EPTWho was on risen early, ESPECIALLY if they were on because SS said so, and then swapped to thrawn, and maybe didn't have great reasoning on either?
WTB TIME
TL Mafia LXIII: Time to Die - Page 28
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Who was on risen early, ESPECIALLY if they were on because SS said so, and then swapped to thrawn, and maybe didn't have great reasoning on either? WTB TIME | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On December 05 2013 08:09 Grackaroni wrote: I know. It's the swapping off Koshi on D3 AT ALL that confuses me. Whether people agreed or disagreed on koshi, rayn was either going to be dead or ALMOST be dead (and probably killed shortly after), adding fuel to his Koshi fire.He moved off Risen for having good posts at the deadline (easy lynch for another day) to somebody who was never going to get lynched that day. people didn't agree with koshi being scum for pushing Rayn so he rereads Koshi's filter and changes his mind and states that he wants to make his vote matter (Later moves on to you by himself so he doesn't do that). The next day when people were angry Koshi lynched Rayn and were voting Risen his suspicion goes right back to Koshi and Risen. But he no do. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
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It was after thrawn was already getting lynched. So slam......sees that thrawn is going to die, doesn't want to be left off for cred? Moreover, he jumps on the dude that he gets told to jump on? (He asks in thread, someone (i forget who) says thrawn, he votes thrawn). Then he jumps off later to.......not shenanigans, cuz ain't no shenanigans happened. So either it's aborted shenanigans and he got stuck having already swapped a vote. or He's...compounding his looking bad by not voting thrawn by jumping on/off, making himself a very very curious voter for that time or He's ... town? I don't see a case in which it makes sense for scum to hop on late and then hop off and look REALLY WEIRD while doing it. And not "slam is doing something weird," but scumSlam sees thrawn getting lynched and wants cred so he hops on but then he hops off and nothing happens after he hops off weird. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
If he's mafia...why does he come in and ask who to vote for? If he's mafia...when someone says thrawn, he doesn't hedge AT ALL? He just hops on thrawn? And then...swaps off later because he goes OH MAN I FORGOT THRAWN IS MY BUDDY AND WE'LL LOSE A KP BUT I CAN'T SAVE HIM ANYWAY! I don't get that. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
He attacks grack for a while, lotta posts between them, and a decent amount of posts between onegu/thrawn and pandain/thrawn. THOUGHT: If thrawn looks to be gaining ground, scum can distance on this day and can also interact with him and whatever THOUGHT: If thrawn thinks he might be looking bad, he attacks a scumbuddy, so that when/if he's lynched, maybe scumbuddy looks worse. THOUGHT: That's all thoughts and we don't know STILL THOUGH: That makes onegu seem slightly more town? If he's attacking a scumbuddy, it's for distancing. Him calling onegu scum and then saying no, onegu probably not scum, makes no sense if onegu is scum? ANOTHER THOUGHT: On November 24 2013 16:45 thrawn2112 wrote: no i don't think so... besides that he's low priority for me atm I don't like this. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On December 05 2013 08:48 Pandain wrote: Austin I mason you I know, I've just been super absent and don't have that tab open at the moment, I'm not at home. Will pull it up. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On December 05 2013 08:54 Holyflare wrote: I hate this scenario in the face.If he's mafia he comes in and asks to consolidate upon a person, people think he's agreeable and following town sentiment. Thrawn was hammered, there was no changing it unless hardcore shenanigans which may have been planned in QT previously before slam returned. Reads QT and swaps off, people say it is too late and won't do it. EZ conclusion, obviously wifom as hell but changing to a person who is only 1 vote ahead of the other is not a towny mindset either, that just promotes likely shenanigans instead of deters them! No way does scum come back and just freely ask who to vote without checking the vote thread or QT. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
I DON'T LIKE LONEMEOW'S FILTER WHEN I LOOK THROUGH IT. I LIKED A LOT OF HIS MASON-Y RESPONSES BUT WHEN I LOOK BACK THROUGH OUR LOGS I DO NOT LIKE THEM. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
austinmcc So you're not a big fan of any of yamato's final reads? This isn't a trap, this is just...he wrote koshi/thrawn if useless/oats. I just want to see if you agree/disagree with them, and it looks like you are town/town/? on those three. LoneMeow I don't super agree with them, no. Koshi is the one I'm most afraid of, because if I'm wrong about him and he is actually scum it means I'm probably wrong about a lot of other things. --- LoneMeow If you could shoot one person now, before the lynch, who would you shoot? Ie. of the people you find scummy, whose flip do you think would help us figure out the game? austinmcc I shoot BC 80000000000000000%. If BC is mafia, oats is not, and people get off his nuts. If BC is mafia, grack is VERY VERY VERY likely town. I think. Maybe. It also makes thrawn look much worse for his saying BC's take on the mocsta/grack interactions so sexy. Also very telling of mig's alignment, scum BC = 99.999% town mig. I think BC is a lynchpin here and...needs to get lynched? austinmcc Yourself? LoneMeow I'd be very tempted to shoot supersoft. His flip would be very useful, but I'm still not very satisfied that he actually is scum. BloodyC0bbler isn't a bad choice either, I just can't get any kind of read on him, everything he says seems like it could come from either alignment. I suspect it would help if I had played with him before. -- austinmcc In your mind, what does supersoft's flip say about people? Both town and scum flips. LoneMeow If he'd flip scum then Alakaslam, BloodyC0bbler and Holyflare would all look bad. if he'd flip town, then Koshi and you would look interesting. Possibly also Oatsmaster. -- austinmcc What do you make of thrawn being active in another game but not this one? LoneMeow Really weird. But wouldn't it be kind of stupid to intentionally do that as scum? -- I brought up thrawn a bunch of times in our mason chat and he never talks about thrawn at all basically. He avoids it hard. I do not liiiike | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On December 05 2013 09:01 Holyflare wrote: Wut?austin wth why did you tell me onegu had a good reason to switch to CC and LM's switch was scummy when onegu's was also really quite terrible......... | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
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LM looks worse to me. I hate this vote right now might be back before lynch ack ack ack ack voting LM | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
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Hopeless Grack Pandain Holyflare LM Slam Alive. 3 mafia. Out of the group, Pandain, Holyflare, and LM are all masons. We've flipped 2 mafia masons. Highly unlikely there are two more? That seems like way too many mafia masons, 2/3 the team. So probably one out of Pandain/Holyflare/LM? Possibly two, but working off one for now. Holyflare very likely town. Has been quite active for a couple days, was pushing hard AGAINST cheesecake lynch and doing so with good reasoning, he is way way way off my list for now. Grack off my list for now. However, popped up yesterday with a big post on onegu, lotta effort, and that makes me just barely tingly. Not up for lynch tomorrow though. That leaves me: Coag, Hopeless, Pandain, Slam, LM. Pandain votes on D3 --> Hopeless, coag, thrawn, LM, bc, and rayn. We KNOW 2 of those votes are mafia. We KNOW there are 3 mafia still left, and it's...highly unlikely that ZERO of hopeless/coag/LM are mafia (does anyone disagree with this, no mafia in that entire group of 3 still alive?). Assuming > 0 of those unknown living dudes are mafia, that means pandain had 3+ mafia votes on him D3, and again, the lynch was close between risen/pandain/rayn. I think this indicates that pandain is town, and, at the very least, makes him probably a bad lynch choice. That leaves me: Coag, Hopeless, Slam, LM Some more posts coming as I read through. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
LM looked bad to me early on, and was getting town cred just for masoning yamato, when he had interactions with yamato before. So far, not a single person has popped out of mason chat going AHA! I HAVE CAPTURED A MAFIA FOR SAID MAFIA HAS MASONED ME. So I think we're overvaluing mafia's reluctance to mason townies/strong townies/consensus townies. In fact, we ought to look at mason targets of mafia because it's relatively unlikely they mafia themselves unless they KNOW they need a smokescreen. Someone/me/anyone should check on BC and thrawn's targets, see who remains. Anyways, LM bobs and weaves every time I mention thrawn in QT, see the posts I pulled out from before. I liked the way he was replying to me, being relatively open, but as more people flip, his openness starts to look less lovely. He was willing to be very, very active in mason chat, asking a lot of question about who is implicated if so and so flips whatever. During that period, he barely posted in thread (that's cool, he's active somewhere), but AFTER that period, when he's shown he can be active and post (at least in QT), he's still just not there. I don't love that, just never picking up and getting involved, despite showing he can be plenty involved in mason chat (except where thrawn is concerned). He is cool with VE for mayor after VE lists his targets as skan, pandain, sharrant, NOT BC, and probably not storr. We know now that VE's list at that point was town, unknown, town, NOT SCUM. He even says later on he liked VE's earlier choices over VE's later set (not that VE's later set frightened scum either). Asking about the sharrant shot. Was minorly pointed at before, someone, maybe rayn, was really into that point? Who was it? Just a minor thing, but we know town shot sharrant, and so LM's interest in sharrant's death is just a curiosity. His...hmmm. He says he can buy yamato and spaghet being shot because "they looked townie". However, if you read LM's filter, he says he was worried about yamato b/c yamato not active in mason. He asks spaghet and Artanis their thoughts on yamato, asks yamato about a read change on grack (a target mafia was interested in), and so it's a little curious that thinks it's coolio for mafia to have shot yamato. He did not appear convinced that yamato appeared super town, yamato didn't appear super duper town enough to be elected, but LM fine with a mafia shot on him and curious about sharrant. He starts mentioning Mattchew as a nice, juicy lurker, around the time Mattchew's name starts being thrown around. That's a flag for me. He ... votes for thrawn. Then says he's going to re-re-read thrawn's filter (he has not commented on thrawn except to tell me thrawn looks town in mason chat). He asks about thrawn and oats scum together. He asks who would be red if thrawn flips scum. One thing I've noticed throughout the game is LM is asking a LOT of association questions. See our mason chat. See his filter. If so and so flips this, who looks bad/good. It's not outright scummy, but it's great for planning NKs and lynches. He....he calls out thrawn for dodging the subject of BC in thrawn/rayn chat. This is scummy. Does he recognize that it looks like he was avoiding thrawn in our chat? AAAAHHHHHH. LOOK AT HIS D3 VOTES. HE VOTES BC AND PANDAIN. WHY DOES HE VOTE BC? In mason chat 40 LoneMeow 11-22-2013 05:45 PM ET (US) I'd be very tempted to shoot supersoft. His flip would be very useful, but I'm still not very satisfied that he actually is scum. BloodyC0bbler isn't a bad choice either, I just can't get any kind of read on him, everything he says seems like it could come from either alignment. I suspect it would help if I had played with him before. In thread? Nothing. LM doesn't MENTION BC until after he's already voted thrawn. Never mentioned in thread, said he couldn't read him in mason chat, votes for him on D3 though. It's not much at all, considering we've had plenty of wrong reads this game and plenty of townies have been way wrong, but his reads are always so off. His scumlist recently was oats, onegu, risen, and slam, 3 townies and an unknown. He makes sure to add that if risen is scum, onegu and oats are probably town. There's no....work shown for this? I don't know where he's getting some of these connections, risen and onegu and oats are ALL SCUMMY, BUT IF RISEN IS SCUM then onegu and oats aren't? That doesn't make sense. If you think risen is scum, and you think risen being scum means oats and onegu are "possibly incorrect" (sorry, he doesn't say they're town in that case, just his reads possibly incorrect), then...how do you have them all together and why? I don't like his other logs. His Koshi log is a lot of fluffy questions. His yamato log was mostly that. His log with me is a lot of that. AND HE'S ALWAYS DRAWING CONNECTIONSSSSSSS. If oats flips red, look at slam! (He has defended slam a good bit in his posts/logs, and the way he draws connections always has slam looking town based on flips. I'm keeping this in mind, and gonna channel LM for a second to say that if LM is scum, slam is scum). He's been defending slam all game, saying that flips will show slam is scum. Then yesterday, he wants to lynch Onegu with Slam as a secondary candidate. WHY DOES HE WANT TO KILL SLAM NOW? Read his early stuff, read his associations with slam, and suddenly he's cool lynching slam and I don't know why? | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
(1) LM ducked questions about thrawn in our mason chat. One of the reasons he voted thrawn was thrawn was ducking questions about BC in rayn/thrawn chat. (2) LM's D3 and D4 votes come out of near-nowhere. He has never mentioned BC in thread D3. He tells me in mason chat he can't get a read on BC. He votes BC. On D4 he has not mentioned thrawn, except to say that thrawn looks townie in our mason chat. Not much reasoning, passing mention, moves on. He likes the thrawn posts, votes thrawn, digs up a couple extra things, says he's re-re-reading thrawn. I don't like those interactions, either one. (3) His filter and mason logs are SUPER FLUFFY with these association questions. Count the number of times you see "assuming x flips y, who looks z." It's a bunch. EASY questions to ask, and to a tiny tiny extent, allow you to plan ahead as mafia. MOREOVER MOREOVER MOREOVER -----> there is very little behind some of the connections he draws, you can't see where he's connecting dots. And when he DOES connect dots, he sometimes ... conveniently forgets? If oats was red, look at slam. Oats flips town. He wants to lynch Onegu > Slam > ? (4) His mason targets, so far, have all been town (unknown on coag). | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
So I would expect mafia masons to have masoned at most like one mafia. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
TL;DR Very very absent, even once he's got net Little back and forth with thrawn early Pushes pandain consistently from like D2 Hopeless had BC town D2, pandain scum D2, pandain pushed BC. Hopeless votes BC/Pandain on D3 early, why? He had a townread, and the dude is being pushed by a scumread. Why vote BC? Liked SS's oats case, hated oats, then hated SS's case and liked oats, and voted Pandain/SS. Went back to BC after SS got no traction Early vote on thrawn. Liked posts on him, but no real posts of his own Not a factor last few days except to keep pushing Pandain Very little first two days. Gets into a little spat with thrawn. He wants thrawn flipped due to "rage and indignation", but not a scumread. Likes SS's oats bit. SS's oats bit was super speculative and weak. Hopeless comes away from reading mocsta's filter and BC's stuff by finding BC town. Hopeless has what I think is a decent case post on Pandain. He makes a lot of legitimate points, they aren't just scummy crap thrown together. He has a couple points I like, the mig "slip" or not-slip, but the mig alignment shifting if no-slip. The way he interacts with mocsta and the storrzerg read. Those two things I like, some of the rest of it is meh/wrong in light of flips. Hopeless's #1 tip top read is pandain. Hopeless had BC as town. Pandain had a scumread on BC D2. So far, all of this fits, right? Hopeless's town read is being attacked by a scum read, logic is groooovy. But Hopeless's VERY FIRST POST of D3 is to vote pandain/BC. THIS IS NOT RIGHT. He had BC town. His NUMBAH WAN ICHIBAN SCUMREAD, pandain, is attacking BC. Why is he voting BC? WHY WHY WHY WHY WHY!? ALSO WHY, WHEN I SAID WE SHOULD LOOK FOR PEOPLE WHO VOTE BC FOR WEAK/NO REASONING OR FLIP READS ON HIM, DID I NOT ACTUALLY GO BACK AND DO THIS AND WHY DID NOBODY ELSE DO THIS EITHER!?!?!?!? After his vote, BC has spent his last couple days being angry at town and explaining how there is no way mig is town vet because "balance" and "logic". Stop gaming the setup. His arguments for mig shooting a lurker over shooting BC are trash imo. That's what vig shots are for, to clear out the unknowns that you are unwilling to lynch. BC is absolutely a viable lynch and I want him dead. Whether that is through Vayne or not remains to be seen, but one way or another I want BC's flip today. Complete 180. BC was town. His scumread is attacking BC. But now he's voted BC and he wants BC D-E-D ded. I gave hopeless fattie town points for coming in and saying thread was crappy D3, stop speculating, etc. etc. Still some town points, but "HEY THREAD IS BAD STAHP" is easy-ish to make from either alignment. Previously, Hopeless liked SS's case on Oats. He hated Pandain. He liked BC. Now he hates BC. Still votes Pandain, hates Pandain. He now says SS's cash is trash, and he's sorry for ever thinking Oats was mafia. Lotta floopy floops. Later unvotes BC, who he wanted to be super ded. Is now on Supersoft/Pandain, due to mason log nonsense (SS doctored logs --> no i didn't -->oright he didn't). He unvotes SS later though and goes back to Pandain. THIS WHOLE BIT DOES NOT MAKE TERRIBLY MUCH SENSE IF HE'S THINKING CRITICALLY. PANDAIN AND BC BOTH MASONED SS D1. IF SS IS SCUM, THEY AREN'T ALL SCUM. THAT SILLY BILLY TOWN. He makes the argument I like on D4, why are people sheeping SS's list. Not because he wants to lynch thrawn at this point, but because he wants to lynch Pandain still. This is curious, if scum wanted to kill pandain, it's still going hard after that target. scumHopeless thinks he's got a winner and can push it, despite BC's vote. townHopeless thinks pandain is scum and is right that people shouldn't just sheep SS's lynch list. He's fine sheeping my LM town read (if LM flips town, this is just a flag, not as weird as LM/slam). He thinks LM super lurky, no other reason to call him mafia, and forgetting about him for now. That's alright, not terribly scummy. Agrees thrawn looks scummy, but hasn't talked about thrawn at all since their little spat on N1/D2. Okay lynching thrawn, over Risen, but not over Pandain. Moves his vote to thrawn. He's #3 total, #2 once holy moves off. At this point, thrawn hasn't picked up steam, but Hopeless has said he's rather lynch thrawn over risen. It's a decently townie move, imo, he's on a scummer early. His reasoning is...lacking, but his vote is there. Dips for days. Is okay burning a lynch on VA after VA keeps calling me mafia when thrawn flips red. Votes risen, leaves thread. I don't super understand his risen vote? He didn't seem super scummy on Risen before, didn't think he was TOWN TOWN, but ... why the vote? Votes CC, would rather vote pandain, has oats town. Why oats town? Buncha people scummy on oats, he was scummy then townie on oats but only because SS's case was sloppy/crappy/etc. SS flipped town. So sloppy case or no, it was a real suspicion. Why so townie on oats? Pushes Pandain again yesterday. Very consistent on Pandain, although, to be fair, Pandain doesn't appear to have done anything that would alleviate Hopeless's suspicions. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
He says a lot of things that I liked, called the thread out on D3, called people on following Super's list D4 (although because he wanted Pandain lynched, not gung ho on thrawn). So his.....his thread management thoughts I like. But his reads I don't love, and his BC/thrawn reads are somewhat hard to follow and curious. He wanted to kill thrawn but had no scumread on thrawn early (that bit fine, but the no scumread part just important). Was townie on BC. Went on to kill both without much in the way of substantive comment. No LM mentions until D4. Was okay sheeping me saying LM was town. Had no real read on LM either way. Only relevant if LM mafia. Makes hopeless not look better. Would not lynch tomorrow. Possible mafia. More likely mafia if LM mafia. Absence D1 due to internet issues COULD explain lack of mafia mayoral push (hiro + hopeless scum and absent, 1/3 of mafia's juice gone D1) | ||
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