered town for, or get lynched and flip scum.
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On January 21 2014 11:00 Mig wrote:
Cephiro I really hope now that you are a town. So post game I can laugh at you and call you a moo cow.
And that would just make you even more stupid than you are proving yourself to be right now.
If you were town, is there a single reason why you aren't trying to prove why I'm scum (since you clearly think I am), and instead focus all your energy on speaking about unnecessary stuff. (What happened with Toad happened, going on and on about it does not get us further in this game). Not to mention the fact you're clearly trying to irritate me on purpose, which is something a townie would not do after given a reasonable request.
If you indeed are town, I assure you, you still have a chance of not making yourself look like an idiot. But not if you keep that up. So would you finally present some analysis as for why your scumreads are scum?
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On January 21 2014 11:20 Mig wrote:
Cephiro this game is pretty much over and I am going to treat it as such and just enjoy myself. So no I am not going to going to present any analysis for you. If you cannot determine I am town just by reading my previous posts and using some logical thinking then I am not going to hold your hand. Besides you don't even read my posts, I have already said I am not sure if you are mafia or just bad.
Defeatist attitude. Next time you don't care about trying to win, go do something else than play forum mafia. Don't ruin the game for those that actually do try, ok? Game is not over before it's over.
The fact you're repeating the same nonsense just proves you are the one not reading my posts instead of vice versa. I have multiple times mentioned that it's not even about proving yourself as town. If you were town actually playing to your wincondition, you would be trying to catch scum. At the moment you are just chatting about toad. You have called several players scum, yet provided no reason why they should be scum.
If you're unsure about my alignment, then how about the others you have mentioned? Why have you not followed up on any of those even after being requested such?
If your next reply is as ignorant as your other ones have been so far, there is absolutely no reason why you shouldn't be lynched tomorrow. And I swear, if you continue like this, and somehow end up flipping town, I am not playing a single game with you in it.
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I'm not ordering, but I think I've asked nicely enough at the start. It's expected of townies to provide information for each other, which is why I asked you to. I do agree with you that I may not have been motivating you to, but that's not my job either. I expect you to contribute since we're playing to win here.
As a townie, even if you may not particularly care about a certain persons opinions, if you have the slightest suspicion that they may be town, certainly you shouldn't completely ignore that person, even if he/she thinks you're mafia.
I will be going through your posts again, but to clarify my point, your overly carefree attitude is exactly one of the reason I suspect you to be scum. Meta does not matter anything to me, I do not base my play on meta. What someone usually does in a certain situation is no given tell, as experienced mafia players can more than easily fake that. I would expect you to know that.
Anyway, I'll leave you alone for now since I need to sleep. I will be providing other content than constantly hounding you, but there is a reason why I am constantly hounding you. Maybe if you provided what townies normally do, I wouldn't be hounding you like this. So I am expecting to see reasoning to your reads soon enough.
And no, I will not accept "I'm having a bad game and I don't really know." as an answer. Anything is better than nothing, and you should be easily able to do that.
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I am the SK and I am shooting Mig tonight.
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Mig is scum.
Koshi is town.
Hope is town.
Vayne is town.
2 remaining scum are in Oats/rayn/skan/Sn0
Rayn is the least likely of those, I believe him to be more likely town.
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That's horrible logic. I have been under no danger of being lynched, and still consider myself not to be. Why would I fakeclaim SK to avoid getting lynch when I'm not in danger of being lynched? Think about it for a second or two. Shouldn't be that hard.
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Those of you that are town, think about the situation for a second -_-
If I was scum, why on earth would I fakeclaim SK when I would have had absolutely no trouble not getting lynched today, hardly worth the risk. As you can see, there are people instantly doubting my claim. Do you really think I would have done this as scum when I was under no pressure at all? Come on...
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What do you assume to be the real situation?
You're quite obviously town, and Mig flipped town, which means at least one person is having me completely fooled right now.
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Next question. Game would have ended if I truly was the SK.
Now, given this information, we know there are 4 town players and 3 mafia players.
If there is a town vigilante (not day-vig), they should claim if they took a shot on N1.
I assume they would have done so by this point in the game since it would confirm us a townie which is fairly necessary.
Hopeless I believe to be rightful in his claim. I was thinking about the possibility that he'd be the SK claiming veteran w/ a bulletproof to force mafia into having to try and mislynch him instead of having to take two shots (or one, if hope was actually going for investigation-immune and had played a bluff), since no mafia would waste their shots on the SK early in the game if they suspected the SK would've taken bulletproof, thus leaving lynching the only viable option for mafia to get rid of SK. This would also have enabled the SK to play it safe since he'd return green to checks and would only be killed by lynch, making seeming townie enough to not get lynched not such a hard thing to do. But this is irrelevant now, since we know there is no SK. I am quite sure hope is not fakeclaiming veteran as scum so early on, and he is confirmed town in my eyes, until a situation comes up where I'm proven otherwise.
I am not lynching outside Oats/skan/Sn0 today.
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The question:
Knowing the game would have ended if I was an SK in this scenario, why would I have fakeclaimed an impossible scenario as scum?
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I will answer that soon enough. Next one:
If I was scum, do you think I would have pulled off this claim without informing my teammates?
--> Follow-up: Do you think a scumteam I belong to would have agreed to let go on with this claim of mine?
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Oh by the way, anyone claiming roleblocked? This is very important.
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Nono, I am going to win this game for town, believe me. I just have to finish my analysis with the information I have now.
Why I fakeclaimed SK as VT:
If Mig had been scum -> They could have used a roleblock on me (wasted resources)
If they had shot me -> VT taking a hit instead of possibly a remaining blue
If SK had existed:
Draw attention away from the real SK. (If there was one, we would have needed him to play for town).
If none of the above, multiple scenarios, where in each my play is extremely absurd, and followed up with my analysis will ensure every single townie that I am town, thus lessening the mislynch candidates for others by one.
JUST WAIT FOR MY ANALYSIS, TRUST ME TOWNIES, I GOT THIS. YOU HAVE TO GIVE ME A CHANCE TO BLOW YOUR MINDS.
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As for my claim.. these are the 1% situations (Scum believes SK still exists, which was a possibility if SK had hit medic protection or vet, or become roleblocked):
1) They take my claim seriously
--> 1a) [We now know Mig is town] -> They shoot anyone but Me, Mig, or their own team and win. Optimal play.
--> 1b) [If Mig had been scum] -> Roleblock Cephiro -> Avoids their team member being shot, causes a 3-1-3 mafia win if their shot goes through on a townie. This scenario no shot on Hope (vet claim).
If Vayne was a real rb, would have been the most likely target. Optimal play.
2) They do not believe my claim -> I have to be a fakeclaiming town.
--> Optimal play to shoot Cephiro. SK would not shoot someone fakeclaiming to be them in this situation.
---> Guaranteed to hit another target than the SK = Instant win if SK does not hit scum.
As you can see, in the different scenarios if the SK had existed, after my claim most of the optimal plays for scum consist of wasting an action on me.
I am a VT, and a wasted action on me would have been a good thing for town. (Real SK would have lived, possible remaining town powerroles would have lived.)
Then there are the 99% situations where scum goes with Occam's Razor, no SK in game.
1) They know my claim is fake
With information that we NOW have:
Scum has a vigilante.
There is no reason why town vigilante should not have claimed their action before N2 resolution period at latest.
Since there is no SK, this is the only possibility.
This means that scum also knew there is no SK.
The only exception for this would have been if the SK had shot a veteran, or a player under medic protection.
It is very reasonable for scum to assume no SK after N1 results.
--> This means scum knew my claim to be fake. They also know me to be town.
There is absolutely no reason to shoot a player people are already uncertain of.
How does an fake SK claim make from a town perspective?
Logical conclusion: It doesn't.
--> Absolutely no reason to NK Cephiro as town, if anything he looks like a likely mislynch after this.
Spicing it up: Whom of the remaining targets could they shoot to cause a most likely mislynch on D3?
Let's go through all assumptions as town. I tried to look at these from an unknown scumteam perspective.
Note that if any of these players is scum, they obviously would shoot their own, so it's not a possibility worth analysing.
Mig [Town]: Makes Cephiro look even worse. *Good shot*
Hope [Town]: Veteran claim, no reason to risk it and take a shot. *Bad shot*
Vayne [Town]: Roleblocking the same person again is a bad play, it would essentially confirm as town.
Unless try to force a mislynch with the scum rb's their own WIFOM. *Good shot*
Skan/Sno [Town]: Easy mislynch targets, both not very active and have been pressured before. *Bad shots*
Koshi/rayn [Town]: Both players that are considered fairly town. Would require a lot of effort to push for mislynch. *Good shots*
Mig ended up shot. A good play.
Why Mig over other good shots? There are a few conditions that raise the Mig shot value.
1) Other good shots are actually scum players.
2) Other good shots are not on track of real scum.
3) Maximize one target for mislynch.
We know for sure that 3) is true.
Now let's think about it.. why was Koshi/Rayn/Vayne not shot?
Remember that there are also no roleblock claims for D3 yet, which means the mafia probably withheld it for maximum wifom.
Vayne: Looks definitely worst, a previously claimed roleblock, and is still alive.
Koshi/Rayn: Koshi has not been very active, and rayn has been on wrong tracks fairly well so far.
If the choices for good shots were all town, scumteam would be Skan/Sno/Hope.
This is very unlikely however, and it is more likely at least one of the good shots did not get done because there is scum in there.
Vayne is the person I am most surprised of. Given the earlier roleblock, it would have made sense to shoot him if he was town.
Since they shot Mig, it is clear that I am their mislynch target of the day. They hardly could push a mislynch on a roleblocked townie,
counting on the wifom. Thus in my opinion it is very likely that Vayne is mafia.
1) Why would I fakeclaim SK as scum, knowing the situation I am about to claim is impossible.
2) Why would I do this without telling my teammates what I am about to do?
3) Why would they let me carry on with a horrible fakeclaim when I was in no danger of being lynched?
Any remaining town players will know I am town after reading this post. This is a free +1 confirmed townie for you remaining townies out there.
Now you have an easier time of deciding today's lynch when I am outruled as an option.
I also give you an extremely likely mafia in Vayne.
There is absolutely no townie that should be pushing for me after reading this post, which means you can consider anyone wanting to lynch me after this post to be scum.
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It would never happen. I prove it in my post. Shooting SK is not optimal since they win the game in other situations.
Assuming there is an SK (and we know it's not me):
If the mafia believe my claim, the optimal play is to shoot anyone but me or mig, which would have won them the game.
If they don't believe it and think it's someone else, the optimal play for their shot is to shoot me.
That leaves two options (which I had opened up earlier, thanks for pointing this out)
1) No roleblock -> Hope that the SK hits a town player for instant win. (SK would not shoot me or himself = 3/6 = 50% chance of ending game right there)
2) Roleblock one of remaining four players.
--> 25% chance of hitting SK --> Game will end right away.
--> 75% chance of hitting a townie --> SK has 50% chance of ending the game.
This means roleblocking would have been the optimal choice. This means if they would have feared there to be an SK, they would have used their roleblock last night on the player they assume to be SK.
That also means that if they had not hit the SK, and SK shot scum, we would have one confirmed townie in the player to claim the roleblock. Which actually proves my play as even better.
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Which I had not opened up in my earlier post*
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EPT
