EPTGolden Sun: The Broken Seal Mini Mafia - Page 12
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Papa_Smurf
336 Posts
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Papa_Smurf
336 Posts
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Papa_Smurf
336 Posts
Assuming that the "good" (I think experienced is a better word since good is game by game) are not on the same side is a very dangerous line to walk. It may be the case this game, but not every game. also, assuming that the sk is one of the more experienced is 3p is wromg. Once you get into vet games the skill differencr isnt that great overall. | ||
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Papa_Smurf
336 Posts
On September 18 2013 23:07 raynpelikoneet wrote: debears talk with me okay? What do you think about the post i wrote about N1 reactions to BH's claim? Ignore kush talking about you being SK, what do you make of the argument between me and him? Kush has been shitting up the thread, especially since n2. Umasi and I have talked about it, hence umasi switching to kush ill keep saying this: kush is very likely scum | ||
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Papa_Smurf
336 Posts
On September 18 2013 23:16 raynpelikoneet wrote: Yeah you are right. I was trying to put myself into scum shoes on D1. I would never ever let D1 end + N1 happen as it did. Actually kush has some good points against Pandain & Grack. There are some seriously weird stuff they did on D1 end and on N1. I can even explain Grack's fakeclaim from mafia!pov but for this to hold water Vayne has to be scum. How about Vayne/Grack for scum, Pandain as SK? Funny thing is, if grack is scum, wouldnt kush be scum for bussing him? I can see vayne as scum. pandain as sk is possible, I would definitely label him as not scum | ||
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Papa_Smurf
336 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=19732241 Look at the timing on the vote. Grack was one the second person on the OP wagon, and WoS backed out 4 hours later. Grack led the wagon. why would he think the wagon is scum led if he was the first person (as town) to place his vote on OP? I'm still on the fence with this one. But, as town, I would think that you would not find your own wagon "scum led" if you have any kind of confidence in your abilities. I still would like to lynch kush the most. zealos is second right now. I'm warming up to a grack lynch though | ||
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Papa_Smurf
336 Posts
zealos then grack | ||
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Papa_Smurf
336 Posts
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Papa_Smurf
336 Posts
He is very likely serial killer. Will post reasoning later. Based on his d1 votes and timing of those votes. His voting makes no sense from town or scum perspective. Join the love train | ||
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Papa_Smurf
336 Posts
On September 19 2013 04:03 Sn0_Man wrote: Okay dibbers, Zealos is the SK (I'm not disagreeing or agreeing right now). Who is scum? We scratched kush off your list, leaving Grack. Theres at least one more no? Kush is still scum. No wants wants to lynch him. anyways grack would fit with him. Va possibly could. Sn0 could. | ||
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Papa_Smurf
336 Posts
basically his play overall and how he relates to you. I only see him being scum if you are scum(or sk). I dont see either of those right now | ||
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Papa_Smurf
336 Posts
On September 19 2013 04:56 raynpelikoneet wrote: Uhh.. how does he exactly relate to me? I can't understand a thing you say.. If you look at d1 with your interactions, you could see how you two interact with the thread that would make you both seem town. If you weren't town, the interaction (OP scummier than Pandain stuff) would mean you are both scum (or one scum one sk). As I said, I think you are both town, so doesn't really matter | ||
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Papa_Smurf
336 Posts
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Papa_Smurf
336 Posts
On September 19 2013 07:12 raynpelikoneet wrote: I don't give a fuck about SK now. tbh if i want to lynch SK i want to lynch you over Zealos. You fit the profile far more than Zealos does. Why can't people understand? If we lynch town we probably lose the game. Zealos is not sure to be SK. Why the fuck is everyone i think is anti-town hunting for SK and not scum? It must be because they are anti-town! <3 Hey, I already tried rallying a kush lynch for 3 days. No bites. Not much I can do with that | ||
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Papa_Smurf
336 Posts
The Story of Zealos, The Lone Ranger Debears, esquire Alright, let me start by a basic rundown of standard SK traits (3p in general even). 1) Does not honestly care who gets lynched as long the lynch maintains a balance, and as long it is not the SK himself 2) Wants to maintain a balance of town and scum 3) Traditionally puts no weight into the d1 lynch (becuase the game is "even" at that point) 4) Wants to avoid putting himself out there as a mafia target, while keeping town off of him 5) Wants to target people different from the mafia's targets while keeping people who look scummier than him 6) Want to target people who are suspicious of him Ok. Based off these rules, let's look at Zealos's play, specifically during d1. 1) Zealos's voting trends A) The early/mid day 1 Zealos's voting and reasoning points specifically that he didn't care about any lynch. First Vote - SNB + Show Spoiler + On September 13 2013 21:55 Zealos wrote: ##Vote: strongandbig On September 13 2013 22:11 ShiaoPi wrote: Day 1 Votecount: strongandbig(3): VayneAuthority(0): WaveofShadow(1): kushm4sta Grackaroni(0): kushm4sta(3): Papa_Smurf, Pandain, Old Partner Pandain(0): Old Partner(1): Koshi(0): blubbdavid(3): VayneAuthority, Currently, kushm4sta is set to be lynched (hit 3 first, after blubbdavid went down to 2 again, before coming back up)! Remember, voting is mandatory! Not voting(2): strongandbig, Onegu Next deadline: Deadline date: Friday, Sep 13 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) What I would like to point out is, that, at this point, Zealos's vote wasn't damning on anyone. It was a vote that really didn't matter. Regardless of SNB having a third vote, he was still behind two others as the main lynch candidate (in terms of timing of the third vote). What was his reasoning and how did he push the SNB lynch? + Show Spoiler + On September 13 2013 21:55 Zealos wrote: I don't really know how I can prove that I'm town at this point. I would argue that SnB looks Scummy, while I just look useless, so logic dictates that killing SnB is the best for today, then deciding on me tomorrow, after a bit more time has passed. Zealos's main problem with SNB was his "misrepresentation" of Raynp's meta, which we later pointed out wasn't as big of a deal as Raynp thought. Did Zealos provide new reasoning? No. Did Zealos keep pushing immediately after? No. Those two things show Zealos didn't actually care about gettin SNB lynched, because he would have done it when SNB was a main object of discussion in the thread. After voting for SNB, Zealos later rescinds his scumread On September 14 2013 06:23 Zealos wrote: Rayns mad was making a decent case. SnB is complaining about nitpicking, which in itself is nickpicky. I dunno, it's not a scumread, I just think SnB is half tunnelling Rayn for no good reason. In this, notice Zealos never actually tried to figure out himself whether SNB was scum or town, he just nonchalantly removes his read. B) The Transition Next, Zealos transitions to a vote on Kush once the SNB wagon loses steam. Yet, despite unvoting SNB, he keeps pushing an SNB scumread (after, as pointed out above, that he said SNB wasn't a scumread). + Show Spoiler + On September 14 2013 06:34 Zealos wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: Kush On September 14 2013 05:54 ShiaoPi wrote: Day 1 Votecount: strongandbig(1): VayneAuthority(0): WaveofShadow(0): Grackaroni(0): kushm4sta(3): Pandain(0): Old Partner(6): Koshi(0): blubbdavid(4): VayneAuthority, Zealos(1): raynpelikoneet(0): Currently Old Partner is set to be lynched! Remember, voting is mandatory! Next deadline: Deadline date: Friday, Sep 13 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) Notice, he bailed the SNB wagon shortly after Raynp and Koshi got off it. That tells me he was trying not to stick out, and instead blend in. Meanwhile, look at Zealos's reasoning in thread + Show Spoiler + On September 14 2013 06:34 Zealos wrote: Pandain seems town, so I guess I trust you. Whatever :3 ##Vote: Kush Ok, use pandain as your reasoning for unvoting. Blending in. On September 14 2013 06:42 Zealos wrote: I still think this guy is scum. He's flipping from person to person who he feels are easy targets. If you're gonna write lots, at least try to look like you're being useful~ Shortly after, when his vote is off SNB, he still calls SNB scum. So, he doesn't want to poke his neck out and push his scumread. Definition of blending in and keeping off the radar. C) The Events Leading up to Lynch ************Most important point So, Zealos has been blending in the whole day up to this point. What does he do now? He pushes someone close to lynch that doesn't have votes. Also, he doesn't actually comment on any of the actual lynch candidates himself. + Show Spoiler + On September 14 2013 06:38 ShiaoPi wrote: Day 1 Votecount: strongandbig(0): VayneAuthority(0): WaveofShadow(0): Grackaroni(0): kushm4sta(4): Pandain(0): Old Partner(6): Koshi(0): blubbdavid(4): VayneAuthority, Zealos(1): raynpelikoneet(0): Currently Old Partner is set to be lynched! Remember, voting is mandatory! Next deadline: Deadline date: Friday, Sep 13 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) Look at the votecount. SNB has no votes. Zealos has a vote on Kush (who is also another lynch with no momentum). What is zealos saying in thread? + Show Spoiler + On September 14 2013 06:56 Zealos wrote: I like how Pandain is making points to try and make a lynch happen. Then you get SnB: Post about SNB. Another SNB comment. On September 14 2013 06:57 Zealos wrote: Anyway strong, if you think we shouldn't vote OP, why don't /you/ vote /kush/ Another soft push on a non main candidate. On September 14 2013 06:59 Zealos wrote: Not really time now, but look at my filter and see the amount of time as town I get mislynched after a massive wagon with me trying to tell people that I'm town. I'm pretty sure most times I get lynched as mafia I go out in a blaze of fury. See: My bus versus a teammate in some game a while ago. So he comes back right before lynch, when there is a hard time of determining who is actually getting lynched with lack of votecounts (as shown by Pandain). Ok. This is the main thing that makes me think he is SK. When he didn't post in the thread at 15 minutes before lynch, he was comfortable. One vote on him. Not any serious talk. Suddenly, at 8 minutes he gets a second vote from Grack. Not a big deal, considering blubb had 4, kush had 4, and OP had 5. Then, suddenly at 3 minutes before lynch, votes swap to Zealos. Zealos was posting in thread. What was his reaction? In the quotes shown above, he kept weakly pushing 2 of the weaker lynch candidates. He didn't go crazy trying to save himself. He didn't vote for someone that would save himself. Now think about this situation from the 3 perspectives 1) Town - Chances are you would be following the thread and trying to actually convince people to not vote you and jump on a wagon that would save you. You wouldn't care if that puts you in a spotlight, because you know you are town, and you don't know who else is. 2) Scum - Chances are you would be following thread while posting in the qt. Regardless, you and your team would want you to save yourself and your scumbuddy in OP, and you would know where you lie in votes. If you take a little fire from others, you play the town trying to save yourself as your only confirmed town read. 3) SK - After seeing 3 others with 3 or more votes than you, you would relax. You don't care who gets lynched of the three. You peace out and stop paying attention to the thread. Suddenly, when you come back a few minutes before lynch, you scramble to see where that puts you. With the confusion, you don't want to suddenly vote someone you think might be town, or else that puts you in the spotlight the next day with a last second voteswitch because you would have no backup and know you aren't being truthful. Also, you'd have to deal with pressure the rest of the game. Zealos's unwillingness to push main candidates, or save himself from being lynched, make NO sense from a town or mafia perspective. It does make sense from a comfortable SK perspective. 2) His Reacion to BH's Survivor Claim before the WoS Flip This point has already been brought up, but it is very good. On September 14 2013 07:18 Zealos wrote: I think OP/BH needs to die. Survivor = lynch I doubt he even is Survivor. His attempt to argue his way out of it is crummy, at best. Get it? ##Predayvote:OP vigipls If you look at Zealos's posts around this time, all of them revolve around doubt of BH's claim before the WoS flip. One 3p is pretty reasonable in any 12 or 15 player game. Yet, he is very doubtful of a surivovr claim very early on. Why is that? 1) Town - you don't see 3p claims as realistic in a 12 or 15 player setup. 2) Scum - you wonder if he actually is survivor, or some other 3p (sk), or maybe just a blue disguising himself (very unlikely). 3) SK - two 3p in a 15 player game are super unlikely. You think "this guy be scum doh" as a reaction and subconciously doubt the claim quite a bit immediately. While scum do have a sensible reason of being suspicious of the claim, town don't, and the SK's reason for doubt is very strong. The SK is by far the most likely to doubt the claim (especially considering the d1 lynch was town, he would want scum lynched the next day). 3) Zealos's interesting choice of votes day 2 So, despite being super doubtful of BH's survivor claim in the night, when day comes, Zealos switches all his focus to SNB, his main accuser. Literally, SNB was on Zealos's dick the whole game, and Zealos kept wanting SNB lynched. What does this show? Zealos is basing his priorities for lynch on his own problems. He already know OP was scum (or very likely scum). He didn't need OP killed right away. SNB, on the other hand, was a nuisance for him. Here are some of Zealo's posts + Show Spoiler + On September 16 2013 20:23 Zealos wrote: From what I remember, SnB. He seems very keen to tunnel and not really contribute new ideas, rather hiding in old ones. I'll have to give a lot more reasoning and get some other scumreads when I get home, but SnB just seems very off to me. On September 17 2013 03:04 Zealos wrote: ##Vote: Old Partner FYI On September 17 2013 17:23 Zealos wrote: Still not a fan of SnB. Even now all he's talking about is me. I was also gonna say that I am fairly sure that Umasi is town. Then I saw his cases on me and he's either well meaning but a little off the mark, of looking for a totally irrelevant lynch to avoid one of his mafia teammates dying. I haven't decided yet. Talk about SNB>Vote OP> Continue talking about SNB. 4) Zealos's reactions after the nk on SNB and going into day 3 On September 18 2013 18:04 Zealos wrote: Hmm. First thoughts on the night kill on SnB seems that it makes it too easy to try to get me lynched. Prove he's a townie, then I look bad for pushing him as Scum... What does this quote reveal? Zealos is thinking of his defense before any accuses him. He has a guilty conscience, and he points out how other people would accuse him for scum. Also, his reasoning would be bad if he was town for thinking people would think he's scum. Seriously, look at the thread from the daypost all the way to this quote (quote is around page 145). No one actually says "oh zealos scum since SNB was killed". It's incredibly odd that Zealos would bring up such a thing that demonstrates a guilty conscience as town or scum. It would make sense as a SK though. Finally, what have Zealos's posts and involvement been looking like when he is suddenly the main lynch candidate? On September 19 2013 03:05 Zealos wrote: I'm gonna assume the mason claim is legit for now. Based on the QT, Pan looks pretty town too. This leaves: kushm4sta VayneAuthority Oatsmaster raynpelikoneet Grackaroni Papa_Smurf Sn0_Man I don't think kush is scum. He has been actively hunting all game, including calling me reasonably town. I know myself that I am town, so he hasn't tried to push a mislynch on me. Leaving: VayneAuthority Oatsmaster raynpelikoneet Grackaroni Papa_Smurf Sn0_Man I'm not so much of a fan of rayn anymore. On page 23 for example he goes from voting for me in one post, to calling me town in the next. Hmm. He throws accusations everywhere. Will post more after eating. Wow. Zealos post with more than four lines of his own wording. No definite reads. Just a "look at these guys" post. He's attempting to deflect attention from himself. Summary If you read closely at this case, and at zealos's votes and posting in thread, you can see he does not have a real mafia agenda because he straight up hasn't been involved. However, he has kept up with the thread. Yet, he doesn't post actual reads. His only posting was on "SNB so scum" all day1 and day 2. Also, SNB was killed night 2, and it wasn't by scum (or at least very very very unlikely). The only way the nk wasn't zealos was if someone else, if zealos wasn't sk, was trying to set him up. If that is the case, these things pop in my head. 1) A SK wants to keep people scummier than him around. Why would a SK try to frame Zealos, who has been a discussion of lynch since day 1? The only way for a SK to win is to outlive everyone. A SK has a hard time doing that if all the very townie looking people are still around. 2) A SK wants to keep people who are suspicious of him off himself. Why wouldn't the SK try for someone who actually was onto him to some degree (not that a large majority of SNB's posting was directed at a Zealos scumread). After looking at this case. I would say zealos is 90% likely to flip SK. 8% to flip town. and 2% to flip scum Zealos is SK | ||
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Papa_Smurf
336 Posts
The reason why Umasi and I and Pandain are voting with each other is from the mason talks. Umasi and I both think Pandain is town based on mason chats and overall play. Umasi and I have talked it over a few times, and we feel zealos is the best lynch. We both think (or at least thought) that kush is scum and was the best lynch earlier. With lack of support, we decided to move towards zealos, since he is most likely SK. Considering that Pandain agrees, we are very strongly on the zealos lynch. We do admit there is some stuff going on with Grack, but not enough to overrule a zealos lynch | ||
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Papa_Smurf
336 Posts
On September 19 2013 07:15 raynpelikoneet wrote: These people, Pandain, Grackaroni and debears. They are not trying to find mafia. They are trying to find the SK. They are fucking making cases why someone is SK! They are not questioning anyone, they are not making cases against scum. They are making cases against SK!Zealos. If Zealos flips town there is no fucking way town is going to win this game! just saying. this is fucked up. You should understand at this point Raynp. Here are the scenarios 1) Zealos flips town. The Sk would be looking to kill a mafia tonight. Zealos is eliminated from the pool of mafia players, making it easier for the sk to hit mafia 2) Zealos flips SK. We slow the game down by lowering the kp. There are only two scum left and there are bound to be associations around. 3) Zealos is scum. There are still 2 kp, but we have a better idea of who is the final scum. The SK will be a slight problem, but with only 1 mafia it makes it much easier for us | ||
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Papa_Smurf
336 Posts
On September 19 2013 07:17 raynpelikoneet wrote: debears i am going to tell you now something. IF you somehow manage to lynch Zealos and he flips town you'll get 100% lynched the next day. Then get on the zealos lynch. You can lynch me tomorrow if I'm wrong | ||
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Papa_Smurf
336 Posts
On September 19 2013 08:26 raynpelikoneet wrote: I am going to look at this more closely tomorrow. I am fucking tired. At first glance you have some good points and some points that are not so good. Ignore the "bad" parts and jump for joy at the good ones | ||
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Papa_Smurf
336 Posts
On September 19 2013 08:27 kushm4sta wrote: Why would you need to give an excuse for all being on the same wagon as town?? This is REALLY scummy. SCUMSLIP. HE'S BEEN CALLING PANDAIN SCUM YET JUST GENERALIZED PANDAIN AS TOWN WHEN TALKING ABOUT MY READS, WHICH AGREE WITH PANDAINS DINGDINGDINGDING | ||
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