EPT[I] [S] Shadow Mini Mafia - Page 10
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On January 28 2014 09:03 Promethelax wrote: Toad and the question of Meta. I've played three games with Toad which I can remember. Two scum and one town. Toad, scum, Chronotrigger Toad, town, Yet Another... Toad/marv hydra, scum, MTG I Check one thing. The use of rhetorical questions which do not move forward the discussion. They are present in two of the above games and missing in the third. They are likewise missing in this game. Based on this meta read I find Toad town. Likewise I have only ever seen him post a Venn Diagram once, as town, and he is too self-conscious to do so as scum. Meta conclusion: town. I think the meta case is pretty weak here. You can throw out the hydra game because it's a hydra game. After that you're left with a 1 game meta comparison for each alignment. Taking a look at the two games you did highlight, I don't actually pick up on the point you're making. On January 28 2014 09:03 Promethelax wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 24 2014 07:37 Toadesstern wrote: and when I say that I mean he didn't post after 7:40 at all, which is 20 minutes prior to deadline. I don't think he goes afk 20 minutes prior to deadline if he gets in here and posts at 7:40 so I assume he was there not posting. The lack of posts in that timeframe is something I consider to be really odd and I do see a mafiareasoning behind it. Mafia doesn't want to pile on Sand when Sand was still at 0 or 1 posts at all, why should they. At the same time they don't want to later on either and at the same time mafia certainly doesn't want to defend him either. Sounds like a nice way to get out of that dilemma, just that like I said he happened to have posted just a sec before it happened... Actually now that I think about it, I'd actually put VE even more on the scummy side This post is great (though wrong) I like the way Toad's read evolves as the post goes on. It is indicative of a townie mindset and I rather like the thought in it. Again, wrong, but who cares. I was wrong too. Yet at the same time, Toad seems to fail to apply this point to me. I was on sandroba with no posts on multiple occasions and left the lynch at a later time, although I suppose it's not even clear that toad think's I'm mafia. On January 28 2014 09:03 Promethelax wrote: I know marv had issues with this post but c'mon. It is silly for a townie to not have read his predecessor. It is suicidal for a scummer to not have read his predecessor. A scum will have read teh scum qt and, therefore, some form of the thoughts of the man he is replacing and lying unnecessarily is chump play as scum. Toad is no chump. This post screams town. I'm actually more concerned that marv can't see it than I am about anything Toad has written. I don't find this all that telling about his alignment. I don't think it's a scum tell and I don't think it's a town tell. On January 26 2014 08:15 Toadesstern wrote: This is a thing I've only seen from a town Toad. And it makes sense as a townie thing, it helps to organize your thoughts as to who is suspicious and why. And, as Toad says, he has faced some resistance to it in the past. It has not helped to push lynches and, is therefore unhelpful to a mafia Toad. I'll give him town points for this for looking at the big picture of things, though he hasn't really attempted to argue that I'm mafia based on this conclusion. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On January 28 2014 09:15 marvellosity wrote: kita, how do you feel about this line of thinking at this stage of the game? I can't imagine his game plan is to essentially not post and think he's going to look good coming out of it. However, I've waited and waited and waited for him to provide an updated analysis of Wave, but at this point, his case is still based off the actions of night one. At this point, I'm not going to be satisfied with one big large case about how he has solved the game because it's too little too late, unless he brings up points that I have honestly not considered that are so compelling that they have to make sense. He must know that he is on the chopping block, but it's hard to say how much time he has. The reason I'm willing to say he is mafia is that the time he does have, he is using it to perform a Prom town analysis, which shows he has no understanding for what the town is looking for out of him. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
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kitaman27
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kitaman27
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On January 28 2014 09:54 WaveofShadow wrote: Kita can you show me the evolution of Toad's read on Foolish? I'm not actually sure what I'm looking at in the Prome casen I could swear that refers to VE Ya, I'm already working on a post. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On January 24 2014 06:26 Toadesstern wrote: From the people that seem to be worth looking into I really don't see foolishness being mafia. On January 24 2014 07:18 Toadesstern wrote: I agree with foolish's big post and think it's even more unlikely for him to be mafia now. On January 24 2014 08:22 Toadesstern wrote: I don't really see a conundrum on Foolishness to be honest. I'd rather lynch into one of you five guys than Foolish atm. I really do not think he'd behave the way he did before deadline if he knew Sandro was mafia so either he played withough knowing his alignment or he's just town. On January 24 2014 08:45 Toadesstern wrote: do you see a reason for Foolish to post the way he did when he should have known that Sand is mafia, assuming Foolish is mafia as well? Because I don't see one. Why should he defend Sand despite having him as mafia read earlier like when talking to marv over here: On January 24 2014 09:44 Toadesstern wrote: all I wanted to get across is that I don't see a foolishness-riddle or however gonzaw called it and there's no way I'm going to consider him with other people around right now and that he shouldn't be in the same category as WoS / VE / Kita right now. On January 25 2014 01:14 Toadesstern wrote: I'd actually like to take that back. No idea what I was thinking yesterday... Had the whole voteswitch happening over a longer time period in my head and after rereading some of the posts Foolish did I just don't think they're that alignment indicative as it seemed on first look. Like when he mentioned that if he's mafia he has no plan to win because he's limiting the lynch candidates. Same thing can be said about Kita and myself and VE certainly doesn't look like he's having any kind of longterm plan whatsoever either. The exception here's WoS as he still holds firmly on this prom lynch he wants to get, only ever so slightly hinting at maybe being willing to lynch Foolishness a little more but not actually doing so. checking out his filter atm, you'll get something from me in a while. On January 25 2014 04:24 Toadesstern wrote: I did ignore it in general as I was seeing the same thing from foolishness about Sandro and it was so extreme that I just thought it has to be an exaggeration until austin pointed out that is indeed weird. He has been on Sandro for a while, called him mafia and suddendly started calling the lynch bad and wasn't willing to vote him. On January 25 2014 04:36 Toadesstern wrote: the thing is, if foolishness is mafia that explains why he didn't vote Sandro despite being a very shady explanation. If Sandro and Foolish are mafia together Foolish has nothing to lose, it's either him or Sandro to get lynched, might as well just do nothing and hope that in the confusion of voteswitches Prome (assuming he's town) gets into a more favoreable position to be lynched. On January 25 2014 07:45 Toadesstern wrote: I think it makes him look bad to just drop it out of nowhere, without any kind of explanation and to do an almost 180. Just like I said when I answered it from the Sandroba point of view and if what you pointed out in your bigger post is true it's literally the same thing. Want me to repeat it? That's the reason I'm in his filter right now. He did mention BOTH Holy (aka me) and Sandro early, really early and he has been going on about it + Show Spoiler [example] + On January 23 2014 06:59 Foolishness wrote: Yes Yes As I said, my posts always accomplish something (besides the one I posted before this cause you guys frustrate me to no end). You want to run wild theories that's fine by me, but I'm pretty sure you find less mafia than I do. Yes, HolyFlare lynch is good. I find that post to be the prime example of this to be honest. So he thinks Sandro is mafia and very clearly states so, but doesn't vote him, he thinks marv is mafia, he thinks Holy is mafia and I guess he was on prome around that time already? That just doesn't make sense to me and yeah like you said he completly and utterly dropped both Holy and Sandro later on like nothing happened. On January 26 2014 01:34 Toadesstern wrote: there's literally no way for what foolish just said there to be possible. I'm bussing WoS / WoS is bussing me and whoever skates through lylo himself? You've got to be kidding me. And Gonzaw before you even start rambling, no this isn't LI all over again. Like I said to top it off the entire post + Show Spoiler + On January 25 2014 09:35 Foolishness wrote: This is from a while ago, but his posts I saw when I made that post were: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=20#381 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=21#408 And I thought these were fine at the time. A lot of you seem to think that I'm doing things 12 hours after they happened when in reality it's been a lot closer. I saw sandroba and austin both come to the thread and start posting, and I didn't post long after that (a few hours at most). As I said, my mindset was, "well they've been kinda afk so far, but as long as they keep posting I don't have an overwhelming reason to suspect them". Look at my list where I put austin and sandroba in the same category; this is exactly why. Gonzaw kinda brought this up here but let's go through these scenarios cause it's important. Scenario 1 Foolishness is mafia Promethelax is mafia Yes, after seeing that my case on WoS during day 1 didn't have as much merit as I thought at the time, I immediately decided to bus my own teammate. Not only that but I was also under scrutiny in the thread, why would I bring attention to another mafia member when I can push a case on someone else (HolyFlare? Marv maybe?). Better for me to just keep pushing on WoS or pick a new target, no sense is putting two mafia members under scrutiny on day 1. Speaking of HolyFlare, this is off topic from my current explanation but when I went back later on and reread his posts I thought he might be town. I don't even remember why but that's what I thought. I don't like reading into people getting replaced out so I focused my attention elsewhere. If HolyFlare is town I expect Toad to be able to prove it to us sooner and not later. And by sooner I mean end of night 2 at the absolute latest. Secnario 2 Foolishness is Mafia Promethelax is town This is the only scenario out of the three that the town should be worried about as I didn't want to switch to sandroba and even said so straight up (the reason I didn't want to was because I saw Marv move his vote and I was really sketchy about him at the time. I didn't like what I was seeing last minute and I got super scared it was just town derp switching onto another town). But as I pointed out in my earlier posts what is the mafia doing the entirety of day 1 when I'm accumulating votes? As gonzaw pointed out this would only make sense if the entire mafia team (but myself) is afk (so like, HolyFlare also mafia). Furthermore, if I'm mafia and Promethelax is town, then wtf is up with sandroba's vote 30 minutes before the deadline? His post wasn't a mafia post trying to save his buddy, that was a mafia pushing what he perceived to be a safe lynch to make his team look pretty for the future days after I flip town or Promethelax flips town. I think it is even more apparent through the entirety of day 1 as a whole. Where is my mafia team to save me? Are they just afk (we all know mafia games on TL are never that easy)? The only one trying to deflect votes off of me was me. Sure, kitaman and austin both said I was town, but there was never a hard push. It seemed like their attitude was, "yeah Foolishness is town I'm sure, but I got nothing better to propose". Kitaman's push on Promethelax was mediocre at best (in terms of aggressiveness, not content). I was 100% on my own for all of day 1. Scenario 3 Foolishness is Town Promethelax is mafia Why the hell did sandroba push onto Promethelax when he could have easily just been like, "yo guys I've caught Foolishness as mafia in three separate games on day 1/2, this is a free town lynch"? Doesn't make sense. Secnario 4 Foolishness is Town Promethelax is Town I brought this up before, but go back and read sandroba's case on Promethelax. After sandroba's vote both Promethelax and I had 3 votes apiece (if I'm not mistaken here). Mafia were very very very happy with the votes at this time. Town Foolishness is under scrutiny and about to get lynched, and second in line is another town who Foolishness (apparently well-known scumhunter) is 100% convinced is mafia. Wow find me a happier mafia team on day 1 in a normal or all-vanilla game. Sandroba was not throwing his vote down to save someone or push for any lynch. Mafia were happy with who was getting lynched that day and there was no need to do anything about it. THIS NEXT PARAGRAPH IS VERY IMPORTANT Look at this from sandroba's point of view in this scenario. The only people with votes are two townies. He drops his vote on Promethelax with the following mindset. "Let's say Foolishness gets lynched. Sweet, I just push on Promethelax the following day and tell the town, 'yeah guys you fucked that up, Foolishness is best scum-hunter NA we gotta lynch Promethelax now'. Let's say Promethelax gets lynched. Sweet, I just admit my mistake and push Foolishness the following day and tell the town, 'yeah damn sorry about that read, this guy Foolishness is definitely mafia and 100% misled the town into a bad lynch. Many people said that lynch was bad from the beginning we should never have listened to Foolishness'". No matter who got lynched sandroba was in a great position, that is until he himself got lynched instead. Sandroba's vote was not a push to get the town to do something. No, it was lazily cast knowing that both suspects were town and he could ride it through the next day. THIS SHOWS THAT PROMETHELAX IS TOWN Look at all four above scenarios. Scenario 3 makes the least amount of sense cause then sandroba's vote is an awful mistake. Scenario 1 doesn't make sense cause that means I bussed my own teammate (when I could have easily gone after WoS from the start or anyone else) and oh btw also means Promethelax bussed sandroba last minute (keep in mind him and Hapa voted 1 minute apart so in essence they both hammered that vote). The remaining two scenarios both have Promethelax as town. Because he is. Regardless of what you think of me as well, though the above and my earlier posts should prove my innocence as well. If you guys wanna spend 9 hours going down the conspiracy theory hole then cool story bro. Or you can just look at the facts and deduce the following: Town wins if WaveOfShadow, VisceraEyes, Kitaman, and Toad all die. Also my time is very limited today and tomorrow but I will try to be here when I can. What the fuck is that. On January 26 2014 01:48 Toadesstern wrote: ##unvote ##vote Foolishness In general, I find that mafia players prefer to stick to a single target, push the lynch on them until they flip, and then move onto the next target. It's possible for them to change their opinion on a player, but usually it's sudden or out of the blue. If you read through the posts I've pulled regarding Toad's views on Foolishness, he starts off with a strong town read on him, seems to admit that he has had flaws in his analysis, slowly brings Fool into consideration, and then finally comes around to a mafia read. It seems like a natural flow of events, rather than something carefully planned out. However, if Toad actually is town, then I fear we're in trouble because there is someone that I'm overlooking. What do you guys think. Does this seem like a town mindframe or do you think he is shifting his views to fit his agenda? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
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kitaman27
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kitaman27
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On January 28 2014 10:21 WaveofShadow wrote: Still reading. Foolishness for the love of crap, will you please stick around so that people can talk to you? ^ Would definitely like to hear non-prepared thoughts if you're willing to stick around and interact with the thread. Firstly, why was your day 2 push on Wave so terrible? You were going at it without evaluating the majority of his posts, yet was willing to say that you were 95% confident on your read. Did something change in Wave's play during the last 48 hours or were you so confident based on your original argument that you didn't want to reconsider. I'm more interested in how your thoughts changed in regards to Wave, rather than the "there must be 2 scum in this list of 5" idea. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On January 28 2014 10:54 marvellosity wrote: Patience is in limited supply as is my ability to stay awake much longer when i must go to bed Regardless of his read on you, what do you think about his thoughts on Prom? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Combinitorics may still live! | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Game solved. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On January 28 2014 23:42 marvellosity wrote: Lol. O.o Are you actually cancelling your whole case on that small bit of wifom? Is the rest of the case valid to the point where you like it more than the case against toad? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On January 28 2014 23:52 austinmcc wrote: prome, what was the conspiracy theory you wanted to chat about? Any reason why you don't have a post this cycle? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On January 24 2014 07:36 austinmcc wrote: I need to reconsider Kita, but I haven't gotten anything very scummy off him. On January 24 2014 08:06 austinmcc wrote: (4) Chat with Kitaman, and get others to talk ABOUT kitaman. A couple posts have mentioned him looking a little worse from the sandro flip (i think?). He has posted some. But overall, just half-following and reading through thread, I don't have a strong sense of him doing stuff recently. That could be entirely wrong, but he's too under the radar for my liking, and I think his alignment and his filter make a good topic of discussion for today. Either we start pressuring him, or he's town and he gets active and gives some good posts, it's a win win to talk about kita more. On January 26 2014 05:35 austinmcc wrote: Kita is entirely off my radar in a bad way, I have not chatted with him today like I wanted to, and when I think of his filter this game, nothing particularly good or bad springs to mind. Is there a reason that you've put so little effort into interacting with me? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On January 29 2014 01:47 marvellosity wrote: Too many people way too non-committal too close to deadline. When Wave is away and my activity will be patchy once I leave work (exercise/dinner/shower/bf/broken laptop i can't take to bf's etc) Fool mafia. Prome town. Final answer. Gogo lynch. If the lynch happened in 10 minutes, that's where I'd be at. Still want to look at a few more things before I vote. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On January 29 2014 01:52 austinmcc wrote: Kita, smaller issue than Fool/Prome then. Do you understand what I'm getting at with people saying "activity = town" on WoS? I don't trust Armando. Does he have proof of residence? I understand what you're saying, but is it a concern if Wave's posts actually do look townie, aka he is active and making quality posts? If Prom were to attack Wave's posts as a useless wall of text and then suddenly consider him unlynchable it would be one thing, but he does refer to the posts as decent and involved. | ||
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