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Hogwarts Mafia - Page 24

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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LastArgument
Profile Joined July 2010
United States152 Posts
October 17 2013 00:21 GMT
#461
You didn't answer my question, Mocsta.

Hopeless1der, you sound like you're spouting off the approved "pro-town" response without actually giving it any thought.

The facts of the situation are that mafia very likely know who is in each house, and town do not know. Therefore giving town information that mafia are likely in possession of already is going to be a net benefit. What's the actual counter-argument to this other than vague waffling?
If i have learned one thing from life, it's that every man wants something
Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
October 17 2013 00:27 GMT
#462
What vague waffling? I don't need to know, I don't want to know. Simple. If you don't have a benefit to outing this info, its not worth talking about. I shouldn't have you tell you no, you should br able to convince ALL of us to say yes. Otherwise drop it.
LastArgument
Profile Joined July 2010
United States152 Posts
October 17 2013 00:31 GMT
#463
You purposefully provided a terrible example to try to disprove my point, when it actually supported mine.

You specifically tried to create an example where knowledge gained benefits for the users of a power. In this scenario that you created, town benefits from this information.

Yet somehow you state with confidence that there is zero benefit to releasing this information.

Your confidence is unwarranted, and your stance not very carefully thought through. That is quite suspicious.
If i have learned one thing from life, it's that every man wants something
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
October 17 2013 00:36 GMT
#464
On October 17 2013 09:21 LastArgument wrote:
You didn't answer my question, Mocsta.

I presume you are referring to:
On October 17 2013 08:57 LastArgument wrote:
I don't understand any of this reasoning. The only situation where mafia don't understand the exact player make-up of each house is when all the mafia are stacked in 1 or 2 houses. If they're in 3 houses they can obviously deduce the fourth. A mathematician will probably be able to tell you how likely it is that all mafia are in 2 or fewer houses, but I don't think the probability is very high.

What information do you think mafia are being given by releasing the members of people's houses then?
The game is a closed setup. Anything I think outside my role is WIFOM.

As I said before;
  • can you guarantee that mafia know the whole house distribution. ?
  • can you guarantee mafia have no roles that require knowledge of houses/roles/character names?

if town, the answer to both of the above should be no. So why give out mafia free information? Does this information help out town, more than it could help out mafia - I doubt it.

Given that, why are you interjecting from Toad/Supersoft to divulge their reasoning? The sole basis of your argument is mathematics, when you, yourself have not provided any calculations other than your word stating it is "highly unlikely" which segues with the below.
&
The facts of the situation are that mafia very likely know who is in each house, and town do not know. Therefore giving town information that mafia are likely in possession of already is going to be a net benefit.

What's the actual counter-argument to this other than vague waffling?
You mention vague waffling; please explain why what you are espousing is the "Fact of the situation"



Now that I answered your question. I will say again:
On October 17 2013 09:18 Mocsta wrote:
Out of everything in the thread thus far.

Why is it that you are purely commenting on that item?

Can you guarantee scum know who is what house?

Heres a tidbit.. in GoT... a player took the exact same stance you did... that player flipped scum

What is your opinion on the rest of the thread; for example, what do you make of I-Be-So-Pro interchanges with Supersoft.


Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
October 17 2013 00:37 GMT
#465
I inadvertently provided a poor example, and you're right my example shows why it would be good for town to know. Good news: I changed my mind and think you're right. Giving the information out keeps those who want it from claiming blue. However I want to read the GoT endgame discussion and setup before I do anything rash.
LastArgument
Profile Joined July 2010
United States152 Posts
October 17 2013 00:38 GMT
#466
The facts being that the probability of mafia not knowing who is in what house is extremely unlikely. Someone can work out the exact numbers but that is simply numbers. I wasn't suggesting giving out roles or character names, so I have no idea where this part of your argument is coming from.

I will comment on what I see fit to comment on.
If i have learned one thing from life, it's that every man wants something
LastArgument
Profile Joined July 2010
United States152 Posts
October 17 2013 00:42 GMT
#467
I'm sure someone will take great delight in proving me wrong if my guesstimation of the % probability is incorrect, but it won't be incorrect.
If i have learned one thing from life, it's that every man wants something
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
October 17 2013 00:43 GMT
#468
On October 17 2013 09:37 Hopeless1der wrote:
I inadvertently provided a poor example, and you're right my example shows why it would be good for town to know. Good news: I changed my mind and think you're right. Giving the information out keeps those who want it from claiming blue. However I want to read the GoT endgame discussion and setup before I do anything rash.

Considering you asked me to look into Skanjab deeper.

Why have you shown zero concern for LastArgument doing the same?
Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
October 17 2013 00:45 GMT
#469
I got sidetracked with his questioning moclogic and I'm still on my phone. You claiming miller and skanj still being fresh in my mind made me ask you since you were around.
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
October 17 2013 00:53 GMT
#470
On October 17 2013 09:45 Hopeless1der wrote:
I got sidetracked with his questioning moclogic and I'm still on my phone. You claiming miller and skanj still being fresh in my mind made me ask you since you were around.

Firstly, only Geript says moclogic; so I'm not sure why you are coining the phrase suddenly.

Secondly, out of everything in the thread (including skanjab and my SAM claim) - now that it has been pointed out - are you not concerned that LastArgument still chooses to not comment?

Lastly, what is your current read on LastArgument?
Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
October 17 2013 00:57 GMT
#471
It was a completely appropriate time to say it. The first time was unnecessary, but he was literally questioning your logic.

Town side of null. Small concern about refusal to comment, but I expect something soon from him.
supersoft
Profile Joined April 2010
Germany3729 Posts
October 17 2013 01:06 GMT
#472
On October 17 2013 08:30 Mocsta wrote:
Hi all,



Firstly,
I'm not sure why Supersoft/Toad want to release the house member distribution so eagerly?

Could either of you please divulge some reasoning behind this play

I know neither of them played GoT; but IIRC, the end-game discussion resulted in agreement between players/hosts that it was in towns best interest NOT to give out the house information. Though the setups are not identical, there are enough commonalities for me to conclude that the reasons in that game, pertain in this game.

i.e. mafia are randomly distributed; and there is potential there is at least one house they have not corrupted. Why give this information to them for free --> especially when we don't know what type of roles they have etc.



Meh yes. That only sounds like a good point. I admit, I didn't look at it that way. I only thought about what would be best for me to hunt scum. And I thouhgt that would be best for every other individual townmember, too.

I didn't thought about it from the angle "what would be worst for scum". I agree that there is the possibilitie, that the scumteam has only members in 3 houses, and one of our QTs is a clear towncircle. I agree, that it's somehow not cool for the scumteam, when they have no information what's going on in there.

But thats only one possibilitie and even if it's like that, what would 6 townies talk about in their group, when 1. they can't be sure, that no scum is around and 2. the thread is empty because most conversations take place in the QTs.

+ Show Spoiler +
I only wanted to go to the toilet. I was already sleeping. Now I am awake again ._.
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
October 17 2013 01:22 GMT
#473
SS,

Two of the big differences between GoT and this is:
#1 - that was 6 houses of 4
#2 - houses had a lord with KP power

As already pointed out, the only way mafia do not know the house distribution is if mafia is confined to two houses.

So yes, I can see the point of view that mafia perhaps have this information already.

I still dont understand how it would help to scum hunt, in particular Day1? We still have the flexibility to lynch any of the 24 people in the game - regardless of house.

Aside from LastArgument, citing "information equality" I don't see a benefit; especially given a closed setup.


That's all I have to say on the matter.

I am not pleased with how LastArgument has gone about his business; but that does not necessarily make him scummy. Guarantees he is a douche though.

Gotta re-read. Ciao.

yamato77
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
11589 Posts
October 17 2013 01:26 GMT
#474
On October 17 2013 07:01 raynpelikonoshi wrote:
Skanjab1s

Show nested quote +
On October 17 2013 06:25 Skanjab1s wrote:
On October 17 2013 06:22 raynpelikonoshi wrote:
##vote: Skanjab1s

Bring it on slytherin scum


State your house, challenger, and prepare to see it fall.


"guis I am town because I don't know yet the compositions of each House'


Show nested quote +
On October 17 2013 06:51 Skanjab1s wrote:
On October 17 2013 06:41 I-be-Pro wrote:
Okay I'm done with the contest. Just won it. So let's talk mafia.

Anything interesting happening in your QT supersoft? This skanjab guy asked in mine wether mafia has 1 member per house.
Rather scummy question to me. There's really not much to get out of that. Obviously everyone assumes so at this point but what do you expect the hosts to answer to that? Up until this point it's just a no-brainer question that might have not been a no-brainer for him. I ask that kind of questions all the time but this particular one really makes it sound like he's trying to "just post something" and look like he's participating imo.


There is actually a lot to get out of that, if there was 1 scum in each house it would make it a hell of a lot easier to find the scum. If the answer had been "yes" then we'd get like, 5 conftown every scum lynch.

"guis I am town because I have no clue how many scums there are"

who posted this?

I wanna know
Writer@WriterYamato
yamato77
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
11589 Posts
October 17 2013 01:28 GMT
#475
On October 17 2013 07:19 raynpelikonoshi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 17 2013 07:17 Zaragon wrote:
Guess we'll let the Houses trickle out to fuel discussion. There is the off-chance that scum has no one in two whole Houses, too. After my last game, I'm going to be more careful about dismissing something very unlikely prematurely.

I realized something is going to be very confusing: bits of rayn's scum play looks similar to Koshi's town, and their hydra is not particularly stating who is talking (unless I missed them setting up times or something in the pregame). For an early read, them using that ambiguity I'll put down as leaning slightly scum.

skanjab1s is just odd so far, somewhat scummy and/or new; any meta on him?

rayn will sign his posts.
Also we will be a beacon of towniness. Don't worry about us.

nvm it's the bad head of the hydra
Writer@WriterYamato
Mattchew
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States5684 Posts
October 17 2013 01:38 GMT
#476
yo yam, does that mean your thinking what im thinking
There is always tomorrow nshs.seal.
yamato77
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
11589 Posts
October 17 2013 01:38 GMT
#477
On October 17 2013 08:30 Mocsta wrote:
Hi all,



Firstly,
I'm not sure why Supersoft/Toad want to release the house member distribution so eagerly?

Could either of you please divulge some reasoning behind this play

I know neither of them played GoT; but IIRC, the end-game discussion resulted in agreement between players/hosts that it was in towns best interest NOT to give out the house information. Though the setups are not identical, there are enough commonalities for me to conclude that the reasons in that game, pertain in this game.

i.e. mafia are randomly distributed; and there is potential there is at least one house they have not corrupted. Why give this information to them for free --> especially when we don't know what type of roles they have etc.


Secondly,

Raynkonoshi, can you please confirm that because no posts have been signed by Rayn; you are responsible for every post made by your hydra so far?


Thirdly,

I have no opinion on the skanjab stuff so far. I'm acknowledging it occured because obvious thats the biggest matter going on in the thread so far; but I need to re-read it all again before stating an opinion.


Lastly,
I'm not sure if this is right play to do in a themed closed game. But in a normal I believe you are meant to do this.

I am a self-aware miller.

After my doctor fake-claims as town last game, I can understand those that refuse to believe this.
So if this ends up in my lynch, so be it.

zzzzzzzzzz

Moc your opening posts always reek of scum
Writer@WriterYamato
yamato77
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
11589 Posts
October 17 2013 01:38 GMT
#478
On October 17 2013 10:38 Mattchew wrote:
yo yam, does that mean your thinking what im thinking

that if it was Rayn I would lynch him on the spot?
Writer@WriterYamato
Mattchew
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States5684 Posts
October 17 2013 01:40 GMT
#479
On October 17 2013 10:38 yamato77 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 17 2013 10:38 Mattchew wrote:
yo yam, does that mean your thinking what im thinking

that if it was Rayn I would lynch him on the spot?

hellz yeah.

what do you think about the houses and who's in each.. im really tempted to just list all my housemates cause i think theres nothing to be gained from a town perspective in keeping them secret
There is always tomorrow nshs.seal.
yamato77
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
11589 Posts
October 17 2013 01:41 GMT
#480
On October 17 2013 08:57 LastArgument wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 17 2013 08:30 Mocsta wrote:

Firstly,
I'm not sure why Supersoft/Toad want to release the house member distribution so eagerly?

Could either of you please divulge some reasoning behind this play

I know neither of them played GoT; but IIRC, the end-game discussion resulted in agreement between players/hosts that it was in towns best interest NOT to give out the house information. Though the setups are not identical, there are enough commonalities for me to conclude that the reasons in that game, pertain in this game.

i.e. mafia are randomly distributed; and there is potential there is at least one house they have not corrupted. Why give this information to them for free --> especially when we don't know what type of roles they have etc.



I don't understand any of this reasoning. The only situation where mafia don't understand the exact player make-up of each house is when all the mafia are stacked in 1 or 2 houses. If they're in 3 houses they can obviously deduce the fourth. A mathematician will probably be able to tell you how likely it is that all mafia are in 2 or fewer houses, but I don't think the probability is very high.

What information do you think mafia are being given by releasing the members of people's houses then?

this is true, but town in GoT were the idiots who came up with the secrecy idea in the first place, so this doesn't mean Moc is mafia unless he's playing intentionally stupid
Writer@WriterYamato
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