EPT[T] Nuclear Winter Mafia - Page 135
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
Now I'm pretty sure I'm on the right track though. I ask every player to take a good look at this post and point out if there are any mistakes or flawed logic. Unless I'm somehow severely mistaken, I think I've confidently found 2 scum (austinmcc and MajuGarzett). Everyone go read their filters through carefully! I've divided this post into three parts: 1) scum, 2) 3rd party and 3) townreads. The first part includes those to be lynched next, the second one includes some interesting and IMO likely correct speculation (shouldn't be taken as holy truth though), and the third one includes my townreads (which I'm pretty confident in). 1) Scum austinmcc 1) Marvellosity once coached me and gave me valuable pointers on how to find scum. I just remembered one of them that fits austinmcc absolutely perfectly: "people happy to start a wagon but then fade into the background again". austinmcc has done that twice now. He made a case on ON, voted on him first and started fading into the background. Then he voted first on jampidampi (without really much of a case this time though) and started fading into the background (at least he made some reasonable posts this time around, maybe because I criticized him about the last time, but none of those had any impact really). 2) Completely apathetic attitude throughout D1 (and later on as well, only less obviously). 3) Main reason for saving DI/XigXag (scum) D1 with his case - "null" read on MajuGarzett and conveniently goes for jampidampi instead 4) Intentionally avoided talking about rayn's claim - "others were already talking about it" (would a town ever say this?) 5) Half-assed suspicions without really even calling the player scum/scummy (on Oatsmaster and FirmTofu) 6) Pumped me for reads at the end of N1 (I should have realized that it was probably used by him to decide if he should NK me or not... apparently I wasn't correct enough I guess) MajuGarzett 1) His first content-post is very... weak and careful, basically focusing to just doing something for the sake of doing something and staying off the radar 2) Same theme continues with his second content-post during D2... weak and careful, nothing decisive or new to the discussion 3) Lots of useless fluff that appears semi-contributive on first look 4) A vague show of "interest" to rayn's claim, then conveniently going away until the matter was more or less already resolved These two players NEED to die ASAP. I'm willing to bet even a temporary ban from TL.net or something like that if one of these flips town after all. I'm torn on the remaining scum. VayneAuthority seems scummy for pursuing MajuGarzett all the way (until jampidampi started piling votes) - then he just suddenly voted jampidampi with some random meta reason........ What? But there's the huge problem of them basically wanting each other dead for large periods of time. Double bussing so hard? Feels a bit unlikely. strongandbig's vote for DI during D1 seemed extremely much like bussing/distancing. He voted "because I don't like him". Lol? Goes well with the theory of some scum going for the bus/distancing for DI's eventual red flip. His roleclaim seems to have actually been somewhat breadcrumbed, but I doubt only town would have Immune Ones... strongandbig tunneling VayneAuthority makes them quite unlikely scum together. Stutters695, Z-Boson, Chezinu.... They're also plausible scum. Maybe even johnnywup after all. Hard to say about them though (except I have something else to say about Z-Boson next). 2) 3rd Party I'm going to make some major assumptions in this part. As such, this part can hardly be called conclusive - more like relatively safe speculation. First we have this in the rules: "There may or may not be third party multiple nuke firing planar dragons in this game." This suggests that there is somewhat likely a 3rd party capable of launching nukes (maybe even more than one, although that's extremely unlikely given the lack of more than 1 stealth nuke per day). We have so far had 2 stealth nukes in the game. The first one was on Meapak - a reasonable scum nuke. The second one was on Ace - a not so reasonable scum nuke. Ace's town credit is a lot better at the moment, but at the time rayn had just made a major case against him, I was pushing him and several people were considering him for lynch. It would have made much more sense to nuke someone actually townish and respected/trusted. There's also still a possibility of Ace playing a really good scum game, in which case this nuke would make absolutely zero sense as a scum nuke. However! It all makes sense if it comes from a 3rd party (some kind of nuke-launching SK apparently). He's obviously not going to claim the nuke (zero reason to do so). He's also not going to nuke the most townish and thus anti-scum players, but rather players who he wants dead for his own reasons (this behaviour fits Ace well and actually even Meapak - Meapak started really appearing pro-town only AFTER he was nuked, not before! - this means that the nuke on Meapak doesn't make too much sense from a scum perspective either). Not only did both of those nukes have unclear motivations behind them (not necessarily pro-town, not necessarily anti-town). What's more, they were both launched 1) with the same kind of stealth mechanism 2) soon after the day (D1/D2) had started 3) without claiming. This leads me to a (IMO) pretty safe assumption: both of those nukes came from the same 3rd party player. I'll also make one more, in my mind reasonable assumption. I doubt the 3rd party would have another powerful active ability in addition to launching these nukes. Probably he has some sort of passive ability (immune to nukes, bulletproof etc.). But it feels a bit too much to have something like multiple nukes + passive ability (3rd party almost always has something like this) + anti-nuke etc. You don't necessarily have to agree with this assumption, even though I think it's reasonable - then you can just skip this one assumption and proceed without it. But if we remove players who have been proven to have used powerful active abilities so far (Sentinel, Chezinu, Oatsmaster, WaveofShadow, MajuGarzett, geript, johnnywup, Stutters695 - why would he lie about giving a nuke to Ace and risk being counterclaimed?) we have these players left as options: Koshi Z-Boson Ace Onegu VayneAuthority strongandbig gumshoe CaucasianAsian Alakasam FirmTofu austinmcc This is a big list. So I'll remove those whom I think are likely town atm: Z-Boson VayneAuthority strongandbig austinmcc My pick for the 3rd party out of these would be Z-Boson. Why? I get a weird feeling from him. He doesn't seem to have either a town agenda OR a scum agenda! Let's see his actions: Scummy: - Very uninvolved in the game specifically close to deadlines (D1 randomly votes CA, D2 sheeps me to jampidampi) - His posts don't feel that spontaneous even though they include a lot of one-liners - He isn't really pushing things or impacting the game, despite having a solid amount of posts (some of them even with decent content) Not scummy: - Has some genuine-looking scumhunting (looks like he doesn't really know who the scum are) - not only that, but he focuses a lot on austinmcc (very likely scum IMO) - Has some posts where he looks like he's figuring something out about the scumteam This read is more of a speculation, but keep it in mind  3) Townreads Koshi Clearly putting in effort and trying to scumhunt. Oatsmaster Saved me. Saved Ace. Reasonably active. Sentinel Nuked XigXag (scum). Ace Reacted townishly to being nuked. Tunneled XigXag (scum). Onegu Genuine-feeling posts and especially a genuine-feeling roleclaim all around. geript Active, pushing and changing his opinions logically (unless you count his role usage... WTF???). gumshoe Doesn't seem hesitant to talk about anything, even matters negative for him (early on the meta point, recently also that new scum meta point). CaucasianAsian Somewhat confusing posts, but seems to write what he's thinking (hard to imagine scum faking all that lol). Alakasam Carefree and spontaneous posting style. WaveofShadow Saved Meapak. Reasonably active. FirmTofu Heavily pushing his own opinions. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
There are three things that need to be cleared up for us to win this game. First is this list: Xatalos jampi (dead) Onegu SnB All of them claim to have the same role, but can visit targets at night while being immune to radiation iirc. I doubt radiation is a good thing. All four being town isn't possible. 4 town roles able to run around infecting people just isn't a pro-town system. Deal with this. 2 of them that are alive also were on the wrong side of both Town lynches. Xatalos looks more Town than Onegu. snb has been mia and should be pressed. The 2nd thing is the ON/DI wagon and the jampi/Maju wagon. This is a little more inconclusive until Maju flips. As sson as he flips DO NOT forget to go back and check this out for common names and bs reasons. The last thing is the lurkers. I'm certain most of the active players are town. If not we are a bit screwed barring a miracle. We cant really kill the people playing active because if they flip Town we are all fucked as the game will fall into lurkers + scum. Be VERY careful with reads on active players. Find out who is secret nuking also. Gl. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12973 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On July 13 2013 05:53 FirmTofu wrote: This is hilarious. Ace, what nuke type did you receive? Stutters, what nuke type did you send? Why has neither player bothered to inform us of either of these beforehand? I'm with Austin on this. Stutters has previous knowledge that he is not telling us. It looks like he deliberately fabricated parts of his role pm. We have a detective case on your hands, my friends. normal nuke. I read Stutters say he sent it at night iirc, but I got the PM during the middle of the day. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12973 Posts
Day 3 ![[image loading]](http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02319/g_2319336b.jpg) "There's an emergency going on." The AI in Moscow said. FirmTofu knew it was bad news. "What is it, computer?" He frighteningly asked. "It's still going on." The AI replied. FirmTofu realized he planned his AI quite poorly. He wanted to take a look, but not before he secured his legacy. He sent a package underway to a comrade before stepping towards the breached entrance, gun in hand. "Who's there?! I'm not afraid!" he shouted. "You should be." a voice said as the lights went dark. FirmTofu started shooting wildly around him, but all it did was reveal his location as a bullet entered his temple. A day later, Xatalos called in to the FedEx, asking if there was news on his package. "We have received the package and it is en route to you now. It should arrive within an hour." a voice replied. "Excellent!" Xatalos knew what he had been promised and was desperate to use it to help his side in winning the cold war. The doorbell rang, and he answered. He noticed a tall man wearing a long brown coat and a blue FedEx badge carrying a package. He opened the door. "I have a package for a Xalatos." the man said. "Yes, that's me!" [blue]Xalatos enthousiastically replied. "Excellent, then this is yours." The man grabbed a gun out of his coat and shot Xalatos in cold blood, then left the package on his still warm corpse. FirmTofu the Russian Technician has been killed! + Show Spoiler + You are a Russian Technician! Working for the motherland, you produce one nuke per two cycles. You may PM me to whom you would like to give the nuke. Your first nuke will be done on night 2. Xatalos the Immune One has been killed! + Show Spoiler + You are a Immune One! You have no special powers other than that Radiation nukes do not harm you, but do infect you. Each night, you may choose to visit a player. If you are infected with radiation, it will spread to them. You will not be informed if you are infected. Once infected, your infection will last the entire game. it is now Day 3! You have until Sunday, Jul 14 9:59pm GMT (GMT+00:00) to vote. Nukes can be launched until Sunday, Jul 14 9:59am GMT (GMT+00:00).[/b] | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
 Have a look through my filter, I have a few hidden gems  | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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[UoN]Sentinel
United States11320 Posts
##Vote: Stutters695 | ||
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
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geript
10024 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On July 13 2013 07:18 geript wrote: @Ace. You know that stutters said it wouldn't work... Why fire it? He's the 100% lynch. Pretty sure he said it may not work, not that it is for sure false. Assuming Stutters gave me a dud nuke and is Scum, he wouldn't have known I would aim for Maju who may also be scum. If it is a dud we just lynch Maju anyway. I think the voting should come down to SnB and Onegu now that we know jampi and Xatalos were town IO. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
I had to shut up for a while because I have a whole bunch of stuff I'd like to do/say. I figured since pretty much everyone has me as a townread right now if I drew any attention to myself I'd be shot. Assuming my guy ACTUALLY decides to sleep for once, expect a LOT more from me in the next few days. That is a promise. QUIVER IN FEAR, SCUM. | ||
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geript
10024 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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geript
10024 Posts
[QUOTE]On July 13 2013 07:18 geript wrote: I think the voting should come down to SnB and Onegu now that we know jampi and Xatalos were town IO. [/QUOTE] Why not fire into those instead? And then lynch them later if it doesn't work. Either way. We need to lynch Maju still for certainty | ||
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geript
10024 Posts
On July 13 2013 07:24 Ace wrote: and we'll wait till we see if this nuke is legit before doing so. FirmTofu could also produce nukes, so he probably gave one to an active player so we still have options. He gave it to Xat... | ||
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