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On January 29 2014 00:03 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2014 23:57 austinmcc wrote:On January 28 2014 23:54 kitaman27 wrote:On January 28 2014 23:52 austinmcc wrote:
prome, what was the conspiracy theory you wanted to chat about? Any reason why you don't have a post this cycle? Not a good one. I've been reading, but not posting. so why reply to my post from 18 hours ago now? magic words
On January 29 2014 00:04 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2014 00:01 austinmcc wrote:On January 28 2014 23:57 Promethelax wrote:On January 28 2014 23:52 austinmcc wrote:
prome, what was the conspiracy theory you wanted to chat about? If fool and Sand are scum together who and why is the third scum and how does he work to look good from day one? This will lead into the theory. Play along. If fool and sand are scum together and you're me and you throw out Toad as possible mafia, then the likeliest scum candidate is kita. Which you know, because you just read my filter. In that scenario, I don't think he has to work to make himself look good. He's got to look BETTER than other lynch alternatives, but it's LIKELY that in a sand/fool/+1 team, the +1 is the guy you're setting up for endgame. Foolishness almost got lynched on D1, has had relatively consistent pressure/votes/suspicion on him throughout the game, so I think all the +1 has to do is look better than the non-foolishness lynch candidates. I don't think he tries and distances or buddies Foolishness, because he doesn't really need to. He just has to not sink to the bottom of the questionable group, can lynch Foolishness if need be, and hope to ride things out til late-ish. what if I'm not you and don't throw out toad?
this post says "who would be the most likely +1 if you were someone else AND you didn't have the reads you do." So either you're trying to discern my alignment here or you're asking questions that feel like questions I sometimes ask, upon whose answers you should not try to build any kind of good association.
The behavior wouldn't change, imo, regardless of who the +1 is.
The likely +1 would probably still be kita. In a HF/fool/sand world, HF doesn't even try to help foolishness as he goes afk? Toad comes in and posts about the time right before the lynch without quite understanding the timing and what happened, without his mafia buddies letting him know how sand got lynched? I would not put Toad > Kita on that list even if I considered him.
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You are not conspiracy theorizing enough here. Try harder.
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whose is absolutely not the right word there and the second sentence in the first paragraph is poorly constructed.
I love to ask "yeah but what would you do if things were different", but I think (and hopefully it's true) that I do that to poke at the person I'm asking, not to get a different answer which I can then run with. If you want to poke at me, that's cool, but if you have a thing in mind, and you want me to agree with it, and my initial answer did not, then you should just go ahead and state your theory because I'm playing as me and not as not me with not my reads.
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I need the insight into you and some help from my favourite conspiracy nut in determining whether my insanity is reasonable.
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On January 29 2014 00:20 Promethelax wrote:
I need the insight into you and some help from my favourite conspiracy nut in determining whether my insanity is reasonable. To the extent you're looking for non-kita there, I'd disagree.
I thought your conspiracy was headed somewhere else when you first asked it.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 24 2014 07:36 austinmcc wrote:
I need to reconsider Kita, but I haven't gotten anything very scummy off him.
On January 24 2014 08:06 austinmcc wrote:
(4) Chat with Kitaman, and get others to talk ABOUT kitaman. A couple posts have mentioned him looking a little worse from the sandro flip (i think?). He has posted some. But overall, just half-following and reading through thread, I don't have a strong sense of him doing stuff recently. That could be entirely wrong, but he's too under the radar for my liking, and I think his alignment and his filter make a good topic of discussion for today. Either we start pressuring him, or he's town and he gets active and gives some good posts, it's a win win to talk about kita more.
On January 26 2014 05:35 austinmcc wrote:
Kita is entirely off my radar in a bad way, I have not chatted with him today like I wanted to, and when I think of his filter this game, nothing particularly good or bad springs to mind.
Is there a reason that you've put so little effort into interacting with me?
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On January 29 2014 00:25 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2014 00:20 Promethelax wrote:
I need the insight into you and some help from my favourite conspiracy nut in determining whether my insanity is reasonable. To the extent you're looking for non-kita there, I'd disagree. I thought your conspiracy was headed somewhere else when you first asked it.
where was that?
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Or, would disagree with where your theory heads, tell you that it's probably unreasonable in a bad way, and that my insight is the same as it was on N1 regarding who sand/Foolish/+1 would consist of.
On January 29 2014 00:25 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2014 07:36 austinmcc wrote:
I need to reconsider Kita, but I haven't gotten anything very scummy off him. Show nested quote +On January 24 2014 08:06 austinmcc wrote:
(4) Chat with Kitaman, and get others to talk ABOUT kitaman. A couple posts have mentioned him looking a little worse from the sandro flip (i think?). He has posted some. But overall, just half-following and reading through thread, I don't have a strong sense of him doing stuff recently. That could be entirely wrong, but he's too under the radar for my liking, and I think his alignment and his filter make a good topic of discussion for today. Either we start pressuring him, or he's town and he gets active and gives some good posts, it's a win win to talk about kita more. Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 05:35 austinmcc wrote:
Kita is entirely off my radar in a bad way, I have not chatted with him today like I wanted to, and when I think of his filter this game, nothing particularly good or bad springs to mind. Is there a reason that you've put so little effort into interacting with me? You've kind of been in that middle list. I've been watching for a falloff from you, like in ... whatever game we played with a you/marv/someone(s) else scumteam and you were super active the first few hours and then gone most of the rest of the day and I didn't catch it.
I haven't seen it, so I haven't been super worried about you. Given that you've been...consistently just beneath my radar(?), rather than bouncing around in activity/interest/wherever-my-read-on-you-happens-to-be, I've not felt particularly scummy on you. If that's a reason, there's my reason. If not, then no, no real reason.
To make up for that a little - Foolishness's case touches me in a happy place. My vote right now comes down between Foolishness or Prome, depending on some more reading of Foolishness and whatever else. I know that I didn't pull specific examples of people saying "WoS is town because of activity" and not because of specific content, but Prome is one of the folks who used activity - WoS' activity makes him Unlynchable for me. Today. He had an awful post about him and VE both being scum that sounded like it came from a scum with VE perspective but the rest of his stuff has been decent and simply involved. If he is scum he isn't the one we will lynch today. Townier than he was at the beginning of the day though his terrible attitude towards me/sand d1 and towards VE d2 are worrisome he is near the bottom of my lynch list. Prome doesn't like WoS's D1, doesn't like his attitude towards VE, and then weighs what seem to be activity and "rest of his stuff being decent" vs those things he doesn't like to come out with WoS near the bottom of his lynch list.
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You sure you've been reading this cycle? I spelled out my reasons for not finding WoS scummy earlier.
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Oh wait. The make up for a it a little bit thing was "here is how I feel, generically." It was to be followed by "How do you feel about Foolishness's case on prome?"
I know you've been of mixed opinion on Foolishness this cycle, with a lean towards scummy for most of the start. But does it touch you in a happy place as well?
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On January 29 2014 00:38 Promethelax wrote:
You sure you've been reading this cycle? I spelled out my reasons for not finding WoS scummy earlier. Show me.
You were coming into D2 with toad/WoS/VE as your options.
On January 24 2014 06:17 Promethelax wrote:
Oh I generally like and agree with the analysis, I agree with Austin being the one on the lynch I'm not confident in (I mentioned this drunk last night, not sure if that was clear, Marv is less town than others for the lynch as well).
I agree that scum is probably within the non sand voters as the way that lynch went down was classic last minute town shennanies.
I hadn't thought about Austin being unwilling to switch due to all scum voting the same and I actually found that to be interesting and rather useful as an insight. In all that was a strong post which I found myself agreeing with and mostly found it made you townier.
If I was to lynch three players right now it would be WoS toad and VE. There is at least one if not two scum on that list. Holy did say something in the early game which looked really townie to me, can't think of what it was though, but besides that one moment he has seemed scummy as hell and his slot simply isn't helping anything. On January 24 2014 06:19 Promethelax wrote:
Does anyone disagree with next lynch being between those three players? If so who should it be between and why? I have a decent reason for everyone else to be town those three not so much.
+ Show Spoiler [HEY THIS IS ALSO JUST KINDA NEAT TO NO…] +On January 24 2014 07:49 Promethelax wrote:
Just, okay, if Fool is scum and Sand is scum who is the third scum? He would have to have been pushing my lynch head over heels (or be HF) since the only other options were scum lynches.
There wasn't a player going ass to the wall crazy to get me lynched besides VE and if he was scum watching the scum lynch on foolish fall apart would he really afk and just hope the lynch shifts to me?
You don't touch WoS at all until that post I quote above, that WoS's activity makes him unlynchable for you.
You say nothing else about your thoughts on WoS during D2.
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On January 28 2014 08:10 Promethelax wrote:Filter page count Toad: 5 Fool: 5 Marv: 13 Austin: 9 Kita: 10 Me: 5 WoS: 14 Based on this I'd say at least one of Fool/Toad is scum. It is a rough measuring stick but since I have reason to town read the four players with double the post count of myself and the above players it isn't a bad reason to start there. I know that some scum make sure to have at least as many posts as the bottom tier townie and since there are three of us with 5 posts everyone can see that at least one townie has that post count. Since I have my own role pm I can eliminate me from the proceedings. This chart shall dictate the order I read filters in 1. Toad 2. Fool 3. Kita 4. + Show Spoiler [WoS] +Again by sheer dint of effort I find it very unlikely that WoS is scum. He said some things about VE which were so out of left field dumb (as scum) that he has to be town. + Show Spoiler +His comments that at most only one of them was scum are telling, when he, as scum, knows VE will flip town those bet hedging posts are awful. He wasn't sure enough of a town VE for him to be scum. He hedged his bets to save face, to be able to say "well, I had my doubts" if VE flipped. Not to gain towncred from his correct read In my head WoS is cleared. I may not bother to read his filter but instead interact with him
I didn't say anything else on day two. His activity was enough reason not to lynch him that day.
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On January 29 2014 00:30 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2014 00:25 austinmcc wrote:On January 29 2014 00:20 Promethelax wrote:
I need the insight into you and some help from my favourite conspiracy nut in determining whether my insanity is reasonable. To the extent you're looking for non-kita there, I'd disagree. I thought your conspiracy was headed somewhere else when you first asked it. where was that? Towards marv being a sneaky snake, and a possible marv/foolishness team. I thought I was being asked cuz I've been making paranoid comments about marv, not in my capacity as a generic conspiracy theory aficionado.
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On January 29 2014 00:50 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2014 00:30 Promethelax wrote:On January 29 2014 00:25 austinmcc wrote:On January 29 2014 00:20 Promethelax wrote:
I need the insight into you and some help from my favourite conspiracy nut in determining whether my insanity is reasonable. To the extent you're looking for non-kita there, I'd disagree. I thought your conspiracy was headed somewhere else when you first asked it. where was that? Towards marv being a sneaky snake, and a possible marv/foolishness team. I thought I was being asked cuz I've been making paranoid comments about marv, not in my capacity as a generic conspiracy theory aficionado.
Interesting. Talk to me about why a scum marv pushes Sand/Fool d1 over me when he could have orchestrated a me lynch. Obviously this assumes I'm town. Assume it for a moment.
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On January 29 2014 00:50 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2014 08:10 Promethelax wrote:Filter page count Toad: 5 Fool: 5 Marv: 13 Austin: 9 Kita: 10 Me: 5 WoS: 14 Based on this I'd say at least one of Fool/Toad is scum. It is a rough measuring stick but since I have reason to town read the four players with double the post count of myself and the above players it isn't a bad reason to start there. I know that some scum make sure to have at least as many posts as the bottom tier townie and since there are three of us with 5 posts everyone can see that at least one townie has that post count. Since I have my own role pm I can eliminate me from the proceedings. This chart shall dictate the order I read filters in 1. Toad 2. Fool 3. Kita 4. + Show Spoiler [WoS] +Again by sheer dint of effort I find it very unlikely that WoS is scum. He said some things about VE which were so out of left field dumb (as scum) that he has to be town. + Show Spoiler +His comments that at most only one of them was scum are telling, when he, as scum, knows VE will flip town those bet hedging posts are awful. He wasn't sure enough of a town VE for him to be scum. He hedged his bets to save face, to be able to say "well, I had my doubts" if VE flipped. Not to gain towncred from his correct read In my head WoS is cleared. I may not bother to read his filter but instead interact with him I didn't say anything else on day two. His activity was enough reason not to lynch him that day. Okay. But in reading my filter to make a case on me/unmake a case on me, you should have noticed this series of posts.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 27 2014 07:25 austinmcc wrote:gg VE Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 11:58 WaveofShadow wrote:On January 26 2014 06:29 Toadesstern wrote:
hey VE, if you're still there, do what WoS asked you to do.
Start quoting what got you angry. I don't care what it is, start doing so. This and one of Toad's posts earlier struck me as buddying considering I was nigh unlynchable at that point, but I am going to leave that thought behind and move forward, because more than anything he was right. On January 26 2014 06:35 austinmcc wrote:Yes. On January 26 2014 05:39 WaveofShadow wrote:On January 26 2014 05:35 austinmcc wrote:
Mostly afk while cooking delicious foods. Still considering. I don't think I'm straying from VE and Foolishness today. Don't want to vote Toad right now, so if I strayed it would be possible WoS (weird townread on VE, some posts with a small quantity of meat (same applies to Foolishness), and he also +1ed Foolishness's "sandroba active now so he's probably townie" statement).
Kita is entirely off my radar in a bad way, I have not chatted with him today like I wanted to, and when I think of his filter this game, nothing particularly good or bad springs to mind. He's also still the probably candidate for a Foolishness partner, i THINK. Can you show me that? On January 23 2014 04:41 WaveofShadow wrote:
And for the record I probably am probably scummier on inactive Foolishness than inactive sandroba. Could be bias because I have precedent in PYP for sandroba in terms of an early game lurk then blasting onto the scene, but as was mentioend before (I forget by who atm?) sandroba was actively engaging the thread when he was around, whereas Foolishness basically hasn't talked to anyone, he just threw stuff and fucked off multiple times.
It's not about saying one scummier than other. It's about saying "like someone else said, sandroba was actively engaging the thread when he was around." I was the guy he was talking to. I got a couple posts from him, all of them not quite about what I was asking, and then he dipped. Not so much a +1 as I LOVE THIS, but a +1 like..."someone brought this up and it carries weight with my read." At this point, On January 26 2014 06:07 Toadesstern wrote:On January 26 2014 06:03 gonzaw wrote:
So Toad, you are happy with any of VE or Foo getting lynched today then?
I'd really like your thoughts on VE I haven't looked into VE yet and like I said, I want to see how he changes tomorrow. But VE makes sense given the situation we're in assuming my read on Foo is right. I'd much rather lynch Foo before lynching into VE because of nothing but "because he'd make sense together with Foo" if Foo hasn't even flipped yet... I haven't looked into VE yet is NOT AN OPTION/EXCUSE/WHATEVER. If you want VE alive tomorrow, you gotta do something about it. If you don't care, you're fine not to read him. But not looking into one of two main lynch candidates because you want to read his posts tomorrow is smelly. Why do you care if he changes tomorrow if you haven't looked into his D1/N1/D2? How are you going to know if ANYTHING changes? What sort of change are you looking for if you have no basis/read to work from? So austin, does that mean I am your primary target now that VE is gone? I'm honestly shocked at how you have me so high up on your scum list after our talk last night. On January 26 2014 06:51 austinmcc wrote:On January 26 2014 06:45 gonzaw wrote:
Okay, can someone tell me why Wave isn't town based on his activity so far?
Need I remind you he has the 2nd largest filter (after me)? And 10 pages of it happened this D2?
You guys think he can still be scum based on that?
Maybe he wants to prove a point as scum, that you should never surrender and keep going on? Or something?
Like I really want to know.
At the very least I want to know how he's a better lynch than Toad, or VE, etc
This goes...for everybody basically (Foo, Toad and austin) A lot of his filter is his GIANT posts. The size doesn't necessarily equate to content though. His giant giant posts are VE is town, Prome is scum. But his reasons for VE being town are kinda murky, and he spends boatloads and boatloads of time on all these little things that make Prome scum, despite Prome being pretty much off the table (it would seem for WoS as well? I have not seen him pushing Prome lately). So while there's a lot, a bunch of it is stuff that nobody really believes, and it picks up after we lynch a mafia. You can say he's responding to pressure by posting a bunch, either side can do that (I know not all mafia do, but I know I've gone post-crazy as mafia, and we don't have a good example of WoS's scumplay so it's unknown). Maybe it's knowing that town lynched mafia D1 and WoS/buddy need to kick things into gear and take control. Add in Hapa and others finding his D1 scummy. Whatever his D2 is, his D1 still exists. Also just minor nitpicky stuff. Putting some credence in the argument that sandroba was around and active. You're 100% right that the giant posts don't necessarily equate to good content. The point wasn't for them to necessarily be solid airtight cases, they were to showcase thought process. I would have hoped I've gotten that across by now but apparently not because there are still a LOT of doubters. As for Prome I mentioned I wanted Foolishness and Toad lynched before Prome so there was no point in pushing him the rest of the day as he wasn't getting lynched. It's in my filter somewhere. Does all of that stuff you've talked about really overshadow my effort and contributions for the past day enough to put me as the number 1 scum suspect going into day 3? There isn't a whole lot more I'm going to be able to do than what I've done already, so if no amount of effort is going to prove anything to you, then I would posit that you're not properly considering the most simple case scenario, which is that I am town, I am not concerned with what people read in my filter (hence the massive amount of posting) and I am putting forth the utmost effort to win this game. you are considering only the mafia options and what's unfortunate is you're not even the worst offender in that regard. 'Whatever his D2 is, his D1 still exists.' My D2 was DAMN good, and you know that. Leave the bias at the door and help me lynch scum. Don't believe you're my primary target. I think Foolishness's post on you is legit, but you don't jump that high. If your calling VE town was a bit stranger, or I didn't know you guys have played a bunch together, then you might get top billing. Effort = townie only goes so far with me. We don't have ANY comparison of recent scum play for you. I know that, personally, I can get REALLY active as scum. I know I'm not the only person EVER to do this. Especially when my team is in a terrible spot (last guy alive in PTP Demon's Run, late game in Chrono Trigger, etc.), a bunch of posting is easy because you post or you die. I think people are making too much of your activity, and should judge you on your actual contributions and not post count or post length, because they have pretty much no idea how you would normally play scum. I think you're ... going way too far with this. "Whatever his D2 is, his D1 still exists" is an ENTIRELY valid statement, it's true, and people shouldn't scumhunt day by day and forget anything old. I assume that you agree with this, yes?
Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 23:21 WaveofShadow wrote:
He said his weekend activity suffers; I don't have huge reason to question that since his activity in this game WAS better during the week.
Alright so if there was one (or for bonus derp points, two) scum on sandroba, which would be the most likely and why? marv gave his answer, which is good as far as answers-from-marv go, but at least for me personally, marv is a much better answer than I am to this question. He's more than happy to kill off scumbuddies when he thinks he needs to, a marv of EITHER alignment is not really expecting scum sandroba to be of much value to the scum team (and so scum marv would be OKAY with killing him off, cuz if Sandroba had an AFK N1/D2, he was very likely to be lynched D2). On January 27 2014 07:29 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2014 07:28 gonzaw wrote:
austin, you think WoS had no contributions on D2? I mean, I think when we all said "he put lots of effort" we meant "he put lots of meaningful effort". I think he had some good contributions. I think he has a lot of filler-y contributions. I think that everyone is happy to say "active/contribute-y" and nobody yet has really dug into what % of posts falls into which category. Heck, SOME of the posts swapping reads on WoS weren't "he had a lot of good contributions," but were instead specifically billed as "he's putting in too much effort to be mafia." On January 27 2014 07:44 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2014 07:42 marvellosity wrote:
austin, question for you: do you think Fool's certainty on Wave is warranted? No, I can't go that far. Especially with foolishness also being iffy on alignment at this point, but even if we knew he was town, I'd be less certain than Foolishness and unsure how foolishness can be so certain. I just have a love affair with the unpopular opinion, and so the one guy going "no, there are some legitimate reasons WoS could be/is scum" appeals to me, whereas, even if Gonzaw isn't, there HAVE been posts that purely equate WoS's filter length/effort with townieness. On January 27 2014 07:54 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2014 07:50 marvellosity wrote:On January 27 2014 07:44 austinmcc wrote:On January 27 2014 07:42 marvellosity wrote:
austin, question for you: do you think Fool's certainty on Wave is warranted? No, I can't go that far. Especially with foolishness also being iffy on alignment at this point, but even if we knew he was town, I'd be less certain than Foolishness and unsure how foolishness can be so certain. I just have a love affair with the unpopular opinion, and so the one guy going "no, there are some legitimate reasons WoS could be/is scum" appeals to me, whereas, even if Gonzaw isn't, there HAVE been posts that purely equate WoS's filter length/effort with townieness. it's a lazy way of saying something. gonzaw gave reasons well enough. You could say "he has a massive filter and that is townie purely for effort". Or you can extrapolate a little and say "he has a massive filter and on balance his posting within this have left me feeling pretty good" or "he has a massive filter and his posts feel townie and i can't see him pushing an agenda" Also in a vacuum, 95% of people who post that much in a phase/cycle are town. Now I pulled that figure right out my ass, but you get the idea. Oddly it's actually one of my weaknesses. rayn in ## was one of the few times i lynched a really active mafia, because in general i tend to find filter length a massive town indicator, and early in games I tend to go for quieter, lurkier scumplayers, and later in games i tend not to be alive. It's a lazy way of saying something, but given the choice of "effort = townieness" and "these contributory posts = townieness", the first is not just lazy but is ALSO the more likely thing to come from mafia that were happy with where WoS was going into N1/D2 and then unhappy when he started getting super post happy and reads started changing. I know either alignment can say it, it's shorthand. But if you want to hand-wave a scummy lean on WoS away, you can just say "MINNY POSTS GG TOWNWAVE," and when a couple people do that, maybe scum is in there.Besides, it's lazy of ME to just say "no, some people just said # of posts = townie" and not actually go find those posts. I don't have any non-lazy ground to stand on.
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On January 29 2014 00:54 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2014 00:50 austinmcc wrote:On January 29 2014 00:30 Promethelax wrote:On January 29 2014 00:25 austinmcc wrote:On January 29 2014 00:20 Promethelax wrote:
I need the insight into you and some help from my favourite conspiracy nut in determining whether my insanity is reasonable. To the extent you're looking for non-kita there, I'd disagree. I thought your conspiracy was headed somewhere else when you first asked it. where was that? Towards marv being a sneaky snake, and a possible marv/foolishness team. I thought I was being asked cuz I've been making paranoid comments about marv, not in my capacity as a generic conspiracy theory aficionado. Interesting. Talk to me about why a scum marv pushes Sand/Fool d1 over me when he could have orchestrated a me lynch. Obviously this assumes I'm town. Assume it for a moment. He pushes sand npnp because sand is going to get got on D2 or D3 when he continues to play scumsand. That fits both with his statements about when/why he pushes scumbuddies, and with past experience --> he'll push people who look bad or are going to die.
marv pushing foolishness does NOT fit that team, imo. Which is why I was curious. To some extent, the change to sandroba ameliorates that, but not much. I don't think scummarv attacks scum foolishness with the sandroba stuff on D1.
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On January 29 2014 00:55 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2014 00:50 Promethelax wrote:On January 28 2014 08:10 Promethelax wrote:Filter page count Toad: 5 Fool: 5 Marv: 13 Austin: 9 Kita: 10 Me: 5 WoS: 14 Based on this I'd say at least one of Fool/Toad is scum. It is a rough measuring stick but since I have reason to town read the four players with double the post count of myself and the above players it isn't a bad reason to start there. I know that some scum make sure to have at least as many posts as the bottom tier townie and since there are three of us with 5 posts everyone can see that at least one townie has that post count. Since I have my own role pm I can eliminate me from the proceedings. This chart shall dictate the order I read filters in 1. Toad 2. Fool 3. Kita 4. + Show Spoiler [WoS] +Again by sheer dint of effort I find it very unlikely that WoS is scum. He said some things about VE which were so out of left field dumb (as scum) that he has to be town. + Show Spoiler +His comments that at most only one of them was scum are telling, when he, as scum, knows VE will flip town those bet hedging posts are awful. He wasn't sure enough of a town VE for him to be scum. He hedged his bets to save face, to be able to say "well, I had my doubts" if VE flipped. Not to gain towncred from his correct read In my head WoS is cleared. I may not bother to read his filter but instead interact with him I didn't say anything else on day two. His activity was enough reason not to lynch him that day. Okay. But in reading my filter to make a case on me/unmake a case on me, you should have noticed this series of posts. + Show Spoiler +On January 27 2014 07:25 austinmcc wrote:gg VE Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 11:58 WaveofShadow wrote:On January 26 2014 06:29 Toadesstern wrote:
hey VE, if you're still there, do what WoS asked you to do.
Start quoting what got you angry. I don't care what it is, start doing so. This and one of Toad's posts earlier struck me as buddying considering I was nigh unlynchable at that point, but I am going to leave that thought behind and move forward, because more than anything he was right. On January 26 2014 06:35 austinmcc wrote:Yes. On January 26 2014 05:39 WaveofShadow wrote:On January 26 2014 05:35 austinmcc wrote:
Mostly afk while cooking delicious foods. Still considering. I don't think I'm straying from VE and Foolishness today. Don't want to vote Toad right now, so if I strayed it would be possible WoS (weird townread on VE, some posts with a small quantity of meat (same applies to Foolishness), and he also +1ed Foolishness's "sandroba active now so he's probably townie" statement).
Kita is entirely off my radar in a bad way, I have not chatted with him today like I wanted to, and when I think of his filter this game, nothing particularly good or bad springs to mind. He's also still the probably candidate for a Foolishness partner, i THINK. Can you show me that? On January 23 2014 04:41 WaveofShadow wrote:
And for the record I probably am probably scummier on inactive Foolishness than inactive sandroba. Could be bias because I have precedent in PYP for sandroba in terms of an early game lurk then blasting onto the scene, but as was mentioend before (I forget by who atm?) sandroba was actively engaging the thread when he was around, whereas Foolishness basically hasn't talked to anyone, he just threw stuff and fucked off multiple times.
It's not about saying one scummier than other. It's about saying "like someone else said, sandroba was actively engaging the thread when he was around." I was the guy he was talking to. I got a couple posts from him, all of them not quite about what I was asking, and then he dipped. Not so much a +1 as I LOVE THIS, but a +1 like..."someone brought this up and it carries weight with my read." At this point, On January 26 2014 06:07 Toadesstern wrote:On January 26 2014 06:03 gonzaw wrote:
So Toad, you are happy with any of VE or Foo getting lynched today then?
I'd really like your thoughts on VE I haven't looked into VE yet and like I said, I want to see how he changes tomorrow. But VE makes sense given the situation we're in assuming my read on Foo is right. I'd much rather lynch Foo before lynching into VE because of nothing but "because he'd make sense together with Foo" if Foo hasn't even flipped yet... I haven't looked into VE yet is NOT AN OPTION/EXCUSE/WHATEVER. If you want VE alive tomorrow, you gotta do something about it. If you don't care, you're fine not to read him. But not looking into one of two main lynch candidates because you want to read his posts tomorrow is smelly. Why do you care if he changes tomorrow if you haven't looked into his D1/N1/D2? How are you going to know if ANYTHING changes? What sort of change are you looking for if you have no basis/read to work from? So austin, does that mean I am your primary target now that VE is gone? I'm honestly shocked at how you have me so high up on your scum list after our talk last night. On January 26 2014 06:51 austinmcc wrote:On January 26 2014 06:45 gonzaw wrote:
Okay, can someone tell me why Wave isn't town based on his activity so far?
Need I remind you he has the 2nd largest filter (after me)? And 10 pages of it happened this D2?
You guys think he can still be scum based on that?
Maybe he wants to prove a point as scum, that you should never surrender and keep going on? Or something?
Like I really want to know.
At the very least I want to know how he's a better lynch than Toad, or VE, etc
This goes...for everybody basically (Foo, Toad and austin) A lot of his filter is his GIANT posts. The size doesn't necessarily equate to content though. His giant giant posts are VE is town, Prome is scum. But his reasons for VE being town are kinda murky, and he spends boatloads and boatloads of time on all these little things that make Prome scum, despite Prome being pretty much off the table (it would seem for WoS as well? I have not seen him pushing Prome lately). So while there's a lot, a bunch of it is stuff that nobody really believes, and it picks up after we lynch a mafia. You can say he's responding to pressure by posting a bunch, either side can do that (I know not all mafia do, but I know I've gone post-crazy as mafia, and we don't have a good example of WoS's scumplay so it's unknown). Maybe it's knowing that town lynched mafia D1 and WoS/buddy need to kick things into gear and take control. Add in Hapa and others finding his D1 scummy. Whatever his D2 is, his D1 still exists. Also just minor nitpicky stuff. Putting some credence in the argument that sandroba was around and active. You're 100% right that the giant posts don't necessarily equate to good content. The point wasn't for them to necessarily be solid airtight cases, they were to showcase thought process. I would have hoped I've gotten that across by now but apparently not because there are still a LOT of doubters. As for Prome I mentioned I wanted Foolishness and Toad lynched before Prome so there was no point in pushing him the rest of the day as he wasn't getting lynched. It's in my filter somewhere. Does all of that stuff you've talked about really overshadow my effort and contributions for the past day enough to put me as the number 1 scum suspect going into day 3? There isn't a whole lot more I'm going to be able to do than what I've done already, so if no amount of effort is going to prove anything to you, then I would posit that you're not properly considering the most simple case scenario, which is that I am town, I am not concerned with what people read in my filter (hence the massive amount of posting) and I am putting forth the utmost effort to win this game. you are considering only the mafia options and what's unfortunate is you're not even the worst offender in that regard. 'Whatever his D2 is, his D1 still exists.' My D2 was DAMN good, and you know that. Leave the bias at the door and help me lynch scum. Don't believe you're my primary target. I think Foolishness's post on you is legit, but you don't jump that high. If your calling VE town was a bit stranger, or I didn't know you guys have played a bunch together, then you might get top billing. Effort = townie only goes so far with me. We don't have ANY comparison of recent scum play for you. I know that, personally, I can get REALLY active as scum. I know I'm not the only person EVER to do this. Especially when my team is in a terrible spot (last guy alive in PTP Demon's Run, late game in Chrono Trigger, etc.), a bunch of posting is easy because you post or you die. I think people are making too much of your activity, and should judge you on your actual contributions and not post count or post length, because they have pretty much no idea how you would normally play scum. I think you're ... going way too far with this. "Whatever his D2 is, his D1 still exists" is an ENTIRELY valid statement, it's true, and people shouldn't scumhunt day by day and forget anything old. I assume that you agree with this, yes?
Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 23:21 WaveofShadow wrote:
He said his weekend activity suffers; I don't have huge reason to question that since his activity in this game WAS better during the week.
Alright so if there was one (or for bonus derp points, two) scum on sandroba, which would be the most likely and why? marv gave his answer, which is good as far as answers-from-marv go, but at least for me personally, marv is a much better answer than I am to this question. He's more than happy to kill off scumbuddies when he thinks he needs to, a marv of EITHER alignment is not really expecting scum sandroba to be of much value to the scum team (and so scum marv would be OKAY with killing him off, cuz if Sandroba had an AFK N1/D2, he was very likely to be lynched D2). On January 27 2014 07:29 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2014 07:28 gonzaw wrote:
austin, you think WoS had no contributions on D2? I mean, I think when we all said "he put lots of effort" we meant "he put lots of meaningful effort". I think he had some good contributions. I think he has a lot of filler-y contributions. I think that everyone is happy to say "active/contribute-y" and nobody yet has really dug into what % of posts falls into which category. Heck, SOME of the posts swapping reads on WoS weren't "he had a lot of good contributions," but were instead specifically billed as "he's putting in too much effort to be mafia." On January 27 2014 07:44 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2014 07:42 marvellosity wrote:
austin, question for you: do you think Fool's certainty on Wave is warranted? No, I can't go that far. Especially with foolishness also being iffy on alignment at this point, but even if we knew he was town, I'd be less certain than Foolishness and unsure how foolishness can be so certain. I just have a love affair with the unpopular opinion, and so the one guy going "no, there are some legitimate reasons WoS could be/is scum" appeals to me, whereas, even if Gonzaw isn't, there HAVE been posts that purely equate WoS's filter length/effort with townieness. On January 27 2014 07:54 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2014 07:50 marvellosity wrote:On January 27 2014 07:44 austinmcc wrote:On January 27 2014 07:42 marvellosity wrote:
austin, question for you: do you think Fool's certainty on Wave is warranted? No, I can't go that far. Especially with foolishness also being iffy on alignment at this point, but even if we knew he was town, I'd be less certain than Foolishness and unsure how foolishness can be so certain. I just have a love affair with the unpopular opinion, and so the one guy going "no, there are some legitimate reasons WoS could be/is scum" appeals to me, whereas, even if Gonzaw isn't, there HAVE been posts that purely equate WoS's filter length/effort with townieness. it's a lazy way of saying something. gonzaw gave reasons well enough. You could say "he has a massive filter and that is townie purely for effort". Or you can extrapolate a little and say "he has a massive filter and on balance his posting within this have left me feeling pretty good" or "he has a massive filter and his posts feel townie and i can't see him pushing an agenda" Also in a vacuum, 95% of people who post that much in a phase/cycle are town. Now I pulled that figure right out my ass, but you get the idea. Oddly it's actually one of my weaknesses. rayn in ## was one of the few times i lynched a really active mafia, because in general i tend to find filter length a massive town indicator, and early in games I tend to go for quieter, lurkier scumplayers, and later in games i tend not to be alive. It's a lazy way of saying something, but given the choice of "effort = townieness" and "these contributory posts = townieness", the first is not just lazy but is ALSO the more likely thing to come from mafia that were happy with where WoS was going into N1/D2 and then unhappy when he started getting super post happy and reads started changing. I know either alignment can say it, it's shorthand. But if you want to hand-wave a scummy lean on WoS away, you can just say "MINNY POSTS GG TOWNWAVE," and when a couple people do that, maybe scum is in there.Besides, it's lazy of ME to just say "no, some people just said # of posts = townie" and not actually go find those posts. I don't have any non-lazy ground to stand on.
yes and? Would you argue that the player with the most posts in the game is the best lynch when compared to the guy who did some scummy shit d1 and followed it up by doing scummy shit d2? WoS/Ve were pretty interchangeable from d1 in my eyes but d2 WoS went balls to the wall efforting it up while VE went balls to the floor sad sacking around. So WoS became unlynchable that day. I do not in any way see your problem with him not being a lynch option that day.
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On January 29 2014 01:07 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2014 00:55 austinmcc wrote:On January 29 2014 00:50 Promethelax wrote:On January 28 2014 08:10 Promethelax wrote:Filter page count Toad: 5 Fool: 5 Marv: 13 Austin: 9 Kita: 10 Me: 5 WoS: 14 Based on this I'd say at least one of Fool/Toad is scum. It is a rough measuring stick but since I have reason to town read the four players with double the post count of myself and the above players it isn't a bad reason to start there. I know that some scum make sure to have at least as many posts as the bottom tier townie and since there are three of us with 5 posts everyone can see that at least one townie has that post count. Since I have my own role pm I can eliminate me from the proceedings. This chart shall dictate the order I read filters in 1. Toad 2. Fool 3. Kita 4. + Show Spoiler [WoS] +Again by sheer dint of effort I find it very unlikely that WoS is scum. He said some things about VE which were so out of left field dumb (as scum) that he has to be town. + Show Spoiler +His comments that at most only one of them was scum are telling, when he, as scum, knows VE will flip town those bet hedging posts are awful. He wasn't sure enough of a town VE for him to be scum. He hedged his bets to save face, to be able to say "well, I had my doubts" if VE flipped. Not to gain towncred from his correct read In my head WoS is cleared. I may not bother to read his filter but instead interact with him I didn't say anything else on day two. His activity was enough reason not to lynch him that day. Okay. But in reading my filter to make a case on me/unmake a case on me, you should have noticed this series of posts. + Show Spoiler +On January 27 2014 07:25 austinmcc wrote:gg VE Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 11:58 WaveofShadow wrote:On January 26 2014 06:29 Toadesstern wrote:
hey VE, if you're still there, do what WoS asked you to do.
Start quoting what got you angry. I don't care what it is, start doing so. This and one of Toad's posts earlier struck me as buddying considering I was nigh unlynchable at that point, but I am going to leave that thought behind and move forward, because more than anything he was right. On January 26 2014 06:35 austinmcc wrote:Yes. On January 26 2014 05:39 WaveofShadow wrote:On January 26 2014 05:35 austinmcc wrote:
Mostly afk while cooking delicious foods. Still considering. I don't think I'm straying from VE and Foolishness today. Don't want to vote Toad right now, so if I strayed it would be possible WoS (weird townread on VE, some posts with a small quantity of meat (same applies to Foolishness), and he also +1ed Foolishness's "sandroba active now so he's probably townie" statement).
Kita is entirely off my radar in a bad way, I have not chatted with him today like I wanted to, and when I think of his filter this game, nothing particularly good or bad springs to mind. He's also still the probably candidate for a Foolishness partner, i THINK. Can you show me that? On January 23 2014 04:41 WaveofShadow wrote:
And for the record I probably am probably scummier on inactive Foolishness than inactive sandroba. Could be bias because I have precedent in PYP for sandroba in terms of an early game lurk then blasting onto the scene, but as was mentioend before (I forget by who atm?) sandroba was actively engaging the thread when he was around, whereas Foolishness basically hasn't talked to anyone, he just threw stuff and fucked off multiple times.
It's not about saying one scummier than other. It's about saying "like someone else said, sandroba was actively engaging the thread when he was around." I was the guy he was talking to. I got a couple posts from him, all of them not quite about what I was asking, and then he dipped. Not so much a +1 as I LOVE THIS, but a +1 like..."someone brought this up and it carries weight with my read." At this point, On January 26 2014 06:07 Toadesstern wrote:On January 26 2014 06:03 gonzaw wrote:
So Toad, you are happy with any of VE or Foo getting lynched today then?
I'd really like your thoughts on VE I haven't looked into VE yet and like I said, I want to see how he changes tomorrow. But VE makes sense given the situation we're in assuming my read on Foo is right. I'd much rather lynch Foo before lynching into VE because of nothing but "because he'd make sense together with Foo" if Foo hasn't even flipped yet... I haven't looked into VE yet is NOT AN OPTION/EXCUSE/WHATEVER. If you want VE alive tomorrow, you gotta do something about it. If you don't care, you're fine not to read him. But not looking into one of two main lynch candidates because you want to read his posts tomorrow is smelly. Why do you care if he changes tomorrow if you haven't looked into his D1/N1/D2? How are you going to know if ANYTHING changes? What sort of change are you looking for if you have no basis/read to work from? So austin, does that mean I am your primary target now that VE is gone? I'm honestly shocked at how you have me so high up on your scum list after our talk last night. On January 26 2014 06:51 austinmcc wrote:On January 26 2014 06:45 gonzaw wrote:
Okay, can someone tell me why Wave isn't town based on his activity so far?
Need I remind you he has the 2nd largest filter (after me)? And 10 pages of it happened this D2?
You guys think he can still be scum based on that?
Maybe he wants to prove a point as scum, that you should never surrender and keep going on? Or something?
Like I really want to know.
At the very least I want to know how he's a better lynch than Toad, or VE, etc
This goes...for everybody basically (Foo, Toad and austin) A lot of his filter is his GIANT posts. The size doesn't necessarily equate to content though. His giant giant posts are VE is town, Prome is scum. But his reasons for VE being town are kinda murky, and he spends boatloads and boatloads of time on all these little things that make Prome scum, despite Prome being pretty much off the table (it would seem for WoS as well? I have not seen him pushing Prome lately). So while there's a lot, a bunch of it is stuff that nobody really believes, and it picks up after we lynch a mafia. You can say he's responding to pressure by posting a bunch, either side can do that (I know not all mafia do, but I know I've gone post-crazy as mafia, and we don't have a good example of WoS's scumplay so it's unknown). Maybe it's knowing that town lynched mafia D1 and WoS/buddy need to kick things into gear and take control. Add in Hapa and others finding his D1 scummy. Whatever his D2 is, his D1 still exists. Also just minor nitpicky stuff. Putting some credence in the argument that sandroba was around and active. You're 100% right that the giant posts don't necessarily equate to good content. The point wasn't for them to necessarily be solid airtight cases, they were to showcase thought process. I would have hoped I've gotten that across by now but apparently not because there are still a LOT of doubters. As for Prome I mentioned I wanted Foolishness and Toad lynched before Prome so there was no point in pushing him the rest of the day as he wasn't getting lynched. It's in my filter somewhere. Does all of that stuff you've talked about really overshadow my effort and contributions for the past day enough to put me as the number 1 scum suspect going into day 3? There isn't a whole lot more I'm going to be able to do than what I've done already, so if no amount of effort is going to prove anything to you, then I would posit that you're not properly considering the most simple case scenario, which is that I am town, I am not concerned with what people read in my filter (hence the massive amount of posting) and I am putting forth the utmost effort to win this game. you are considering only the mafia options and what's unfortunate is you're not even the worst offender in that regard. 'Whatever his D2 is, his D1 still exists.' My D2 was DAMN good, and you know that. Leave the bias at the door and help me lynch scum. Don't believe you're my primary target. I think Foolishness's post on you is legit, but you don't jump that high. If your calling VE town was a bit stranger, or I didn't know you guys have played a bunch together, then you might get top billing. Effort = townie only goes so far with me. We don't have ANY comparison of recent scum play for you. I know that, personally, I can get REALLY active as scum. I know I'm not the only person EVER to do this. Especially when my team is in a terrible spot (last guy alive in PTP Demon's Run, late game in Chrono Trigger, etc.), a bunch of posting is easy because you post or you die. I think people are making too much of your activity, and should judge you on your actual contributions and not post count or post length, because they have pretty much no idea how you would normally play scum. I think you're ... going way too far with this. "Whatever his D2 is, his D1 still exists" is an ENTIRELY valid statement, it's true, and people shouldn't scumhunt day by day and forget anything old. I assume that you agree with this, yes?
Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 23:21 WaveofShadow wrote:
He said his weekend activity suffers; I don't have huge reason to question that since his activity in this game WAS better during the week.
Alright so if there was one (or for bonus derp points, two) scum on sandroba, which would be the most likely and why? marv gave his answer, which is good as far as answers-from-marv go, but at least for me personally, marv is a much better answer than I am to this question. He's more than happy to kill off scumbuddies when he thinks he needs to, a marv of EITHER alignment is not really expecting scum sandroba to be of much value to the scum team (and so scum marv would be OKAY with killing him off, cuz if Sandroba had an AFK N1/D2, he was very likely to be lynched D2). On January 27 2014 07:29 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2014 07:28 gonzaw wrote:
austin, you think WoS had no contributions on D2? I mean, I think when we all said "he put lots of effort" we meant "he put lots of meaningful effort". I think he had some good contributions. I think he has a lot of filler-y contributions. I think that everyone is happy to say "active/contribute-y" and nobody yet has really dug into what % of posts falls into which category. Heck, SOME of the posts swapping reads on WoS weren't "he had a lot of good contributions," but were instead specifically billed as "he's putting in too much effort to be mafia." On January 27 2014 07:44 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2014 07:42 marvellosity wrote:
austin, question for you: do you think Fool's certainty on Wave is warranted? No, I can't go that far. Especially with foolishness also being iffy on alignment at this point, but even if we knew he was town, I'd be less certain than Foolishness and unsure how foolishness can be so certain. I just have a love affair with the unpopular opinion, and so the one guy going "no, there are some legitimate reasons WoS could be/is scum" appeals to me, whereas, even if Gonzaw isn't, there HAVE been posts that purely equate WoS's filter length/effort with townieness. On January 27 2014 07:54 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2014 07:50 marvellosity wrote:On January 27 2014 07:44 austinmcc wrote:On January 27 2014 07:42 marvellosity wrote:
austin, question for you: do you think Fool's certainty on Wave is warranted? No, I can't go that far. Especially with foolishness also being iffy on alignment at this point, but even if we knew he was town, I'd be less certain than Foolishness and unsure how foolishness can be so certain. I just have a love affair with the unpopular opinion, and so the one guy going "no, there are some legitimate reasons WoS could be/is scum" appeals to me, whereas, even if Gonzaw isn't, there HAVE been posts that purely equate WoS's filter length/effort with townieness. it's a lazy way of saying something. gonzaw gave reasons well enough. You could say "he has a massive filter and that is townie purely for effort". Or you can extrapolate a little and say "he has a massive filter and on balance his posting within this have left me feeling pretty good" or "he has a massive filter and his posts feel townie and i can't see him pushing an agenda" Also in a vacuum, 95% of people who post that much in a phase/cycle are town. Now I pulled that figure right out my ass, but you get the idea. Oddly it's actually one of my weaknesses. rayn in ## was one of the few times i lynched a really active mafia, because in general i tend to find filter length a massive town indicator, and early in games I tend to go for quieter, lurkier scumplayers, and later in games i tend not to be alive. It's a lazy way of saying something, but given the choice of "effort = townieness" and "these contributory posts = townieness", the first is not just lazy but is ALSO the more likely thing to come from mafia that were happy with where WoS was going into N1/D2 and then unhappy when he started getting super post happy and reads started changing. I know either alignment can say it, it's shorthand. But if you want to hand-wave a scummy lean on WoS away, you can just say "MINNY POSTS GG TOWNWAVE," and when a couple people do that, maybe scum is in there.Besides, it's lazy of ME to just say "no, some people just said # of posts = townie" and not actually go find those posts. I don't have any non-lazy ground to stand on. yes and? Would you argue that the player with the most posts in the game is the best lynch when compared to the guy who did some scummy shit d1 and followed it up by doing scummy shit d2? WoS/Ve were pretty interchangeable from d1 in my eyes but d2 WoS went balls to the wall efforting it up while VE went balls to the floor sad sacking around. So WoS became unlynchable that day. I do not in any way see your problem with him not being a lynch option that day. Zees eez not ze point.
It's a lazy way of saying something, but given the choice of "effort = townieness" and "these contributory posts = townieness", the first is not just lazy but is ALSO the more likely thing to come from mafia that were happy with where WoS was going into N1/D2 and then unhappy when he started getting super post happy and reads started changing.
I know either alignment can say it, it's shorthand. But if you want to hand-wave a scummy lean on WoS away, you can just say "MINNY POSTS GG TOWNWAVE," and when a couple people do that, maybe scum is in there.
This is fine:- WoS is scummy
- ______________
- I don't want to vote WoS today
But there are multiple ways to fill in that blank. Actually looking at his posts/conclusions and agreeing with them, or pointing out specific contributions you think were particularly sexy, are TOWNIE blank-fill-ins for me. Your mind changed because of these things that the guy posted.
Filling in the blank with "MINNY POSTS" is NOT TOWNIE to me. You're taking the really lazy way out of just purely saying activity = townieness, swapping your read because of activity alone, and never really referencing content or anything.
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okay, shall we dance the hypothetical dance?
Two players Q and W have done essentially the same thing d1. They played in an objectivly scummy way and failed to vote for scum lynch while hard pushing a townie mislynch.
On d2 Q keeps playing sloppily, hardly posts and mostly gets mad when you try to talk to him. W posts a lot and seems to be trying to figure things out although he does have some posts which suggest that if Q is scum W is also scum.
Which player do you try to lynch Q or W?
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In fact, the ONLY specific thing(s) you mention about WoS's posts and activity are NOT townie
WoS' activity makes him Unlynchable for me. Today. He had an awful post about him and VE both being scum that sounded like it came from a scum with VE perspective but the rest of his stuff has been decent and simply involved. If he is scum he isn't the one we will lynch today. Townier than he was at the beginning of the day though his terrible attitude towards me/sand d1 and towards VE d2 are worrisome he is near the bottom of my lynch list. You found his post about WoS/VE both being mafia to be "awful". That's the only specific thing mentioned.
The next-closest you get to anything specific is that you disliked his attitude on D1 towards prome/sand, and you are worried about his VE read.
None of which is good. The sole redeeming factors are "activity" and "the rest of his stuff has been decent and simply involved." Your specific thoughts on WoS are scummy, but your generic thoughts on his activity are townie. That feels in mah belly like it's the wrong way around.
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