On October 08 2013 12:38 Chairman Ray wrote:Right now, my belief is that VA is the last banger, and the other scumteam is solstice/austinmcc/CC. I will be adding onto me previous read which is here:
Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 05:04 Chairman Ray wrote:
I have read through all the copclaim stuff a few times now and I think I have a good read on what has happened.
It is clear through solstice's filter, and if he was scum, then this was all planned out very well. He gave a legitimate excuse for everything, even when he's on the spot and not given a lot of time to respond. This tells me that everything was preconstructed and thought over. Other alternative would be that he's genuinely the cop, but I wouldn't say that.
There could be two scenarios in this, solstice is the last banger, or solstice is the a part of the three man team.
If solstice is the last banger, then he intent may be to coordinate some sort of attack with the other scumteam. The only one I can think of would be to roleblock Koshi and then KP him. That would avoid Koshi's actions stopping or redirecting the kill. But what doesn't make sense is why that would be a better alternative than to use driveby and do it yourself the next night? Maybe he was just being very cautious and didn't want the worst case scenario where Koshi gets double weeded and double KPed by both teams. I think overall it is very unlikely that solstice is the last banger.
If solstice is a part of the three man team, then this was all planned out. We must see some sort of strategy that's being coordinated between 3 people. There are three ways that the scumteam can benefit from this. The first strategy is to bus solstice for it so they look town, so when solstice flips, the obvious targets would be those who tried to defend him. Many of us fit this right now. The second strategy is to actually try and get a mislynch on Koshi. If this were the case, one of the mafia would be someone who's asking the right questions to solstice in order to get the information out there that solstice may likely be town. I think WoS and austincc are most guilty of this right now. The last strategy is to prevent solstice from being lynched today by saying that it is a bad idea to lynch either solstice or koshi, and try to push for a mislynch. Austin fits this strategy. I would say that overall, it is quite likely that austin may actually be in a scumteam with solstice, even though my reads on him thus far have been town.
I would also like to bring up another scenario that hasn't been considered yet, and I think may be likely. I think that it could be the case that both solstice and cc are in the same mafia team and this is all a ploy. After the last banger and Koshi dies, the only thing the scumteam has to do to win is to get one person trusted, so that it will eventually be down to one mafia one town, and then mafia wins. Doing this kinda plan after Koshi and the last banger dies would be too suspicious, so they are doing it now, because Koshi and the last banger will die fairly soon. It's the perfect timing. So this ploy is basically to get CC confirmed as town. Then there's the question of who the last mafia member is. As I already stated, I think this was all preplanned and thought over. So if all mafia is trying to do is to make CC look town, they don't actually need an elaborate plan. Solstice can just flop and ragequit and it would accomplish the same thing. So who's taking advantage of the fact that Solstice is explaining everything very well? I think that person is austincc. He's asking the right questions to make solstice flesh out the plan, and then he's also pushing that we don't lynch solstice this turn and try to push the lynch onto another person. This tells me that the most likely three would be solstice/cc/ausintcc.
Either way, we have to lynch solstice today, since if he turns out to be the last banger, or even the cop, it would give us all the information we need to know exactly who to lynch the next day.
Just a recap from my last read, I think that the whole solstice fake-cop claim was planned out, and it is a fair assumption that both other scum teammates are a part of the plan. There are two outcomes to the plan - solstice gets lynched, or someone random gets lynched. There's also the outcome that Koshi gets lynched, but at that point mafia has such a huge advantage, so no point analyzing that scenario.
I think the motivation behind the whole fake cop-claim was that the scumteam believed there was a good chance that solstice would be lynched by the end of the day. This plan would enable a better chance of solstice's survival, or it would make austinmcc and CC look more town. They had to pull it off at the beginning of the day because if solstice gets voted heavily on and then they try to pull it off, then it may look suspicious.
Firstly, the scenario where solstice does not get lynched, and the lynch gets pushed onto someone else. We have to go back and look at who has been pushing to lynch outside solstice/koshi, and who has been agreeing with it. Outside people who have already been confirmed as town, only austinmcc fits that bill. He was pushing pretty hard that the best case is for neither koshi nor solstice to be lynched. He posted a lot of math explaining why that's the best option, which ended up in this conclusion:
Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 04:50 austinmcc wrote:On October 07 2013 04:48 VisceraEyes wrote:
Actually it doesn't now that I'm thinking about it. We're at
7-1-3 right now I think. If we lynch the scum in the cop claims it's either
7-0-3 or 7-1-2
Assuming worst case (7-1-2) then tonight we could be looking at 3KP if DriveBy was used...making
4-1-2
So the game isn't OVER, per se, but we're definitely in a bad situation assuming scum kill the real cop and 2 of the confirmed town (Me/rayn/Oats if Koshi is cop, Me/Wave if s0L is cop)
If we lynch NEITHER cop claimer today, the math is actually better for us tonight.
Again, scum is either dealing with having to protect solstice OR dealing with an extra protect FROM solstice onto town
If austinmcc were scum with solstice, I would totally expect that the math would be correct, otherwise why would they go for it in the first place? That makes sense if they were both scum. But what if austinmcc was town? Would he support lynching outside of solstice? Personally, after I read the entire argument of why solstice is cop, it was still fairly obvious to me that solstice is the mafia, and I think it was fairly obvious to everyone else as well. But what happens if we leave them both alive? That would mean Koshi would probably die. Koshi's choices are to block KP, shoot solstice, bus solstice, or bus a random. Scum can shoot Koshi, shoot someone else, or shoot solstice in anticipation of a bus. For Koshi, blocking KP would only stall one turn in favor of scum, so that shouldn't be an option. Shooting solstice would leave him vulnerable to the bangers. Bussing with solstice leaves him vulnerable to the scum shooting solstice. Bussing with a random person would be countered by the scum shooting someone at random. Koshi will probably have to bus himself no matter what. No matter what option Koshi does, it will either be a coinflip or it will be bad for town. In all scenarios, either Koshi dies, or a few town die.
Just to sum that up, here's what I think the scum plan was:
1. Push for lynching someone other than Koshi and solstice
2. Since austinmcc is directing the vote, it will probably end up being a town, so 1 town lynched
3. During nighttime, either shoot solstice to gamble on a bus, or take the safe option and shoot VE, rayn, or oats. The other scumteam will probably shoot someone else. Since there may have been a driveby, someone else could die as well. As a result, that's up to 4 town dead at this point (one from lynch, and then 3 KP). Personally, if I was scum, I would take the safe option and shoot someone else. With VE's vest blown, and Koshi outed as cop, there's no reason for anyone else to use vest. Perfect night for a slaughter.
4. At this point, there is a very high chance that scum will win
Okay, onto the second scenario where solstice does get lynched, which is what happened.
Soltice gets lynched, CC looks good from it because he outed a scum. Austin's alignment is still neutral, despite opposing the solstice lynch. Now let's look a bit more into CC and see why he's on the same scumteam as solstice.
After he outed solstice, all his posts were very dismissive. A lot of other people were actively engaging information, but most of CC's posts were like this:
Show nested quote +On October 06 2013 11:40 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
I didn't bait because fuck that. Yolo kill this scum bastard.
DID HE JUST CLAIM COP LEL
Show nested quote +On October 06 2013 11:43 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
You take your votes, and put them on s0lstice.
Show nested quote +On October 06 2013 13:29 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Guys, I'd like to claim cop. S0lstice is mafia fakeclaiming and Koshi is town fakeclaiming it looks like. I'm cop seriously.
If you read through his filter, it's like he's clearly certain that solstice is the mafia and he's unwilling to obtain more information to change his mind. It was actually other people directing the discussion on solstice. Let's look at things from CC's position for a second. If CC is actually town, the first thing I would do is to wait around to get more information. Solstice said to standby. The information coming up would be about what night actions they are going to do, and maybe it would reveal what scumteam that solstice is on. There are plenty of ways that waiting for more information can be more helpful to town. But CC outed solstice right away. This doesn't make sense from a strategic perspective. Let's also look at how he responded. If I was CC, I would totally be excited about the whole thing and lead the interrogation on solstice. However we see the opposite. CC was basically just standing on the sidelines pitching in heckles. That doesn't make sense to me if CC was town. Now let's look at it if CC was mafia. That could totally work, because the naturally behavior for CC would be to be purely dismissive of solstice, and limit involvement. That would be the most obvious way to try to distance yourself from solstice the most, and prevent the worst case scenario where you make yourself seem to friendly with solstice. So my behavioral analysis is that CC is on the same scumteam as solstice.
My last read is on VA. I had thought all along that he's scum, but not sure on which scumteam. Tbh, back when I posted the few reads I had on VA, they might have been good indications on why VA is more likely scum than anyone else, but right now, 'more likely' is not good enough. But I can't really pull off my tunnel onto VA simply because his defense was that anyone who believes me is an idiot. It would be the incorrect play for me to let him come away as town with that kind of defense. Reading through his filter, he is still very scummy, and with the current information we have now, I don't feel comfortable lynching him yet, but I would definitely like to focus more on him after we see who dies during the night phase.
EPT
Definitely won't be joining another mafia game until I have more free time.
