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On October 09 2013 06:03 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2013 06:01 austinmcc wrote:
VA, the biggest thing in your favor based on the flips isn't you and CR being on a team, it's the people that got got.
I honestly expected to see shots at 2-3 of Koshi/VE/WoS. That leaves scum and people trying to push a mislynch on me, whether you're town or scum.
The fact that those WEREN'T the kills means that I'm not being set up as much as I think, and increases the chances of CC over you, because the kill went on OATS. Oats getting killed ensures maximum pissing match between you/people who think you're town and me/people who think i'm town/might be town. Logic is flawed - no one is being setup for lynch today because CR is the lynch today regardless what happens. Yaya. It doesn't say today.
But scum could have eliminated a side of the debate, or tried to, and then we'd lynch CR without anyone really giving reads on him, so the topic of discussion would be either how much VA or I was scum, without much in the way of rebuttal.
Instead, both sides up and oats gone. Indicates that scum is fine with another day of argument, rather than just piling on one side, and that they don't care who would eventually get lynched betwixt the two of us.
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Cheesecake, what were you referencing in this post:On October 06 2013 00:58 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Final thought; S0lstice talking about mafia teams getting in contact with each other. Suspect as fuck.
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On October 10 2013 02:50 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Anyone except VisceraEyes, this is what i want you to do on N5, or at last on D6;
Wo is the last scum and why, considering these things:
(1) Solstice payphoning CC. How does the scum actions on D4 make sense regarding that happening?
(2) N4, and CR claiming scum, and the scum actions regarding that.
(3) D5, CR retracting from the scumclaim when seeing Pandain flip and then claiming scum again. The scum guys actions regarding that.
(4) It is clear that D4 onwards scum were bussing and bussing hard. Who is the last scum and why do their actions from D4 onwards make most sense from scum!pov?
VE: One of us is gonna die the next night. You, or if scum have 2 KP they might double stack me. Look closely into those answers, consider what i have said, and if it does make sense when you cross-reference that into other people's answers. If someone does not answer this post, lynch.If you're super mega concerned about these things, I'll focus on looking through them, but I'm reluctant to focus on why CR might have claimed/unclaimed/reclaimed scum and such over filters and who pushed who when. Especially earlier before all this began.
Whatever has been going on recently with solstice/CR claims, it's either (1) super orchestrated or (2) nonsensical (imo). I'd rather look at things before the point they went nuts.
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One question for me is whether s0lstice was legitimately trying to get Koshi lynched early after his claim. IF he's actually trying to push a Koshi-lynch, like really thinks he can do this, then he's gotta be making legitimate points.
Basically, he has a couple actual reads which we can't entirely trust, but also more situationally-oriented posts like this:On October 07 2013 02:50 s0Lstice wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 02:39 Koshi wrote:On October 07 2013 02:34 s0Lstice wrote:On October 07 2013 02:29 Koshi wrote:
The only thing I dont get is why s0lstice ever thought this would work. Like cc is town now or the other scumteam are honest and respectful mafia players. This means the pool of possible scummers get really small. I am almost feeling WoS&Austin same scumteam but that is really crazy.
Like you need 6 votes on me s0lstice. How was that ever going to work unless you had the entirr other scumteam working with you. Like why not try and yet cc lynched... It makes me think you.put all eggs in CC basket and then went full funzies for your last day. But then again, you would get lynched after me. So is this not against your wincon??? You dont win when I am lynched. You just make the other scumteam win...
So yeah. You play vs own wincon or.scumteams are teamed up atm.
Probably last...
I like when scumbags make my argument for me. There's a reason it's hard to find the scum motivation for this. Just humor me and tell me why you do this as scum. As completely illogical as it is. You are last banger and you try to lynch the real cop. How is this going to help your wincon? You agree there is no way? There wouldn't be much motivation for me to do it as the last banger. There is no scenario where it isn't suicide basically that I can see off-hand. That would mean if I am scum, it's gotta be the 3-man team. Even there, like I wasn't in a terrible spot. People suspected me but I don't think I was in any real danger. It doesn't even depend on how much control scum think they have on the game. In the end, if I am lying, I'm dead anyway so it's a one-for-one trade. So either scum feels fucked and they decide to do a bogus cop claim to....what end exactly? A TON would still have to go right for them to have a path to win. The cop would have to get lynched (unlikely), then the other team would need to cooperate (I think? need to look at numbers again) and they would need to miss vests. Or scum feels good and they decide to do an inefficient 1 for 1 trade despite feeling in control? He's scum. He's three man scum. He KNOWS he'll flip eventually and be outed. But is he trying to make sense with this post, be honest, and maybe get Koshi lynched? Or is the mindfuckery already beginning.
IF this reads legitimate to you, it implicates CC. Why would 3 man do this, why would they make the 1 for 1 trade if they feel in control? They wouldn't so there has to be another benefit. The benefit to VA/WoS/CC/me that came out of solstice's thing was that CC looked a little better for outing solstice.
If the mindfuck has already begun, can't trust it anyway.
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On October 10 2013 03:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Austin FYI none of you guys have pushed any of Solstice/CR/Pandain before N3 end (i mean really pushed -- i don't count some crappy votes or "cases" that were shit), besides Vayne labeling Pandain as scum as soon as Noire ended & Palmar flipped. Yeah, I agree with this statement.
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Or at least up through N3 I agree with that.
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On October 10 2013 03:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On October 10 2013 03:08 austinmcc wrote:One question for me is whether s0lstice was legitimately trying to get Koshi lynched early after his claim. IF he's actually trying to push a Koshi-lynch, like really thinks he can do this, then he's gotta be making legitimate points. Basically, he has a couple actual reads which we can't entirely trust, but also more situationally-oriented posts like this: On October 07 2013 02:50 s0Lstice wrote:On October 07 2013 02:39 Koshi wrote:On October 07 2013 02:34 s0Lstice wrote:On October 07 2013 02:29 Koshi wrote:
The only thing I dont get is why s0lstice ever thought this would work. Like cc is town now or the other scumteam are honest and respectful mafia players. This means the pool of possible scummers get really small. I am almost feeling WoS&Austin same scumteam but that is really crazy.
Like you need 6 votes on me s0lstice. How was that ever going to work unless you had the entirr other scumteam working with you. Like why not try and yet cc lynched... It makes me think you.put all eggs in CC basket and then went full funzies for your last day. But then again, you would get lynched after me. So is this not against your wincon??? You dont win when I am lynched. You just make the other scumteam win...
So yeah. You play vs own wincon or.scumteams are teamed up atm.
Probably last...
I like when scumbags make my argument for me. There's a reason it's hard to find the scum motivation for this. Just humor me and tell me why you do this as scum. As completely illogical as it is. You are last banger and you try to lynch the real cop. How is this going to help your wincon? You agree there is no way? There wouldn't be much motivation for me to do it as the last banger. There is no scenario where it isn't suicide basically that I can see off-hand. That would mean if I am scum, it's gotta be the 3-man team. Even there, like I wasn't in a terrible spot. People suspected me but I don't think I was in any real danger. It doesn't even depend on how much control scum think they have on the game. In the end, if I am lying, I'm dead anyway so it's a one-for-one trade. So either scum feels fucked and they decide to do a bogus cop claim to....what end exactly? A TON would still have to go right for them to have a path to win. The cop would have to get lynched (unlikely), then the other team would need to cooperate (I think? need to look at numbers again) and they would need to miss vests. Or scum feels good and they decide to do an inefficient 1 for 1 trade despite feeling in control? He's scum. He's three man scum. He KNOWS he'll flip eventually and be outed. But is he trying to make sense with this post, be honest, and maybe get Koshi lynched? Or is the mindfuckery already beginning. IF this reads legitimate to you, it implicates CC. Why would 3 man do this, why would they make the 1 for 1 trade if they feel in control? They wouldn't so there has to be another benefit. The benefit to VA/WoS/CC/me that came out of solstice's thing was that CC looked a little better for outing solstice. If the mindfuck has already begun, can't trust it anyway. The question is do you think if it's legitmate or not? And why? I have already given my analysis of the situation and tbh you look the worst given this Solstice thing because of your "do not lynch into the cops plan". We now know it in fact was a bus. Which kinda bus it was and why? Did scum want Solstice lynched, CC gain town credit from it because of the payphone? If so, why? Did CC need town credit? I want you to tell me this, not ask questions. I have given scenarios that make sense to me, and WoS & Vayne do not fit into those scenarios. On D5 i have given my analysis on CR and why he claimed scum, and it fits into my analysis from D4. Why am i wrong? What am i missing? I know i am right on the fact that it was a plan by the scum team, and the plan was to keep Pandain alive for the extra KP. You can't deny that, or if you will, tell me why? Why would scum out themselves when there are at least one confirmed townie + 1 unconfirmed person who will push Pandain lynch on D4? What gives? How do scum benefit from outing themselves? Not only once but twice. What's the point of CR retracting from his scumclaim on D5? Pandain flipped, that's the obvious reason. If you disagree with this, why? And why would he claim scum again later on? What's the point of not fighting? I have answers, but i can't say i am 100% sure. I know one of you has the answers because one of you is scum. I want to see what you make of the situation because at this poinst there is going to be 6 different analysis and only one of them is from scum. I want to analyze the scenarios to have a better overall view of how different people engage these situations and why. How is the solstice lynch a bus? Like, the only person that could "bus" solstice is CC making a fake payphone claim.
As far as the rest of the game, half you guys weren't willing to consider that solstice COULD be the cop, so what does scum gain from "bussing" like that? EVERYONE is in a single pocket, there's no cred for x or y except for cc.
If the goal is to bus solstice, then I DON'T make sense, because you seem to think I came out looking WORSE for the day. You're suggesting that, if I'm scum, our team decided we would toss away solstice and that I would play to look scummier for the day. That's not a bus, in my mind. And it's not a bus for WoS or VA, because they don't come out looking particularly anti-solstice there. If you actually think bus, you think CC, imo.
Honestly, CR either claims to keep the other team alive OR because the claim/unclaim thing looks very much like his town games. The reason he got lynched in town games is fake votes on people he thinks are town, to see if scum will try to mislynch those guys, and little tricks like that.
It was a little late in the game to suddenly do that, but...the claim/unclaim thing is honestly the towniest-CR thing that CR has done. I don't think it's necessarily to confuse people or protect x or y, it may very well be because THAT POST looks like town CR, and he's not entirely wrong that scum has no reason to claim scum. So...I disagree with the premise that CR is claiming so as to protect or influence someone else, and I think it's more likely he's trying to protect himself.
Yes, the lynch was probably pandain or CR today, and his claim helps cement it on himself. And his unclaim and dick around fits either scenario - no way to protect pandain OR no more ability to make yourself look townie and get the lynch ON pandain.
Currently of the mindset that it's NOT scum trying to save pandain, because they were at 2-1, and if we lynch CR for claiming scum, teams are at 1-1. I don't think DRB wants to save Pandain so much that they're willing to sac their numbers advantage. They now are in a worse position relative to town AND the other mafia team. So I believe that CR's claim was for his own benefit, trying the claim/unclaim thing to try and appear town.
(Yes, you read that correctly)
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Still interested in this cheesecake
On October 10 2013 02:50 austinmcc wrote:Cheesecake, what were you referencing in this post: Show nested quote +On October 06 2013 00:58 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Final thought; S0lstice talking about mafia teams getting in contact with each other. Suspect as fuck.
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On October 10 2013 04:08 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Maybe scum wanted both of Sol/Koshi to live. No confirmed townies yet -> both live onto D5, noone except VE can be trusted. I do not know what happened. You can't say "people believed Koshi, that's why XYZ" because you do not know if people do believe Koshi over Sol before it happens. This is another suggestion that I'm mafia because I didn't want to lynch either cop.
I still fully disagree with how you think my idea of no cop lynching plays out. If scum let both sol/koshi live, then KOSHI SHOOTS SOLSTICE IN THE FACE LAST NIGHT. If solstice actually lives until the next night, it means scum had to sacrifice KP.
Like...if I'm mafia on that team, you're suggesting I: (1) suggest we not lynch koshi/solstice and instead lynch CR (WHO IS MY TEAMMATE) and (2) let Koshi either shoot solstice (my other teammate) OR spend KP to protect him. Why do I try and save teammate 1 by lynching teammate 2 while knowing that teammate 1 either dies or we lose KP, and if we ever kill Koshi, teammate 1 dies anyhow.
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On October 10 2013 04:10 raynpelikoneet wrote:
And the claim/unclaim thing is the scummies thing CR has done this game. 100%.
You are talking bullshit now Austin. If the dude has a reputation, which we've discussed all game, for making these weird scummy plays as town, then making a weird scummy play as a way to seem town is ON THE TABLE.
But when the scum teams are 2-1, I don't think that DRB sacrifices a member here to save the MCB. I would personally rather play 2-0, straight up against town, than town-1-1, knowing that EITHER side can kill me and I'm gone.
I find it more likely that CR does that stunt to try to save himself than someone else.
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rayn, no answer from cheesecake yet, so double check for me.
On October 06 2013 00:58 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Final thought; S0lstice talking about mafia teams getting in contact with each other. Suspect as fuck.
Find this talk.
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Or anybody else. I can't find any post cc would be referencing there.
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On October 10 2013 04:41 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am actually trying to make you guys give out your reads and try to interact with each other right now.
Noone is doing a good job atm.. Yeah, but your topic of choice is ... wonky.
Hey WoS! Let's chat! Massa says we gotta chat!
CR claims scum
Massive scum plot or CR plot to look townie? Go!
BONUS QUESTION: There's a 3 man scumteam that decides CHEESECAKE is the most likely mafia apart from them. solstice/CR/x. Fill in the x that believe Cheesecake is the most likely other scum OR the x that allows solstice to push Cheesecake as the most likely other scum.
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Other bros can answer the bonus question as well.
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On October 10 2013 05:03 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On October 10 2013 04:44 austinmcc wrote:
BONUS QUESTION: There's a 3 man scumteam that decides CHEESECAKE is the most likely mafia apart from them. solstice/CR/x. Fill in the x that believe Cheesecake is the most likely other scum OR the x that allows solstice to push Cheesecake as the most likely other scum.
To answer this question I'd need to know whether the CR claim is premeditated or not. Because that matters in the context of this question. I have currently been assuming that the CR claim was at the very least not so premeditated that it stretches back all the way to N3/start of D4.
At least to me, when I've got all 3 members alive and am like...a mislynch or two away from winning, I don't tell solstice to claim cop AND CR to claim scum, that's not my plan going into a day.
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On October 10 2013 05:04 VisceraEyes wrote:
Wait your assumption is that no, it wasn't...that it was circumstantial to Pandain flipping or some other factor we're not aware of correct? My current assumption is that the claim/unclaim was connected, not connected to Pandain. So planned, but not planned with regards to Pandain.
Only planned as a way of making CR look a little like his townie self. When your townie self gets lynched for weird scummy plays, scumyou can try to make weird scummy plays in order to try and seem town.
I DON'T think that it's planned all the way back to N3 though, see above.
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On October 10 2013 05:08 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On October 10 2013 05:06 austinmcc wrote:On October 10 2013 05:03 VisceraEyes wrote:On October 10 2013 04:44 austinmcc wrote:
BONUS QUESTION: There's a 3 man scumteam that decides CHEESECAKE is the most likely mafia apart from them. solstice/CR/x. Fill in the x that believe Cheesecake is the most likely other scum OR the x that allows solstice to push Cheesecake as the most likely other scum.
To answer this question I'd need to know whether the CR claim is premeditated or not. Because that matters in the context of this question. I have currently been assuming that the CR claim was at the very least not so premeditated that it stretches back all the way to N3/start of D4. At least to me, when I've got all 3 members alive and am like...a mislynch or two away from winning, I don't tell solstice to claim cop AND CR to claim scum, that's not my plan going into a day. Not on N3 or D4, but N4. If it's planned on N4, I don't THINK it affects my intentions with the possible payphone use or targeting.
What I'm more getting at is, IF the payphone thing is legit, who picks cheesecake? If it's not, it's fake anyway. CR's later claim doesn't factor into that for me, because by N4, the payphone thing has come and gone.
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On October 10 2013 05:12 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On October 10 2013 05:11 austinmcc wrote:On October 10 2013 05:08 raynpelikoneet wrote:On October 10 2013 05:06 austinmcc wrote:On October 10 2013 05:03 VisceraEyes wrote:On October 10 2013 04:44 austinmcc wrote:
BONUS QUESTION: There's a 3 man scumteam that decides CHEESECAKE is the most likely mafia apart from them. solstice/CR/x. Fill in the x that believe Cheesecake is the most likely other scum OR the x that allows solstice to push Cheesecake as the most likely other scum.
To answer this question I'd need to know whether the CR claim is premeditated or not. Because that matters in the context of this question. I have currently been assuming that the CR claim was at the very least not so premeditated that it stretches back all the way to N3/start of D4. At least to me, when I've got all 3 members alive and am like...a mislynch or two away from winning, I don't tell solstice to claim cop AND CR to claim scum, that's not my plan going into a day. Not on N3 or D4, but N4. If it's planned on N4, I don't THINK it affects my intentions with the possible payphone use or targeting. What I'm more getting at is, IF the payphone thing is legit, who picks cheesecake? If it's not, it's fake anyway. CR's later claim doesn't factor into that for me, because by N4, the payphone thing has come and gone. I dunno, who would pick CheeseCake? Bah. Says he wants us discussing stuff. Wants to cut the other people out of things.
I don't KNOW who would pick cheesecake.
If I'm mafia, and know that CR ISN'T the last banger, I probably pick WoS. See my discussion during N3, because of the way he avoids Palmar. I can also be kind of unwarrantedly bossy as scum, have more scum games than solstice, and would push contacting my target of choice over his.
If VA is mafia, he thinks Pandain is last MCB as best I can tell. His team would have contacted Pandain.
Both have been explicit enough that either it's a GIANT SUPER MEGA PLOT HOPING WE KEY IN ON THIS SINGLE THING, or we've been real in saying we suspect those bros.
So I think VA comes out looking less likely than cc for this, because his mafia team doesn't contact cc. Between cc and wos, I still like cc better, just don't love WoS for non-Palmar scum, but I'll poke around him more.
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yeah, solstice is on cheese for a bit.
Which i one reason I ask who solstice convinces cheese is the last MCB
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cuz if they're not same team, solstice convinces the other two to talk to cheese
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EPT
