EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XLIII
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Hurricane Sponge
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Hurricane Sponge
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Hurricane Sponge
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Hurricane Sponge
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Hurricane Sponge
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On June 22 2013 12:03 Im a pedophile wrote: /in Easiest scum read of my life. | ||
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On June 22 2013 13:12 StiMaDDict wrote: Uhh, she's my friend that is new to forum mafia and TL forum... I persuaded her to play with me :X Forgive her for me this once. Please? Is there a way to change the account name? else I will tell her to make another account. Wait, wait, wait. Let me get this straight. Your friend is a lady who, when given literally endless possibilities of user name options, chooses 'Im A Pedophile' as her account name in a new internet community? You know what, I changed my mind. That is Town as FUCK. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
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I'm gonna go ahead and post the play I had written earlier this week analyzing this game from a pro-town perspective. If any of my analysis is off-base, please jump in and steer me back on track. Pre-written segment starts now: Alright, chums. First let me state that in NO WAY is the following message a call for a mass claim. If you are the Parity Cop (assuming you even exist), DO NOT SAY SO. In fact, if you're our town's parity cop, it's probably better if you appear to ignore what I'm about to say completely. Same goes for Trackers and Watchers. DO NOT CLAIM. But read carefully, because you are a big part of whether we succeed or fail (whether we follow my plan or not). Now everyone, pay attention: Looking over the roles, the extremely juicy pro-town potential jumped right off the page at me, as I hope it did to many of you. Trackers can tell us if a person visits someone. Pretty good, but not nearly as good as the Watcher, who can pick a person and sees all who visit them. Obviously, this means we can try to guess the guy who's going to be mafia-killed, and we have a couple shots at seeing if he either gets visited, or manage to Track the mafia member who happens to be tagged to do the deed. Not great odds on either, but still better than nothing. My plan utilizes each role to their maximum potential. Because we are not guaranteed to have a Tracker, Watcher, or even a Parity Cop, it's important that for the roles we DO get, we use them efficiently. The Watcher needs to guess the target they think will be mafia-killed tonight. This is up to your judgement, but I'll make a recommendation later today. The fun part comes with the Tracker and the Nosy Neighbor (and by extension Parity Cop). The Tracker should secretly track the Nosy Neighbor. AGAIN, MR. OR MRS. TRACKER: DO NOT CLAIM NOW. If we have a Nosy Neighbor, they should claim IMMEDIATELY. Once the Tracker can confirm that the Nosy Neighbor is in fact moving around at night, but not visiting the person who got Mafia-killed, WE CAN ESTABLISH HIM AS TOWN. This is a big deal. The Parity Cop can then tag the confirmed Nosy Neighbor as Town and start measuring up suspects against them. If he gets a 'Different' claim, the other person is Scum. If he gets 'Same', they are town. I can elaborate further, but I feel like you can all piece together whatever holes are out there without me holding your hand even further. This is an extremely pro-town set-up (assuming there aren't a bunch of red herrings in which case, Hi I'm sponge, and I just gave you all the book on me.) and I'd like to move fast before mafia can organize their thoughts in their private little forum. If we move fast, and force independent action, they lose one of their many advantages. | ||
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To me, everyone who is posting one-liners looks spammy to me, but I think the 'everyone is scum until they convince me otherwise' mentality isn't the worst thing in the world. Spicy and Xzavier are on my radar for the fluff and nonsense at the beginning. Chromatically and FirmTofu seem the most town as they were very quick to point out what were (in their view) flaws in a plan to move forward that may have compromised the town. | ||
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On June 24 2013 11:03 Xzavier wrote: Spicy <3 hello again. On June 24 2013 11:20 Xzavier wrote: yup, im watching fullmetal alchemist then between episodes or every 5-10 min refreshing this. Okay i lie, i have 2 windows open and im spamming F5 on this page. Right now conversation is just picking up. Its smalltalk lol, then somebody is like: HEY FUCK YOU ##VOTE then shit gets real On June 24 2013 11:38 Xzavier wrote: hes the sexiest motherfucker alive. obviously. also town. On June 24 2013 11:31 Xzavier wrote: witch-hunting witch-hunting everywhere.... i feel the need to say everything that pops into my mind. obviously On June 24 2013 11:21 Xzavier wrote: jesus somebody went a long way to post alot of nothing xD None of this is useable for me. That could just be me sucking at reads (no, really. This is a possibility), but none of this material brings anything new to the table for me or encourages serious scum-hunting discussion. | ||
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On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote: Hey everyone On June 24 2013 11:09 Spicydinosaur wrote: Please point out and explain exactly what you think is scummy. On June 24 2013 11:17 Spicydinosaur wrote: Not taking it super seriously, just busting you back. I posted in the thread then went back to reddit. Checked the thread again after a few minutes. I'll be around tonight and early tomorrow morning. And hey Xzavier. He later comes in with some actual(if not elegant) points on the game, but they're both just him defending his play in previous games: On June 24 2013 11:53 Spicydinosaur wrote: Sheeping off of others opinions already? Also heres the QT chat i was referring too. Though i dont know how to post to a specific QT box Heres the QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/YXgCU77iVMsa and its posts: 11, 16, 21. Spicydinosaur http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=18810769 Furthermore you should look back at my other 2 games if you want to see what my openings were. They too were different. Not my favorite play in the world, but at least it's content. | ||
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On June 24 2013 12:28 FirmTofu wrote: Yeah, he's spammy, sure. Yeah, he hasn't contributed much, sure. Unfortunately, there are plenty of people who haven't contributed and spam is ok at this point because there isn't a whole lot to talk about. I don't this is sufficient evidence to justify a lynch. Sorry, I'm not making a case for a lynch right this second. I'm responding to Chromatically who asked me to validate my point when I called Xzavier and Spicy's posts full of 'fluff and nonsense'. I should have quoted his question to be clear. Side note: Spam may be 'ok' right now in the eyes of the Meta, but I still don't have to like it. Call it a pet peeve. I will always prefer people bringing meaningful content forward rather than cluttering up the board. (Big leap, I know.) | ||
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On June 24 2013 12:34 Spicydinosaur wrote: EBWOP: posted after hurricane posted his "case" against me. I dont see how responding to two questions makes me scum now. He asked why so scummy which is a bs question so i responded as such. Then he asked why i didnt post right away... and i said why. We have differing definitions of spam. For me, multiple posts of one-liners are spam. The first question you responded to didn't necessitate the response it got. For reference: On June 24 2013 11:09 Spicydinosaur wrote: Please point out and explain exactly what you think is scummy. Kind of an over-reaction, no? You seem to be getting really defensive at everyone who mentions your name. | ||
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On June 24 2013 12:35 Xzavier wrote: Fuck me, i just typed somethign really nice all out and accidentally switched windows. Take two: First actual post of this game: This is my first game involving tracker/watcher/ect. Okay, from what iv learned so far is that town has some borderline useless roles (tracker watcher) The opprotunities where they would be beneficial are so rare that its hardly useful, and with the exisance of a NN it could all be BS. So there really is barely any information to gain, and if you do get any of this slightly more than useless info, its unreliable. But, the flipside. We have Parity cop who can effectively check two people every night. He shouldnt claim. Unless he is getting lynched (and we will still lynch you, mind this) You should say who you have found as scum, or confirmed town. You can take your strongest town read and then strongest scum read, and compare them. if the are two different alignments, its pretty obvious who is who. IF you REALLY want to play like a traditional cop. then select one of the two names as yourself, this way you can see if they are the same alignment as you (town) or not (scum) Seriously OP imo ^^ we also hav veteran/vigi who are strong roles as well. And as shown by last game, JK can be stupidly good as well. I like this setup for town, Framer does make things tricky, but the cop check is still reliable (odds of you two picking same target are rare, this is why you shouldnt claim if you think you have found 1 scum alone anyway, IF he was fraimed: our cop is dead and we lose a townie). Framer is actually a rather strong role in and of itself. I still like this setup. basically all the tracker/watcher/NN stuff looks borderline useless to me, as iv already stated. Obviously nobody should claim. But they arnt the strongest of roles. When I first read the role descriptions, I thought the town roles were actually very powerful. Granted there's a bit of noise with the NN, but if the watcher correctly guesses who the mafia is killing, that's a guaranteed red name in his or her pocket. Tracker, I'm inclined to agree with you on, but I'm sure a good player will be able to get significant mileage out of that role, especially as it gets down to 2 mafia and the Tracker has a 50/50 shot at picking the person delivering the KP if they have good reads on who is scum. Just making sure you understand the significant power of these roles in case this was a cry for help from a player who isn't sure how to wield their hammer. | ||
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Xzavier, I assume you're not going to be defending your early content so vehemently? | ||
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On June 24 2013 12:52 Onegu wrote: Haveing a early day one post about reveals is very bad, no matter how good or bad someones role is. You have to remember scum have a tracker also so if they track the NN to someone they get a stronger read he is blue than just NN, if it is revealed then scum tracker doesnt have to worry about that possibility and just blue hunt. Second it isnt a big deal to confirm someone as town, it is a big deal to confirm someone as scum. You idea has alot of holes and the logic behind it is terribad. As such you are noob town to me. Wait, hold on. Is it confirmed that there is a scum-side Tracker? I would not have proposed such a plan if this game was guaranteed to have Mafia spawn with a Tracker. I know that it was POSSIBLE for them to have a tracker. But I was unaware that it was so likely as to be a certainty. Also, in this game it IS a big deal to confirm someone as town since we may have a Parity Cop. Regardless, my idea is a non-starter and doesn't need to be discussed as an actual plan of action further. (It can obviously still be discussed by people wanting to make cases for and against me.) Perhaps I'm some brilliant mastermind who just wanted to draw out the players who could see the flaw in this plan. (Spoiler: I'm not.) I'm still not 100% convinced that the idea is without merit, but this is likely user error on my part. | ||
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On June 24 2013 13:06 Onegu wrote: It is possible they dont have one but in the last few games they have given scum 2 blue abilitys and since there are only a few possible roles this time it is 50/50 they have one This sort of meta-reliant logic is incredibly dangerous, but thank you for responding. I have not followed the tendencies of these games, so I appreciate you sharing this information with me. | ||
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On June 24 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote: You wound me. Regarding claims I'm of the opinion that the Nosy Neighbour/Alpha 5 should claim now. This role is similar to a Miller in that it isn't useful for town at all, and could seriously backfire if they are watched/tracked/whatever by a townie. I don't see any downside to a Nosy Neighbour claiming, the worst case is that they play obvtown, get shot, and draw a shot away from actual town power roles. The biggest reason a Nosy Neighbour should claim now is that it eliminates the possibility of a scum fake-claiming it later if he is caught shooting/using a PR on someone. If we establish that a Nosy Neighbour should claim now, anyone claiming it later is caught scum. Obviously, scum can claim Nosy Neighbour so whoever claims it isn't confirmed town by any means. No other power roles should claim, that would be daft. (However, scum should feel free to claim their roles.) Regarding scum Current scumread is Chromatically for two reasons. 1) I don't like the feel of his initial posts. Making troll-cases to get the game rolling is fine, I have no objection to that in as of itself, but there's a certain nit-picking quality to his posts that feels wrong to me. Trying to read something into someone not posting for five minutes is ludicrous. 2) He's been doing a lot of asking other people for their reads while offering nothing even approaching one of his own. ##Vote: Chromatically The argument against NN/ Alpha 5 claiming as it was explained to me in this thread is that it won't take a shot away from the power roles, but in fact do the opposite. Mafia might keep him around all game and take shots at the OTHER people since there is now a higher % chance that they are Power Roles. But what if our Parity Cop claimed NN! Brb WIFOM Hell. (That was joke.) There are apparently a lot of other reasons NN should not claim now, but I'm not in the best position to elaborate since they are not my thoughts. | ||
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On June 24 2013 13:37 Aquanim wrote: That's certainly a possibility, but I think it's more important that we deny scum the opportunity to fakeclaim Nosy Neighbour later. Unfortunately, you're assuming that there is only one Nosy Neighbor. There is a lot of assuming going on about power roles in this thread that I'm not comfortable with. Is this just because I haven't followed TL's brand of mafia long enough to pick up on meta role assignments? | ||
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On June 24 2013 12:35 Xzavier wrote: But, the flipside. We have Parity cop who can effectively check two people every night. He shouldnt claim. Unless he is getting lynched (and we will still lynch you, mind this) You should say who you have found as scum, or confirmed town. You can take your strongest town read and then strongest scum read, and compare them. if the are two different alignments, its pretty obvious who is who. IF you REALLY want to play like a traditional cop. then select one of the two names as yourself, this way you can see if they are the same alignment as you (town) or not (scum) Is this allowed? Would a Parity Cop be able to select himself as one of the two people for his investigation? | ||
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On June 24 2013 16:26 Aquanim wrote: First, scum is unlikely to claim NN day 1 for fear of being counter-claimed. Somebody who claims NN is obviously not confirmed town, but they're considerably more likely to be town. I have personally never seen a day-one miller claim (analogous to a NN, with different investigative rolls) end up being scum, and plenty end up being town. A miller/NN who is thus likely town and can thus play a strong, town-leading role is a HIGHER PRIORITY for scum to kill than a possible bluesnipe. Also, a day-one NN claim avoids two possibly disastrous situations later on: 1) An actual NN being seen visiting someone and being lynched for it. 2) Mafia fake-claiming NN after being seen visiting somebody. Auto-lynching any NN claim is bad for in the first case, treating NN as town is bad in the second case. A day one claim, before there's any desperate need for a scum to fake-claim it, fixes both of these. The gain in information which scum gets from a day-one NN claim IS NOT SIGNIFICANT. Even IF scum has a tracker, a NN claim reduces their pool of players to track by something like 10% (I haven't done the math but it's about that). And like I said, if the NN plays a good town game he becomes EVEN MORE IMPORTANT for scum to shoot. Scum knowing not to track the NN is less valuable than town knowing not to track him. I'm tired of trying to beat sense into y'all about this, and I'm tired of y'all calling me scum over a difference of opinion about game theory. Someone man up and vote me over this trash or start playing the game properly. The other guy's plan was bad for other reasons. In this case, however, I am right, the rest of you are wrong, and I am trying to persuade you of that. I'm starting to feel like this is a waste of time though. My case. On Chromatically. Opinions please. I'll drop the whole NN thing if people feel like we're getting off-track with it, but it seems like we're in a holding pattern while we wait for inactives to defend themselves. Regarding the NN Claim: This is a part of the game I clearly don't understand the far-reaching implications of. Addressing point #2, specifically: "Mafia fake-claiming NN after being seen visiting somebody. A day one claim, before there's any desperate need for a scum to fake-claim it, fixes (this)." Is the value of preventing a mafia NN claim later in the game more than the benefit of having a real NN around to counter-claim it in the moment, catching the scum in the act? (This assumes the remaining townies have pegged the real NN as more town than the first claimant). Do not get discouraged- I would like to hear your thoughts on this subject, and it's important to emphasize that people make up their own minds on this matter as there is likely at least 1 scum trying to steer public opinion in the 'wrong' direction on this issue. You seem to have already convinced FirmTofu, and this is the kind of matter we can get Town Consensus on now in the early game. | ||
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Additionally, I don't support the Alakaslam bandwagon because even though I think his random vote on Aqua is a mistake, he honestly just seems like an overwhelmed dude. Any alignment reads are sort of moot because his language and train of thought are too erratic for me to read. If I didn't have any scum reads and wasn't convinced by any of the outstanding cases, however, I could theoretically justify voting for Alakaslam because he seems resigned to being lynched Day 1, and a broken player at this juncture isn't as drastic a loss as someone who has been actively scumhunting and bringing coherent thoughts into the thread. Xzavier is really disappointing thus far this game. He was so passionate and eloquent in the last game, and now his syntax and content have plummeted. It's interesting to me that he promised to be more useful on Day 2, but his posting doesn't add up. I don't see the mafia trying to bandwagon him at this point, but I have a theory on Xzavier that I'd like to keep to myself barring a close vote involving him for now. I feel confident that given everyone's level of posting, my unease with StimAddict is fully justified. Regardless of how you feel about Meta Cases, I present The Case For Stim: - Stim was very active in the pre-game, posting 10 times on 4 different days - He posted 20 minutes before the game started (implying a certain level of enthusiasm for this game) - Stim was so eager to game that he brought in a friend who needed to make a brand new account on the site (user name: 'I am a pedophile') to get this game started, again implying a certain level of enthusiasm to start - Stim posted one of the inaugural useless opener posts ('so it begins...') just minutes after the initial Day One post went live I have thus demonstrated that Stim was excited, eager, available and willing to play this game. - Stim has not posted since these pre-game / introductory posts This sets off alarm bells for me. I'm not making a case to lynch a lurker because he's lurking. I'm making a case to lynch STIM SPECIFICALLY because he is lurking. The fact that he happens to be the only true lurker is coincidental for my case. This is a man who was extremely excited to play this game. I was also very excited, and wouldn't be able to contain my enthusiasm if I tried. Indeed, I couldn't help but post actively during the first 12 hours, getting the adrenaline out of my system. This makes me think that Stim is also being active. He is being active in the mafia mini-forum. Or he's being active by game-planning with his SK coach. Furthermore: - In his previous game, Stim came out first-post-firing with a gigantic case on someone he suspected to be scum. Stim was very convinced, going as far to demand that the Vigilante use his shot on his target when he failed to secure the lynch on Day 1. - After the subject of his case flipped town on Day 2, Stim fell into a pit of despair, and attempted to vote on himself for the Day 3 lynch despite being a townie (One could argue that this strategy would only be viable as a Hail Mary for a scum player. There's no real reason to do what he did as town) I get the feeling that as a player, Stim is in it to make 'Big Plays', and (unintentionally) does not have the best interest of the town at heart. I feel confident in this behavioral analysis because it is a trait that I also struggle with (See: my opening call for a plan of action. See: this post, trying to lead a lynch on someone that no one else has even remotely expressed serious interest in lynching) If Stim swoops in with another large case on someone before the deadline, I will rethink my vote. But for now, he's just floating by bringing zero content to the game and the town. Hell, I hate the spamming, but at least they're getting people to talk (even if it's just 'Stop Spamming, jerk'). I want the serious conversation to lynch Stim to start happening now so it has some time to gain momentum before he posts his inevitable 'Wow, work has been crazy, these time zones lol, english is my second language, so here's my random #vote on whoever my scumbuddies told me to okay bye' 10 minutes before the deadline. Reference materials: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=412757 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=412757&user=StiMaDDict&view=all ##vote StiMaDDict | ||
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On June 25 2013 23:56 Spicydinosaur wrote: Im not convinced on the aqua vote either and ill post my thoughts on that later, but for now i want to get this out. ##Vote:Hurricane Sponge The case: Hurricane starts off with a big wall of text that was written pregame that mostly didnt tell us anything. It gave a summary of the roles and a whole lot of fluff. Plus he wanted the NN to claim already which was a horrible idea. Some found this useful but it really didnt tell us anything new. Next he is prompted to makes a couple of cases against me and xzavier based off of only a few posts. I already disagreed with his reasons for me but he made a couple good points about xzavier. The problem is that this is his only scum hunting for the entire game. From this point forward all he talks about concerns the NN. He makes no new effort to ask questions about cases or constructs his own. It feels as though he made a quick early contribution with hunting and then hoped to sail the rest of D1 without truly contributing. His remaining posts are mostly just rehashing and talking about the NN issue. His last post (as of this posting) is reposted below. Here hurricane senses that he's dragging out the NN talk for too long but then double downs on it by encouraging others to continue the discussion. This feels like scum trying to get others to continue on the conversation without him having to post more. Furthemore in the above quote that hurricane quotes, aqua asks for thoughts on his chrom case, yet he passes over the opportunity to give his opinions out. I feel he is just waiting to see how wagons are rolling before he places his opinion down in the safest place possible. Hopefully my post addresses these issues. My post took about 35 minutes to craft, so I'm sorry for wasting your time. Do you have any further concerns about me that I can help clear up? | ||
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On June 26 2013 00:19 Chromatically wrote: I'll talk about Stim specifically in a moment, but I pretty much wholeheartedly agree with your first two paragraphs, Sponge. I think that Stim's "meta" helps him in this case. The only real point that it's possible to bring against him right now is that he's hardcore lurking (which is pretty bad). However, it really is the standard lurker lynch coinflip. Stim has already shown that he lurks as town. He's lurking harder this game, sure, but Stim isn't a contributor as town or scum. He'd make a great vigi shot, though. The thing is, Stim isn't even trying to act like he's contributing. He's doing nothing, but he's not posting fluff to make it seem like he's contributing. I guess I'm saying I like the coinflip odds right now, then. A lot of the other cases seem like town-on-town crime to me. I will re-read the cases, but unless Stim produces some seriously convincing content, my vote will stay where it is. (His meta validates him only if he contributes in a significant way. For now, he's using his meta as permission to lurk until the last possible second.) | ||
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On June 26 2013 00:30 Spicydinosaur wrote: @hurricane This doesn't change my analysis and actually furthers my argument. You picked the sole lurker as your vote which is a huge cop out giving everyone else's level of activity and looks extremely scummy. Alright. I understand your point of view, and it is not without merit. Unfortunately, I cannot disclose at this time why I was so interested in the NN issue. If you can convince the rest of the town that it is reason enough to lynch me, then you shall have my head. | ||
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On June 26 2013 00:30 Spicydinosaur wrote: @hurricane This doesn't change my analysis and actually furthers my argument. You picked the sole lurker as your vote which is a huge cop out giving everyone else's level of activity and looks extremely scummy. Wait, just one quick point. So if I had joined one of the other bandwagons, it looked scummy to you. But making a new case and bringing it forward also looks scummy? What were my options? | ||
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On June 26 2013 00:35 Chromatically wrote: Who are your other scumreads, Sponge? For me, Xzavier is definitely something big. Could be SK, could be scum, could be... big. He has veiled references that he will be useful Day 2. If his play doesn't shape up in Day 2, I'd be for a Xzavier lynch, but I'm willing to give him that chance. Spicy could be mad that I singled him out early. Or maybe my early shot in the dark linking him and Xzavier as scummy actually scared their team. He's awfully defensive, but he's claimed that is his playstyle. And his case on me isn't false. He's just missing a key bit of information. Not his fault. I'm inclined to believe he is town since he's done SO much to drive town discussion. I'd pencil in Spicy as town with a gun to my head, but obviously with the accusation, now he's going to be on my radar whether I want him to be or not (your brain tricks you into thinking that everyone who accuses you when you're town is scum). Stim feels like scum. I wrote my case. As a fellow excited newbie, that play does NOT add up. I don't have much else. I could make up some stuff to fill space, but that doesn't do anyone any good. | ||
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On June 26 2013 00:40 Spicydinosaur wrote: My whole issue with you is that you scum hunted a little in the beginning with extremely early posts, then just talked about NN for the remainder. You didnt question people about cases, you didnt make any of your own, and now you picked a lurker. If you jumped on a wagon now i would still be suspicious because it doesnt change the underlying reasons i think you are scum. I understand. Thank you for responding. Please let me know if you require any other information from me as the game goes on. I will try to be more useful in the future. | ||
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On June 26 2013 00:47 Chromatically wrote: But why aren't you on board for a Xzav lynch today if you think that he's scum or SK? It's very easy for scum to promise future contributions. Xzav has already did this once, but no one said anything when he didn't deliver. Delaying contribution until pressure has subsided is useful for scum. We are not supposed to speculate out loud about certain things. Therefore, meta dictates that I must withhold part of my answer to this question at this time. Suffice to say that while Xzavier could flip scum, if this particular player were mislynched, I believe it would be an abnormally disastrous one. However, be assured that if I am around Day 2 and Xzavier's posting does not improve, I will be pushing for his lynching. | ||
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On June 26 2013 00:56 Chromatically wrote: His play is clearly scummy. It has scum motivation. If you agree that he's scummy, there's no reason why you wouldn't want to lynch him. If it is so clearly scummy, then the town will unanimously vote for him. It is not that clear-cut for me. I feel like I have explained as much as I can on this matter. As things stand, I would much prefer Stim to be lynched today than Xzavier, because Xzavier has proven he has 'upside'. I do not see that in Stim. | ||
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On June 26 2013 01:10 LoneMeow wrote: Stim lynch with the info we have right now would be too much of a coin flip I think, however if he doesn't come back and elaborate as he promised I am ready to see him hang. And unless something truly game changing happens my vote will be on Xzavier or Stim - definitely not Aquanim. This has been bugging me a little bit. Given the odds, isn't a coin-flip fantastic odds for the town on a Day 1 lynch barring extremely strong scum reads? | ||
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On June 26 2013 01:26 LoneMeow wrote: Consider the case of lynching a coin flip that says nothing about those who voted for him against mislynching someone after considerable amount of discussion. I'd say the latter is better, if only for the fact that it helps figure out who are scum later on. Also note, it's not a true coin flip, since not half of the players are scum. If it was 50/50 odds I'd take it unless I had a very strong scum read on someone. Oh, my misunderstanding. Thought coin flip meant 50/50. | ||
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#1.) I've been vocally suspect of Xzavier all game. #2.) My primary target is on the bandwagon that is functioning as Xzavier's salvation (Stim cast his vote REALLY late. If I need to spell it out, the logic follows that if I think Stim is scum, and he's voting essentially in favor of Xzavier, the friend of my enemy is my enemy) Let's make the mafia do the Scum Shuffle and see what happens in the next 9 hours, shall we? ##unvote ##vote Xzavier | ||
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On June 26 2013 02:01 FirmTofu wrote: Even now, it is still possible that Xzavier lives because we only have 5 votes. We should try convincing hzflank or Alakaslam to switch their votes. As I suspect the Mafia team is as follows... Xzavier SpicyDinosaur Onegu They are trying not to make it obvious that they want to keep Xzavier alive. You can see how they are frantically looking for other scapegoats to shift attention off of Xzavier, but don't have much of a case. Furthermore, my preliminary assessment of Alakaslam speaks to an SK mindset. I will go into further detail when it becomes applicable on Day 2. I guess we're going to find out about Spicy. If he switches his vote to save Xzavier, it supports your theory. Onegu has a built-in 'Out' to switch his vote back to Aqua, as dumb as the original reasons for this wagon were for starting. Alakaslam just threw out his vote to potentially save himself. I think once he reads the thread, he'll come to his senses quickly. | ||
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On June 26 2013 02:24 FirmTofu wrote: Shhhhhhhhhhhhhh We are trying to convince him to vote Xzavier, not antagonize and interrogate him. Onegu's statement that he doesn't care whether Xzavier or Aqua get lynched is significant. If this is true, he will not be changing his vote to either bandwagon. If he is lying, he will switch his vote onto one of them at the last minute. We will learn a lot about him. | ||
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Not sure if anyone has pointed this out, but here's the reason for the Aqua bandwagon: On June 25 2013 12:49 Xzavier wrote: This post just moved Aqua to my number 1 scum list. ##VOTE Aquanim sry i wasnt able to go as in depth as i wanted to on alot of posts. I had like 6-7 quotes i wanted to talk about, but my brother just got home an hour earlier than i planned. T.T i WILL actually post more in the morning before i go to class. By the way i work tomorrow so i wont be around for the vote, so my vote will be cast like 8 hours prior to the deadline. :O If Xzavier is scum, the mafia are COMMITTED to whoever Xzavier votes for because that's who Xzavier left his vote on when he goes offline for the day. If the mafia want any sort of reactionary mobility, they're going to have to do it a man down. | ||
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We're about to see some interesting play, I think. | ||
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On June 26 2013 03:43 Xzavier wrote: IF i was scum. they would probably buss me. But since im not scum i hav no fucking clue whats aboht to happen. I work in 15 min. For 8 hours. so i get two breaks and a lunch. I promise much more activity day2. as i hav friday off. I also dont think i work tomorrow. @Xzavier You may not have a Day 2. If you have any scumreads (or town reads, even) you better post them now so your death will not be in vain should you flip town. | ||
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On June 26 2013 04:00 Xzavier wrote: Also im not posting town reads. I dont want to inject wifom. What? If you're town and likely to be lynched, your opinion on who else is town is valuable, not WIFOM. If you were mafia, I'd understand if you were scared to tell us your Town reads in the event you die today. | ||
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@Xzavier Read the previous two posts (one by myself one from Alakaslam) (Xzavier requested we tag him in any posts directed at him, I assume for ease of use while browsing / posting on his phone) | ||
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I just went through your filter. You're the only vote on Aqua that I can't explain. You mention yourself in the case you make on him that it's pretty weak, and you were more posting it for his benefit to refute it than as a serious post. To be clear: No one suspects you. Now, everyone is getting his bandwagon ready. I'm wondering if you are still experiencing the lack of conviction on your pick, or if having people jump on board has convinced you? What is your play here? | ||
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1. Xzavier is lynched and flips scum 2. Xzavier is lynched and flips town If he flips scum, the mafia team may have played a really primitive game and we can chase down their team fairly easily. I'd most likely continue to pursue StiM (especially if he remains inactive) and will end up most likely putting some pressure on Spicy for burning his vote on me and not really contributing to the Xzavier / Aqua bandwagon debate. If hzflank doesn't answer me during the night time, I'll make a case on him as well. (There's material there, and the silence is unnerving) If Xzavier flips town, I still probably won't be that convinced that Aqua is scum. These two events are independent of each other in my mind. It could be that both players are Town, and the mafia were simply supporting the bandwagon on the stronger pro-town player. Aqua hasn't posted in a while, but when he does, I like what I feel from him. Depending on Alakaslam's action, he may be a person of interest in questioning. | ||
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On June 26 2013 05:40 Chromatically wrote: Onegu's apathy about this lynch is very bothersome to me, as town your vote is your strongest weapon and Onegu is just wasting his. Not sure what it means until I see the flip, but not having an opinion on either of these candidates is weird. He has an opinion. He thinks both of the current lynch candidates are scum. It's weird, but I see where he's coming from. My guess is that he's trying to establish a voting track record on who he believes is the most scummy person out there. Which happens to be neither of the current candidates. Even though he does believe they're both scum. Huh, yeah... I guess that is weird. | ||
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[QUOTE]On June 26 2013 05:46 Hurricane Sponge wrote: [QUOTE]On June 26 2013 05:40 Chromatically wrote: Onegu's apathy about this lynch is very bothersome to me, as town your vote is your strongest weapon and Onegu is just wasting his. Not sure what it means until I see the flip, but not having an opinion on either of these candidates is weird.[/QUOTE] He has an opinion. He thinks both of the current lynch candidates are scum. It's weird, but I see where he's coming from. My guess is that he's trying to establish a voting track record on who he believes is the most scummy person out there. Which happens to be neither of the current candidates. Even though he does believe they're both scum. Huh, yeah... I guess that is weird.[/QUOTE] Apathy is a sign of defeatist scum trying to win back the town's favor. Initially, he was very pro-lynching Aqua, now he is apathetic with a fairly low amount of developments? [QUOTE] Scummy see, scummy do. Onegu might just be more scummy than Spicy at this point for me. That's quite a turnaround.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE][B]On June 26 2013 05:40 Chromatically wrote: Onegu's apathy about this lynch is very bothersome to me, as town your vote is your strongest weapon and Onegu is just wasting his. Not sure what it means until I see the flip, but not having an opinion on either of these candidates is weird.[/QUOTE] Right, but Spicy is burning his vote in much the same manner. If anything, Spicy's actions should be viewed as at least as scummy at this point in time. | ||
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TL:DR Spicy is wasting his vote just like Onegu is. Why would Onegu be MORE scummy at this point? | ||
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On June 26 2013 09:49 Spicydinosaur wrote: I dont like the vote for the lurker as it seemed an easy cop out. Then his switch to xzavier doesnt help as i think xzavier isnt scum. He has picked up commenting about cases a lot more, but that's to be expected when accused. There was a huge shift in his play style before and after my vote on him. Perhaps he became more active to push the mislynch? I honestly dont know but looking at his filter it just feels scummy. And your new case didnt really add anything new, just commented on xzaviers posts. At this point xzavier is going to be lynched barring some big last minute vote switches. For the record my 'huge shift in playstyle' had nothing to do with you. I was unable to post yesterday, and I am East Coast, so I posted my big case as soon as I woke up. It is unfortunate timing, but if you look at the time stamps, you'll see you had nothing to do with my posting. In addition, as I'm not going to be lynched today, barring a mafia NK on me, you'll see that I will maintain this level of activity for the rest of the game. Keep an open mind to new information, my friend. A tunnel is a terrible thing to waste. | ||
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@Spicy Do you feel like elaborating on your thoughts about Aqua now, or are they no longer relevant / valid? | ||
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On June 26 2013 12:15 Alakaslam wrote: O.O Can I do nothing right. Now I see how scummy ^^ looks (I mean my post.) Feh! What am I worried about. My Lynch would give town a lot of confusion though. Not good. I get a strong feeling Mafia are actually pretty active this game, kind of puppetmastering and doing a good job of it. They've got me so far XD No case for the above? Well, it's because of my general feeling based on the whole thread. A lot of people accusing with weak cases or, like me, just avoiding accusing because they're worried their case will be weak (which is in itself scummy in a way- that worry). You know? Really, I'm just very new and very wishy washy. Feel free to ask me stuff, I'll see it on my spare time and I'll try to answer. A lot of stuff I've done I have done to try to be a sideline resource to town. I haven't the best of skill at reading people anywhere, but one thing I can do is tell the truth and navigate TL. So ask me, try to entrap me and make me guilty worse than I am. I need some Town confirmation if I'm going to be useful, and that is the only way I can think of to confirm myself town. Otherwise, please just lynch me. + Show Spoiler + "After all, you just lynched two townies with me. I'm CONFIRMED red, aren't I? So I'd be one less KP when gone" Has anyone actually considered the motivation behind my filter? I know why I look scummy, heck you guys convinced me (lol). So, I ask you. How do I fix that? What is at my disposal to help town? I thought towniness was any effort to aid town, not YOU MUST SCUMREAD THAT IS ONLY AID TO TOWN AND NO SHEEPING BRO, IF YOU DON'T KNOW HOW TO USE YOUR VOTE AT ANY GIVEN TIME BECAUSE YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT + Show Spoiler + what I just did with most of us. mind you, because trying to read scum less carefully... + Show Spoiler + http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=301748 I haven't followed this because I got nutzy after people said I was lurking. Like on page 11. "You don’t have to be a super-active poster to prove your innocence or be useful to the town." WELL AREN'T I A CLASS-A EXAMPLE OF THAT TRUTH. Rather, I have been disobeying "Don’t babble. If you speak without having a clear goal in mind, you impede the town and decrease everyone else’s productivity. This paralyzes town analysis and decision-making and allows mafia to hide in the chaos." Not sure why you quoted me, but I just went through your whole filter. On a scale of Scum-to-Townie, I'd put you as a solid 'Potato'. I tried following your train of thought, and it damn near gave me a headache. If you can post thoughts in a much more concise manner from here on out, I'd consider it a personal favor. You seem to be asking for homework, so I will give you some: You associated yourself early with Onegu, even declaring that you would donate your vote to him to use as he pleased. What are your thoughts on him at this moment in light of his attitude toward how the the Day 1 lynch was shaping up late in the day? (Go read his filter. You do not have to respond in the next 10 seconds.) | ||
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On June 25 2013 01:09 Alakaslam wrote: Voting is requested! I will bandwagon out of bitterness until I see a really good defense. Not so much against the bbcode error (that would be hypocritical) but against... Baseless lurker accusations at the start of day 1! See how I roll? Am I going to make those accusations? Maybe (I'm kind of doing just that) but in this case, it's because he already has a vote, and I am thinking of helping a bandwagon. I WANT firm to show up as town, I am super nervous about mislynching! But I need to make a case it seems, and this is what I got because frankly I don't see any great cases yet. ##Vote: FirmTofu Out because work @Alakaslam I also need you to tell me what is wrong with this post. (Class, don't help him.) | ||
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On June 26 2013 12:29 Alakaslam wrote: Spicy, work with sponge please. This will lead to town victory. You two (and Onegu) are the most clearheaded in the thread so far, and you've both been right in the face of bandwagon. Learning, learning.... We don't know if I was right until StiM flips. And that's not likely at this point because he's doing exactly what he needed to do to get me to drop my case on him (assuming he follows his M.O. and posts a ton of Pro-Town Day 2 stuff like he did in XLII). | ||
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Does this exonerate Alakaslam in your mind? (Onegu seemed to have the idea of planting the seeds for a Day 2 Alakaslam lynch) | ||
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On June 26 2013 13:08 Alakaslam wrote: For starters direct disobedience to what I posted in the spoiler at the bottom of the post you quoted for my homework. Is also selfish, sarcastic, paranoid, a knee-jerk reaction, and contradictory to ideas I had raised earlier an have since. And I posted out of raw emotion. More coming on homework, going to avoid spamming! Btw. Yes, I know. You are a prophet sir.  If that's all you found wrong with that quote, we have a problem. I need you to read it extremely carefully. There is a very specific answer I'm looking for, and it will be very obvious when you find it. | ||
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On June 26 2013 13:21 Onegu wrote: [/red]My vote isnt a scum tell and neither is my apathy toward who get lynched, jeez think about it, me doing what I did is something only town would do, scum wouldnt do it because of all the backlash if scum really didnt care they would put thier vote on on of the two bandwagons and not say much as to why they voted. I gave you reasons for my vote and reasons why I was ok with both of them being lynched, none of that is a scumtell. The fact xzavier flipped town we should be looking at people who piled on to his bandwagon they would want to ensure the lynch of the person with the most votes so there isnt a last minute swich onto one of the scum. Can you make an updated case for either Aqua or Alakaslam, whoever is your primary target at this time? | ||
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On June 26 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote: I think that a hypothetical Vigilante should probably NOT shoot tonight for the following reasons: 1) Statistically speaking, the vigilante is unlikely to die between now and the next night phase. They could get shot by scum, but they're unlikely to be lynched (since they can claim Vigilante). I expect that by night 2 our reads will be a lot stronger and a vigilante will be able to shoot scum with much higher confidence. 2) If the vigilante does shoot tonight and shoots a townie, then (after a scum NK) there will be 8 players remaining in the game, and probably 3 of them will be anti-town. This will be a MYLO situation on day 2 - that is, if we mislynch again, we almost certainly lose right away (barring lucky night actions), and even if we lynch scum we're faced with the same situation again. While obviously the goal is to lynch scum every day, I'd prefer not to have to lynch 3 scum in a row or instantly lose... Don't get me wrong, if StiMaDDict were to go mysteriously missing in the night I wouldn't grieve much, he's been bloody useless so far. However, I think it's worth waiting the extra day to be sure that he (or whoever else is being considered for a Vig shot) is actually scum, since the consequences of shooting a townie are so dire. Spicy, on the other hand, would be a poor vigilante shot IMO - he's posted enough that we would get more out of discussing lynching him than simply shooting him. This post made me really sad. I have to completely disagree with you. There's been a lot of content, and every townie worth their salt has to have at least a couple names on their Scum List. The longer he waits to take the shot, the longer something can go wrong (NK, mislynch, etc.). I hate seeing you come out on the wrong end on two policy discussions, considering the first one got you nearly lynched and I was leaning toward believing you to be town. | ||
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On June 26 2013 13:32 Onegu wrote: [/red]Yes I will, I want to see what night actions are though. Aqua is my main focus now, like I said it would be day one if xzav flipped town I'd really love to hear them now, in case you get NK'd. | ||
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On June 25 2013 01:09 Alakaslam wrote: I WANT firm to show up as town, I am super nervous about mislynching! But I need to make a case it seems, and this is what I got because frankly I don't see any great cases yet. ##Vote: FirmTofu Hint time. Reading comprehension is a huge part of this game. We need to be very careful about correcting significant typos like this. | ||
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On June 26 2013 13:44 Aquanim wrote: Sure, I have a couple of names on my scumlist, but I'm not willing to bet the farm on any of them just yet. Like I said, a Vigilante is unlikely to be mislynched since he can claim, and the odds of him being shot are relatively low. A Vigilante is likely to be alive in the next night phase, and being able to take a shot when there is more information to decide a target is a good thing. Also, a successful Vigilante shot at this point does not increase the number of mislynches before scum win. An unsuccessful Vigilante shot DOES decrease the number of mislynches before scum win. The town has a lot to lose through an unsuccessful Vigilante shot, and not as much to gain as might otherwise be the case. Obviously shooting scum is good, but a missed shot would be catastrophic. Perhaps instead of thinking I'm scum because I have a different opinion on Mafia theory to you, you should seriously consider my arguments? Whoa there. I never said I thought you were scum. Look at my filter, I never went after you because of differences of opinion on policy. (That feels like a pretty scum move to me personally; blowing something small and ultimately constructive way out of proportion.) Hopefully you'll return the favor and not attack me for thinking you're wrong on this point. | ||
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Your math is sound, and if the vig is not confident, he should not shoot. But if you've got the read, climb the ladder, kid. Make yourself famous. | ||
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On June 26 2013 13:37 Aquanim wrote: Returning to our regularly scheduled broadcast of "anything other than blue roles": I played a large role in lynching a townie Day 1 and I acnowledge that some of you probably suspect me because of this. I believed he was the most likely player in the game to flip red, and I explained clearly why I believed that. If you suspect that I am scum, I suggest you read my filter and ask yourself two questions: 1) Does this person believe in the arguments they are presenting? 2) Is this person afraid of getting attention and being scrutinised? (These questions could profitably be applied to a read through the filter of any player in a game of Mafia, hence the third person. In fact, I would suggest that you do apply these questions to any of your reads.) If you have any questions I'm happy to answer them. I don't plan on posting anything huge until the night-action deadline (one hour before the daypost) since the next move is mostly scum's and I don't see anything to be gained by showing my reads before then. In general, I'd love to see less defense and more offense. (Easy for me to say when I'm obviously feeling much safer than you.) I'm going to be very excited to see your big pre-deadline post. Please don't waste it just defending yourself. | ||
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On June 26 2013 14:19 hzflank wrote: EBWOP: @Hurricane Correction to that question: If you had to Vig kill someone tonight, but all players looked equally scummy, who would you shoot? This is WIFOM hell. If I pick a target, say 'StiM' and that target is actually town, the mafia will let me shoot away and bury my team. If I pick a target, say 'hzflank' and that target is mafia, the mafia can roleblock me tonight and send a Goon to kill me. I refuse to answer this question on the grounds that you look SUPER DUPER like scum right now, unless you're actually the Vig. | ||
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I have a question for you, and I need you to answer in the simplest way possible. I promise I will explain later. Are you scum? | ||
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On June 26 2013 14:42 hzflank wrote: I don't even know if there is a Vig in the game. We have not seen a night play out so we have no idea what roles are present. If there is a Vig, then as Aqua said, they need to be damn sure that their target is scum if they are going to shoot before we get a successful lynch. My point was: Aqua is bulletproof tonight (from the scum NK). Even if they are both town and the scum want Onegu lynched day 2, they still will not NK Aqua tonight. Speculating on mafia night actions in a newbie game seems like an invitation for WIFOM Hell. It doesn't really get us any closer to finding scum, and it convolutes whatever Occam's Razor we might benefit from. I could post a list of people who I think are safe from mafia tonight (and that list would be exactly 8 people long; believe me, I made it and then deleted it), but what good does that do us? | ||
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On June 26 2013 14:46 Aquanim wrote: I'm curious to know why you think this is so. Please, dear god no. Before anyone starts down this line of thinking, indulge me: Tell me how this gets us closer to finding scum? | ||
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On June 26 2013 14:48 hzflank wrote: EBWOP To clarify: I am NOT saying that a Vig should shoot aqua. A mis-kill would be disastrous, and I am not claiming him to be scum. I was just thinking 'if this guy flipped now, what would it tell us'. And I realized that the town stands more to gain from an Aqua flip than anyone else. Aqua had the second wagon in day 1, and there is now a wagon forming on Onegu, who claims he will make his case on Aqua. I told myself I wouldn't swear in this thread. I was going to be civil. Please do not make me disappoint myself. Please. | ||
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I also can't wrap my head around how mathematically at least two Townies at one point put their vote on Aqua. The final ballot had: hzflank, Xzavier, Onegu, Alakaslam, and StiMaddict Of those, all could be town, or three could be town (assuming a 3-scum set-up). But two townies were either convinced by scum or got there on their own natural reads that Aqua was scum. Of those 5, two are confirmed to still suspect him: Onegu and Xzavier. Everyone knows my thoughts on StiM, and I'm sure there are as many opinions as there are people in regards to Alakaslam. hzflank, I'm going to go through your filter now. Please do not be offended. | ||
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On June 26 2013 14:57 Alakaslam wrote: You guys are all confusing me like flying pigs! What the hell is all this about? How on earth do we deduce this kind of thing from what has happened so far? Either STFU or be clear, this is one thing I have learned today. I thought you all had this down Already? ........wait. Hurricane, Would scum create WIFOM hell if they knew they could? Edit after read preview: this is in tandem with quoted, @nested quote. I will explain why I want people to cease talking out loud about these specific topics. We, as town, outnumber mafia. At this point, I am convinced that we are also the better players. Daytime is a great time to deduce why mafia did what they did, because we have the Power of Lynch as the next killing action. Night time is not because the mafia get to follow our chain of thought. As we say things like 'Oh Bob is safe, they can't kill him because then we'd know X', we've just betrayed that advantage. Now, they CAN kill Bob. Add this to the fact that when we treat mafia as an amorphous blob like this we get no closer to actually finding out who they are. But even saying something like, 'Well Bob is probably gonna die because I think Steve is scum and Steve hates Bob.' is detrimental to the town. What if Bob dies now? They just heard you say that you think it's Steve's fault. And what if Bob doesn't die? Is Steve now innocent? Mafia controls those action items. It's not so much we need to deny them information. It's more that we can better use this time interpreting the flip and going back over the filters to try to find relationships. Scumhunting is how you win. You don't get some magical prize if you can correctly vet out publicly the mafia's best shot for the night. Especially considered the vast unknowns with our own Power Roles. Policy aside, in this specific game, I call upon the town to have faith in the players that are manning our Power Roles. They're not dumb. If you've thought of it, odds are they probably thought of it when they got their Role PM. Go find a filter and let's do some dumpster diving. Talk is good. Gameplanning for the other team is not. | ||
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First action involving fyfy was a vote by Tofu: On June 24 2013 16:53 FirmTofu wrote: As I am about to go to bed, I would like to go ahead and ##Vote: fyfy because he is the only person who hasn't spoken yet. Keep your eye on Stim and Meow as well because they are lurking, especially Stim. Interestingly, Onegu (unprompted) came to his defense with a very logical argument: On June 24 2013 16:59 Onegu wrote: It is better to vote for lurkers who have posted one time and stopped then to vote for someone who hasnt posted anything because they will most likely get replaced or modkilled. Spicy then enters the conversation after a defense of Chromatically as town with a defense of fyfy and a counter-poke on Tofu that reads more like an attack on StiM: [QUOTE]On June 24 2013 21:49 Spicydinosaur wrote: @Aquanim I dont like your case against chrom. Our exchange in the beginning was just to get the ball rolling which worked and started generating some content. Its still early D1 but right now im feeling chrom as town. Looking at FirmTofu as possible scum target. His first post is pure spam that does nothing to generate discussion [QUOTE]On June 24 2013 11:15 FirmTofu wrote: Scum Hunt Day 1: [QUOTE]On June 24 2013 10:59 Chromatically wrote: hey guys[/QUOTE] Analysis: Trying to appear friendly with an innocuous greeting. Seems to project an air of insecurity. Preliminary Conclusion: Scum [QUOTE]On June 24 2013 11:01 StiMaDDict wrote: so it begins..[/QUOTE] Analysis: Neutral statement of fact. Preliminary Conclusion: Need more information. [QUOTE]On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote: Hey everyone[/QUOTE] Analysis: Exudes power with strong capitalization techniques along with a greeting. Preliminary Conclusion: A leader with a powerful role. [QUOTE]On June 24 2013 11:03 Xzavier wrote: Spicy <3 hello again. [/QUOTE] Analysis: Trying to establish a connection with a player that he has interacted with prior to this game. A metagaming, manipulative sort of move. Preliminary Conclusion: Scummy [QUOTE]On June 24 2013 11:04 Chromatically wrote: Why so scummy, Spicy?[/QUOTE] Analysis: First baseless accusation. As the old chinese proverb states, "He who smelt it, dealt it." Preliminary Conclusion: Scum Suggested Lynch: Chromatically[/QUOTE] I'm also not a huge fan of his stance on meta use. He claims that he doesn't want to use meta which would be fine on its own, but here he is using the argument to ignore evidence. [QUOTE]On June 24 2013 12:01 FirmTofu wrote: As an aside, I would prefer if the accusations remained within the confines of this game and this game only. That is to say, judging people on the differences between their past games and this one is a rather boring way to play the game.[/QUOTE] He claims I'm scummy because i am defensive when accused of being scum. [QUOTE]On June 24 2013 12:36 FirmTofu wrote: I actually do believe Spicydinosaur is scummy, but not for the reasons that Hurricane Sponge states. In all of his posts, he is extremely defensive. At the slightest mention of someone accusing him of anything, he flares up in his own defense. This could be due to his personality or it could be that he is extremely afraid of getting lynched. If it is indeed the latter, he is likely to be a powerful role, town or mafia. This is my preliminary assessment. (It's funny that this real analysis is in agreement with my fluff analysis at the beginning of the game) [/QUOTE] He acknowledges that it could just be my personality, yet when I link past games to show exactly that, he ignores it. At this point he just backs off his scum claim. [QUOTE]On June 24 2013 12:44 FirmTofu wrote: [QUOTE]On June 24 2013 12:39 Spicydinosaur wrote: [QUOTE]On June 24 2013 12:36 FirmTofu wrote: I actually do believe Spicydinosaur is scummy, but not for the reasons that Hurricane Sponge states. In all of his posts, he is extremely defensive. At the slightest mention of someone accusing him of anything, he flares up in his own defense. This could be due to his personality or it could be that he is extremely afraid of getting lynched. If it is indeed the latter, he is likely to be a powerful role, town or mafia. This is my preliminary assessment. (It's funny that this real analysis is in agreement with my fluff analysis at the beginning of the game) [/QUOTE] I do this in all my games, check out [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=410972] Les Mafia[/url]for a good example. Though i don't see how that is alignment indicative as no one wants to get lynched. [/QUOTE] I won't bother looking at your past games, because I believe you should only be judged on your actions in this game. As I mentioned before, you could very well have a defensive personality, so I am not saying you are definitely scum or anything like that.[/QUOTE] Next up is the lurker list post which doesnt tell us anything new and just clutters up the thread. We all know who has/hasnt been posting as the filter button is a click away. [QUOTE]On June 24 2013 13:27 FirmTofu wrote: [QUOTE]On June 24 2013 12:30 FirmTofu wrote: Quoted Player List for reference: [QUOTE]On June 18 2013 14:22 geript wrote: The Players
[/QUOTE] Lurkers: fyfy, Aquanium, LoneMeow, StiMaDDict, Alakaslam (Sorry, I know you said you were eating, but for all intents and purposes, you haven't posted at all.) Let's keep a close watch on these guys before we start voting.[/QUOTE] Lastly his vote on fyfy has been bugging me. It is clearly a pressure vote to get him active but why target fyfy over stim? Stim actually posted at the beginning of the day right after the day post, then dissipated. He was there reading the thread but not actively posting. This seems scummier than fyfy at the moment. [/QUOTE] After a while, Tofu drops his poke vote on fyfy: [QUOTE]On June 25 2013 02:38 FirmTofu wrote: Wrong format sorry. ##unvote: fyfy[/QUOTE] After a brief defense by Tofu from Spicy on the matter, fyfy chimes in: [QUOTE]On June 25 2013 04:10 fyfy wrote: Hi guys, for what it's worth I believe FirmTofu to either be an overzealous townie or scum. By checking through some of his posts in his previous games it appears that he is indeed kinda overzealous about things as town, not too sure about scum though. Apparently in one of his games he shot another town he believed to be mafia so I'm not too sure where this places him. For now, I'd rather we lynch someone scummier.[/QUOTE] Tofu then links Spicy and fyfy: [QUOTE]On June 25 2013 05:56 FirmTofu wrote: Another issue that may be useful later is his subtle defense of fyfy that worked wonders to nail me as an idiot for having voted him. Everyone fell for it, but for the time being, I have linked Spicy and fyfy as possible teammates. Whether it be arrogance or a scum-tell, Spicy is definitely a suspicious individual that needs to be looked into. ##Vote: SpicyDinosaur[/QUOTE] Spicy and Tofu then get in some crazy off-the-rails argument where they refute each other point by point without actually going anywhere. (Spicy has to actually bring up Hitler to finally kill the argument) There's a bit of time that passes where fyfy is solicited for a vote, so he offers: [QUOTE]On June 25 2013 15:48 fyfy wrote: I'm getting the read now that Aquanim is more scum than Xzavier as Aqua seems to be extremely defensive and I maintain my belief that Xzavier just types like a scum. Reading through the discussion, I am under the belief that Aquanim is scum. ##Vote: Aquanim[/QUOTE] Aquanim then damns us with faint praise: [QUOTE]On June 25 2013 15:49 Aquanim wrote: [QUOTE]On June 25 2013 15:37 Xzavier wrote: But i really dont need to right now lol. I was in the middle of making a case against you when i had to get off the pc. so i posted the little i had. you cant make a case on a phone. sorrym and im not the only one guilty of not pressuring people. hellvim one of the seven who has casted a vote and given a reason why. So why arnt you going after the lurkers who havnt even voted yet by this logic?[/QUOTE] - LoneMeow's two posts feel more constructive than the entirety of your filter - StiMaDDict is a coinflip - I feel like fyfy, Hurricane Sponge and Alakaslam are at least trying, even if they are not being very effective so far. There could well be scum in this group but I'm not nearly as confident about any one of them as I am about you and Onegu. Voting in as of itself is not scumhunting. You aren't trying to gain information by voting me and your case is pretty bad, which doesn't really leave any possible towny motivation for your vote.[/QUOTE] fyfy gives his reasoning (a gut feel, apparently): [QUOTE]On June 25 2013 15:58 fyfy wrote: [QUOTE]On June 25 2013 14:44 Aquanim wrote: [QUOTE]On June 25 2013 14:32 Onegu wrote: [QUOTE]On June 25 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote: [QUOTE] Him saying the bolded part really bothers me, it is a failsafe for him to later say his gut lead him to make votes without having to make cases behind it [/quote] [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=381931¤tpage=18#344]http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=381931¤tpage=18#344[/url] [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=386911¤tpage=53#1045]http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=386911¤tpage=53#1045[/url] Mate, are you in any way familiar with my meta? If I lead a wagon with serious intent to lynch somebody there WILL be a case. [quote] The other big thing about him is he kept the NN thing going way to long almost half his posts deal with the NN, when it is a bad idea, what if the NN claims day one but scum counterclaims day 4 we still dont know who is who it only give scum an advantage and for him to harp on it over and over is scummy to me. [/QUOTE] STILL this? 1) A difference of opinions on policy is not scum-indicative 2) If I knew that the NN claiming was obviously scum-favoured and that I had no chance to make it happen, why would I suggest it as town or scum? It would make me look bad either way. Your reasons for voting me are all 12 hours old. It seems a very convenient time for you to bring those up now that there are a couple of other votes on me. [QUOTE]On June 25 2013 13:13 Xzavier wrote: OMGUS more[/QUOTE] Still pathetic. Make a real case or eat rope.[/QUOTE] If there will be a case then why post this about your gut? [/quote] Because it's true. If I have a gut read, I do seek to substantiate it with a case to convince other people though. I don't expect anyone else to be convinced by my gut. What about this statement makes you think I couldn't say it as town? (NB. You should be thinking this about any scum read.) [quote] Sure a differance on opinion isnt scum indicative, but you postion on something pro scum and makeing multiple posts on it is. And if you make a case on it and people agree with you because they dont see the reasons could let it happen. You weren't the first person to ask for the reveal so it did have a chance to convince the NN to come forward.[/QUOTE] This is ridiculous. You just keep repeating the same thing over and over again. Even if it was a pro-scum position, plenty of people had already said they thought it was a bad idea. I knew when I made that argument that I was arguing against thread sentiment and did it anyway, because I thought (and still think) that that claim would lead to town advantage. You can't say that someone is scum just because they did some stuff which they MIGHT do as scum. You have to find something which they WOULDN'T do as town. [/QUOTE] Something about the way you type is off, I can't really put my finger on to it. I can't really decide whether you're really town or actually scum doing a good job pretending to be town. If anyone could help me clarify how many mafs/SKs are usually in a 12p game I think I would be able to make better decisions.[/QUOTE] ... and then immediately backs off when confronted: [QUOTE]On June 25 2013 16:13 fyfy wrote: So basically we're looking at 3 scums here, and its possible for 1 of them to not have a partner (the SK). So what we should be looking for people who are defending a lot of other people as these people will be the ones who likely will use that as an excuse for defending their mafia partner later on in the game ("Oh I defend everyone!"). As for now, I should not have voted so quickly, I apologise. ##Unvote: Aquanim[/QUOTE] And that's where the trail goes cold. Now, I know this may be a bit embarrassing for Tofu, but that's not my point here. I'm more interested that Onegu and Spicy both defended fyfy with little prompting. I do not view this as early-game scum behavior. Interesting that they both cite StiM as a better target, leading me to personally re-evaluate my thoughts on him. Thread: If you are convinced that either Onegu or Spicy are scum, please put these actions in context and give me your thoughts on StiMaddict. | ||
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The juice of my abortion of a post is that Onegu and Spicy defended fyfy almost immediately. And this is not scum-play to me. | ||
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Either Spicy OR Onegu are town and thought StiM's lurking deserved more pressure than fyfy (<----- MOST LIKELY SCENARIO) OR Spicy OR Onegu are scum, defended an early Town poke, AND StiM is not Mafia (<----- That's a lot of leaps) | ||
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On June 26 2013 15:58 Alakaslam wrote: Dude I am in stitches hurricane's post is so awesome and clean and typical of his helpfulness and then... IT COMES Dude my laughing is going to wake up my family I need to put down the phone, see you all in about 16 hours XD I'm so sorry hurricane it's just like when you've tipped a canoe and everyone laughed and then you see it happen to someone else and you get it and its so much funnier, that empathy funny stuff rofl If we lose, I'm blaming that damnable missing [/QUOTE]. | ||
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On June 26 2013 11:02 Chromatically wrote: I am very surprised that both of them flipped as town. I have a lot of strong town reads, but I clearly need to rethink some of them as a) there was probably scum on the Xzav lynch and b) there's not enough people left that are in my null-scum area. hz looks pretty town despite his wierd logic because there's really no reason for scum to draw suspicion to themselves by switching that late as the lynch was already secure. Same thing for Alaka, less confident on that. I don't follow. hz looks town because he did something suspicious? We can save this discussion for Day 2 if you think the information is sensitive, but don't let me forget this point, Chromatically. | ||
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I have yet to go over Onegu's filter, but his upcoming morning mega-post will go a long way in helping me decide his alignment. I'm not ready to crucify him JUST for saying he thinks Alakaslam is the scummiest player on the board while Xzavier and Aqua were also Top 3 (which is what his apathy regarding the Day One vote boiled down to). His reads will help me decide. | ||
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@Onegu Please address the bottom part of this post. A clear, honest answer would really help your case right now. | ||
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On June 27 2013 02:36 Spicydinosaur wrote: So you admit you are a liar. Scummy as hell. This can be explained as a difference of playstyle. You have been recently accused of not doing everything in your power to save Xzavier from lynch when you thought he was town. Tofu is demonstrating what he's willing to do to save someone he thinks is Town from a lynch. | ||
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On June 27 2013 02:59 Onegu wrote: I had no qualms about voteing aqua and was planning on voteing him today until the firmtofu case came up. As I said it didnt matter to me who was killed because I had a scum read on Aqua and a null read on xzavier but depending on how he fliped would focus my day 2 targets, I have said all along I want to lynch Aqua and still do. I cannot make a good case on him but I am trying and keep looking things over. But saying I didnt vote him because I am scum buddies is dumb, If not tofu today and it is between anyone and aqua my vote will go on aqua. But at this point firmtofu I can make a much stronger case on him. I don't think you're scumbuddies. I think Aqua is town. I'm confused by your actions. If I saw two wagons forming, one on a Townie and one on someone I thought was Scum, I'd get on that Scum bandwagon no matter what it looked like to make sure the right man dies. I can say this with confidence because it's exactly what I did. If you were town, that's the behavior I'd expect. I could see how maybe if you thought both xzavier and aqua were town or both were scum you could justify your apathy. But having different reads on the two main wagons, and just letting them roll by you baffles me. In a bad way. | ||
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On June 27 2013 03:03 hzflank wrote: Tofu was one of the people on the wagon. Go back and read how the votes went down. Look at exactly who voted when and the reasons given. If Tofu is town then at least one other person on that wagon is scum. Why is Tofu wasting so much time on people who were not on the wagon? Speak plain. Do you have a point? | ||
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On June 27 2013 03:10 FirmTofu wrote: He meant to say Aqua, not Xzavier. I already explained why I'm "wasting" time with people that weren't on the wagon. People on the wagon are more likely to be town than people not on the wagon. Remember that scum KNEW that Xzavier would not flip mafia. Why in the world would they get on a wagon that they knew would not flip mafia? Logic dictates that their best course of action would be to say they think Xzavier is town, but NOT ACTUALLY TRY TO PREVENT THE LYNCH. Who are the people who did that? Onegu SpicyDinosaur Alakaslam You This is why this group of people is high on my scum list. No, I meant what I said. I was addressing Spicy. Spicy is under suspicion because apparently he didn't defend Xzavier hard enough when he was a town read and one of the leading wagons: From Chromatically: "What I don't like (and this is a general statement about Spicy, Stim, and Onegu) is that when your vote is not on a leading wagon, you should be doing your ABSOLUTE BEST to push your read. This is especially true if you have a town read on the leader. A townie would do everything that they can to prevent a mislynch. Spicy defends Xzav a little, but then drops it" Tofu defended Aqua using every weapon available because he thought Aqua was town. | ||
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If he thinks this constitutes a real lynch defense of a wagon subject, he's dreaming: On June 27 2013 03:15 hzflank wrote: If you think I was not trying to prevent the lynch then you have not read the thread. I tried, and you stopped me. | ||
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On June 27 2013 03:24 FirmTofu wrote: hzflank, you keep repeating that someone on the wagon must be scum. Why do you believe that is the case? Does it necessarily have to be true, or do you think you are assuming it should be true because Xzavier flipped town? Because if everyone on the Xzavier wagon was town, then the mafia team is Onegu, Spicy and Stim. | ||
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On June 27 2013 03:27 FirmTofu wrote: Well, I don't think he was referring to the last few tag along votes. I think he means one of the first few votes must be scum. First few? Let's try to be as specific as possible. I hate treating individuals under suspicion as a collective. Hz suspects one or more of the following people is Scum: LoneMeow, Chromatically, Aquanim, FirmTofu, Hurricane Sponge. (After my vote, and Onegu's declaration that he will not be moving his off Alakaslam, the wagon reached maximum velocity) | ||
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On June 27 2013 03:53 hzflank wrote: I wanted to give you a chance to look into it yourselves to earn some town cred, but everyone went straight for Onegu, then when that did not get enough support some of you also poked at Spicy. I don't want to make any sort of case yet, because I want to be sure who the case will be against, if and when I make it. So i dont want to walk you through it. I wont be on until the end of the night now. You're using a lot of generalizations. Your arguments become much stronger when you stop using words like 'everyone' to describe individual actions. If you can find instances of each person's attack on Onegu and pokes on Spicy, they will be forced to respond. This post in its current state is very ignore-able (not because it lacks merit, but because there's little pressure being exerted due to the wording). | ||
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You can see this fits FirmTofu's aggressive playstyle later when he bullies Alakaslam into committing to the Onegu bandwagon. Is it dirty play? Yes. Would I have done it? No. Did it cross my mind? Yes. But I can TOTALLY see it as legitimate town play. If you are confident in your reads, you make these plays. This should not read as a defense of FirmTofu as town. I equate this playstyle issue to people getting on Aqua for revealing his opinions on the NN reveal. It's a difference of opinion, but has no bearing on alignment. These issues are both null to me. I'll seriously consider cases against FirmTofu that don't center on 'well he lied and manipulated two floaters into voting for his wagon'. | ||
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On June 27 2013 04:03 FirmTofu wrote: StiM and LoneMeow are going to decide which way the lynch goes because I believe that: Spicy, Onegu, Alakaslam, and hzflank will vote together no matter what AND Chromatically, Hurricane, Aqua, and I will vote together no matter what. We should work on convincing the two deciding votes at this point. I'm going back to making my defense against Onegu's accusations. This is an extremely stupid thing to say before the NK. | ||
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On June 27 2013 04:03 FirmTofu wrote: StiM and LoneMeow are going to decide which way the lynch goes because I believe that: Spicy, Onegu, Alakaslam, and hzflank will vote together no matter what AND Chromatically, Hurricane, Aqua, and I will vote together no matter what. We should work on convincing the two deciding votes at this point. I'm going back to making my defense against Onegu's accusations. Fortunately, it is also incredibly inaccurate. | ||
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On June 27 2013 04:07 Onegu wrote: Ok well I am going to sleep. Also when you lie once what is to stop you from doing it again it does hurt town and lieing to get your way is scummy. When you say I want this person lynched instead of this person and I will say or do anything for that to happen, that is very scummy. At the end of the day, everyone's vote is their own responsibility. If Tofu manages to convince people to vote for his target, that is not to be held against him. If anything, you should be mad at me and alakaslam for allowing ourselves to be manipulated by him. | ||
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On June 27 2013 04:26 Chromatically wrote: I have some thoughts on lying that I'd like to wait until the resolution period to post, but I'm going to assume that Tofu won't be lying again. There's no way for town to tell if you're a lying townie or scum who's trying to cover up a mistake. I will be sorely, sorely tempted to policy lynch you if you lie again. I didn't think of this. I will be re-evaluating my thoughts on this matter in light of new information. | ||
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Based on Xzavier's history (Yes, I'm using meta. Yes, it's based off one game. If this sort of thing doesn't interest you, move along.) he was also a Vanilla Townie in last week's TL Newbie Mafia game. His scumhunting skills are horrible. Day One he led a bandwagon on a townie against a Scum wagon. Day Two, he voted for a vanilla townie. Day Three he voted for a townie after unvoting two votes, one for a townie and one for a scum. Point: Xzavier's opinions on who is Scum in this game are probably not too useful. For posterity: Xzavier's scum reads in his own words (after I pressured him to get his reads out before he was lynched): On June 26 2013 03:50 Xzavier wrote: I dont get why aqua and chrome are voting somebody they know can be a good town. I havnt made huge cases yet, i havnt had time to. ill be active during night one if im still aliv. I would prefer to delay my lynch until day2. today id like a lynch on alakazam or aqua. idc which. ill probably choose between the two on my break fepending on the situation. IF I DO GET LYNCHED: everybody take a long hard look at aqua and chrom. and look at alakazam now he lurks and one of his few posts was saying im sheeping and doing no scumhunting this game until the guy im sheeping looks scummy. the godfather last game i was in said something almost identical to that. its a pretty big noob scum tell imo. alone it judt warrents serious investifagation. He goes on to basically admit that his suspicion of Aqua and Chrom are OMGUS: On June 25 2013 15:29 Xzavier wrote: Honestly not today. he did a really good jpb as town last game and gave some good insights. After going threw his filter it seems like he was forced into a defensive posting pattern due to pressure. he hasnt said much recently. Honestly i wouldnt mind lynching alakazam day 1. But ill giv him a chance to respond. Im really not liking chrom or auqa for their tunnelling me while ignoring logic and basing everything off of the fact that i havnt caught scum yet or made a case. However, after reading the Newbie Mafia XLII thread, his vocal town reads were actually pretty solid. Sure, he thought some townies were scum, but the people who he was confident enough to say out loud were town were all correct. I can't find an instance of him thinking a scum was Town (I comed his filter HARD). Point: Xzavier has a good track record when deciding someone is Town. For posterity: Xzavier's town read(s) this game (with some bonus OMGUS at the end for flavor): On June 26 2013 09:07 Xzavier wrote: Unfortunately. im going to dissapoint you by flipping green. I will say this: i firmly believe firmtofu is town. :D no really iv gotten that vibe. not all that strong. HZ flank also stfikes me as town. or hes playing the riskiest scum gambet. but all he would be gaining is a little towncred. so in pretty confident hes town. Heres list of people to look ibto: lonemeow. aqua. alakazam. Chromatically. Because they hav tunneled me and ignored logic and focused on tgeir silly probably purposely bad logic. Like it or not, Xzavier is still a townie. Keep his voice in mind if you're on the fence about someone or need extra input. Remember that HE IS STILL TOWN and can still win this game. I didn't see anyone going over Xzavier's filter (or fyfy's filter) so this analysis needed to be posted and deserves your consideration. | ||
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On June 27 2013 04:48 FirmTofu wrote: I think the distinguishing factor is intent. What intention would a scum Tofu have to save Aquanim? The only possible scenario I see is if Aqua and I are both scum and I was desperately trying to get the vote off him by lying. If you adhere to that belief, you have a case against me. But otherwise, I don't think you can hold it against me. In the context of my lie, aqua and I being different alignments is incompatible. Relax. No more defense. It's night time, let's see some offense. Make a list of your scum reads (privately) and start chasing down your second and third options. Really vet them. And start making gameplans (again, privately) and courses of action you'd like to pursue for different NK scenarios. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + As we all now know, fyfy flipped Town. Keep in mind the context that scum would know who was town at this juncture. I'm going to build a profile on fyfy for everyone: First action involving fyfy was a vote by Tofu: On June 24 2013 16:53 FirmTofu wrote: As I am about to go to bed, I would like to go ahead and ##Vote: fyfy because he is the only person who hasn't spoken yet. Keep your eye on Stim and Meow as well because they are lurking, especially Stim. Interestingly, Onegu (unprompted) came to his defense with a very logical argument: On June 24 2013 16:59 Onegu wrote: It is better to vote for lurkers who have posted one time and stopped then to vote for someone who hasnt posted anything because they will most likely get replaced or modkilled. Spicy then enters the conversation after a defense of Chromatically as town with a defense of fyfy and a counter-poke on Tofu that reads more like an attack on StiM: On June 24 2013 21:49 Spicydinosaur wrote: Lastly his vote on fyfy has been bugging me. It is clearly a pressure vote to get him active but why target fyfy over stim? Stim actually posted at the beginning of the day right after the day post, then dissipated. He was there reading the thread but not actively posting. This seems scummier than fyfy at the moment. After a while, Tofu drops his poke vote on fyfy: On June 25 2013 02:38 FirmTofu wrote: Wrong format sorry. ##unvote: fyfy After a brief defense by Tofu from Spicy on the matter, fyfy chimes in: On June 25 2013 04:10 fyfy wrote: Hi guys, for what it's worth I believe FirmTofu to either be an overzealous townie or scum. By checking through some of his posts in his previous games it appears that he is indeed kinda overzealous about things as town, not too sure about scum though. Apparently in one of his games he shot another town he believed to be mafia so I'm not too sure where this places him. For now, I'd rather we lynch someone scummier. Tofu then links Spicy and fyfy: On June 25 2013 05:56 FirmTofu wrote: Another issue that may be useful later is his subtle defense of fyfy that worked wonders to nail me as an idiot for having voted him. Everyone fell for it, but for the time being, I have linked Spicy and fyfy as possible teammates. Whether it be arrogance or a scum-tell, Spicy is definitely a suspicious individual that needs to be looked into. ##Vote: SpicyDinosaur Spicy and Tofu then get in some crazy off-the-rails argument where they refute each other point by point without actually going anywhere. (Spicy has to actually bring up Hitler to finally kill the argument) There's a bit of time that passes where fyfy is solicited for a vote, so he offers: On June 25 2013 15:48 fyfy wrote: I'm getting the read now that Aquanim is more scum than Xzavier as Aqua seems to be extremely defensive and I maintain my belief that Xzavier just types like a scum. Reading through the discussion, I am under the belief that Aquanim is scum. ##Vote: Aquanim Aquanim then damns us with faint praise: On June 25 2013 15:49 Aquanim wrote: - LoneMeow's two posts feel more constructive than the entirety of your filter - StiMaDDict is a coinflip - I feel like fyfy, Hurricane Sponge and Alakaslam are at least trying, even if they are not being very effective so far. There could well be scum in this group but I'm not nearly as confident about any one of them as I am about you and Onegu. Voting in as of itself is not scumhunting. You aren't trying to gain information by voting me and your case is pretty bad, which doesn't really leave any possible towny motivation for your vote. fyfy gives his reasoning (a gut feel, apparently): On June 25 2013 15:58 fyfy wrote: Something about the way you type is off, I can't really put my finger on to it. I can't really decide whether you're really town or actually scum doing a good job pretending to be town. If anyone could help me clarify how many mafs/SKs are usually in a 12p game I think I would be able to make better decisions. ... and then immediately backs off when confronted: On June 25 2013 16:13 fyfy wrote: So basically we're looking at 3 scums here, and its possible for 1 of them to not have a partner (the SK). So what we should be looking for people who are defending a lot of other people as these people will be the ones who likely will use that as an excuse for defending their mafia partner later on in the game ("Oh I defend everyone!"). As for now, I should not have voted so quickly, I apologise. ##Unvote: Aquanim And that's where the trail goes cold. Now, I know this may be a bit embarrassing for Tofu, but that's not my point here. I'm more interested that Onegu and Spicy both defended fyfy with little prompting. I do not view this as early-game scum behavior. Interesting that they both cite StiM as a better target, leading me to personally re-evaluate my thoughts on him. Thread: If you are convinced that either Onegu or Spicy are scum, please put these actions in context and give me your thoughts on StiMaddict. Post-mortem: Aqua and Tofu have both stated that they do not support my view and think that defending fyfy and pointing at StiM would have been an easy way to generate town cred early. On June 26 2013 16:23 FirmTofu wrote: I beg to differ. Spicy was defending against my accusation that fyfy and Spicy were both mafia. Thus, "defending" fyfy was just an issue of self-preservation. If people think fyfy is town, people think he is town, therefore his obvious self-preservationist instinct would lead him to defend fyfy. This is neither a scum-tell nor a town-tell. On June 26 2013 16:25 Aquanim wrote: Could you explain to me how defending a townie is a "supertown" move? I see it as a pretty good way for a scum to be seen sincerely arguing something (because they know they're right about a townread), while not actually contributing to finding scum. A quick glance over Spicy's posts indicates to me that all he's saying is "fyfy isn't the scummiest person in the thread" which is a long way from a committment to fyfy being town (which could be inconvenient for scum later). Townies can defend other townies, but scum can do it too IMO. Spicy simply reiterates that he believed StiM was the better target (which I think most agreed with at the time.) On June 26 2013 22:09 Spicydinosaur wrote: Just caught up on the thread from the start of the night post. @hurricane: i was planning on posting my thoughts on why the aqua vote was bad but i got caught up with my defense of xzavier and then real world work. A quick summary for why i thought it was bad was because xzavier's "case" was weak as already noted, onegu didnt really add much with his vote other than he doesnt like aqua's gut feeling. Nothing felt convincing really. I haven't filter dove aqua yet so ill probably do that day 2. Your play has stepped up a TON since the time i put my case on you and it has frankly been a lot more townie than i expected. As for the whole fyfy/stim thing. I've said all along that i thought at the time that stim was a better target as the lurkers werent equal with stim actually posting during the game. Tofu saw them as equal lurkers so thats why we went back and forth on that point. As for night actions, in past games when i tried directing blues, they didnt listen to me and ended up doing something better so im not going to do it this game. | ||
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On June 27 2013 06:50 FirmTofu wrote: Another point I'd like to make: Scum can change their actions even if they have already submitted them, BUT if either Onegu or hzflank are scum, they will be unable to change whatever actions they have set out for the night(because they have already gone to sleep). I say we capitalize on this opportunity and throw out a bunch of scum reads so that, no matter who dies tonight, we will have a plethora of information at our disposal to work with on Day 2. Don't believe everything you read, kid. | ||
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@Spicy what's your secondary read? There are still 3 mafia out there, you can't possibly think Tofu is the only one. If you got Tofu lynched and he flipped town, what would your next move be? If you got Tofu lynched and he flipped scum, what would your next move be? | ||
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On June 27 2013 07:47 Spicydinosaur wrote: I've been tunnelling tofu, perhaps too much right now, so i really havn't look at anyone else recently. I do want to look at everyone who voted xzavier because im pretty darn sure at least one scum was on him. I dont want to speculate too much on a tofu flip, all i know is that if he flips town im dead next as we were at each other the most. Beyond that i really dont know right now. I'd forgive you some inactivity if you wanted a couple hours to go through the filters and try to find some scum. I'm surprised that you don't have more scum reads at this point. I'd like your (NON-TOFU RELATED) insight on the state of the game before the NK (in case you die) so we can operate in Day 2 with more complete information. The general vibe of the town seems to be that you're volatile but slightly Town. This means your voice means something. Right now, if you died, all we'd know was 'Well, that guy really hated Tofu.' But by now, everyone has formed their opinion on Tofu. There's no point in pursuing him further until we're ready to make serious cases (Daytime). | ||
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To organize my thoughts, I will be using the format: "If I die tonight, town should increase their scum-read on "X" and "Y" because of "Reasons"." "In case I die tonight, for the record, I believe "Z" and "B" to be very town." Even this can be useful, in case there is an SK or Vig shot: "If I do not die tonight, "X" becomes more town to me because of "Other Reasons"." Statements made before the NK have a special brand of honesty to them. You may surprise yourself by what you write. | ||
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If I get shot by mafia tonight, I want the town to push hard for either a Spicy or StiM lynch. Conversely, if I am not the target of a mafia hit tonight, I will view Spicy as town. StiM, probably not so much. My reasoning on this is that Spicy went at me solo and hard early, and was the last to warm up to me. When everyone had a clear early town read on me, he saw a minor point he could blow out of proportion in my posts, and decided to pounce. Once he realized he couldn't get the town on board for a mis-lynch, he started going after Tofu (another massive Town read). His filter could be explained as an overly defensive, tunnel-y town play, but his recent attitude change could also easily be explained as a scum player who knows I'm going to be shot tonight. Spicy strikes me as the best scum player in their threesome right now, so the other two would likely defer to him to call the shot. I don't think I've been the best townie in the game so far... but I'm up there. Scum Spicy should see me as a threat for my last 48 hours of posting. Again, if I am not the target of the shot tonight, I will have a Strong Town read on Spicy. All of the material in his filter can be explained in a Town setting (though how he has played so far is definitely not how I play town). If I am not the target of the mafia kill tonight, I do not think Spicy is scum. In regards to StiM, I believe I've been the only one to push seriously for his lynching. If StiM is mafia, they may view me as the lone annoying threat to one of their members. If they can slay me now, the driving force pushing for a StiM lynch is also dead. He is a person worth considering. And keep in mind, for people citing the 'he always does this' meta: StiM was much more active by this point in the game last game. He is intentionally lurking now. And he's getting away with it. Alakaslam is not scum. At least he's not mafia. His posting is incredibly chaotic, but there's an authenticity there. I trust him, and think he will be a valuable pro-town vote, even if scum-hunting isn't his strong suit. Be nice to him. I view LoneMeow how (I suspect) most everyone else views StiM. I have a town read on Aqua, but that doesn't matter. Everyone in this thread has already made up their mind on Aqua, and me posting about him in my final hour won't change that. hz and onegu are my worst reads. You're on your own for them until I can collect my thoughts better. I haven't breadcrumbed some secret message about them, so if I'm about to go down, you all have to sort out that mess on your own. | ||
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On June 27 2013 10:41 Aquanim wrote: @Hurricane Sponge: I would be awfully careful about drawing conclusions from who the mafia choose to target with their NK. When all is said and done, the scum have control over the NK, and town drawing direct conclusions from who they choose to target may be entirely their intention in choosing that target. Especially in a case like this where I don't think there's a single obvious target that scum really should shoot, trying to second-guess their reasons for choosing one plausible target over another is pretty heavy WIFOM. You're right. This is WIFOM to a letter. But I think there are two very obvious targets for the mafia tonight. I was going to post who I thought was safe at the beginning of Night Time, and the list ended up being 8 people long. Then I thought, 'well, this doesn't help the town at all'. Hopefully the mafia screw up and shoot someone else, but if they do they're making a massive blunder. | ||
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If I die, just investigate Spicy, don't no-brainer him. I could get shot for my aggression on StiM. Aqua is right (about trying to derive motivation from NK's). Just know that those two would be the suspects I'd pursue first if I were killed. | ||
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##Vote: Onegu | ||
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Don't solicit votes this time. I want to see people's instincts. | ||
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On June 27 2013 11:12 Aquanim wrote: As far as I can tell, your entire town read on Spicy is based on Chromatically being the shot rather than you. As you said, he was in general the best shot. I don't see how this argument makes sense at all. I'm going to need an actual case from you on Onegu, including a reply to my comments about him here before I take your vote seriously. For that matter, I'd like to see your opinion on my comments on Spicy, too. If we start a "wagon of justice" on Onegu, ride it all day, and he flips town, we're pretty screwed. I'd like to at least discuss other options. Then discuss other options. What's your case? | ||
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Going to revisit all the Aqua heat. Anyone care to update their case on him? | ||
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On June 27 2013 11:29 hzflank wrote: Chrom did not seem to think Onegu was scum. He actually thought Spicy and Lone were the most likely scum. You could not be more wrong. Keep reading. | ||
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On June 27 2013 14:15 Onegu wrote: I will be filter diving again today. Btw we are so unlucky to lose parity cop night one as he is most likely the most powerful role. And again my apathy isnt a scum tell, I didnt care I posted I didnt care and I didnt hide. I will admit not voteing on a wagon looks bad but the way I did it isnt a scum tell. I wasnt hideing my opinion I was forthcomeing. I am going to look at stim and lonemeow close today. So you're off Alakaslam and Aqua now? | ||
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On June 28 2013 02:50 LoneMeow wrote: Okay, after reading a bit more I think I want to lynch Alakaslam. He's very spammy and posts a lot of fluff (he posted the Venn diagram multiple times). Doesn't give scum reads and when he does it's in a very non-committal way, "gut feels" and so. And now he goes for Stim, the easy lurker choice, and this is how he wants to get Stim lynched: That's the worse "case" on anyone I've seen, and this whole thing gives me the vibe that he's just massively non-committal. I get the same feel from his voting antics on day 1, first claiming he's not going to lynch Xzavier then voting for him anyway without much more of a comment than that he read Aquanim's case. Generally, I read him as trying to look active but not actually participating much, and that I find very scummy. ##Vote: Alakaslam This fits with LoneMeow's profile. Lonemeow has demonstrated a bias against posters who are poor at communicating their ideas. (Gotard and Umasi in XLII, Xzavier and Alakaslam in this game.) That said, this track record isn't amazing (all confirmed town except Alakaslam, so far). I don't want to hold it against you, LoneMeow, but recognizing biases in your play is sometimes a helpful reality check. I would strongly recommend you attempt to look past the rambling (not because it's not important, but because you've already analysed it), and see if you can't derive motivation from the posts. Specifically for Alakaslam, I'd check out his martyr post mid-Day 1. (I won't quote it here, because he should have to defend himself.) | ||
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Extremely Anti-meta... On June 24 2013 16:10 Onegu wrote: Ok guys meta on peoples play you shold have played with that person at least 5 times, as this is impossible please stop trying to meta peoples play. It is ok to infer somethings on game setup, but people are still learning thier playstyle in a newbie game so you cannot base a scum read on meta play in noob games... On June 25 2013 01:05 Onegu wrote: It is bad to connect meta on noobs because depending on what worked one game and what didnt work they will change how they play, meta is forming patterns based on peoples play, you cannot form a pattern on what someone did after only 2 -3 games. And I was refering to your asking about ongoing games when I said we are fine because we are citing games already finished, it had nothing to do with who you are citing but what you are asking about. I want you to form cases based on peoples posts and ask questions not go find old games and base you thoughts on what a coach did in one of his old games. On June 25 2013 13:36 Onegu wrote: As I have said meta is useless in a noobie game as people are still figureing out thier playstyle and as I was about to sleep 12 hours ago and I just woke up I dont see how the timeing is wierd... ... then uses Meta to defend StiM. On June 26 2013 02:21 Onegu wrote: And stim played this exact way last noob game and was VT, I see him as VT this game and his lynch acomplishes nothing. Picks on the most scatter-brained townie (umasi / alakaslam) in both XLII and XLIII games. Even links the two... On June 25 2013 02:47 Onegu wrote: Ebwop I figured it out Alakaslam is Umasi's cocaine dealer!!! ...and later admits that he views Alakaslam as the most inexperienced mafia player in the game On June 26 2013 15:45 Onegu wrote: You feel you need to bully the most inexperianced mafia player to vote for me? You have no case except a bogus scum tell so you have to bully someone to vote with you? Tries to set up a Day 2 lynch for Aqua on Day 1 when he switches his vote from Aqua to Alakaslam On June 25 2013 18:08 Onegu wrote: Ok fine I will admit my case on you with my own findings isnt that strong. And looking at Alakaslam again he is my stronger case. ##: UNVOTE ##: VOTE ALAKASLAM But if we lynch Xzavier and he flips town we will be lynching you day 2. Post-flip announces that he will be leading the Aqua bandwagon. Then proceeds to vote for FirmTofu: On June 26 2013 12:44 Onegu wrote: Wow like I told you guys before I slept if xzavier is lynched it will give us a ton of information, and yes now I will be leading the aquanim bandwagon as I felt he was scum and his vote and case on him before makes me feel he is the scummiest. Also makeing the claim I dont care brings way to much heat on me if I am scum when I can just put my vote back on aqua saying I should be on a bandwagon. On June 28 2013 01:27 Onegu wrote: Ebwop But for now you are more scummy and my vote is on you ##VOTE: FirmTofu Defense for day 1 voting apathy is WIFOM... On June 26 2013 12:44 Onegu wrote: Wow like I told you guys before I slept if xzavier is lynched it will give us a ton of information, and yes now I will be leading the aquanim bandwagon as I felt he was scum and his vote and case on him before makes me feel he is the scummiest. Also makeing the claim I dont care brings way to much heat on me if I am scum when I can just put my vote back on aqua saying I should be on a bandwagon. ...when he's already proven he's willing to do this as mafia in XLII. Has a history as mafia of doing the 'vote for who i think i scummiest even though they have no chance of being lynched today' play (He was the only one who voted on Umasi on Day 1 in XLII, much like he was the only one to vote on Alakslam in Day One here) On June 08 2013 08:46 ObviousOne wrote: Vote LoneMeow (1): Skanjab1s (0): iVLosK! (0): Spicydinosaur (0): Firere345 (5): Spicydinosaur, Gotard (4): StimmAddict (0): Umasi (1): Onegu Not Voting: tE_, Yavanna Firere345 is currently set to be lynched. Voting is mandatory. This is a plurality lynch. The deadline is at [unparsable timestamp format], in [unparsable timestamp format] If there's a mistake, let me know! On June 26 2013 10:57 geript wrote: Day 1 Final Vote Count Chromatically (0): hzflank (0): FirmTofu (0): Spicydinosaur (0): Xzavier (7): LoneMeow, Chromatically, Aquanim, FirmTofu, Hurricane Sponge, hzflank, Alakaslam Aquanim (2): Alakaslam (1): Onegu Hurricane Sponge (1): Spicydinosaur StiMaDDict (0): Not Voting: Xzavier the High School Student -- Vanilla Town has been stomped to death. His last words were, "Save the town power rangers. Combine the zords to make the megaultradragonzord and do karate type stuff with it. Let my death be a beacon of hope to all the AAAAAAaaaarrrrrrgggghhhhhahgggaaghghhhhghhahghgagagghaghhaghg." fyfy the High School Student -- Vanilla Town didn't look both ways when crossing the street and got crushed by the megaultradragonzord as it stopped at starbucks to get a cup of coffee. Power Rangers always need coffee to be able to do their stunts. Night 1 actions must be sent in by [unparsable timestamp format] Night 1 ends in [unparsable timestamp format] Likes to announce that specific townies are 'noob town' in both games. On June 25 2013 02:46 Onegu wrote: Umm not sure where you are going with this... I dont understand half your posts, but if you give me reasons you think I am scum I will be happy to defend myself and adress you points. About Hz he doesnt post alot of fluff unless you want to count the NN posts, I also just filtered him when you asked and saw him make scum reads. Some of it maybe sheeping but I dont think scum would do that to much, at least he is creating scum reads with some thought behind them. I see newbie town who isnt confident in his reads. On June 24 2013 12:52 Onegu wrote: Haveing a early day one post about reveals is very bad, no matter how good or bad someones role is. You have to remember scum have a tracker also so if they track the NN to someone they get a stronger read he is blue than just NN, if it is revealed then scum tracker doesnt have to worry about that possibility and just blue hunt. Second it isnt a big deal to confirm someone as town, it is a big deal to confirm someone as scum. You idea has alot of holes and the logic behind it is terribad. As such you are noob town to me. Has made actual cases this game; did not as mafia in XLII | ||
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Alakaslam, please respond. Everyone else, analyze VERY CAREFULLY before you post. | ||
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##unvote Onegu | ||
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At least he got the info to us now, but I agree... it's not ideal to drop something this big in the room and then leave for 8 hours. | ||
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On June 28 2013 08:32 FirmTofu wrote: I believe his "strongest town read" is hzflank or Spicy By the process of elimination, it cannot be Alakaslam, me, or Aquanim because he has stated his suspicions for all of us. It cannot be LoneMeow or StiM because a lurker cannot be rational person's strongest town read. It probably isn't Hurricane because Hurricane is currently pushing a strong case against him. The only players left are Spicy and hzflank. I do not think speculating on this helps the town at all, and I think you're on the wrong track anyway. Regardless, Onegu is correct for trying to shield the identity of his strongest town read, and I even think he made it a little TOO obvious when he said what he did. On June 28 2013 08:44 FirmTofu wrote: He is claiming that either Spicy or hzflank is a blue town role that visited Alakaslam last right. He refuses to say which of the two, but it is very easy to narrow down for any observer. What purpose did it serve to keep town in the dark? Either hzflank or Spicy needs to confirm what Onegu is saying about them, otherwise an Onegu lynch remains inevitable. Even if hzflank or Spicy confirm, we have to consider that they may be in a mafia team together. We will need to gather evidence for and against this and analyze it with the information we have at our disposal. It could also be the case that Onegu is a mafia tracker who tracked a town hzflank or Spicy to Alakaslam's house. We would also have to find evidence to refute this possibility. This whole post should be ignored. You are on the wrong track, Tofu. You're starting with way too many assumptions, and not vetting yourself as you expand thereafter. Still catching up on thread, but these thoughts were urgent and needed to be posted. | ||
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On June 28 2013 08:56 WaveofShadow wrote: Lazy as shit Vote Count Onegu (1): FirmTofu (1): Onegu Alakaslam (1): LoneMeow StiMaDDict (2): Aquanim, hzflank Not Voting: Alakaslam, StiMaDDict, Spicydinosaur If I screwed up somewhere, let me know! As of now, StiMaDDict is set to be rocketed into the sun by lazors and giant robots. Day 2 ends in [unparsable timestamp format] Add Hurricane Sponge to 'Not Voting' please | ||
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On June 28 2013 09:11 FirmTofu wrote: I don't really agree with you on a lot of points, but I can't see you deriving this up as scum. Thanks for all the input. The problem remains that no matter what, Onegu still has the best case against him by any player. Unless you have a stronger scum read and you can make a case for his lynch, you may have to lynch sub optimally. Consider the situation where you are wrong about Onegu. Scum will likely bandwagon whoever you choose to lynch as long as it isn't one of their teammates because they want to save Onegu. Be watchful of any bandwagons that form conveniently quickly on your scum reads. Also, I hope you have drafted a potential mafia team of 3 people . If Onegu isn't mafia, which 3 people are most likely to be on a team together? Are their voting patterns today indicative of their partnership? Tofu, you've made your opinion on Onegu clearer than clear twenty times over. I think a more productive use of your time at this point would be examining your secondary reads in the event we need your input on some of the other 7 people in the Town. Specifically, I want to hear who you think is scummy INDEPENDANT of your Onegu read. If your secondary reads are based on your Onegu read, I'm going to be very sad, but I understand. We have some time left today for real discovery and discussion though, and your thoughts on secondary scum reads would be very helpful for me at this point. | ||
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On June 28 2013 09:17 FirmTofu wrote: @Hurricane Are you not even willing to consider that Onegu may have lied about his claim? Are we just going to throw away all of the scum reads that we have built up over the course of the thread because of one claim that hasn't even been verified? I still don't see how this claim exonerates Onegu from a lynch when any scum could have easily pulled it off. First off, if you really are determined to spend your time on this, look through my filter and try to determine my actual level of suspicion on Onegu. Second, for now, I'd recommend clearing your head in regards to the Onegu claim's legitimacy. You seem to be coming from a very limited point of reference. I don't want to spell it out for you (and I won't), but if you are going to choose to devote daylight to this issue, go back and read the role descriptions in the OP. | ||
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The mafia have a sizable lead over us. They are not desperate at all right now. They've secured a mislynch, gotten lucky with a modkill, and sniped our Parity Cop. There is no reason for them to take insane risks right now. If Onegu were to make a false claim right now while under significant suspicion by two high-profile members of the town, it would be the worst play in the history of this game. His team is way up, and it's not like he needed a Hail Mary to save himself. The votes were stagnating on him. Making a claim gets the attention of the room (regardless of whether he's scum or town), and for someone in this position early Day Two (with plenty of time left for discovery on his claim), it's a stupid scum play. Furthermore, I can see a tired townie wanting to disclose information like this before they have to go to bed to give the Town as much information as possible while I'm away. Do you think scum would make this claim and go AFK without the ability to defend himself for 8 hours? Opening himself up for a counter-claim at this point is such a horrible Risk / Reward play, its staggering. Even if he didn't get counter-claimed, there's a significant chance we'd have enough time to be able to gather enough evidence to prove he was lying (given that we still have a lot of blue town roles unaccounted for), and he'd be in the spotlight. (Yes, I know you think he's in the spotlight already. He really wasn't.) Onegu is not a bad player at this game. I went through his entire XLII and XLIII filters this afternoon. These aren't the plays I think he'd make. Like I said, this isn't the primary reason I'm inclined to believe his claim, but it's a point worth raising. | ||
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LoneMeow has put a vote on Alakaslam, and has been pretty stingy with his reads. Chromatically raised an excellent point in his pre-NK post that LM has been very clever about following thread sentiment without raising any attention. 1. Doesn't want to make waves 2. Lurks hardcore 3. Accuses others of not contributing The next original thought I hear out of LoneMeow will be the first. Put your cards on the table, LM. What are your scum reads? | ||
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On June 28 2013 09:46 Aquanim wrote: Onegu should claim NOTHING more until Alakaslam tells us whether he was roleblocked or not. I hope you know where you're going with this, because I don't... | ||
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On June 28 2013 10:01 Spicydinosaur wrote: He has been flying under the radar. Though the alakslam vote seems different, wouldn't it be easier to just sheep onto the onegu vote? Either way, needs more posting than 1 person per round. I seem to be the only one defending Alakaslam. At this point, I'm willing to consider that my read is wrong. Reading through his filter, I just seem to get the over-eager vibe from a guy who's really new to (and maybe not suited for) this game. I'm not in the business of defending people when they should be defending themselves, but I honestly don't think he has the ability to capably defend himself. His first reaction when pressured was to throw in the towel and martyr'd hard: On June 25 2013 21:49 Alakaslam wrote: This is half true. I was terrified of being lynched, scum fall prey to that but there are other roles that have this affect on newbs. There is nothing I can do and I saw this coming soon a my quote included "make it clean like this guys" and it was the absolute worst looking post in the thread after having posted just to show that I was no lurker. I also played selfishly (as you'll see on flip) rather than from a town mindset. I started to seek survival and that is scummy and I know it too, is the sad thing. Just didn't put 2 &2 together, did not expect to wind up feeling like I was all survivalist as town :p I'm really sorry I couldn't put anything useful down before my likely exit, but this is my last ditch effort: Allow me to last the night. I still can't do much but I am a broken sheep, so looks like I'll go independent. Scum reads? Finally got one: Aquanim. Haven't read filters, haven't got a case, just want to contribute a skimmer's gut feeling before possible drasticness. Take it or leave it, especially as I must sleep as checkout is 1 pm and I checked In at a defeated 4:30. Fail at job, fail here but there is always another game  and the farm will irrigate again in a week or less.Ps: actually I have done table mafia but that is very different, I suck at that because I have AS. I thought I'd have a chance here, and still think so- just decided to go nuts in terror despite some awesome coaching to the contrary :D :S Great learning experience! The greats do what they do with skill. A silver leaguer trying to sentry expand may often find it countered by mass hydra (olllld WoL meta)- must start with Probes and Pylons, Probes and Pylons. Btw have a surprise final post if I get lynched/ killed XD See y'all around, when I was looking scummy to myself I knew OMGIS, it wassa comin! Good luck my friends, you will need it. DON'T not lynch me just because I had a hard day, if I really look scummy Lynch me dammit! Towns must know how to COMMIT! >: ) ##Vote: Aquanim Alakaslam, can you clear up this post for me? The bolded phrase in particular. | ||
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REMINDER: Everyone else, please do not speculate on why Onegu chose Alakaslam as his target. | ||
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I will follow up once I am of my right mind. | ||
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I need you to study your PM that you got from Night. Remember the homework I gave you? Please don't be offended, but I think I established that your reading comprehension sort of falters when you get excited. I need you to re-read the PM you got from the Mod regarding your night action, and tell me once you're absolutely positive that: 1.) You TRACKED Onegu 2.) Your PM said ONEGU visited ME, or if ONEGU visited YOU, or possibly BOTH Do not copy-paste your PM here, as that is against the rules. The game hinges on you understanding your PM, and you need to re-check it about ten to fifteen times to make sure we do not lose the game based on faulty information in this moment. | ||
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On June 28 2013 14:56 Onegu wrote: Quick thing before I walk out the door, I watched you Alakaslam, someone who I have a town read on visited you. I was hopeing to either confirm my suspicions on you or see if you are town by who visited you, I was unable to do so as the person who visited you doesnt confirm anything, except it makes me wonder why he visited you and the only thing I can think of is he thinks you are scum also. This makes me lean scum on you. It in no way clears you. This is not the reasoning I was looking for from Onegu to 'Watch' Alakaslam. I don't think I'm going out on a limb by saying that generally, most good Watchers would try to Watch a likely mafiakill target, to try to catch the person delivering KP. By stating he thought Alakaslam was scum, that obviously wasn't his intention. There is one good reason for a Town Watcher Onegu to target Alakaslam (if anyone knows it, do not say it. It is meaningless unless it comes from him), but if Onegu can't come up with it by the deadline, he's likely either a Mafia Tracker or Mafia Framer. I'm still working on scenarios for our current dilemma, but my Town/Town scenario relies on some outstanding questions I've issued to the moderators. | ||
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##Vote: Onegu | ||
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IN GENERAL: Tracking Scum makes sense (track the guy you think may take the shot) Watching Townies (NK targets) makes sense (watch the victim and you get the killer's name) Tracking Townies doesn't make sense (as a townie. It obviously makes sense as scum) Watching scum makes sense IN ONE VERY SPECIFIC CIRCUMSTANCE If our Watcher cannot give us this reason, he obviously did not do it for that reason. And thus, in this instance, his Watch target did not make sense. Alakaslam is claiming to be a Town Tracker. He 'tracked' a scum read. According to the above, this makes sense. Onegu is claiming to be a Town Watcher. He 'watched' a scum read. According to the above, this does not make sense. Even if the two claims weren't incompatible, the play motivation must be considered like this. Regarding the Watcher target: This in a vacuum could be explained by Bad Play, but in conjunction with reports from a Tracker claiming otherwise, it paints a significantly more sinister picture. No one is disputing that Onegu acquired knowledge last night. By some means, he deduced something that likely happened. However, it is not just a Watcher that could have figured that out. Indeed, it is actually MORE LIKELY in this scenario for a Mafia Tracker or a Mafia Framer to figure it out! A mafia Tracker could choose to 'track' a high-profile townie for various reasons A mafia Framer would CERTAINLY choose to follow THE MOST HIGH PROFILE TOWNIE NOT BEING SHOT THAT NIGHT. (If you don't know why, we need to get you back to Mafia School. At the time actions were declared, the Parity Cop was alive. Mafia know that the Cop will check his scummiest read vs. his towniest read. The framer's play is to figure out who is most everyone's towniest read, barring the person who is getting shot that night, and pay them a visit, essentially flipping their alignment and throwing the Parity Cop off course.) Both of these situations could explain how Onegu acquired the knowledge he did, and neither situation conflicts with Alakaslam's story. From the flipside, to claim that 'Slam is lying and scum, while Onegu is Town and a Watcher: Our town Watcher picked scum to watch for the night (sub-optimal use of the power, when there was a very clear target on the board) The Scum Tracker ('slam) tracked a townie who was under significant pressure and likely to be next-day lynched (Onegu) I know assuming optimal play is folly in a newbie game, but I'd like to assume my teammates and opponents aren't this terrible at this. Unless Onegu is a second Town Tracker and randomly lied by saying he's a Watcher, or came up with the luckiest guess in the history of lucky guesses to start today, there is no situation I can think of currently that Onegu is not scum. ------------- IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT FOR PEOPLE TO CORRECT ME IF ANY OF THE ABOVE LOGIC IS WRONG. THESE ARE THE ASSUMPTIONS MY DECISIONS ARE BASED ON, AND IF I AM TO RE-EVALUATE WITH NEW INFORMATION IT WILL TAKE TIME | ||
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On June 28 2013 18:16 hzflank wrote: This post is not to help the town, but rather to show Firm how my mind is working: The biggest reason why I think that Hurricane is town is because when I scumhunt on him I feel like he is also scumhunting on me. When I look at some other people is has looked like when they scumhunt on me they are actually looking for a scapegoat. If Hurricane made a case against me on Day 3 I would make a case against a third party. If Hurricane thinks that I am scum that does not mean that I think he is scum. In fact in my case, it almost seems that Hurricane is the only person who is actually scumhunting in my direction. Therefore, the fact that Hurricane voted for Onegu does not mean that Onegu thinks that Hurricane is scummy. Onegu has stated that many people are scummy but he has not given away many town reads. When I tried to work out his town reads I got Hurricane and myself. Who else? Spicy might be his third read, but if Onegu is town then Hurricane and myself are his top 2 town reads. I did not visit Alakaslam on night 1, and it appears that Hurricane did not either. You had me til the end. It is unconfirmed if Hurricane visited Alakaslam at this time. | ||
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On June 28 2013 17:58 LoneMeow wrote: Hurricane, I feel you're grasping at straws with your town-town scenario, why would you do that? Who's scum if they're both town? Because once I can rule out town-town, then we're really onto something. I'm not going to just assume scum-town when all it takes is a little legwork to completely rule out town-town. | ||
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On June 28 2013 17:58 Aquanim wrote: Hurricane and hzflank, I would like to confirm that you two will be in the thread before the lynch and you will have plenty of time to read the arguments I will be posting. With your two votes (assuming LoneMeow does not switch), we will have five votes (enough to ensure an Alakaslam lynch), if I can convince I believe that of these two Alakaslam is the scum. I don't trust Spicy or StiMaDDict to listen to me (because I suspect they're scum) and I don't think that FirmTofu is capable of detunneling from Onegu at this point. I will need both of you to listen to turn around this lynch. Any information you have is good, but at this point, today's lynch is likely to be settled by facts, not reads. The two claims we've received are a gift from god for the town at this juncture of the game. Any argument you have should likely revolve around them. (Yes, I will be around) | ||
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On June 28 2013 18:26 Aquanim wrote: Hurricane, I agree that watching a scum suspect is suboptimal play as a Watcher. I would like you to think about the possible rationale behind fake-claiming Watcher and to have watched somebody visit Alakaslam as scum in Onegu's position. If this is gonna work, you're going need to speak plain, or I'll need to get some sleep and get at this with a fresh brain. Is the information you're trying to convey too sensitive to just say outright? If so, I will put mental energy into this as you have requested. (But I won't like it.) | ||
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On June 28 2013 18:28 hzflank wrote: If you visited Alakaslam last night then your vote would now be on Alakaslam. Onegu claimed he saw someone visit Alakaslam. If you visited Alakaslam then you would of gone: "Oh, Onegu saw me, he is telling the truth". Why does Onegu seeing me mean he's the Town Watcher? He could be a Mafia Tracker. | ||
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It still doesn't explain why Onegu made such a horrible play as our Watcher though. | ||
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The one useful thing we got out of all this is that (barring a mod PM otherwise) we know that Alakaslam and Onegu are opposite alignments. Which is good. | ||
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On June 28 2013 18:40 hzflank wrote: Then we have to go back to: Why would Watch Onegu choose to watch Alakaslam? Also: How did the scum team know that you were Onegu's number 1 town read? it could of been you or me. They would of had to of guessed. It's a risky guess, but in the scum's eyes, they're probably more willing to throw Alakaslam to the wolves than any other member. I'm probably reaching. Simplest explanation is probably the best, but we certainly need to keep an open mind. Aqua will be doing us the favor of taking up the charge for 'Slam's lynch tomorrow (or rather, later today). | ||
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If anyone needs my opinion on something, now is the time to ask. Otherwise, I'm going to continue analyzing Aqua's argument. | ||
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Of course Mafia would want to know my exact role. How is that at all relevant to the current vote?! | ||
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We cannot let scum dictate who gets lynched tonight. Does anyone see a solution to this? (Other than relying on mass town coordination with split-second timing to switch once they both finally vote) | ||
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Don't feel like you have to make full cases on anyone, just give me your reads (gut feels are fine) that you think will be vital to the game going forward. @Alakaslam Ditto for you. Need a post of your reads in the event you are mislynched tonight. | ||
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On June 29 2013 03:22 FirmTofu wrote: I really wish StiM and LoneMeow would be more active. Whichever one of them is town may singlehandedly lose the game for town. For now, assume both are scum, and that this is an intentional lurker play to set up a last-second 2-vote hammer. Do you see a way to secure lynches on EITHER 'slam OR Onegu that will render this lurker play moot? | ||
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##unvote ##Vote: Alakaslam | ||
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On June 29 2013 03:30 LoneMeow wrote: I cannot ignore the logic in Aquanim's case. Claiming watcher is ridiculously risky, and Onegu wasn't in any real risk of being lynched at the time so why would he take such a massive gamble? Also, applying Occam's Razor to this: Would suggest that Alakaslam is scum, as that requires less coincidence. ##Vote: Alakaslam Not by much. Why WOULDN'T the mafia track me. They had the shot lined up on Chromatically (far and away the best player in this game), and wanted information on their planned Night Two NK target (me, the most credible townie remaining). | ||
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On June 29 2013 03:32 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Not by much. Why WOULDN'T the mafia track me. They had the shot lined up on Chromatically (far and away the best player in this game), and wanted information on their planned Night Two NK target (me, the most credible townie remaining). Alakaslam could be a Town Tracker, and Onegu could be a Mafia Tracker. Onegu could be Town Watcher, and Alakaslam could be a Mafia Tracker. Equally likely scenarios under Occam's Razor. You are going to have to start bringing a lot more heat to the table, LoneMeow. Your leash is running out fast. | ||
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On June 29 2013 03:33 FirmTofu wrote: There are too many people on the Alakaslam bandwagon, meaning that scum has to be on it. Q: Why would scum vote out their own man? A: They wouldn't. They are voting for someone they know to be town. Hurricane, I am deeply disappointed in you. You need to consider what the mafia team could possibly be at this point if Alakaslam is mafia. I have, haven't you? If we get a alakaslam mislynch, do you not see two immediate Mafia lynches lined up? | ||
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Slam, buddy, I'm sorry if you are town, but your death will not have been in vain. | ||
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2. The information we'd gain from an Onegu mislynch is inconsistent with the rest of the game. 3. The information we'd gain from an Alakaslam mislynch paints a very clear picture (and immediately implicates two people as mafia) 4. We can't guarantee that 'Slam will flip scum. 1 and 4 cancel out. You pick the best results from the remaining set (2 and 3). 3's results look WAY more likely than 2. | ||
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On June 29 2013 03:44 FirmTofu wrote: You just stated that this is the order of most information to least information gained: Onegu Scum Lynch Onegu Mislynch=Alakaslam Mislynch Alakaslam Scum Lynch Clearly lynching Onegu gives us more information than Alakaslam, therefore it is the optimal decision. If we were out of time and needed a big play, yes. But a mislynch results in a 2-for-1 trade (2 mafia die after the mislynch). We have the luxury of taking advantage of that play (barely). Obviously, we'd ideally get a mafia flip. But I'm not going to bet the farm that Onegu will flip scum, because if he doesn't, we're left with a much less plausible scenario than if 'Slam were to be mislynched. | ||
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On June 29 2013 03:51 FirmTofu wrote: If you truly believe 2. is true, wouldn't you also have to agree that the Onegu mislynch is unlikely BECAUSE it is inconsistent with the rest of the game? I think the problem is that we see the same issue with the Onegu mislynch, but I attribute it to the fact the Onegu is scum and you are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and say he is town because of it. Of course, you can see it both ways, but I would say that these two scenarios are equally likely and thus should cancel out. You cannot say this inconsistency makes Onegu more likely to be town. I ask you again. If Alakaslam is mafia, who constitutes the rest of his team? What are your reads? Likely, my reads would be StiM and LoneMeow. I'd have to briefly re-evaluate you, Spicy and HZ. There are more open ends with that situation than any other, but the point is moot because we'd have lynched a mafia, which is good. | ||
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On June 29 2013 03:51 FirmTofu wrote: If you truly believe 2. is true, wouldn't you also have to agree that the Onegu mislynch is unlikely BECAUSE it is inconsistent with the rest of the game? I think the problem is that we see the same issue with the Onegu mislynch, but I attribute it to the fact the Onegu is scum and you are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and say he is town because of it. Of course, you can see it both ways, but I would say that these two scenarios are equally likely and thus should cancel out. You cannot say this inconsistency makes Onegu more likely to be town. I ask you again. If Alakaslam is mafia, who constitutes the rest of his team? What are your reads? The information gained from the mislynches would not cancel out because the information gained is not equally plausible. | ||
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On June 29 2013 03:58 Spicydinosaur wrote: I would suggest relooking at tofu now as he's heavily trying to change your vote. He's already proven once that he lies to get a vote on a townie, and then again this morning he tried lying to me to get more to vote on onegu. He's also been wrong about most of the connections between people in this game (ie me and xzavier being scum buddies, onegu's town read being me or hz). He should be trying to change my vote if he truly believes an Onegu lynch is best for the town. I wish more people challenged my logic and forced me to defend my opinions. I feel like I've been given a free pass by much of the town for one reason or another. Yes, I'm glad no one is wasting their time scum-hunting me, but I make mistakes and assumptions just like everyone else. | ||
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On June 29 2013 04:01 FirmTofu wrote: I did consider it, but have since ruled it out as a possibility. We have already established that either Onegu or Alakaslam MUST be mafia. This puts mafia in an awkward position. They need to save their teammate because a lynch on them would spiral out of control and likely end up with multiple mafia lynches through consecutive days. If Alakaslam is mafia, StiM will likely get lynched the following day. If Onegu is mafia, we get (basically) get another confirmed mafia the next day. This is in no way the most likely scenario to play out. In fact, mafia may be ready to cut their losses on 'Slam as they sent him out here with a counter-claim on a gambit. Regardless, I don't really care about the reads that spawn off 'Slam if he's lynched and flips mafia right now because we'll have flipped a Red. There will be plenty of time for analysis later. A more productive use of time for me personally was analyzing 'In Case Of Mislynch' scenarios. | ||
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On June 29 2013 04:01 FirmTofu wrote: I did consider it, but have since ruled it out as a possibility. We have already established that either Onegu or Alakaslam MUST be mafia. This puts mafia in an awkward position. They need to save their teammate because a lynch on them would spiral out of control and likely end up with multiple mafia lynches through consecutive days. If Alakaslam is mafia, StiM will likely get lynched the following day. If Onegu is mafia, we get (basically) get another confirmed mafia the next day. Thus, I do not think that mafia, in this circumstance, would be willing to give up two of their members just to split the vote and appear innocent. They must choose the same wagon to prevent a snowball effectno matter which one flips mafia. Again, I want to reiterate that I am not voting Onegu because he is 100% scum. I believe the evidence against Onegu outweighs anything placed on Alakaslam. I also cannot see how or why a scum team would tell the flustering and bumbling Alakaslam to claim. Alakaslam genuinely looks like he is acting independently of any external input(aside from maybe a town coach). I figured it out. You want to buy a lottery ticket. I want to buy house insurance. | ||
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On June 29 2013 04:05 FirmTofu wrote: @Hurricane Could you maybe take a look at Alakaslam's initial claim and analyze whether his motives are coming from a town's perspective or not? I had a post drawn up on this, but decided not to post it because it wouldn't have benefited the town in any way. After I went diving through Slam's filter, I analyzed two posts in particular. His early Day 1 martyr post, and the sequence where he bursts forth with his claim to be the Green Ranger. These are null reads for me now. Tangentially related: Both Onegu and Alakaslam played horrible town games, in my opinion, for very different reasons. Onegu had a generally good game, but a handful of MASSIVE blunders. Alakaslam was lovable, but generally not useful except as a pro-town vote. Of course, his claim means that something incredibly good for the town may come of his death. At various times last night, I found myself saying, "He can't be town, that's such horribly anti-town play!" for both players. Much like I did with Xzavier. So I've learned my lesson from the Xzavier lynch. I'm not assuming a successful lynch today, and I've chosen to focus on how we can make the most of a mislynch on a target that is also likely to flip scum. | ||
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On June 29 2013 04:08 FirmTofu wrote: I just don't think the likelihood of a fire is very high, and the odds of winning the lottery are 50/50. But if your lottery ticket is a bust, we're left with nothing. At least with insurance, we can throw a bitchin' fireworks party. | ||
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On June 29 2013 04:13 Spicydinosaur wrote: For the exact purpose of getting you to think like this. We both know there are general assumptions of how scum players act or are supposed to act. We also know that scum change up their game and do things that wouldnt exactly line up as scummy to better hide. Spicy, this is WIFOM, and I don't think it's the most likely scenario. I think 'Slam may have acted independently because he has to. If StiM and Lonemeow are afk in mafia QT, 'slam is having to make these plays himself. | ||
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On June 29 2013 04:20 Spicydinosaur wrote: I agree its probably not what occurred, i just didnt like tofu assuming it away like he has some additional knowledge of the situation. Tofu makes leaps like this, check his filter. Not a huge scum tell to me. This aspect is just a slight liability to the town. He makes good (actually great) cases, but he struggles when the situation calls for re-evaluating them. | ||
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Would you call me crazy if I had a keen eye on a StiM modkill tonight? | ||
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On June 29 2013 04:22 FirmTofu wrote: I believe the lynch on Alakaslam already has majority. I am helpless. I have tried to convince everyone that we are making a mistake, but no one seems to agree. Hurricane makes some good points, but they are dependent on the belief that Alakaslam has no obvious scumbuddies. I completely disagree, so I do not share Hurricane's view. Aquanim seems like he is just choosing to lynch Alakaslam because he has a strong town read on Onegu. We will see if this read is justified soon enough. Everyone else on the Alakaslam wagon screams scum to me for numerous reasons I have pointed out before. Are you saying that you do see obvious scumbuddies for Alakaslam? If so, doesn't this make you more comfortable with a 'Slam lynch? | ||
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On June 29 2013 04:25 FirmTofu wrote: Moving forward, I would like to chart the course for town following an Alakaslam mislynch. Shall we get started? Soon, but not now. I want to see the mafia do the Scum Vote Shuffle for a bit. Our night time is long, and our actions simple. It will not take much time to plot our course forward. | ||
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On June 29 2013 04:35 FirmTofu wrote: Even though I think basing your play around that would benefit my case, I do NOT think you should base your play around it. Modkills should not be an active component of the game and we shouldn't change our play in anticipation of one, IMHO. This. The spirit of the game is to assume active participation. StiM's M.O. is to swoop in at the last second anyway. I only mentioned the modkill as a possibility to mentally prepare people, not to seriously gameplan around it. I think he will post, he will vote, and he will continue to be less than helpful. | ||
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Reminder to all Town: a mislynch is not the end of the world here. It's important that we to follow through on this plan and not fall into despair or go rage afk. A mislynch is a real possibility, but if 'Slam does flip town, we have a lot of clear evidence (and the names of two mafia members) to actually help us make up ground. Lynching those two will get us to the endgame with a nice 2-on-1 shot of winning this thing. | ||
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Please make StiM answer all questions directed at him by himself. He has lurked all game, and we need more material from him. If you swoop in and answer on his behalf, you will make Sponge very unhappy. | ||
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On June 29 2013 10:05 StiMaDDict wrote: What I understand so far.. Onegu was leading in vote so claimed Watcher. He watched Alak and his strongest townread (Hurricane) visited Alak. In response, intentional or not, Alak said that he saw Onegu visit Hurricane. My thoughts.. If I was believe Onegu's claim, then why did Hurricane visited Alak? I was wondering if Hurricane was either a jailkeeper or roleblocker. Do you think I should claim which role I am at this time, StiM? Remember my public service announcement, everyone. | ||
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On June 29 2013 10:16 hzflank wrote: Things we know: Onegu claimed Watcher. Alakaslam counter-claimed Tracker. I'd make a slight amendment to that: Onegu claimed Watcher. Alakaslam enthusiastically tandem-claimed Tracker (with no public intent of countering Onegu's claim). It turns out these claims are incompatible. | ||
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Why do you think think Onegu wanted to claim he saw something at all? | ||
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And a bandwagon was forming on Alakaslam. | ||
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On June 29 2013 10:37 StiMaDDict wrote: Then I don't see why Onegu would claim.. I know you had a scum read on me and if I remember correctly FirmTofu was on Onegu.. The whole town has a scum read on you, because you haven't contributed anything in 120 hours of this game. | ||
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On June 29 2013 10:38 hzflank wrote: Correct me if I am wrong here: Alakaslam flips red then: Onegu is town LoneMeow is town Aquanim is town Spicy is town Hurricane is town Don't post these until StiM puts his vote down. | ||
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On June 29 2013 10:39 StiMaDDict wrote: FirmTofu, what do you make of Alak? I know that you believed Onegu was a scum since the end of Day1. StiM, the time has come for you to vote and give your reasons why. We are minutes away from the deadline, and you require time to craft this post. Your discovery phase has unfortunately ended. | ||
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On June 29 2013 10:38 hzflank wrote: Correct me if I am wrong here: Alakaslam flips red then: Onegu is town LoneMeow is town Aquanim is town Spicy is town Hurricane is town Also, I do not find this accurate. You can compare lists once StiM posts his vote. | ||
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On June 29 2013 10:43 hzflank wrote: Once Stim has voted, please tell me where I am going wrong with this. Gladly. I have to switch computers to get my list. Incoming soon... | ||
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Aqua is Scum Alakaslam is Scum StiM is probably Town ------------------------------- If Onegu is lynched (Mafia): Aqua is Scum Alakaslam is Town StiM is probably Town Tofu is Town ------------------------------ If Alakaslam is mislynched (Town): Aqua is scum Onegu is scum StiM is probably Town LoneMeow is scum ------------------------------- If Alakaslam is lynched (Mafia): Aqua is Town Onegu is Town -------------------------------- If Alakaslam mislynches: Mafia team is Aqua, Onegu, LoneMeow | ||
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Aqua tried to derail the Onegu train early, and defended him even before the claims I can't remember my reasoning for putting the second part. Could be a typo, but I was sure there was a reason. The list was made at 5am. Again, posting in a rush. | ||
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On June 29 2013 10:54 hzflank wrote: I think Hurricane is wrong in at least one of those 3. I am. I can't remember why I put Aqua as scum on an onegu town lynch. I had a reason at 5am, but it escapes me now. I just copy-pasted the whole sucker as I want to get all this out there. | ||
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If Slam mislynches, I'm: 99% sure Onegu is scum 95% sure Aqua is scum 50/50 on others (pending analysis of today and night time) | ||
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A mislynch always sucks, but Slam was radio silent this whole time. He mentioned himself he was mentally checked out of this game, so as long as the rest of town stays motivated going forward, we'll win this. | ||
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Never let anyone convince you otherwise. | ||
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On June 29 2013 11:05 FirmTofu wrote: No. I am not going to vote Aquanim unless you make an extraordinary case against him. Spicy is my top read for too many reasons to count. We should be lynching him after Onegu. If town doesn't vote unanimously, mafia get to choose the lynch target. | ||
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On June 29 2013 11:10 Aquanim wrote: I'll have to think about association with Onegu and that might take a while, but for now this is where I'm at: Spicy: didn't commit hard to either lynch today. Still got no reasons to think he's town. Nothing much has really changed about Spicy since my read at the end of Night 1. StiMaDDict: still hasn't done jack LoneMeow: hasn't done much of anything, and vote for Alakaslam now doesn't look real good. Still pretty sure everyone else (besides Onegu, obviously) is town but I suppose I'd better take another look at everyone to be sure. StiM cast a crucial vote against Onegu. If you're still suspecting him, you're obviously not analyzing from a pro-town perspective. | ||
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The mafia play here is to kill me tonight (since I'm probably the only one who can convince Tofu of anything at this point), resulting in a split vote on Day 4 and a mafia win. | ||
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It doesn't matter, I'm never going to win a tunnel battle with you, Tofu. You are the tunnel king and I'm ready to just start throwing haymakers. I feel like I've said everything there is to say, the game is solved, and I'm probably going to die tonight anyway, so I don't have a vote left in this game. The scum team is Onegu, Aqua and LoneMeow (or Spicy, I haven't looked that far ahead yet). | ||
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On June 27 2013 22:35 Aquanim wrote: PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT If you have been roleblocked (you will have been notified by a PM from the host), claim in the thread in your next post that you have been roleblocked. This is NOT a claim that you have a role to be blocked. A player with no powers may also be blocked. This information is far more valuable to the town than it is to mafia when revealed. If you doubt this, check any recent normal game with roleblock/jailkeeper roles. (It just occured to me that no-one has said this yet, and perhaps there's someone who doesn't know.) We all let this slip by. Mafia want to know if they're contending with a JK. | ||
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On June 24 2013 18:14 Aquanim wrote: The trouble with relying on a Nosy Neighbour counter-claiming later on is that we have no guarantee that there is even a Nosy Neighbour in the game. If there isn't, and scum fake-claims it, they get away scot-free. Sure, we could lynch an uncounterclaimed Nosy Neighbour, but enforcing a claim of it day 1 avoids considerations of "did he only claim it to avoid a lynch?". If there is an actual NN, and scum fake-claims it, then they get counter-claimed and lynched, which is OK. Also, if there is a Nosy Neighbour and they are forced to claim at LYLO, then scum can counter-claim and leave us with a 50-50 chance (which might be a lot better than what they faced before). Since scum would probably only claim NN if it was a choice between a fakeclaim and being lynched, if the NN claim is not available to them they're just as dead (if not more) than if they were counter-claimed anyway. Thus there is no advantage to leaving a NN claim till later in the hopes of counterclaiming a fakeclaim. Already plotting fake-claims, and wants NN to claim early so he knows if that's an option for his team. | ||
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On June 24 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote: You wound me. Regarding claims I'm of the opinion that the Nosy Neighbour/Alpha 5 should claim now. This role is similar to a Miller in that it isn't useful for town at all, and could seriously backfire if they are watched/tracked/whatever by a townie. I don't see any downside to a Nosy Neighbour claiming, the worst case is that they play obvtown, get shot, and draw a shot away from actual town power roles. The biggest reason a Nosy Neighbour should claim now is that it eliminates the possibility of a scum fake-claiming it later if he is caught shooting/using a PR on someone. If we establish that a Nosy Neighbour should claim now, anyone claiming it later is caught scum. Obviously, scum can claim Nosy Neighbour so whoever claims it isn't confirmed town by any means. No other power roles should claim, that would be daft. (However, scum should feel free to claim their roles.) Regarding scum Current scumread is Chromatically for two reasons. 1) I don't like the feel of his initial posts. Making troll-cases to get the game rolling is fine, I have no objection to that in as of itself, but there's a certain nit-picking quality to his posts that feels wrong to me. Trying to read something into someone not posting for five minutes is ludicrous. 2) He's been doing a lot of asking other people for their reads while offering nothing even approaching one of his own. ##Vote: Chromatically Makes a case on confirmed townie #1 | ||
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On June 25 2013 12:54 Aquanim wrote: I have to admit I've been having trouble understanding what Alakaslam has said so far... but I'm having difficulty seeing his thing about "spamming up the thread with bad bbcode -> scum" (link) coming from a scum player. It just feels too... enthusiastic. I get the overall impression that he is trying. I'd love to see more from him but I'd prefer to lynch Xzavier or Onegu at this point. (A quick note: LoneMeow did say pregame that he would be on vacation until the 27th, so I'm inclined not to lynch him today.) Defends LoneMeow lurking awkwardly | ||
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On June 25 2013 15:49 Aquanim wrote: - LoneMeow's two posts feel more constructive than the entirety of your filter - StiMaDDict is a coinflip - I feel like fyfy, Hurricane Sponge and Alakaslam are at least trying, even if they are not being very effective so far. There could well be scum in this group but I'm not nearly as confident about any one of them as I am about you and Onegu. Voting in as of itself is not scumhunting. You aren't trying to gain information by voting me and your case is pretty bad, which doesn't really leave any possible towny motivation for your vote. Bolded | ||
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On June 25 2013 16:48 Aquanim wrote: You mentioned that he might be scum, but I haven't seen any attempt from you to pressure him, to solidify your read on him, or to suggest him as a lynch for today - that is, you haven't committed much to your read. What about his play is scummy to you? On June 25 2013 18:12 Aquanim wrote: Okay. The ball's in your court now to convince the rest of us that Alakaslam is a better lynch than anyone else on the table. Coaching scum | ||
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On June 26 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote: I think that a hypothetical Vigilante should probably NOT shoot tonight for the following reasons: 1) Statistically speaking, the vigilante is unlikely to die between now and the next night phase. They could get shot by scum, but they're unlikely to be lynched (since they can claim Vigilante). I expect that by night 2 our reads will be a lot stronger and a vigilante will be able to shoot scum with much higher confidence. 2) If the vigilante does shoot tonight and shoots a townie, then (after a scum NK) there will be 8 players remaining in the game, and probably 3 of them will be anti-town. This will be a MYLO situation on day 2 - that is, if we mislynch again, we almost certainly lose right away (barring lucky night actions), and even if we lynch scum we're faced with the same situation again. While obviously the goal is to lynch scum every day, I'd prefer not to have to lynch 3 scum in a row or instantly lose... Don't get me wrong, if StiMaDDict were to go mysteriously missing in the night I wouldn't grieve much, he's been bloody useless so far. However, I think it's worth waiting the extra day to be sure that he (or whoever else is being considered for a Vig shot) is actually scum, since the consequences of shooting a townie are so dire. Spicy, on the other hand, would be a poor vigilante shot IMO - he's posted enough that we would get more out of discussing lynching him than simply shooting him. Tries to protect Onegu from a vig shot not by defending onegu (like a townie would) but by trying to make it a Policy play. | ||
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On June 27 2013 10:18 Aquanim wrote: I was going to do this anyway, but I decided I just had to quote these as titles. (Honestly I doubt I'm going to die tonight, but between unknowable scum motivations, overzealous vigilantes and inscrutable Serial Killers one can never quite be sure...) If I die tonight, town should increase their scum-read on "X" and "Y" because of "Reasons" Spicydinosaur. See the section on him below. In case I die tonight, for the record, I believe "Z" and "B" to be very town. Chromatically and, to a lesser extent, Hurricane Sponge. Hurricane has picked up his play a lot since the lynch (which is a little odd) but both of them and I are too much on the same wavelength. In case I die tonight, give "L" some space to play: LoneMeow. I've liked what I've seen of his play so far, but there just hasn't been enough of it. Apparently he's been on vacation, but the fact that he hasn't felt the need to say it ingame, let alone use it as an excuse, is a good sign. @LoneMeow: You mostly weren't here day 1 and you've got some catching up to do in terms of proving your credentials as a townie. I appreciate there are some people <glares at StiMaDDict> who've done even less than you, but don't use that as an excuse. If I live through tonight, I look forward to speaking with you. If I die tonight have a good long think about your scumread on "V": Onegu. See the section on him below. If I die tonight, "κ" and "∅" are still basically policy lynches in my view: Alakaslam and StiMaDDict. Alakaslam's incessant martyring is really making me grind my teeth, but... fundamentally it's just another of those things I wish was scummy. He is posting some arguments and thinking about the thread a little, but is the analysis he's provided something scum could cook up? I still have no idea. StiMaDDict continues to do sweet fanny adams. We may just have to lynch him, or threaten to enough that he bloody well talks to us. If I die tonight I never got around to thoroughly reading " " and " ": FirmTofu and hzflank. I'm feeling townish on both of these two but if I'm wrong on my townreads I think it's probably these ones. On Spicydinosaur + Show Spoiler + The point was made early in the thread that Spicy was playing defensively. I would rather term his play as "reactive". Spicy's reply to this was as follows: On June 24 2013 12:39 Spicydinosaur wrote: I do this in all my games, check out Les Mafiafor a good example. Though i don't see how that is alignment indicative as no one wants to get lynched. I thought maybe I should actually go and read Les Mafia. Oh boy..... In Les Mafia, Spicydinosaur was a Parity Cop. I would characterise his play in the following way:
I strongly suggest that everybody read Les Mafia and get your own feeling for Spicy's play in that game. (Before anyone yells out that meta isn't a valid tool for analysis, Spicy provided this HIMSELF to justify his actions. Obviously, he thinks that it is a valid tool to analyse his play.) His argument with FirmTofu (you know the one) isn't particularly alignment-indicative to me. He is flinging a lot of shit at FirmTofu, but I can't say that he wouldn't do this as town too. This section of his filter could bear further analysis I feel. Spicy's reads so far (shortly summarised) are as follows:
I may have missed some reads but I don't think any of them were significant. In short, none of these reads make me think "town" and they all seem pretty convenient from a scummy perspective. Do I think Spicy's scum for not arguing harder for a switch away from Xzavier onto Hurricane? Not really, the thread sentiment was pretty strong against Xzavier at that point and it would take an awfully strong townie to face up to that. But it certainly isn't a towny indication, either. tl;dr I haven't found much of anything in Spicy's filter which makes me strongly think town, and unlike Onegu I'd expect there to be something if he was town. My gut says scum, but I want to look for more before drawing final conclusions. On Onegu + Show Spoiler + As far as I can tell the case on Onegu boils down to a few main points: 1) His 'apathy' to the day one wagons - generally indicative of scum not wanting to take responsibility. 2) The less-than-persuasive nature of his cases Is this a plausible interpretation of Onegu's actions if he's scum? I think it is. However, it is not the only possible interpretation. 1) Onegu did, and always has had, a scumread on me. I suspect it's mostly a gut read, since the reasons he's raising are not very strong. He was at one point the primary force behind my wagon, I'd say; at least he was arguing his point. However, at a certain point he jumped off my vote and went to Alakaslam instead. If he's scum, he could have convincingly stayed on my wagon for a great deal longer than he did - hell, he could have rode that wagon all the way to a mislynch without looking terminally scummy. He wasn't under a great deal of pressure to move his vote at that point, except from me - I have difficulty seeing the direct scum motivation for this move. Question: After switching vote to Alakaslam, do you think Onegu *could* have switched his vote back to me without looking absolutely awful, whatever his actual alignment? As such, was he actually as apathetic to the lynch as the final place his vote ended up might indicate? Onegu had already taken a fair bit of responsibility for his read on me. Furthermore, do you think Onegu was capable of effectively arguing against the strong prevailing thread sentiment towards the end of the day? I don't. 2) Just because he's wrong, and hasn't made accurate cases, is no guarantee that Onegu is scum. The question you have to ask yourself is "Is Onegu honestly searching the thread and trying to find scum?". Again, for me, this is a definite maybe. I still want to see Onegu play some more to convince myself whether he is sincere in his accusations. Other people in this game are reading filters and making high-level, rational conclusions from their overal understanding of the game, and that's a town indication for me. Scum prefer to nitpick because it's harder for them to be caught out in a lie or inconsistency, and is inherently less work. They're not interested in That being said, just because someone isn't effectively hunting for scum doesn't mean they aren't trying to hunt for scum. I think the most important thing in trying to read Onegu is to assess whether he is honestly and sincerely trying to find scum. tl;dr I think there is a reasonable explanation for Onegu's actions from both a town and a scum perspective. Wants us to give LoneMeow space to play. Says to be more suspect of Onegu if he dies (Scum knows they won't die) | ||
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On June 27 2013 10:23 Aquanim wrote: @Chromatically: What makes you think that "mostly agrees with you, but doesn't have time to fully flesh out his ideas and make his own thread impact" isn't a reasonable explanation for LoneMeow's play to date? Also, I think Spicy would have looked a LOT worse if he'd backflipped on his Xzavier read. In fact I can't see any reason why he'd vote Xzavier if he was scum. Defends LoneMeow again. | ||
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Protecting LoneMeow again | ||
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On June 27 2013 11:39 Aquanim wrote: To make myself absolutely clear, I am not convinced that Onegu is town. For me he is clearly in the scummier half of the players in this game. However, I am not convinced enough that he is scum to make a serious commitment to lynching him less than an hour into the day when we are 1 mislynch away from 4-3 LYLO (afaik in the entire history of TL mafia, town has won from that position exactly once). I will continue to examine his play myself, and if my view of his play should change my attitude to his wagon will change also. For now I'd like to discuss Spicy and StiMaDDict, as well as Onegu, as potential lynches today. To date the only person who has responded to my points about Spicy was Chromatically. I'd like to hear some other opinions. Tries to play on specific LYLO fears with an Onegu lynch, not mislynches in general. | ||
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On June 27 2013 18:19 Aquanim wrote: @Onegu: The prevailing thread sentiment at the moment appears to be that you are a favoured lynch for today. I imagine you don't want that, so who do you think we should lynch instead? Your goal should be to persuade the thread that your scum read is more likely to flip scum than you are. Asking leading questions. Instead of 'defend yourself' it is 'who should be lynch instead'. | ||
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On June 28 2013 00:02 Aquanim wrote: That being said, @Onegu: If you are in fact town, the way to convince us of that is to post and to show you are seriously analysing the game and looking for scum. Coaches scum again | ||
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On June 28 2013 09:46 Aquanim wrote: Onegu should claim NOTHING more until Alakaslam tells us whether he was roleblocked or not. Again, tries to figure out if there's a Town JK, this time by trying to trick Alakaslam into divulging the information. | ||
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On June 28 2013 15:55 Aquanim wrote: This is true. However, if he did see a Tracker or a Jailkeeper, whoever that is should claim as they will 100% prove that Alakaslam is scum. Revealing a power role is definitely worth a 100% confirmed lynch. Wants blues to claim when it isn't relavent to the situation | ||
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On June 28 2013 20:42 Aquanim wrote: Why did they have to know? Alakaslam's claim that Onegu visited Hurricane (as opposed to visiting anyone else) could just be a coincidence. Literally no townie thought like this. Displays a completely different frame of reference | ||
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On June 28 2013 21:17 Aquanim wrote: Oh damn, I forgot the most important reason why scum can't fakeclaim Watcher: Scum essentially have to shoot a Watcher since he is too great a threat to them. A Tracker? - not so much. There's a reasonable chance that they won't target the scum, at least not the ones with the nightkill. Scum could plausibly shoot a strong townie over the Tracker IMO, if only to introduce WIFOM. A Watcher, on the other hand, is much more likely to watch the nightkill target - and get a basically confirmed scum every time he does. If a claimed Watcher doesn't die he is very likely to be scum - Watcher is a crazy powerful town role. Misleading town with faulty logic | ||
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On June 29 2013 10:52 Aquanim wrote: LoneMeow voted for Alakaslam FIRST He just decided to vote again, god knows why Defending LoneMeow: Leader of Mafia Mislynch-wagons | ||
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Mafia have already secured a split vote if Tofu won't budge from Spicy. | ||
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See: On June 27 2013 10:28 Chromatically wrote: Things I don't like about LoneMeow This post seems like Meow really doesn't want to rock the boat at all and draw attention to himself. He pressures me in the most non-confrontational possible way, and then agrees with me on Xzavier. He doesn't offer any original opinions (or any other opinions at all). This is a theme throughout his posting. This vote has very, very little reasoning behind it. Xzav happened to be, even at this point, the closest thing that town had to a consensus on a scumread. I had started pressuring hz right before this post, so Meow calls him town (leaving wiggle room, of course) because that was what everyone besides me was saying. He doesn't offer a single original opinion here. He doesn't offer any opinions at all, in fact, other than the ones that were widely agreed upon. He asks some questions to the other lurkers, but never follows up on them. This really shows that he's not actually interested in what they say. He's only doing it to look like he's interacting with the town. This is posted when the Xzav lynch is uncertain (only Meow, me, and Aqua onboard). Several people were defending Xzav at this point. Meow makes sure to leave an out, so that way he can switch off easily if need be ("I wasn't as sure and my town reads were defending him"). Right as the case on Stim is posted, and a Stim wagon is a very real possibility, Meow comes in and says that he'd be willing to switch. Notice how he's continually leaving his options open: he has an excuse to either stay on Xzav or switch to Stim if necessary. Both of these reads are carbon copies of the town sentiment. That's almost all of his posts. Remember how he just said that he'd switch to Stim if he never came back? Didn't happen. Meow never mentions Stim again after this, because the wagon on Stim doesn't happen. Literally every read that he has is exactly what the town is thinking. He doesn't offer his own opinion on anyone besides the centers of attention, Xzav/Stim (and a little hz). He also leaves his options wide open just in case he needs to move. He posts just enough so that he's seen as the most town of the lurkers, but that's exactly what scum would do as a lurker. Meow has been blending in and not drawing attention to the max, the ESSENTIAL characteristic of scum play. | ||
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Does someone want to clue me in as to why Spicy is a suspect? | ||
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On June 29 2013 12:20 FirmTofu wrote: Instead of me making a case for Spicy, I want you to make one first. This will greatly help us as a team because I trust you and you trust me as sincere town. We can bounce ideas off of each other without having to suspect one another's motives. I want you to find everything that you think makes Spicy scummy and anything that makes you think Spicy is town. Please don't look at this exercise through "I've got to convince everyone that Aquanim is mafia" glasses. I want you to analyze Spicy from an unbiased point of view and give me your thoughts about him, good or bad. Try not to convince me one way or the other, just try to present each individual point and explain why you feel a certain way about it. Homework is good. I will do this (was planning on it anyway). There's two obvious relationships that emerged that I spotted while diving Aqua's filter. Aqua is irrationally supportive of LoneMeow Aqua has consistently pushed that Spicy is scum The natural follow-up to the Aqua Dive was the Spicy Counter-Dive. Expect my next post tomorrow. I will be out for the rest of the night. | ||
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On June 30 2013 00:56 Spicydinosaur wrote: Case on stim. d1 he picks aqua as a target and votes him at the very end not really affecting the vote. he blows up aquas position on nn policy and r a ils on him for the xzavier vote. What I see here is a scum on scum vote meqnt to be used later for cred in the event aqua dies. D2 stim disappears again till qn hour before the vote and claims ignorance of the situation. He fake buys his time asking questions and seeing the votes. Knowing that slam will be killed regardless of the vot3, he votes against it for town cred. Also he is actually active in the post lynch talk.... but why? Because scum only need 1 misslynch to win so hes trying hard now to get there. This doesn't feel thought-through. A scenario where StiM and Aqua are both scum is unlikely. | ||
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On June 30 2013 02:04 hzflank wrote: Gah I did not want this posted yet :p A case where Stim and Aqua are both scum is almost zero. Apologies. But at least this reinforces my Town read on you, for whatever that's worth. | ||
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On June 30 2013 02:03 hzflank wrote: Context is important. Not all games have Jailkeepers. Not all games lose two greens on day 1 and a blue on night one. We know that either Hurricane was tracked or Hurricane is Framer. We did not know that at the time, but the scum team knew it. When Aqua wanted the roleblocked claim we did not know whether or not we had a Jailkeeper, and the scum team did not know this either. Assuming that Hurricane is town: which team had the most to gain from knowing whether someone was roleblocked? The information allowed the scum team to pin down Hurricane's role (they already tracked him). They already killed a blue on night one and a JK kill on night 2 would have been the best scenario for them. Also, the scum team knew that Onegu might claim today. He could be counter claimed by a Watcher or Tracker. If a Tracker counter claimed then the scum got a 100% read on Hurricane's role. On the other hand, the information allowed the town to know that there is no roleblocker or JK in the game. What benefit did the town gain from knowing that? I swear, the second I read Aqua's Public Service Announcement I face-palmed. I did not think that Aqua was scum as he was in my town list, but I did think that he was making a mistake. Ditto for Aqua's policy post that tried to defer the Vig Shot on Onegu. | ||
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On June 30 2013 02:12 hzflank wrote: I have been thinking a lot about Mafia as this is my first game. One of the reasons we are losing if because the town players are playing Mafia very badly. We are letting the scum pretend to be bad town. We are defending scum so that they do not have to defend themselves. I am as guilty of this as anyone. However, we need to start actually playing the game if we want to win. To be fair, there was a lot of Town playing as actual Bad Town this game as well... I'm hesitant to publicly team up in a 3-Man Townie squad, because that basically tells the mafia exactly how to direct their NK's. | ||
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Don't invest TOO much time into this train of thought yet, though. I'll claim if I need to, but all the evidence has been spilled out in my filter. @hz specifically  | ||
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On June 26 2013 04:53 Hurricane Sponge wrote: @hzflank I just went through your filter. You're the only vote on Aqua that I can't explain. You mention yourself in the case you make on him that it's pretty weak, and you were more posting it for his benefit to refute it than as a serious post. To be clear: No one suspects you. Now, everyone is getting his bandwagon ready. I'm wondering if you are still experiencing the lack of conviction on your pick, or if having people jump on board has convinced you? What is your play here? | ||
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On June 30 2013 09:37 Aquanim wrote: Alakaslam saw Onegu visit you, didn't he? You're not dead, so Onegu wasn't carrying scum KP. Therefore, Onegu has a scum PR. Oh right. You're right. In my head, visiting someone doesn't equal Power Role (but in reality, this only applies to myself). | ||
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If I die, you can always dive my filter. Nothing has really changed for me except that I don't think StiM is super duper scum. But my main message is for Town to trust their reads. I think everyone here has great reasons for their reads and needs to follow them. Compromise when you think it is appropriate, but I have faith that the current townie skill level exceeds that of the mafia team. If I die, vet your feelings for Aqua carefully. If you come to the conclusion that he is town, move on to the next guy. I think there's a very odd link between Aqua and LoneMeow that deserves looking into. You guys have done your homework on Spicy, so you probably don't need my thoughts on him, but explore relationships there too. Go back and read my posts on Xzavier and fyfy (post-mortem). Read Chromatically's last thoughts. The dead are keys to Town victory. | ||
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To paraphrase an earlier metaphor, I'm with Tofu now. It's time to buy lotto tickets. | ||
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On June 30 2013 10:05 hzflank wrote: Don't worry Onegu's gone day 3, 8-1 vote count. Oh btw, Hurricane wont die. If I am reading this right then I am about to be shot by scum, which means that no one dies tonight. Hurricane is either lynched Day 4, or killed Night 4, and in a few minutes I will tell you why... (I love me some conspiracy, it seems) You OFFICIALLY have my attention. | ||
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On June 30 2013 10:11 hzflank wrote: Conspiracy theory time. Why yes, yes I think that it is. It makes for a great set play. If there is an NN then the scum team can potentially convince the town to mislynch their Tracker/Watcher in exchange for the Mafia Framer. Then, when he (Onegu) flips Framer, the scum team will claim that Hurricane must be scum. It is in fact likely that a Framer and Tracker both targeted Hurricane. If you had to pick a target for this play then Hurricane would have been perfect, as his very early post was about NN policy. It would be better for the scum if they knew exactly who the NN was when making this play. Remind me who it was that made a case on day 1 that the NN should claim? Once the scum team got the results of their night actions, they knew that Hurricane was was either NN, JK or tracker. Their next play would depends on whether Hurricane was NN or a good role, so they wanted to uncover this. Remind me who it was that was so eager to know if anyone was roleblocked (inc Jailed)? Onegu claim's but does not name Hurricane. They are still fishing for Hurricane's role. Alakaslam claims Tracker. Hurricane passively claims NN. I wont go into detail, but it's obvious what their next move is if Hurricane was JK. Not relevant though. Since Hurricane is NN, the scum try to secure their day 2 mis-lynch, and they succeed. The town should all be thinking that they will night kill Hurricane Night 2, because he is confirmed town. But they will not nightkill Hurricane, they will try to nightkill me. Town lynches Onegu on day 3. Onegu flips Framer. The scum make a case against Hurricane based on the fact that Onegu flipped Framer. Afterall, what are the chances that on Night one both the Framer and the tracker targetted Hurricane? If they get the day 4 mislynch on Hurricane then they win. If mafia is sophisticated, this is a great play. I'm guessing they're not this good at the game and that I am not long for this world. But even if I'm the shot instead of someone else, I like this theory. Along these lines (of me not thinking the mafia are this good), I think it may be a crap shoot on who takes the shot tonight, not necessarily hz. If neither me nor hz take the shot tonight, this theory still holds some water. Their plan may just not be as elaborate as hz gives them credit. | ||
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On June 30 2013 10:29 hzflank wrote: Hurricane: If you do not die, why are they risky targeting a Vet over a known NN? Honestly, I don't think they gave disproportionate consideration to there being a Vet. I know I didn't. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
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On June 30 2013 10:46 FirmTofu wrote: As a final disclaimer: We should take the reads of whoever dies tonight into special consideration. The mafia actively chose to kill someone because they knew that that person would probably push for a lynch against one of their teammates. For example, if I die, you need to strongly consider lynching Spicy. If Hurricane dies, we should revisit Aquanim's case and consider lynching him. etc. This is actually why I was so clear about my 3-man team. I wanted to make it obvious. If I live, I can only explain it as me being off course. My most likely mis-read? Aquanim. Tonight was all about pressure, and taking the bullet for information. If Aquanim is scum, he is by far the best player on his team. Hopefully, my pressure overrode his objectivity and led to a shot of self-preservation. Honestly, I haven't even read what Aqua has posted in response to my rather ham-fisted burial attempt earlier. Night 2 was all about setting a tone, and I wanted my specific tone to be 'Lynch Scum Aqua'. Whatever information we can glean from that is up for debate, but it was worth a shot. (Puns are a personal weakness, forgive me.) | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
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Hurricane Sponge
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On June 30 2013 11:19 hzflank wrote: Does anyone else think that a shorter day 3 would be better, if the mods allow it? It sets a bad precedent. I know I wouldn't appreciate it if I were scum. They're going to want (and deserve) a fair shot at trying to turn this game around. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
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On June 30 2013 11:27 hzflank wrote: I agree that it was a bad idea. But..turn this game around? We have lost 2 green and 2 blues, we have 1 confirmed red but they get another chance for NK after we lynch him. The scum are winning by a very large margin. We have the reads we need to win this thing. Even if we assume they flawlessly NK, it will take a town mis-play for them to win this game. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
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On June 30 2013 11:59 Onegu wrote: Just a thought you guys are in lylo now anyway so what does killing me acomplish today other than giving another NK out? Just stop. We're not letting you linger around for a million reasons, not the least of which is getting you out of mafia chat. Please stop insulting our intelligence. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
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On July 01 2013 00:48 hzflank wrote: Thanks. We have plenty of time We have over 48 hours until I need to get my final thoughts in, so there is no rush. I really wish everyone would take a hard look at how people voted day 2 The important thing is the timing of votes in relation to other people's votes. I see it, too. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
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Hurricane Sponge
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Hurricane Sponge
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Hurricane Sponge
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My two mafia reads are LoneMeow and Spicy. Obviously StiM needs to be vetted thoroughly, but that requires the luxury of time which I do not have. My read based on his reactions and the conclusions he is haphazardly drawing leads me to believe he is town. Spicy's night 2 - day 3 - night 3 posting has done nothing to change my opinion of him. You'll note that I went hard after Aqua during night 2, and not Spicy. (In fact, I even offered up some bogus logic that Spicy would magically be confirmed Town in my eyes if I survived the Night.) This was done as a tandem effort with FirmTofu. Tofu had established himself as the most likely candidate to put pressure on Spicy, and I would be the public face of pressure on Aqua. Whoever died, it gives the town information. I lived, which helps exonerate Aqua. I'd recommend for the remaining townie (probably StiM, but there's a slight chance it could be Spicy or LoneMeow) to follow the lead of Aqua and HZ. If the town splits votes, we lose. There will be plenty of time to diagnose sinister Day 4 mafia tactics later. For now, you three are a unit, and it is up to you to either prove me right, or solve this game. Barring StiM really stepping in it later today, I expect to see a LoneMeow or Spicy lynch. I'll leave the decision as to whether you want to lynch the riskier pick so we can get this game over with, or draw it out for more information up to you. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
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Right, sorry. LoneMeow suspects hz. I have NO idea where that would come from if you were playing this game from a Town perspective. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
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(Fun game, guys. Very entertaining for the obs as well, I hear.) | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
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Spicy: "hz should probably die, but tofu is a very loud and active townie. Him dying would push votes to me. We need to focus on getting an aqua mislynch and to a lesser extent, a stim. Hurricane is throwing a lot of shit at aqua so we may want to keep him around. And the more i think of it i think tofu may be a better nk as i can just claim scum killed him to throw more suspicion on me. " Onegu: "We have to keep stim alive no matter what, aqua should be kept alive also as he is a possible suspect , hurricane Hz and Firm are our best possible targets, Of those i think hz os pur best target killing firm points to one of us and hurricane is makeing a case on aqua, so i think hz is our best option " Love it when a plan comes together. Played like a fiddle, fellows. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
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On July 06 2013 05:47 Spicydinosaur wrote: Disagree on orchestrating the entire game. Ace was great when we hit a wall and were all "i dont know what to do here" and gave us good advice and help. Yeah, if he was coaching me, I'd defend him too. Felt like playing vs. 4 mafia, reading all the unsolicited advice and strategy he was giving you guys... | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
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On July 06 2013 05:58 VisceraEyes wrote: Don't hate just because you didn't make full use of your coaches. Scum coaches are different from town coaches in that they have all the information just like the scumteam does - so coaching scum is less about trying to help newbies without slipping information about others and more about general strategy/advice. Having read most of the ScumQT I don't think anything Ace did was out of line. He was certainly more active as a coach than I usually am, but I don't think he "orchestrated the game" by any stretch. I specifically asked for Onegu's reason for Watching a scum read several times, and he was struggling to come up with the only town-side reason for doing so: On June 28 2013 09:52 Hurricane Sponge wrote: I want Onegu's REASONS for deciding to Watch alakaslam last night as well. Friendly reminder so no one speculates on this topic publicly. On June 28 2013 17:46 Hurricane Sponge wrote: This is not the reasoning I was looking for from Onegu to 'Watch' Alakaslam. I don't think I'm going out on a limb by saying that generally, most good Watchers would try to Watch a likely mafiakill target, to try to catch the person delivering KP. By stating he thought Alakaslam was scum, that obviously wasn't his intention. There is one good reason for a Town Watcher Onegu to target Alakaslam (if anyone knows it, do not say it. It is meaningless unless it comes from him), but if Onegu can't come up with it by the deadline, he's likely either a Mafia Tracker or Mafia Framer. I'm still working on scenarios for our current dilemma, but my Town/Town scenario relies on some outstanding questions I've issued to the moderators. On June 28 2013 18:22 Hurricane Sponge wrote: As it's important to say everything right now, I figured I'll throw these key points out there: IN GENERAL: Tracking Scum makes sense (track the guy you think may take the shot) Watching Townies (NK targets) makes sense (watch the victim and you get the killer's name) Tracking Townies doesn't make sense (as a townie. It obviously makes sense as scum) Watching scum makes sense IN ONE VERY SPECIFIC CIRCUMSTANCE If our Watcher cannot give us this reason, he obviously did not do it for that reason. And thus, in this instance, his Watch target did not make sense. Alakaslam is claiming to be a Town Tracker. He 'tracked' a scum read. According to the above, this makes sense. Onegu is claiming to be a Town Watcher. He 'watched' a scum read. According to the above, this does not make sense. Even if the two claims weren't incompatible, the play motivation must be considered like this. Regarding the Watcher target: This in a vacuum could be explained by Bad Play, but in conjunction with reports from a Tracker claiming otherwise, it paints a significantly more sinister picture. No one is disputing that Onegu acquired knowledge last night. By some means, he deduced something that likely happened. However, it is not just a Watcher that could have figured that out. Indeed, it is actually MORE LIKELY in this scenario for a Mafia Tracker or a Mafia Framer to figure it out! A mafia Tracker could choose to 'track' a high-profile townie for various reasons A mafia Framer would CERTAINLY choose to follow THE MOST HIGH PROFILE TOWNIE NOT BEING SHOT THAT NIGHT. (If you don't know why, we need to get you back to Mafia School. At the time actions were declared, the Parity Cop was alive. Mafia know that the Cop will check his scummiest read vs. his towniest read. The framer's play is to figure out who is most everyone's towniest read, barring the person who is getting shot that night, and pay them a visit, essentially flipping their alignment and throwing the Parity Cop off course.) Both of these situations could explain how Onegu acquired the knowledge he did, and neither situation conflicts with Alakaslam's story. From the flipside, to claim that 'Slam is lying and scum, while Onegu is Town and a Watcher: Our town Watcher picked scum to watch for the night (sub-optimal use of the power, when there was a very clear target on the board) The Scum Tracker ('slam) tracked a townie who was under significant pressure and likely to be next-day lynched (Onegu) I know assuming optimal play is folly in a newbie game, but I'd like to assume my teammates and opponents aren't this terrible at this. Unless Onegu is a second Town Tracker and randomly lied by saying he's a Watcher, or came up with the luckiest guess in the history of lucky guesses to start today, there is no situation I can think of currently that Onegu is not scum. ------------- IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT FOR PEOPLE TO CORRECT ME IF ANY OF THE ABOVE LOGIC IS WRONG. THESE ARE THE ASSUMPTIONS MY DECISIONS ARE BASED ON, AND IF I AM TO RE-EVALUATE WITH NEW INFORMATION IT WILL TAKE TIME He would have been lynched that day if not for their coach posting this in their QT to bail them out: Sigma Devil: "reveal that in the thread you watched Alakaslam and he was visited by Hurricane then when you have time. Read everything before you respond. If you need help ask your team before you take action. ETA: actually the claim on its own is bad. Hurricane's post sums it up: Watchers want to target their Town reads, Trackers Scum reads. If you had Ala as a Scum read you dont have many logical reasons for Watching him. I thought you claimed to Track him but that was my mistake for speed reading. I'll try to think about a reason you would need to watch Alakaslam as a Town read, and the best I can come up with is you thought he would be framed by his Scum team thinking he would be an investigation target based on Day 1 (Parity Cop). Either way this is a great learning experience as you can now figure out how to argue from bad position. Go for it ETA: I'll be around for the next hour or so on and off. Ask me anything you need clarification for before posting." Then Onegu parroted the answer to the live thread: On June 28 2013 19:07 Onegu wrote: Sorry I am back, the reason I watched alakaslam was because I had a scum read on him and thought I could confirm it and catch another scum player by who visited him as they would most likely be there to frame him. I tried to think of who would be killed but when I couldnt come up with someone before I slept I went with my next best course of action wich was to try and catch two scum. Also did you confirm you visited alakaslam Hurricane? I am reading amd it looks like you did confirm. I watched Alakaslam and he was visited by my biggest town read in Hurricane. Sorry if I sound bitter. Just pointing out the direct and tangible impact the mafia coach had on the Day 2 lynch. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
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On July 06 2013 06:03 Xzavier wrote: I learned that i need to work on analyzing alot better. all of my scumhunting is basically OMGUS and make a case on him T.T still pretty fun. been carried twice :D Your analysis and META META META were invaluable to me this game. You solidified Tofu as Town after your death because your town reads are awesome, and since you suck at scumhunting, I got to cross a bunch of people that you thought were Mafia off my list! (Just kidding, love you Xzavier. <3) | ||
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On July 06 2013 06:37 Spicydinosaur wrote: I wouldnt think so. If you are active and scum hunting (or good at faking it) then you'll look town. What would someone say.... that your meta is you're a lurker in 2 newbie games... not a lynchable argument. I wouldnt worry too much unless you think you wont be active because of RL. Then just tell everyone pre-game before alignment goes out so it wont be an issue. That would be the greatest scumplay in the history of mankind. "He's too pro-town to be town. Lynch him." | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
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On July 06 2013 12:22 Aquanim wrote: Now if only either of us had retained those reads at the end of Night 1... My early poke was on Spicy (and Xzavier) too. I remember we pondered the fact that he was so crazy defensive early. @StiM: I took the leap of faith on you being town when you said this: On June 29 2013 11:09 StiMaDDict wrote: And btw.. God damn it. Onegu was mafia last game. This ain't fair  I know it's not much, but for some reason, I just felt like someone who was in scum chat all game wouldn't say something like this. | ||
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