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On July 09 2013 22:06 Ace wrote:
@jampidampi: Ok I'm going to go with your assumption.
Here's my new thought process.
Rayne does not have nukes. Period. His fake ##nuke Xalatos confirms this.
stuff happens, rayne claims he launched the nuke on MZ. If rayne is Town why would he claim this?
Rayne must assume that the nuke came from Scum. Hence his read on MZ being Town. MZ later flips out when he notices this contradiction.
rayne says he was setting up a gambit to catch scum here.
If this is the way you see it, then I must ask - how would he know the nuke came from scum?
He has a post reasoning why the nuke is from scum:
On July 07 2013 19:50 raynpelikoneet wrote:No it was not me. I think town should claim all their nukes so that we can tell for sure if there is an unclaimed nuke that's from scum. I don't see any downside doing so. Either way if this nuke to MZ is from town, please claim it whoever shot it. If nobody claims it probably means MZ is town, i was wrong, and mafia is trying to frame me.
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On July 09 2013 21:48 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2013 21:38 jampidampi wrote:On July 09 2013 21:29 Ace wrote:On July 09 2013 21:25 Xatalos wrote:On July 09 2013 21:19 Ace wrote:
How is it wrong? Be objective here.
There was a concerted effort to turn around the DI lynch. austincc posts a case on ON. Immediately a band wagon forms. DI defends himself and disappears from the thread. ON defends himself, role claims, and still gets lynched. There are no votes moving off of ON at this time. He flips Town.
MZ figures that rayne must be lying after rayne claims to have nuked him. This is where the doubt on rayne comes from.
I show up and I'm already looking at how the lynch played out. I already note how its going down. I get to MZ's post about rayne, who was instrumental to turning around the DI lynch.
Why would I call out anyone else but rayne? Logically, think about this. I think you seriously are lost because if you can't tell what my opinion on rayne is right now this is pointless. So you believe rayn is lying about his "big play"? Do you mean he's scum and launched the nuke after all? If you believe him on that point (which seems a pretty obvious thing to do IMO), you have no other decent reason to continue. He was just one of many who helped changing the lynch around, and unless DI flips red, it doesn't even prove anything at all. Yes. I believe rayne is scum not only for nuking MZ, but the DI lynch. I'm taking them both together. When geript asked me earlier about why I didn't include him as a suspect this was the same reasoning. Don't think I'm ignoring the entire wagon, I'm just only speaking on rayne right now because it makes no sense to put suspicion on everyone. It won't accomplish anything right now. Can you then point out what makes you think Rayn nuked? I wrote a big post explaining why I think Rayn didn't nuke, what makes my analysis wrong? I think he nuked because I dont think he is dumb enough to nuke MZ just like that as Town. MZ was the one who called him out for lying and I don't think he expected that to happen. All of a sudden it is some big plan he had all along? regarding your post, I don't think he would have launched a nuke at Xata. He had no good reason for doing so. The first person he really went hard on was Chezinu, which would have made the most sense to nuke. Not sending a nuke at the guy he is calling for to be nuked makes no sense here. If he is fake claiming the nuke on MZ it does not add up. It still does not explain why he would just not have nuked Chezinu, and why he would even own up to that nuke in the first place. We don't know who the nuke came from and once MZ caught him in a lie he was stuck.
What else was Rayn "lying" about than launching the nuke?
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On July 09 2013 22:25 geript wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2013 22:21 Xatalos wrote:On July 09 2013 22:19 geript wrote:
Hey Xatalos. I have to disagree with you. At the time, I thought Rayn launched the nuke (obviously). I agree that his actions on congruous and aren't making much sense. He hasn't given any real reasons for why MZ over half a billion other players. Much like Chezinu, he hasn't given any reason for firing it as early as he did either. Neither do I see a town motivation in "looking for a claimer" for your own damn nuke. Wtf? He didn't launch the nuke, so how could he explain his reasons for targeting Meapak? Are you even reading now? I don't believe that he didn't launch the nuke. I'm not seeing a real masterplan behind fake claiming a nuke. As a matter of fact, just after it was launched I was all like "Yo rayn was that you?" Because rayn is that type of player to do shit like that.
I have post here (click the link) detailing why I think Rayn didn't launch the nuke. What makes my analysis wrong?
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Why the fuck was I nuked? Just for not being here? Have yet to read the thread, but I'm not sure if catching up at this point is even worth it. Might as well claim right now.
You are a Immune One! You have no special powers other than that Radiation nukes do not harm you, but do infect you. Each night, you may choose to visit a player. If you are infected with radiation, it will spread to them. You will not be informed if you are infected. Once infected, your infection will last the entire game.
So you better hope that Maju's nuke was a radiation nuke.
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So apparently there was somesort of case on me. Let's start by noting how filled it is with confirmation bias.
+ Show Spoiler [cause it's long] +On July 10 2013 08:47 FirmTofu wrote:FirmTofu's Suspicion Meter™FirmTofu's patented suspicion meter is guaranteed to find scum or your money back! Just read carefully and vote accordingly and you will never be disappointed!Target: jampidampiShow nested quote +On July 07 2013 17:47 jampidampi wrote:Morning! I'd like to bring to your attention a scum suspect that seems to be passing by the sidelines. That man is named FirmTofu. Just read his filter, it isn't long. Infact, it has only one post. This one: On July 07 2013 07:39 FirmTofu wrote:
Reading thread, give me a few minutes. If you look at the post from a townie perspective you'd expect some kind of followup. There's none. Dudes scum. Here we have jampidampi's first post. Let's first establish some context. jampidampi's first post is on page 21. A townie at this point should be looking for people who are actively scummy. He should be actively scumhunting. Instead, we see jampidampi trying to quickly establish town cred by accusing a player(me) who hasn't really contributed to the thread. Sure, it isn't scummy to draw attention to me, but it is scummy to believe that I am the best target to lynch. This play falls more in line with the presumption that jampidampi is scum. Scum jampidampi should be trying to "pretend" he's scumhunting by popping in and accusing lurkers while actually barely contributing at all. Suspicion: +10 Look at the underlined. FirmTofu has already presumed that I'm scum and therefore isn't thinking about it from a perspective that I could be town. jampidampi's filter continues along this same line of thought for quite some time. He continues to avoid causing waves by questioning lurkers who are unlikely to respond to his accusations. Show nested quote +On July 07 2013 18:19 jampidampi wrote:
MajuGarzett is also really suspicious, all he has really done is fling mud onto rayn. Suspicion: +20He does redeem himself however, by saying that Meapak(confirmed town) should be saved. Show nested quote +On July 09 2013 01:17 jampidampi wrote:
Meapak should be saved if possibel, he is totes town. We have to remember that this does not exonerate jampidampi by any means. A scum jampidampi would already know Meapak is town and because Meapak is set to be nuked, he would want to let everyone know that he thinks Meapak is town to establish some town cred. It is tough to say one way or the other, so I consider this quote to be a null read. Suspicion: +0Not though given for a possibility where I'm town. The Damning Evidence:Show nested quote +On July 09 2013 19:39 jampidampi wrote:I don't think rayn lauched the nuke. On July 07 2013 07:08 raynpelikoneet wrote:
##Nuke: Xatalos If he had a nuke, why wouldn't it have been launched here? Unless the nuke could be launched only by a PM to the hosts, rays nuke should have been launched at Xata early D1. On July 07 2013 08:18 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Anyone who has a nuke available nuke geript. He's scum. On July 07 2013 09:27 raynpelikoneet wrote:
SOMEONE NUKE CHEZINU ASAP! HE IS NUKING TOWN! ANTI-NUKE! WHATEVER!
plz On July 07 2013 09:29 raynpelikoneet wrote:
i do not have a nuke. I tell that now. SOMEONE NUKE CHEZINU!
Anyone who is town and has a nuke, nuke Chezinu-. Rayn calling for others to be nuked. If he had a nuke why wouldn't he nuke them himself? On July 07 2013 18:20 raynpelikoneet wrote:
jampidampi look at MZ and tell me what do you see. Here he's asking opinions on Meapak 10 min before mods confirmed the launch. If he's trying to get permission to fire the nuke or confirmation for his scumread wouldn't he wait until after the responses to fire the nuke? If he had already set his mind on nuking Meapak, why ask others for their opinion on Meapak? On July 07 2013 19:50 raynpelikoneet wrote:On July 07 2013 18:31 geript wrote:
@rayn... was that you? No it was not me. I think town should claim all their nukes so that we can tell for sure if there is an unclaimed nuke that's from scum. I don't see any downside doing so. Either way if this nuke to MZ is from town, please claim it whoever shot it. If nobody claims it probably means MZ is town, i was wrong, and mafia is trying to frame me. Rays first post after the launch. If there is no downside for claiming a silent nuke why wouldn't you claim it right then? The bolded is especially odd. If you launched the nuke, why would it pop in to your mind that scum are trying to frame you by nuking your scumread who is actually town? We all know that rayn didn't launch the nuke. How could he? He was VT. jampidampi seems to know this. All of his statements indicate that he already knows that rayn didn't launch the nuke and is trying to discredit rayn. If jampidampi knew that rayn didn't launch the nuke, he must have known who DID.Therefore, jampidampi could either be the townie that launched the nuke OR he could be on the scumteam that launched the nuke. Or instead of discrediting Rayn, I could be trying to resolve situation and bring my analysis to the attention of others. Almost everyone had taken Rays claim of the nuke at face value, believing that he actually launched it. Yet again not a single thought given from the perspective where I'm town. Scenario 1: jampidampi=town
If jampidampi was town and he truly believed that rayn lied about launching the nuke, why didn't he pursue rayn as a lynch target? All he did was try and discredit him! Why would I push a Rayn lunch if I had yet to reach a conclusion of his alignment? You'll notice from my posts that my read on Rayn relied heavily on his potential reasons for fakeclaiming the nuke, which he didn't give until after I had already left. FirmTofu seems to be assuming I'm scum trying to lynch Rayn and is not thinking objectively. Scenario 2: jampidampi=town
This seems to be the most logical conclusion, assuming that jampidampi already knew that rayn didn't launch the nuke.
Therefore, if you believe that jampidampi knew rayn didn't launch the nuke, the most logical approach would be to assume that jampidampi is scum.
Suspicion: +50
Suspicion Meter Report: 80
Suggested Course of Action: Lynch Target
I believe that jampidampi targeted Meapak with the nuke secretly. Once rayn claimed he had launched the nuke, scum jampidampi decided he could discredit him to get free town cred After all, he knew MZ was town and he knew rayn was lying. He knew that, eventually, rayn would cave in to his pressure and be caught lying, placing rayn in a difficult position.
Then for the actual response.
+ Show Spoiler [cause this is long too] +On July 10 2013 08:47 FirmTofu wrote:FirmTofu's Suspicion Meter™FirmTofu's patented suspicion meter is guaranteed to find scum or your money back! Just read carefully and vote accordingly and you will never be disappointed!Target: jampidampiShow nested quote +On July 07 2013 17:47 jampidampi wrote:Morning! I'd like to bring to your attention a scum suspect that seems to be passing by the sidelines. That man is named FirmTofu. Just read his filter, it isn't long. Infact, it has only one post. This one: On July 07 2013 07:39 FirmTofu wrote:
Reading thread, give me a few minutes. If you look at the post from a townie perspective you'd expect some kind of followup. There's none. Dudes scum. Here we have jampidampi's first post. Let's first establish some context. jampidampi's first post is on page 21. A townie at this point should be looking for people who are actively scummy. He should be actively scumhunting. Instead, we see jampidampi trying to quickly establish town cred by accusing a player(me) who hasn't really contributed to the thread. Sure, it isn't scummy to draw attention to me, but it is scummy to believe that I am the best target to lynch. This play falls more in line with the presumption that jampidampi is scum. Scum jampidampi should be trying to "pretend" he's scumhunting by popping in and accusing lurkers while actually barely contributing at all. Suspicion: +10jampidampi's filter continues along this same line of thought for quite some time. He continues to avoid causing waves by questioning lurkers who are unlikely to respond to his accusations. Show nested quote +On July 07 2013 18:19 jampidampi wrote:
MajuGarzett is also really suspicious, all he has really done is fling mud onto rayn. Suspicion: +20 If the town is full of lurkers, why would scum step up and become active? Why wouldn't they just lurk it out? Wouldn't is make more sense that there were probably many scum hiding amonst the lurkers? And wouldn't it therefore make more sense if I looked at the mentioned group of people? He does redeem himself however, by saying that Meapak(confirmed town) should be saved. Show nested quote +On July 09 2013 01:17 jampidampi wrote:
Meapak should be saved if possibel, he is totes town. We have to remember that this does not exonerate jampidampi by any means. A scum jampidampi would already know Meapak is town and because Meapak is set to be nuked, he would want to let everyone know that he thinks Meapak is town to establish some town cred. It is tough to say one way or the other, so I consider this quote to be a null read. Suspicion: +0The Damning Evidence:Show nested quote +On July 09 2013 19:39 jampidampi wrote:I don't think rayn lauched the nuke. On July 07 2013 07:08 raynpelikoneet wrote:
##Nuke: Xatalos If he had a nuke, why wouldn't it have been launched here? Unless the nuke could be launched only by a PM to the hosts, rays nuke should have been launched at Xata early D1. On July 07 2013 08:18 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Anyone who has a nuke available nuke geript. He's scum. On July 07 2013 09:27 raynpelikoneet wrote:
SOMEONE NUKE CHEZINU ASAP! HE IS NUKING TOWN! ANTI-NUKE! WHATEVER!
plz On July 07 2013 09:29 raynpelikoneet wrote:
i do not have a nuke. I tell that now. SOMEONE NUKE CHEZINU!
Anyone who is town and has a nuke, nuke Chezinu-. Rayn calling for others to be nuked. If he had a nuke why wouldn't he nuke them himself? On July 07 2013 18:20 raynpelikoneet wrote:
jampidampi look at MZ and tell me what do you see. Here he's asking opinions on Meapak 10 min before mods confirmed the launch. If he's trying to get permission to fire the nuke or confirmation for his scumread wouldn't he wait until after the responses to fire the nuke? If he had already set his mind on nuking Meapak, why ask others for their opinion on Meapak? On July 07 2013 19:50 raynpelikoneet wrote:On July 07 2013 18:31 geript wrote:
@rayn... was that you? No it was not me. I think town should claim all their nukes so that we can tell for sure if there is an unclaimed nuke that's from scum. I don't see any downside doing so. Either way if this nuke to MZ is from town, please claim it whoever shot it. If nobody claims it probably means MZ is town, i was wrong, and mafia is trying to frame me. Rays first post after the launch. If there is no downside for claiming a silent nuke why wouldn't you claim it right then? The bolded is especially odd. If you launched the nuke, why would it pop in to your mind that scum are trying to frame you by nuking your scumread who is actually town? We all know that rayn didn't launch the nuke. How could he? He was VT. jampidampi seems to know this. All of his statements indicate that he already knows that rayn didn't launch the nuke and is trying to discredit rayn. If jampidampi knew that rayn didn't launch the nuke, he must have known who DID.Therefore, jampidampi could either be the townie that launched the nuke OR he could be on the scumteam that launched the nuke. Scenario 1: jampidampi=town If jampidampi was town and he truly believed that rayn lied about launching the nuke, why didn't he pursue rayn as a lynch target? All he did was try and discredit him! Scenario 2: jampidampi=townThis seems to be the most logical conclusion, assuming that jampidampi already knew that rayn didn't launch the nuke.Therefore, if you believe that jampidampi knew rayn didn't launch the nuke, the most logical approach would be to assume that jampidampi is scum.Suspicion: +50Suspicion Meter Report: 80Suggested Course of Action: Lynch TargetI believe that jampidampi targeted Meapak with the nuke secretly. Once rayn claimed he had launched the nuke, scum jampidampi decided he could discredit him to get free town cred After all, he knew MZ was town and he knew rayn was lying. He knew that, eventually, rayn would cave in to his pressure and be caught lying, placing rayn in a difficult position. I don't see how my post in any way implies I knew Rayn didn't launch the nuke. You don't even rationalize why the most core part of your suspicion is true, you just state it and leave it as it is.
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On July 11 2013 20:51 Onegu wrote:
So there are 3 immune ones in the game?
If you believe Chezinu and johnnywup there are also three poeple with timed nukes, so I don't why there couldn't be three Immune ones.
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And what going on with terrible nuker? Maju has never even mentioned me before others mention he could nuke me. Just look at this post: On July 11 2013 15:25 MajuGarzett wrote:
So 2 people want me to nuke jampi. I'm fine with doing that though I do want more input since some people posting haven't responded. I want to nuke VA. Please give opinions. I'm also okay with nuking any of the lurkers if that's what's wanted. I'll probably launch the nuke in 2 hours. He's just looking to nuke a target that town won't give him flack for, not actually looking for the best target. He has had scumread on VA since he ever mentioned anything about his reads, yet instead of nuking his scumread he nukes me.
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Well, gumshoe was gone for a long time aswell and he has done jackshit. Why wasn't he considered for nuking?
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OMG wtf I was actually saved? Didn't expect that to happen. I'm sorry for being too emotinal in the way I handeled the nuke at me.
Majus scum. Since I don't like repeating points, here is something new for you to analyse:
On July 11 2013 13:40 MajuGarzett wrote:
Ok guys I have a nuke.
Since it seems I might be lynched I have to use it by 10:00 GMT (+00:00) or the town loses a kill for nothing.
Who should I nuke? On July 11 2013 13:40 MajuGarzett wrote:
EBWOP
Actually town would lose a kill and a townie which is worse than nothing.
See how he forget here that he's a townie?
Gumshoe is also scum. If you look at his filter in Basterd Mini http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=418641&user=gumshoe and compare it to his filter in this game, you'll notice a big difference. Gumshoe post long, insightful and analytical posts in Basterd, but they are nowhere to be seen here. Simple explanation: he's scum.
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Is there actually any way for me to redeem myself right now?
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On July 12 2013 06:08 Ace wrote:
jamp, how did you read that last set of posts as him forgetting he is Town?
If he was town, would he have the need to add that town looses a townie? If he was scum however, wouldn't he feel that he missed the point where he is townie and thus corrected it?
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On July 12 2013 06:10 Ace wrote:
actually jamp - how come you believed rayne so easily on Day 1 even though he was confirmed to be lying? How did you figure out the plan so easily? You haven't been posting much, so how did you get such an accurate read?
How was rayn a lier on D1?
I spent a lot time of rayn, since his claim of the nuke didn't make sense. Xatalos had posted this: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=418049¤tpage=79#1574, pointing out many things not making sense about the claim. I tried to form my own conclusions about rays alignment, but it didn't seem likely that rayn had actually launched the nuke given the evidence. I'll admit that I chose to focus on the issue because it was easy to think and post about it, but for me it was a good to aproach a huge filter like rays. Whenever I'm faced with a huge filter my thoughs wander everywhere and focusing on something like claim first helps unravel parts of the motivations behind the posts, thus making it easier to analyse the rest.
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On July 12 2013 06:20 Z-BosoN wrote:
@jampi
Who are your top scumreads right now?
Maju and Gumshoe. Are you even reading?
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scumreads already mentioned, Xatalos, geript, Ace, Onegu and CaucasianAsian (weak read) are town. haven't have time to check austin, can't make sense from johnny, vayne or chezinu, rest pretty much null
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On July 12 2013 06:28 geript wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2013 06:27 jampidampi wrote:
scumreads already mentioned, Xatalos, geript, Ace, Onegu and CaucasianAsian (weak read) are town. haven't have time to check austin, can't make sense from johnny, vayne or chezinu, rest pretty much null Why the town reads on Onegu and CA?
Thye seemed to be genuine in their posting.
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On July 12 2013 06:30 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2013 06:27 jampidampi wrote:
scumreads already mentioned, Xatalos, geript, Ace, Onegu and CaucasianAsian (weak read) are town. haven't have time to check austin, can't make sense from johnny, vayne or chezinu, rest pretty much null Any reasonings behind any of your reads? It's not hard for scum to just pull some "reads" out of thin air.
Ace is town for trying to get to know my alignment.
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On July 12 2013 06:27 VayneAuthority wrote:
Actually I just went back to I swear this is mini mafia and cross analyzed jampi there where he got mislynched day 1 and his play here is very different. I am fairly convinced he is scum now.
When he flipped town there he actually gave reasons for his scum/town reads and contributed to the thread before he died, here he is a lot angrier/slinging shit. He only came back to the thread once he realized he was saved by geript.
##unvote
##vote: Jampi
Says the one who claims that his meta is different every single game.
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On July 12 2013 06:27 VayneAuthority wrote:
Actually I just went back to I swear this is mini mafia and cross analyzed jampi there where he got mislynched day 1 and his play here is very different. I am fairly convinced he is scum now.
When he flipped town there he actually gave reasons for his scum/town reads and contributed to the thread before he died, here he is a lot angrier/slinging shit. He only came back to the thread once he realized he was saved by geript.
##unvote
##vote: Jampi
Actually, how did you end up with that conclusion? Here is my filter for reference: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=415754&user=jampidampi
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This is how I gave my reasons for my reads in I Swear Mafia
On June 11 2013 10:55 jampidampi wrote:
ShiaoPi town
pure gut
Axle town
lays down his whole thought process in the thread
Gravity town
seems to actually want to find alignments of people
others null
all gut reads
How is that any more reasoning than what I have given here?
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Read my filter in I Swear Mafia. Compare it my filter in this game. If you think a town Vayne, who is know to be highly analytical, could missrepresent the differences like this, then please tell me how. There is no way he came to those conclusions. Vayne is scum.
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EPT
