EPTNewbie Mini Mafia LI - Page 3
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After reading theDragoon's final post, I really feel that it's full of such sincere towniness that switching the vote to the next scummiest candidate was a good move, rather than lynching a townie. I think if dnyarri turns out to be scum, it pretty much clears the names of Jonny and OWB who switched at the last minute to prevent a mislynch. I don't agree that Balla looks scummy for "NO FUCK OFF YOU GUYS", because when I hopped in at the last minute and saw people were jumping off theDragoon that was my exact thought as well. I also agree with chinstrap's analysis that it doesn't make sense for Balla to say that if dnyarri and him are scumbuddies, as a switch was looking extremely likely at that point. Going forward I'm going to be looking in detail at the events of Day 1 and re-analyzing my reads. I've got a splitting headache so I don't know if I'll get it out tonight, and I really want to be thorough. | ||
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On January 08 2014 10:06 Balla24 wrote: if dragoon HAD BEEN SCUM it would have been so easy to save him. My problem with this idea is that if it really was a scum plan, he would have at least posted this an hour, and probably a few hours before the deadline. I think the fact that it was so last minute that there was no possible scum motive for posting that kind of goodbye post was what triggered Jonny and OWB to make the instant decision to switch. | ||
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This explains why he voted dnyarri, but my impression is that the sincerity and timing of theDragoon's goodbye post had a lot of meaning as to why the decision to switch at the last minute was made. | ||
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BigDad: I know most people have a town read on him, but after theDragoon's lynch I want to ask people to have a closer look at him because I still think his early wishy-washiness is a scum tell. Also of note is that he was one of the people that pushed the Day_Walker/theDragoon scum buddy theory. Here is the post, with parts bolded for emphasis: On January 06 2014 20:30 BigDad wrote: As secondary evidence, i find theDragoons trust in him to be slightly incriminating... I already have my doubts about theDragoon as expressed earlier, however in this reply he off-handedly indicates his trust towards Day_Walker and jumps on the initial theChyz bandwagon. I am wary of sly indicators of trust before a paragraph of 'fluff' or 'waffle' (read the quote, it makes little sense) as it is easy as a reader to think "That sounded solid, I trust that guy" without a second thought. Asuna seems to have good intentions. Day_Walker and theDragoon seem scummy. I never believed that Day_Walker and theDragoon were scumbuddies so I never gave the theory any thought, however looking at 'Day_Walker seems to have good intentions... I agree that theChyz is suspicious', I think it really is a stretch to call that a 'sly indicator of trust'. I've already outlined several times that I think theDragoon is an easy scum pick. Look at his posts (and my previous posts on him). I'll state it again he tends to dodge questions and post fluff that we cannot use to hunt scum. His self-vote is confusing; it's either a desperate, last-ditch attempt by a scum player to make us doubt our actions. Or it's a newbie town that can't deal with the pressure on himself and he needs to post more content to get the bandwagon off him. I called him out for being wishy-washy on this statement. If he's so sure that theDragoon is an easy scum pick, why does he have to include analysis on what it means if theDragoon is town? My reads for suspicious player currently stand against Dnyarri and theDragoon with less doubt on Day_Walker for his pro-town stance on lynching those who aren't contributing. My thoughts on BigDad's play is that he was supporting a Dragoon lynch, with the plan of following up by lynching Day_Walker. He eases off Day_Walker because he notices people are starting to agree that Day_Walker is looking suspicious. Maybe other people don't see it, and maybe I'm tunneling BigDad a bit too hard (I admit, he hasn't responded to my pressure at all which is more townie than scummy), but the way he flips back and forth in his first few posts really feels off to me. Couple that with our insight on the tD/DW scum buddy theory, makes me think people need to look at him a little closer. | ||
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theDragoon posted this: Regarding: dynarri He did get the ball rolling on me with the help of BigDad's accusation of me trusting Day_Walker. As I mentioned multiple times before, and even debunked that I never placed my trust in Day_Walker. If I recall correctly, dnyarri, onlywonderboy and BigDad were the ones to use the DW and tD are scum buddies card because tD trusted him. They may have conspired together to fabricate that story and that makes them really suspicious. The only thing I can find in dnyarri's filter regarding both Day_Walker and theDragoon is: TheDragoon stated that Day_Walker seemed like innocent even though Day_Walker had only posted one list and nothing else. Day_Walker's only vote is against TheChyz which doesn't mean much since TheChyz is easy bandwagoning target. TheDragoon's post give me the impression that he wants to slow voting down by defending (random) people while going to TheChyz-bandwagon and attacking nobody else. So I don't think theDragoon's reasoning is valid. I find it really hard to read dnyarri. Yes, he was the first person to vote for theDragoon, but the only other possible thing that's standing out to me is the possible 'buddy up' attempt with me (he has refuted it but he would do that whether he's town or mafia, so it's a moot point). Again, his filter is so short I really really want to see more from him. One thing that bothers me is he seems to be the easy target right now and again, it feels 'too easy'. I think, even if people still want to lynch him Day 2, we should look for other possibilities and only lynch him if he still appears the most scummy. | ||
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I think the tD/DW scumbuddy theory was a bit farfetched, and even theDragoon felt it was pushed too far. As the third person on theDragoon's list of people who pursued that argument, I feel like it's prudent to look into OnlyWonderBoy. On the last minute switch: + Show Spoiler + First thing to note is that he did try to last-minute vote switch with Jonny onto dnyarri. I feel that this makes him a definite town, but thinking further this applies only if dnyarri flips red. If dnyarri flips green it makes no difference to him to switch and it could be a move to grab town cred. Again, you can't argue one way or another without knowing dnyarri's alignment so I won't consider any of this in my analysis. One thing that stands out to me is that OWB has talked about only three people: Derrida, Dragoon and Day_Walker His impression on Derrida seems to be neutral so far, and that he thinks Derrida's early Day 1 play seems influenced more by inexperience than scumminess. He was third to vote for theDragoon which I feel is a point in his favour, although his reasoning is based on the td/DW theory: On January 07 2014 05:27 onlywonderboy wrote: My main scum reads at the moment are Dragoon and Day_Walker. They seem to be interacting a decent amount, which isn't inherently scummy, but they go out of there way to distance themselves from each other. Dragoon says "For the record, I want to make it clear that I never said I completely trust Day_Walker," Then Day_Walker says: I understand wanting to get out ahead of these accusations, but that doesn't mean we should ignore it simply because he pushed Dragoon slightly. These just seem like they are trying to distance themselves early so if either if them go down we don't suspect them as a scum pair. I think he was the one to first throw out the idea that tD and DW were trying to distance themselves from each other. He doesn't state any other reasons to suspect either tD or DW. Just before the end of the day, he states: The more and more I think about it the more I start to doubt the Day_Walker/Dragoon pair. This mostly has to do with how things have played out since Dragoon got a large portion of the votes. I agree that Day_Walker has put forth way more effort into defending Dragoon after his doom seemed inevitable and decided to rally his cause around a lurker that it would be hard to gather support for. If Dragoon flips town DW looks clear, but he seems to have gone out of his way to make it actually look this way. If they were both scum it's unlikely he would be defending him so vehemently. He is doubting that tD and DW are a pair. He states "If Dragoon flips town DW looks clear", but he follows that up with "he seems to have gone out of his way to make it actually look this way" which implies that he finds the DW's hard defense of tD suspicious in itself. When he last-minute switches to dnyarri (following Jonny's lead), he says he "wanted DW over Dragoon anyway". Nothing stands out to me in OWB's filter as particularly scummy so I'm going to rate him as neutral at the moment, although I'm not liking the fact that the only analysis he's contributed against tD/DW is on the scum buddy theory. to OnlyWonderBoy: I really want to hear your thoughts on what went down. I also want to see more analysis on why you wanted Day_Walker over theDragoon in Day 1, and what your thoughts on him are after the flip. I want to hear your top scum picks because so far your only suspects have been theDragoon and Day_Walker. | ||
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Derrida: TheDragoon: null for me so far. Suspiciously null perhaps? Alert level: YELLOW @thedragoon, you just leaped from an /offtopic discussion to an /ontopic demagogy by your "You will all see when I get lynched tomorrow that this "distancing theory" is completely dumbfounded" line. This is somewhat suspicious. Fine, I will not further derail the thread about the value of voting, but I still think it's pointless. This just means that if the deadline was 2 minutes from now, I would vote like this. ## Vote TheDragoon Off to sleep, afk for 8ish hours. This is a pretty big leap. I don't care about vote order or the fact that he votes theDragoon explaining that 'if the vote was 2 minutes from now, I would vote [for him]'. What stands out to me is that he has theDragoon initially as 'suspiciously' yellow, and me and sidesprang as red, and yet he votes for theDragoon. I'm not liking the line 'This is somewhat suspicious' in the second quote. It feels too careful. When called out for his vote on theDragoon, he points out that the lynch is a win-win situation because if theDragoon flips town, then I look more suspicious. I still see your lynch as a win-win situation this morning, with the possible further upside of providing further information on Suki if you flip townie (who was RED ALERT status on my initial list). He follows up later on after theDragoon's final comment on me: "Quite the change of heart from bold "lynch me and you will see Suki as scum" to "I'm thinking she is town as well." I feel that Derrida's early game is just full of noise and can be explained by inexperience, but I'm not liking his more recent play and am inclined to read him as more scummy than neutral. to Derrida: Who are your top scum reads at this point? Am I even more red now, now that theDragoon has flipped? I'd like to hear your thoughts. | ||
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I think scum shooting Jonny was motivated simply by removing a strong town player, although it also could very well have been an attempt to get the heat off of Derrida. I think shooting chinstrap would have been too obvious, because if town had a doctor the save would have most likely been put on the IC. So then I think their choices would have been me, Balla or Jonny. At that point Jonny had started his pressure on Derrida, and he had also almost orchestrated a flip onto dnyarri (more on that in a second). If Derrida and dnyarri are both scum, taking out Jonny would be a very obvious move. On the other hand, I had only just started to really suspect Derrida (before his post-lynch post, I was on the fence/slightly leaning scum), and I was also neutral on dnyarri. Balla was really hammering down hard on Derrida, but he had stated only soft suspicions on dnyarri and also had the 'FUCK OFF GUYS' quote just before the switch from tD to dnyarri. NK's can be played really WIFOM-y so I'm hesitant to read too much into NK's, especially the first one, but Occam's razor points to dnyarri as scum. Looking at dnyarri's filter, again I don't agree with the 'lynch a lurker' mentality, however I do think there's enough circumstantial evidence to point to him. That is, Derrida's strange lack of comment on dnyarri and Jonny's last-minute vote switch attempt. I just thought of something: Day_Walker and Big_Dad had voted for dnyarri previous to that. Jonny had suspicions on Big_Dad, and Day_Walker was already being targetted by several others and was the second/third candidate for the day 1 lynch. With Jonny dead, scum may have thought it would be possible to lay low again in Day 2 and watch town rip itself apart - and they probably weren't expecting Derrida to get shot. | ||
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##vote: dnyarri | ||
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I have a few questions for Asuna: And oh, Jonny was town... well that's awkward. You said this in response to the NK. How is this more awkward than anyone else being killed? Who are your top scum reads now, and why? You were gone for the whole night phase, and have barely commented on it now that it's Day 2. You're borderline lurking here. | ||
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OnlyWonderBoy I posted analysis on OWB after the lynch and came up on him as neutral. However, looking through everyone's filters I came upon his again and noticed that even though nothing looks particularly scummy to me, nothing looked particularly town as well. So I went diving. I brought up his two most recent games to try to get a feel for his play style. In one he was mafia, in the other he was vigilante. In both games, he didn't post a lot, and in both games he is somewhat cautious. As blue, OWB: Was more direct and assertive Sympathized with newbie play As mafia (his most recent game), OWB: made excuses a lot targetted lurkers followed the flow of the town rather than pushing his own reads OWB's play this game is somewhat in the middle of the two. However, what stands out to me is that he is really going along with the flow of the town. He hasn't been assertive, and hasn't pushed any reads. Rather, he seems cautious even when he says he is fine with lynching someone: In terms of other possible scum players, I'm of course suspicious of dnyarri like a lot of players now. Really hope he shows up so we get some sort of insight on his play. Don't have any other solid scum reads right now so I guess my main focus is on dnyarri and Day_Walker. If Dragoon flips town DW looks clear, but he seems to have gone out of his way to make it actually look this way. If they were both scum it's unlikely he would be defending him so vehemently. OWB has persistently been trying to push Derrida's play as bad townie over scummy. I didn't see anything particularly off about that, but given Derrida's flip there's an argument to be made that a scum OWB was hoping to be able to save Derrida from a Day 2 lynch. I almost let OWB get cleared in my mind for the day due to his last-minute switch antics, but thinking on it more, even if the switch went through and dnyarri was scum, scum OWB still could claim massive town cred from it. It could have been a calculated risk as there were only a few minutes before the end of the day and a good chance that not enough people were on to make it happen. So I'm going to say that the fact that he tried to switch is completely non-indicative of alignment regardless of what dnyarri is. I'm not seeing the directness of blue OWB's play in this game, and he seems to be more following the flow of the town than trying to contribute. Based on his previous games, I think he reads more scum than town to me at this point and should be looked at closer by everyone else. | ||
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He won't know what people's alignments are but he will initially try to protect the scummiest looking players, while also playing cautious and not making waves so that he can avoid being lynched or NK'd. | ||
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People if you're town you NEED to contribute, otherwise there's no chance that we can win. | ||
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What I'm saying is that OWB's play has not been very pro-town, and if dnyarri flips red that shouldn't just give him a green pass for the rest of the game. | ||
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While this is a negative statement against Derrida it's hardly pushing him very hard. Could easily be a weak read to just to build cred if Derrida ever flipped scum (although I doubt the scum team expected it to come so soon) I also don't think his main theory of Asuna/dnyarri/Derrida is super solid. It revolves heavily around the idea of Derrida leaving out Asuana and dnyarri from his initial reads. I just can't imagine a scum player purposely leaving BOTH of his partners off of a list. It's so suspicious and something people could easily find. If that's what actually happened that might be the worst mafia play I've seen in all my newb games. If we are less certain about dnyarri being scum I'm fine with finding a new target, but at this point even if we lynch him we find out a lot of information regardless of how he flips. This is OWB's most recent post after I posted my case on him. Again, going by my read on him, he's still not making strong statements and is being wishy-washy with his opinions. "If we are less certain about dnyarri being scum I'm fine with finding a new target" says to me, "I don't want to make a decision on who to lynch so I'll just follow what people think." I think it's really suspicious that up to now, OWB has not made a single strong case on anyone, and I feel this fits more with his scum meta than town meta. His defense on Derrida definitely reads like a scum trying to save his buddy from being lynched. He also did not respond to my post on him at all. I would have expected a townie OWB to respond to the accusations in some way, and there is definite scum motivation for trying to ignore pressure and hope it goes away. Instead, he just pushes some flimsy reads and calls it a day. If Derrida wasn't NK'd last night, they may have been planning to run a defensive line such as 'Why would scum make a case against Jonny and Balla and then shoot them? This doesn't make sense, therefore Derrida could not have known what the night shot was going to be - hence he is bad townie." Then if OWB+Derrida push a mislynch today, they are in a very good position on Day 3 with 4 town and 0 scum dead. ##unvote ##vote: OnlyWonderBoy | ||
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Also, dnyarri: Please give us your opinion on OnlyWonderBoy. Asuna: Your thoughts on the dnyarri/OWB discussion as well. Also you need to vote someone. | ||
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