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On June 30 2013 00:33 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2013 00:25 Aquanim wrote:
@LoneMeow and StiMaDDict: I think it would be a good idea for both of you to tell us who your main suspect is as well. This is what we need to see next. @LoneMeow and StiM You both need to make a case for ONE top scum read and convince us that he is mafia. You may give us what you think the rest of the mafia team is, but the necessary input is a good case on one read.
StiM's been here but I don't know if he saw this.
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On July 01 2013 07:22 StiMaDDict wrote:
I don't think shortening the day is a great idea but I'll consent to the majority.
Well, if we'd agreed to shorten the day it would have ended three minutes ago...
Also, what's the point in having a longer day if you're not going to say anything either way?
Your best scumread, StiMaDDict. Please?
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I'm around, I just haven't had anything new to say. StiM didn't really give us anything concrete and I'm not sure what to make of LoneMeow's case on hzflank.
I'd like to know who else LoneMeow thinks is scum.
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On June 29 2013 21:42 Spicydinosaur wrote:
@everyone, please look at the relationships between everyone, not just the individual filters.
Quick FYI: i will be traveling for the next couple of days so i will be posting from my phone.
On June 30 2013 00:56 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Case on stim.
d1 he picks aqua as a target and votes him at the very end not really affecting the vote. he blows up aquas position on nn policy and r a ils on him for the xzavier vote. What I see here is a scum on scum vote meqnt to be used later for cred in the event aqua dies. D2 stim disappears again till qn hour before the vote and claims ignorance of the situation. He fake buys his time asking questions and seeing the votes. Knowing that slam will be killed regardless of the vot3, he votes against it for town cred. Also he is actually active in the post lynch talk.... but why? Because scum only need 1 misslynch to win so hes trying hard now to get there.
On June 30 2013 01:02 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Also forgot to add something. He had a scum read on aqua d1...and then aqua has a huge post on slam is most likely scum which led to a misslynch... but he now only has a null read?? Doesnt make sense except that hes protecting him or at least not throwing him under the bus yet.
Spicy, your entire read on me (and for that matter StiM) appears to be based on relationships (and mostly speculative between the two of us rather than to the confirmed scum Onegu), rather than individual filters. I appreciate that there isn't a whole lot in StiM's filter to go off, but FirmTofu had a strong town read on me based on my play viewed individually.
If you think I'm scum, what in FirmTofu's analysis (link) do you disagree with?
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On July 02 2013 18:00 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2013 17:43 LoneMeow wrote:On July 02 2013 11:31 Aquanim wrote:
I'm around, I just haven't had anything new to say. StiM didn't really give us anything concrete and I'm not sure what to make of LoneMeow's case on hzflank.
I'd like to know who else LoneMeow thinks is scum. Analyzing the associations between players: Hurricane - good as confirmed town based on Onegu's flip Aquanim - not likely Stim - possible SpicyDinosaur - possible, even likely? So I'd say probably SpicyDinosaur, possibly Stim. @Aqua, what do you think of this post by LoneMeow?
Well, it hasn't explained as much of what he's thinking as I'd like.
@LoneMeow: Could you justify your reads from this post some more?
These reads basically align with mine - I would say Hurricane is as good as confirmed town, Stim is possible scum and Spicy is likely. A little curious that he's chosen to base it on "associations betweeen players" seeing as how Spicy (at least) is calling me scum (rather than 'not likely') based entirely on association...
A question we have to ask ourselves is:
What is the plan of scum likely to be at the moment?
I see three options:
- try to secure a day 4 mislynch (in which case they will both try to lynch a townie, not necessarily the same one)
- bus each other for towncred to win at day 5 (in which case they will try to lynch each other)
- have it both ways - one busses, the other pushes a mislynch
Of the three I think the third is perhaps more likely (covering both bases might feel safer than going all-in one way or the other), but all three are viable possibilities. This makes it difficult to analyse reads given at this point in the game - scum could have reasons to push the lynch of basically anybody.
As such, I think this post by LoneMeow, and the reads he's given here, aren't particularly useful to me in terms of determining his alignment - especially seeing as he hasn't given any reasoning behind them. Unjustified reads given at LYLO are WIFOM hell.
The thing which bothers me about LoneMeow's case on you (hzflank) as a scum move is that I don't see how scum could reasonably expect to lynch you at this point... and furthermore, they don't have to. Scum only need one mislynch to win and there's plenty of easier lynchbait. It does have the advantage that he hasn't had to say anything much about the more likely lynches, though.
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Something interesting I'll point out about the day one lynch - if Spicy and StiM are the remaining scum the final votecount would look like this:
Xzavier (7): LoneMeow, Chromatically, Aquanim, FirmTofu, Hurricane Sponge, hzflank, Alakaslam
Aquanim (2): Xzavier, StiMaDDict
Alakaslam (1): Onegu
Hurricane Sponge (1): Spicydinosaur
That's right, nobody on the Xzavier wagon. While scum generally don't want to draw attention to themselves by driving a wagon on a townie, there's also security in numbers - voting for someone all out on your lonesome also draws attention to you and I doubt they'd be comfortable with none of the scumteam hiding among the large proportion of players on the Xzavier wagon.
This doesn't make a Spicy/StiM team impossible but I think it's less likely.
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On July 02 2013 20:19 hzflank wrote:
@Aqua
Considering the bad position that the town is in, can you explain to me the benefit of even looking at the game as though there is a reasonable chance of Stim being scum?
If he is scum I'd prefer to work it out (somehow) and lynch him.
If he isn't I'd like to find whatever can convince me of that, for my peace of mind if nothing else.
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On July 02 2013 23:27 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2013 23:24 Spicydinosaur wrote:On July 02 2013 23:06 hzflank wrote:This paragraph deserves to be quoted again. On July 02 2013 19:57 Aquanim wrote:
The thing which bothers me about LoneMeow's case on you (hzflank) as a scum move is that I don't see how scum could reasonably expect to lynch you at this point... and furthermore, they don't have to. Scum only need one mislynch to win and there's plenty of easier lynchbait. It does have the advantage that he hasn't had to say anything much about the more likely lynches, though. How can Lone's case on me possibly be a town move? Even if he actually thinks I am scum then he should of planned to lynch me on day 5. If I am scum, how does a town Lone expect to lynch me day 4? I do not think that a town Lone could possibly of made that move. On July 02 2013 22:46 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Just from reading the above i dont see a lone/aqua team
Maybe I am tunnelling too much, but I know Hurricane (confirmed town) thinks that the scum team is Aqua/Lone. I am confident that Firm (confirmed town) thinks that Spicy/Lone is the scum team. I think that either Aqua/Lone or Spicy/Lone is the scum team, and I have made this clear enough recently (even before Lone's case). I am genuinely surprised that Spicy does not think that Aqua/Lone is the scum team. Its the voting on d2 that doesnt make me think aqua/lone team. Lone completely sheeps aqua on the slam vote and once slam flipped, both would look extremely bad. The more likely scenario is one of them was scum and other is town that just piggybacked. I really liked the aqua/stim team over the weekend, but lone's case makes 0 sense to me as it feels like he is just posted on a townie so he doesnt have to make a case on his scum buddy. Im still liking stim as a lynch because of his late d2 posts but lone is seriously making me wonder what he is doing. Do you realize that to beat a Lone/Stim we have to lynch Stim on day 4? If we lynch Lone then day 5 is Aqua, Spicy and Stim. Do you think Stim will get lynched in that scenario?
Look, if you think Stim is scum make an argument for it and I'll listen. I'm not so tunneled on Spicy that I won't listen to reason.
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Nothing much has changed in terms of my reads. Spicy's posted some analysis, but nothing that I think scum couldn't come up with - nothing that's unbelievable from a townie, either, as far as I can see. It's a little suggestive that he thinks I'm more likely to be scum with StiM than Lone - one could easily construe my 'flip' on LoneMeow as a bus of necessity, whereas my and StiM's votes for one another wouldn't even be a bus of convenience.
Spicy's reasons for saying I'm not scum with LoneMeow are reasonable enough, though hardly enough to be as certain as he is IMO. I feel that in the association case with StiM (link) he's trying to twist the facts to make them suit his read, rather than the other way around. StiM had no previous posting history, he could have voted anyone - I don't see any reason for him to vote his scumbuddy and push his wagon again just when it was starting to die.
LoneMeow still hasn't really given us much of anything and StiM, as you say, appears not to be reading the thread thoroughly... which makes it hard to read him.
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On July 03 2013 10:55 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Spicy's suspicion of hz comes from a weird place. Nothing about his thought process screams 'Town' to me, and it does smell a lot like scum trying to scumhunt.
Spicy suspects hz? Do you mean LoneMeow?
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On July 03 2013 10:57 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Also, in my opinion, LoneMeow is the 'safe' lynch. It's a policy lynch, sure. But there's a real case there, and it won't get you yelled at in Post-game.
I agree with this up to a point... but the concept of 3-man LYLO with Spicy and StiM scares me a lot.
If we decide to lynch into LoneMeow today, whoever dies tomorrow night had better leave StiM some very specific instructions.
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GG Hurricane, it's been fun.
@hzflank, I'm pretty sure I have a better townread on you than you do on me so I'm willing to let you call the shots. Of Spicy and LoneMeow, I think LoneMeow is probably the safer lynch as far as today goes - but I think it might be easier to get StiM on-side to lynch Spicy while you're still alive.
If you're scum you've outplayed me and if StiM's scum I guess I'll just be pissed off.
Although I just had a nasty thought...
- StiM thought that Onegu was a tracker
- Onegu was in fact a (scum) tracker
Do you think that could have been a scumslip?
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On July 03 2013 11:21 Aquanim wrote:
Although I just had a nasty thought...
- StiM thought that Onegu was a tracker
- Onegu was in fact a (scum) tracker
Do you think that could have been a scumslip?
meh I reread this and I think the answer's no. If StiM missed the part where Onegu actually claimed watcher (which was a pretty small post IIRC and didn't make a humongous splash until Alakaslam's claim) his position makes sense... kinda.
I don't like the whole business much but, then again, that's nothing new.
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I can go with that.
##Vote: Spicydinosaur
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On July 03 2013 23:53 Spicydinosaur wrote:
....
I also dont see how night kills exonerates aqua in any way what so ever. Killing tofu just put more pressure on me which is exactly what scum wanted.
We have a whole day and everyone is just playing into aqua's hands. Please dont let the night kill order be so persuasive that it clouds aqua's scummy filter.
As most others think stim is town im voting for my second scum pick of aqua.
##vote Aquanim
I don't really think there's anything to say to this, other than that I don't have a scummy filter [source: 3 NK'd townies and my own appraisal].
Besides that I don't see a case to argue against here.
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GG to y'all. Day 2 was not my best moment as a townie >.< but I guess it worked out in the end. I doubt I'll have time to play another for a while, but I'll be lurking around.
TIL: Messing around on the edge of being mislynched from start to finish of a game is bad for one's nerves 
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Having only two mislynches instead of three, with no possibility of getting more through a veteran or JK, felt like a little steeper odds than the usual 13p setup. Then again, Parity Cop would have been powerful if he hadn't been nightkilled N1 (GG to Chromatically, by the way, I think I forgot that at the time.) I don't include Tracker because I think we got our money's worth from that role, even if we lynched him first 
Still balanced but Town has less room for error.
My condensed analysis of this game would be that once myself and StiM became townreads there were simply too many "unlynchable" townies for scum to win. Fundamentally scum needed three mislynches, and they just weren't in the game to be had at that point. There just wasn't anything to discuss from day 4 onwards.
In particular, in terms of my analysis Spicy played a decent game but sheer process of elimination left him as the only possible scum.
On July 06 2013 06:51 StiMaDDict wrote:
If I get to be scum, would it be a good play? Afterall, I didn't get lybched in either of my first two games.
Meh... at least as far as I'm concerned, the reason I didn't want to lynch you was some towntells you dropped (which you wouldn't have done as scum). If you were scum and played a lurky style of the same magnitude I think you'd quite likely get lynched.
If you play a little more active town will be so thankful they'll let you get away with murder (literally).
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On July 06 2013 11:50 StiMaDDict wrote:
@Aquanim
What exactly did people see in me that made them think I was town? It's my play but even I'm not so sure XD
Only thing I can think of is when asked questions and voted Onegu at the end of Day2.
IIRC it was your confusion about the ramifications of Alakaslam and Onegu's fakeclaims. I figured a scum would have a better idea of what was going on from reading the scum QT. It's hardly the kind of thing that I like to base a townread on since I think it could possibly be faked, but under the circumstances...
Your posts in day 4 also read as very town to me.
On July 06 2013 11:35 geript wrote:
The goal of this setup that WoS, Cora and myself had discussed was to have an investigation heavy setup. My goal was that 3 mislynches would mean scum wins, which feels fine to me. I think most of the actions taken were quite good.
Like I said, I think the setup was balanced - just a different dynamic to most of the recent newbies that I've seen, which appears to have been your intention. Thanks to you guys for hosting this game, I enjoyed myself and I think you did a good job (even if there was a hiccup or two )
+ Show Spoiler [my shameful hosting story] +The first time I hosted a Mafia game IRL I modconfirmed a cop and broke the game... particularly sad since the two remaining scum were the towniest-looking players by far and had the game on lockdown The third scum had been nightkilled (by scum) night 1 since he didn't look up during the night and I was too stunned by their choice to fix it :/ At least the game was hilarious, everyone wanted to play another after that
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On July 06 2013 12:10 Chromatically wrote:
On June 25 2013 15:49 Aquanim wrote:
...There could well be scum in this group but I'm not nearly as confident about any one of them as I am about you and Onegu.
Now if only either of us had retained those reads at the end of Night 1...
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EPT
