|
On June 28 2013 09:17 FirmTofu wrote:
@Hurricane
Are you not even willing to consider that Onegu may have lied about his claim? Are we just going to throw away all of the scum reads that we have built up over the course of the thread because of one claim that hasn't even been verified?
I still don't see how this claim exonerates Onegu from a lynch when any scum could have easily pulled it off.
First off, if you really are determined to spend your time on this, look through my filter and try to determine my actual level of suspicion on Onegu. Second, for now, I'd recommend clearing your head in regards to the Onegu claim's legitimacy. You seem to be coming from a very limited point of reference. I don't want to spell it out for you (and I won't), but if you are going to choose to devote daylight to this issue, go back and read the role descriptions in the OP.
|
I've decided to leak one facet of my thought process regarding Onegu's claim. This is not the entirety of my reasoning, nor even a majority. In fact, it was quite ancillary to my thought process. But hopefully it resonates for you.
The mafia have a sizable lead over us. They are not desperate at all right now. They've secured a mislynch, gotten lucky with a modkill, and sniped our Parity Cop. There is no reason for them to take insane risks right now.
If Onegu were to make a false claim right now while under significant suspicion by two high-profile members of the town, it would be the worst play in the history of this game. His team is way up, and it's not like he needed a Hail Mary to save himself. The votes were stagnating on him. Making a claim gets the attention of the room (regardless of whether he's scum or town), and for someone in this position early Day Two (with plenty of time left for discovery on his claim), it's a stupid scum play. Furthermore, I can see a tired townie wanting to disclose information like this before they have to go to bed to give the Town as much information as possible while I'm away. Do you think scum would make this claim and go AFK without the ability to defend himself for 8 hours?
Opening himself up for a counter-claim at this point is such a horrible Risk / Reward play, its staggering. Even if he didn't get counter-claimed, there's a significant chance we'd have enough time to be able to gather enough evidence to prove he was lying (given that we still have a lot of blue town roles unaccounted for), and he'd be in the spotlight. (Yes, I know you think he's in the spotlight already. He really wasn't.)
Onegu is not a bad player at this game. I went through his entire XLII and XLIII filters this afternoon. These aren't the plays I think he'd make.
Like I said, this isn't the primary reason I'm inclined to believe his claim, but it's a point worth raising.
|
EBWOP: If anyone out there is in a position to counter-claim, please do so as soon as possible. I'm not saying it's impossible that Onegu is lying. I'm saying it would be incredibly dumb of him to lie. This assertion relies on the honesty are threat-recognition of my teammates.
|
I want Onegu's REASONS for deciding to Watch alakaslam last night as well. Friendly reminder so no one speculates on this topic publicly.
|
Until Alakaslam enters the thread, our time would be better spent discussing other scumreads (if for nothing else, than to get our heads a little cooler on the claim issue).
LoneMeow has put a vote on Alakaslam, and has been pretty stingy with his reads. Chromatically raised an excellent point in his pre-NK post that LM has been very clever about following thread sentiment without raising any attention.
1. Doesn't want to make waves
2. Lurks hardcore
3. Accuses others of not contributing
The next original thought I hear out of LoneMeow will be the first. Put your cards on the table, LM. What are your scum reads?
|
On June 28 2013 09:46 Aquanim wrote:
Onegu should claim NOTHING more until Alakaslam tells us whether he was roleblocked or not.
I hope you know where you're going with this, because I don't...
|
On June 28 2013 10:01 Spicydinosaur wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2013 09:57 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Until Alakaslam enters the thread, our time would be better spent discussing other scumreads (if for nothing else, than to get our heads a little cooler on the claim issue).
LoneMeow has put a vote on Alakaslam, and has been pretty stingy with his reads. Chromatically raised an excellent point in his pre-NK post that LM has been very clever about following thread sentiment without raising any attention.
1. Doesn't want to make waves
2. Lurks hardcore
3. Accuses others of not contributing
The next original thought I hear out of LoneMeow will be the first. Put your cards on the table, LM. What are your scum reads? He has been flying under the radar. Though the alakslam vote seems different, wouldn't it be easier to just sheep onto the onegu vote? Either way, needs more posting than 1 person per round.
I seem to be the only one defending Alakaslam. At this point, I'm willing to consider that my read is wrong. Reading through his filter, I just seem to get the over-eager vibe from a guy who's really new to (and maybe not suited for) this game. I'm not in the business of defending people when they should be defending themselves, but I honestly don't think he has the ability to capably defend himself. His first reaction when pressured was to throw in the towel and martyr'd hard:
On June 25 2013 21:49 Alakaslam wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 18:48 Onegu wrote:
I believe this is his first game of mafia ever irl or forum and he got scum read over some old games and didnt really know what to do so he tried to look active by posting but didnt actually post anything useful. I think he is scum but to be honest doesnt he doesnt know what he is doing. This is half true. I was terrified of being lynched, scum fall prey to that but there are other roles that have this affect on newbs. There is nothing I can do and I saw this coming soon a my quote included "make it clean like this guys" and it was the absolute worst looking post in the thread after having posted just to show that I was no lurker. I also played selfishly (as you'll see on flip) rather than from a town mindset. I started to seek survival and that is scummy and I know it too, is the sad thing. Just didn't put 2 &2 together, did not expect to wind up feeling like I was all survivalist as town :p I'm really sorry I couldn't put anything useful down before my likely exit, but this is my last ditch effort: Allow me to last the night. I still can't do much but I am a broken sheep, so looks like I'll go independent. Scum reads? Finally got one: Aquanim. Haven't read filters, haven't got a case, just want to contribute a skimmer's gut feeling before possible drasticness. Take it or leave it, especially as I must sleep as checkout is 1 pm and I checked In at a defeated 4:30. Fail at job, fail here but there is always another game  and the farm will irrigate again in a week or less. Ps: actually I have done table mafia but that is very different, I suck at that because I have AS. I thought I'd have a chance here, and still think so- just decided to go nuts in terror despite some awesome coaching to the contrary :D :S Great learning experience! The greats do what they do with skill. A silver leaguer trying to sentry expand may often find it countered by mass hydra (olllld WoL meta)- must start with Probes and Pylons, Probes and Pylons. Btw have a surprise final post if I get lynched/ killed XD See y'all around, when I was looking scummy to myself I knew OMGIS, it wassa comin! Good luck my friends, you will need it. DON'T not lynch me just because I had a hard day, if I really look scummy Lynch me dammit! Towns must know how to COMMIT! >: ) ##Vote: Aquanim
Alakaslam, can you clear up this post for me? The bolded phrase in particular.
|
I have issued some questions to Alakaslam. Hopefully he responds to them, and has something to say about the Onegu claim. This is a very important moment in the game for your, Alakaslam. Please try to organize your thoughts and respond to each point with a clear, simple answer. We do not need commentary at this time. Just facts.
|
It's really important to me to know why you chose Alakaslam. I don't know why you want to wait for him to respond, but I don't see the harm in waiting, and will respect your judgement on this matter.
REMINDER: Everyone else, please do not speculate on why Onegu chose Alakaslam as his target.
|
EBWOP: For now, you are 100% correct by not telling us who visited him. There may come a point later when you have to, but for now you should not.
|
What a shit storm. I'm seeing my name throw around a lot. Trying to come up with a scenario where both Onegu and Alakaslam are Town (which is my belief). Can someone save me some time and double-check my work by stating in the simplest way the conflict between Onegu's and Alakaslam's claims?
|
It's 4:15 am here, but Onegu is a Mafia Green Ranger, or possibly a Framer. Why he took this risk is stupid.
I will follow up once I am of my right mind.
|
EBWOP: That was brash, and I'd delete it if I could. I am only halfway through my analysis.
|
I was wrong, like I thought. Stand by. Do not assume anything yet. I may have come up with a way for both Onegu and Alakaslam to be Town.
|
@Alakaslam:
I need you to study your PM that you got from Night. Remember the homework I gave you? Please don't be offended, but I think I established that your reading comprehension sort of falters when you get excited.
I need you to re-read the PM you got from the Mod regarding your night action, and tell me once you're absolutely positive that:
1.) You TRACKED Onegu
2.) Your PM said ONEGU visited ME, or if ONEGU visited YOU, or possibly BOTH
Do not copy-paste your PM here, as that is against the rules. The game hinges on you understanding your PM, and you need to re-check it about ten to fifteen times to make sure we do not lose the game based on faulty information in this moment.
|
On June 28 2013 14:56 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2013 14:40 Alakaslam wrote:On June 28 2013 08:44 FirmTofu wrote:
He is claiming that either Spicy or hzflank is a blue town role that visited Alakaslam last right.
He refuses to say which of the two, but it is very easy to narrow down for any observer. What purpose did it serve to keep town in the dark?
Either hzflank or Spicy needs to confirm what Onegu is saying about them, otherwise an Onegu lynch remains inevitable.
Even if hzflank or Spicy confirm, we have to consider that they may be in a mafia team together. We will need to gather evidence for and against this and analyze it with the information we have at our disposal.
It could also be the case that Onegu is a mafia tracker who tracked a town hzflank or Spicy to Alakaslam's house. We would also have to find evidence to refute this possibility. Wait who visited me? No wait I need to tea his claim again HE watched Hurricane- he visited hurricane, may as well spill the beans now that I am a class A idiot. Quick thing before I walk out the door, I watched you Alakaslam, someone who I have a town read on visited you. I was hopeing to either confirm my suspicions on you or see if you are town by who visited you, I was unable to do so as the person who visited you doesnt confirm anything, except it makes me wonder why he visited you and the only thing I can think of is he thinks you are scum also. This makes me lean scum on you. It in no way clears you.
This is not the reasoning I was looking for from Onegu to 'Watch' Alakaslam. I don't think I'm going out on a limb by saying that generally, most good Watchers would try to Watch a likely mafiakill target, to try to catch the person delivering KP. By stating he thought Alakaslam was scum, that obviously wasn't his intention.
There is one good reason for a Town Watcher Onegu to target Alakaslam (if anyone knows it, do not say it. It is meaningless unless it comes from him), but if Onegu can't come up with it by the deadline, he's likely either a Mafia Tracker or Mafia Framer.
I'm still working on scenarios for our current dilemma, but my Town/Town scenario relies on some outstanding questions I've issued to the moderators.
|
This has become a time-sensitive matter
##Vote: Onegu
|
hz, if you're town, I need you on Onegu as soon as possible (albeit temporarily) so he loses a tiebreak. If there are mafia yet to vote (StiM probably, Spicy probably not) , they're going to be able to force a mislynch
|
I'm 90% sure the two claims are incompatible. The other 10% will be solved when the mods get back to me. Our mods have been awesome, and I'm sure I will have my answer by noon tomorrow (about 7 hours from now).
|
As it's important to say everything right now, I figured I'll throw these key points out there:
IN GENERAL:
Tracking Scum makes sense (track the guy you think may take the shot)
Watching Townies (NK targets) makes sense (watch the victim and you get the killer's name)
Tracking Townies doesn't make sense (as a townie. It obviously makes sense as scum)
Watching scum makes sense IN ONE VERY SPECIFIC CIRCUMSTANCE
If our Watcher cannot give us this reason, he obviously did not do it for that reason. And thus, in this instance, his Watch target did not make sense.
Alakaslam is claiming to be a Town Tracker. He 'tracked' a scum read. According to the above, this makes sense.
Onegu is claiming to be a Town Watcher. He 'watched' a scum read. According to the above, this does not make sense.
Even if the two claims weren't incompatible, the play motivation must be considered like this.
Regarding the Watcher target:
This in a vacuum could be explained by Bad Play, but in conjunction with reports from a Tracker claiming otherwise, it paints a significantly more sinister picture.
No one is disputing that Onegu acquired knowledge last night. By some means, he deduced something that likely happened. However, it is not just a Watcher that could have figured that out. Indeed, it is actually MORE LIKELY in this scenario for a Mafia Tracker or a Mafia Framer to figure it out!
A mafia Tracker could choose to 'track' a high-profile townie for various reasons
A mafia Framer would CERTAINLY choose to follow THE MOST HIGH PROFILE TOWNIE NOT BEING SHOT THAT NIGHT. (If you don't know why, we need to get you back to Mafia School. At the time actions were declared, the Parity Cop was alive. Mafia know that the Cop will check his scummiest read vs. his towniest read. The framer's play is to figure out who is most everyone's towniest read, barring the person who is getting shot that night, and pay them a visit, essentially flipping their alignment and throwing the Parity Cop off course.)
Both of these situations could explain how Onegu acquired the knowledge he did, and neither situation conflicts with Alakaslam's story.
From the flipside, to claim that 'Slam is lying and scum, while Onegu is Town and a Watcher:
Our town Watcher picked scum to watch for the night (sub-optimal use of the power, when there was a very clear target on the board)
The Scum Tracker ('slam) tracked a townie who was under significant pressure and likely to be next-day lynched (Onegu)
I know assuming optimal play is folly in a newbie game, but I'd like to assume my teammates and opponents aren't this terrible at this.
Unless Onegu is a second Town Tracker and randomly lied by saying he's a Watcher, or came up with the luckiest guess in the history of lucky guesses to start today, there is no situation I can think of currently that Onegu is not scum.
-------------
IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT FOR PEOPLE TO CORRECT ME IF ANY OF THE ABOVE LOGIC IS WRONG. THESE ARE THE ASSUMPTIONS MY DECISIONS ARE BASED ON, AND IF I AM TO RE-EVALUATE WITH NEW INFORMATION IT WILL TAKE TIME
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
