EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XLVIII
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Zaragon
Sweden235 Posts
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Zaragon
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Anyone played with each other before? | ||
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Zaragon
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Besides, we don't even know who the lurkers are before late in the day, so I'm not sure your point makes sense. | ||
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Zaragon
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Anyway, I really need sleep. Try to push the lurkers into the open, please. If we make it a policy from the start, they won't get ideas. | ||
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Zaragon
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I'm all for lynching a scum read for information as first priority, but first we need scum reads, and to have scum reads we need people to type things. One of the few ways anyone is going to go after each other day one is based on their meta knowledge of each other, and in this game that only puts Bereft, Blurry and heavenz in the spotlight so far (unless someone has neglected to mention playing with each other, so far). In essence, we don't have good odds for hitting scum yet. We can try to produce active townies and posts from scum to read. So let's do that. | ||
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Zaragon
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Zaragon
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On September 26 2013 00:23 playerboy345 wrote: Why change the subject T_T this was a great subject to discuss and get everyone's opinion on the matter. I would love to hear everyone's opinion on it. But it's a newbie game and I would also like people to feel comfortable coming in discussing something else, not be completely put off by feeling like they're branded a lurker and need to talk about lurking. Honestly I care more about getting a good game going than making avenues of discussion that pressures lurkers too hard just to justify lurking. We only want them to contribute, about that or something else. On September 26 2013 00:25 heavenz wrote: here's our last newby game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=426146 Bereft and Blurry were town and I was mafia. So regarding Blurry, he's very reasonable, gives good imput, but keeps a rather conservative position. He was killed night1 so, I only know his day1 play. The spectators agreed that he was the "obvious" lynch choice, because he played good town (which wasn't that obvious to the players). I would expect of him to play a good townman here as well. Bereft has the right intention, but he was quite busy, so some decision came hasty. I would expect him to play active, calling players out who are not activly participating and pursuing town goals. So, assuming that both are town, I'ld say we have good chances. Even if they aren't town, and they are participating well it's an advantage. At a glance, you were pretty good scum and Blurry pretty good town, Bereft improving well. Good input. On September 26 2013 00:55 Balla24 wrote: This is my first game of any mafia. I used to play sc2 mafia but that really really doesn't count haha... I became interested in playing real mafia by watching eSports mafia on twitch.tv/koibu where a bunch of esports personalities (some from this forum) play games over skype. So all I really have is my knowledge from watching that for a bunch of weeks and then i've lurked in some threads before that. I've read up on a bunch of stuff in the stickies and what not for a while and i decided to dive into this one. I got into playing mafia the same way. I'm really tempted to ask and compare favorite players, but unfortunately that's against the rules under "off topic", I believe. Darn. | ||
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Zaragon
Sweden235 Posts
Meta reads based on Newbie XLVII: heavenz and Bereft are coming in the way I would expect them to (which gives Bereft a little town lean and heavenz, unfortunately, nothing). Blurry is coming in a bit too constructed with only a let's-set-the-playing-field post. I would have expected something that felt a little more natural. Fine post, and if it wasn't his entrance followed by nothing I'd place it just fine in his posting pattern as town. I'm not comfortable with it as is. playerboy345 feels towny so far No opinion on MLuneth. Actually, if he feels comfortable enough to throw that question out (and I think I can figure out what the question is actually asking), that's pretty towny to me by itself, just odd. I have no personality read on him as yet to back that up, though, so neutral to me. | ||
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Zaragon
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Zaragon
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On September 26 2013 16:26 MLuneth wrote: Time for my first scum read: heavenz I think he is scum because:
MLuneth, I don't agree with anything at all in that post. Feels like you're constructing a case; heavenz has been posting pro-town things. I suppose you could be town with a very early tunnel thought, but you feel scummy now. If you think you really have a case and you are town, go look at the previous newbie game linked and see if you notice something scummy heavenz was doing that he's replicating now. Barring that, I'm putting you in my top four scum. Blurry... still nothing. Could have real life explanations, but I have a bad feeling he rolled scum, started working on his first post being as pro town as possible, then realized he didn't know how to follow up as scum. I want to vote for him the most out of the lurkers, to be honest. Still nothing on the other two lurkers obviously. Better not overdevelop towny reads at the moment, need to reread thread and see if it'd be good or bad for town to try | ||
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Zaragon
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MLuneth or Blurry IMO. Xlvanj is just a policy lynch, Jayte said something half-way decent that is non-indicative to me. MLuneth is trying to make cases that simply contradict pro town play, as if he's against contribution or meta information and talking about "clogging up" a thread that is only 9 pages as I'm writing this. It needs more contribution, not less. Blurry I want to see write, and give a thought process behind his first post. And input on MLuneth. Currently, ##Vote Blurry | ||
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Zaragon
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If Blurry shows up or there is any good town case on MLuneth, I would like to switch to a lurker at the end. But MLuneth's play is scummiest so far, Blurry's only very meta-scummy. | ||
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Zaragon
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Zaragon
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On September 27 2013 04:05 JonnyLaw wrote: + Show Spoiler [Blurry] + His first post was good but not enough to give any read. I really hope he contributes something soon because his lack of participation is hurting the game and his chances of surviving the lynch. + Show Spoiler [playerboy345] + He's been active in trying to move discussion forward throughout the game. Feels okay to me for now. + Show Spoiler [heavenz] + heavenz willingness to question people's reads puts him out there more than he may want at this point if he was scum. Again, seems all right to keep around for now. He's contributing and trying to force slips out of people. + Show Spoiler [onlywonderboy] + owb I've read most of your LOL material. You can write and critically think. WHAT did you like about playerboy's analysis in particular? What are your opinions on the other twelve players in this game? I'm not liking the read I'm getting here. + Show Spoiler [stormtemplar] + stormtemplar is looking scummy to me. He writes a lot and yet says nothing. He's basically said he agrees zaragon might be town, he doesn't know about playerboy and death to all lurkers while telling others to contribute more to the thread. He's trying to misdirect and confuse discussion rather than forwarding it which I do not care for. + Show Spoiler [Zaragon] + Zaragon has been making similar reads to my own throughout the game and pushing for strong participation. He definitely feels more town than many others in the game. His willingness to focus on particular people could mean he's trying to get attention away from himself and the rest of the mafia but for now it's too early to say. I give him the benefit of the doubt. + Show Spoiler [Balla24] + Balla24 reads fairly town. He's been agreeing with heavenz and Zaragon whom I also like for the town. I could be getting fooled here and there are two mafia in their threesome. For now, there's better options to lynch though. + Show Spoiler [xIvanJ is useless] + One outta 13 aint too bad boys. Hopefully our replacement can play. + Show Spoiler [Jayte] + Could be lurking as a mafia. I just can't read him from the level of content he's put out. + Show Spoiler [MLuneth] + I want to call this guy scum from my gut. I really, really want to do it. But re-reading his posts just make me think he's a bit hasty and not scum at all. There are grammatical errors, shortened words and that half written post he managed to post. I dunno, he doesn't feel like mafia at this point in the game. + Show Spoiler [BajaBlood] + Hasn't said a lot. Could be leaning mafia, but he's okay for now. + Show Spoiler [bereft] + I know he said he'd be busy but why is no one mentioning his inactivity? Still, not the best candidate for a lynch. Okay here's my summation. Blurry, bereft (who did say he would be busy), Jayte and xIvanJ are inactive. I still think we should look for a better lynch candidate for today. I like zaragon, balla24 and heavenz contribution but I might be getting fooled because they seem to agree quite often. But hell, they're reasonable opinions. Time to see where people cast their votes. I've read through stormtemplar's posts multiple times now. He literally says nothing in them. Clogging conversation after being accused of being scum. I disagree and he's just trying to change the focus away from himself. Until he puts up a better defense of himself #vote stormtemplar I don't see where your Stormtemplar read comes from, nothing much was happening and he commented on my reads, adding his own. I do want to hear more from him, but people contributing well (and I think he is, relatively speaking, I don't mind thick paragraphs) are usually not good day 1 lynches. I want more to read him on, and he will give enough to see reasonably clearly whether he's scum when we have flips and roles to go on. Hmm BajaBlood's vote is a cop-out I think, on none of the current targets. Hard to read busy people (since they could be busy deliberately as scum). Will look at him more as well. I'll pattern read MLuneth again too; too comfortable to be scum was enough for me to explain the way he posts, at first, but then thinking about the structured post that basically just disagreed with pro-town play as a read, he's most scummy to me. I'll pattern read him again, but I still think he's a good lynch, up there with Blurry | ||
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Zaragon
Sweden235 Posts
MLuneth is the only person who has posted considerable amounts that I would vote for. I don't know if he's bad town or scum either, it's strange to assert himself like he does as either town or scum and then not to be responding now. Feels like scum constructing a case and dropping off at suspicions. I wanted to push Blurry to contribute, he hasn't. I'm comfortable switching off him for now since he doesn't even seem to be coming in to vote. ##Vote MLuneth | ||
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Zaragon
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Ok time to read some filters. | ||
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Zaragon
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On September 26 2013 19:24 playerboy345 wrote: So my opinions after gazing through filters: + Show Spoiler [onlywonderboy] + He has added nothing to the game by far, his posts are just one-liners which are basically useless posts. Hopefully we'll hear some more of him soon + Show Spoiler [Zaragon] + The one thing I found a bit odd was that he clothed his opinions on MLuneth and heavenz/Bereft with arguments but the only thing he said about me was that I feel towny. I'm wondering why he didn't back this up with arguments like he did with the other cases. Overall I think he is town, but not using arguments and just saying "he feels town" is a bit weird in my opinion. (It feels so wrong to be suspicious of someone who called you town T_T) + Show Spoiler [stormtemplar] + I think he is town, he made himself very clear on the lurker subject and asked me to elaborate when I wasn't clear enough. He also questioned the same thing I did - Zaragon not using arguments on his opinion of me. I haven't read anything of him yet that I could even consider a scumread, he just tries to force information out of others, like: Also, with you all on Jaytee. Where'd he go? He was clearly here, so why the disappearance? Simply going inactive is a classic inexperienced mafia behavior, and at best he's an inactive townie, which is not good for us. Obviously he's done nothing scummy, but doing nothing is itself kinda scummy. He needs to show up and post so we can get some reads. + Show Spoiler [Jayte] + Only an one-liner so far, and a highly suspicious (imo) one at that + Show Spoiler [JonnyLaw] + I got nothing on him so far. + Show Spoiler [heavenz] + On September 26 2013 16:58 heavenz wrote: onlywounderboy: only oneliners, while I am not against one liners at all, just writing 1 liners lacks much content. He tries to show activness even though he has no content, perhaps he didn't know what to write in the beginning. Now after 24h you should write more than 1 liners. Zaragon: has my strongest town read so far. Blurry is really falling behind expectation, that's weird. You really should post more. lurkers:Jayte, xIvanJ You both have to participate way more. I agree with you on onlywonderboy. BUT the bolded part makes me a bit suspicious, you say Zaragon has your strongest town tell but you say nothing to back it up, same goes for Blurry. Please elaborate on this when you can. + Show Spoiler [MLuneth] + On September 26 2013 14:57 MLuneth wrote: On my question, I'm a curious guy! I got lynched d3 and it's been several months since I last played, so I might be a little sketchy on some rules. What made you think it was a good idea to ask it in this thread? Wouldn't it make you an easy target for mafia or am I missing something here? And why are you going balls deep on heavenz? That's a pretty gutsy move. Your last posts basically says "I want to lynch heavenz!" without having a shitton of evidence to back it up with. + Show Spoiler [Bereft] + I got nothing on him so far. + Show Spoiler [Blurry] + His only post so far is on the lurker subject, it's not quite enough for me to have a tell on him. + Show Spoiler [BajaBlood] + On September 26 2013 02:48 BajaBlood wrote: Yeah, it's the shortest post so far, but I don't think he's alone in not having contributed any substance yet (myself included). Hopefully we'll start to see more contributions as our discussions turn more in this direction. Moving into discussions like this is probably more productive than the policy lynch, though - at least the guides say so  On September 26 2013 09:51 BajaBlood wrote: Not terribly impressed that this is the only post so far from this player... Asking for mercy on lurkers then proceeding to post nothing else. First he defends Jayte for having only one/a short post with no content and then he proceeds to attack xIvanJ for having only one post with no content. Am I the only one who thinks that's SUPER suspicious? I'll keep an eye on BajaBlood and Jayte for now. + Show Spoiler [Balla24] + Don't got much on him so far, but nothing scummy. Like this post: On September 26 2013 11:37 Balla24 wrote: I'm not really getting any bad vibes from anybody at this point. Really need to hear from the less talkative people at this point to get a read off of them. As far as town reads I'm liking Zaragon for sure, and maybee Bereft. Both of them have been quite active in trying to move the discussion forward and providing their reads. They have also been looking into other's past games which i think is quite helpful for us. We just really need to hear from the quiet ones at this point though, they are really stalling the game and it's been a whole 24 hours. Some people have 1/2 posts only and have been quite weird. If we're not going to hear from them though, i'd like to hear a bit more from Heavenz now that some time has passed, maybe there are more insights about how people are acting first day compared to that last game they played together. Blurry specifically, as his opening post -> sudden quietness is worrying from what I hear so far about his play. Looks town to me. + Show Spoiler [xIvanJ] + Only a one-liner so far, he has to post more. It feels like a small detail to base a town read on, especially since some of the things I've heard on the Stormtemplar case were concerns I had marked in my mind to look into over time. Also, the explanation feels contrived and worded overly strongly. Note playerboy's comment on Stormtemplar here: "He also questioned the same thing I did - Zaragon not using arguments on his opinion of me. I haven't read anything of him yet that I could even consider a scumread, he just tries to force information out of others, like: " This, with a quote of what I actually consider the fluffiest part I've seen from Stormtemplar: "Also, with you all on Jaytee. Where'd he go? He was clearly here, so why the disappearance? Simply going inactive is a classic inexperienced mafia behavior, and at best he's an inactive townie, which is not good for us. Obviously he's done nothing scummy, but doing nothing is itself kinda scummy. He needs to show up and post so we can get some reads." Looking into both of them now. Rethinking my personality read on playerboy a bit and rereading him. He also seemed quite certain at the last minute that we would see a green/blue flip: On September 27 2013 06:58 playerboy345 wrote: I'm not too comfortable with the MLuneth lynch to be honest, I really don't get that much of a scum read from him :/ Possible sign of information advantage used to gain town credit, at that timing. Have a lot of rereading to do, might not get through it tonight | ||
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Zaragon
Sweden235 Posts
On September 27 2013 11:15 Bereft wrote: here's my thought dump. zaragon: + Show Spoiler + looking at his filter, right now he reads very pro-town, as he seems to be making an effort to keep the thread on track and provide transparency on his opinions and thought process on current players. BUT i do find his voting incongruous: On September 26 2013 04:24 Zaragon wrote: No opinion on MLuneth. Actually, if he feels comfortable enough to throw that question out (and I think I can figure out what the question is actually asking), that's pretty towny to me by itself, just odd. I have no personality read on him as yet to back that up, though, so neutral to me. i was surprised that he of all people led the bandwagon on mluneth as i took the above comment as him interpreting mluneth's question to mean that he was vig. in addition, i find it odd that he says this: On September 27 2013 03:22 Zaragon wrote: EBWOP: For clarity, I would like to push for Blurry right now since MLuneth is still participating, but I don't want us to set our votes on Blurry and not be able to change them if he comes in with good points. but then right at the last minute switches his vote to mluneth. On September 27 2013 06:40 Zaragon wrote: Got caught up in an intriguing conversation with a friend, now the hour is late. MLuneth is the only person who has posted considerable amounts that I would vote for. I don't know if he's bad town or scum either, it's strange to assert himself like he does as either town or scum and then not to be responding now. Feels like scum constructing a case and dropping off at suspicions. I wanted to push Blurry to contribute, he hasn't. I'm comfortable switching off him for now since he doesn't even seem to be coming in to vote. ##Vote MLuneth please shed some light on what made you change your mind from voting for a lurker to an "active" participant. you initially say you prefer to vote for mluneth because he's still participating, but later change your vote because he disappeared from the thread while blurry didn't post anything either. i noticed you used the same argument when you FOS'ed blurry earlier in the day: On September 27 2013 01:53 Zaragon wrote: so would like to hear your explanation. i really want to believe you're town, but this contradicting behavior makes me wary.Blurry... still nothing. Could have real life explanations, but I have a bad feeling he rolled scum, started working on his first post being as pro town as possible, then realized he didn't know how to follow up as scum. I want to vote for him the most out of the lurkers, to be honest. heavenz: + Show Spoiler + town lean as well, for the moment. he's actively calling players out, applying pressure, and not afraid to share his opinions. will have no issue with him if he keeps up the current behavior. balla24 + Show Spoiler + this guy's coming off somewhat town atm. initially this post brought up a red flag: On September 26 2013 11:37 Balla24 wrote: I'm not really getting any bad vibes from anybody at this point. Really need to hear from the less talkative people at this point to get a read off of them. As far as town reads I'm liking Zaragon for sure, and maybee Bereft. Both of them have been quite active in trying to move the discussion forward and providing their reads. They have also been looking into other's past games which i think is quite helpful for us. We just really need to hear from the quiet ones at this point though, they are really stalling the game and it's been a whole 24 hours. Some people have 1/2 posts only and have been quite weird. If we're not going to hear from them though, i'd like to hear a bit more from Heavenz now that some time has passed, maybe there are more insights about how people are acting first day compared to that last game they played together. Blurry specifically, as his opening post -> sudden quietness is worrying from what I hear so far about his play. while i agree that it's hard to have a good scum read on someone at that point, he brings nothing new to this table with this post. all he says is we need to hear from the inactives. his comment on blurry seems to merely be an echo of what i (and zaragon i believe) said before. he posts some analysis afterwards which assuages some of my suspicious, but later on, like zaragon, also changes his mind from voting inactives to a more active scum read. not too apprehensive of this player at the moment, but i would like to hear his analysis on the current players. brb gonna shower then read the rest of the filters Lots of little things went wrong. I'll break down my thought process: I did read MLuneth as soft-claiming a role and wanted to draw attention away from it at first. That's partly why my instinct later went "huh, I've stopped paying attention to this guy since I'm just hoping he'll live through the night... and those things he's saying make absolutely no sense. But he's trying really hard to make a case with those things. Makes sense for that mindset to use the question to protect himself as scum." Suddenly why I wanted to keep him safe became why I really thought he was scum playing badly rather than town playing badly. No response felt like scum slipping under radar. He'd have had plenty of time to make any kind of defense, unfortunately he was never around again. With the voting too. Blurry's opening post could be just pure newbie-friendliness, but it was clearly constructed whether he's town or scum, and he put it out there only to disappear (looks like he's back now). No explanation about being away or some such, just that block of what amounts to gameplay advice. I wanted to put some serious pressure on him since I read up on his last game, and have hopes for him as a strong town or a dangerous scum. That'd be how to figure out which, when the opening post was what it was. So I wanted to push Blurry, see what his alignment was, then either stay or go back on MLuneth. Neither player even appeared... So much for either part of that plan. Up to you what you actually think of the plan. I'm berating myself for the mistake, though I'm not sure I even should: I firmly believe it would've been good play if I had any counter-push or at least activity from Blurry or MLuneth. Both were scummy and I expected both to be readable when pressured. I've gone back to look at playerboy and Stormtemplar. Just the one oddity, but would like it explained by playerboy. onlywonderboy give us reads please. | ||
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Zaragon
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On September 27 2013 16:22 playerboy345 wrote: What do you mean with fluffy? English is not my first language and I really don't understand what the hell that word has to do in that sentence >.< There were more people who didn't agree with the MLuneth lynch, in my opinion he really didn't seem all that scummy, I was expecting him to flip town which was why I was against voting him. There wasn't really a good case on him other then his posts being odd. Would love to hear from you when you're done rereading me, I'll gladly defend anything you throw at me. Thank god I'm not the only one that thinks onlywonderboy is suspicious/stormtemplar doesn't look that scummy. I was getting worried :/ I'll look into BajaBlood's filter later today. So far I'm really suspicious of onlywonderboy, his last few posts aren't that good, they add nothing to the table, he said he would post reads after rereading everything/waking up so I'm interested to see what he will provide us with. Sorry for the half-assed post, I just woke up and getting ready to go to school, will probably be able to post during the whole day. People like to use "fluff" for long phrases that don't say much, I use "fluffy" as an adjective as a joke in Mafia games because I feel it's kinder (cute animal associations; yes, I'm weird). Good, you fit with my town image of you again from this post, too much about you tells me "town eager to solve the game" for anything else at this point. A language quirk is enough to explain the oddity I found. onlywonderboy, please give us something. Don't be careful. Since you're new and not sure what you should be typing or not, it's better to type more, concise thoughts about the game. People will be picking at your phrasings, but we will assume you're scum if you don't say much, don't give reads, and write constructed posts. That's how a lot of scum play. I'd say the same to Stormtemplar by now. And our lurkers. | ||
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Zaragon
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I'm concerned about JonnyLaw now too. He's reading very tense to me. Worried about lurker pressure at the start--very worried very fast, I don't see the reason for that. Joining the Stormtemplar case with very nitpicky points to substantiate his case. Joining my case on MLuneth at the end doesn't mean anything, unfortunately, unless we would know Stormtemplar and MLuneth were both town or that someone besides heavenz was protecting Blurry. Balla, Baja are reading neutral to me at this point. | ||
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Zaragon
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But I will note, listing opinions on all the players is just a tool. Please don't use it as a crutch, everyone. A lot of the time it's better to phrase yourself shorter and with more focus; helps others read you. Scum can hide behind lists pretty easily by just casting slight suspicion on town and softening anything they would have found suspicious about fellow scum so it has no edge to it. Lists don't put much pressure on anyone so it lets you omit a scum buddy very easily. | ||
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On September 28 2013 06:57 playerboy345 wrote: So I've been reading through this thread once again and I saw something that striked me as odd and wanted to post it here and hear your thoughts on it. These three vote for Blurry, why? Zaragon votes him based on Blurry's meta. In the previous game Blurry had a good opening post much like in this game, the difference between this game and the previous game is that in the previous game Blurry continued to contribute and in the current game he didn't. This is just such an easy thing to pick on - the reason that he hasn't really contributed that much is because he has been inactive. onlywonderboy picks it as a safe bet because he won't be able to be online for the deadline. I don't understand why Balla24 is voting for Blurry here though, he didn't seem all that interested in Blurry before, so why pick him over Jayte/xIvanJ who are just as inactive as Blurry. Why is Zaragon comfortable with switching his vote? He says it's because Blurry doesn't seem to be coming to vote. Guess who else didn't come to vote? MLuneth. So why change your vote? Why not just keep it on Blurry as your case seems to be the same on both of them? Also: In this post you claim you read his post as soft-claiming vigi. WHY THE HELL WOULD YOU EVER VOTE FOR HIM IF YOU HAD EVEN THE SLIGHTEST DOUBT THAT HE COULD BE A VIGI? This makes 0 sense to me, no fucking clue what you were thinking here. Why didn't you just leave your vote on Blurry if that was the case? Also note that Balla24 switches his vote to MLuneth aswell. He says he's the only suspicious person besides the afkers, while I can agree that his posting was indeed odd, it doesn't explain his sudden switch. He agrees with BajaBlood: What BajaBlood says is don't lynch MLuneth because if he is scum it'll be easy to tell. WHY DO YOU VOTE HIM IF YOU AGREE THAT LETTING HIM LIVE FOR ANOTHER DAY WILL MAKE IT EASY TO TELL IF HE IS SCUM OR NOT? I'm sorry but that just makes absolutely 0 sense to me. onlywonderboy: You say Blurry flew under the radar for you and that is why you voted him. Then what about the other inactives, you are not gonna tell me they didn't flew under the radar, right? So why DID you vote for Blurry? Were you in a hurry because you had to leave and left with a half-assed post? Or did you just decide to vote for him because your mafia teammates (assuming both Balla24 and Zaragon are scum) did so you could boost the votes in your favor? I don't got much proof and this is basically just theorycrafting but I think Zaragon/Balla24/onlywonderboy might be our scum combo. Let me know what you guys think. I said from the start I might want to swap back to MLuneth. I explained my plan of pressuring Blurry and MLuneth, and I stand by that I felt both were scummy. As I said the plan collapsed because neither of them came in to say a thing or even vote. I never even considered MLuneth might not show up for it, and I only thought it was a remote possibility Blurry might not. What was I supposed to do in that situation? Imagine you had the same reads and the same plan. I thought MLuneth was mafia. I was sure I could town-read him early in a defense under pressure, if he was just bad town. What was my motivation as scum to swap my vote? It doesn't make sense. I could've NKed MLuneth if I had been scum and role-read him. I play with incomplete information as town, and made a mistake (again, largely because these players didn't even show up to play the game). Your post, again, is something oddly timed right as night phase was ending, but I'm not sure yet what else to read into it. I'd welcome input on both you and myself. | ||
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Zaragon
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Except everyone didn't even vote. I'm trying to figure out how significant this is. On Bereft dying, it was probably a good kill since he looked very towny, did stick on Jayte in the voting fiasco and might not be a doctor save. | ||
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Zaragon
Sweden235 Posts
On September 28 2013 08:25 JonnyLaw wrote: The more I read playerboy345's filter the more I think he is mafioso. Let me start from a couple days ago. In his write up on the players he claims + Show Spoiler [stormtemplar] + I think he is town, he made himself very clear on the lurker subject and asked me to elaborate when I wasn't clear enough. He also questioned the same thing I did - Zaragon not using arguments on his opinion of me. I haven't read anything of him yet that I could even consider a scumread, he just tries to force information out of others. At this point stormtemplar is yet to be confronted by anyone. Yet storm and playerboy casually agree with each other on a few points later. This means nothing if you think stormtemplar is town, which I do not believe. Fine, more evidence for you non-believers. He drops this subject and even goes so far as to praise bereft for his good read on onlywonderboy a few short hours later. I feel like he's trying to lay the blame elsewhere when bereft comes up dead in the morning. In bereft's last reads he's pressuring balla slightly and pushing playerboy a little bit. A couple posts ago I said myself as well but I was wrong when I reread the lines. All of this combined with his very timely post before we lynched MLuneth make me very suspicious. Note that was posted two minutes before the deadline. He had three other posts in the thirty minutes prior so clearly he was around at the lynch deadline and only chose to express his opinion once it was too late and did not elaborate as to why he felt that way. Oh yeah, that onlywonderboy vote was odd when clearly he was not going to be lynched. There was time to jump on the blurry bandwagon easily. This may have swayed people to stay on blurry instead of going to MLuneth. It just doesn't add up. Zaragon expressed his views on why lynching MLuneth more articulately than I managed. Where he felt like blurry was a good pressure target, I felt similarly with stormtemplar. Blurry was never active so I didn't see an incentive to push him. Storm had been fairly active so I still think I had a very good target for pressure and lynching if he did not respond well enough. When the time came, not enough of you agreed with me. This is a good case, you substantiated the oddity from before with a lot more meat that I missed. I also noticed in his filter that he pointedly asks people to elaborate on town reads, and pressures them for not doing so. How does that help town? It puts targets on people's backs. "I'm leaning/feeling town" is good enough to say you currently like someone's posting/opinions/motivations/emotions, and giving more is often actually not very good for town. Pressuring people about town reads, I don't see how that helps town. Someone having too strong town reads--playerboy on Stormtemplar based on little, but carefully pushed little--is much more of a scum tell. Sign of knowing this person is town, or protecting a scum team mate. My read on you JonnyLaw is significantly less scummy now, and playerboy significantly more. | ||
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Been looking at Bereft, could have been on to playerboy and/or Stormtemplar. Looking into Balla right now. onlywonderboy who Bereft didn't like then, I had the same issues with, but he provided decent content when pressured. Neutral for me. | ||
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Baja had a good contribution about MLuneth: On September 27 2013 06:53 BajaBlood wrote: Yes, in his other game (as scum) he was very sheepy early on until he started getting accused, then got aggresively defensive (think the word they used in the thread was 'shitflinging', lol). Whereas in this game, he's making reads right off the bat and playing much more in-your-face. I think his heavenz read was terrible, and a number of his other posts (including the question) are bizzare, but I'm not reading it as scum yet. Plus if we keep him around and he is in fact scum I think we'll have an easier time classifying him then some other players If it had been just a little earlier than 7 minutes before the deadline, I think it would've saved MLuneth from lynch. | ||
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On September 28 2013 14:52 Balla24 wrote: Alright, I wasn't posting to let the stormtemplar/jonnylaw conversation continue a little while. I wasn't digging stormtemplar for mafia, and i'm still not really sure. He responds to jonnylaw's pressure well IMO. I don't think he seemed angry and he brings up the point of him bussing playerboy early on (if both were mafia). I want to bring up the first posts of his where he brings up playerboy: + Show Spoiler + However, as to your point about me just joining Zaragon on playerboy, no, not at all. As a matter of fact, I'm not really feeling zaragon's read on him. I'm not getting solid town vibes out of him at all. He's contributed rather minimally. (7 of his posts are 1-2 lines with maybe a quote.) This is his one good post, but it's not really doing much more then throwing around short opinions on jonnylaw's reads. There is that one bit of really weird logic at the end (It's scum because any non-scum asking that question must be a town roleblocker, therefore they wouldn't post it? Kinda shaky and weird.) This is after he has been pressured by Heavenz already a little bit. He appears neutral on playerboy, he seems like he doesn't want to commit to him being town but doesn't want to push him too hard here. Only after he has multiple people on him (Heavenz, Jonnylaw) does he really turn the heat up on playerboy. IMO, this could conceivably be a bus, albeit a bad one. With all that being said, I don't think it is. Playerboy and stormtemplar's posting angles have been completely different, althought stormtemplar has been under pretty heavy pressure all game long so he's been focusing on defending himself. I don't think they are both mafia (either one or the other), but I definitely don't want to leave the possibility off the table that they are. One last thing on the stormtemplar/playerboy subject (and another reason I don't think they are scum together). Stormtemplar completely dismisses playerboy's recent post as scum without even a second thought (more on my thoughts on the post later) just because he goes against Zaragon. No elaboration here, but he continues to call him useless even though playerboy's post at least brings up something that was relevant at the time, the voting patterns. Now let me preface this by repeating the fact that I believe I made a mistake in voting on day 1, I should have voted for a no-lynch when everything came to pass, and I definitely should have noticed the blue claim. We've talked about it already and both Zaragon and I have given our reasoning. I find it odd that playerboy pretty much disregards what we said during the night and looks only at the day 1 events. But that could also just be good town play by not letting possible scum targets talk their way out of a slip. I think the post had good-intentions by looking at the voting pattern objectively and finding mob voters but the end of that day was hectic and I don't think you are taking that into account. I'm not sure what the angle would be as scum to post that though (i'm tired as fuck right now and i've been re-reading everything in night1 for ages), maybe to discredit Zaragon and I as townies since we got a blue role lynched. I'm gonna give it some more thought and definitely need to see more opinions on it when I have a fresh mind. Lastly, I've been looking through filters for any kind of alliances or non-alliances whether they seem scummy or not (meaning I wasn't looking at content for scumminess, just rather who has disagreed/agreed with each other). Jonnylaw and Heavenz Stormtemplar or Jonnylaw Stormtemplar or Playerboys Zaragon and Jonnylaw Zaragon or Bajablood Heavenz and onlywonderboy Maybe it can be helpful or maybe not. Just thought it would be interesting to see. Unfortunately it's getting late so I'm going to have to leave it at that. I was going to look at each of these pairs and see how they fit with the Bereft kill. But at first glance, it looks like Bereft might have just been a "strong-townie" kill that was not likely to be healed by doc since it was quite obvious that Zaragon was going to receive the heal. Looks like a safe kill. Anyways, I'm tired as fuck and this probably doesn't even amke any sense so goodnight T_T. I'm starting to read Stormtemplar somewhat less scum as well. First defense speech, it's what I would expect; there isn't much to do except bussing your scum buddy if they overdo a town read on you. Second speech, I filter dove Stormtemplar again. Heavenz interpreted something Stormtemplar said as if Stormtemplar would be ready to follow playerboy's lead, when Stormtemplar in reality was questioning playerboy being towny as his very first read. And questioning me regarding my read on playerboy, at the same time. Meaning Heavenz interpretation of Stormtemplar at the start was flawed. Referenced section here: On September 26 2013 16:58 heavenz wrote: onlywounderboy: only oneliners, while I am not against one liners at all, just writing 1 liners lacks much content. He tries to show activness even though he has no content, perhaps he didn't know what to write in the beginning. Now after 24h you should write more than 1 liners. Zaragon: has my strongest town read so far. Blurry is really falling behind expectation, that's weird. You really should post more. lurkers:Jayte, xIvanJ You both have to participate way more. Stormtemplar is to me the most suspicious. He has 3 posts, 2 of which are about the lurker topic, and then the only relevant post While this isn't a scummy post in itself, but it's not useful either. He just joins in on Zaragon's reads, and calls out a lurker. Asks Playerboy on his ideas (probably so he can just join them in again, if they find appeal, and again gives zero reads from himself). Imho scummy. A lot of the things that followed seemed to spring from Stormtemplar's frustration. Of course, possibly, even as scum, this could arise from being pinned as scum over a misunderstanding early on and some misinterpretations of his joke about playerboy's reads. I doubt it, though I have no reason as yet to think Heavenz deliberately misunderstood in this context, but it makes a playerboy/Stormtemplar scum team a lot less likely (accounting for ripple effects and him having to be on the defense). Someone's first hesitant read playing as scum is unlikely to be that they don't find their scum buddy convincing. I could buy that he'd distance himself from a scum buddy addressing me if he's going to follow me, but that seems unlikely too--only mentioning he finds playerboy neutral, without attaching any other reads? At the moment I like playerboy most for scum. Twice now the timing of his posts, end day and end night, has really felt scummy, as if he knows what to do to set himself up for the following phase. Certainty that indicates information advantage of scum, to me. I'm assuming scum would come up with a case to discredit me for the coming day since they were betting on Bereft, and it was a long and constructed one that could be for that purpose. He just missed the little detail that I was the first interested in Blurry as well as MLuneth and thus have nothing to gain from the whole swing vote for myself if I were scum, or any potential scum linked to me. Which ought to be a pretty massive detail if he were actually town making the case. Not so obvious from the scum perspective. I need to get back to sleep, but it will be interesting to see opinions on this. Looking at other options tomorrow (including the real possibility of scum lurkers just sitting the game out, and different swing vote possibilities). | ||
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On September 28 2013 16:32 heavenz wrote: if he were town he wouldn't have such issues answering simle questions and didn't have to come it with excuses "was joke soso, low battery can't post, plx no kill me, i post moar i swears" Zargan, that you indirectly imply that I mistook his word for what it was and not a silly joke on purpose makes you scummy. onlywounderboy is certainly Mafia btw I was roleblocked In what order are the nightactions processed? First town or first mafia? Heavenz, you did misunderstand him once when his phrasing was clear. The second time with the joke, that's fine, we can't prove it was even just a joke and it's an easy misunderstanding after the first. I would have--as I had already done--dismissed it as a language matter. I said I had no reason to believe you misunderstood on purpose. But I was explaining events around Stormtemplar and why that case has some significant flaws from early on that could have given it momentum it should not have at that point. Not sure how I'm implying anything about you, besides not knowing if you're town and what your motivations are. Rather a prudent thing to remember. The trouble is "if he were town he wouldn't have such issues answering simple questions and didn't have to come it with excuses" yes it looks scummy whenever someone does that if they need to address something. Unfortunately, town do it all the time. I'm not seeing a solid case yet. If there is one, I really want to find it because events day one have more meaning then. Can you comment on the playerboy case? Having a look at onlywonderboy in a moment. Why "certainly" mafia? | ||
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On September 29 2013 02:52 heavenz wrote: 12 player = 9 town- 2 death - 2 afk - 1 not participating = 4 so it's 4 to 3 already, I honestly don't see much point in this game. onlywounderboy is mafia, I'll vote him tomorow That's just plain mafia or throwing the game as town. Focus please. Make a case on onlywonderboy, and refute the playerboy case then. The way things are looking right now I feel our best chance is playerboy as scum, and making a plan to lynch Jayte/Blurry after. Hope that the inactives are scoured from the game by mods, and that at least one is scum. But this could in essence become LYLO already, you are right, so we better hit scum. If you have a certain thing on onlywonderboy, great, make us see it too. | ||
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The Bereft kill is weird in my opinion, why not go for heavenz/Zaragon who have been way more pro-town with their posts so far? I'd say those two are way bigger threats to mafia (unless they happen to be mafia). The Bereft kill isn't weird if scum thought I could be the doctor target. And has heavenz been more pro town than Bereft was? Have I been? How? Just activity? Besides, plenty of foundation to cast suspicion on me after the vote, if you are mafia and have this thought process. Your motivation to swap your vote as scum? You thought that you could get MLuneth lynched and that Blurry was likely to get modkilled, if that were the case you could have easily switched to MLuneth in order to maximize your kills. Even if Blurry wasn't going to get modkilled - he seems completely inactive so it would be beneficial for scum to keep him around compared to MLuneth whom you admitted to have read as a vigi. You're giving me a lot of credit and convoluted reasoning in your scum image of me I must say. Maximizing kills by switching target? I was setting that up hours in advance when I stated my reasoning behind MLuneth and Blurry? Just betting they wouldn't show up? If I were making a plan as scum, it wouldn't be that stupid, and it wouldn't depend on people not even playing. Sorry, you're wrong. The quote from me you wanted clarified: "Someone having too strong town reads--playerboy on Stormtemplar based on little, but carefully pushed little--is much more of a scum tell. Sign of knowing this person is town, or protecting a scum team mate." By this I meant, you gave a strong town read on Stormtemplar and quoted specific details of his play as if they were clearly pro town, which I think was far from clear to anyone else at that point. I was willing to chalk it up as a newbie/language oddity, and to be fair, I'm considering that again since I've seen the Stormtemplar ties aren't substantial and came out of misunderstandings. I don't see how posting at the end of a phase can be considered scummy. I voiced my opinion on MLuneth before my last post that phase and the post at night 1 took me ages to write. I had a shitton of tabs open, rereading stuff for ages to make sure and getting confused the whole fucking time due to the amount of text that I had to absorb, it ended up being done close to the deadline. It reads scummy, because instead of waiting to see what scum is going to do, you make a post setting up for something you expect to happen. You could only know the NK if scum, and only then is your post relevant. All that effort setting up for the day phase, while tensely waiting for NKs? As town? You did the same thing a couple of minutes before the voting deadline, by which time it's too late to change anything, but you look good as scum since you knew MLuneth was town. Why are you pushing for a Jayte/Blurry lynch? Jayte is inactive and Blurry asked to be replaced. How does lynching these two help town? It gives us no information and puts pressure on noone. Very scummy in my opinion. ....I didn't. I'm town so I state my current suggestion on the next day because I know I can die in the night. I was laying out for heavenz a way town still has a chance even if we stay lurker-city. Sure, I hope for better reads to lynch first, but by now I realized Jayte/Blurry are the lurkers who might be modkilled last since they have shown slight activity, thus best for first lynches if we end up in a situation to clean lurkers. I don't know if you're mafia, playerboy, it does conflict with my personality read on you since the beginning. You'd be an extremely ballsy scum first time player. You're still my top read, but since I'm not certain of you as scum anymore: I'm 1-Shot Cop with a town check (I will reveal them if it gets close to deadline and lurkers don't budge, since it could essentially be LYLO). I'm expecting to die tonight anyway, and I want to get town on track if we can. Maybe you can see my motivations for Day 1 better now, and why I used the word "cop-out" in a casual context (breadcrumb). More reads people, more opinions. | ||
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On September 29 2013 04:24 onlywonderboy wrote: EBWOP wrong thread oops On September 29 2013 05:00 onlywonderboy wrote: Alright, heavenz calling me out with no facts leads me to believe he is scum. Seems like he's soft role calling Town Cop when he isn't one. His posts just come off as "I have insider information, trust me." With the format of the game we may not even have a Town Cop. If he's going to post that he is certain someone is scum he needs to provide his reasoning for why upfront. I want to look at onlywonderboy carefully after this, noting the time interval. Meaning he had the thread open and had seen the accusation, had gone to do something else, posted in the wrong thread, and gone back. But at heavenz too with his last few posts, until he gives more. And any and every link to playerboy, since all that says town about him is high contribution and personality-based read, for me, too many other things scum. Going to try to go through everyone and possible links sometime today. | ||
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Investigating Playerboy/heavenz/AFKer, Playerboy/onlywonderboy/AFKer and a few other thoughts. I wish we had time to see more from onlywonderboy, I'm interested in him because he only responded in defense, had that little posting mistake and disappeared. I can still buy him as nervous town though and I really wish heavenz had made his case on him since it would help me read both. I don't think heavenz is Serial Killer. The only thing pointing to it would be to say he was Roleblocked (which would explain his missing NK, but why would he point it out?) No reason for an SK to do anything but sheep the group/semi-lurk, and heavenz is definitely not doing that. Could be scum motivated to win by lurker game destruction, but I have a hard time buying that--especially since we only have a single claim of being Roleblocked--which is why I really want his reads. I was putting some pressure on, but I actually doubt he's scum. And to be honest, if 2+ of scum are motivated to win that way, they will win. No counter claim on being Roleblocked, which isn't of major significance, but means heavenz gets town credit and should not be lynched today. Posting more as I have more time. | ||
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On September 28 2013 06:59 BajaBlood wrote: Some thoughts, I'll try to add more as time goes on: + Show Spoiler [Zaragon] + The most consistent pro-town voice in the thread so far. Actually to the point where I would second-guess this read if he wasn't targeted tonight, because I'm not sure why anyone would disagree. This read would get even stronger if no one dies tonight, because then I'm assuming both scum and medic are thinking the same. Obviously, I disagree with his Mluneth vote, but since it was the first vote and had more analysis behind it than later votes, it doesn't bother me that much + Show Spoiler [heavenz & Balla24 on MLuneth] + I'm still trying to process this bandwagon - it happened seemingly out of nowhere (little explanation and right before the deadline). It sounded like heavenz argument was better to lynch a somewhat suspicious afk'er than risk a mislynch on a suspicious active player? Is that an accurate summation of what you were thinking, Heavenz? Balla24 couldn't seem to explain his reasoning and had to claim it was a mistake (the post where he agrees with me then votes Mluneth was particularly baffling). I'm willing to accept that for now, since it is his first game and I can't really be intolerant of active-but-misguided players when I'm hoping for tolerance on that front as well. Ugh, my gut wants me to be suspicious of the bandwagon, but from the rest of the thread I'm getting a moderate town read on heavenz and slight town on Balla, so it might be best for me to let it go. Plus even though it was a bad lynch, it's not like the situation was providing us with many better options... + Show Spoiler [Lurkers] + Wait, you were expecting me to write more about lurkers after all that? I almost forgot my mental note to look at this. 1 minute before deadline, just along with Playerboy and setting up for "if Zaragon survives the night". Then even an EBWOP to make light of it: On September 28 2013 07:01 BajaBlood wrote: EBWOP - hahaha me and playerboy writing the exact opposite thing about zaragon at the same time. I'll take a look in a couple hours when I'm back from the gym And a couple of hours later, he didn't do that. Also, the post with the meta information on MLuneth, even if very good, was suspiciously timed (the 7 minutes until deadline I mentioned before). By that time the lynch was set. By itself, this doesn't mean anything, he could've not caught up to how fast people wanted to go MLuneth and not been worried until late. With another just-before-deadline post he looks suspicious in the same way playerboy does. Baja/Playerboy/inactive is now my biggest scum circle read. I'll check so I haven't missed something that contradicts them planning together. | ||
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A note for Balla by the way: no-lynch isn't an option in this setup A note on Baja/playerboy timing and play: I'm hesitating based on their contradiction in their suspiciously timed posts. It would be good if a third scum were backing playerboy, but pretty useless if a third scum is inactive. Baja could be considered on his own merit as scum with no playerboy attached, so I'm filter diving based on either an active scum threesome or checking if I like Baja as outlier scum, currently. At this point my main suspicions lie with playerboy or onlywonderboy. Still scumminess around Stormtemplar, I wish he would give more reads on more people, but a few of his posts have struck me as genuine and my personality read forming on him is starting to fit with how he has played, as town. Currently neutral/slightly scummy to me. JonnyLaw is not reading quite as tense anymore and contributes well with a motivation that reads slightly on the town side of neutral (I really hope we don't end up with inactives ruling the game and someone like JonnyLaw pulling it through, but I doubt it right now) Ouhc, Playerboy, if you're town, please don't address who the doc might or should save. Keep in mind the possibility we could only have a 1-Shot Doc or two or whatever, and discussing anything around this only helps scum | ||
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At this point, the most dangerous possibilities for me are heavenz using lurker factor to bring a scum win, possibly in conjunction with Playerboy. But both of them are contributing and reading town in many ways. A more subdued scum team is more likely to me by now. Tons of possibilities for lurker combinations but we have to disregard those I think. We get a lot of information tonight with an active target. Hopefully modkills sweep up foil targets and maybe even a scum or two. Jayte voted last night and Blurry did not, so for tomorrow depending on the landscape--good scum reads first obviously--prioritize a Jayte lynch if it comes down to a lurker. Assuming he will be modkilled last. Frustrating to depend on modkills but we have to. | ||
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Jayte did not vote last night. My mistake, too stressed. On September 30 2013 04:34 onlywonderboy wrote: I've been trying to defend myself all game long and it's been cited as one of the major reasons I've been called out as a scum. I don't have much to say now. I'm trying, but everything I say just gets twisted (which is a big part of the game). I haven't been calling people out because hardly anyone has done anything to show their true colors, I'm just working on little pieces of info like everyone else. I think you guys are just confusing scum reads with noob reads. I'm pretty sure heavenz is mafia though. Seems certain I'm mafia and never gave any good reasoning for it. If I end up getting lynched when I'm revealed to be town it will at least put pressure on heavenz and playerboy since they are so convinced I'm scum. Defense is not a problem at all; you should vehemently defend yourself and explain why it's a bad choice, give reads on people you suspect and why. Only saying who to suspect if you die isn't helping. Anything more on heavenz or Playerboy? Who else do you suspect and why? What is your read on Stormtemplar at the moment? You write posts that show a lot of thinking without much reasoning surrounding scum reads. It's not impossible that it's a newbie tell, but I'm starting to get a feeling that it's a "I know no one I would want lynched is actually mafia" thing. | ||
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I see a good case here, plus it solves a town fight and gives lead to an under-the-radar scum team. Unless I've missed something on playerboy or something new turns up, this is my vote. | ||
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playerboy has done a lot of scummy things and it's possible he's playing dumb when he's called out about it, but he's always been enthusiastic and seemingly curious to solve the game. After he constructed his huge case based on me starting a vote swap as scum, obviously I have the reaction that "he calls me scum, he must be scum", but I don't want that to cloud my judgment. Still, he did it at just the timing I imagine he would want to set up as scum... I'm really not sure about onlywonderboy, it's 50/50 for me as is playerboy, heavenz similar. I'm hoping for the best town situation considering our lurker situation, though, and I would hate it if we had active town on town kills and die that way Depends on heavenz, onlywonderboy and playerboy's input now. | ||
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On September 30 2013 06:24 heavenz wrote: if I was scum I would sit back and just watch you, or don't show up at all, haha... Anyone who pushes for me is either mafia, or w/e, lynch me if you must. ... this post makes me think heavenz is capable of using any kind of lurker situation to his advantage. Much more scummy to me now. It would make sense for heavenz to lead the scum team, kill Bereft and go after Bereft's scum read (a scum read who is town of course). Heavenz. Please explain more, that really was no kind of town defense. | ||
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Betting onlywonderboy. | ||
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On September 30 2013 06:43 Balla24 wrote: Wait i'm confused, why do you buy it? Isn't vt just vanilla townie? Why would someone claim that? Not too relevant to the game i guess but im just so confused right now. Ah my first thought was vigi which could be proven in the night. I'm not sure, I just buy the possibility of a mafia roleblocker hitting heavenz since Bereft died and I wasn't roleblocked. playerboy hasn't said anything about roleblocking either. Of course, heavenz would know if there isn't a scum roleblocker in the game if he is scum... Ugh I don't know | ||
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On September 30 2013 06:54 heavenz wrote: the roleblock thing was only important when it was impossible for bereft to roleblock me that we know there is a mafia roleblock, was the only use of that claim. If you are scum and there is no scum roleblocker in this game, you could safely claim roleblock to look towny. It would be really good play, even. So I don't know what to bet on. | ||
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Second big mistake on my part. I'm more than willing to trust the people that voted playerboy or heavenz to take the wheel now, I get the sense I let myself get swayed by scum | ||
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But if it's just one of them and the other scum is voting on the other (or Koshi[Blurry]) this might get tricky. I doubt I'll budge much on them now or get any new information, but I'll look as much as I can. I have my own little town circle with my town check still, unfortunately they can't know, of course. So I'm going to use that as much as possible to evaluate things, but otherwise hope others will step up. (Sorry onlywonderboy, bye) | ||
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On September 30 2013 07:30 Koshi wrote: Ahyeah extra information about me. I got roleblocked night 1. So heavenz is mafia? Wish we had known that a bit earlier. | ||
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(Welcome Koshi, btw) | ||
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But I'm guessing the rest of you need to evaluate me. Just keep in mind the swing vote was in my hands last minute and towards the two other people I wanted lynched. I'm also an un-countered 1-Shot Cop. I've made mistakes, but they should be clearly towny ones at this point. | ||
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I guess there can be no doc role in this setup then? Which makes me comfortable to say my town check was JonnyLaw. | ||
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On September 30 2013 09:08 stormtemplar wrote: Hey guys, this whole chain of events has left me a little confused, I'm going to have to spend some time reading through it, but I'll try to have something by the end of the night. Zaragon, since you expect to die tomorrow, are you going to share your cop read at some point tonight. I did, it's JonnyLaw. And depending on our setup (I've calculated a bit in the C9++ and we should have only 2 goons + Roleblocker mafia team) he might be 100% confirmed town. Only possible SK or GF if we have an unclaimed role which needs to come out right now (unless it's a Doc) | ||
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That's sticky. | ||
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But obviously the game is still pretty open now for the coming LYLO, and my cop check on JonnyLaw is not of as much value except to significantly lower the odds that he's scum. I doubt a Doc at this point, but we could have. I'm not sure I'd be glad if we did since it means an SK at LYLO. Anyway, no more time tonight for me to look into this. Should be a lot for everyone to discuss, and heavenz gets a slight credibility boost since Stormtemplar supports his story. I'm personally not as certain as I was on heavenz/playerboy mafia, though it's still my best bet. Hmm so Koshi is just about confirmed town getting Roleblocked by mafia. We're down to pretty few options and possible fake claim combinations at this point. | ||
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Ok I'm trying to look at as many angles as possible (even if I ought to be looking at my other current Mafia game or sleeping). The most obvious scum team is heavenz + playerboy. Jonnylaw is against playerboy, Balla is against heavenz. Stormtemplar and I are against heavenz + playerboy Possible scum teams: heavenz/playerboy JonnyLaw (GF)/Balla (RB) JonnyLaw (GF)/heavenz (RB) playerboy/Balla Without thinking outside the box and unlikely possibilities (though it's going to be LYLO, so once one confirmed town dies tonight, we have to consider everything). Because of my cop check, the JonnyLaw/Heavenz combo is 100% heavenz Roleblocker, and as RB, successfully getting his RB off while being RBed. This is not possible, I believe? I think not, which makes this scum team impossible. A scum team with heavenz in it is more likely to Roleblock Blurry N1 than the other combinations, IMO. More support for heavenz/playerboy as a scum team. The only line of thinking for likely scum teams I haven't investigated at all is playerboy/Balla and JonnyLaw/Balla Filter diving on any connections or contradictions to base my own call on tomorrow (or this morning, if insomnia decides). | ||
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There are other scum teams possible with careful bussing, but essentially the entire day 1 was meaningless because of lurkers, and I am just not getting better reads. heavenz and playerboy make sense. Minimal bussing for major active players, both made very scummy plays. heavenz shifted reads a lot, including town reading playerboy at a critical juncture, going from some careful suspicion early on. This could almost be a scum slip, and I should definitely have spotted it sooner: On September 30 2013 03:49 heavenz wrote: you mentioned it probably, but playerboys voting behavior is scummy. It almost seems like he knew that mylunch was town, and went for wounderboy knowing he wouldn't get a majority on that player that time, effectivly throwing his vote away, just to get some town credit (or end up on the misslynch group). then again, I share berefts thoughts on wounderboy, and have to agree with playboy that he never participated in anyway in a analysis of a player he thought was scummy. He just posted like I feel bad about him, but never bothered to do dig deeper. On September 30 2013 03:56 heavenz wrote: imho you're town On September 30 2013 04:07 heavenz wrote: if we lynch onlywounderboy it has the advantage that it would clear playboy, the otherway around it wouldn't yield much. On September 30 2013 04:07 heavenz wrote: edit: it has the possiblity that it could clear* sorry. Think I'm done diving and digging, I'm set. heavenz and playerboy mafia, anything else, low chance for me. | ||
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If that's really the case, it narrows down the field a lot since it means heavenz or Stormtemplar must be mafia, correct? I wasn't inclined to believe both of them can be, since Stormtemplar is quite willing to kill heavenz (though... that does mean, 2 LYLOs coming, Stormtemplar could survive and win anyway, so it doesn't clear him) | ||
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Or Koshi came in fake claiming getting roleblocked out of nowhere, but that would almost be too cruel to believe for a newbie game, hah Or an RB hit another inactive so they didn't speak up. Or the scum RB had to make the NK rather than RB because of an inactive buddy. Highly unlikely. Heavenz, no I think not. GF/Goon/Goon not possible for our number of power roles. | ||
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I think you are the mafia Roleblocker. Koshi, what would happen except nothing? They are just blocking each other from doing anything by targeting each other. | ||
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It's possible, but then you assume one Roleblock from scum or Bereft went on someone who didn't say anything (another person except Blurry). Remote possibility | ||
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I hope that means we out-metaed mafia from going Stormtemplar, but now we have a conundrum. Roleblocks, guys? Stormtemplar who did you block? | ||
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But I will admit: Look at Stormtemplar and Balla24 again, they blamed my aphatically play on beeing SK, which also makes no sense, or on me beeing mafia RB, like if' I'ld cry about that lol. I won my first game as scum, that would be retarded to play like that. This was odd, and is just about the only reason I haven't dismissed Stormtemplar or Balla as mafia. That's really not how an SK would play at all, and any amount of thought about it would bring you to that conclusion. Odd thing to coordinate about in scum QT too though. Need to think about the situation more, and absolutely need to know why Stormtemplar's RB didn't land right, that could tell us a whole lot. | ||
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You see, Koshi and I were setting up for you to maybe, hopefully, survive and roleblock Playerboy, in which case if Playerboy is mafia, no one died tonight and we had a confirmed mafia team, basically. We were hinting towards scum to do something unexpected and mess up. What they should have done (if heavenz/playerboy) is kill you using their roleblocker's NK and let the GF sit out And yes, now we might have to kill you for this I'm afraid and hope it was a scum move | ||
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If a night kill and a roleblock had happened like it did just now but you had told us you roleblocked PLayerboy, it would have made Playerboy confirmed town through you and we would have a big town circle. We would know where to look. Now you look scummiest of all as a scum roleblocker in a RB/Goon/Goon team instead, and I don't know at all whether it's a scum move or blunder. | ||
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JonnyLaw is pretty solid town now, and he was making a pretty good effort at a Stormtemplar/Playerboy case early which just about clears him from a team with STormtemplar. Likliest scum combinations Stormtemplar/Balla, heavenz/playerboy Stormtemplar/Heavenz possible but I find the way they set things up early then to be highly unlikely. Stormemplar/playerboy also unlikely from earlier events. Looking at other possibilities | ||
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Do you think this mistake fit with his play earlier? Would you put him in any scum team? | ||
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If we lynch a townie we lose. At night, you--if you are alive, which I'm not sure you should be--will have a coinflip battle against scum and they will be prepared for the meta game this time. It's not relevant now | ||
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I also don't see what choice you would have now if you had fake claimed town RB as scum. You couldn't give evidence for an extra RB tonight, so you had to RB someone (JonnyLaw in that case) to make sure we see a scum RB in the game. Faking a blunder is the mafia move you would have to make, unless you had the guts to pretend RB heavenz or playerboy and be ready to argue when they say they don't have a roleblock notification. Also, if you had pulled that stunt.. it simply wouldn't have worked, becaue 2 RBs and a NK would have been clearly visible in the game. You could fake RB your team mate and real RB someone else, that's about it. It looks so scummy I don't know how to believe you regardless of if I find you genuinely sorry | ||
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Why should we believe you? | ||
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On October 01 2013 12:33 stormtemplar wrote: Also, if heavenz is town and I'm mafia, why would I have claimed town RB only to make him more credible? There wasn't a point to it. What was my goal as mafia in this whole thing? What went wrong, what was the payoff for claiming? I don't see the motive. I convinced you lot I was town for maybe 20 hours in which you were powerless anyway. I wasn't really under suspicion, why not just fly under the radar? That's why I'm not voting yet. Two reasons you would do that: 1, Make us think there was a Godfather in the game. 2, Opportunistic town credit for the discussion, knowing the group would shrink to LYLO size. Trying to figure out if these are things you would have sought in those circumstances | ||
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On October 01 2013 12:53 stormtemplar wrote: Also, just to be absolutely 100% postive Do roleblocks still go through if the roleblocker in question dies that night? I know what you guys said about that question, but I have to ask because on the off chance the answer is no I'm basically confirmed town RB, as there is no other way to account for the double roleblock at this point, except another town rb who didn't claim yet, and there is no chance that that is the case. No, the entire hypothesis of 3 RBers in this game came from you and Bereft BBB (2 Town Roleblockers), heavenz as mafia RB being RBed in the night to explain the missing roleblock. Anyone else as mafia RB would have to also have RBed heavenz or Blurry, or that premise didn't even work. 2 RBers in the game, Bereft on Blurry and you on Heavenz, you being mafia RB, makes events more likely and more simple. The only reason we treated you as confirmed town was that you would prove it at the end of the night phase, now it'd be a pure gut check and whatever substance we have on heavenz and playerboy basically | ||
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On October 01 2013 13:00 stormtemplar wrote: Yay I'm a DT! I need to go to bed now, it's midnight, I'll answer any questions tomorrow, so if you're wondering where I went, the answer is bed. Gnight. Good night I guess we'll see how this turns out when heavenz and playerboy make their cases. Balla feel free to toss in your opinion as well, maybe scrounge for a detail on playerboy or heavenz. So far it looks like you will be rather unfortunately (if you are town) tied to Stormtemplar's blunder. | ||
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Hoping for good imput now from the rest of the group, especially JonnyLaw. | ||
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I do doubt that Stormtemplar is town--he even said he would "lose for his team" either way rather than town at one point, and a lot of his emotional posting can come from feeling he's letting a scum buddy down. He also said specifically, in his claim: "town roleblocker", not just "roleblocker". One of the only reasons someone would think to mention "town" in that context, I imagine, is if they are scum (he could be the type that likes to capitalize his letters and write Town Roleblocker but he didn't). But we have a lot of day left and should be extremely thorough since this is LYLO and we need to catch both of the scum. | ||
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And the one where you didn't seem to care about winning for town, anymore. You also asked, after saying you were roleblocked, in which order night actions were processed. As vanilla town I don't see your motivation to do that. Potentially soft-claiming a role is mainly only a good idea if you're mafia, and otherwise it could be interpeted as a scum RB slip. And you said "advantage of clearing playerboy" which you EBWOPed to "possibility", after suddenly town reading him when you had been at least somewhat suspicious before. So many things tell me Stormtemplar is scum, and you are, and playerboy. Balla strikes me, more than most people who have been in this game, as making newbie mistakes but doing few outright scummy mistakes. We have only 2 days of voting to go off of and he refused to follow the three most active players in the game on the vote last night, so I can't say he's a clearly sheeping scum either. If you are town, heavenz, I can understand if it looks like a relatively easy game from your perspective; it's not quite that clear cut from my perspective. I don't want anyone breezing through LYLO. Fight for the town, guys | ||
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On October 01 2013 17:47 playerboy345 wrote: Sorry onlywonderboy, I really thought you were scum :/ I guess your death is kinda my fault T_T So I think this game is basically Zaragon's to win or lose, right? Also I noticed that Koshi probably didn't suspect me as scum as he never really mentioned me in any of his posts. I'll try to be more useful today as I probably have more time to spend today compared to yesterday. Town's game. If there are any cases to be made that haven't been yet, we need to find them. And I need some sleep | ||
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On October 01 2013 20:47 heavenz wrote: yeah I know, that was badly played, but I don't see how that makes me scum. I read him as town, but I was dissapointed by his progession, he only cared about himself, that annoyed me, that's why I just wanted to push him, but I should have realized that I got opposition from the scum, so I should have stopped before the end,.. I was just hoping he would really be scum. Mistakes were made. Btw, you keep looking at mistakes, that's not how you should play it. Look at the motivation behind the actions. 1) I wasn't the town leader 2) I wasn't convincing 3) It was really dumb, and I didn't care if you would have lynched me afterwards, coz the game with the ton of afk'ers felt like a waste of time so basicly it was really bad and risky. If I was mafia, I would feel beforehand if more players thought that he would be a good lynch, not 180 and go for it no matter what, and that on an unimportant target. I didn't cover myself in glory that day, but I made up for it. Either way if you consider Stormtemplar mafia you can't think that I am mafia too. Also this is my 2nd game, I claimed I was roleblocked because I was roleblocked (even stormtemplar attest it), I claim vt, coz I am, I never claimed anything else. I want to ask you a question. Consider my claim to be true for a second. Now make up reasonable mafia teams. If you and playerboy were mafia, you needed a third target because both of you were close to getting lynched (for fairly good reasons). So it's not about mistakes. If the two of you were scum and had set up the beginning of the day as you did, how would you move heat off playerboy? JonnyLaw made a strong case on playerboy as well (I have to admit, my cop check on him did strengthen it in my mind as well) at an ill timed moment for a heavenz/playerboy scum team. And you drew suspicion with your posting, which was careless as either scum or town. Yes, I would have expected you to be more careful, and yes I would have expected you as mafia to look more carefully at who to NK last night On October 02 2013 04:05 stormtemplar wrote: I would point out that that is not a very townie post heavenz. You've been operating with certainty all game long, and town is never certain. Even "Confirmed" townies usually have some element of doubt, it's just that it's much more likely that they are town. You very rarely 100% know everything in mafia as town, and you've been playing like you do, which is very much a mafia trait. Also, the DT think was a reference to my profile picture, I hit 2K posts and became a DT. The losing the game from either side thing was a continuation of my propensity for ill-timed humor, but I was pointing out that from any point of view and in all possible situations my play was a monumental screw up. I'm still honestly confused as to what this whole debacle gained me if I'm mafia. Considering I was mostly not under suspicion and balla REALLY wasn't, if we're the scum team then this is the best possible senario, and it's a crappy and easy to predict one. I would have been much better off just staying silent. There's no motive to behave as I did for scum, while there is one for a townie. The problem is, we have to assume you made a mistake either way, and comparing and WIFOMing which one you would make isn't helping me personally see if you're scum. Honestly, from the circumstances, I would be almost sure it was Stormtemplar now (the odds of BBB, 2 town RB, combined with the odds of hitting the mafia RB the first night and forgetting to RB second night). Except, playerboy is coming in and showing he hasn't even read the game since last lynch. Whether that's genuine or not, it makes it plausible for a playerboy scum team to not have thought the NK through. I need to look back more at motivations at different points in the game. JonnyLaw and playerboy are right about Koshi, by the way. And it's an odd kill for playerboy/heavenz. He showed more suspicions about Balla and Stormtemplar than I; I was working completely under the assumption that Stormtemplar would confirm town RB after the night. Also, Bereft was more skeptical of Balla early than most, and mildly of Stormtemplar if I remember right. I'm quite confused about this game myself since several things make little sense. Hopefully more information will come out during the remaining time. | ||
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On October 02 2013 06:24 heavenz wrote: I know, I played carelessly, I thought I am just a VT, if I die, what ever. But the situation arose and many modkills, and we're suddenly at the end of the game. If you belive that Stormtemplar is mafia, it's stormtemplar and balla24, I just ask you to read my longer post again. You need to understand the this is not a rating of who is the most suspicious, we just have to kill the mafia. Read the last game, umasi was mafia, he wasn't suspicious at all. Playerboy mentioned that he played with Umasi in aonther game where Umasi was scum as well, you will not think he is mafia because he is more town than all of town. I don't have any connection or responsibilty for playerboy, on day1 I assumed that the mafia was playerboy & stormtemplar. I made a case with JonnyLaw on Stormtemplar and I made a case with Playerboy on Onlywunderboy. I think that Stormtemplar is scum, and when stormtemplar is scum he is scum with balla24. You tied playerboy rather loosely to stormtemplar day 1. No reason you couldn't have bussed him and made out as if he was cleared when stormtemplar flipped town. If you are scum, I would expect some early bussing, to be honest. On October 02 2013 08:53 Balla24 wrote: Dude what does this even mean??????????? This entire game is about lynching the suspicious people. What else is there to go on besides suspicion? Why would you lynch someone if they aren't suspicious? The whole goal of town is to get the scum to become suspicious so that they can find out and then kill them before they kill town. This is such a shit show. It seems to me like everybody is just bussing everybody because fuck everybody else. Please, zaragon, jonnylaw ASK MORE QUESTIONS. We're not going to get anywhere with you guys re-iterating the facts that we all know. You need to get people to share their thoughts on different subjects so that the suspects can possibly slip in their reasoning. This is one thing that Heavenz (yes, i'm going to say it again) has yet to provide. ANY reasoning for ANYTHING. Force it out! Of all of us, not just Heavenz. It's LYLO after 2 days and scum's job is to not appear suspicious throughout the game. It's not as easy as who looks most suspicious. I do have another question to ask. Balla, why have you read stormtemplar town all game and showed minimal suspicion about him? After the whole roleblock conversation yesterday, can you really buy that he simply forgot to use his? He was active in the roleblocking discussion, obviously. Other than that, I need to see playerboy's take on what he missed of the game and his reads now. | ||
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playerboy really needs to give his view and his scum cases, but I don't see how we can vote him tonight no matter how scummy he is. If heavenz is the roleblocker (likeliest teammate with playerboy) we kill him, roleblock playerboy and win without another LYLO. So if you want to lynch playerboy tonight rather than stormtemplar or heavenz, I'd really like to see a good case for it, because I can't see the logic there. | ||
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On October 02 2013 13:00 Balla24 wrote: No, it's not that easy. But the whole process of this game is to make it so scum players become suspicious enough that you can lynch them. If a player isn't ever suspicious you will never catch them. Just because their actions aren't suspicious by themselves doesn't mean that together with something else they aren't suspicious either. At the end of the day, it will be who looks most suspicious, regardless of whether or not they are most suspicious now, otherwise why would you vote for them. Anyways, I don't even know why we're talking about this. It's silly. This is the kind of random rants we can't really afford right now. I shouldn't have brought it up. To me, the case on stormtemplar was very very weak on day 1 and day 2 the attention was somewhere else. There wasn't much substance behind it and I couldn't find anything particularly scummy. Today however things are totally different. I can't believe him. Just can't. Koshi calculated the chance of a setup like this being 2.5% or something like that. That's so low. I can't really believe him straight up based on that possibility, but on the other hand the situation where he is ACTUALLY town roleblocker and he ACTUALLY forgot to roleblock just makes more sense to me with the way the game has flowed and the way he has played in general. The timing all makes sense. Everything else makes sense. The situation where he is scum roleblocker seems so contrived and unreasonable. It doesn't make sense. Why would stormtemplar roleblock Jonnylaw in this case and then why would he claim he forgot to roleblock? I don't know. I'm a in a weird situation here where BOTH cases are incredibly incredibly low probability, in one case it's due to the way the game is setup and in the other case it's just because of how it all fits together. I agree with that to some extent. However, the roleblock on JonnyLaw would only be for appearances, to show a scum RB was still in the game. On the surface, it looks like a solution for a scum stormtemplar after the mistake of claiming town RB. Thing is, as far as I know, stormtemplar could be scum RB and have had no idea that if he claimed town RB it meant a scum RB had to exist as well. He might have scrambled to look at C9++ when it was first mentioned, realized his mistake, and come up with a solution. There are so many possibilities as to how his mistake (whichever it was) happened. If I went by the flow of the game and how and what people have said, playerboy/heavenz would be my scum team of choice. Just, a town RB Stormtemplar not even attempting to block the NK, especially if he expected to die, it's hard to swallow. | ||
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On October 02 2013 13:29 Balla24 wrote: I totally understand. It's literally the worst way to lose. I'm not sure the roleblock on jonnylaw is the best move in his position, or even a good move at all. What about just roleblocking Heavenz again? He would have kept the possibility of Heavenz being scum RB and he could have covered it with the fact that he was trying to kill 2 birds with one stone (possibly block a kill and also a roleblock) and also trying to clear his name as town RB. Obviously this wouldn't be the brightest town RB play but it would certainly (IMO, and no offense stormtemplar) match his play. Again though, I'm just trying to think logically through this and understand what possibilities there are. Can I ask you a question you asked me previously though? If he is town RB and did forget the roleblock, do you think it fits with his play the rest of the game? You've probably already thought about it, but putting thoughts out there sometimes catches things you don't normally. Just interested to see It's not a good move, that's the problem, nothing around it is a good move (unless I suppose he's scum and manages to confuse us somehow). If he's scum and had fake claimed, he should've claimed he RBed heavenz or playerboy and that they out-metaed him by how they performed the NK. As for whether forgetting to RB fits his play to my eyes, yes, it fits my town read on him. But that same day, before he stopped posting, he was discussing the RB situation with us and about RB being able to stop NK... After that, it doesn't fit with my read on him. He was clearly emotional about the game in his defense speech earlier, so just deciding that he was dying and it didn't matter if he even tried to stop the NK makes no sense. Maybe, maybe I can believe it. The question is just if we want to gamble that much on basically a personality read on stormtemplar. Actually, does he have any previous games anywhere? By the way, my main priority is still to see a case of some kind from playerboy before I decide on my vote. | ||
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Balla and stormtemplar coming up to the NK. What does this QT actually look like? Oh crap, mistake claiming town roleblocker, what now? Someone being AFK most of the night and a haphazard decision on how to solve it? Maybe suspicion will still stick to heavenz or playerboy? Alternatively, heavenz/playerboy. stormtemplar has claimed RB. If they kill him, they pretty much point an arrow at themselves as mafia. If they RB him and kill someone else (me or Koshi presumably) they know they can argue with stormtemplar, he will come across as quite genuine at getting RBed however. So they flip a coin, try to RB someone else (potential Doc perhaps) and hope stormtemplar hits heavenz instead of playerboy? 50/50% lose the game just to make stormtemplar appear less genuine when he argues for himself? You know, something doesn't make sense in either of those conversations, and I almost think one of the unlikeliest scum teams that we've dismissed out of pure probability could be it. JonnyLaw's odd unwillingness to lynch heavenz over playerboy sets off a red flag in my head; I need to go back and check why I dismissed them. If heavenz expected himself or playerboy to get roleblocked, signaling JonnyLaw (as scum mate) to say he was roleblocked would be the perfect scum play. Discredits stormtemplar after the night, ostensibly clears JonnyLaw and possibly heavenz as well depending on stormtemplar's target. And things would make a lot more sense. Checking this theory as well. | ||
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On October 02 2013 17:08 playerboy345 wrote: By the way what are the chances of there being a serial killer in our current scenario? I'm really confused and I don't really get this C9++ stuff. It's almost impossible at this point. If I remember the math right it would mean that stormtemplar is a real town roleblocker, we have a doctor, GF and an SK--that everyone still in the game is a role. | ||
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On October 02 2013 17:56 playerboy345 wrote: Koshi mentioned: After which he posts: Later he posts: These posts plus the fact that he "forgot" to RB someone is scummy in my opinion. He might have been scared that Koshi would figure him out and decided to NK him in the hopes that people would attack someone else. I have the feeling heavenz is trying to get me lynched first to "clear" himself of suspicion. He just keeps saying stuff like playerboy town 100%, effectively drawing attention to me. heavenz' filter looks way scummier compared to stormtemplars, but stormtemplar "forgetting" to RB is just so unbelievable that it makes him look scummy :/ Yes basically the stars need to have aligned for us to roll BBB, hit the mafia blocker, out-metaed mafia to neither block nor kill the town blocker, and him forgetting to block anyone... it'd be like a perfect storm working for scum. I'm still not sure I can vote anyone except stormtemplar, though. The circumstances point at him as scum just about as clearly as anything possibly can in a Mafia game. Oh, by the way, regarding SKs: even if stormtemplar would be mafia roleblocker and we would have a doctor, it means an SK as well, I just realized. So not out of the realm of possibility. But no evidence of a doctor and it's LYLO so doesn't really matter today, have to lynch scum. Oh, and I checked why I had dismissed JonnyLaw/heavenz for mafia; it was before stormtemplar claimed town roleblocker. It's possible if stormtemplar's claim is true. They would have needed some careful risks to get here, though. Irrelevant for now I suppose except as an explanation for the odd night event. We should lynch heavenz or stormtemplar tonight. Just in case I miss the deadline (I have some real life complications), I'll bet with the odds rather than my gut for now: ##Vote stormtemplar | ||
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Strongly bussed, risky scum play earlier in the game, yes. I'm not putting much time into investigating it further; the only detail from their filters that hints possible scum team is JonnyLaw saying that he would vote heavenz but then going for you playerboy. Anyway, you yourself have more ties to heavenz. And focus needs to be on whether we believe heavenz or stormtemplar is the scum roleblocker, either way. | ||
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On October 02 2013 22:28 heavenz wrote: that's the thing, I wish you would read what I said, or even consider it. The fact is that one mafia wasn't participating in the game ever, this means, everyone knows after it was discussed day1 that this person will be modkilled. So scum was basicly one down already, in what circumstance what you buss your teammate on day1 when you are already 1 man down, like... never? I mean mafia has to be retarded as hell to get lynched on day1. Balla24 defendes stormtemplar dispite everything, right away. I pointed those posts out, just read them. The goal of the mafia will be to surivve day1 with as few casualties as possible, it will make the game for them harder already having one guy modkilled, you wouldn't let the otherone go down carelessly. (reread my longer post). anyway for me this is an obvious vote ##stormtemplar You keep saying odd things like this, and the thing is, I think you know better. I have read your old mafia game and your old scum QT from it. If you are scum and basically have 2 people in a group of 13, expecting tons of modkills, it would be a solid strategy to go bussing your scum mate... You take a measured risk with it. You don't end up at LYLO x 2 with a strong connection to each other; you try to make sure that you play 1 + 1 scum rather than 2, just pushing other people harder than each other. The only reason not to do that is if someone is really nervous about playing scum and afraid their bussing will have too strong an effect. I don't see that if you and playerboy are scum. Maybe it's plausible for stormtemplar/Balla. Unfortunately, that's another factor that makes both very possible. I'm still sticking with stormtemplar for now, but doing some last digging | ||
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Zaragon
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I realize I'm betting that scum had their perfect storm; basically, that the coin flip landed on edge. But this is how I'll feel better about the game when it ends, right or wrong. If everyone else stays on stormtemplar (ironic name with the metaphor I used) he received 3 votes first and will be lynched, I'm fine with that too, the odds are a safer bet. ##Vote heavenz | ||
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Zaragon
Sweden235 Posts
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Zaragon
Sweden235 Posts
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Zaragon
Sweden235 Posts
gg | ||
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Zaragon
Sweden235 Posts
So two RBers hit heavenz I guess? What are the odds haha | ||
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Zaragon
Sweden235 Posts
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Zaragon
Sweden235 Posts
On October 03 2013 07:13 cakepie wrote: also improbable ≠ impossible Yes I'm always aware of this, I was dismissing things pretty hard because I realized we would have a LYLO after day 2... One of the gambles I made was to dismiss the possibility of a scum and town RB hitting heavenz. Turns out to be a big mistake, obviously. | ||
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Zaragon
Sweden235 Posts
2 Town Roleblockers + a scum and town roleblocker hitting heavenz seemed one of the more remote possibilities (since I wasn't roleblocked either) My mistake Sorry, heavenz, JonnyLaw, by the way. You each had a piece to the game I think | ||
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Zaragon
Sweden235 Posts
Balla played a clever game, he wasn't tied to his scum mate much at all | ||
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Zaragon
Sweden235 Posts
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Zaragon
Sweden235 Posts
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Zaragon
Sweden235 Posts
I'm pretty sure scum played a better game here though | ||
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Zaragon
Sweden235 Posts
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Zaragon
Sweden235 Posts
But I suppose I don't know how I would play scum until I do. | ||
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Zaragon
Sweden235 Posts
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Zaragon
Sweden235 Posts
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Zaragon
Sweden235 Posts
On October 03 2013 19:32 cakepie wrote: Hosts did what we could to balance the remaining game on the basis of 5v2 with the remaining roles being RB vs RB (1-shot cop spent; GF therefore also moot), keeping in mind the information that was already out there due to the claimed cop greencheck and people claiming to have gotten roleblocked -- notice the emphasis there on claims: these are not "confirmed facts" and this the potential for WIFOM is there depending on whether you believe the claims or not. The way we set it up, as of the start of N2 both factions had a decent chance of winning the game. I can understand that scumteam would feel threatened with a more experienced player jumping in and kickstarting the discussion, but c'mon, we're not going to just let you cruise to victory thanks to low activity, we're going to make sure you work for it (just kidding =Þ). Seriously though, it was necessary to replace Blurry -- who failed to make any mention of being roleblocked N1. If we modkilled 3 for 1, town would be going into a 4v2 at N2, and most likely 3v2 after the nightkill, and missing this crucial piece of information. Yes I think it was the best you could have done in the circumstances, it was a good game at that point. Some odd dynamics, that's about it; unavoidable Koshi did a good job as well IMO. Coming in like he did he could have been a lot less open and instead pressured people about details. But he basically laid out information for both teams. I could see mafia being intimidated about him at LYLO though I hope stormtemplar isn't feeling too bad about this game, by the way. If you're around, I hope you know that pressuring you about why you missed the RB was only part of the game; we needed to see your reaction. Absolutely no hard feelings, mistakes are part of the game for everyone | ||
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