|
On June 27 2013 04:03 FirmTofu wrote:
StiM and LoneMeow are going to decide which way the lynch goes because I believe that:
Spicy, Onegu, Alakaslam, and hzflank will vote together no matter what
AND
Chromatically, Hurricane, Aqua, and I will vote together no matter what.
We should work on convincing the two deciding votes at this point. I'm going back to making my defense against Onegu's accusations.
Fortunately, it is also incredibly inaccurate.
|
I think you're wrong, but if you want to direct your posts at two people who have a combined 10 posts in 70+ hours of the game, you're wasting your time. You should be making arguments that make valid cases on legitimate scum reads, not trying to tailor evidence to secure specific votes.
|
On June 27 2013 04:07 Onegu wrote:
Ok well I am going to sleep. Also when you lie once what is to stop you from doing it again it does hurt town and lieing to get your way is scummy. When you say I want this person lynched instead of this person and I will say or do anything for that to happen, that is very scummy.
At the end of the day, everyone's vote is their own responsibility. If Tofu manages to convince people to vote for his target, that is not to be held against him. If anything, you should be mad at me and alakaslam for allowing ourselves to be manipulated by him.
|
On June 27 2013 04:26 Chromatically wrote:
I have some thoughts on lying that I'd like to wait until the resolution period to post, but I'm going to assume that Tofu won't be lying again.
There's no way for town to tell if you're a lying townie or scum who's trying to cover up a mistake.
I will be sorely, sorely tempted to policy lynch you if you lie again.
I didn't think of this. I will be re-evaluating my thoughts on this matter in light of new information.
|
I went for a dive through Xzavier's filter again to see if I could glean anything useful. (It turns out that even KNOWING he's town doesn't help the massive scum read I get from him.) The most content I can bring forward from this journey is the following:
Based on Xzavier's history (Yes, I'm using meta. Yes, it's based off one game. If this sort of thing doesn't interest you, move along.) he was also a Vanilla Townie in last week's TL Newbie Mafia game. His scumhunting skills are horrible. Day One he led a bandwagon on a townie against a Scum wagon. Day Two, he voted for a vanilla townie. Day Three he voted for a townie after unvoting two votes, one for a townie and one for a scum.
Point: Xzavier's opinions on who is Scum in this game are probably not too useful.
For posterity: Xzavier's scum reads in his own words (after I pressured him to get his reads out before he was lynched):
On June 26 2013 03:50 Xzavier wrote:
I dont get why aqua and chrome are voting somebody they know can be a good town.
I havnt made huge cases yet, i havnt had time to. ill be active during night one if im still aliv. I would prefer to delay my lynch until day2. today id like a lynch on alakazam or aqua. idc which. ill probably choose between the two on my break fepending on the situation.
IF I DO GET LYNCHED: everybody take a long hard look at aqua and chrom.
and look at alakazam now
he lurks and one of his few posts was saying im sheeping and doing no scumhunting this game until the guy im sheeping looks scummy. the godfather last game i was in said something almost identical to that. its a pretty big noob scum tell imo. alone it judt warrents serious investifagation.
He goes on to basically admit that his suspicion of Aqua and Chrom are OMGUS:
On June 25 2013 15:29 Xzavier wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 15:16 FirmTofu wrote:
Hey Xzavier, what do you think about Spicy? Would you be willing to switch your vote onto him? Honestly not today. he did a really good jpb as town last game and gave some good insights. After going threw his filter it seems like he was forced into a defensive posting pattern due to pressure. he hasnt said much recently. Honestly i wouldnt mind lynching alakazam day 1. But ill giv him a chance to respond. Im really not liking chrom or auqa for their tunnelling me while ignoring logic and basing everything off of the fact that i havnt caught scum yet or made a case.
However, after reading the Newbie Mafia XLII thread, his vocal town reads were actually pretty solid. Sure, he thought some townies were scum, but the people who he was confident enough to say out loud were town were all correct. I can't find an instance of him thinking a scum was Town (I comed his filter HARD).
Point: Xzavier has a good track record when deciding someone is Town.
For posterity: Xzavier's town read(s) this game (with some bonus OMGUS at the end for flavor):
On June 26 2013 09:07 Xzavier wrote:
Unfortunately. im going to dissapoint you by flipping green.
I will say this:
i firmly believe firmtofu is town. :D
no really iv gotten that vibe. not all that strong.
HZ flank also stfikes me as town. or hes playing the riskiest scum gambet. but all he would be gaining is a little towncred. so in pretty confident hes town.
Heres list of people to look ibto: lonemeow. aqua. alakazam. Chromatically.
Because they hav tunneled me and ignored logic and focused on tgeir silly probably purposely bad logic.
Like it or not, Xzavier is still a townie. Keep his voice in mind if you're on the fence about someone or need extra input. Remember that HE IS STILL TOWN and can still win this game. I didn't see anyone going over Xzavier's filter (or fyfy's filter) so this analysis needed to be posted and deserves your consideration.
|
On June 27 2013 04:48 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2013 04:34 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On June 27 2013 04:26 Chromatically wrote:
I have some thoughts on lying that I'd like to wait until the resolution period to post, but I'm going to assume that Tofu won't be lying again.
There's no way for town to tell if you're a lying townie or scum who's trying to cover up a mistake.
I will be sorely, sorely tempted to policy lynch you if you lie again. I didn't think of this. I will be re-evaluating my thoughts on this matter in light of new information. I think the distinguishing factor is intent. What intention would a scum Tofu have to save Aquanim? The only possible scenario I see is if Aqua and I are both scum and I was desperately trying to get the vote off him by lying. If you adhere to that belief, you have a case against me. But otherwise, I don't think you can hold it against me. In the context of my lie, aqua and I being different alignments is incompatible.
Relax. No more defense. It's night time, let's see some offense. Make a list of your scum reads (privately) and start chasing down your second and third options. Really vet them. And start making gameplans (again, privately) and courses of action you'd like to pursue for different NK scenarios.
|
Reposting this, as the original got Format-screwed. If you haven't read my take on the relevant 'fyfy' posts during his brief stay with us, I recommend you glance through the spoiler.
+ Show Spoiler +As we all now know, fyfy flipped Town. Keep in mind the context that scum would know who was town at this juncture. I'm going to build a profile on fyfy for everyone: First action involving fyfy was a vote by Tofu: On June 24 2013 16:53 FirmTofu wrote:
As I am about to go to bed, I would like to go ahead and
##Vote: fyfy
because he is the only person who hasn't spoken yet. Keep your eye on Stim and Meow as well because they are lurking, especially Stim. Interestingly, Onegu (unprompted) came to his defense with a very logical argument: On June 24 2013 16:59 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 16:53 FirmTofu wrote:
As I am about to go to bed, I would like to go ahead and
##Vote: fyfy
because he is the only person who hasn't spoken yet. Keep your eye on Stim and Meow as well because they are lurking, especially Stim. It is better to vote for lurkers who have posted one time and stopped then to vote for someone who hasnt posted anything because they will most likely get replaced or modkilled. Spicy then enters the conversation after a defense of Chromatically as town with a defense of fyfy and a counter-poke on Tofu that reads more like an attack on StiM: On June 24 2013 21:49 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Lastly his vote on fyfy has been bugging me. It is clearly a pressure vote to get him active but why target fyfy over stim? Stim actually posted at the beginning of the day right after the day post, then dissipated. He was there reading the thread but not actively posting. This seems scummier than fyfy at the moment.
After a while, Tofu drops his poke vote on fyfy: On June 25 2013 02:38 FirmTofu wrote:
Wrong format sorry. ##unvote: fyfy After a brief defense by Tofu from Spicy on the matter, fyfy chimes in: On June 25 2013 04:10 fyfy wrote:
Hi guys, for what it's worth I believe FirmTofu to either be an overzealous townie or scum. By checking through some of his posts in his previous games it appears that he is indeed kinda overzealous about things as town, not too sure about scum though. Apparently in one of his games he shot another town he believed to be mafia so I'm not too sure where this places him.
For now, I'd rather we lynch someone scummier. Tofu then links Spicy and fyfy: On June 25 2013 05:56 FirmTofu wrote:
Another issue that may be useful later is his subtle defense of fyfy that worked wonders to nail me as an idiot for having voted him. Everyone fell for it, but for the time being, I have linked Spicy and fyfy as possible teammates.
Whether it be arrogance or a scum-tell, Spicy is definitely a suspicious individual that needs to be looked into.
##Vote: SpicyDinosaur Spicy and Tofu then get in some crazy off-the-rails argument where they refute each other point by point without actually going anywhere. (Spicy has to actually bring up Hitler to finally kill the argument) There's a bit of time that passes where fyfy is solicited for a vote, so he offers: On June 25 2013 15:48 fyfy wrote:
I'm getting the read now that Aquanim is more scum than Xzavier as Aqua seems to be extremely defensive and I maintain my belief that Xzavier just types like a scum. Reading through the discussion, I am under the belief that Aquanim is scum.
##Vote: Aquanim Aquanim then damns us with faint praise: On June 25 2013 15:49 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 15:37 Xzavier wrote:
But i really dont need to right now lol. I was in the middle of making a case against you when i had to get off the pc. so i posted the little i had. you cant make a case on a phone. sorrym and im not the only one guilty of not pressuring people. hellvim one of the seven who has casted a vote and given a reason why. So why arnt you going after the lurkers who havnt even voted yet by this logic? - LoneMeow's two posts feel more constructive than the entirety of your filter - StiMaDDict is a coinflip - I feel like fyfy, Hurricane Sponge and Alakaslam are at least trying, even if they are not being very effective so far. There could well be scum in this group but I'm not nearly as confident about any one of them as I am about you and Onegu. Voting in as of itself is not scumhunting. You aren't trying to gain information by voting me and your case is pretty bad, which doesn't really leave any possible towny motivation for your vote. fyfy gives his reasoning (a gut feel, apparently): On June 25 2013 15:58 fyfy wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 14:44 Aquanim wrote:On June 25 2013 14:32 Onegu wrote:On June 25 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote:
Him saying the bolded part really bothers me, it is a failsafe for him to later say his gut lead him to make votes without having to make cases behind it
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=381931¤tpage=18#344http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=386911¤tpage=53#1045Mate, are you in any way familiar with my meta? If I lead a wagon with serious intent to lynch somebody there WILL be a case.
The other big thing about him is he kept the NN thing going way to long almost half his posts deal with the NN, when it is a bad idea, what if the NN claims day one but scum counterclaims day 4 we still dont know who is who it only give scum an advantage and for him to harp on it over and over is scummy to me.
STILL this? 1) A difference of opinions on policy is not scum-indicative 2) If I knew that the NN claiming was obviously scum-favoured and that I had no chance to make it happen, why would I suggest it as town or scum? It would make me look bad either way. Your reasons for voting me are all 12 hours old. It seems a very convenient time for you to bring those up now that there are a couple of other votes on me. On June 25 2013 13:13 Xzavier wrote:
OMGUS more Still pathetic. Make a real case or eat rope. If there will be a case then why post this about your gut? Because it's true. If I have a gut read, I do seek to substantiate it with a case to convince other people though. I don't expect anyone else to be convinced by my gut. What about this statement makes you think I couldn't say it as town? (NB. You should be thinking this about any scum read.)
Sure a differance on opinion isnt scum indicative, but you postion on something pro scum and makeing multiple posts on it is. And if you make a case on it and people agree with you because they dont see the reasons could let it happen. You weren't the first person to ask for the reveal so it did have a chance to convince the NN to come forward.
This is ridiculous. You just keep repeating the same thing over and over again. Even if it was a pro-scum position, plenty of people had already said they thought it was a bad idea. I knew when I made that argument that I was arguing against thread sentiment and did it anyway, because I thought (and still think) that that claim would lead to town advantage. You can't say that someone is scum just because they did some stuff which they MIGHT do as scum. You have to find something which they WOULDN'T do as town. Something about the way you type is off, I can't really put my finger on to it. I can't really decide whether you're really town or actually scum doing a good job pretending to be town. If anyone could help me clarify how many mafs/SKs are usually in a 12p game I think I would be able to make better decisions. ... and then immediately backs off when confronted: On June 25 2013 16:13 fyfy wrote:
So basically we're looking at 3 scums here, and its possible for 1 of them to not have a partner (the SK). So what we should be looking for people who are defending a lot of other people as these people will be the ones who likely will use that as an excuse for defending their mafia partner later on in the game ("Oh I defend everyone!").
As for now, I should not have voted so quickly, I apologise.
##Unvote: Aquanim And that's where the trail goes cold. Now, I know this may be a bit embarrassing for Tofu, but that's not my point here. I'm more interested that Onegu and Spicy both defended fyfy with little prompting. I do not view this as early-game scum behavior. Interesting that they both cite StiM as a better target, leading me to personally re-evaluate my thoughts on him. Thread: If you are convinced that either Onegu or Spicy are scum, please put these actions in context and give me your thoughts on StiMaddict.
Post-mortem: Aqua and Tofu have both stated that they do not support my view and think that defending fyfy and pointing at StiM would have been an easy way to generate town cred early.
On June 26 2013 16:23 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 16:11 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
(Quick note, Spicy definitely defended fyfy from Tofu for WAY longer than any sane person would have, much less a mafia. Based on that encounter, Spicy is supertown. I didn't manage to quote the entire exchange in the broken case post, but if you don't believe me, it's pretty easy to find. Just control-F 'Hitler' and work your way backwards.) I beg to differ. Spicy was defending against my accusation that fyfy and Spicy were both mafia. Thus, "defending" fyfy was just an issue of self-preservation. If people think fyfy is town, people think he is town, therefore his obvious self-preservationist instinct would lead him to defend fyfy. This is neither a scum-tell nor a town-tell.
On June 26 2013 16:25 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 16:11 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
(Quick note, Spicy definitely defended fyfy from Tofu for WAY longer than any sane person would have, much less a mafia. Based on that encounter, Spicy is supertown. I didn't manage to quote the entire exchange in the broken case post, but if you don't believe me, it's pretty easy to find. Just control-F 'Hitler' and work your way backwards.) Could you explain to me how defending a townie is a "supertown" move? I see it as a pretty good way for a scum to be seen sincerely arguing something (because they know they're right about a townread), while not actually contributing to finding scum. A quick glance over Spicy's posts indicates to me that all he's saying is "fyfy isn't the scummiest person in the thread" which is a long way from a committment to fyfy being town (which could be inconvenient for scum later). Townies can defend other townies, but scum can do it too IMO.
Spicy simply reiterates that he believed StiM was the better target (which I think most agreed with at the time.)
On June 26 2013 22:09 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Just caught up on the thread from the start of the night post.
@hurricane: i was planning on posting my thoughts on why the aqua vote was bad but i got caught up with my defense of xzavier and then real world work. A quick summary for why i thought it was bad was because xzavier's "case" was weak as already noted, onegu didnt really add much with his vote other than he doesnt like aqua's gut feeling. Nothing felt convincing really. I haven't filter dove aqua yet so ill probably do that day 2.
Your play has stepped up a TON since the time i put my case on you and it has frankly been a lot more townie than i expected.
As for the whole fyfy/stim thing. I've said all along that i thought at the time that stim was a better target as the lurkers werent equal with stim actually posting during the game. Tofu saw them as equal lurkers so thats why we went back and forth on that point.
As for night actions, in past games when i tried directing blues, they didnt listen to me and ended up doing something better so im not going to do it this game.
|
On June 27 2013 06:50 FirmTofu wrote:
Another point I'd like to make: Scum can change their actions even if they have already submitted them, BUT if either Onegu or hzflank are scum, they will be unable to change whatever actions they have set out for the night(because they have already gone to sleep).
I say we capitalize on this opportunity and throw out a bunch of scum reads so that, no matter who dies tonight, we will have a plethora of information at our disposal to work with on Day 2.
Don't believe everything you read, kid.
|
I'm starting to think that you two don't like each other very much.
@Spicy what's your secondary read? There are still 3 mafia out there, you can't possibly think Tofu is the only one.
If you got Tofu lynched and he flipped town, what would your next move be?
If you got Tofu lynched and he flipped scum, what would your next move be?
|
EBWOP: If you think this information is too sensitive, please defer your answer until after the action deadline.
|
On June 27 2013 07:47 Spicydinosaur wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2013 07:40 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
I'm starting to think that you two don't like each other very much.
@Spicy what's your secondary read? There are still 3 mafia out there, you can't possibly think Tofu is the only one.
If you got Tofu lynched and he flipped town, what would your next move be?
If you got Tofu lynched and he flipped scum, what would your next move be? I've been tunnelling tofu, perhaps too much right now, so i really havn't look at anyone else recently. I do want to look at everyone who voted xzavier because im pretty darn sure at least one scum was on him. I dont want to speculate too much on a tofu flip, all i know is that if he flips town im dead next as we were at each other the most. Beyond that i really dont know right now.
I'd forgive you some inactivity if you wanted a couple hours to go through the filters and try to find some scum. I'm surprised that you don't have more scum reads at this point. I'd like your (NON-TOFU RELATED) insight on the state of the game before the NK (in case you die) so we can operate in Day 2 with more complete information.
The general vibe of the town seems to be that you're volatile but slightly Town. This means your voice means something. Right now, if you died, all we'd know was 'Well, that guy really hated Tofu.' But by now, everyone has formed their opinion on Tofu. There's no point in pursuing him further until we're ready to make serious cases (Daytime).
|
EBWOP: And that goes for all the Townies in here. Briefly think about what your death tonight would mean for the town. Who's the guy who, if you die tonight, you'd say "Gah, I KNEW that guy was Scum!" in the obs chat? Have your opinions changed since you made a bold statement early in the game? Are you leaning toward something right now, but haven't really formed it into a coherent case yet? Once we hit that deadline, you have one hour to get all this stuff out before the mafia shot lands. Names are good.
To organize my thoughts, I will be using the format:
"If I die tonight, town should increase their scum-read on "X" and "Y" because of "Reasons"."
"In case I die tonight, for the record, I believe "Z" and "B" to be very town."
Even this can be useful, in case there is an SK or Vig shot:
"If I do not die tonight, "X" becomes more town to me because of "Other Reasons"."
Statements made before the NK have a special brand of honesty to them. You may surprise yourself by what you write.
|
Xzavier and Chromatically have both tagged Tofu as hard town. That is all I'm going to say on that matter. If you need clarification on why this is relevant to me, you haven't been paying attention.
If I get shot by mafia tonight, I want the town to push hard for either a Spicy or StiM lynch.
Conversely, if I am not the target of a mafia hit tonight, I will view Spicy as town. StiM, probably not so much.
My reasoning on this is that Spicy went at me solo and hard early, and was the last to warm up to me. When everyone had a clear early town read on me, he saw a minor point he could blow out of proportion in my posts, and decided to pounce. Once he realized he couldn't get the town on board for a mis-lynch, he started going after Tofu (another massive Town read). His filter could be explained as an overly defensive, tunnel-y town play, but his recent attitude change could also easily be explained as a scum player who knows I'm going to be shot tonight. Spicy strikes me as the best scum player in their threesome right now, so the other two would likely defer to him to call the shot. I don't think I've been the best townie in the game so far... but I'm up there. Scum Spicy should see me as a threat for my last 48 hours of posting.
Again, if I am not the target of the shot tonight, I will have a Strong Town read on Spicy. All of the material in his filter can be explained in a Town setting (though how he has played so far is definitely not how I play town). If I am not the target of the mafia kill tonight, I do not think Spicy is scum.
In regards to StiM, I believe I've been the only one to push seriously for his lynching. If StiM is mafia, they may view me as the lone annoying threat to one of their members. If they can slay me now, the driving force pushing for a StiM lynch is also dead. He is a person worth considering. And keep in mind, for people citing the 'he always does this' meta: StiM was much more active by this point in the game last game. He is intentionally lurking now. And he's getting away with it.
Alakaslam is not scum. At least he's not mafia. His posting is incredibly chaotic, but there's an authenticity there. I trust him, and think he will be a valuable pro-town vote, even if scum-hunting isn't his strong suit. Be nice to him.
I view LoneMeow how (I suspect) most everyone else views StiM.
I have a town read on Aqua, but that doesn't matter. Everyone in this thread has already made up their mind on Aqua, and me posting about him in my final hour won't change that.
hz and onegu are my worst reads. You're on your own for them until I can collect my thoughts better. I haven't breadcrumbed some secret message about them, so if I'm about to go down, you all have to sort out that mess on your own.
|
On June 27 2013 10:41 Aquanim wrote:
@Hurricane Sponge: I would be awfully careful about drawing conclusions from who the mafia choose to target with their NK. When all is said and done, the scum have control over the NK, and town drawing direct conclusions from who they choose to target may be entirely their intention in choosing that target.
Especially in a case like this where I don't think there's a single obvious target that scum really should shoot, trying to second-guess their reasons for choosing one plausible target over another is pretty heavy WIFOM.
You're right. This is WIFOM to a letter. But I think there are two very obvious targets for the mafia tonight. I was going to post who I thought was safe at the beginning of Night Time, and the list ended up being 8 people long. Then I thought, 'well, this doesn't help the town at all'. Hopefully the mafia screw up and shoot someone else, but if they do they're making a massive blunder.
|
I need to clarify before this locks.
If I die, just investigate Spicy, don't no-brainer him. I could get shot for my aggression on StiM. Aqua is right (about trying to derive motivation from NK's). Just know that those two would be the suspects I'd pursue first if I were killed.
|
And alakaslam, if I die, listen hard to Chrom. He won't screw with you.
|
Yeah, that was the shot. Ffffffffuuuuuuuuu-
|
|
|
Makes sense. You had to see it coming.
|
Spicy is town. This is a winnable game. It's super bad luck that our best role happened to be our most skilled player (easily drawing the mafia shot), but the game is close to being figured out. I guess I'll start the wagon, if no one objects.
##Vote: Onegu
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
