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On January 23 2014 09:38 Hapahauli wrote:@ WaveOK so we've identified 3 possible bus votes. Marv, myself, and Prome. You apparently don't believe that I'm scum, so what about the other two? What are your reads on Marv and Prome? Is there anything about their voting that's sketchy, or are they just possible bus candidates? Secondly... Show nested quote +Conclusions: I believe one scum to be on the sandroba wagon---either marv/hapa OR Prome, and one more on Foolishness (or is Toad). Why can the scum not be on Prome's wagon? Why is it more likely that there's 1 scum on the sandroba wagon than 0?
I have to go back and look at more on marv/Prome in detail when I get a chance.
Scum (aside from sandroba) can be on Prome's wagon, I corrected the post.
As for why it is more likely to be 1 scum on sandroba than 0...call it an educated guess. Scum are pretty damn paranoid about where their votes end up and what better place for a vote to be?
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Hey kita, I think your Mafia Combinatorics thing might be useful here.
For example, VE and Foo just can't be scum together.
I believe Prome and kita can't be scum together either (BOTH kita and sandro being on him and kita doing nothing, specially not jumping on the sandro wagon (when he already has a vote on another scumbuddy) doesn't make sense).
We could cross other possible scumteams out, and maybe get somewhere.
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On January 23 2014 09:45 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2014 09:38 Hapahauli wrote:@ WaveOK so we've identified 3 possible bus votes. Marv, myself, and Prome. You apparently don't believe that I'm scum, so what about the other two? What are your reads on Marv and Prome? Is there anything about their voting that's sketchy, or are they just possible bus candidates? Secondly... Conclusions: I believe one scum to be on the sandroba wagon---either marv/hapa OR Prome, and one more on Foolishness (or is Toad). Why can the scum not be on Prome's wagon? Why is it more likely that there's 1 scum on the sandroba wagon than 0? I have to go back and look at more on marv/Prome in detail when I get a chance.
Do that.
Scum (aside from sandroba) can be on Prome's wagon, I corrected the post.
mmmkay.
As for why it is more likely to be 1 scum on sandroba than 0...call it an educated guess. Scum are pretty damn paranoid about where their votes end up and what better place for a vote to be?
Do you think scum have the time to be paranoid in a 5 minute vote swing?
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On January 23 2014 09:45 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2014 09:35 WaveofShadow wrote:
The conclusion should read read one more scum on Foolishness OR Prome. I firmly believe(d) VE to be town and I know my own alignment but I'm setting it up for you guys. Please go see your nearest doctor (You were also really scummy on me, in part, because I was townie on foolish, and now you...it seems believe us both to be town? Or likely town. I'm more biased about that read, but lynching scum doesn't make all our other reads right  )
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On January 23 2014 09:48 gonzaw wrote:
Hey kita, I think your Mafia Combinatorics thing might be useful here.
For example, VE and Foo just can't be scum together.
I believe Prome and kita can't be scum together either (BOTH kita and sandro being on him and kita doing nothing, specially not jumping on the sandro wagon (when he already has a vote on another scumbuddy) doesn't make sense).
We could cross other possible scumteams out, and maybe get somewhere.
I could get in on this. Why can't VE/Foolishness be scum? Purely interaction-based?
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On January 23 2014 09:49 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2014 09:45 WaveofShadow wrote:On January 23 2014 09:38 Hapahauli wrote:@ WaveOK so we've identified 3 possible bus votes. Marv, myself, and Prome. You apparently don't believe that I'm scum, so what about the other two? What are your reads on Marv and Prome? Is there anything about their voting that's sketchy, or are they just possible bus candidates? Secondly... Conclusions: I believe one scum to be on the sandroba wagon---either marv/hapa OR Prome, and one more on Foolishness (or is Toad). Why can the scum not be on Prome's wagon? Why is it more likely that there's 1 scum on the sandroba wagon than 0? I have to go back and look at more on marv/Prome in detail when I get a chance. Do that. mmmkay. Show nested quote +As for why it is more likely to be 1 scum on sandroba than 0...call it an educated guess. Scum are pretty damn paranoid about where their votes end up and what better place for a vote to be? Do you think scum have the time to be paranoid in a 5 minute vote swing?
If they're around, yes.
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We also have to consider the possibility of Holy/Toad being scum. If that's the case, then there would only be 1 more scum at deadline besides sandro, and that changes things (for instance, that scum alone can't do anything and he can't plan anything, etc).
I'm kind of gearing towards H/T being town. Specially with Holy's last vote. It seemed genuine (that a host would tell him to vote). Even more, it would be a good opportunity to vote Prome, or Foo, or some other guy right? But he obviously wasted it on me. If he's scum, seems like a waste opportunity.
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On January 23 2014 09:51 gonzaw wrote:
We also have to consider the possibility of Holy/Toad being scum. If that's the case, then there would only be 1 more scum at deadline besides sandro, and that changes things (for instance, that scum alone can't do anything and he can't plan anything, etc).
I'm kind of gearing towards H/T being town. Specially with Holy's last vote. It seemed genuine (that a host would tell him to vote). Even more, it would be a good opportunity to vote Prome, or Foo, or some other guy right? But he obviously wasted it on me. If he's scum, seems like a waste opportunity.
Ehhhhh....I see what you mean but then he also sets up his replacement to look like absolute shit in the opposite case. I imagine if he was scum a host would still tell him to vote, and I know I certainly wouldn't lie as either alignment.
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On January 23 2014 09:50 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2014 09:45 gonzaw wrote:On January 23 2014 09:35 WaveofShadow wrote:
The conclusion should read read one more scum on Foolishness OR Prome. I firmly believe(d) VE to be town and I know my own alignment but I'm setting it up for you guys. Please go see your nearest doctor (You were also really scummy on me, in part, because I was townie on foolish, and now you...it seems believe us both to be town? Or likely town. I'm more biased about that read, but lynching scum doesn't make all our other reads right )
Well, I may need to see a doctor too.
On January 23 2014 09:50 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2014 09:48 gonzaw wrote:
Hey kita, I think your Mafia Combinatorics thing might be useful here.
For example, VE and Foo just can't be scum together.
I believe Prome and kita can't be scum together either (BOTH kita and sandro being on him and kita doing nothing, specially not jumping on the sandro wagon (when he already has a vote on another scumbuddy) doesn't make sense).
We could cross other possible scumteams out, and maybe get somewhere. I could get in on this. Why can't VE/Foolishness be scum? Purely interaction-based?
VE was semi-active in the thread at deadline, but didn't give a shit about Foo at that point. I'd think with their scumbuddy getting lynched on D1 with 4 votes at the time, he would. Instead, he asks some questions to Prome and promptly disappears. At that point Foo and Prome had 4 votes each....yeah seems unlikely he'd be so casual about it.
Also, before that, VE brought up sandro, Holy and Foo, yet parked his vote on Foolishness. First he did so on Holy, then "sheeped" me when I asked people to vote Foolishness. However, later I vote Holy instead and yet he keeps his vote on Foo. This would be the perfect opportunity to either: sheep me again into Holy, or straight up unvoting Foo and maybe vote Prome who he apparently had a scumread on. Doesn't make sense to keep a totally unnecessary vote on his scumbuddy who is leading the lynch (Foo had like 3 votes at that point I believe or something, or just 2 I think).
Also, VE had reasons to vote Prome (he was his "read"), and he even talked about Holy. Makes little sense for him to choose scumbuddy Foo out of those 3.
Some of this may be WIFOM, but overall I think it just doesn't make sense for VE and Foo to be scum together
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Do we really need to waste our time with associations? That's just empty filler that scum can talk about at length. There's a lot of information from the Day 1 lynch, and I'd like to see some non-confirmed townies begin to post and process it.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On January 23 2014 09:48 gonzaw wrote:
Hey kita, I think your Mafia Combinatorics thing might be useful here.
For example, VE and Foo just can't be scum together.
I believe Prome and kita can't be scum together either (BOTH kita and sandro being on him and kita doing nothing, specially not jumping on the sandro wagon (when he already has a vote on another scumbuddy) doesn't make sense).
We could cross other possible scumteams out, and maybe get somewhere.
I knew I'd find a believer!
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Kita, who are the last two scum?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Doubt I'll be rereading tonight. Ask me tomorrow.
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On January 23 2014 10:51 kitaman27 wrote:
Doubt I'll be rereading tonight. Ask me tomorrow.
Tomorrow?
So, Sunderland won against Man United. Peñarol lost. Nacional won. We lynched scum on D1. I ate some fabulous pizza tonight.
Life's good, man, life's good.
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Anyways, I just remembered how scum Grey/iGrok tended to post in MTG Mini Mafia 2, where they started making "sense" and shit like in D3 or something, but were scummy/lurking/not making sense in early days (and then of course I almost fuck things up by lynching everybody but them).
Then I look at Foo this game, and see some similarities in play and evolution of the play.
I guess I won't completely rule Foo out. He was almost lynched yesterday anyways, let's see what pressure he gets now.
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Okay, last thing before I go to sleep
+ Show Spoiler +On January 23 2014 09:32 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2014 09:22 Hapahauli wrote:On January 23 2014 09:19 WaveofShadow wrote:On January 23 2014 09:13 Hapahauli wrote:
But Wave, rather than speculate on whether a bus could have occurred, which votes do you think are possible bus votes? Surely we have the time to look into this now. Of course. I'm not in anyway stating that is for sure what happened, but I'm not crossing it off my list or considering it unlikely. I've seen way too much retarded bussing, and just because of the supposed calibre of player in this game I refuse to discount it. Now considering the lynch happened with only 5 people and gonzaw is all but confirmed town that only leaves the other 4. The 'hammer' happened too quickly for me to put much thought into it. The scenario I could see here is an indignant scumteam member looking at sandro's 'contributions' this game, realizing where it was going once the push began and jumping on for supercred (supercred, considering how most people it seems will be viewing this lynch, ie all 5 voters being likely town considering circumstances), especially since snadro didn't seem to do much to change things after he popped in, spewed some crap and left. The other scenario is sandro giving 'permission' to bus once he himself realized where it was going once gonzaw started up. In terms of likelihood I can't honestly be certain if one scenario seems more likely than another here, as there are many people in this game I have never seen play scum and so marv's saying 'only bad TL scum do this' doesn't mean much. No no, this is still all speculation. We need to talk about votes. Which specific votes in particular look like possible bus votes? Which look like town votes? You can talk all you want about the scumteam, but it's pointless unless you determine which votes are the ones in question. Alright. Gonzaw is clean, likely austin as well because there isn't even any time in between those votes to discuss anything if austin were scum, and it really would be a horrible thing to do to your team if he were considering where the therad was at that time. Right around then, (page 42) Foolishness can be seen to be basically defending sandro. Again question becomes, is this scum blatantly defending a buddy here, or town pushing his own idea of what's good? Impossible to tell. Moving on, marv and hapa votes. There was enough time in between where gonzaw did his thing and the 3rd/4th votes popped on that either of my earlier scenarios could have taken place, especially if 2/3rds of the scumteam are around. Pure voting analysis with my 'speculation' in mind does not eliminate either of those two, however it does likely preclude them BOTH being scum because the only way that happens is if sandroba told them both to bus him immediately. Plausible, not likely (since it eliminates the lone 'indignant scum member' case). If that did in fact happen, we may very well be in trouble, but given the thread's (and my) townread on Hapa I don't think it's the case. Prome obviously cannot be eliminated either, and may in fact be most likely considering all that went down, and his considerable decline in posting quality right around the deadline. Conclusions: I believe one scum to be on the sandroba wagon---either marv/hapa OR Prome, and one more on Foolishness (or is Toad). I believe there can be only one way for that kind of coordination between the scum to happen, and that is if the WHOLE scumteam was on IRC at the same time paying very close attention to what is going on in the thread. I remember doing something like that in previous games. I think it was Themed Mafia (with marvy scumbuddy) we did something like that? The point is, either scum did that, or they did nothing (no communication at all). If you, as scum, are not on IRC, in 5 or so minutes you can't fully communicate via QT strategies and the like, you just can't (or even less, the time between the 1st 2 votes, and marv's, Hapa's and Prome's votes). So either all scum were on it almost the instant me and austin voted sandro, or none of them communicated at all. If none of them communicated at all, then I just have to say all of those are town. I don't think scum would take that chance (specially if BOTH Foo and Prome are town), without knowing what his buddies think etc. The only one I could see doing this is marv I guess. If scum did communicate instantly via IRC, then it could happen. They get instant feedback and strategy talk about what to do, most likely in some sort of panic, and then maybe Prome, marv or Hapa (as scum) sheep the sandro vote. Still, I think it may be too unlikely. Remember, it was still 4 votes to Foo and 2 to sandro at that point. If I was scum, I'd most likely say "Ehmm, let's just wait, Foo is still getting lynched" and not risk it. I'd even feign being afk or something for example.
I also kind of changed my mind about Holy/Toad (again). I'm getting some clear stuff about the game in my mind, but I'd prefer to take it slowly from here on out.
I won't be here on D2 likely so it's not like me getting all jiggly even matters.
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Anyone around? Things are so quiet =(
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On January 23 2014 09:04 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2014 08:42 gonzaw wrote:
The only thing I'm kind of scared is if actually Prome is mafia with sandro and this was some weird gambit, in which they planned on actually getting Foolishness lynched instead.
I mean, you do remember Prome's "We policy lynch lurkers no matter what!" line at the beginning of the game, and he then not doing anything at all regarding sandro right?
Oh god....oh god oh man oh god oh man :O O:
...lol. But other than that, I think we are on good tracks I don't think that's actually possible. Look at the order of events. Starting at this point where there are 6 votes on me and 3 on Promethelax (keep in mind this is 12 minutes before the deadline): http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=41#820The six votes on me are (in order of when they occurred): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow, Promethelax, marvellosity, Hapahauli. Now there is definitely some analysis to be done on how these votes accumulated on me but I will save that for later. At this point gonzaw started the switch on sandroba. Austin immediately joined in. Now only gonzaw was voting on me so I'm still winning by a landslide. It's possible that they did this thinking there is no way a bandwagon on sandroba would start, but I highly doubt they would have that attitude. That is, entertain the thought for a second that gonzaw/Austin are actually mafia. They could just hammer the vote on me to ensure a town lynch (incredibly easy for gonzaw to do, Austin could just toss his vote on Promethelax or somewhere else). But that didn't happen. Then marvellosity switches his vote as well. At this point I have 4 votes and Promethelax and sandroba both have 3. Hapa and Promethelax also follow shortly after. It's definitely clear that the switch to sandroba was started and enforced by towns. This was not mafia bussing each other. The big question to answer here is: what reason would mafia have for switching off of me onto sandroba? If I'm town, there's definitely no reason to. I'm hovering around 50% of votes (HolyFlare's vote isn't going to count), it'd be so easy to just ensure that I got voted. The only scenario where the mafia would have reason to switch is if I'm also mafia (which isn't true). But that scenario, however absurd, would be reasonable, thinking that I'm more valuable to the mafia than sandroba is at this point. Thus I am in the belief that the votes on sandroba were mostly, if not 100%, town. Including my top suspect Promethelax. This seems to make a lot more sense given how that went down. What does this all mean? Mafia could have ensured I was lynched if they were on the vote switch, so why bother vote switching in the first place? No, mafia did not vote switch. What's more likely is that the mafia were voting for me but not on the switch (VE, WoS) or the mafia were all voting for Promethelax (me, sandroba, kitaman). Note that kitaman was going against sandroba during day 1. Remember that assuming Promethelax is town, mafia were in a great position at the end of the day. Town Foolishness has 6 votes and the runner up at 3 votes is also town. This is great for them cause they get to decide who's getting lynched. If I'm mafia why is there not more votes on Promethelax and where is my team to defend me? Sure I got kitaman pushing for Promethelax but I was in a desperate situation there. Things wouldn't have unfolded the way they did if that was the case. So instead this means that mafia were likely already voting for me. But they wouldn't want to go with the vote switch since that was on a mafia. VE is the only person that fits this bill since he was strangely absent during lynch time (and he posted 15 minutes after the lynch). WoS would be gone but I did feel his vote on me was questionable (will look into that later don't worry). Mafia were voting for me and were sitting comfortably, and when a vote switch happened they weren't around for it.
I really really like this post . I'm hammered as shit though so I'm not sure how good my reading skills are. So drunk my fiancé is puking in the shower. Everything is awful.
Like foolishness, though.thinking right.
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The analysis is nice, but it requires you to assume that Foolishness is town... which I can't get behind 100% yet.
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But he is thinking like town.
Lynch VE I think. No interest in lunch.
Also: maybe WoS? He thinks I could be s um with what in my mind was hammer vote.
I think you'll agree that me+fool =/= scum pair so if I was scum I could have left my vote on fool and lynchedvhim overs and.
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EPT
